More falls today for big iron and gas but the hope is still plain as spreads between local and international prices widens. BHP is down sharply -3.2% but above recent lows, RIO is down -3.1% also above recent lows, but FMG has cracked today finally down -5.2% and in free fall once more despite Dalian opening flat:
FMG is looking rather like it is reforming its bearish descending triangle pattern and if it falls through $1.60 or so the chart suggests it’s way to the GFC low at $1.11 and thence oblivion:
For the two big miners, it is clear that local prices are outperforming their ADRs and foreign listings. For BHP this is after years of under-performance owing to the high dollar:
But not so much for RIO which is kind of odd and suggests that perhaps the army of local investors buying for yield are supporting the stock and are in for a very nasty shock:
Both miners are on the way to 2003 prices in my view.
Big gas is also trying to hang on with falls minimal today despite Brent carnage. WPL and OSH are down just -0.5%, STO and ORG are both up 0.4% and LNG is fast disappearing at -4%:
I see both STO and ORG as struggling to survive but right now it looks to me like WPL is the new RIO of gas, given it is massively out-performing the underlying commodity, with big further catch-up falls possible:
The answer to the article question, then, is all of the above have further to fall.
