Beijing has released its latest virus data: At 04:00 on February 19, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 394 new confirmed cases and 114 new deaths (108 in Hubei, Hebei, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong, and Yunnan). And 1 in Shaanxi), and 1277 suspected cases were newly added. 1779 new
As the market realises that Phil Lowe is going to cut after all: It’s a slow dawn though as bonds still have plenty of room to rally: Unemployment is rising before the coronavirus hit. Do I need to paint a picture?
South Korea is a sudden COVID-19 hotspot with the KCDC just reporting 51 news cases today to hit 82 in total. Total transmissions outside China are looking a little rampy: Still doubling every six days, five days including Diamond Princess: It ain’t over.
Via Goldman today comes a statement of the obvious: Despite posting unusually strong returns in 2019, the equity bull market continues; investors have largely shrugged off the potential economic and earnings hit from the coronavirus. The relentless rise in equities is largely a function of lower bond yields and the hope that the current disruption
Via the ABS just now: TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased by 20,000 to 12,996,700 people. Full-time employment increased by 14,600 to 8,879,300 people and part-time employment increased by 5,400 to 4,117,300 people. Unemployment increased by 600 to 709,600 people. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%. Participation rate remained steady at 66.0%. Monthly hours worked in all
At Nine: Victorian-based homewares retailer ISHKA has become the latest victim of Australia’s deepening retail crisis, collapsing after almost 50 years in business. Specialising in handmade craft, gifts, clothing and homewares, ISHKA operates 60 stores and employs over 450 staff. The retailer said an “unusually challenging summer period” and $3 million worth of Christmas stock
Via SEEK this morning: Tune in at 11.30 for ABS numberwang.
Seriously, why is the ferrous complex bid? Via Goldman: The only thing that will stop that mountain of steel from reaching the sky in the short term is large scale production cuts.
More virus fallout:
As noted earlier, China has today reversed its previous revision of coronavirus definition and added still more confusion with new ones. Take Hubei today: From 04:00 to 24:00 on February 19, 2020 , 349 new cases of new coronary pneumonia were confirmed in the province , including: 615 in Wuhan, 5 in Xiantao, 3 in Shiyan, 3 in Suizhou,
Via ZH: Yes, in the sixth edition of its diagnostic criteria released Wednesday for covid-19, the National Health Commission has undone what it did just one week earlier, and has eliminated the distinction between how cases would be classified in Hubei province and other regions. Cases will now be reported under two categories: “suspected cases” and “confirmed
A very little. The big five remain mostly shut: Similar in other indicators: The Global Times reports on a scene that must be replayed all over China right now: Beijing district official confirmed on Tuesday that one of its government employees has been infected with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), causing 69 more in quarantine, but
Iron ore prices for February 19, 2020: Spot is again struggling versus paper. Different miners are saying different things: Australian miner Fortescue said that its iron ore shipments remain on schedule and that it had not had any issues with customer payments as a result of the coronavirus outbreak in its main market of China.
DXY has blasted off: Once again, the Australian dollar sits on the cliff edge: EMs were stronger: Gold runs on: Oil popped: Metals meh: And miners: Plus EM stocks: Junk is still fine: Bonds were soft: Stocks, or should I say Nasdaq, to the moon: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap The FOMC minutes just released offered
Who can forget this absolute public policy shocker by the RBA: Ready for round eight? In it’s most recent Statement, the RBA noted: Wages growth was broadly as expected in the September quarter. The majority of firms in the liaison program continue to expect little change in wages growth over the next year, and only
Via S&P: China’s health emergency will disrupt economic activity throughout Asia-Pacific. S&P Global Ratings anticipates the region’s GDP will expand by 4.3% in 2020, 0.5 percentage points (ppt) lower than our pre-outbreak forecast. Our forecasts are subject to much more uncertainty than normal. We expect significant growth drags of 1 ppt or more in Hong
The coronavirus property panic begins, predictably led by Domain: Melbourne’s rental market is feeling the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, as student apartments sit empty while their potential tenants wait in China for Australia to lift its travel restrictions. There are fears that if Chinese students don’t arrive soon, the apartments may stay empty for
No surpise, really, but worth noting: ANZ data show a steep drop in spending in major Australian airports in Feb reflecting #coronavirus travel bans and lower demand for international travel. Steadier spend in smaller airports suggests this is limited to international travel. @Adelaide__T #ausecon @DavidPlank12 pic.twitter.com/eVhCcJ9piT — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) February 19, 2020
Via the AFR: Gu Xiaojie, the Chinese Consulate General in Sydney, declined to specify whether he had asked the state ministers – including the NSW deputy premier and ministers for health and education – to lobby Canberra to lift the extended travel ban on flights from China. …”Some people are saying the situation will affect
Via Straits Times: South Korea reported 15 new cases of the coronavirus on Wednesday (Feb 19), bringing the total number of people infected in the country to 46, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said in a statement. Of those, 13 were in Daegu and neighbouring North Gyeongsang province, with 11 of them
Twiggy Forrest wants to entrench the east coast gas cartel with his LNG import terminal. Now the Stokes family is into it, at the AFR: Seven Group Holdings boss Ryan Stokes has urged the Morrison government to maintain regulatory certainty in the oil and gas industry as a way to boost east coast gas supply
Coronavirus leads to GDP downgrades The outbreak of the coronavirus has forced downward revisions to our GDP forecasts from our (US, China, & Global) economists (2020e GDP growth -20bp to 2.9%). The downgrades have been most severe in 1) China & 2) Q1 2020. While uncertainty over the severity and duration of the outbreak remains,
If you believe the CCP then one ship in Japan is now more infected daily than all of China outside of Hubei. Here’s the latest from the COVID-19 elmination algo: At 04:00 on February 18, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 1749 new confirmed cases, 236 severe cases,
Via the HIA: “Despite the housing market cooling during 2019, demand for skilled trades workers remains strong, with demand in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane exceeding availability,” said HIA Economist, Angela Lillicrap. The HIA Trades Report provides a quarterly review of the availability of skilled trades and any demand pressures on trades operating in the residential
In January: Not much fire damage there but still poor over the year. Full report.
Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from –0.28% in December to –0.46% in January. The growth rate in the Leading Index remains below zero, indicating momentum
Via Reneweconomy: Victoria has announced a dramatic intervention – and set the stage for an interesting COAG meeting of state energy ministers next month – after announcing a split from national electricity rules in a bid to fast-track urgent grid upgrades and to unlock more large-scale renewables and encourage more big batteries. Victoria energy minister
Here it is. El Dorado: The key, of course, is the realised price. Thanks Vale! At these kinds of prices, FMG is literally printing money. Roughly $7bn of it over the full year delivering a trailing P/E of just 5x. But is it sustainable? At 2019 prices, the profit is slashed in half and the
Here it is: In Aussie dollars it is very shiny: Yet most prominent local miners are lagging badly (with a few notable exceptions) What gives? It’s not entirely clear why gold is rallying given DXY is also on a charge. There are two possible explanations. First, as COVID-19 threatens a pandemic, gold is bid as
Ahem…or, is confused by complex industrial relations laws: Major retail group Wesfarmers has added to the humiliation of the sector’s “endemic problem” of wage theft, with target staff being ripped off by $9 million. The Perth-based conglomerate admitted to the underpayment this morning when reporting the company’s half-year earnings. “Payroll errors” at Wesfarmers now equates
