Australian Economy

Via DEEWR:    Luke warm labour market if anything cooling.

From Morgan Stanley: We expect Australia will lag the global rotation from monetary to fiscal easing, with the Mid-Year Budget update still focused on austerity and preservation of the sovereign AAA-rating.

From some Domainfax bloke: It is tempting to explain the crisis in Australian democracy as reflecting the same forces that installed Donald Trump in the White House and removed Britain from the European Union.

The MYEFO remain center-stage today as we wend our way through Australia’s grey-beard commentary responses.

From The Australian: The demise of Alcoa’s Portland aluminium smelter would rob $800 million from the national gross domestic product, devastate Victoria’s southwest and threaten jobs as far away as Western Australia, according to a new report.

You will cheer up and buy a property or you will be exterminated: Reading Edward’s thought-provoking and deeply reassuring paper throws up the following reasons for optimism.

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s ABS labour force release for November revealed a further rapid deterioration in labour market conditions for those aged 15 to 24 years old.

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s labour force data for November, released by the ABS, once again highlighted how male workers have borne the brunt of Australia’s labour market adjustment towards services.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), a federal government body, has released alarming new statistics showing that Australians are accessing homeless services in record numbers: The report, Specialist homelessness services 2015–16, shows that national client numbers reached over 279,000 in 2015–16 (up from nearly 256,000 in 2014–15).

By Leith van Onselen The ABS released its Australian demographic statistics for the June quarter of 2016, which revealed that Australia’s overall population growth rate has accelerated led by unprecedented growth in Victoria, which has smashed all records.

By Leith van Onselen As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for November, which registered a 39,100 rise in total employment but an increase in the headline unemployment rate to 5.7%.

November Labour Force is out and has shown rebound after recent bad months: Employment increased 39,100 to 11,973,200.

The Do-nothing Coalition government is ending the year on a roll, from Domainfax At a shambolic press conference in Cherbourg overnight, Mr Pyne shut down questions directed to Mr Guillou about the embarrassing leak, which was revealed in the Australian media after a tip-off by a staffer to South Australian senator Nick Xenophon.

From Westpac’s Bill Evans: The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 3.9% in December from 101.3 in November to 97.3 in December.

By Leith van Onselen The AFR has reported today that the Turnbull Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) will include the creation of a taskforce aimed at combating the cash economy, which is estimated to account for around 1.5% of Australia’s GDP, which equates to roughly $21 billion.

By Leith van Onselen The latest Roy Morgan Research (RMR) unemployment estimate for November registered no change in unemployment (still 9.2%), with the unemployment rate also steady over the year.

By Leith van Onselen Let’s recall former Treasury Secretary, Ken Henry’s, stark warning that Australia must undertake a massive infrastructure building program in order to avoid being choked by rapid population growth (immigration): “The Australian population is growing by something like 400,000 a year.

From David Uren: Scott Morrison is ruling out the use of cash handouts or other budget stimulus measures to support the economy, amid differing views between two of the government’s top mandarins.

The NAB November business survey is out and is still fading: Confidence hanging in as conditions and profits fade.

Some pretty cool stuff here from Deutsche’s Tim Baker and Joseph Kim:  Equity markets have tracked data surprises over the past year. With data surprises now around a four-year high, there’s risk that normalization could undermine equities. (Chart 1).