From the IMF today: These charts are meant to reassure that it’s all under control. But what I find most important about the chart on the left is the trigger point for the great Australian housing bubble was the turn of the Millennium. The reason was Peter Costello’s halving of the capital gains tax on
Via Domain: All new Sydney developments would be subject to a minimum 30 per cent affordable housing target in a bid to address the city’s housing crisis under a NSW Greens proposal. The Saving Sydney package, announced on Friday by Greens MP and planning spokesman David Shoebridge, would also abolish priority precincts and restore planning
From China Stats Bureau today comes Chinese house prices up 0.6% in January and 10% over the year: Top tier cities have picked up recently: The advance decline ratio remains quite strong: And the raw data: Still strong enough for gains in starts but they are going the other way for now:
Via Banking Day: The plaintiff law firm said the class action was being run in the Federal Court on behalf of people who, after 1 January 2011, were given “unsuitable loans” by Westpac, in breach of its responsible lending obligations. …Principal lawyer and managing partner with Maurice Blackburn, Ben Slade, said: “This case will seek
Via FTAlphaville: March 1 may no longer be a “magical date” for President Trump, but the deadline after which tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imports are set to more than double is fast approaching. Now in their ninth round of negotiations, the US and China remain at odds on a number of issues, despite making some
It is this. The jobs growth is all in NSW and VIC: With all other states falling away fast: Bulls will see this as good with jobs preventing an unruly house price crash. But NSW and VIC are the epi-centre of the house price shakeout and it will be in both states that the downdraft in
There is one big difference between the global and local slowdowns right now. It is that while much of the world is entering an industrial recession with services economies holding up, Australia is the complete opposite. The US is seeing an industrial slowdown with services booming: Same in Europe exemplified by Germany: Same in China
Via Banking Day: APRA fronted the Senate Economics Legislation Committee – better known as the Senate estimates committee – yesterday and covered a grab-bag of topics, with the overarching theme that this year will be a much tougher brand of regulation. APRA and ASIC will need to be tougher, in order to justify a raft
Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. With the January surge in liquidity looming in the distance, the Chinese real estate market is hitting an important turning point. iFeng: 2019年楼市或加速分化 楼市成交整体走低 According to the statistics of the Krui Real Estate Research Center, during the Spring Festival, the data of more than 40 key monitoring cities showed that
Right on cue in Parliament comes the Governor of the Lunatic RBA: My colleagues and I welcome this opportunity to share our views on the Australian economy and the RBA’s important policy responsibilities. These hearings are an essential part of the accountability process. Two weeks ago, we released our latest forecasts for the Australian economy.
More nice work from Marty North (who is surely in line for some kind of knighthood) as he takes Kochie to the woodshed: Great to see some socks stuffed into that blabbermouth.
The housing panic has set in for the incoming government, via the AFR: Labor will outbid the Coalition on banks today by promising a vastly more generous compensation scheme for victims of financial service wrongdoing, including payments of up to $2 million for individuals and small businesses. …It will announce the lender will pay an
In case of emergency break glass for Recessionberg, via Bloomie: Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg downplayed reports that a major port in northern China has banned coal imports from Australia and says trade ties between the two nations are “exceptionally strong.” Frydenberg cautioned against “jumping to conclusions,” after Reuters said Dalian Port Group has imposed an
Iron ore prices for February 21, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Steel up. Steel output remains very high. If bulks are really going to come off owing to weak demand I’s like to see output fall from these levels. Argus has some nice texture on mill raw materials management: Most mills surveyed by Argus
DXY firmed last night as EUR fell: It was wall-to-wall Australian dollar carnage: Gold was bashed: Oil eased: And base metals: Big miners fell at last: EM stocks too: But junk was OK: Treasuries pulled a Costanza: As did bunds: Stocks fell: The global industrial economy is slowing fast as Chinese demand fades away. Europe
There it goes. The Australian property bubble is bursting and it is not going to be pretty. MB has previously posited an ultimate fall in house prices of 20-30% in nominal terms from respective city peaks over two price fall periods. That could translate to a 40% fall in real terms over the long term.
