Chartfest: 20-21 August, 2022

Australia & New Zealand   Kiwi Houses   Oz Current Account and Externals   Oz Gas – consumption and production   Oz Private Investment   Oz Wages   Oz Wages 2   Oz Wages and Underutilisation Americas Americas – Central Bank Rates   Consumer Confidence – Latin America Selected   US Capacity and Inflation  

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Weekend Reading: 20-21 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Monkeypox vaccine maker can’t keep up with demand as case numbers swell – CBS Hundreds of Google workers demand abortion protections, data privacy – PBS Big prarma should brace for worst cancer outcome – Reuters Bank Stocks Make a Comeback – WSJ Wall Street Bets the Fed Is Bluffing


Macro Afternoon

A really mixed end to the trading week with Asian stocks not moving around much at all, inline with the lack of volatility on overnight markets. The USD remains very strong against the majors, with Yen halting its slide due to the higher than expected Japanese inflation print while the Australian dollar remains on the


A deep dive on the economy, politics and Australia’s housing market

On Tuesday night, I had a fabulous discussion with Martin North on the Australian economy, the state of politics and policy making, and Australia’s housing market. Key topics included: The Albanese Government’s upcoming increase in Australia’s immigration intake to record levels, and what it means for the economy and living standards. The idiocy of growth


The calm before the international student storm

The latest Overseas Arrivals and Departures figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that international student arrivals have failed to rebound following the reopening of Australia’s international border late last year. Only 35,110 international students arrived in Australia over the quarter – down significantly from the decade average of 98,000 quarterly arrivals: Over


Australian company insolvencies jump

Deloitte Access Economics’ Weekly Economic Briefing examines Australian company insolvencies, which jumped 23% year-on-year in June as companies grapple with high inflation, rising interest rates, shortages and a slowing global economy. The good news, however, is that insolvencies are still tracking below pre-COVID levels; although that will likely change over the year ahead: The average


Fed still hawkish

JPM on the Fed minutes. —————————————————————————————————————— The main messages from the July FOMC meeting minutes were the same ones that Powell conveyed after the meeting: Ongoing increases in the funds rate would likely be appropriate, the pace of hikes would slow “at some point,” and the Committee will be data dependent in determining when that


Migration Council Chair demands cheap visa flood

The ACTU’s brilliant submission to the upcoming Jobs & Skills Summit demanded that all temporary skilled migrants be paid at least average weekly full-time earnings: Increase the Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT) – the salary floor for temporary skilled migrants – to Average Full Time Weekly Earnings (approx. $90,916.80 at November 2021) to be indexed


Gas cartel plays dead

The gas price is hanging around $19Gj again today as the cartel calculates that that is low enough to take the heat off it during ADGSM negotiations with the captured Resources Minister Mad King. Power prices have thus fallen back too and at these prices will raise utility bills by about one-third over the next


Coalition PC lackey blames low productivity for poor wage growth

In 2018, I lamented how the “esteemed government organisation – the Productivity Commission (PC) – is facing politicisation, with Treasurer Scott Morrison appointing former Liberal Party staffer, Michael Brennan, to head the Commission”: Brennan is a former staffer to former Liberal Finance Minister Nick Minchin and also served in that role for former Victorian Liberal


Below the surface, bear market rally deteriorates

The Market Ear with more terrific charts. Big vols are moving higher JPM currency volatility index has moved sharply higher. VIX is so far “unimpressed” as equities are focused on the upcoming expiration and people are trying to figure out how much more the systematic players will buy… Refinitiv The trend in bond volatility Volatility


HIA forecasts housing construction bust

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has updated its dwelling starts forecasts, which now tips a steady decline in detached house construction all the way to 2024 on the back of rising interest rates and high construction costs: It is anticipated there will have been 131,730 detached starts in 2021/22. This is just 6.7 per cent


MOAR China stimulus to no effect

This: Chinese banks will likely trim their benchmark loan prime rates Monday for the first time in months to help spur borrowing demand and reverse a sharp slump in consumer and business sentiment. The one-year loan prime rate — the de facto benchmark lending rate for banks –is expected to be cut by 10 basis


Macro Morning

Risk markets absorbed the latest inflation print from Euro-land overnight following strong UK inflation numbers in the previous session with the USD surging against everything as a result. Wall Street is uneasy still with initial jobless claims numbers printing a little higher than expected. The Australian dollar was pushed much lower, currently hovering at the


Albo follows Rudd’s ‘Big Australia’ immigration plan

The similarities between the Albanese Government and the former Rudd Labor Government are uncanny. Both came to power following a long stint in the political wilderness and initially rode a wave of strong popular support. And both quickly established national summits to ‘solve’ the nation’s problems: The Rudd Government’s Australia 2020 Summit was a two


RBA rate hikes sink Aussie house prices

CoreLogic’s weekly Australian house price index, which tracks value changes across the five major capital cities, fell another 0.37% in the week ended 18 August – the 15th consecutive weekly decline: The decline in values was driven by the three largest capital cities, namely Sydney (-0.5%), Melbourne (-0.34%) and Brisbane (-0.39%): So far in August,


Links 19 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Electric Car Prices Spiking Due To Rising Costs And Demand – Inside EVs On the corrupt $280 billion CHIPS handout to semiconductor oligarchs – IBO News Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases substantially – CNBC OPEC not to blame for soaring inflation, new chief says, citing


Macro Afternoon

The selloff from overnight markets has proven contagious here in Asia with drops across the boards, led by Japanese shares. The USD remains very strong against the majors with the Australian dollar about to break the 69 cent level on the mixed unemployment print while Euro has given up all its meagre gains as it


Dan’s Suburban Rail Loop strangles Victorian Budget

To nobody’s surprise, the cost of building Melbourne’s suburban rail loop has doubled to $125 billion, with another $75 billion projected for operating expenses. That’s according to the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office: According to the state parliament’s budget office, which published a report overnight, the north and east sections of the rail loop could blow