Sunday Supplement: 12 July 2020

‘Sheep Country, Burra’, Douglas Dundas, 1950, Art Gallery of NSW

 

Macro & Markets

Asia

 Americas

Europe

Terra Specufestor

…and furthermore…

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

      • DominicMEMBER

        The MB Spambot leans ‘progressive’ and you were quite clearly spreading ‘messages of hate’.

        I assume you said something controversial like: “I disagree with your point of view”, which immediately consigned your comment to the bin.

          • DominicMEMBER

            I fear so. Terrible disease ‘wokeness’. And extremely contagious among the intellectually vulnerable.

            Leads to brain death, apparently.

          • Given what gets posted I’d say it is at most a very slightly woke version of Ted Bullpit.

    • Pauly
      These guys were posting a lot on info on you tube
      They must have been taking that risk for many years

      Feels to me im feeling like the same prisoner here in VIC

      • bcn – the comparison between what you experience in Australia and what you would experience in China: chalk and cheese.

        • Triage
          I guess I more meant these guys were pushing the boundaries on criticism of China. Sounds like if you shut your mouth if you are working in a good job it won’t be a problem
          I don’t understand organ harvesting etc
          Is that as widespread as we are lead to believe????

          I do feel that I’m living under a dictator in VIC

          IMHO I believe we should lock up over 70s and others if they choose and let the economy run

          There are going to be very dire consequences from this economic & property crash we face

    • Serpentza and Laowhy86 ran the “ADV China” youtube channel for many years. Basically two guys on motorcycles who went all over China and into many places westerners never see. They did some really interesting content, but unfortunately fell foul of the CCP and its secret police. In the end they barely made it out alive.

      Interview with them both here by China Uncensored: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDV4s9c9sfQ

  1. adelaide_economistMEMBER

    On the piece by Scrafton – points out all the flaws but offers no solutions. It’s not a solution to say, well, we can’t defend ourselves against China either now or in the future so let’s, um, find a way to pragmatically co-exist. That’s what we do now. Ridiculous to detail the problems and come up with a non-solution like that.

    If we are at the point where Chinese coercion has reached that level of aggression, and presuming the country hasn’t been so Sinocised by the point it happens that the mass of the population welcome it, then military defence is the ultimate option we must reserve for ourselves. The defeatism is insane and I question where it’s coming from.

    Is it older people of a certain political persuasion who have ‘given up’ on believing in anything (other than their comfortable retirement) as it seems is what we are encouraged to do these days? Are they purchased by China? Menadue’s blog has consistently followed a pretty obvious political line and this article just seems more of same. And yeah, we could ‘hide’ our defence buildup but I’m pretty sure China will be aware regardless of how many new missile systems we are importing and what sort of expansions we’ve made to Benalla.

    As for not being effective before the 2030s, no, the whole point of the defence expansion is that it barely touched the acquisition plans for major platforms like ships and subs and instead involves a whole pile of immediate capability (the LRASMs for a start) and medium term capabilities (three to five years).

    The idea that China is economically and socially capable of undertaking twenty years of oppressing the entire Asian region while pushing the US (whether it’s ‘weak’ or not) back across the Pacific without any major setbacks or flaws in its execution defies belief. The argument seems to be that the entire world, USA, China and maybe Russia excepted, should have no ability to defend themselves whatsoever because theoretically a major power could crush them.

    • Well said Adelaide Economist. I dont think Scrafton makes good points at all, he is burying his head in the sand with full knowledge he will be dead and gone when it becomes a problem. And as you point out i have not heard him offer up any solutions, he must have been a terrible defence advisor.
      The point of a strong independent defence policy is to be too bitter a pill to swallow, China after decades of one child policy may not be as casualty tolerant as it has been in previous conflicts.
      Strong regional defence relationships with Japan, South Korea Malaysia, India and Indonesia, as well as high tech military deterrents are the way forward. There is plenty we can do if we dont listen to people like Scrafton.
      He is somewhat right about the Subs though, Diesel propelled they are a waste of Money, Nuclear off the shelf is what we should be buying.

      • No billion dollar jobs for SA if we buy off the shelf. I’d rather we spent all that money to get a leaky, noisy submarine that can launch fire crackers, and give us all those high tech jobs /s

      • 100% agree on nukes/nuke subs but the issue is we need a civilian nuclear industry to support it.

        Overturning the dumb ban on nuclear when we are one of the most ideal countries for it would go a long way for that and lower energy prices.

        • DominicMEMBER

          Do you ever get the feeling that people and pollies are hostage to prevailing zeitgeist?

          Hey, all these other countries are anti-nuclear so we must be too!

          Sheep, for as far as the eye can see. I’m pretty certain that’s not good for the survival of the human race. Divergent opinions are healthy but, of course, utterly discouraged in the current age of ‘progressive thinking’ (which is neither progressive nor involves much thought).

          • In fact, I’d submit that I see zero original thinking coming out of Canberra aside from more creative ways to keep the economic ponzi scheme going. Zeitgeist of the day is the only game in town.

        • Yep we definitely need a domestic nuclear industry, far to many peoples minds and politics are stuck in the 1980s, if Apartheid South africa, could do it we can. And not just for defense purposes.
          We could develop one while operating the Submarines however
          With Nuclear subs needing refueling every 10 years or so we dont necessarily have to start with one.

        • ASPI said it best. Paraphrased: “Australia’s requirements are basically ‘a nuclear boat, without the nuclear'”.

          I assume the only reason we didn’t go down the Virginia-class path is because of the rabid minority in Australia who equate any mention of the word ‘nuclear’ with North Korea-like weapons proliferation.

          Had we had a sane policy, we could easily have changed the archaic “no nuclear except for limited medical and research use” law from the 70’s and worked with our closest ally to develop a SSN capability that was actually useful.

          We could have entered into a lease/build arrangement for American Virginia-class SSNs and built a local servicing capability at the same time. For example:

          1. Lease 2 or 3 boats and their crews from America. This would give us an immediate capability as well as the ability to start training Australian crews straight away.

          2. Enter into a build agreement whereby builds are done in the US but some components are done locally. This would gradually transition to more and more components made in Australia over the life of the agreement. I doubt the Yanks would ever agree to outsourcing the build for their SSN powerplant but there’s no reason we couldn’t build a lot of other components.

          3. With American help, create and build a local servicing capability, including nuclear powerplant. The end goal here is to be able to conduct all maintenance and refueling without requiring US capabilities.

      • ashentegraMEMBER

        Scrafton as critic does not need to offer practical alternatives. Pointing to the flaws in current thinking is a genuine and useful contribution. He makes a very good point:

        “This issues at stake in a conflict in the South China Sea would be existential for China. It is inconceivable that, whichever party initiated the fighting, China would not see defeat as unacceptable and that it would not mobilise for total war.”

        Neighbouring countries cannot accept China’s line in the sand – the Nine Dash Line. Individually, they lack the power to contest China’s behaviour and will need to submerge their differences into a coalition.

        Challenging China’s claims need not mean war, though they will need to display the capacity and willingness to take that dreadful step, and to prevail.

        An international court of arbitration ruling defining seabed boundaries would be useful, though not sufficient to end this.

        The weakest link is the Phillipines – poor, shambolic and endlessly corrupt. Work to strengthen its frail institutions would pay big dividends.

        • You make valid points, and i agree with what your saying but i still thinks Scrafton s commentary is lazy, given his credentials, his blog post could have been written by any first year student with a passing interest in geo-politics. And the points he makes are blindingly obvious
          The nine dash line is at this point a done deal. As far as territorial considerations go, its occupied.
          Unfortunenately they have not stopped there, given the lack of opposition and are now actively moving into the Natuna Sea, and patrolling within visual range of Malaysian Borneo.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        When I added the words ‘he makes some good points’ I had in mind the concluding paras of his piece

        The scenario in which Australia is left to defend itself in its maritime approaches after the US either gives up its struggle, or retreats back across the Pacific after a defeat, is also not one in which the battle will be fought where and when, and with the forces, that Australia would like. For China to take the course of attacking Australia it would need to have some vital interest at stake. It would not be, as some might argue, because it’s a bad actor and aggressive and expansionist by nature. Were China to dominate in the region as White thinks probable, it would have many other avenues to punish or coerce Australia. If China’s grievance or motivation was so great that it believed an attack was the only alternative, it is hard to believe it wouldn’t come with overwhelming force.

        To embark on a major expansion of Australia’s military forces is not the way to protect Australia. On the contrary, it is hard to see where engaging in war can result in anything but seriously adverse outcomes for Australia. The focus on military solutions results from: a sort of tunnel vision that excludes the wider consequences beyond the battlefield; a denial of China’s agency and capacity to respond to strategic developments; and a degree of historical amnesia about the unpredictable nature of war.

        I do think the announcement by the government a week or so ago makes some sense, if only in terms of signalling to the ADF that the strategic environment in which has played the last generation – providing small numbers of high quality and well trained and armed personnel to work in concert with the US/UK on operations some way from Australia (and plausibly not in Australia’s direct interest) are probably over, and that what Australia needs to prepare for is a possibly more unstable world closer to home.

        From there the whole point of Australian Defence policy needs to be looked at. I tend to agree that Australia is unlikely to face a militarily aggressive China engaging in operations against Australia short of China being threatened in some way by or from Australia. In order to carry out any such operations against Australia China would need to cross or work through a number of nations in SE Asia which it has traditionally had a thorny relationship with – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam for starters.

