David Llewellyn-Smith


Rapegate. Vaccinegate. Holgate.

Here it is all over again. The Morrison Government unprocess of government. Stack a honey pot with your mates, bully sheilas out of the way, and muzzle the joint for political purposes: The Australian Post board consisted of seven of eight board seats occupied by Coalition cronies feasting on the taxpayer teat. None had any


Consumer confidence pops out of Brisbane lockdown

Via the ANZ: ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence: The receding of the Brisbane lockdown and announcement of the Trans-Tasman travel bubble has seen confidence jump sharply, to above its long-run average and the highest level since late 2019. #ausecon @DavidPlank12 @roymorganonline pic.twitter.com/KMBwNukvwR — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) April 12, 2021 Good, but let’s face it, these intermittent


Australians need a vaccine for Morrison Government lies

Australians need a vaccine for Morrison Government lies. The rollout of the vaccine is getting worse not better but according to our lying PM it’s keeping us on pace with everybody else: Morrison said Australia’s rollout is “keeping pace” with everybody else. We don’t need to keep up because we “are different” and have “no


Daily iron ore price update (Li Keqiang backfires)

The ferrous complex bifurcated violently yesterday as Chinese premier Li Keqiang stuck his foot in his mouth. Spot iron was firm. Paper soared overnight. But steel was caned: The driver was the release of this tidbit: “Overall economy and operation of enterprises have continued to recover, but surging international commodity prices have brought great pressure


Chinese credit hits the brakes

New yuan loans were out last night and, as expected, China has hit the brakes. Total social financing came in at 34ootr yuan with banks at 2730tr yuan of that: The pop in shadow credit is receding: The flow of new credit was down by over one-third year over year: The rolling annual smooths that


MS: Oil cooked

Morgan Stanley with a note I very much agree with: Inventory draws and demand recovery have supported oil prices in recent months, but two factors are starting to take some wind out of the sails of this bullish thesis: Iranian exports and US drilling activity.We moderate our price forecast for 3Q and close our long


ECB still a big, fat dove

Nordea with the note: There was broad support for the ECB to increase the pace of its bond purchases, but that support may wane, as the economic situation improves. We continue to see moderately higher Euro-area bond yields ahead. The monetary policy account from the ECB’s March meeting indicated that there were no strong objections to the central


Deloitte: Australian recovery to fade

Deloitte looks ahead. A bit too bullish for me but right in terms of trend: We assume that (1) virus numbers stay suppressed as vaccine logistics steadily improve, so state borders remain mostly open and domestic restrictions gradually ease as vaccines roll out, (2) vaccines achieve the equivalent of herd immunity by late 2021/early 2022,


How far does the stocks boom get?

Let’s pick up the ongoing debate over what kind of market cycle this is. Readers will know I have been juggling three narratives to explain the ongoing market boom as it confronts an economic boom: Bad news is good news meaning the ongoing deflation (after a brief spike) will ensure asset prices outperform the economy.


As CCP China turns Nazi Germany, what of the Olympics?

There have not been many who have dared make the comparison between CCP China and Nazi Germany. Both are fascist states governed economically by central planning. Both rely upon ethnic eugenics for political legitimacy. Both are incrementally expansionist to attack competing liberal democracies. Both use powerful economies to buy off and silence opponents. Both are


Will the US fiscal cliff crash markets?

We have noted a few times recently that the US economy faces a hiccup later this year and early next as its fiscal stimulus growth pulse crashes with year-on-year comparisons. This goes to the often overlooked fact that when it comes to GDP growth inputs, it is the rate of change in spending that matters


RBA does the retail property bleed out

From the RBA today: The pandemic has accelerated structural change and so has added to strains for retail commercial property Retail commercial property in Australia was already facing a challenging environment prior to the pandemic. The margins of retailers, particularly bricks-and-mortar retailers for discretionary goods, were being compressed by intense competition from both large international