CBA is turning desperate. Following Ian Narev comes Michael Blythe: Australia’s biggest domestic economic risk is a “skewed consumer cycle” and the government may need to step in with a policy on wages, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe says. Normal wage growth is around 3.5 per cent per annum, according to the
DXY launched last night then lost the lot. The chart remains bullish: AUD was weak against DM: But strong against EM: Gold was soft: Brent was firm on US hurricane outages and OPEC output cut extension talk (a certainty): Base metals were mixed: Big miners were crushed by Xi Jinping: EM stocks rebounded: High yield
For those who couldn’t make it in person to the MB fund rock-n-roll thunder tour events around the country, we recorded the Melbourne concert. The first video is me explaining the history of MB, it’s purpose and the evolution of the MB Fund. The second video is Leith explaining his history with MB. The third
It’s as obvious as the nose on your face that global markets are beginning to suspect that the Australian property bubble may burst. The reasons are equally clear: prices are stalling or falling; officials have labelled it a bubble; global interest rates are rising; other similar markets in NZ, the UK and Canada are rolling;
Via the AFR: Federal Labor is open to a deal on energy policy, but has demanded more detail from the government on the new scheme and has indicated it may increase the emissions reduction target for the electricity sector should it win the next election. With the Turnbull government needing the support of both federal
Via Reuters: After getting Qatar and Australia to lower gas price, India today pitched for flexible terms for LNG purchase including provision of pricing review, flexible take or pay and abolition of destination restriction clause. Speaking at the LNG Producer-Consumer Conference here, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said the global LNG market is undergoing a major
Iron ore price charts for October 18, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $61.70. Paper cracked overnight. Steel fell a little. Xi Jinping appears to have disappointed Dalian. Reuters has texture: Market participants are also watching the Communist Party congress with President Xi Jinping saying China’s campaign against corruption has achieved “overwhelming momentum” as the
Not news to MB readers but some nice texture from UBS: Buying intention & activity rose further on price optimism Both home buying activity and intensions gained momentum. Our latest survey showed that one in six respondents had purchased a home in the past 6 months, a notable increase from the same period a year
MB prodding appears to have tipped Rob Burgess over the edge on population: Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party continues to stoke fears that Australia is becoming “Asian-ised” (whatever that means), and Australian Conservative leader Cory Bernardi complains of the growing threat of “‘influencers’ bankrolled by the Chinese Communist Party”. The antidote to those scare-mongering views is that China’s
The ASX200 melt-up continues today: The key to it is still driving as bond yields fall away: Dalian has held its gains today: Big Iron is resting: Big Gas too: Big Gold no longer cares that gold is falling! Big Sleazy is mostly up: Big Liar too: So long as yields keep pricing out rate
Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi’s head of global macroeconomics: The day you finally have enough housing in Sydney is the day I wouldn’t want to be caught with a big mortgage. I think there is a real danger when certain developments have gone on for a long time, and in Australia in particular the combination of high
Via S&P: The number of delinquent housing loans underlying Australian prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) fell to 1.10% in August from 1.17% in July, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings. The decline, which is not unusual because arrears typically have fallen in August for the past 10 years, was partly influenced by
From BHP’s first QTR update: Iron ore – Total iron ore production for the September 2017 quarter decreased by three per cent to 56 Mt, or 64 Mt on a 100 per cent basis. Guidance for the 2018 financial year remains unchanged at between 239 and 243 Mt, or between 275 and 280 Mt on
Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slipped from –0.16% in August –0.21% in September. The growth rate remains negative pointing to below trend momentum and a sharp turnaround
Via Bloomie: Canada’s banking regulator released final rules that will make it tougher for borrowers to take on uninsured mortgages, adding to a growing list of measures to rein in the nation’s housing markets. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions announced measures targeting borrowers in the uninsured segment of the mortgage market that has been responsible for
Work for Merrill Lynch. Become PM. Do nothing about house prices. Ramp immigration. Sell your mansion to a Chinese investor. Then join the bank: ANZ has appointed former New Zealand Prime Minister John Key as chairman of ANZ New Zealand. He will succeed John Judge as chairman as he retires from the board of directors in January,
Quite rightly: “What’s very clear is that the government is scrambling. We have policy on the run. We have an energy policy being put together with strings and bandaids,” shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said Tuesday morning. “What is very clear and has been publicly confirmed by the Energy Security Board, is that this policy that
Welcome to a little credit crunching, via Banking Day today: Suncorp is tightening its lending standards for apartment buyers in the Brisbane property market following recent falls in real estate prices across the city. In a memo sent to Queensland mortgage brokers on Tuesday, the bank said it would no longer accept investment applications for apartments
DXY was strong last night and it’s head and shoulders bottom is near perfect if it breaks out: AUD was weak against USD, firm against EUR: It was strong against EMs: Gold was pummeled: Brent is still strong: The base metals lunacy flamed out: As did big miners: And EM stocks: High yield is stable:
Via the AFR: Labor states – or a future federal Labor government – that pursue more ambitious renewable energy targets than those set under the Turnbull government’s proposed new Reliability and Emissions Guarantee will face more costly reliability standards, which could increase the cost of electricity in their markets. Energy Security Board chairman Kerry Schott
Via CBA: LNG is increasingly becoming an important commodity for Australia. We estimate oil and gas production — as measured by value added — will approach iron ore production in the next few years. The upshot is the LNG price is a growing influence on Australia’s terms of trade and AUD. The ongoing recovery in
Via Domainfax: National Australia Bank’s Alan Oster says it’s not exactly clear why retail sales have been so weak lately, but there are plenty of things likely to be limiting spending growth. Wages growth is still near a record low, utility bills are soaring, and there’s been increasing speculation that interest rates may rise. We also
Iron ore price charts for October 17, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 70 cents to $61.70. Paper took off overnight. Coking futures and physical and are stuck around $180. Steel is stalled. CISA output for late April was up 1.1% to 1.87mt with no sign of any shutdowns yet. Bloomie has some more on the outlook: “The
I am going to do back-flip with a triple pike here. Do-nothing Malcolm has circumvented Tony Abbott on carbon: The Coalition party room has endorsed the government’s new energy plan, despite objections from Tony Abbott and others that the policy still has a component aimed at reducing emissions….Energy retailers will be required to meet standards
Via Westpac: September is a seasonally strong quarter due to the post June 30 price resetting of many administered prices and as such, the ABS seasonal factors moderate our estimate to a seasonally adjusted 0.4%. Key factors in Q3 are: the ongoing grocery competition holding back food prices; the annual repricing of the tobacco excise;
