China Economy

China has released its official house price data and the news is accelerating falls in September.

From  Adam Carr today: Consider that in 2014 the Chinese economy is expected to show the largest expansion on record; GDP set to rise by nearly $1.5 trillion (on a PPP basis) after a $1.37 trillion lift last year.

An uninspiring Flash PMI for China in October is out at 50.4 points, up slightly from 50.2.

A few extra charts this morning from the CBA commodities team gives an insight into just how fast the Chinese economy is moving way from Australia.

Joe Hockey is finally making some sense on commodities, from the AFR: Treasurer Joe Hockey warned ­Australia must prepare for any short-term pain from Beijing’s efforts to deflate the country’s “housing bubble”.

Cross-posted with permission from George Magnus.

Here’s a more positive read (for the world) on today’s China data from Capital Economics via the SMH blog: We won’t get the full breakdown of GDP by industry until tomorrow but we suspect that the slowdown remains heavily concentrated in the real estate sector, which grew a mere 2.0% y/y in Q2.

After a lot of hand wringing in various quarters, Chinese September QTR GDP has come in at 1.9% and 7.3% year on year, slightly ahead of expectations: It is the lowest print since the GFC but the slowing is very gradual.

The Wall Street Journal has a report from the Conference Board on a slowing China: China’s growth will slow sharply during the coming decade to 3.9% as its productivity nose dives and the country’s leaders fail to push through tough measures to remake the economy, according to a report expected to come out Monday.

This pretty much sums up the MB view, from the AFR: AustralianSuper, which has $80 billion under management, believes asset prices in China will be hit when credit is eventually tightened and will stay on the sidelines until this adjustment is over, according to its senior manager for Asia, Stephen Joske.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China’s September inflation is out and has sunk to its lowest level since the GFC at 1.6%, miles below the official target of 3.5%.

From CLSA: Our monthly CRR cement report forecasts accelerating recovery in home sales and a bottom for the property construction slowdown as property purchase restrictions continue to loosen.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Bloomie: Hong Kong unexpectedly overtook the U.S.

Chinese trade data for September is out and is mixed.

From Mac Bank: Nine out of eleven developers that have reported September sales showed a MoM increase.

The Chinese attack upon the dodgy money inflating Western property markets looks set to turn more serious.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Media conjecture on Golden Week real estate sales continues with a less posistive tone (with the help of Investing in Chinese Stocks): Beijing Golden Week Sales Down 40%, In Line With 2014 Drop.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.