Not least because they point backwards while leading indicators are in the toilet. More from Damein Boey at CS: The unemployment rate remained steady at 5%. Overall, a very strong jobs number. But cold comfort for the RBA, given that employment is a lagging indicator, and the weight of evidence is pointing to a very
Chaos! Farewell Julie: Today I announced that I will not re-contest the seat of #Curtin at the next election. It’s been an honour to serve as the member for Curtin, Foreign Minister of Australia & Deputy Leader of @LiberalAus pic.twitter.com/Vqai7ht03K — Julie Bishop (@JulieBishopMP) February 21, 2019
Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you. Via Reuters: Customs at China’s northern Dalian port has banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall coal imports for 2019 through its harbours at 12 million tonnes, an official at Dalian Port Group told Reuters on Thursday. The indefinite ban on imports from top supplier Australia,
Rocks everything actually. The AUD moonshot on jobs before Big Bill Evan’s interest rate cut call shot it down: Bonds too: XJO reversed 70 points: Big Iron is mostly up: Big Gas still doesn’t care about Labor: Big Gold is surprisingly weak: Big Banks are riding the bazooka. I’m not a believer in this bond
The ABS is out with January Labour Force and the news is amusing: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES Employed persons increased 39,100 to 12,751,800. Full-time employed persons increased 65,400 to 8,743,100 and part-time employed persons decreased 26,300 to 4,008,700. Unemployed persons increased 6,600 to 673,500. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%. Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to
Recession anyone? Via CBA: Business activity in the Australian private sector decreased fractionally in February as a dip in services activity outweighed continued growth in manufacturing. New orders also ticked down, but employment continued to rise solidly. On the price front, both input costs and output prices increased at sharper rates than in January. Companies,
Via EnergyQuest at the AFR: One third of Queensland’s new $84 billion LNG export industry is likely to be forced to close down by 2025 due to shortages of coal seam gas reserves and the need for shipments to be diverted to local users, according to a detailed analysis of the sector. The findings by
Via the AFR: It says everything about the intellectual savvy and raw power of the global anti-coal lobby that it has corralled Ivan Glasenberg into a profound public concession on coal mining. His ear-battered competitors say the softest thing about Glasenberg is the enamel of his teeth. Glencore’s chief executive and senior shareholder is hard.
Via the AFR today: Industry sources said one of Labor’s proposals was that the lender paid the broker a flat fee regardless of the size of the loan, rather than a fee that is a percentage of the loan. This change would discourage brokers talking people into borrowing more than they need to increase the
Some more heavy hitters join the MB outlook today, via the AFR: Ellerston Capital’s head of global macro, Brett Gillespie, believes there is a solid chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates sooner than the market expects, and before May’s federal election, to counter the property correction. “My prediction is that
This is how one McGrathmageddon realtor summed up the property market this week: 2019 looks more promising than many would have thought. November and December were very tough but in January things really picked up. Buyer enquiry has been exceptional. The negative media reports preaching that it’s a great time to purchase must be prompting buyer
DXY fell last night as EUR and CNY rallied: The Australian dollar marked time: But was down versus EMs: Gold eased: Oil rose again: And base metals: Big miners loved it: EM stocks firmed: And junk: Treasuries were sold: And the bund curve flattened again: Stocks added a little: The Fed’s patience was very clear
Tony Wright sums of the death of our Westminster system of government today: With fast-gathering regularity, ministerial responsibility appears to have all but decayed to no responsibility. Daily now the nation is assaulted by revelations of conduct that would get the cold shoulder in a shearer’s pub. It is as if Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s
Throughout this cycle, MB has gotten wages right. While everyone else forecast wages booms we predicted they would remain in the gutter. This was one key rationale behind our equally contrarian call that the RBA’s next move was always going to be down. How did we know this when everyone else said otherwise? See Bloomie: The