        A generation or more ago the stated purpose of the ADF was to ‘minimise the risk of the threat of foreign military operations against Australia, or Australian economic relationships becoming implied in Australian national decisionmaking processes.’ and I tend to think we are now drifting back to that (or something like it). For a number of years (at least since the turn of the century) Defence has been pointing out that Australia had an economic imperative of removing redundancy (particularly with manufacturing) while at the same time having a strategic imperative of needing some economic redundancy. I see the dynamic of the submarines against that backdrop. They are ‘strategic strike’ weapons, and a significant factor in the decision to go with the French submarines (who agreed to do more than the Japanese – as I understand things – inside Australia, so that we have the scope to do more inside Australia with them) was that the French have been operating with a strategic strike capability for a long time [park the sub somewhere deep and if anyone lobs something or shoots something into France they get a missile from the deeply parked sub back] where the Japanese sub was a more overtly anti shipping/submarine capacity which had been operated in relatively well known waters with very little scope for strategic strike – …….. one of the reasons everyone turned up to help look for MH 370 when it was believed to be off the coast of WA was to try and get a sense of everyone elses detection capacity

        The other facet of the discussion Scrafton points to is ‘what sort of engagement are we going to have with China?’ I wonder if it is far more likely to be not military but culturally and institutionally – and leading to economically – low level tension with occasional ratcheting up. Particularly given few nations on the planet have lowered their economic pants the way Australia has to the point of being reliant on selling raw resources to a strategic adversary/risk/threat (and levering up into non productive real estate speculation – but thats for elsewhere).

        As I see it the ‘threat’ Australia poses to China is one of non compliance with and questioning of, Chinese imperatives and shelter for those seeking to leave China. This is likely why the Chinese have already been overtly pressuring Australian institutions and buying Australian politicians – it provides a little extra traction on the squirrel grip when they want us to nod in agreement with their stated position on something. While I wouldnt say I know a lot of Chinese I do know a few and one of the things they have all mentioned is that they feel ‘free’ in Australia and somewhat released from fairly heavy state observation of almost every facet of their lives in China – it is something which appeals, is my takeaway. Those who jumped ship after Tiananmen square tend to be fairly openly hostile to the CCP (and no I dont think it is a put on for the round eye). It may be worth wondering if the ‘real’ threat Australia poses to China is the presence of large numbers of Chinese speakers (same as Canada, the US or New Zealand) able to say to people in China ‘hang on, the CCP take on XYZ issue is not all it seems and another part of the story is in this media article here…..’ [and for sure it will not be an Australian media article – unless XYZ = how do we live in a bubble?]. Of course that would be matched by an increased need for local monitoring of Chinese activities inside Australia – as for sure the Chinese would send some form of capacity here to try and coerce the party line, and presumably these would get around to doing something which was not in Australia’s national interest.

        I do wonder if it is far more that type of engagement we will be looking at and not so much the guns and bullets – though we would need to present some capacity to deploy that type of capacity – and wonder if it is more that style of engagement we should be thinking about.

        I actually knew Scrafton (and Hugh White) briefly back in the mid 1990s when he was (from memory) Assistant Sec Force Development in Defence (White was DepSec after having been Bob Hawke’s strategic advisor) when as a ‘GAA’ I was shunted there for 4 months to get me ‘exposure to ‘broader defence functions and activities’ en route to being an industrial relations type.

        • Thank you for your detailed and interesting reply.
          “I do wonder if it is far more that type of engagement we will be looking at and not so much the guns and bullets – though we would need to present some capacity to deploy that type of capacity – and wonder if it is more that style of engagement we should be thinking about.”
          I think this is the crux of the issue, we need to present at least a credible threat, and that will require a larger defence budget, and some hard choices, about where we spend that money.

          I have read his article again to see if i missed somehing and i find his logic a bit flawed ” In fact, if China were the aggressive hegemon that the US and some in government paint it, the prospect of Australia being more able to resist an attack from the 2030s onwards might actually provoke it to strike earlier” for example.
          Scrafton has obviously had some influence in Australia’s defence policy in the 90s early 2000s, and the story of him and his contemporaries has been consistent failure on many levels, unarmed ANZAC frigates, not deployable helicopters various types of, LHD s, general neglect of the Army prior to East Timor. i wonder if this why he covers his eyes, ignores the history of the CCP or he is just a not very clever guy who rose far above his abilities.

          • PaperRooDogMEMBER

            Yes, we’re never going to be able to beat China without some strong allies but if we can offer a “a credible threat” at least in the short term (our allies are likely to take a long time to get organised) it may be enough to prevent the possibility of attack.

            Extreme case: If China did come to blows in the SCS & the rest of world black listed them would they try to take one country that can supply nearly all their economic requirements ie Aus? Far fetched probably & unlikely as they should still be able to get most of what they need via African allies etc.

          • My biggest takeaway is the part about China potentially not being the aggressive hegemon that the US and some in government make it out to be. Is this goose serious?

        • Gunna, recommend you grab a copy of Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

          We should all hope so.

        • “In order to carry out any such operations against Australia China would need to cross or work through a number of nations in SE Asia which it has traditionally had a thorny relationship with – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam for starters”

          All of whom will happily look the other way, relieved the fleet isn’t sailing against them. This time.

          The US alliance – and to a lesser degree the US nuclear umbrella under which Australia shelters – is the only thing stopping the CCP from attempting a more aggressive expansion and domination of the Indo-Pacific.

          It’s “slicing the salami” now, and has been for a few decades, because the CCP doesn’t have the power projection capabilities at sea. When that equation is sufficiently changed – which it will once the CCP finishes militarising the “islands” it has built in the South China Sea, giving it credible A2AD – I’m betting we’ll find a much more aggressive Chinese navy.

          For now they’re content to intimidate and sink the ships of their neighbours using their sham fishing fleet and their “coastguard” (read: white-painted navy).

    • In a situation like thus its best to look at what chyna want and don’t want. We know the worst thing for them would be if Australia became part of the USA. So if we drew a line in the sand and told them that if they crossed it we would consider becoming part of the USA I think they would respect that line.

      • I think this is what is all about.

        The side we’re on was picked for us a few months ago.

        There was a point in time where a switch was flicked it wasn’t an Omni-enlightening, It all seems very deliberate and coordinated and I have some faith in American protection.

      • It’s impossible to accurately predict an adversary’s intentions. It is much easier to gauge their capabilities.

        The CCP is building its sea power projection capability (2 carriers now, 2 more being built) in parallel with extensive A2AD capability in the South China Sea.

        It seems fairly obvious to me that China isn’t building those capabilities only to leave them unused.

    • It is a central component of Chyna’s expansion strategy to convince the ‘target’ that resistance to their power is futile and counter productive.

      Means this dude is working for the enemy

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Once you understand China’s strategic weakness, you’ll realise all the ‘aggression’ is China’s trying to gain control of the South China Sea without a navy.

      • PaperRooDogMEMBER

        with new missile development a full on navy may not be required like it used to be, but it certainly helps project power.

    • Bear Bullwinkle

      Any country that continually screws its citizens in every conceivable way will struggle to raise a groundswell of support for defence against a juggernaut like China. The youth of Australia are not interested in dying for the freedom of franking credit sculling, Rhine-cruise taking Baby Boomers, the latest 300K FOB migrants, or our glorious Big 4 banks.

      If we should fight in the name of democracy, give us something resembling democracy first, instead of two parties with a duopoly on power and agreements not to differ on any issue of actual importance to the country.

      Some credibility would also help, after the last generation of patriotic youth got sent off to Iraq and Afghanistan.

    • Apart from the fact we are pawns in the US anti-China game and US military industrial complex pressure for endless global hegemony, there appears a basic disconnect by many commenters. Namely, simultaneous with China’s alleged rising global threat is its alleged impending economic collapse. Go figure.

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        Yeah, I mean that seems so impossible. We definitely have no historical examples of the way that countries were able to reorder their economic system after a collapse and turn themselves into a massive war machine. None at all.

        • Just an observation of usual commentary here. China threat. China collapse. China has less imperative to develop a war machine in the traditional (US) sense – expensive, cumbersome, 20th century. China’s strength lies elsewhere.

      • China’s death star in the Spratly Islands (despite condemnation in the Hague), destruction of neighboring civilian boats, escalating border conflict with India, et. al. are not indicative of an expansionist threat? This Murican propaganda? You’re a lunatic. Thankfully you are becoming a minority opinion now.

          • When was the last time the US seized 1 million square nautical miles for itself? Anyway, we’re not discussing the US, though. Is China expansionist hegemon or not? You’re simply morally bankrupt or intellectually dishonest.

          • Mmmmn. It’s called the South China Sea…anyway China needs to secure shipping routes and establish some territorial authority in this important region. Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the end of stable Pacific is good layman’s read.

          • “Its called the south china sea” that seems like an incredibly childish reason to support the annexation of 1000s of sqm of territory that are nowhere near china, and are part of other countries legally defined EEZ. Have a good look at a map.

          • So it’s ok to seize anything that’s in your strategic interest to do so? You can’t make up this kind of idiocy.

    • The erroneously opposite point of view was Ambrose EP in the Torygraph last week. Scrafton suffers USA derangement syndrome, like 40-45% of the Aussie electorate and their representatives.

  2. johnoconnorMEMBER

    Christopher Allen in today’s Australian:

    “A couple of years ago the leader of the NSW Labor opposition lost an election after telling a group of voters at what he thought was a private meeting that their homes would all be bought by Asians with PhDs. This was a crude appeal to racial resentment and fear; but he could have gone further and told them that these PhDs were raising the bar for success in the modern world. The mediocrity and complacency of middle Australia would have to change, starting with attitudes to education.”

