International student numbers fail to rebound

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Despite cratering entry requirements for international student visas, student numbers have failed to launch after the international border was reopened late last year.

According to a snapshot taken on 27 June by the Department of Education, Skills and Employment, published in The Age, there are 414,954 holders of Australian student visas, of whom 109,773 are offshore – many of whom are Chinese.

The latest overseas arrivals data for May, released yesterday by the ABS, also showed that only 32,400 international students arrived in Australia over the quarter – down massively from the decade average of 98,000 quarterly arrivals:

Quarterly international student arrivals
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Over the year to May 2022, only 66,340 international students arrived in Australia – down massively from the 609,000 annual arrivals in May 2019 and the 500,000 that arrived in the year to May 2020:

Annual international student arrivals

Australia is facing growing competition for international students from nations like Canada, which have increased their working rights and access to permanent residency. Accordingly, Australia is no longer viewed as a preferred destination for international education.

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Given the overwhelming majority of Australians do not support a return to mass immigration, most will be satisfied with this situation. Lower international student arrivals means the federal government’s insane 240,000 net overseas migration target will be harder to achieve.

International education has become the major funnel for Australia’s immigration program. Many students came here primarily for work rights and permanent residency, rather than for education purposes.

In short, universities became the ‘middle-men’ to Australia’s immigration system, behaving like migration agents and running degree factories to maximise student fees. They lowered entry standards to maximise student numbers, and the end result was a lower quality system.

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International student numbers should never be allowed to return to their ridiculous pre-pandemic levels.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.