David Llewellyn-Smith


DoleHider accumulates entitlements bomb

Via the AFR: The Morrison government will revamp and extend the JobKeeper program beyond September but struggling business owners are being cautioned to think twice before signing up again because it might send them broke. The small business lobby and the government are aware that workers who have been kept on the books using the


The Chinese Empire goes into retreat

Via Merrick “Mac” Carey, a former senior Capitol Hill aide who is now CEO of the Lexington Institute, a public policy think tank in Arlington, Virginia. Even though the Western mainstream view is that China is a military and economic dynamo that is quickly leaving America behind, the world may be turning against the Middle Kingdom,


Dated NAB business survey lifts

Taken two weeks ago, pre-Victorian lockdown: • How confident are businesses? Confidence rose by 21pts to +1 index points in the month – a third consecutive large increase in confidence. • How did business conditions fare? Conditions rose 17pts to -7 index points – but remain very weak. • What components contributed to the result?


CCP turns Chinese from Australia

Australia’s Chinese boom is basically over. Sure, they’ll keep buying the dirt. But the rest of it is done for. Craig Emerson is rare Labor voice of reason on this: …probably with increasing frequency, Australia will adopt policy positions on foreign influence, cyber security, human rights, the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China’s


And now for a QLD outbreak

As the pollies chase their tails, egged on by Anus Bollocks and his ilk: BREAKING: 18 people now in Queensland are being tested for Coronavirus after attending The Crossroads Hotel in Casula. They are in quarantine awaiting test results. It’s expected that number will rise. @9NewsQueensland @9NewsAUS — Rob Morrison (@RMorrison9) July 13, 2020 #BREAKING:


NSW is going to lock down too

No it’s not, screams The Australian: The NSW government will prioritise economic recovery over pre-emptive lockdowns, even as it slashes the number of people who will be allowed in the state’s pubs and ramps up enforcement against venues flouting the rules. As Victorian health authorities warned that infected travellers visited a string of venues across


Australian dollar tumbles with stocks

DXY was stable last night: The Australian dollar fell against DMs: Did better versus EMs: Gold held $1800: Is oil rolling over? Dirt sure ain’t: Miners were soft: EM stocks were hit: Junk too: Bonds rallied. The US curve is flattening: Stocks fell sharply: The only chart that matters remained in control: Westpac has the


First home buyers should strike!

Back in the good old days when there was such a thing as Australia we saw this: The above headline can’t have escaped the attention of many Australians yesterday. It sat at the top of the SMH, The Age, Brisbane Times and WA Today websites all afternoon. I can’t remember the last time I saw


China drops new credit bomb

China likes to pretend that it’s not unleashing credit stimulus but it is. New yuan loans for June are out and evidence is unequivocal. Total social financing was at 3.43tr yuan with banks accounting for 1.81tr of that: Shadow banks are back in a big way: The surge in new loans is obvious year on


Here comes the oil

Via Bloomberg: Having successfully doubled crude prices over the past few months through unprecedented output cuts, the OPEC+ alliance led by the Saudis and Russia is poised to begin unwinding these stimulus measures. As fuel demand recovers with the lifting of coronavirus lockdowns, the producers are about to open the taps a little. …A second


Labor’s China apologists just dont get it

I was once a great fan of Gareth Evans but not anymore: This would be sensible if it didn’t so comprehensively misrepresent recent history. Australian rhetoric around China has not been hysterical. When Malcolm Turnbull declared Australia would “stand up” against CCP violations of sovereignty he did so because it was necessary. China was busy


World heads into w-shaped depression

Via Capital Economics: Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including the US, UK and euro-zone, where we now expect falls in Q2 GDP to be less steep than we initially envisaged. However, renewed


Eastern Australia pays the highest gas price in the galaxy

Last week the International Gas Union issued its annual report on global gas prices. This is the industry benchmark report that the Australian gas cartel uses to argue in the Australian parliament that Aussie gas prices are reasonable. Here’s the 2019 results: Australia comes in at 18th around $8Gj. This makes domestic Aussie gas the


Malls gutted

Via the AFR: The vacancy rate across the nation’s shopping malls is the highest in more than two decades as the coronavirus crisis accelerates a wave of store closures in a sector already under challenge. The national average shopping centre vacancy rate rose to 5.1 per cent in June from 3.8 per cent six months


Melbourne outbreak sickens Australian dollar

DXY was soft Friday night: The Australian dollar was softer still: CFTC AUD positioning is now perfectly neutral: Gold eased: Oil held on: Everything China is now bubbling. Dirt: Miners: EM stocks even as the virus tears them in twain: Junk: Yield curves are nationalised: US stocks remain something to behold: The SPX/AUD correlation fell


Westpac: Budget outlook collapsing

Via Bill Evans and Andrew Hanlan at Westpac: We have now revised our estimates of the Federal budget deficits for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to $95bn (4.8% of GDP) and $230bn (11.7% of GDP) respectively, amended from $80bn and $170bn. The lift in the estimated deficit for 2019/20 is due to an upward revision to the