    And then he goes on:

    “There are plenty of things about the new international order we legitimately criticise and that we should try to change: above all, the mindless consumerism and the consequent destruction of the environment. But we must all learn to accommodate these conditions or risk becoming a permanent underclass. The most urgent adaptation is economic, but the more important one is cultural, finding a way, like the Japanese, of preserving the values we hold dear while surviving in radically changed conditions.”

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      I’m not touching the rayce stuff with a barge pole except to say that I have worked with many people with PhDs and very few of them earn the big dollars required to buy property, at least the expensive stuff. Many high intellectual achievers (in my very humble experience) struggle to understand the rather important nature of how organisations (and people) work and operate and rarely are able to translate their intellectual nous into climbing the ladder. You have to be smart and savvy and maybe even a little bit feral to get anywhere outside of very niche, usually technical, areas.

      There’s also the issue of people who are really smart with a PhD and people who have PhDs that are great at rote learning but have no serious ability to manage ambiguity or invent creative solutions to the sorts of problems you have to regularly solve outside of academia. But sure, you can see the obvious choice and difference made in migration intake as to whether we want an overclass or an underclass.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        In business the usual expression is along the lines of: why would I go to the trouble of obtaining a PhD when I can just employ people with one?

      • many “high intellectual achievers” don’t want to “translate their intellectual nous into climbing the ladder”
        people who have great desire to do such things rarely go on path where a decade needs to be spend learning and working hard just, at the end, to be at the beginning of a career.
        And many are very smart, broadly educated and wise but simply don’t want to participate in a rat race up corporate/bureaucratic ladders.

      • desmodromicMEMBER

        AE, a few too many generalisations and presumptions I think. No-one with a PhD got it by rote learning because it is degree by thesis, except politicians and sports stars given honorary doctorates. Fckn. Having got the PhD most/many will be committed to their intellectual pursuits and aren’t interested in your ‘ladder of success’ in the real estate market. That said, maintaining a scientific career in this country is fickle and some with good maths/modeling skills are late entrants to the financial sector. I suspect your sample is biased.

        Edit. I agree with DrX! Fckn

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          AE, Good analysis, When young It thought Barry Jones was really smart till realized he just had a good memory and didn’t really think outside the square. Intelligence in my opinion is not measured by academia or quiz show prowess

          • Ulrike Meinhof

            What a strange thing to say
            Did you ever read “Sleepers Wake”
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleepers,_Wake!
            Lots of innovative ideas in that book especially for 1980’s Australia
            Did you ever listen to Barry talk about the monumental stupidity of GDP?
            Barry could rattle off 100 critical aspects of human / social experience which GDP failed, in any way, to measure. Yet this became our primary economic management tool
            Did you ever talk with Barry about Industrial Policy? You know having factories and people skilled at making stuff (it’s unpopular today but this was before the Hawke/Keating reforms)

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Ulrike, that’s for that, re BJ might have a rethink, I made that opinion many many years ago so maybe time to change.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Yep, having more PhDs is definitely not a route to success. Frankly, most PhDs (the qualifications on their own) are economically useless and the people who have them are not entrepreneurially minded, in my experience, which is where your real drivers of economic progress come from.

        I have recollections of a heated conversation with a woman many years ago who was furious that I earned a lot more than her – she had a PhD and worked as a ‘researcher’ (in some non-profit capacity) while I was working in a commercial capacity. Her angle was that she should be earning more as she had higher academic qualifications than me! (Ah, so by that logic, you should be earning more than Bill Gates then!). And so on … ‘bright’ but not so bright.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          If AE is an academic economist then his comment on PhD’s and not climbing the corporate ladder are probably true from his perspective bias. But from my own perspective bias I’ve worked with plenty of people in Finance who have collected PhD’s along the way, mainly through Engineering (weirdly I never came across a PhD in Woman’s studies). Most of them were Asian, very few Australian born and all of them bought houses in nice areas.

          PhD’s may have been an exaggeration for the politician who got caught out – but credentialism is an important signalling mechanism in the meritocracy, and as a hoop to jump through in order to get a ‘Skilled Working Visa’ getting a heavier Uni degree is just part of the process.

          To say that you are likely to be bought out and replaced by Asians credentialed with multiple degrees is closer to the truth, one that I have observed both in work and in the neighborhood.

    • Bear Bullwinkle

      What values, that house prices always go up? That the LNP are better economic managers?

  3. “In the end, a disease like this, like a plague of ancient times, will keep going as long as hosts present themselves for it, so we have to cut the transmission cycle.”
    Aunty Helen Clark
    (newly appointed Virus Enquiry Chief)

    Helen is one of the few NZ PMs that could appeal to the logic and reasoning of both sides of politics.
    She never dumbed down the language yet the pragmatic examples in her message reached all levels of understanding.
    Not a charismatic orator by any stretch but a clever communicator.
    Not Fake.

    Do I remember her policies? No.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      I have vaguely positive memories of her (as an Australian) but usually I find when you spend any time looking at any of the people who received media worship they more or less co-operated with terrible policy making regardless. In Australia the veneration of Paul Keating and to a lesser extent Bob Hawke is starting to wear off as people realise what they sold us, but there’s an awful lot of ‘true believers’ invested in the search for the next Gough. I imagine it’s the same in NZ.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Well you may say god save the queen but Gough’s incites will be revealed within the week and hopefully not too much blck out.

    • Rowan McKenzie

      A virus like this would have been completely unremarkable in ancient times, even just a few decades ago. Its only now with a huge artificial population of really old people, kept alive purely by modern medicine, that we’re seeing many deaths to it.

      • not only that, but without good tools for genetic sequencing this virus would still be a bad flu

      • Modern travel has allowed it to cross borders with incredible efficiency, which would have been unlikely even 60 years ago..

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      Helen Clarke’s govt did some great stuff, reduced the handing out of public assets to the private sector. Dramatically reduced govt debt, built up by the previous national govt, during the boom times of the early 2000s, which allowed the sleaze merchant that followed her to run it back up post GFC, from which it has never really recovered.

      I was working my first job in NZ post graduation during her second term – I wasn’t a fan of the expansion of welfare for working families that I had to pay for as a single person. Think that was a strategic mistake, given the surplus the country was running, they should have given targeted tax relief to families instead. Would have blunted political attacks from the opposition in the third term and undercut their key promises of tax cuts (which they ludicrously followed through on going into the then biggest financial crisis in 100 years).

      Personally I think the lives of ordinary kiwis would be much better now if she’d been PM through the GFC and through the recovery.

      • I didn’t follow politics during Helen’s period as PM but I remember my die-hard National supporting family had positive comments about her. This made me intrigued about her messaging to people and how she could bridge the gap between the two sides.

        She’ll be great as Virus Enquiry Chief. Diplomatic yet frank and firm.

  4. Re AUD
    On CFTC open contracts the market is square shorts are gone
    But I think cash market AUD is positioned long
    I think AUD has run out of steam
    You could see last night very decent bounce in SPX but AUD slightly lower
    Don’t feel AUD has enough buyers to push AUD up meaningfully at this stage

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    FYI Ermo you bogan douchebag I have bogans drive past and yell sh#t at me all the time, you can they’re lost and looking for the ring road out to f#ckwitville….

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I don’t believe it happened as Jane says it did.
      How often do you keep your fken mouth shut when you hear BS.

    • Jevons ghostMEMBER

      Take a second look. To my mind that’s not a bush scene; rather, it’s a scene of utter desolation.

      Two hundred years ago that largely ephemeral grassland would most likely have been a dry sclerophil forest. What’s left now are a few gaunt carcasses scattered about a set of scalped hillsides. A scene endlessly repeated across this country. Although some landholders are starting to get the message regarding the importance of repairing the damage we have done and are adopting regenerative agriculture methods, there’s an awful lot of repairing to be done. And it needs to start big time now. Climate change is biting us in the b*m, and embracing wholesale re-aforestation is one of the very best ways of ameliorating it. Otherwise it will be all over red rover in the not too distant future.

      Where is the lost child when we need her, Gunna? Next week maybe?

        • Jevons ghostMEMBER

          I’m familiar with Makarieva’s work and personally I think that her logic is sound when it comes to the beneficial effects that forests have on rainfall and the local (small) water cycle. Not so sure about the wind generation effect though.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          I dont know about wind, but I know a few who swear black and blue that the rainfall of southern coastal NSW has declined big time since the forests were heavily logged.

          I tend to see it more as the entire frontal weather systems are being pulled further south by the speeding up of the katabatic winds in Antarctica caused by the increased difference between the water temperature in surrounding seas and land temperatures.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Wind and rain are the same phenomenon observed in different attributes – they are both functions of atmospheric pressure which changes with water vapour greatly.

            Rereading Gibbons Decline and Fall, the passages regarding the vast morass that was the forest stretching from the Euxine shores to the Baltic coast always atest to a climate so frigid the Danube was readily passable by man on horseback and carriage trains….

          • @Mig talking of which I’ve got Vol 2 (never had Vol 1) of Two Expeditions into the interior of Southern Australia by Charles Sturt, which I’ll have a crack at if I ever get thru the Black Swan.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Nice one John. I’d never heard of…
            Now you’ve given me something to do, beauty!

      • Well put. I also looked at that haunting scene of semi-deforestation and wondered how it would look today. I suspect it would now resemble the land out near Burke.

        Two hundred years of deforestation and strip mining Straya’s thin arid soils has left it badly exposed to GW. Add in fuel shortage and we’re facing a far more intractable and dangerous problem than the virus. Just ordered Julian Cribb’s ‘Food or War’; title’s self explanatory.

      • You might be right about the desecration of some area’s but this area isn’t one you can score points with. Burra is on the Monaro – Aboriginal for Treeless Plains…… Maybe it was them that did it since it was like that before we arrived.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Itag, thanks for your compliments. I am more than happy to cough up some links for the MB cognscenti.

