Houses and Holes


Fitch: Trade wars and regulation threaten Australia’s house prices

No shit, Sherlock: Housing Risks Re-Emerge Wilting house prices have prompted 50% of Australian fixed-income investors to nominate a domestic housing market downturn as the top risk to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months. While regulations and tighter lending standards have played their part, external threats posed by trade wars also loom and


How high will US interest rates get?

Via Westpac: Though credit spreads in the US are off their lows, they have remained relatively impervious to the heightening global risks surrounding trade and geopolitics. This partly reflects the strength in the US economy which has continued to support corporate earnings. With credit spreads in the US and Australia tightly linked, our spreads have


Time Andrew Bolt rolled over on climate change

Does anyone recall that glorious period for Andrew Bolt when he pounded away at the “myths” of global warming armed with one chart, the infamous “pause”: Mr Bolt remains a denier today but his chart has disappeared. Why? Because ye auld pause was just that, a pause, with temperatures since rocketing higher and confirming the


US-Saudi tensions erupt at the wrong moment

Via Bloomie, this is not what the market needed: Saudi Arabia threatened on Sunday to use its economic clout to retaliate against any punitive measures, hitting back after U.S. President Donald Trump said he could take action against the world’s largest oil-exporter over the disappearance of a government critic. “The kingdom emphasizes that it will


Chinese trade slows

Via Capital Economics: • Exports continued to defy US tariffs last month but imports softened in the face of cooling domestic demand. We expect both to weaken in the coming quarters as economic growth slows in China and among its major trading partners. • Export growth accelerated in September, from 9.8% y/y to 14.5% in


Chris Joye talks nonsense on bonds

Via Chris Joye today: Supposedly smart investors argue there is a long-term negative correlation between fixed-rate bonds and equities that means you should allocate to the former to protect against losses in the latter. As the experiences in February, September and October demonstrate, this presumption is totally wrong. Equities have been smoked while the Composite


Migrants to the bush to fix climate change

Check out this triple somersault with four and half twists from Cities Minister Alan Drudge: Moving migrants into the regions and smaller cities would help fight climate change because congestion in Australia’s largest urban centres will fall, according to Population and Cities Minister Alan Tudge. Mr Tudge appeared on a panel at the University of


CoreLogic: Settlement risk is exploding

Via Tim Lawless: The latest data on the number of dwellings under construction across Australia highlights a growing settlement risk across the Melbourne and Sydney unit markets. The Australian Bureau of Statistics published building activity data this week which showed there were 227,122 dwellings under construction nationally, only slightly lower (0.6%) than the record high


ASX rout resumes: Houses demolished, holes boom

AUD is still strong this morning, partly explained by a falling USD and partly by bullet-proof bulks: Aussie bonds have actually under-performed other nations during the correction. I assume it’s because of the bullet-proof bulks but whatever it is it’s badly misled as the housing crash gathers steam: XJO is down modestly against today: But


Alex Turnbull: Don’t vote Liberal

The free radical is back: I recorded this message for the people of Wentworth. We need to send a message on climate change. This time, don’t give the Liberals your vote. #auspol #WentworthVotes — Alex Turnbull (@alexbhturnbull) October 11, 2018 Certainly freer than dad, at The Australian: “I disagree with Alex. His father disagrees


LNG imports must be stopped at all costs

The AFR offers a useful debate about gas today, though is draws all the wrong conclusions as usual. Its editorial sets the tone under the title “Solution to energy crisis should fall back on the market”: Rather than heavy-handed resource intervention, the best response is to encourage more domestic supply. That means peeling back the


Australia is not in “trouble”. “Australia” is dead.

Says Professor Ross Garnaut at The Guardian: The crisis in Australia’s political system is less about the quality of individual politicians and more to do with the “majority media” and business lobby groups drowning out the independent centre for their own self-interest, distinguished economist, Prof Ross Garnaut has said. Garnaut, speaking during a panel discussion


CBA takes the piss on reform

Via the AFR: Commonwealth Bank has completed only one of 153 tasks it needs to satisfy in order to meet recommendations that flowed from APRA’s special inquiry into its governance, culture and accountability. CBA had submitted evidence of another eight tasks completed from the list of 153. However, the bank missed the August 31 deadline and therefore