Houses and Holes


Ironically, CBA begs gubmint to force wage hikes

CBA is turning desperate. Following Ian Narev comes Michael Blythe: Australia’s biggest domestic economic risk is a “skewed consumer cycle” and the government may need to step in with a policy on wages, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe says. Normal wage growth is around 3.5 per cent per annum, according to the


Can Australia’s bubble central-planners land softly again?

It’s as obvious as the nose on your face that global markets are beginning to suspect that the Australian property bubble may burst. The reasons are equally clear: prices are stalling or falling; officials have labelled it a bubble; global interest rates are rising; other similar markets in NZ, the UK and Canada are rolling;


Asian LNG customers demand more discounts as we overpay

Via Reuters: After getting Qatar and Australia to lower gas price, India today pitched for flexible terms for LNG purchase including provision of pricing review, flexible take or pay and abolition of destination restriction clause. Speaking at the LNG Producer-Consumer Conference here, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said the global LNG market is undergoing a major


Daily iron ore price update (Xi splat)

Iron ore price charts for October 18, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $61.70. Paper cracked overnight. Steel fell a little. Xi Jinping appears to have disappointed Dalian.  Reuters has texture: Market participants are also watching the Communist Party congress with President Xi Jinping saying China’s campaign against corruption has achieved “overwhelming momentum” as the


Burgess: Sell China parliament to protect tourism

MB prodding appears to have tipped Rob Burgess over the edge on population: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party continues to stoke fears that Australia is becoming “Asian-ised” (whatever that means), and Australian Conservative leader Cory Bernardi complains of the growing threat of “‘influencers’ bankrolled by the Chinese Communist Party”. The antidote to those scare-mongering views is that China’s


Citi: Aussie housing bubble to hit trouble in 2019

Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi’s head of global macroeconomics: The day you finally have enough housing in Sydney is the day I wouldn’t want to be caught with a big mortgage. I think there is a real danger when certain developments have gone on for a long time, and in Australia in particular the combination of high


Mortgage arrears fall in cities, boom in regions

Via S&P: The number of delinquent housing loans underlying Australian prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) fell to 1.10% in August from 1.17% in July, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings. The decline, which is not unusual because arrears typically have fallen in August for the past 10 years, was partly influenced by


Australian leading index slip slides away…

Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slipped from –0.16% in August –0.21% in September. The growth rate remains negative pointing to below trend momentum and a sharp turnaround


Canadian housing entering “severe correction”

Via Bloomie: Canada’s banking regulator released final rules that will make it tougher for borrowers to take on uninsured mortgages, adding to a growing list of measures to rein in the nation’s housing markets. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions announced measures targeting borrowers in the uninsured segment of the mortgage market that has been responsible for


Former NZ PM becomes banker

Work for Merrill Lynch. Become PM. Do nothing about house prices. Ramp immigration. Sell your mansion to a Chinese investor. Then join the bank: ANZ has appointed former New Zealand Prime Minister John Key as chairman of ANZ New Zealand. He will succeed John Judge as chairman as he retires from the board of directors in January,


Labor to take its time on NEG

Quite rightly: “What’s very clear is that the government is scrambling. We have policy on the run. We have an energy policy being put together with strings and bandaids,” shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said Tuesday morning. “What is very clear and has been publicly confirmed by the Energy Security Board, is that this policy that


Banks pull Brisvegas loans as apartments tumble

Welcome to a little credit crunching, via Banking Day today: Suncorp is tightening its lending standards for apartment buyers in the Brisbane property market following recent falls in real estate prices across the city. In a memo sent to Queensland mortgage brokers on Tuesday, the bank said it would no longer accept investment applications for apartments


Labor should back Tunbull’s energy plan

Via the AFR: Labor states – or a future federal Labor government – that pursue more ambitious renewable energy targets than those set under the Turnbull government’s proposed new Reliability and Emissions Guarantee will face more costly reliability standards, which could increase the cost of electricity in their markets. Energy Security Board chairman Kerry Schott


The mystery of the murdered consumer!

Via Domainfax: National Australia Bank’s Alan Oster says it’s not exactly clear why retail sales have been so weak lately, but there are plenty of things likely to be limiting spending growth. Wages growth is still near a record low, utility bills are soaring, and there’s been increasing speculation that interest rates may rise. We also


Has Do-nothing Malcolm “ended the climate wars”?

I am going to do back-flip with a triple pike here. Do-nothing Malcolm has circumvented Tony Abbott on carbon: The Coalition party room has endorsed the government’s new energy plan, despite objections from Tony Abbott and others that the policy still has a component aimed at reducing emissions….Energy retailers will be required to meet standards


Australian CPI preview

Via Westpac: September is a seasonally strong quarter due to the post June 30 price resetting of many administered prices and as such, the ABS seasonal factors moderate our estimate to a seasonally adjusted 0.4%. Key factors in Q3 are: the ongoing grocery competition holding back food prices; the annual repricing of the tobacco excise;