      Glad you like the pic. As someone who has done time up near Burra my recollection is that that is broadly how it looked.

      Jevons G I completely agree we need to do something about global warming. Weirdly enough my thoughts are that many farmers (most of those I know, and I am related to some – not in Burra) are already acutely aware of the implications of global warming, over grazing or over production, erosion and salt. Maybe not enough to actually get a better outcome but aware of what is unfolding in their patch.

      To be honest I think the game is over, and that we are looking at a much warmer future, and the question from here is possibly not how to we maintain what we have (or had a generation ago) but rather how are we going to shape things. Given Australia’s utterly feeble global competitive position, a need to keep bums on seats in jobs, a quite likely need to continue importing people (whether that need is ‘real’ or not I think that will be the message sold) I find myself wondering about geo-engineering.

      Yes I know that will offend some/many (and I am sorry for the offence) but limited as my thinking capacity may be I find myself thinking we need much more happening outside Sydney Melbourne Brisbane and almost anything away from the coast would have to involve getting much greater volumes of water down the Darling and Murray. I completely agree with re afforestation, but I dont think it is likely to happen on a big enough scale (particularly given we seem to be welded to the population ponzi). Taking cotton farms and water speculation out behind the shelter shed and driving a stake through their hearts is a start, but ultimately I find myself wondering if we start doing something up North QLD vis collecting water (or maybe even generating with desalination plants) and shunting it south is going to be a key part of that process. I know it isnt ‘natural’ and I know it is a massive man made intervention in the environment, but my personal opinion is that we arent going to get back to where we were and we need to start working on where we are going.

      If I can find an artisistic representation suitable for next week I will

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Yep thats what I am thinking.

          Although maybe sending it down Cooper Creek into Lake Eyre may be worth thinking about too.

          • desmodromicMEMBER

            Gunna, I hope not. The Lake Eyre Basin is one of the few remaining large river basins that aren’t messed up with changed water regimes through dams or water extraction. It is hugely productive for wildlife and beef cattle because the land wets and dries. Putting more water in will mess it up just as bad as the Murray-Darling but for different reasons. The locals have fought previous proposals to extract water for irrigation or add water via the Bradford Scheme. They will fire up at any suggestion changes the natural flows.

      • Jevons ghostMEMBER

        My thoughts regarding the reparative benefits gained from the wide-spread adoption of regenerative agricultural and silvicultural principles by the landholding community.

        Currently the debate about climate change is centred around addressing the CO2 emissions from coal fired power stations and industry. And how difficult it is to get the government to commit to realistic (mandated?) CO2 emission targets. While conveniently ignoring the fact that agricultural activities such as cropping and grazing are responsible for at least 30% of greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these emissions, methane, nitrous oxide and nitrogen dioxide amongst them, can be linked to the heavy use of nitrogenous fertilisers. When combined with routine tillage or heavy grazing, this practice contributes to the loss of soil vitality and carbon content over time. The widespread destruction of floodplains and forests, together with the land developers penchant for converting natural waterways into drains further exacerbates this entropic process. Simply put, when water loss to the sea surpasses water returned from the sea the land dries out.

        Regenerative farmers aim to reverse this destruction of the natural landscape in a number of ways. They work to ensure that no bare patch of soil exists on their cropland or pasture. They prefer not to till the ground, so as to preserve the integrity of the soil, and they do not allow livestock to destroy existing herbaceous vegetation by overgrazing. They use cover crops of perennials wherever possible, oversowing these with cash crops year round. Wherever possible they will repair eroded creek lines and rehabilitate adjacent floodplains. They work to reduce or even eliminate the use of non-organic fertilisers, pesticides, herbicides and fungicides on their land. The best of them have demonstrated that when used appropriately these methods will significantly increase soil carbon, soil nutrient content, rainwater infiltration and depth of productive soils, as well as reduce the loss of valuable topsoil through erosion. Overall, only half a percent increase in soil carbon on 2 percent of our agricultural land is required to sequester all of Australia’s CO2 emissions.

        Unfortunately the regenerative agriculture community is currently fragmented, and unlike the National Farmers Federation does not operate as an effective lobbying organisation.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          I actually know a guy who believes Australia needs to get out of cattle and sheep and go all in on farming kangaroos for their lesser effect on the ground cover. I dont know if that would be any more regenerative.

          • Jevons ghostMEMBER

            We have farmers in Australia who have adopted Alan Savory’s Holistic grazing principles, and others who have gone a step further and developed an intensive farming method termed cell grazing. I can’t see graziers giving up cloven-foot animals on the land, but if sheep and cattle are managed using the above-mentioned methods the land may start to recover. As an aside, I know of a grazier in WA who feeds his cattle with charcoal laced with molasses. He has demonstrated that the carbon-rich cow pats are then delivered up to a metre underground by dung beetles. If this innovative approach was adopted country-wide we might eventually get a significant carbon soil sequestration rate. After all, charcoal can easily be made by any farmer who has fallen timber lying about his property.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            I tend to agree that something like what you are talking about would be best, but I tend to have a somewhat dystopian vision of what I think will probably happen.

            What I think will happen will be (something like)

            1. We need lots of work, we need lots of government spending, we need to do something about the climate ==== lets spend on canals, pipelines and desal plants, and plant some trees.
            2. All the cotton farms in Northern NSW are taking the water, all the water licence holders are taking the water (speculating) ===== lets spend more on desal plants canals and pipelines and lets provide windfall gains for water speculation and cotton farmers (connected with Tory Ministers) and buy their licenses off them at top dollar.
            3. A once in a generation flood overwhelms the storages and causes significant damage in NSW, SA and Northern VIC, rising salt caused by increased water is becoming a bigger issue, and the soil fertility limits the benefit of all that extra water ===== lets spend more on storage dams, lets splash more cash on working out what we can do with salt and increasing soil fertility
            4. Farms which are starting to produce more agricultural products (including in demand cash crops) need more infrastructure to get produce to wherever and have issues getting labour ===== lets spend on ‘Big Rail’ – Mildura to Broken Hill/Wilcannia, more visas for punters agreeing to go inland, more housing, more hospitals, more schools
            5. After 10-15 years of reforestation a generational fire wipes out half the trees ===== lets spend on more trees

            and on and on

            Eventually we will start digging our own inlets from the sea (lets Start Fowlers Bay SA) and create our own water frontage, building our own mountain ranges to attract the orographic uplift etc. It wont be efficient, it probably will be immensely wasteful and a lot of it will seem crazy – buy my innate pessimism sees us heading off that direction.

          • Jevons ghostMEMBER

            Some of the more progressive farmers/graziers that have introduced holistic/regenerative farming methods on their own land, and who have mentored other farmers have indicated to me that more widespread adoption of these methods will crucially depend on expert mentoring being readily available.

            And of course, if a fair and equitable price on carbon were introduced, then once the bulk of conservative small and medium acreage farmers were made aware that they could make a worthwhile profit out of introducing regenerative agricultural methodologies the situation might change for the better.

          • Know IdeaMEMBER

            As fate would have it, I am in the process of installing the infrastructure required to implement a regenerative agricultural system. This is in the Snowy Mountains, just up the road from the property of One of Australia’s luminaries on the practice, Dr Charles Massy.

            To my admittedly inexperienced eye, conventional agriculture in Australia seems to have more in common with mining than farming.

          • desmodromicMEMBER

            Gunna, the idea of ‘farming’ kangaroos has been around for at least 40 years. It makes sense in terms of producing high quality meat and leather with potentially less impact on the land. However, there are issues. Kangaroos are at their densest inside the dingo fence where they can graze ‘marsupial lawns’ created by sheep and have access to water. Kangaroos aren’t particularly compatable with fences, so how do you hold onto ‘your’ stock? Also they can’t be trucked or yarded. So the only option is wild harvest and then only in the sheep rangelands where they are protected from predation by dingoes. Outside the dingo fence the populations are much sparser and shooting isn’t viable. The environmental cost of maintaining the sheep industry in the rangelands is huge. Along with more kangaroos there are more goats and the damage to vegetation by mouths of all types is extreme. Indeed to the extent that the grazing changes fire regimes over the long term and the vegetation has been changed permanently. There are no easy options.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I’m all for farming kangaroos. Although it will be difficult for them to steer the tractors without opposable thumbs but the thousands of extra long R.M. Williams boots sales will be a huge boost to the economy. And super cute.

      • buttzilla 266MHz

        got it, give up – dumb growf is the only way. you sound like every senator / adviser. GIVE UP! pointless growf! = success! You make me wan’t to leave Australia forever.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          ….and you make me wonder if trying a ‘Members Only’ sunday supplement next week is the way to go.

          Thanks

          • ashentegraMEMBER

            A Sunday Members section? Please do, Gunna. The trolling here is disgusting and copious. The purposeless vulgarity (not Reusa) alienates many, particularly women.

            I have learned to skippy over many names in comments – regard them as’ damage’.

            A worthy experiment.
            There is a serious debate to be had about Australia, its economy and politics. MB used to serve this function. It could again.

      • What’s the political solution to:

        ‘farmers (most of those I know, and I am related to some – not in Burra) are already acutely aware of the implications of global warming, over grazing or over production, erosion and salt.’?

        The National Party no longer serves sole or SME farmers, taking them for granted, but caters to corporate farmers (also taking advantage of sub-optimal water management), and more egregiously, promoting the rights of mining and energy companies over small farmers.

        Should (declining numbers of) farmers ‘lobby’ their own party of which many have memberships to focus upon agriculture versus urban based corporate interests, or as many were tempted in the past, start voting Labor for policy action?

