Via a demoralised Ross Gittins: The mid-year budget update we’ll see next Monday presents the government and its econocrats with a threshold question: can their battered credibility withstand one more set of economic forecasts based on little more than naive optimism? Or won’t it matter if first the industry experts, and then the Quiet Australians in voterland,
Via Domain: Millions of Australians are struggling to work more hours and lift their earnings in a “gig economy” that suppresses wage growth, according to new research that reveals key pressure points across the country. …Labor frontbencher Clare O’Neil will liken the trend to a “drought” for workers who need more work, saying the two
Via Deloitte today: Retail Forecasts: little Christmas cheer but some promise in 2020 9 December 2019: It has been a tough year for the retail sector so far in 2019, and the upcoming festive spending will likely do little to change that underwhelming result. Weak wage growth, high debt levels and increasing price pressures are
Via the AFR: The key figure in fraud charges brought by the Chinese government against defector Wang Liqiang is linked to a mystery $50,000 Labor Party donation flagged as suspicious by the NSW corruption watchdog. Sydney businessman Xin “Filip” Shu confirmed he made the complaint against Mr Wang in April this year, which is now
Vai Platts: China Macro & Metals: Steel output falls, but property creates bright spots Chinese steel production posted a rare drop in October, while domestic steel prices have been buoyed by the property sector. Paul Bartholomew and Sebastian Lewis analyze China’s key economic indicators, and what they mean for the metals sector. Crude steel production
Via the FT: Beijing has ordered all government offices and public institutions to remove foreign computer equipment and software within three years, in a potential blow to the likes of HP, Dell and Microsoft. The directive is the first publicly known instruction with specific targets given to Chinese buyers to switch to domestic technology vendors,
Via Bill Evans of Westpac: The Australian economy grew by a disappointing 0.4% in the September quarter for annual growth of 1.7%. Of most concern is that this represents the fifth consecutive quarter where private final demand, which declined by 0.3% in September, either contracted or was flat. Within private final demand the most surprising
Josh Frydenberg sure is an acccomplished liar (or maybe be believes his own drivel). He writes today: The budget position has improved year-by-year, with our past three final budget outcomes $37bn better off than forecast. It is not luck that the budget is in balance for the first time in 11 years and we are
More consumer warnings: The failure of car sales to turn is one strong indication of how conservative the consumer feels.
Iroin ore charts for December 6, 2019: Spot up. Paper up more after US jobs. Steel has recovered some. The great untold story of this year’s iron ore boom continues with the release of Chinese import data over the weekend. Iron ore imports at 90.65mt, still down on a rolling annual basis: Reuters notes: The
For what it is worth, via The Australian comes two primary voting: And two party preferred: I find it hard to believe goiven the burning and stalled economy but there you have it. If you believe it, the polls have diverged since Newspoll shifted methodology two months ago, and with all other polling houses bunkered
DXY jumped Friday night: The Australian dollar was capped: CFTC shorts fell sharply to -36K: Gold was hit: Oil climbed: Metals were weak but copper took off: Miners gained: EM stocks too: Junk is cruising: Treasuries were sold: Bunds too: And Aussie: As stocks push towards more record highs: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap
Via Chris Joye today: As this column feared, the government is losing control of its otherwise impressive fiscal policy legacy as the Reserve Bank of Australia seeks to deflect blame for its failure to hit its legislated inflation and employment targets. This is emerging as one of the key tests of Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s political
Via Calculated Risk: Special Notes on GM Strike and the Decennial Census: The GM strike ended in October, and 46,000 workers were on strike during the BLS reference week in October. These workers returned to their jobs in November, and this should boost employment gains for November. Decennial Census: In August and September, the Census Bureau increased
LNG in all sorts, via Bloomberg: A slowdown in gas demand growth in China, the driver of global use over the past two years, is expected to slacken further, adding to investor concern as supply continues to build. Consumption in 2021-2025 will grow at a slower pace than it has in the current five-year period,
A new probe, via Reuters: Australia on Thursday established an investigation into potential foreign political interference through social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and WeChat. The review comes amid heightened Australian concerns that China is seeking to interfere in Canberra’s affairs, and after U.S. intelligence analysts found Russia had used social media to try
Via Saxo: Summary: Equities continue to rally although the first week of December has been more choppy due to mixed trade headlines from the US and China. Overall, US equity valuations have hit dangerous levels for long-term investors and the recent Swedish Services PMI figures are highlighting emerging spillover effects from manufacturing into the services sector
Via the AFR: Gas supply on the east coast gas market has dramatically loosened up thanks to record production, bringing down domestic prices and weakening the case for federal government intervention, according to a leading research consultancy. …Despite only a modest rise in LNG exports from Gladstone, the market saw a surplus of 17 petajoules
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Trade data came in below expectations. The surplus declined to $4.5 billion in October from a downwardly-revised $6.8 billion. Interestingly, the decline in the trade balance, and downward revisions to prior months’ data, have brought the official data back to be much more in line with unofficial
Iron ore price charts for December 5, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. No change. Firm pricing for a few months on the year end restock.
DXY was down again last night as EUR and CNY rallied: But the Australian dollar outpaced it lower: Against EMs too: Gold was stable: Oil is trying: Metals are still shot: Miners were soft with GLEN crashed as it is engulfed by another bribery scandal: Em stocks rallied: Junk is fine: Bonds mostly
Ah construction or, more to the point, lack of, via the AIG: Look at employment and new orders: If we break new orders down it is fugly: Houses, apartments, offices, bridges and roads all going bust at once. A universal building bust that we warned about for a year yet here we are. Unemployment is
And now for a terms of trade shock. Just what an income denuded, surplus-obsessed, stall speed economy does not need. Yesterday’s trade balance numbers finally registered the inevitable as it fell from a surplus of $6.8bn to $4.5bn on the back of clubbed bulk commodoty prices: This is just the beginning. My base case for
The truth is laid bare for all to see. Australia faces five critical challenges to its social and economic wellbeing today and, alas, it now abundently clear that the nation elected the wrong government to deal with any and all of them. The first and largest challenge is climate change. Science, drought and bushfires are
From Ironyhaven today: Coal > climate change > drought > no coal.
Welcome to the new frontier of LNG doom. Via FTAlphaville: This is a guest post by Rauli Partanen, an author, analyst and communicator on climate change, environment and energy systems. Partanen co-founded and leads Think Atom, a non-profit think tank advocating nuclear energy alternatives. In this post he argues Germany’s interests in natural gas are jeopardising the European Taxonomy for
Bravo RBNZ again: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today released its final decisions following its comprehensive review of its capital framework for banks, known as the Capital Review. Governor Adrian Orr said the decisions to increase capital requirements are about making the banking system safer for all New Zealanders, and will ensure bank owners have
Let’s start the parade of bad ideas with Gottiboff: Our largest state, NSW is the country’s engine room, but it has a crazy property development approval system designed to create uncertainty and boost costs. Victoria has a deep energy crisis that makes both consumers and business nervous. Victoria creates an artificial gas shortage by banning
In his recent speech describing unconventional policy options, Governor Phil Lowe noted that: The fourth policy response was forward guidance. This took two forms: calendar based and state based. Under calendar-based guidance, the central bank makes an explicit commitment not to increase interest rates until a certain point in time. Under state-based guidance, the central
Trying to get blood from a stone, at Domain: Embattled Liberal MP Gladys Liu has requested her party pay back at least $100,000 she donated to her campaign to win the marginal Melbourne seat of Chisholm. Ms Liu contributed the money to her own election campaign in the lead-up to the May 18 poll after
