Via the AFR: The Morrison government will revamp and extend the JobKeeper program beyond September but struggling business owners are being cautioned to think twice before signing up again because it might send them broke. The small business lobby and the government are aware that workers who have been kept on the books using the
Via Merrick “Mac” Carey, a former senior Capitol Hill aide who is now CEO of the Lexington Institute, a public policy think tank in Arlington, Virginia. Even though the Western mainstream view is that China is a military and economic dynamo that is quickly leaving America behind, the world may be turning against the Middle Kingdom,
Taken two weeks ago, pre-Victorian lockdown: • How confident are businesses? Confidence rose by 21pts to +1 index points in the month – a third consecutive large increase in confidence. • How did business conditions fare? Conditions rose 17pts to -7 index points – but remain very weak. • What components contributed to the result?
Via CBA: CBA household card spending eased over the week to be 7.2% higher than a year ago. The reimposition of restrictions in some parts of Victoria is impacting on many categories of spending in this state. Spending on education remains very weak. This week we take a look at how spending in Victoria is
Australia’s Chinese boom is basically over. Sure, they’ll keep buying the dirt. But the rest of it is done for. Craig Emerson is rare Labor voice of reason on this: …probably with increasing frequency, Australia will adopt policy positions on foreign influence, cyber security, human rights, the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China’s
Pay attention Anus Bollocks: Consumer confidence has fallen for its third week in a row. https://t.co/ffjMUKciZn — David Plank (@DavidPlank12) July 13, 2020 If reopening spreads the virus then the economy dies. Der.
As the pollies chase their tails, egged on by Anus Bollocks and his ilk: BREAKING: 18 people now in Queensland are being tested for Coronavirus after attending The Crossroads Hotel in Casula. They are in quarantine awaiting test results. It’s expected that number will rise. @9NewsQueensland @9NewsAUS — Rob Morrison (@RMorrison9) July 13, 2020 #BREAKING:
Via CoreLogic: Roughly flat year on year but 2019 was weak at this stage. It’s very important to remember that is only tracking owner-occupiers so it is missing the investor credit rout. Listings look more encouraging if you believe CL data: More price falls ahead on this data. Full report.
Iron ore prices for July 13, 2020: I think we’re headed straight to $130 here. Chinese data remains subdued outside of empty apartments: Brazil is still sickening: More Chinese steel mill restocking ahead.
No it’s not, screams The Australian: The NSW government will prioritise economic recovery over pre-emptive lockdowns, even as it slashes the number of people who will be allowed in the state’s pubs and ramps up enforcement against venues flouting the rules. As Victorian health authorities warned that infected travellers visited a string of venues across
DXY was stable last night: The Australian dollar fell against DMs: Did better versus EMs: Gold held $1800: Is oil rolling over? Dirt sure ain’t: Miners were soft: EM stocks were hit: Junk too: Bonds rallied. The US curve is flattening: Stocks fell sharply: The only chart that matters remained in control: Westpac has the
Back in the good old days when there was such a thing as Australia we saw this: The above headline can’t have escaped the attention of many Australians yesterday. It sat at the top of the SMH, The Age, Brisbane Times and WA Today websites all afternoon. I can’t remember the last time I saw
Via Banking Day: The RBA’s Term Funding Facility, intended to foster “Support for Business Credit”, to quote the sub-head from the governor’s landmark speech in mid-March, seems to be missing the mark. Or banks, as the beneficiaries of this cheap as chips funding, are in the same bind as early on in every downturn: supply
People keep messaging me telling me they nominated me for a UQ honorary doctorate LMAO 😂😂😂 I support the push in so far as it pisses the UQ higher ups off pic.twitter.com/M6Qky8Qydu — Drew Pavlou 柏乐志 (@DrewPavlou) July 12, 2020 Obviously the Chinese consulate will veto any such move. I’m going to nominate Mr Pavlou
The more things change the more they remain the same, via Bloomie: Faced with the prospect of restricted access to U.S. dollars, China’s answer is to get more people to use its own currency instead. The increasing spillover of Sino-American tensions into the financial sphere has ignited a fresh push by China to promote the
