Via Chris Uhlmann comes a rare voice of sanity: What is it that terrifies the people of Hong Kong about the Chinese Communist Party that eludes so many pliant Australian academics, business leaders and ex-politicians? In the same breath, some local cognoscenti lament the Australian government’s weakness in barely mentioning the troubles in the Chinese
Not that you’d know it from the LNP cheer squad: The government is piling pressure on Anthony Albanese to pass its full tax cut agenda when parliament resumes in July, with Finance Minister Mathias Cormann declaring the Opposition Leader would be holding on to “the politics of envy’’ rejected at the election by not backing
Via DEEWR:
Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose slightly from –0.49% in April to –0.45% in May. Expectations index (–0.15ppts). The Index growth rate has been consistently negative
Via Bloomie: The Aussie will extend this year’s decline and probably fall as low as 65 U.S. cents next year, said Craig Vardy, head of fixed income for Australia in Sydney at BlackRock, which oversees $6.52 trillion. The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep easing as the economy cools and U.S.-China tensions weigh on global
Via the ABC comes Philip Gall, chair of the Owners Corporation Network. I write this piece as one of the lucky apartment owners. Lucky not because I managed to break into the apartment market, but because I survived it financially intact. In 2008 I purchased a two-bedroom apartment in a six-level complex near a good rail
Witness the businomics ideology go to work. At The Australian: Debt across Australia’s states will explode by more than $100 billion, as governments boost spending on infrastructure and public servants at the same time their budgets are being sideswiped by weak GST revenue, slowing economic growth and plunging stamp duty revenue. An analysis of this
I bid them adieu pre-election and now they are back. Via News: Queensland tradie Norbert Kaess bought his first property at just 20 years of age — and he’s never looked back. He snapped up a three-bedroom, one-bathroom house in Townsville for $175,000 in 2016 after saving for about a year beforehand. The 10 per
Here is the problem, via The Australian: AGL Energy says big gas users on the east coast face years of elevated prices, with the high cost of moving Queensland gas to southern states, expensive LNG imports and developing new domestic supplies locking in high tariffs for industrial buyers. Australia’s biggest electricity generator — working to
It is the boom without cease. All time new highs for Aussie bonds overnight: And the slope is still flattening: Spreads to the US were mixed: JPM’s Sally Auld says the long end is headed below 1%, my own call from six months ago: The RBA delivered a 25bp rate cut this week, as expected.
Spot through the roof. Paper tore it off. Steel is still stalled. Rebar inventories for mid-June are now above last year in the first sign that steel mills are over-producing, a warning for steel prices and the bulks bubble: Dalian’s nutso performance overnight was reflection of the wider risk rally. If the ECB can cut,
DXY was firm overnight as CNY popped but EUR sank: The Australian dollar lifted against DMs: But could not keep pace with EMs: Gold tried again to break out: Oil jumped: Metals jumped: Big miners jumped: EM stocks jumped: High yield jumped: The Treasury curve was trashed: Bunds went nuts: Aussie bonds went nuts: Stocks
“Tiny homes are an Orwellian rebranding of the systematic exclusion of younger generations from home ownership”. What a great quote that is. What smart cookie came up with that? Some bloke named David Llewellyn-Smith on ABC radio yesterday. Full interview here: They should get him on more often.
The Communist Party of China has turned deeply irrational. We’ve seen it paint itself into a corner on a trade deal, massively overreach in Hong Kong and now it is readying to push the trade war into commodities. Via Zero Hedge: During a Monday press conference, the Chinese NDRC said it was developing new state
Leith is busy putting together his critique of the NSW Budget, which has added some terrifically ill-timed austerity to the NSW economy. In the meantime Moody’s has delivered this clangor in its assessment: Despite the housing market correction delivering a sharp decline in transfer duties, New South Wales’ 2020 budget highlights a continued strong operating
Trade war? No problem. Housing bubble is the answer. Monthly house price data for May had new house prices up an accelerating 0.7% and 10.7% year on year: The breadth is now nearly complete with 68 of 70 markets rising: Including some formerly constrained first tier markets: The raw data: Expect this to continue because,
Via CBA today: Two more rate cuts in 2019 The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp on 4 June 2019 to take the policy rate to 1.25%. We now expect two further 25bp interest rate cuts in 2019 and favour the August and November Board meetings. This will take the cash rate down to
Via S&P: Australian prime home-loan arrears rose in April, according to a recently published report by S&P Global Ratings. The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages, rose to 1.53% in April from 1.51% a month earlier. Arrears in April were up 17 basis points year on year. Arrears were mostly up
Via the Lunatic just now: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion by noting that the data on the global economy released since the previous meeting had been mixed. GDP growth outcomes for the March quarter in some economies had been slightly stronger than the second half of 2018, while labour markets had remained tight.
Via the ABC: Developers are offering special deals like paying 12 months of a buyer’s mortgage, $50,000 “bonuses” and even furniture vouchers in a bid to help clear Sydney’s apartment glut. An oversupply of apartments, falling property prices and restrictions on foreign investors mean developers have turned to targeted social media campaigns in a bid
The Lunatic RBA cookie cutter spawns another relentless bull in Jonathan Kearns, Head of Financial Stability Department: Thank you to the Property Council for asking me to speak at this Property Leaders’ Summit. I want to address an important issue for the property industry – the rising rate of housing loan arrears (Graph 1). Why is it that
The gloves are off now. All UBS said was: But that’s the end of a big bond deal with China Railway Construction Corporation because, well, just because. Via the FT: … cultural sensitivity is important for any multinational. But it is an absurdity to translate an innocent English phrase in a certain way and then
Awesome stuff from CA: Ten million taxpayers will have to wait for July 1 tax cuts, with Centre Alliance declaring the legislation is not “urgent” and is unlikely to pass when Parliament returns. The prediction effectively torpedoes hopes that the $1080 tax cuts the Prime Minister promised during the election will quickly pass Parliament –
Via the AFR: From Monday, NAB said it was introducing new guidelines for Bank of Mum and Dad that “complements the law and, in some areas, sets higher standards”. …Under NAB’s new controls, loan guarantors will face improved scrutiny of their suitability by providing more information about how it will impact their finances and awareness
Via CoreLogic comes the leading mortgage index: The post -election rebound still looks firm if not tearaway. Stock on market is still high by new listings are very weak: Full report.
Spot fell. Paper too. Steel is softening. Port stocks continue to drain in China, down to 118.7mt last week: Still just waiting on Vale. Further spikes are possible until Brucutu returns.
I don’t mind a bit of hope. But that’s different to the complete rot that the CSIRO pumped out today: The Australian National Outlook is a new initiative by CSIRO, which is intended to contribute to the evidence base and understanding required for Australia to navigate the complex and often intertwined challenges involved in achieving
DXY was steady last night: The Australian dollar is in free fall versus all major developed economy currencies: And emerging market currencies to boot: Gold was stable: Oil is very weak given the Iran situation and Saudi jawboning: Metals were mixed: Miners were hit: EM stocks hung on: High yield too: The Treasury curve flattened:
More steaming rubbish from Gottiboff today: I have a warning for Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg——many oldies don’t like what you are doing. It all starts with the Reserve Bank, which believes that if it lowers interest rates it will lower unemployment. Ranking second and third are retail and construction. There is no doubt that
Nothing makes my blood boil more than “tiny homes”. Whether it is the buyers or sellers of the sardine cans, acceptance of their existence represents a gigantic failure of the Australian political economy. Those Millennials that Domain so loves to quote as they gasp out a few words from diaphragms crushed between kitchen cabinet and bed,
