Bill Evans of Westpac is serenely cheering on the Lunatic RBA. He needs to wake up. This is a rerun of the errors of early 2008 when a global recession and ginormous deflationary shock were hurtling toward Australia and the Lunatic RBA hiked its way to the moon chasing supply-side price rises it could affect.
The Market Ear with more recession cracks. — Winter IS coming Robin Brooks: “Global recession is coming. Longer-term real US interest rates have kept rising and financial conditions have kept tightening, even as recession worries have grown more acute. So the automatic stabilizer for the economy – that real rates stop rising – hasn’t kicked
The ferrous complex faded on June 30, 2022: At issue was the Chinese PMI. The wider bounce did not translate to steel. Indeed, the Steel PMI was as bad as it gets: Judging from the steel industry PMI surveyed and released by the China Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee, in June 2022,
OMICRON has been imprisoned in Xinjiang: Mobility is back Infrastructure is the stimulus tip of the spear: Energy is back: Property has rebounded but developer spreads are signalling no end to the trouble: The PMIs jumped. Pantheon: China’s June PMIs provided an encouraging sign of a strong recovery from the zero-Covid lockdown. The surge in
While Albo’s cowards are busy protecting a war-profiteering foreign energy cartel, it has fastened itself to household budgets like a foot-long leech to their flesh: AGL Energy has slugged its NSW customers with a $300 annual increase in their power bills as the power giant passes on soaring costs in the national electricity market. The
DXY eased overnight: AUD has a very bearish chart sitting right on key support: Oil cracked: Metals are flaming, free-falling recession comets: Miners too: EM stocks are clinging to the Chinese rally: Junk is screaming doom: The bond bear market is over: Ominously, stocks are now falling anyway: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US
AIG with the release: Metals processing is the canary in the energy shock coal mine (pun intended). Full report.
Think you’ve got anonymity using BTC? Think Again. Discover with the story. — Bitcoin’s remarkable growth in value is a curious story. Launched in March 2009 worth $0, Bitcoin reached parity with the dollar in September 2011. In November last year it peaked in value at over $60,000 and at the time of writing its
This is an essential breakdown before any Fed pivot. Recent price volatility has been leaning to the downside so we are getting there barring any further supply shocks. The Fed needs sub-$80 oil and preferably sub-$60 because it’s going to pop the moment it flips. Any lower would shut off US which it will not
Excellent stuff from The Market Ear today. The MB thesis is catching on. — US 10 year update So the 10 year reversed on the huge 3% level a few sessions ago, managed retracing around 50% of the move lower from highs and is now approaching the trend line that comes in at 3.10%. A
The ferrous complex cooled on June 29, 2022: As noted in recent days, we are seeing a jump in Chines property sales though it is very likely pent-up demand and there are seasonality issues with holiday timing: Now, some are seeing the bottom: The recent comments by Yu Liang, Chairman of property developer China Vanke
DXY launched overnight as EUR swooned on peaky German inflation: AUD was shoved right back to the cliff’s edge: Oil fell though! Metals held on: And miners: EM stocks too: But the bid daddy of them all, junk spreads, are the highway to hell: Despite easing Treasury yields: Which helped stocks to not fall too
PM Albo does not sound like a man readying any kind of appropriate policy response to the Australian energy crisis. On the contrary: “I firmly believe we can solve the biggest challenge of our time, while laying the groundwork for long-term economic security and shared prosperity,” Mr Albanese will say, according to an advance copy
More fuckedcrypto.com from FTAlphaville today. — Rapidly rising electricity prices should be bad news for cryptocurrency miners, right? Boutique investment house Kuros Associates believes so, having shorted US-listed Microstrategy and Riot Blockchain in spite of being a short term bitcoin bull. Miners “have a big problem [with] the rising cost of energy, and that’s not going
It’s one that readers will be familiar with, even if it’s taken Wall Street a while to catch up. I expect margins to be much worse than this as the everything shortage of 2022 turns to the everything glut of 2023 and pricing power goes bye-bye. Goldman has more. — Profit margins for the median
There are always commies, kowtowers and useful idiots floating about the place. The latest fitting one or all of those descriptions is Colin Patrick Mackerras (Mackerras), an Australian sinologist and Emeritus Professor at Griffith University, who appeared in the Chinese propaganda organ, Global Times: GT: In the past decade, Australia’s relations with China have changed
The Market Ear sums it well. — The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reading for Q2 is clinging to positive territory, at a +0.3 percent estimate as of Monday’s update. Data Trek: “recent readings have been disappointing and awkwardly close to negative. Let’s not forget that Q1’s GDP has been revised to -1.5 percent. With
The ferrous complex surged on June 28, 2022: Enough good news out of China’s recent wins against COVID and lifting seasonal tailwinds were enough to trigger the rally. Seasonality can be especially powerful for iron ore so do not overlook that factor. Th next two months are typically very strong before we get crash into
It’s back to tits and giggles for the MSM as the Australian energy crisis intensifies: At the beginning of the year, NEM average prices were under $50MWh. Now they are at $350MWh and still trending higher. If these prices are sustained then it will rip $50bn+ out of the east coast economy as a purely
DXY was strong last night: AUD was squashed: Oil up! Metals struggled: Miners dead catted some more: Not EM stocks: And junk is on the express elevator to hell with everything else soon to follow: Treasuries were bid: Stocks were smashed: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (est.
The always excellent Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley leads us off: Oil, Rates, Rebalancing Lead to a Rally With talk of recession increasing sharply over the past few weeks and culminating with Fed Chair Powell’s 2-day Congressional testimony, markets decided enough bad news had been priced. We also think the sharp decline in both oil
PMAlbo is warmongering in Europe: Anthony Albanese says it is “critical” that long-term pressure is applied to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine to send a strong signal to China. Speaking in Madrid before attending the biggest NATO summit ever held, the Prime Minister said the 30-member security alliance was well aware that China had been
Just another bear market rally. The Market Ear with the note. — VVIX – inverse panic Believe it or not but VVIX is pretty much back to recent lows, currently printing 88.88….VIX is down over past sessions, but the gap vs VVIX remains huge. Low VVIX does not mean the VIX must collapse as the
The MSM is preoccupied with the latest culture war today while the meltdown in the core of the Australian economy gets ever worse. On Friday, the geniuses at AEMO restored the National Electricity Market (NEM): AEMO will formally end the suspension of the wholesale electricity spot market in all regions of the National Electricity Market
The ferrous complex was mixed on June 27, 2022: Not very convincing price action there. Steel is still very soft. Iron ore selling has outstripped most other hard commodities in recent weeks so some sort of snap-back is normal. I have no hard view on whether we go immediately lower again. Seasonal trends are about