Via Alan Kohler today: A rather baffling, and worrying, complication of the pandemic of 2020 is that it seems to be coinciding with a tech bubble on the stock market. A messy crash in the middle of a global recession and health crisis would, to say the least, be unwelcome. There was a pretty serious
China likes to pretend that it’s not unleashing credit stimulus but it is. New yuan loans for June are out and evidence is unequivocal. Total social financing was at 3.43tr yuan with banks accounting for 1.81tr of that: Shadow banks are back in a big way: The surge in new loans is obvious year on
Via Bloomberg: Having successfully doubled crude prices over the past few months through unprecedented output cuts, the OPEC+ alliance led by the Saudis and Russia is poised to begin unwinding these stimulus measures. As fuel demand recovers with the lifting of coronavirus lockdowns, the producers are about to open the taps a little. …A second
I was once a great fan of Gareth Evans but not anymore: This would be sensible if it didn’t so comprehensively misrepresent recent history. Australian rhetoric around China has not been hysterical. When Malcolm Turnbull declared Australia would “stand up” against CCP violations of sovereignty he did so because it was necessary. China was busy
Via Capital Economics: Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including the US, UK and euro-zone, where we now expect falls in Q2 GDP to be less steep than we initially envisaged. However, renewed
Last week the International Gas Union issued its annual report on global gas prices. This is the industry benchmark report that the Australian gas cartel uses to argue in the Australian parliament that Aussie gas prices are reasonable. Here’s the 2019 results: Australia comes in at 18th around $8Gj. This makes domestic Aussie gas the
Via the AFR: The vacancy rate across the nation’s shopping malls is the highest in more than two decades as the coronavirus crisis accelerates a wave of store closures in a sector already under challenge. The national average shopping centre vacancy rate rose to 5.1 per cent in June from 3.8 per cent six months
Stupid tax cuts, via The Guardian: There has been some talk that the “stage 2” tax cuts are good because they assist those on low and middle incomes. They do, but the gains from increasing the maximum low-income tax offset, and the 19% personal income tax bracket from $37,000 to $41,000 are all offset by
Two things I will observe from my one week break. First, the rise of masks is obvious. Second, it’s just as well because Melbourne has not locked down anything like it did in round one. People are everywhere. With plenty of rubbing of shoulders and sharing of oxygen. This is not a second lockdown. It
DXY was soft Friday night: The Australian dollar was softer still: CFTC AUD positioning is now perfectly neutral: Gold eased: Oil held on: Everything China is now bubbling. Dirt: Miners: EM stocks even as the virus tears them in twain: Junk: Yield curves are nationalised: US stocks remain something to behold: The SPX/AUD correlation fell
Iron ore prices for July 10, 2020 (growth rates are weekly): Aaaand we’re off. In a classic seasonal pattern, steel mills have returned from Dragon Boat and gone long iron ore restocking. I still see us popping straight to $130. Higher is very possible if Brazil hiccups. There is plenty of room to restock: Steel
Just right for another locked down Melbourne Friday.
Iron ore prices for July 3, 2020: Still solid. Impressive given seasonal headwinds. Chinese data outside of empty apartments is still poor: Brazil virus spread is still poor: Still bullish for Q3 prices.
Via Bill Evans and Andrew Hanlan at Westpac: We have now revised our estimates of the Federal budget deficits for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to $95bn (4.8% of GDP) and $230bn (11.7% of GDP) respectively, amended from $80bn and $170bn. The lift in the estimated deficit for 2019/20 is due to an upward revision to the
Here is the true “gas-led recovery”. At Domain: The head of the nation’s top commercial gas user, fertiliser maker Incitec Pivot, says a dramatic weakening in the global oil price outlook should pressure east-coast gas producers to offer much cheaper contracts. After oil giants BP and Royal Dutch Shell slashed their outlook for Brent oil
