David Llewellyn-Smith


Scotty from Marketing rebrands Depression

The Murdoch press is truly nation destroying. Let me be a little more specific. Paul Kelly is truly nation destroying. Having grovelled and crawled his way through months of Morrison Government blundering, today he crowns it all with this little gem: The Morrison government has averted a depression in Australia. This is the most momentous


Consumer confidence obliterated to all-time low

Via ANZ: ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: ‘Future finances’ and ‘inflation expectations’ rose, but we aren’t getting carried away. ‘Current economic conditions’ fell >9% and are down ~50% over 2 weeks, to the lowest ever level. Here’s the longest time series I can find for the Westpac series: Only around 1990 lows. We can lower


Australian dollar rocket flames out

DXY was up overnight: The Australian dollar was roughly stable as the rocket flamed out: But surged against EMs: Gold yawn: Oil is worthless: Which does not bode well for dirt: Miners were OK: EM stocks too: US junk rallied. Not EM: Bonds were mixed: Stocks tacked on gains: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap


Goldman, BofAML: Greenback boom not over

Via Goldman: …without medical breakthroughs of some kind, the next few weeks could be challenging for markets as we price in a deep global recession.”…the Dollar pulled back this week as risk assets rebounded, but our best guess is that the historic rally is not quite over. … the real trade-weighted Dollar has perhaps 3-5% upside


Dodgy Byers declares banks safe

Via APRA’s Wayne Byers today: “In an environment such as this, you want the financial system to be a shock absorber to the broader economy.” “In 2008, the financial system was at the heart of the crisis, and actually amplifying the crisis through the rest of the economy. What you would hope, by building up


Why oil is going to zero

Via Bloomie: American pipeline operators have begun asking oil producers to voluntarily ratchet back their output in the clearest sign yet that a growing glut of crude is overwhelming storage capacity. Plains All American Pipeline LP, one of the biggest shippers of crude in the U.S., sent a letter this week asking its suppliers to


Wuhan flu is about to gut the US

Via Domain: US President Donald Trump has extended his administration’s social distancing guidelines until the end of April, abandoning his goal to have the country running normally by Easter. Trump’s announcement came as the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, predicted that up to 200,000 Americans could die of the coronavirus and millions


ASX bath of blood pushed back

The Aussie dollar is still firm this morning after a brief hiccup: The bond bid is back bigly: XJO is trying hard not to fall: Big Iron is mostly off Big Gas should be at new lows because oil is: Big Gold yawn: Big Banks are trying: Big Realty too: Because you can’t talk down


Battlefield triage arrives in UK

We’ve already seen it in Italy, now the UK, via The Tele: Intensive care for coronavirus patients is now being limited to those “reasonably certain” to survive, a major NHS London trust has conceded. A department head at Imperial College Healthcare revealed on Sunday that fewer and fewer marginal patients are being selected for ventilator treatment because so


Here comes China’s second round shock

Via Bloomie: Since last week, emails from foreign clients have been flooding into export manager Grace Gao’s in-box, asking to delay orders already made, putting goods ready to be shipped on hold until further notice, or asking for payment grace periods of up to two months. Gao’s firm, Shandong Pangu Industrial Co., makes tools like


SloMo loses control as Canberra bubble pops

SloMo has lost control of the narrative, of policy and of the nation. Australia’s elite commentary is ripping in all directions. Some are still hopelessly biased, such as Paul Kelly: Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg are determined to keep open Australia’s productive economy. Morrison criticises those calling for “lockdown” and affirms his goal is to


Australian dollar tears the roof off

The DXY flame out continued Friday night. CNY is still looking dubious: The Australian dollar tore the roof off: Gold is useless: Oil is going down, down: Dirt did better: Miners did not: Nor EM stocks: US junk flew, EM fell: Bonds were uber-bid: But stocks also flamed out: The virus is still out of


CFMEU demands 24 hour virus spread

Via Domain: Victoria’s powerful construction union is pushing for the building industry to be classified as essential when the state moves to a stage 3 shutdown, arguing construction sites should be allowed to operate 24 hours to minimise the number of workers at any one time. The proposal has been backed by Master Builders Victoria


Blathering SloMo folds on schools

After spreading the virus through schools for a month, SloMo has caved, not that you’d know it from all the smoke he’s blowing: “In each of the States and Territories they will be pursuing their own arrangements directly with those schools between now and the end of term. Over the next few weeks, the schools


Deloitte: SloMo stimulus creates debt not income

Chris Richardson taking a shot at redemption: Deloitte Australia has produced the attached document – as a declaration of what Australia needs to do to combat the, in particular, economic and business impacts of COVID-19, and to provide a summary of policy responses across federal and state/territory governments to date. In a nutshell, the Deloitte


REIA demands the rent

From the heart of the swarm: The Real Estate Institute of Australia has already publicly stated that it understands how tenants are feeling at this time and that it has a responsibility and duty of care to look after, not only their interests, but that of the property owners and those managing and maintaining the


Childcare sector on verge of collapse

Via Domain: Four out of five childcare centres are on the brink of collapse and the out of school hours care industry fears it may never recover from the COVID-19 crisis, with both sectors being told they must wait for financial relief until the government orders them to close. The Early Learning and Care Council