      • I reckon you posted the same view of Burra from a different artist some months ago, more sort of Heidelberg school…does it ring a bell?

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Sorry mate I couldnt tell you without goping back and searching – I dont keep the pics each week. Generally I just open up the NGV and AGNSW sites and pick something ‘Australian’ or maybe Kiwi and load away.

          I think an occasional dose of painting a good thing.

  6. Anecdata… In Coolum beach.. rentals have dropped from 125 available to 52…and houses for sale dropped from 485 to 435 in last few months…but only 6-7 in the sold section….Where have they gone…? Air BnB? Took off market..

    • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

      The Queensland resort markets seem strong to me. For houses at least. Apartments might be slow. Probably cashed up people getting the F outta Sydney and Melbourne. Anyone have reports from the ground for gold or sunshine coasts?

      • Just look up urgent keyword listings on the GC and around. It’s a bloodbath up there.

        • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

          I don’t know what it’s normally like. Assuming ‘sold’ prices can be believed I am still seeing sold prices that are higher, sometimes significantly so, than similar places from 2018 & 2019. A while back I emailed an agent about a place that was originally listed at $1.75 and sat. Then it switched to “ask agent’. I waited another month and finally asked how much’? He said $1.5M. I just saw someone allegedly paid $1.65M. There must really be a sucker born every minute. Some places are still sold in a week. Go figure. Thinking back to when the GFC hit CA, I do recall the same odd patterns happening until the implosion was too big to ignore. Random sales that were way overpriced . Many of those were fraud form the days of drive by appraisals whereby the seller and buyer worked together to defraud the lender by overpaying at high LTV then walking away. It was called “first payment default” because the buyer never made a single payment on their 95% LTV loan and was never seen again. I think it is harder to do in Australia.

    • Work from home crowd choosing to do it from the beach? Sticking with anecdata, I’ve got a couple of friends in Brisbane who’ve chosen this path. Good option if you can do it. And possibly a trend of the future?

  7. so I wonder who is going to catch the virus first? Trump or Biden?
    Which one has better chance of survival?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Biden’s VP pick is most likely to be the surviving President By the end of 2020

      • 1 Also, I read an article over the weekend that mulls whether Trumpy is about to dump Pence for Nicky Halley. If that happens then it will be a near certainty that in this coming term the yanks will have their first female president. Plus, it is highly likely that they will get their first ethnic Indian president (Kamala Harris’s mother is ethnic Indian as are both of Halley’s parents.)

      • https://twitter.com/JACoelho93/status/1281935802713268226/photo/1

        Morrison – deserves it for going to the footy and having a fake nickname. Growing up every Australian nickname had a simple format – usually the shortening a long name or lengthening a short name. A nickname that combined both first and last name was unheard of, so when “ScoMo” was announced it was obviously inauthentic. Shame no-one asked him where that name came from and who from his past first called him it.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          He coined it himself, then got 2GB hacks to repeat it until it stuck.

          It’s all about the spin. Wish he’d stop spinning that stupid scarf though. At the league that’s for little kids and proud Nannas, and even Nannas will tell the kids to grow up.

          • My pet hate is Politicians trying to be relatable when it’s clearly a faux effort and no substance. Makes them punch-able.

          • One thing that impressed me about Turnbull is that he did not don the lastic side boots, the moleskins, the blue double pocketed long sleeve shirt and the akubra every time he went bush.

  8. DoctrorX, yesterday you claimed (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/07/weekend-reading-11-12-july-2020/#comment-3931712) that Sweden is nearing herd immunity, with 5,526 deaths in a population of 10,300,000, being a rate of 5.36×10^-4

    That would mean that the US is also nearing herd immunity with 134,712 deaths currently in a population of 330,000,000, being a rate of 4.08×10^-4

    Let us put a line in the sand with your claims. If you believe in yourself, commit to writing a figure here of the total number of deaths that will occur in the US when it reaches the “herd immunity” that you’re claiming Sweden is reaching. Plus or minus 20% is fine. Then we can refer back to this post and you’ll be worshipped as the new Nostradamus.

    So, what’s the figure, ±20%? Go!

    • Reusa

      Solar activity report for this week for you
      Solar activity very low with zero sunspots this week
      Be careful when solar activity is very low

      Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2020
      Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
      Posted: Thursday, July 9, 2020

      Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
      SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2020

      IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

      IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

      IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 09/0243Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1554Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0855Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.

      The calm before the storm as they say

      After you’ve put away your bedtime penthouse mag, good reading for you

      • The more I quietly sit here this morning, looking at a few charts & taking into consideration the general change in sentiment slowly turning towards people understanding the devastation to the global economy, the reality that there is no going back to what we had with more and more lock downs……and also the solar activity being so low…..the day traders going nuts speculating like a casino……the tech stocks like TESLA, After Pay, price movements from the low to increases of 100’s of % to 1,000% in just 3 months……the issue now is TESLA is a great car…..but if we are in a global depression who is going to be able to afford to buy one, similar to after pay less money around to buy

        My feeling we are getting very close to a major correction (2nd wave crash) continuation of the February March Crash, that this time will take property with it

        It’s just got too insane

        I am not falling for it

      • @bcn what’s more is that Google stock has hit an all time high. Prices are above where they were when they crashed during the first lockdown. How is that possible?

        • Gav
          Because this virus lockdown has accelerated the move towards online business, commercial realestate is crashing beyond belief. The shift was happening but has been brought by many years.
          Many traditional companies are going to go broke
          You can see that all the IT cloud online businesses have broken new highs but ASX and DOW, bankrupt banks and tourism traditional retailers are going broke
          They are major over priced but it’s clear there has been a huge rotation out of these stocks since April as we head into the new world

          Doesn’t mean the share value isn’t at insane prices, I’ve always been more traditional in my thinking but if we see a big sell off, I’m moving more into these online NASDAQ type companies
          These companies will be the world leaders in the next decade

        • Steve,
          Just go to google on your I phone and type in TESLA SHARE PRICE YAHOO and go to weekly chart on yahoo
          What is that ,,,,, looks like the launch of his SPACEX not a car company that makes 80,000 cars per qtr and loses a fortune or what ever numbers they are
          Like we know companies can trade 500x can go to 1,000x but they can also go to 50x too
          For me it’s the top

  9. Failed Baby BoomerMEMBER

    doctorX,
    I think you have a valid stance on the Virus.
    The vaccine is a long time away and we have to live with it.
    The initial modelling and scare scenarios have mostly been proven very much overstated.
    I think we should focus on locking down the vulnerable and modulate public lock down measures based on hospital loading.
    Several countries and regions are showing us that it can be managed with less economic damage.

    • But we don’t know who is vulnerable and why. I mean yes older people are, but some young people who appear otherwise completely healthy end up in ICU on a death bed. It seems 1% are vulnerable, but the bigger fall out is the chronic fatigue many experience after. How productive will people with chronic fatigue be post Covid-19? I think the fall out will be far greater if we throw our hands up and just let it rip.

      Perhaps a sensible middle ground is mandatory masks in public, with council employees disinfecting public spaces and mandated WFH and closed pubs, but open up in other ways with social distance guidelines in place. Problem is people ignore social distancing.

      • when it comes to risk groups after so many million infected and over half a million dead we know as much as we will ever – statistical sample of that size is enormous
        even you say that 1% is at risk yet we lockdown 99% who are not at risk and could make sure society functions at almost normal levels.
        Some young that appeared to be healthy did die but their percentage is so tiny and probably much smaller than number of young healthy people dying from violence or suicide caused or amplified by the covid measures.

        the measures you are proposing are still there to prevent the spread so just delay inevitable while suffering continues. Those measures can be useful to flatten the curve so health care doesn’t get overwhelmed but that’s not what our government is trying – they are trying to suppress without any plan for the end game. It’s just kicking the can down the road at the very high costs (new Melbourne lockdown is going to be even more disastrous for economy, mental health, social fabric …)

      • We don’t lock down with glandular fever around – and that has long term chronic fatigue links.

  10. UNITED STATES …

    PERSPECTIVE: U. S. COVID-19 DEATHS AND URBAN POPULATION DENSITY … WENDELL COX … NEW GEOGRAPHY

    https://www.newgeography.com/content/006707-perspective-u-s-covid-19-deaths-and-urban-population-density

    There is wide consensus that the COVID-19 virus spreads person-to-person, especially in confined spaces that are insufficiently ventilated. It is exacerbated by prolonged proximity, which John Brooks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s chief medical officer indicates is 15 minutes or more of unprotected contact with someone less than 6 feet away. Avoiding such proximity is the justification for social distancing and face masks and the lockdowns that have been implemented around the world.

    Preventing infection means minimizing exposure density, which is the duration of risky contacts that can be estimated using factors from population density to much more precise measures of crowding that vary by personal lifestyles and living conditions…. read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    … further reading …

    68% Have Antibodies in This Clinic. Can a Neighborhood Beat a Next Wave? … Joseph Goldstein … The New York Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

  11. Trump and his posse are wearing face masks now and less you forget the U.S. military is finding it difficult to find new inductees due to non covid criteria, ponder that.

    Whilst were playing [tm] with numbers …

    My daughter lives in Texas. She texted me a twitter photo – no link, that said Florida and Texas were under reporting pneumonia counts. Quote – According to the CDC for Feb-May 30th, Texas had 1,420 deaths from
    #COVID and 5,344 from pneumonia. ****Historical average pneumonia deaths in Texas over the same period from 1999-2018 was ONLY 1168***

    How big are the under counts?
    Reply ↓

    Gary
    July 10, 2020 at 2:46 pm

    Texas: My 35 year old nephew had Covid in April, but seemed to recover. In early June he was carrying a basket of clothes in his apartment and collapsed and died. He is not counted as a Covid death. He did not smoke or smoke and was not over weight. He is an ex-marine. Borger is another large refinery in the pan handle and it is also in the middle of a huge meat packing area of the state. I wonder how they are fairing. I drove through that area in June and no one was wearing masks.

