Hard to believe, I know. It was only a few months ago that we were all celebrating the boom of a lifetime but that’s how fast things can turn in the COVID environment. The Fed’s GDPNow measure is almost in contraction now: As we know, China is already at 0.2% as well: Some of the
Fresh from farting its zero-carbon mitigation unpolicy, the Morrison Government today confirms that flatulence will be protected in the national interest: Australia is rejecting a push by the U.S. and the European Union to join a global pact to cut methane emissions, expected to be announced at the crucial COP26 summit in Glasgow which starts
S&P is really warming into its job of being a pro-cyclical agent of destruction: A third of China’s property developers could see their liquidity “acutely strained” in the worst case scenario as weaker sentiment and new regulations weigh on their funding sources, said S&P Global Ratings. More than half of its rated portfolio of Chinese developers are
Yesterday’s Aussie bond action was borderline hysterical as the belly of the course threatens to jackknife into inversion with the long and the RBA’s yield curve control has been obliterated: The US curve was also crushed though its long-end was bid impressively: Spreads to the US blew out at the longer end putting upwards pressure
The coal bubble is bursting like a fat, overcooked sausage. China triggered a rout yesterday with the news that the hoarders are to be beheaded: China’s thermal coal futures slumped to their lowest in more than a month on Wednesday, marking a sixth consecutive day of declines, after the country’s state planner said it would
The ferrous complex was crushed on October 28, 2021 as spot fell, paper fell more and steel is a plunging anvil: The entire ferrous complex is now in an outright crash. Steel has fallen literally off the cliff and blasted through critical price support like it was not there: In my view, steel prices are
DXY eased overnight as EUR gained: Australian dollar rode the inflation panic: While commodities foretold the deflation shock to come: Big miners were thumped: EM stocks have rolled: Junk is still OK: The Treasury curve was hammered: That helped Growth but stocks were soft overall: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap Bank of Canada surprised markets
BTC cheerleader Jack Dorsey called the top for inflation earlier this week: Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening. — jack⚡️ (@jack) October 23, 2021 That’s ridiculous. 2022 is going to bring a deflation shock the likes of which the world has not seen since 2015. Goldman: With used car prices rising sharply again
Morgan Stanley is still making the most sense on Wall Street with daylight second: Over the past few weeks we have discussed the increasing probability for a colder winter but a later start than previously expected. In other words, our Fire and Ice narrative remains very much intact, but timing is a bit more uncertain
The Chinese energy bubble continued to burst yesterday as coking coal futures were put to the sword again: Given the collapse in Chinese steel output, this was the craziest of the energy bubbles. Really, the only reason for its bid was some possible switching from thermal to coking coal in power consumption but that was
The Chinese property developer crisis still shows no signs of easing despite incremental efforts to fix it. Policymakers are applying the CCP jawbone: Chinese authorities told billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to alleviate China Evergrande Group’s deepening debt crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. Beijing’s directive to the Evergrande
The ferrous complex was strong on October 26, 2021 as spot lifted, paper firmed overnight and steel bounced: We appear to be range trading for now though steel not falling helped. But how long can that last as coking is eviscerated, limit down to all new lows overnight: Another interesting coking coal distortion has emerged:
DXY was firm again last night as EUR fell: The UAD had another strong night on today’s inflation print. A big yawn for me: Oil and gold fell: Base metals too on signs China is lifting metals processing output: Big miners fell as well: EM stocks have stalled: Junk bounced: But the Treasury curve looks
Does PM Morrison not see that we can see? Or are his instincts for today’s tribal politics spot on and he knows all that he needs is a fig leaf for followers to hide behind? The Crikey wrap is succinct: Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s long-awaited climate plan, called “The Australian Way”, has no detail and no modelling
Nordea with a snippet: One likely underappreciated driver of so-called supply chain issues stem from demand-side issues. The initial shock from the pandemic depressed demand both for goods and services. However, already by June 2020 US goods consumption had surged way above trend. If you can’t consume services as you’re locked into your apartment –
