Australian interest rates

We know it’s not real because the RBA says so.

Via The Age and the great work of Richard Baker and Nick Mckenzie: The night before the May 2009 story came out, then deputy governor of the Reserve Bank, Ric Battelino, rang The Age’s investigative team.

Its plunge into investor mortgages is a source of much amusement: In it went the moment APRA lift the 10% speed limit (actually a bit before that).

So says a humiliated Wayne Byers, via Banking Day: A more frequent use of sanctions by APRA is on the cards, the regulator’s chair, Wayne Byres, told the banking royal commission yesterday.

Via Banking Day legend, Ian Rogers: Two RBA companies are finally exposed as guilty – convicted way back in 2011 – for their role in a conspiracy to bribe foreign officials.

From Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor RBA (Financial Markets): Introduction Good afternoon, and thank you to the Australian Securitisation Forum for their invitation.

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirm the confident approach we have seen in the recent Statement on Monetary Policy.

Via Art Berman: Crude markets had a panic attack in August and September that sent prices soaring.

Via ANZ: We have revised our housing price forecasts.

RBA Governor Phil Lowe last night: Thank you for the invitation to address CEDA’s annual dinner.

RBA bulls in full charge: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that growth in Australia’s major trading partners had been robust in 2018.

At last MB and Professor Warwick McKibbin agree, from a nice piece by Adam Creighton: Guy Carson, chief investment officer at asset manager Quick Brown Fox in Sydney, warns that the bigger economic risk isn’t price falls but the volume of transactions.

Haven’t seen the note.

We know all of the dry tinder.

From RBA deputy chair today: Assessing the Effects of Housing Lending Policy Measures Today I will summarise the Bank’s assessment of the various measures put in place to address the risks around housing lending. I will draw on Chapter 5 of the recent Financial Stability Review (FSR).

Paging the RBA!

So says CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless in a well considered argument at the AFR: Tim Lawless of housing data firm Corelogic said that for “the first time in forever” there was a potential split among top regulators that make up the Council of Financial Regulators in how to deal with a declining property market.

Oh boy.

AUD is down today as Aussie data weighs: Aussie bonds are getting flogged.

The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy is out and has chicken hawked it (rather sensibly) not raising the outlook much if at all: It remains in Futureboom!

Alan Kohler podcast: Shane Oliver is right on 20% Sydney/Melbourne housing correction; economy to sink; banks very stretched; RBA to cut in 2019.