    I suggest you are careful in repeating numbers only when they suit your narrative, which you then extenuate even further without any facts. Its akin to H&H reminding anti AGW sorts back in the day about how that would play out WRT damaging credibility down the road. Too that I would note the seamless transition some have taken without batting an eye and still expect respect from others – pushing barges thingy.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Think how the numbers blow out when you realise a lot of the new Australians aren’t included in those figures. More like one in twenty then. UBI or we have trouble in the streets. Scummo waving a scarf at Endeavour Oval doesn’t stop that.

      Who the f#ck waves a scarf??

      • Someone who sharted and wants the fumes to dissipate before someone catches on who’s the source of the mercaptane emissions.

  12. Probably one of those comments that will create a lot of conflicting opinions but here goes anyway.

    I’ve been somewhat curious regarding treatments for COVID-19, it seems to have become highly politicised for whatever reason. I made a comment on yesterdays links in response to someone saying the Remdesivir has been green lighted for use in Australia. I would have posted this there but it was too late at night for anyone to see it.

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/07/weekend-reading-11-12-july-2020/#comment-3931481

    Over the last few months I have heard that Remdesivir is only somewhat helpful and has many potential side effects. I have also heard Dexamethasone is more helpful but only at late stage. And lastly, Hydroxychloroquine, despite being bashed by the media and many pundits, is significantly effective in early stage but not in late stage.

    Unfortunately, I haven’t been reading the actual research papers or clinical research done by practising doctors. So I can’t post any links without spending a tonne of time that I don’t have. But, what I can say is that I have been getting a lot of information from Chris Martenson on his YouTube channel Peak Prosperity. When papers are released on the topic he goes through them in detail and the trend has been a seemingly consistent avoiding of accurately gauging the effectiveness of Hydroxcholorquine through badly designed studies while the other treatment studies are generally underwhelming. MSM opinions/reports of all these drugs appear to have been made despite many instances of terrible research and outright fraud. Now Chris isn’t perfect, but he’s a lot better than the MSM.

    In regards to Hydroxychloroquine, there has been many false reports on its safety, A drug that has been approved for medical use in the USA since 1955 and is on the WHOs Model List of Essential Medicines (i.e. the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system). In it’s normal role the drug is used for prevention of Malaria and symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis and discoid or systemic lupus erythematosus. This alone, makes me doubt everything being said in the MSM and so called experts. Not to mention that in the early stages of the virus outbreak a lot of these same people were outright lying about masks being ineffective.

    So I guess what I’m asking here is what are others opinions? has anyone else been watching Chris Martenson’s reporting on YouTube since he started reporting on COVID? What treatments do people think are best?

    I personally believe there is a growing case for Hydroxychloroquine with Zinc and perhaps Azithromycin. However, along with Chris, I think the studies done so far are all somewhat flawed.

    Chris Martenson has been hoping for an accurate well designed study done on Hydroxychloroquine with Zinc and perhaps Azithromycin. We are yet to see that, possibly due to the amount of militant division everyone seems to garner for each other these days.

    If reading sites like MB has taught me anything, it is don’t believe the bullsh1t from our officials.

    I did just find this https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1 small sample size on that though. Also https://c19study.com/ haven’t gone through it but looks like many papers on the topic.

    • I think that if you have the luxury of treatment time there will be a lot of things that would relieve the worst symptoms you have, but every case seems to be a little different and working up a personal treatment plan would only be possible in relatively few cases. I am sure the newsworthy drugs that are mentioned help many in particular cases, but to recommend to the general population to take a course of doses for prevention is a big call.

      When the pressure comes on to treat many cases at once all that goes out the window and a generally useful preventative is sought and that is a whole new ball game which may take as much time as a vaccine.

    • I watched his videos religiously forthe first 6 weeks then dropped off. Now I’m back in lockdown I should go back and check them out and start watching a few more as they come out. I like his attitude, prepared to walk back on his previous opinions as more data becomes available.

      This channel is also good (by a Dr who has a side gig in communicating medical concepts)
      https://youtu.be/BG5pEDKbQv0

    • migtronixMEMBER

      HCQ is used as a prophylactic its not used as a therapeutic in its usual medicated usage. The whole bloody reason therapeutic usage is so conservative is because YOU ALREADY HAVE PROBLEMS!

      Primum non nocere, and all that…

      Don’t buy into the anti science bull just because science also fvcks up.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      HCQ is a long established drug with well established profile. No need to further test for side effects or safety.
      The only question is how well it works and dosage combinations with zinc and azrythromicin.

      Covid could be over around the world if it was easily tested for effectiveness ahead of wide rollout. E.g. I’m sure at least half the 3000 people trapped in those high rise towers in Melbourne in a dangerous environment with positive neighbours would be happy to take it as a preventive if offered for free. You’d know pretty quickly whether effective enough to invest in wider rollout and data can then develop over time. Must be plenty of opportunities around the world to quickly prove it up.

      Clear agendas in trying to bury it whilst profitable drugs are developed and marketed.

      It’s why a US President had to promote it to get around the vested interests preventing treatment.

      If I get Covid I’ll be taking it, at least demanding it not sure access to supply. I won’t be taking the rushed out experimental drugs or vaccines.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        You need to look back at what happen during SARS to understand why the medical community is resisting HCQ.

        After the story on SARS was blown open in China, the CCP went into damage control mode and orders their hospital to cure this disease anyway they can. So the hospitals tried everything : western drugs, Chinese medicine, hormonal treatment, steroid treatment etc. It is unknown whether they succeed in preventing death, but what IS known is that the treatment is often worse than SARS. The survivors would have been better off if they’re not treated at all.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09536-z

        Methylprednisolone is not a experimental drug, however the way they interact with SARS created unexpected results. Fatality of SARS is at worse around 10%, but severe debilitating effects however is present all of the patients treated. The ‘cure’ is worse than the disease. The medical community is being so careful with introduce new drugs to treat people for this reason: there is too much they don’t know about COVID-19.

        So if you take HCQ after you catch COVID-19, you are taking a major gamble with your health. I remember reading an interview with a SARS survivor : he suffered chronic fatigue for over a decade, and often wish he had died instead.

        COVID-19 cases blood clots in the lung and lower oxygen level in the blood, so ventilators is need to maintain the oxygen level in severe cases. Someone on the internet however has been spreading rumour that ventilators are causing people to die and shouldn’t be used, in order deflect criticism on Trump for not have enough ventilators. Medical treatment is being politicialized.

        • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

          I am not a doctor. So for health issues I have trust someone. That comes down to big pharma, captured regulators and their aligned media and industry articles with commercial interests at stake.
          Or the US President, who has no commercial interest and takes political risk to get the information out.

    • I think that improvements have been done by other measures
      use of steroids prevented many deaths by preventing cytokine storm
      placing people on stomach helped reduce number of people requiring ventilation that often leads to death …

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Here goes. You asked a serious question. This is not medical advice. It is an assessment with an out-of-date Biochemistry background. I can find the original papers but it’s an effort, so please need them seriously before you ask. HCQ has a antiviral capability. It is very effective against Human coronavirus (the normal cold that Dr X classifies SARS-Cov2 as) SARS (original flavour) is very resistant to HCQ. The specific index means the dosage required to treat infection is higher than the dosage humans can handle. SARS-cov-2 has a 4x better Specific index meaning that upper level dosages can have an effect. However, the SARS testing (chickens) suggested that it is ineffective if started more than 12 hours after infection. Poorly controlled human trials suggest that there’s slightly more time – but it needs to be in the system within two days of first symptoms to have any benefit. Both those findings suggest HCQ has no positive outcome on clinical outcomes if used for ‘rescue therapy’. If your oxygen stats are dropping it’s too late, and this seems to be true of everything we’ve tried. That’s what started the “HCQ is a failure” stories. For rescue therapy that story is true. If you look at the electron micrographs you can see why. The virus is everywhere in the body, and has already diverted so many resources into making copies that just staying alive is an achievement.

      So what’s the problem with HCQ if we know so much about it. The normal antimalarial dose back when it worked, was one tablet a week (200mg). The maximum dose for any use is normally 1-2 tablets a day. The poorly controlled trial I mentioned used two tablets the first day, and one the second day. The initial Chinese trials used 5000mg per day. That is dangerous in the extreme, and they had a fairly high drop out rate. So when people say we’ve used it for years, or that it’s ‘safe’, they gloss over the difference between 1 tablet a week, and two tablets a day, or even up to 25 tablets a day. The side effects include sudden death (HCQ elongates the QT phase of the heart beat, potentially causing fibrillation) which a rare part of the population will encounter at normal doses, but more of the normal population will encounter at elevated dosages (400mg pd). Another is permanent blindness (retinopathy) with the horrifying bit being that the long half life means that the patient stops the drug immediately they detect they are going blind, but nothing can stop them progressing to full irreversible blindness. But those are only the major side effects. HCQ also interacts with many drugs so elongate QT. Azithromycin being one, but many other common antibiotics too. And that is why the max dose is 400mg per day. Even then many patients drop out with other side effects. 200 mg per day seems to be adequate to provide a prophylactic benefit for low levels of virus exposure, but it is not 100% effective. a large bolus will overwhelm it. (that statement has observational data only).
      It works synergistically with Zinc, but keep zinc levels under control too, because Zn can be toxic. There is an Australian study that I believe is still underway into HCQ as a prophylactic but we don’t have the case numbers to ‘prove’ anything. Another drug that appears to have been unfairly disparaged is Kaletra.

