Houses and Holes


Recession cracks spread

The Market Ear with more recession cracks. — Winter IS coming Robin Brooks: “Global recession is coming. Longer-term real US interest rates have kept rising and financial conditions have kept tightening, even as recession worries have grown more acute. So the automatic stabilizer for the economy – that real rates stop rising – hasn’t kicked


China’s COVID bounce takes shape, but…

OMICRON has been imprisoned in Xinjiang: Mobility is back Infrastructure is the stimulus tip of the spear: Energy is back: Property has rebounded but developer spreads are signalling no end to the trouble: The PMIs jumped. Pantheon: China’s June PMIs provided an encouraging sign of a strong recovery from the zero-Covid lockdown. The surge in


Australian dollar clings to hope as stocks sink

DXY eased overnight: AUD has a very bearish chart sitting right on key support: Oil cracked: Metals are flaming, free-falling recession comets: Miners too: EM stocks are clinging to the Chinese rally: Junk is screaming doom: The bond bear market is over: Ominously, stocks are now falling anyway: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US



Think you’ve got anonymity using BTC? Think Again. Discover with the story. — Bitcoin’s remarkable growth in value is a curious story. Launched in March 2009 worth $0, Bitcoin reached parity with the dollar in September 2011. In November last year it peaked in value at over $60,000 and at the time of writing its


Oil volatility probes the downside

This is an essential breakdown before any Fed pivot. Recent price volatility has been leaning to the downside so we are getting there barring any further supply shocks. The Fed needs sub-$80 oil and preferably sub-$60 because it’s going to pop the moment it flips. Any lower would shut off US which it will not


Recession cracks widen

Excellent stuff from The Market Ear today. The MB thesis is catching on. — US 10 year update So the 10 year reversed on the huge 3% level a few sessions ago, managed retracing around 50% of the move lower from highs and is now approaching the trend line that comes in at 3.10%. A



More from FTAlphaville today. — Rapidly rising electricity prices should be bad news for cryptocurrency miners, right? Boutique investment house Kuros Associates believes so, having shorted US-listed Microstrategy and Riot Blockchain in spite of being a short term bitcoin bull. Miners “have a big problem [with] the rising cost of energy, and that’s not going


Another stock market headwind emerges

It’s one that readers will be familiar with, even if it’s taken Wall Street a while to catch up. I expect margins to be much worse than this as the everything shortage of 2022 turns to the everything glut of 2023 and pricing power goes bye-bye. Goldman has more. — Profit margins for the median


Australians are done with China

There are always commies, kowtowers and useful idiots floating about the place. The latest fitting one or all of those descriptions is Colin Patrick Mackerras (Mackerras), an Australian sinologist and Emeritus Professor at Griffith University, who appeared in the Chinese propaganda organ, Global Times: GT: In the past decade, Australia’s relations with China have changed


Get set for the earnings crash

The Market Ear sums it well. — The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reading for Q2 is clinging to positive territory, at a +0.3 percent estimate as of Monday’s update. Data Trek: “recent readings have been disappointing and awkwardly close to negative. Let’s not forget that Q1’s GDP has been revised to -1.5 percent. With


Australian dollar smashed by Chinese recovery

DXY was strong last night: AUD was squashed: Oil up! Metals struggled: Miners dead catted some more: Not EM stocks: And junk is on the express elevator to hell with everything else soon to follow: Treasuries were bid: Stocks were smashed: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (est.


Soft or hard landing. Stocks to fall

The always excellent Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley leads us off: Oil, Rates, Rebalancing Lead to a Rally With talk of recession increasing sharply over the past few weeks and culminating with Fed Chair Powell’s 2-day Congressional testimony, markets decided enough bad news had been priced. We also think the sharp decline in both oil


What kind of war did Albo just declare on China?

PMAlbo is warmongering in Europe: Anthony Albanese says it is “critical” that long-term pressure is applied to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine to send a strong signal to China. Speaking in Madrid before attending the biggest NATO summit ever held, the Prime Minister said the 30-member security alliance was well aware that China had been


Just another bear market rally

Just another bear market rally. The Market Ear with the note. — VVIX – inverse panic Believe it or not but VVIX is pretty much back to recent lows, currently printing 88.88….VIX is down over past sessions, but the gap vs VVIX remains huge. Low VVIX does not mean the VIX must collapse as the


AEMO restores power “market”, prices explode

The MSM is preoccupied with the latest culture war today while the meltdown in the core of the Australian economy gets ever worse. On Friday, the geniuses at AEMO restored the National Electricity Market (NEM): AEMO will formally end the suspension of the wholesale electricity spot market in all regions of the National Electricity Market