If you didn’t laugh you’d pick up a revolver:
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Gas cartel “shitfuckery”
Primary Section
David Llewellyn-Smith
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Europe gets it together…temporarily
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Temporary fiscal union forming. The European Commission (EC) is launching an unprecedented fiscal package of €750 billion (5.6% of GDP) to deal with the fallout of COVID-19. Under the plan, €500 billion will be distributed to member states in the form of grants, while the remaining €250 billion will be available as loans, with the grants not
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New REA index points to rising housing purchases
I can’t vouch for it. It’s a black box. But Cameron Kusher is a good analyst: What is this index about? The REA Insights Weekly Demand Index is a weekly index that looks at the volume of high-intent buyer activity on the realestate.com.au website and app and tracks that activity over time. Specifically, it looks at how users are
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Labor tears itself apart over China
Via The Australian: Former special forces captain Andrew Hastie and Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching will co-chair a new global parliamentary alliance urging governments to adopt a tougher stance against China. The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China has been established across seven national legislatures and the European parliament. It is expected to expand further amid growing international
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Grantham: Market “lost”
Superb as always from the GMO crew: UNCERTAINTY HAS SELDOM BEEN HIGHER Oddly, Neither Has the Stock Market By Ben Inker As we have worked over the last couple of months to understand the likely impact of the pandemic on economies and asset classes around the world, the most striking feature is the extraordinary uncertainty
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Anti-lockdown proponents dills
Could not agree more. At FTAlphaville: When considering which measures are appropriate for tackling coronavirus, and which should be eased first, it’s crucial that we think seriously about the various trade-offs that we are making, and the potential collateral damage wreaked by various strategies. Clearly, there will be massive effects from the lockdowns imposed to
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UQ “manufactured” Pavlou evidence
Via the ABC comes the CCP’s leading university in Australia learning from its masters: An alleged victim of suspended university student Drew Pavlou has rejected suggestions he felt threatened by the anti-Chinese Government activist, and says a complaint involving him was “manufactured”, in an email produced by Mr Pavlou’s lawyers. The revelation came as the University
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Santos to poison NSW for thousands of years as it steals from it
And the outrage goes on, at the AFR: Santos’ $2 billion-plus Narrabri gas project is set to proceed for assessment under NSW’s independent planning process after the lower house of the state government voted down a bill on a moratorium on coal seam gas that controversially secured Labor’s support in the Upper House. Chief executive
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Nev Power’s great gas fakening
It didn’t take long for Nev Power’s boondoggle to descend into farce, at the AFR: Former Fortescue Metals boss Nev Power has distanced himself from plans to dramatically increase public spending on gas infrastructure, saying a leaked document does not represent the view of the government’s COVID-19 commission. A manufacturing taskforce established as part of
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Daily iron ore price update (June risk rises)
Iron ore prices for June 5, 2020: Not much in news. Brazil is still awful: Chia is leveling off at 90% industrial recovery but realty is the main game: UBS offers a few charts that capture where we are: The steel mountain has not adjusted at all so mills could cut production at any time
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Services PMI shows Aussies slow out of lockdown blocks
Via AIG: Given we’ve been reopening for weeks now that’s a pretty slow start. Full report.
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Do robots dream of higher Australian dollars?
DXY is getting belted now as EUR surges into the Great Fakeflation: The Australian dollar hit new highs last night before pulling back: It is murdering EMs: Gold managed a gain but is still disappointing as DXY falls: Oil marches on: Even dirt raised an eyebrow: Miners blast on: The EM stock bid stalled: But
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ME Bank dills face the music
Via Banking Day: A showdown looms this morning between ME Bank’s board and irate shareholders seeking accountability for the ruinous decision to slash redraw entitlements of thousands of its mortgage borrowers. ME’s board is due to meet for the first time since the bank’s reputation was savaged in the first week of May by customers
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How Nev Power rolls
Nev Power has taken to central planning like a miner to iron ore: The National COVID-19 Coordination Commission has detailed priority manufacturing sectors it would like to see developed and expanded without government assistance to the Senate’s COVID-19 Committee. NCCC chair Nev Power said the commission’s manufacturing task force wants to enhance energy intensive manufacturing,
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UBS: Iron ore all about Brazil
Yep. Via UBS: Iron ore appears well-supported by current tightness The iron ore price (62% CFR China) has averaged US$89/t YTD with spot now over US$100/t and above our CY 20e forecast of US$86/t. We are comfortable with our forecast based on 1) a strong recovery in Vale iron ore production which will require a
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Credit Suisse: Housing stimulus “small”
Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Small housing stimulus package. The Federal government is launching a new $688 million housing stimulus package. Selected owner-occupiers looking to build or renovate in 2H 2020 will be able to get a $25K grant from the government. To be eligible, home buyers need to be owner-occupiers rather than investors. They
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Hope for restaurants after all?