      • thanks for the post P, I understand that just about all ‘drugs’ we take are poisons of one sort or another? Coming from a chemo survivor…

    • Remdesivir
      Made by Gilead
      There is a lot of money at stake with this, and $ can influence the science.
      Initially developed for Hep C & failed, and then tried for Ebola and failed there also.
      May be a case of 3rd time lucky.
      Current “best evidence” is that Remdesivir does not reduce deaths, but may get you better a bit faster. On this basis, it has has been approved in several countries.

      Chloroquine and hydroxyC
      Have been around for years and are safe at usual doses
      May have some benefit in COVID, but this is not clear
      The below infamous (& now retracted) Lancet paper claimed found survival was WORSE in patients receiving chloro or hydroxychloro. Paper retracted as authors conceded they did not actually have access to the data (always a problem when trying to conclude what the data shows). The authors of this paper were employed at a hospital which appeared to received financial support from Gilead.
      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
      An interesting paper which looked at amount of money a doctor received from Gilead, and how opposed that doctor was to chloro as a treatment.
      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300627?via%3Dihub

      Bottom line.
      We need better data on these drugs. May be helpful, but evidence is lacking.
      Evidence is stronger for a conspiracy against choro – if you only have a modestly effective drug, the best strategy may be to discredit another possibly modestly effective drug.

      Steroids (inhaled, methylpred, dexamethasone)
      Appear to be modestly helpful
      The best data so far is from a (very complicated multi-arm) UK study which showed that overall the dexamethasone group did a bit better than the non-dexamethasone group But this study was only in hospitalised patients – so it doesn’t tell us anything about the majority of patients that are not hospitalised.
      Steroids were bad in SARS 20 years ago, but the problem then may have been excessively high doses (especially in Hong Kong)
      A recent Aust / UK trial is looking looking at inhaled steroids (e.g. pulmicort)

      Colchicine
      Anti-inflammatory, used for gout mainly.
      Super toxic at excessive doses.
      A few researchers are suggesting is helpful at correcting the underlying inflammation in COVID
      Further studies needed.

      Zinc
      May be helpful, although probably only slight benefit. But zinc deficiency is common, and normal levels of supplementation likely to be safe,

      Vitamin D
      Low vitamin D levels are associated with worse outcomes – but association is different to causality
      Vit D levels fall in winter, and are low if not exposed to sunlight (= nursing home residents).
      May be one reason why mortality higher in winter, and why nursing home residents do badly. However nursing home residents are an unhealthy lot, and naive to expect this can all be countered by Vit D
      Seems reasonable to check Vic D levels if at risk of being low, and supplement if necessary.

  13. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/10/scott-morrison-says-australia-will-halve-international-arrivals-during-coronavirus-crisis

    Australia will reduce the rate of international arrivals by more than half – with at least 4,000 fewer Australians returning home each week – and states will charge people for compulsory two-week hotel quarantine, Scott Morrison has announced.

    It appears that since March over 8000 “Special exemption” arrivals were returning to Australia each week. Does anyone really believe that these numbers solely consisted of Australians returning from overseas as opposed to the usual influx of international students/migrant workers?

    Would’ve thought most Australians wanting to be back would have returned by now, so will be wouldn’t be surprised if the immigration ponzi has been happening regardless. Will MB call for Morrison to resign?

    • Yes, it would be interesting to see a breakdown of who these returnees were (and their infection rates). No wonder the quarantine processes were stretched.

    • For some reason my sister doesn’t want to come back to Australia. She’s left Botswana and headed to the UK (Irish passport) and then gone to Dusseldorf, but no idea why. But she may eventually come back here. So I can imagine there are expats wanting to return but can’t leave certain countries easily. Took her a month to get out of Botswana and now there is fuel shortages over there.

      • from an epidemic perspective Ireland is one of the safest places now
        majority of people there probably already had been infected so second wave in Ireland is very unlikely

  14. Reported in New Zealand … the sooner we have this in NZ the better …

    Returning travellers to be charged for New South Wales hotel quarantine … Kate Aubusson and Andrew Taylor … Sydney Morning Herald / Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/122107688/returning-travellers-to-be-charged-for-new-south-wales-hotel-quarantine

    International travellers flying into New South Wales will pay A$3000 (NZ$3168) for their two-week stint in hotel quarantine from midnight on Saturday, no matter where they ordinarily reside in Australia.

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the decision to charge all returning travellers, including Australian citizens, came after the national cabinet announced caps on the number of people arriving in Australia on Friday.

    “Australian residents have been given plenty of time to return home, and we feel it is only fair that they cover some of the costs of their hotel accommodation,” Berejiklian said. … read more via hyperlink above …

  15. migtronixMEMBER

    Reasons I find Catholism disgusting:

    They abhor Eve, the mother of humanity, for corrupting Adam – who would otherwise still be Adam and none of us.

    They worship Mary for getting raped by the spirit and watching her son get executed.

    But culture matters Im told…

        • Point is mythology is problematic, per se in my youth in the mid west during the 70s Judaism was seen in a very negative light for being complicit in the execution. Then magically that changed for the most part and then reverted in some circles again.

          Pretty much why I stick to anthro, slaves [tm] were payed in Egypt, but hay, why mess up a good story – narrative.

    • Well duh. How else are you going to impose subservience of women without giving them the role models that exemplify the behaviour you want to cultivate?

    • I’m not sure how you can single out Catholicism when things you listed were universal for all Christians and parts to yews as well

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Incorrect. Only the Catholics worship Mary. It borders on Idolitory which was the charge of the iconoclastic reformation – better known for protesting and tearing down stuff! Gasp!

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Speaking as a Catholic, I’d agree that Catholics do elevate Mary in respect of other Christian religions, however it has always been her maternal leadership in the family that has been emphasized. Catholicism is heavily focused on the family, and the point of Mary was mainly to elevate the voice of the woman within the family, our mother’s should be adored as Jesus adored his mother. From my investigations of Protestantism the focus is more on the teachings of Jesus and finding Christ through meaning of work, being industrious, and participating civic life, which extends across to ones family.

        They abhor Eve, the mother of humanity, for corrupting Adam – who would otherwise still be Adam and none of us.

        There are no special passages in the Catholic bible on the story of creation that are not to be found in any other Christian bibles. They are all taken from the first 24 books of the J3wish bible, which was itself mainly filled with Bablyonian and Assyrian mythology and the story of creation.

        That is about as nefarious as it gets. As to their belief in the immaculate conceptions, though plainly ridiculous, that is obviously a matter of faith for the individual.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Speaking as an unwilling Catholic I’d say you guys are cool with water boarding and indoctrination! Gasp! I

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Jesus – “mother’s”.

          Say five hail Marys and go to your room without dinner.
          No potatoes for you (sorry if that’s rac1st).

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Lol

            There are some in the teaching profession
            Who have made this small mark an obsession.
            The apostrophe’s used,
            And is sometimes abused,
            For contractions as well as possession.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          There once was a random apostrophe
          Whose position no one could explain to me
          It didn’t just stick out
          It shat, cried and shout
          Look: here am I, unnecessarily.

  16. Barring a few years of WW2, Australia has always occupied a mostly peaceful corner of the world. The ADF has generally been deployed fighting wars abroad rather than defending the homeland. And generations have grown up believing our ultimate guarantor was the US and ANZUS (yes I know the limitations to ANZUS, but my point is most Australians believed US would always come to our rescue).

    This is all changing as we find ourselves in interesting times.

    Chyna is becoming increasingly assertive – it feels as though Chyna has decided it doesn’t have to pretend anymore and that it doesn’t matter so much what everyone else thinks.

    There are a number of counter-measures that we seem to be taking
    1. Increased regional cooperation with Indonesia, India, Japan, and other SE Asian countries
    2. Increasing “soft-power” in the South Pacific and PNG, and trying to offset similar Chynese initiatives in this area
    3. Buying rapidly available advanced weapons. Not planes or submarines that take decades to arrive, but longer range anti-ship missiles that are available right now
    4. Encouraging a greater US presence in Northern Australia.
    5. Efforts to influence Chynese diaspora living here – note the Decode article (5th link in todays section) which refers to a western influenced Chynese language media presence in Australia
    6. Trying to deny Chynese initiatives e.g. Huawei

    After this, the choices seem to get harder.

    One option Australia needs to consider is a nuclear deterrent. With the exception of Israel, nuclear powers have not been attacked – an attacks against Israel have been small scale

    The other option has already been mentioned above. If you are a small business fearing a hostile take-over by much larger business, an option is to merge with a more friendly large business. So a friendly merge rather than hostile take over. If things got increasingly difficult, then we might need to explore the option of some form of merge with he USA. While many would lament that, most would regard it as better than the alternative. Like cancer surgery, sometimes you need to give up a lot in order to avoid giving up a lot more.

    This move would ensure our protection far more so than the ANZUS treaty.

    Would the US be interested? I think so.
    1. This would really contain Chyna both west and south
    2. This would shore up the Pacific ocean and make it far more difficult for Chyna to operate deep into the Pacific
    3. Mineral deposits in Australia – uranium, rare earths, other metals
    4. Antartica I guess – where Aust has a very disproportionate (and likely not sustainable) claim

    Ian Chappell once said that as captain, it was sometimes difficult to know what to do – Do you bat first? Do you enforce the follow-on? He said that in that situation, he often found it helpful to think about what your opposition least wanted – and then do that.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Even if all of that was true, China has much bigger fish before they ever down here.