Sly ScoMo is at it again. While we’ve all been subjected to the great pantomime of the Nats playing climate outrider to burnish the appearance of ScoMo’s climate credentials, the truth behind the scenes is leaked to the BBC: A huge leak of documents seen by BBC News shows how countries are trying to change
Not much change from the smartest guys in the room this week. BofA remains committed to its stagflation blowoff and bust thesis: The Tale of the Tape: liquidity @ record high, bitcoin @ record high, stocks @ record high, labor market quits [email protected] record high, wage growth plans @ record high (Chart2)…bond allocations @ record
Good and bad news today for the Chinese property crash today. It has been a few better days for developer spreads and equity as the PBoC gets busy with its jawbone. Wider financial conditions remain tight: But the demand side of property is seeing easing: As the construction market outright crashes: But hopes that the
The ferrous complex was weak on October 25, 2021 as spot firmed, but paper fell overnight and steel looks to be breaking down: The key chart now is this: China’s immense steel output cuts have protected steel prices so far this year. But underlying demand is so bad that inventories have been stable anyway. Most
Truth is dead and buried. It’s was killed by four blows to the head. The first and worst (also the best) is the internet which is the structural driver. Access to unlimited information has substituted authority, consensus and evidence with identity, fragmentation and narrative. The second and perhaps outright worst is the rise of post-modernity,
DXY firmed overnight as EUR sank: But the Australian dollar rose anyway: Oil was firm and gold lifted: Base metals held on: The key to the evening was energy. Both coal and LNG rebounded: Miners too: EM stocks held on: But the junk rally faded: Treasuries were all over the place: Stocks managed a modest
Goldman with the note: The weak Q3 growth was driven by a number of factors – Covid outbreaks and chip shortages that the government has less control over on the one hand, and property tightening and power cuts that are mostly policy-driven on the other. The September activity data show evidence on the combination of
NSW is rotten, politically. Chris Joye with the note on Friday: Two big dramas playing out this week are the bond market trying to bully Martin Place into tightening monetary policy and allegations that NSW premier Dominic Perrottet’s otherwise remarkable debt retirement fund, which saved taxpayers from a fiscal crisis, has funneled $450 million to
Reuters with the story: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was forced to apply the restraints as a ferocious squeeze rocked the market, with the premium for cash metal spiralling out of control to an unprecedented $1,103.50 per tonne at one stage on Monday as the exchange’s monthly prompt date descended into chaos. The London copper
Via our goods friends at Gordon Johnson Research: Can China Rescue Its Economy from Property? No. The current downturn is driven by demand, not supply. · What’s happening now? China’s economy took a sharp left turn in July. Construction starts down 17% YoY in September, following a 14.6% decline in August. Crude steel production down 21.5% September.
The Chinese energy crisis is cooked. Put a fork in it: On Friday, the NDRC said it held a meeting with large state-run companies including oil refiner Sinopec, aluminium giant Chinalco and steelmaker China Baowu on “rational” energy usage by industry on Thursday and said they should take the lead in energy-saving and carbon reduction.
There’s plenty of talk about the end of the Chinese property crash. There’s plenty of hope for the end. There’s plenty of selling of the end. What is missing is the end. The crash rolls on imperturbed by the madness of men. Actual sales of apartments remain very weak at around 2014/15 levels: Another key
The planet is saved. Hooray: Scott Morrison will attend next week’s climate change summit in Glasgow with a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 after the Nationals agreed to a deal they said would enable them to cushion regional and rural Australia against the effects of the economic transition. Before he leaves on
Careful what you wish for. After years of breathing life into woke-hating, coal-loving loons, the Murdoch press has birthed a Coalition Frankenstein monster: An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows popular support for the Liberal-Nationals falling two points to 35 per cent, the lowest level of support recorded this term. That spike can only
The ferrous complex was manic on Friday 22 October, 2021 as spot firmed, paper went stoopid overnight and steel crashed in the last few days of last week: The key shift is the bursting of the coking coal bubble which is one of the most foolhardy market bids I can recall: The Chinese energy bubble
