Links 3 August 2020

Macro & Markets

 

Asia

 

Americas

 

Europe

 

Terra Specufestor

 

…and furthermore…

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

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  1. For those who may have missed it. A superb puff piece.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/definitely-the-odd-one-out-deviant-demographer-liz-allen-20200730-p55h12
    “The ‘population ponzi’ people say I’m an immigration booster and I work for big business or I’m a mouthpiece for property developers. I’m not even a property owner myself. I own a hail-damaged car and that’s it. I’ve been called a traitor to my race,” she says.
    She does have seven children so I’m guessing it’d be hypocritical for her to argue against the ponzi.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      I think Liz Allen is actually a pretty smart person but she’s deeply angry about her upbringing/childhood and can’t move past some outdated ideas about who is ‘responsible’ for her past and her disappointments. She’s hardly alone in that, either.

      If she was truly as smart as she thinks she is then she’d actually ask who is pushing the buttons that have her working as a temp academic and unable to afford a home. Someone like Peter Hoj who could have hired her permanently but who instead keeps her casual while pushing ‘left wing’ ideals (while collecting a cool million per year in salary) should surely be ringing some bells. I’m not sure the correct answer is as simple as ‘wh!te men’ in general as she is wont to argue constantly in her screeds.

    • Reminds me of an incident years ago when a lady with the social demeanour of a sulfur-crested cocky waddled over to join our (admittedly all-male) tea group, to be rebuffed with “why don’t you fk off and ruin someone else’s morning tea?” by a wild man from NT…

      • billygoatMEMBER

        All male Tea group? Is that a euphemism for all fteam?
        Any woe man with the ‘ball$’ to join a group of tea drinking me(a)n doesn’t know it’s place in pecking order. Me I like my blokes with Neanderthal like sloping skull, wide set eyes, big nose & mouth, TALL, broad shoulders, narrow hips, man hands, huge feet & a giant rooster in his pants:))) no pin headed, beady eyed, tiny mouthed, slope shouldered, dainty handed imposter for me:)

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Dan Andrews takes the most liveable city in the world and turns it into a state of disaster. What a guy…

    • When can we expect the new license plates? It certainly ain’t the education state anymore.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      I am very lucky I was turned down for several roles in Melbourne in recent years. The thought of paying $500 pw for a one-bedroom in Docklands surrounded by v!brants just so I can drink great coffee (lol) is too much to bear. I think if I move it will be Queensland. Kind of sick of the cold weather.

      • So many are planning this move.

        I’m old enough to remember the mass exodus out of Victoria to QLD in the late 80s. The parallels are amazing. Was it the recession that drove it, the end of the Japanese boom (now Chinese) or simply Bcnich’s sunspot theory – a major low at the time, resulting in similar weather patterns, as we have right now?

        Many went and most returned within five years.

        • Our rellies went and didn’t come back. They very successfully established themselves in the gc.

          • @JohnR Lol, ah no, certainly not. They set up a group of very successful inter-related family businesses. They’ve been decimated by the current circumstances but before that they lived the successful SEQ dream with all the trappings

  3. NEW ZEALAND … BREAKTHROUGH … PROPERLY DEBT FINANCING INFRASTRUCTURE …

    Lets hope Australian residential subdivision developers are participating too.

    The Infrastructure Funding and Financing Act, (with associated initiatives … google search Hon Phil Twyford NZ Government), while not perfect, is huge progress.

    Two leading legal firms perspectives (the first from January … the second just recently) may be of interest …

    Simpson Grierson helps craft funding and financing for NZ’s future infrastructure … NZ Lawyer

    https://www.thelawyermag.com/nz/news/general/simpson-grierson-helps-craft-funding-and-financing-for-nzs-future-infrastructure/208595

    Flexibility needed to fund infrastructure … Buddle Findlay Lawyers

    https://www.buddlefindlay.com/insights/flexibility-needed-to-fund-infrastructure/

    • Did Phil Twyford finally pull his finger out of his arse and do what he promised to do years ago?

  4. … Note the volumes of NZ residential building consents / approvals … on a population basis way higher than Australia … and increasing ! …

    Building consents issued: June 2020

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-june-2020

    … with this great new initiative (now monthly going forward) by Stats NZ …

    Estimated number of new homes consented per 1,000 residents (per annum) up in June year … Stats NZ

    https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/estimated-number-of-new-homes-consented-per-1000-residents-up-in-june-year

    About 7.6 new homes per 1,000 residents were consented in the year ended June 2020, Stats NZ said today.

    This is up from 7.1 new homes per 1,000 residents in the year ended June 2019, partly driven by Auckland, where the number rose from 8.5 in the June 2019 year to 9 in the June 2020 year.

