JPM on the Fed minutes. —————————————————————————————————————— The main messages from the July FOMC meeting minutes were the same ones that Powell conveyed after the meeting: Ongoing increases in the funds rate would likely be appropriate, the pace of hikes would slow “at some point,” and the Committee will be data dependent in determining when that
The gas price is hanging around $19Gj again today as the cartel calculates that that is low enough to take the heat off it during ADGSM negotiations with the captured Resources Minister Mad King. Power prices have thus fallen back too and at these prices will raise utility bills by about one-third over the next
I have said many times that former PM Morrison has a unique ability to divide. Now he has divided himself entirely from his nation. This week we witnessed a sight to behold in Australia’s leftie press. As the great ScoMo debacle unfolded, the leftie press – Nine, The Guardian and Crikey – all condemned the
The Market Ear with more terrific charts. Big vols are moving higher JPM currency volatility index has moved sharply higher. VIX is so far “unimpressed” as equities are focused on the upcoming expiration and people are trying to figure out how much more the systematic players will buy… Refinitiv The trend in bond volatility Volatility
This: Chinese banks will likely trim their benchmark loan prime rates Monday for the first time in months to help spur borrowing demand and reverse a sharp slump in consumer and business sentiment. The one-year loan prime rate — the de facto benchmark lending rate for banks –is expected to be cut by 10 basis
DXY is back and it’s bad. EUR is sick: AUD is too: Oil bounced: But metals are rolling: As miners smoke crack: EM stocks look toppy: Junk has rolled as well: The US curve steepened a touch: Stocks only go up: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US existing home sales in July fell for a
He’s from the projects, they said. His Mum was a welfare battler, they said. He’ll lift wages, they said. They lied. Albo is the smiling assassin of capital and he has set about what is shaping as the greatest accelerated destruction of Australian workers’ wellbeing in a century: There has not been a singular drawdown
It’s cold comfort for punters being reamed by the energy cartels but take a moment to enjoy the earnings release of Origin energy today. The card-carrying member of the gas cartel is being hollowed out by the coal cartel: Origin Energy Limited (Origin) reports underlying profit rose 30 per cent to $407 million for the
Credit Suisse on DXY. —————————————————————————————————————————— FX markets have now entered what was supposed to be an aimless, low-volatility fortnight ahead of the 25-27AugJackson Hole meetings. Instead, implied volatility in key pairs jumped at the start of the week, in our view primarily as a function of China’s surprise rate cut on Monday. Later in this
The US is pushing forward on multiple fronts: The US and Taiwan have started formal negotiations on a bilateral trade initiative, a move likely to inflame already high tensions with China. The first round of trade talks is set to take place “early this fall,” the Office of the US Trade Representative said in a
You don’t say. For me, this is still a bear market rally owing to the nasty cocktail of sky-high inventories, a tightening Fed, and outright recessions in Europe and China. BofA. P/E should be 11 (it’s 20) or CPI should be 0% (it’s 8.5%) Only 30% of our bull market signposts (things that happen before
The ferrous complex puked on August 17, 2022: Chinese iron ore port inventory climbed again last week: The reasons being cited for the price falls are balderdash: Nearly 20 steel mills in China’s southwest regions had suspended operations as of Wednesday, according to steel industry data provider SMM. The power rationing is expected to continue
Goldman does China is fooked in the nicest possible way. It ain’t short-term and it ain’t getting better. CNY is going to fall. A clear picture of weak domestic demand: Combined with muted inflation and weak credit growth, July activity data confirmed the lack of domestic demand. With a few exceptions, most indicators showed sequential
Martians can get Australian gas: The UK is about to receive liquefied natural gas from far-off Australia for the first time in at least six years, highlighting the European region’s desperation in grappling with its worst energy crisis in decades. But back home the price is still hovering around $20Gj and the price of electricity
In my ten years of observing the hideous Australian macro sausage factory in action on this blog, I have never seen a more stupid and harmful series of policy blunders than what we have today on both the monetary and fiscal sides of the equation. The two are gutting Australian living standards when they should
A good take on the Chinese property adjustment from TSLombard. Upon becoming General Secretary of the Communist Party in November 2012, Xi Jinping announced the goal of his leadership would be the “China Dream”, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Reporting at the time from Beijing, Evan Osnos, staff writer for The New Yorker,
Must Australia liberate the Solomons again? This time from China’s tinpot allies: Last week dignitaries, including US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy, gathered for a dawn ceremony on Bloody Ridge in Solomon Islands to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of the brutal battle for Guadalcanal. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare didn’t bother
BofA’s excellent Michael Hartnett has released his latest monthly fundie survey and has had enough of the bear market rally. ——————————————————————————————————————————– Our survey says: sentiment remains bearish, but no longer apocalyptically bearish as hopes rise that inflation & rates shocks end in coming quarters (Chart1); BofABull &Bear Indicator stays at “max bearish” 0=no immediate reversal
We’ve reached the blowoff profits phase of the COVID commodity mania. The AFR is on its knees sucking the proverbial: The biggest contributor to Australia’s record trade surplus, BHP, has vowed to be disciplined as it pursues growth in “future facing” commodities after reporting its biggest profit in Australian dollar terms, record dividends worth $23.2
No change in the status of Australia’s energy crisis today. The gas price is still sitting around $18Gj and power prices bounced: I repeat, even these prices are still enough to double utility bills over the next year. The RBA warned about it again in the minutes: Headline inflation was 1.7 per cent (seasonally adjusted)
DXY held its gain last night: AUD held its losses: Oil is not well: Metals did a bit better: Mining popped. Meh: EM stocks are trying: But junk has stalled: The US curve pancaked: And stocks paused: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US industrial production in July was stronger than expected, up 0.6%m/m, with manufacturing
There is an exceptional documentary running on Foxtel and/or AppelTV at the moment called Blood Money: Inside the Nazi Economy. It chronicles the rise of rise of Nazism from the macroeconomic angle, from the issuance of MEFO bonds and rearmament, through to the necessity of invasion and occupation as the economic output of the militarised
BofA with the note. I will add that higher inventories meeting weakening demand is not a recipe for good profits. Not everything is about the second derivative Waning demand and pricing power plus continued wage pressure do not seem like reasons to celebrate. But Wednesday’s weaker CPI (note)(a mere 53bp drop) was met with applause–peak
Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley. There is a Fed pivot coming in my view as inflation falls relatively quickly. But it’s coming because so is the global recession led by China and Europe but also landing in the US. Earnings are going to fall a lot further yet and that is not priced. ———————————————————————————————————————————- The
The Market Ear with more great charts. What could make this rally more durable? JPM’s head of US market intelligence Andrew Tyler points out what could take this even higher (not saying it will): 1. lower Sept CPI 2. human participation – closing shorts, going long, and then levering up 3. dovish inflection from the Fed. and what would