Via Open Table: Quick. Open a German franchise.
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ASX fakeflates through 6000
The massively overheated Australian dollar is pulling back a bit this morning: Bonds are bid after last night’s shellacking: XJO has recaptured 6000: On a cool 20x NTM PE, the highest since 1999 and the greatest bubble of all time, until today: Big Iron ore still running and looks positively cheap with Materials on a
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Trump has jumped the shark this time
Republicans are joining the backlash, via FT: The US defence secretary opened a rift with Donald Trump, saying he did not agree with the president about sending the army on to the streets to clamp down on protests that have erupted across the country since the death of George Floyd. Mark Esper’s remarks came amid
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And now for some Chinese QE
Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Executive summary. In this article, we explore some key concepts for understanding the unique plumbing of the Chinese monetary system, as well as some of our preferred tools for asset allocation. Our “deep dive” is motivated in part by recent policy announcements by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) against the backdrop of the
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Daily iron ore price update (Brazil shocker)
Iron ore prices for June 5, 2020: We’ve stalled for now. Chinese indicators appear to have settled at around 90% capacity recovery in everything except building: Brazilian supply remains the key story. Virus to the moon: Iron ore shipments seriously struggling: Vale is going to have to warn again. And other problems: June is seasonally
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Australian dollar flames out as fakeflation backs up bonds
DXY is still falling as EUR blasts off: The Australian dollar finally flamed out but it’s not over: Gold was bashed despite DXY falls. Odd: Oil took a breather: Dirt is still largely uninterested: Miners flew on: Check out EM stocks. Bizarro world as stocks gap towards Nirvana even as they plunge into the virus:
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Philippines re-embraces US troops
Via Reuters: Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has suspended his decision to scrap a two-decade-old troop deployment agreement with the United States due to political and other developments in the region, his foreign minister said on Tuesday, The termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which is central to one of Washington’s most important alliances in
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US commercial property implodes
Check this out: It’s good news of course. Fed will buy it all no questions asked. Buy REITS!
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RBA drops deflationary AUD-bomb on economy
As the Australian dollar’s unruly melt-up continues let’s revisit what the RBA said yesterday: At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points. The global economy is experiencing a severe downturn as countries
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China services PMI jumps but…
Via Markit: Better but it’s still shite. Remember that these are directional indexes so things getting better is pretty meaningless if the base is disastrous, which it is. I’d like see these indexes well north of 60 if we were going to see any kind of v-shaped recovery worthy of the name.
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What would a Biden Administration do to markets?
Time to take the possibility of a dementia president seriously: Here are the key policies affecting markets, material via Politico. Double the minimum wage: There’s broad support among Democratic presidential candidates for doubling the hourly minimum from $7.25 to $15, and then allowing it to rise automatically with inflation, as proposed by House Democrats in
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Labor wowsers lecture households on stimulus spending
Labor is a genuine dill. Via Domain: The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority on Monday said 1.8 million people had so far used the scheme, withdrawing more than $12 billion. Less than one per cent of applications have been rejected. Analysis by credit bureau illion and consultancy AlphaBeta, part of Accenture, shows those using their super
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Mirabile dictu: Australia is officially in recession
No more ducking and weaving and balderdash: We’re in a recession and spruikers like this bloke at AMP can eat it: In the past few days, I visited shopping centres in North-West Sydney. Relishing my favourite burrito and treating myself to retail therapy aside, I wanted to gauge whether consumers are truly cowering at home
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ASX fakeflation melts up
It’s something else now. The AUD is in an unruly melt-up: As the suicidal RBA snores, bonds are selling too: XJO looks positively sober next to the currency. Not long now before it is crushed by it: Big Iron is one of the few in a real-life boom: Big Gas is lagging oil which has