Houses and Holes

26

Uhlmann: Straya a China pussy

Via Chris Uhlmann comes a rare voice of sanity: What is it that terrifies the people of Hong Kong about the Chinese Communist Party that eludes so many pliant Australian academics, business leaders and ex-politicians? In the same breath, some local cognoscenti lament the Australian government’s weakness in barely mentioning the troubles in the Chinese

0

Leading index remains weak

Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose slightly from –0.49% in April to –0.45% in May. Expectations index (–0.15ppts). The Index growth rate has been consistently negative

9

BlackRock: Australian dollar to 0.65 cents

Via Bloomie: The Aussie will extend this year’s decline and probably fall as low as 65 U.S. cents next year, said Craig Vardy, head of fixed income for Australia in Sydney at BlackRock, which oversees $6.52 trillion. The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep easing as the economy cools and U.S.-China tensions weigh on global

4

Rentier media blames states for infrastructure “debt bombs”

Witness the businomics ideology go to work. At The Australian: Debt across Australia’s states will explode by more than $100 billion, as governments boost spending on infrastructure and public servants at the same time their budgets are being sideswiped by weak GST revenue, slowing economic growth and plunging stamp duty revenue. An analysis of this

18

Return of the Specufestor

I bid them adieu pre-election and now they are back. Via News: Queensland tradie Norbert Kaess bought his first property at just 20 years of age — and he’s never looked back. He snapped up a three-bedroom, one-bathroom house in Townsville for $175,000 in 2016 after saving for about a year beforehand. The 10 per

4

How to fight AGL’s evil empire

Here is the problem, via The Australian: AGL Energy says big gas users on the east coast face years of elevated prices, with the high cost of moving Queensland gas to southern states, expensive LNG imports and developing new domestic supplies locking in high tariffs for industrial buyers. Australia’s biggest electricity generator — working to

4

Moody’s perverse take on the NSW Budget

Leith is busy putting together his critique of the NSW Budget, which has added some terrifically ill-timed austerity to the NSW economy. In the meantime Moody’s has delivered this clangor in its assessment: Despite the housing market correction delivering a sharp decline in transfer duties, New South Wales’ 2020 budget highlights a continued strong operating

10

China fires up the housing bubble

Trade war? No problem. Housing bubble is the answer. Monthly house price data for May had new house prices up an accelerating 0.7% and 10.7% year on year: The breadth is now nearly complete with 68 of 70 markets rising: Including some formerly constrained first tier markets: The raw data: Expect this to continue because,

1

CBA joins rate cut avalanche

Via CBA today: Two more rate cuts in 2019 The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp on 4 June 2019 to take the policy rate to 1.25%. We now expect two further 25bp interest rate cuts in 2019 and favour the August and November Board meetings. This will take the cash rate down to

31

Australian dollar hits new lows as RBA minutes lets doves fly

Via the Lunatic just now: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion by noting that the data on the global economy released since the previous meeting had been mixed. GDP growth outcomes for the March quarter in some economies had been slightly stronger than the second half of 2018, while labour markets had remained tight.

29

Desperate developers throw mothers in with dud apartments

Via the ABC: Developers are offering special deals like paying 12 months of a buyer’s mortgage, $50,000 “bonuses” and even furniture vouchers in a bid to help clear Sydney’s apartment glut. An oversupply of apartments, falling property prices and restrictions on foreign investors mean developers have turned to targeted social media campaigns in a bid

31

Lunatic RBA: Surging mortgage arrears no risk

The Lunatic RBA cookie cutter spawns another relentless bull in Jonathan Kearns, Head of Financial Stability Department: Thank you to the Property Council for asking me to speak at this Property Leaders’ Summit. I want to address an important issue for the property industry – the rising rate of housing loan arrears (Graph 1). Why is it that

24

Bank of Mum and Dad shut down

Via the AFR: From Monday, NAB said it was introducing new guidelines for Bank of Mum and Dad that “complements the law and, in some areas, sets higher standards”. …Under NAB’s new controls, loan guarantors will face improved scrutiny of their suitability by providing more information about how it will impact their finances and awareness

9

Gottiboff: Old people power retail

More steaming rubbish from Gottiboff today: I have a warning for Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg——many oldies don’t like what you are doing. It all starts with the Reserve Bank, which believes that if it lowers interest rates it will lower unemployment. Ranking second and third are retail and construction. There is no doubt that

82

ScoMo takes huge dump with “tiny homes” push

Nothing makes my blood boil more than “tiny homes”. Whether it is the buyers or sellers of the sardine cans, acceptance of their existence represents a gigantic failure of the Australian political economy. Those Millennials that Domain so loves to quote as they gasp out a few words from diaphragms crushed between kitchen cabinet and bed,