Australian Property

Via Australian Broker: Over the last week ten institutions have changed their interest rates to home loan products, with a total of 53 product level changes recorded.

Via the AFR: ARCO fund manager George Colman says he is cautious on the Australian economy and is warning of a “slow-motion property market crash”.

By Leith van Onselen With the recent release of the ABS’ lending finance data for May, it’s an opportune time to once again chart how capital city house prices are tracking against both investor and total housing finance.

By Leith van Onselen Back in May, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) released forecasts showing that housing starts would fall 17% in total to 2020: Now, BIS Oxford Economics has projected that housing starts will fall 22% from 2018’s estimated figure of 219,000 to 171,350 in 2020.

Behold.

Via Domainfax: …A spike in auction clearance rates for Sydney this week – which shouldn’t be read as permanent improvement – was due to more apartment sales at the $750,000 median price point in the city, inner south and lower north shore areas.

Via Domainfax: Australia’s version of the sub-prime crisis that ushered in the global financial crisis could be looming, with a significant number of the 1.5 million households with interest-only loans likely to struggle with higher repayments, experts warn.

CoreLogic released its auction report yesterday, which reported a rebound in the preliminary national auction clearance rate to 60.6% from 55.9% last weekend (later revised down to 52.0%), albeit on lean volumes.

Via Gottiboff today: The credit squeeze being imposed by the Australian banks and the surprising changes in China are rewriting the rules in the Australian dwelling market — particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

Via YourParasite: Despite the market being hard for millennials to break into, a lot of young homebuyers were able to secure a property with the help from their parents.

Via the AFR: Villawood Properties boss Rory Costelloe says builder rebates – or “secret commissions” – have returned to the Melbourne land market.

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, Dr Bob Birrell and Dr Ernest Healy from The Australian Population Research Institute (APRI) published an excellent report explaining the deleterious impact Australia’s mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy has had on housing affordability in Sydney and Melbourne.

By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic has released analysis on the change in house and unit values over the past decade throughout each of Australia’s largest sub-state regions (best known as SA4).

By Leith van Onselen Australian Finance Group (AFG) has released its housing finance data for the June quarter, which registered a seasonal quarterly rise in the number of mortgage applications, but with applications falling heavily over the year.

In this episode of the MB Fund weekly webinar, Economist Leith Van Onselen and Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith join Damien Klassen and Tim Fuller as they deconstruct the Australian Housing Market.

Via Bloomie: That’s the consensus from a Bloomberg survey of 15 economists, over a third of which have turned more pessimistic within the last three months.

It’s not seasonal, either, via S&P: Arrears on Australian prime home loans increased in May. The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages rose to 1.38% in May from 1.36% in April, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings.

Via the AFR: Financial Review Rich Lister Nigel Satterley, the country’s biggest private residential land developer, is changing his development strategy amid growing concerns about the stability of the housing market and the emergence of speculators in Melbourne.

By Leith van Onselen We noted on Tuesday how Sydney investors are facing the twin shock of both falling prices and rents.

Pants pooing has become a common pastime for specufestors: Over the past week, four separate lenders have announced their exit from the SMSF lending space, with a further two banks saying loans will no longer be offered to SMSFs.