    “Provisional estimates on the number of new homes consented per 1,000 residents help us account for changes in our population, allowing us to better compare the intended supply of new homes over time,” acting construction indicators manager Dave Adair said. … read more via hyperlink above …

  5. pfh007.comMEMBER

    Although serious reform to address the broken, unproductive “printing money for mates to punt on asset prices” model is too much to expect from our clown circus in Canberra, don’t let the Banking lobby and their pet economists and apologists tell you that it is too complicated or difficult.

    MyRBA: What is the new CBI Account?

    https://theglass-pyramid.com/2020/08/02/myrba-what-is-the-new-cbi-account/

    In order that the introduction of MyRBA accounts at the RBA, for the general public and non-banks, preserves as much choice as possible another new account will be introduced by the RBA at the same time. This is the CBI account (Customer Bank Investment – Full reserve – account) and was discussed in the Banker Watch – Equipment for Bootcamp. This post provides some more information about the role of the CBI account and how the CBI accounts will work

    • what will this mean for the banks, given they will then borrow from the rba I assume at greater levels instead of off shore.
      lower risk maybe.

      • pfh007.comMEMBER

        The banks will no longer be able to create money by extending credit.

        In order to make loans they will have to do what every other non-bank lender does and that is first acquire the funds they wish to invest/lend and then lend/invest it.

        They will not be borrowing from the RBA as the RBA is not a lending institution.

        They will probably sell bonds or shares to raise the money they wish to lend/invest and people who are attracted to their offer will transfer deposits from their fully reserved account at the RBA (either MyRBA or from the CBI account) to the bank’s MyRBA account.

        If a foreigner wants to lend of invest in a local bank they will need to do what they already do which is buy Australian dollars from someone who wants to sell them and buy a bond or share issued by a bank.

  6. Just as majority of covid epidemic modelers repeat that the only way to match models with the actual data is to assume that large % of population in many locations doesn’t participate in epidemic at all (i.e. have pre-existing immunity)

    Now scientific proofs emerge at the fast rate:

    https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-evidence-that-a-level-of-pre-existing-covid-19-sars-cov-2-immunity-is-present-in-the-general-population/
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0402-6
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1

    some scientist thing that due to pre-existing immunity herd immunity thresholds can be as low as 10% is some places

    • desmodromicMEMBER

      Yes, and some scientists don’t. There is a long way to go in this pandemic and the ‘weight of evidence’ will shift back and forward as more data is collected and new analyses completed. Some of what you say will prove correct, some not. Papers will written and retracted, and interpretations of the data modified.

      Bocelli made comment on the state of freedom not the state of the Science. We have such types here as well. These dills drive from Melbourne to Wodonga to buy a hamburger, and are rightly criticised.

    • That’s funny…I have read the original article, and there is no discussion of “herd immunity”. I guess the “10%” figure is another furball plucked from Doc’s woolly nether regions. Please provide a link to the “scientists” supporting this view.

      Indeed, the authors of the linked article state: “Understanding how pre-existing NP- and ORF1-specifc T cells present in the general population impact susceptibility and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is of paramount importance for the management of the current COVID-19 pandemic.”

      That is, they don’t know (yet) if these pre-existing T-cells provide a particular level of immunity. Other research has the same question mark hovering over it.

      They don’t know, but our resident epidemiologist does.

      I think it’s time for one of those LOL thingys…

  7. NEW ZEALAND …

    New residential property listings in Auckland were up 39.7% in July compared to July last year … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/106335/new-residential-property-listings-auckland-were-397-july-compared-july-last-year

    There was a flood of new residential property onto the market in July, particularly in Auckland.

    Leading property website Realestate.co.nz received 8808 new national residential listings in July, which was up 20.7% on July last year, and was the highest number of new listings for the month of July since the tail end of the last property boom in 2016.

    The rush of properties onto the market was particularly strong in Auckland where 3425 properties were newly listed for sale on the website in July, up 39.7% on July last year, and the highest number for the month of July since 2015. … read more via hyperlink above…

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    I always listen to the Fed for public health advise.

    “The US economy could benefit if the nation were to “lock down really hard” for four to six weeks, a top Federal Reserve official has said, as a senior White House official warned America was entering a new phase in which the coronavirus was “extraordinarily widespread” in rural areas as well as cities.”

  9. Can I respectfully suggest that MB stop linking to the “Economo” articles. I mean, has anyone actually looked at their “About Us” page?

    https://www.economo.co.uk/about-us/

    I can only assume that all those bios/pics are totally fake and that the website is actually run by some Russian propaganda unit in Bulgaria or something because it would be even worse if they are real. I guess the bios might possibly look legit to an ESL speaker but the photos are just too much.