      Why paint ourselves into a corner like the fat shark idiot is doing?

      • “First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.”

        We may not be the first in line, but we most definitely ARE in the line.

      • The fat idiot Koala has already painted itself into a corner. This has been a few decades in the making.

    • Reus's largeMEMBER

      Yeah all 5 suburbs out of how many thousand around Australia, things must be really bad for the spruik to be like this!

  17. migtronixMEMBER

    Just a working class girl
    Hoping Ermo and his mates
    don’t harass
    She’ll take the twitter feed
    And shove up his arse
    Just city boy
    Born and raised
    By bogan c&#ts
    He took the midnight fight
    On for everyone!

    JUST STOP
    BELIEVE HER

    • P0pulation Modulator

      Yes I must confess if you are a fedder you are in heaven lol and I don’t mean tube steak think donuts and the kentucky

  18. Holder is my favorite captain since Fleming. He leads from the front and knows how to use his bowlers. May the Windies rise again.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      His own bowling in the first innings and his attempt to get the wood on new captain Stokes was outstanding.

      Genuinely hoping his batsmen can get them over the line.

      • Should be a great finish today. It’s always satisfying to wake up news of a late England collapse.

    • call me ArtieMEMBER

      Hi Harry. I once had the renovating neighbor from he11, too. Also I rented and it was a bit of a sh!tbox house.

      I used to sleep better when I thought that Mr mad-renovator would finish his 5 year project and move in with family just in time for me to cut and move out. The lordyland of my place would sell it. The new buyers would knock it down and spend the next 3 noisy, dusty years building an apartment block monstrosity to block out all his light.

      One can only hope

    • could explode but not very likely
      there has been cases like this in last few months in Sydney and they didn’t explode – maybe conditions are now right in Sydney as they seem to be in Melbourne

  19. Anyone looking to do a bit of cricket trolling may like to go to a forum and point out that Clarke was better than Tendulkar. And Waugh. And, over his career, Ponting. In Ponting’s defense he did hang around to assist Clarke. And his peak seasons would have him third to Smith and Bradman on an Australian greats list. Not to mention that he’s probably the best fielder that Australia has ever produced. Australia led by Warne after Waugh’s retirement would have been a sublime unit.
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/29444087/top-batsmen-batting-position

    • Mate, are you intending to out-troll the Indian trolls?
      Those were all good batsman though, as much as I despise Pup.

      • It can’t be done. They’re fanatical about the little master. All that can be done is throw in some things to show that Tendulkar was great, but not the greatest, and then step back.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Yes. And you could add that his run rate always slowed down a bit after he got past 150.

          • That reminds me of another thing to throw at them. Jason ‘Dizzy’ Gillespie had a better conversion rate of going to 200 once he passed 100.

          • @footsie I love Dizzy. He had a period of about 12 months where he didn’t get the wickets he deserved because the batsmen couldn’t get anywhere near him.

        • There are several articles I’ve seen over the years which “shows” that Tendulkar is better than Bradman.

    • Pup does look out of place in that top 7 but if you watched him in 2012 in particular it was a glimpse into what it would have been like watching Bradman. You just expected him to score runs every time he came out to bat.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      And besides the 50% devaluation in 08, the rampant unemployment in 2020, the miserable housing boom of the 2010s, the endless corruption, child trafficking, drugs and general profit from LNP donor sanctioned rapine, what have they done to us lately?

    • Wouldn’t be surprised if they offer IO loans for a year or so as a middle ground.

    • So heres where I smell a rat. Banks love nothing more than people becoming bigger and bigger debt serfs.
      Why not now?

      • Becoming bigger debt serfs is not a problem and even encouraged when house prices are rising.
        Offloading the risky part of the book makes a lot of sense if they see the writing on the wall and they think that house prices are going to drop.

  20. Peachy Bagholder

    anyone who’s wedded to ‘growth’ – hasn’t realised there will be no more. people or growth. get it through your thick skulls. We need to look forward into reduction. If you are wedded to growth, you no longer understand reality or Australia. Everything is Different now.

    • nothing is different yet
      to become different many people will need to die – to change the system unfortunately many people have to die
      WWII, WWI, Mid 19th century revolutions, French revolution and Napoleonic wars, War of spanish succession, …
      do we want that?
      I’m not conservative but changing doesn’t seem to improve things for a long period, doesn’t make things worse long term either

    • +1
      The failure of hotel quarantine in Vic has ended the fantasy that immigration/foreign students could come back at BAU levels anytime soon. Big Australia is going to take a long nap and the implications will be profound.

  21. migtronixMEMBER

    I hate everyone.
    I hate boomers
    I hate bogans
    I hate the “working” class
    Hate the middle class
    Despise the upper class
    Hate the heros
    Hate the villans
    Hate the poets
    And the realists.

    Hate you too
    But most of all
    I hate me.

  22. migtronixMEMBER

    Regarding religion, as Jesus said, when I became a man I put childish things behind.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      And as we have increasingly understood science and all its disciplines, we should have put superstitious explanations for the previously unexplainable behind us… but here we are.

  23. UPDATE …

    How sensible are the blunt bureaucratic policy prescriptions for covid – 19 … for what should be essential targeted management ? …

    While the elderly are the most vulnerable … young people’s earnings / employment and lifestyle opportunities are being unnecessarily trashed …

    … Why ? …

    Coronavirus: The Under-40s Dilemma … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coronavirus-under-40s-dilemma

    Last week, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid made a striking observation, one which threw all coronavirus comparisons to the Spanish Flu, and the coming second wave of the pandemic, in for a loop. … read more via hyperlink above …

    … Why are the ‘non – elderly’ banned from cruising with upgraded safeguards ? …

    Fears for 40,000 cruise jobs as ‘furious’ industry slams advice telling ALL tourists to avoid holidays at sea while minister suggests trips won’t be back until October … UK Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509381/Cruise-ship-industry-blasts-vague-Foreign-Office-advice-telling-tourists-not-cruises.html

  24. migtronixMEMBER

    Party is over

    “57 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 16 in intensive care”

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Who could have known, eh?

      Queensland is going to be doing this in 1-2 months.

        • In Cairns, seen the unmasked plain loads… Not going out the gate, except to exercise or dogs. Pub, no. Friends, no. Essentials only. Not going to wait, it’s inevitable now they opened before Vic was ready. I’d lie to get out of there. As the guys who were caught and faced 8×4000 – ‘it’s only money’ or shite like that. Put’s us back another 6 months and you try and trace all those tourists once infections break out.

  25. migtronixMEMBER

    You were working as scab
    at cocktail bar when covid
    & Dutton fvcked you
    Its Straya so don’t expect
    Much past locanto

  26. “Premier Daniel Andrews said 57 people were in Victorian hospitals with coronavirus on Sunday, including 16 in intensive care, and Victoria had 1484 active cases.“

    This snapshot gives a clearer picture of the disease.
    So about 3% in hospital – some of whom would have been admitted for social rather than clinical reasons.
    And about 1% in ICU

    This fits with multiple studies showing a fatality rate way under 1% – maybe around 0.5%.

      • Not quite sure I follow your post.

        A 0.5% fatality rate is way better than the 5-10% feared in the early days of North Italy and NYC.

        As such, the government response may be different this time around. Perhaps the best approach is a modified Swedish approach with shielding the elderly and otherwise vulnerable, and then allowing the rest of society to continue with some mitigation.

        From the front line, I can assure you society is paying a very high price for widespread lockdowns.
        Domestic violence up.
        Child abuse up.
        Mental health crises up.

        Sometimes, there are only poor choices on offer. The responsibility of our leaders is to advocate for the least poor.

        The current debate seems to have it that advocates of less restrictive measures are somehow responsible for COVID deaths, while advocates of lockdowns for weeks at a time have no responsibility for the harm this causes. You can’t have it both ways.

        • matthewMEMBER

          Not to sure which Steve I’m talking to but your arguments are getting more shaky with time.Pity

          • I wasn’t taking about suicide. You said DV and child abuse has increased. Please show us some stats?

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Most of the harm lockdown causes could be ameliorated.

          Kinda hard to do that to dead.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          The border should have been shut in February. And still be shut!

          I want b00mers to die as much as the next rational person, but it’s killing others and thats not cool.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            No need to shut the border.
            Everyone can still go the footy. I’ll prove it.
            Kidies don’t need to worry.
            Masks won’t be of much extra benefit and may be detrimental.
            Eradication isn’t the goal/practicable.
            No need to shut the schools.
            Perfectly ok letting thousands and thousands of overseas uni students in.
            Open the state borders, she’ll be right mate! Not doing so is economically irresponsible.
            Everyone can still go the footy. I’ll prove it.

            And right on cue…

            And people wonder why other people don’t listen to ‘science’. They absolutely should. But sometimes it’s not entirely their fault when they don’t. Not entirely.

  27. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Does anyone know if you can catch the China virus from farts? Either I’ve been really unlucky or there’s a lot of stinking crop dusting going on lately that I’ve walked though especially getting my morning latte.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Didn’t SARS spread through an apartment block due to enthusiastic bean eating?

    • CanuckDownUnder

      Shouldn’t we just let it, ahem, rip? It mostly kills dudes anyways which means less competition for hot chicks!

    • Dr Norman Swan covered this a month or so ago. A true professional, he managed to keep a straight face through the report. I think the answer was yes, probably, you can, but likely low risk. And something about undies working like a mask.

  28. Mining BoganMEMBER

    West Indies need 200 to win the first test. This is going to be interesting.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Well, there’s my theory that the littlies couldn’t catch the climate change either shot to he11.