Australian Economy

By Leith van Onselen The media is full of condemnation of yesterday’s nonsensical employment numbers released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which registered the biggest ever month gain in jobs (+121,000) but contradictorily no change in the total number of hours worked.

“Mad” Adam Carr today claims his jobs prize: There was at least one alarming feature flowing from yesterday’s jobs number: The seeming inability of the nation, well the nation’s commentators, policymakers and economists, to celebrate what was in truth a fantastic outcome.

As Australia enters the post-mining boom era it’s central challenge is to lower the real exchange rate to restore competitiveness to the economy.

Chris Weston, Chief Market Strategist at IG Markets The news flow from all parts of the capital markets are about fascinating as we have seen them for some time, and for those who are short-term focused, we have much more favourable conditions.

By Leith van Onselen As summarised earlier by Houses & Holes, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released labour force data for the month of August, which registered a sharp retracement in the headline unemployment rate to 6.1% from a 6.4% in July.

At least by the tweeters:   The ABS puts it down in part to more survey rotation: The statistics bureau said today that the increase in part-time employment was driven by factors including a change in the survey group.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its August Labour Force survey and the news is berserk: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 121,000 to 11,703,500.

From Fairfax: A man feared to have contracted the potentially deadly Ebola virus is being rushed to the Gold Coast University Hospital, according to reports.

By Leith van Onselen Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA) has struck a new pay deal that will see wages frozen and pay rates slashed for newly employed workers.

From Westpac: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose 2.1% in Sep following on from a –3% decline in Aug,–0.3% in Jul and –1.1% in Jun.

By Leith van Onselen Federal Communications Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, last night labelled the Coalition’s proposed draconian copyright laws a failure and claimed the Government needs to return to the drawing board.

There’s nothing like a soothing long term view from Bloxo to calm rattled nerves.

Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment Index sank by 4.6% in September from 98.5 in August.From Bill Evans: This is a surprising and disappointing result.

Iron ore is going to $70 sooner rather than later.  The oversupply in the market is big but is headed for huge, somewhere between 200 and 300 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) capacity within eighteen months.

From Westpac: There are many business surveys out there and most have questions, in some shape or form, that are applicable to the labour market.

The NAB Business Survey for August is out and retraced: The strong improvement in business conditions recorded in July was short lived, unwinding significantly last month. The business conditions index dropped 4 points in the month (following a 5 point increase in July) to +4 index points.

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index rose marginally in the week ended 7 September, rising by 0.7 points (0.6%) to 113.3, taking it just above its long-run average reading of 113.2 (see next chart).

Yesterday I wondered what further pork would get served up in the attempt to get uneconomic Galilee coal moving.

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its business confidence survey for August, which registered a 2.5% decline over the month to be 14.8% below the peak recorded in October 2013 following the federal election, and 1.7% below the average of the last four years (see next chart).

The modest recovery in ANZ job ads continued in August up 1.5%.