Via New Daily: The property industry is pointing to high auction clearance rates as evidence of a strong post-election recovery, but experienced analysts say the latest figures only tell half the story. Last week recorded the highest final clearance rate (61.8 per cent) since May last year, prompting those with skin in the game to
The FT has an interesting debate on it: The price of iron ore has surged 60 per cent to above $115 a tonne so far this year, according to S&P Global Platts…But it also runs the risk of attracting fresh supply and bringing this year’s rally to an abrupt end. “The market is telling us
The AUD is down a little through the morning with no misbegotten RBA utterances to keep it aloft: XJO is down marginally: Aussie bonds are up: Bitcoin and gold are upperer: Dalian is soft: Big Iron up anyway: Big Gas is meh: Big Gold to the moon! Big Banks are all over: Big Realty is
Back into the oven for the pizza giant, via the Herald Sun: Pizza giant Domino’s will on Tuesday be hit with a class action by workers who claim to have been underpaid for almost five years. The class action is being brought on behalf of delivery drivers and in-store workers employed across Domino’s franchise network.
Not this Houses and Holes, who is flourishing. The houses and holes economy is cooked, says Adrian Blundell-Wignall, former director of the OECD, an adjunct professor at Sydney University and author of Globalisation and Finance at the Crossroads, via the AFR: “A plan” is not about government policy overreach exposed as flawed in the 1970s. A greater
So says the RBA: Dr Lowe also said major infrastructure funding should be run like monetary policy – at arm’s length from the government – so that voters trust it is fit for purpose. “If we don’t get it right then the public doesn’t trust the politicians,” he said at the Crawford leadership forum in Canberra
This is the amusing joke, the idiot cousin if you will, that every Australian strategic analyst overlooks red faced, via Peter Hartcher: The leadership in Tehran repeatedly has said that if Iran is not allowed to export oil through the Persian Gulf, no one will. “Either everyone will export, or no one,” as Supreme Leader
Via The Australian comes the good news: Scott Morrison will move to ensure the Senate sits without a break until the Coalition’s entire $158 billion income tax cut package is passed when parliament resumes next week, after Labor’s frontbench yesterday rejected calls from its own senior MPs to wave through all three stages of the
Via the AFR comes one of the legends of strategic policy in Australia, Hugh White: China’s bid for regional hegemony poses the most momentous strategic challenge America has faced in Asia since at least the Vietnam War, if not the Second World War. And yet Australia, as its closest ally in Asia, is declining to
From Westpac this time: • As mentioned in our front page essay, last week’s RBA Board Minutes did nothing to silence the increasing market focus on the potential for the RBA to venture into more unconditional forms of monetary policy, such as quantitative easing. That is despite RBA Governor Lowe stating later in the week
Iron spot prices eased back. Paper fell harder. Steel jumped higher. Reuters explains: China’s top steel city of Tangshan has imposed a new set of output restrictions on its iron and steel firms because of persistently high industrial gas pollution levels, the local government-backed Tangshan Labour Daily reported on Monday. Two units of steel giant
DXY was soft again last night. EUR up and CNY down: The Australian dollar lifted against all DMs: And EMs: Gold broke out of its giant, bullish ascending triangle: Oil fell: Big miners rose: With metals: EM stocks were stalled: Junk stable: Treasuries were bid: And bunds: And local bonds: Stocks held on: Westpac has
Via CoreLogic comes the weekly leading mortgage index: Solid enough. It would normally be falling on a seasonal basis. New listings are very weak and this is beginning to pull down unsold stock: With more rate cuts it’s not shaping as a terrible Spring. Full report.
Via Bill Evans at Westpac: We have decided to bring forward the timing of the next RBA rate cut from August to July. We are surprised that we have to do this, given that a pause between cuts might have allowed for a smoother transmission process but cannot deny the explicit signals provided in the
Via Moody’s: Second-Quarter 2019 Housing Forecast Report The May CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index results show the national housing market continuing its correction, led by Sydney and Melbourne. The national index for home values has fallen for almost two years. The decline has been sharper in house values compared with apartment values; house values have
Via Albo: What we have determined this morning to do is to propose a negotiating position to the Government which would bring forward tax cuts faster for those who need it and importantly those who will spend it to stimulate demand in the economy.” We have determined the following position: Stage one – of course,
It’s been like a warm blanket settling over markets for the past few weeks as the Lunatic RBA finally began to talk down the AUD. But it’s back to regular programming today as Phil Lowe ripped it off with a icy blast that questioned the usefulness of global easing: Lowe said the accomodative monetary policy would
Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The RBA has just released a paper about the history of the Australian equities. It contains some very useful and unique historical data on the Australian market. For context, earnings, dividends and total returns data for the Australian market has been quite sparse, and of questionable quality going back in
Via AVEO today:
Via Gareth Aird of CBA comes a note to shake the towers of the great: Overview Economic growth has slowed in Australia. But looking at the economy from a public/private sector perspective shows a marked difference in what has been occurring. Government demand has been strong while private demand has been weak (chart 1). In
Last week I noted the campaign to get Santos’ Narrabri gas project off the ground owing to its importance as a foil for the Centre Alliance push for gas reservation and, by extension, the ScoMo’s Government’s tax cuts. The AFR declared the project all but approved: Encouraging indications that the Narrabri gas project will go
Via Nouriel Roubini: The nascent Sino-American cold war is the key source of uncertainty in today’s global economy. How the conflict plays out will affect consumer and asset markets of all kinds, as well as the trajectory of inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal conditions around the world. Escalation of the tensions between the world’s two
This is what happens when a gas cartel ships too much gas into Asia so that it can gouge customers at home via an artificial shortage, via The Australian: Australian LNG producers face a slump in export revenue amid indications a global supply glut may persist up to three years longer than anticipated, depressing prices
Overreach. It’s always fun to watch. Via the AFR: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has vowed to slash government red tape to unlock investment and opened the door to industrial relations reform, challenging business to make the case for change and to deliver “shared gains” for workers and employers. In his first major domestic policy speech
Spot has not update but I believe it fell. Paper more. Steel is still stuck and is giving off a bearish signal. Last week’s rebar inventories climbed again and are now tracking materially above last year’s levels. Port stocks fell again, to 117.5mt, though the pace slowed. Steel mills are overproducing, squeezing the last drops
DXY fell hard Friday night. EUR jumped, CNY fell: The Australian dollar was firm: Despite the bounce, the market actually got more short AUD last week at -65k contracts: Gold tried and failed again to break out: Oil rose: Metals were soft: Miners too: EM stocks fell: High yield too: Treasuries were bashed: Bunds smashed:
There is no other way to put it than a complete sellout. The AFR is piling on the pressure: Senior Labor figures are leaning towards waving through the Morrison government’s full $158 billion income tax cut package but only after trying to split the legislation so the party can symbolically vote against relief for high
The AFR’s war on rate cuts took a new an ever more stupid turn on the weekend: Baby Boomers and Millennials are trading blows about who is responsible for deteriorating economic conditions that weaken their chances of home ownership or retirement security. Millennials allege profligate Boomers got a free kick from no university fees and
Via Peter Jennings at ASPI: The United States is rapidly restructuring its military presence in Asia and rethinking how it could fight a major conventional war in the area which the Pentagon has identified as the ‘single most consequential region for America’s future’. This will have important strategic consequences for Australia. The Indo-Pacific strategy report released this
Via Westpac: For the FOMC, “uncertainties” now dominate At the June meeting, the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy shifted materially. While their core view of the economy remains positive, “uncertainties” now dominate. Beginning with the core view, it clearly remains constructive. The only real economy forecast to see material revision in June was the 2019
