Sunday Supplement: 26 July 2020

‘Sunday Evening’ Russell Drysdale, 1951, Art Gallery of NSW

 

Macro & Markets

 

Asia

 

Americas

 

Europe

 

Terra Specufestorus

 

…and furthermore…

 

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

    • https://www.abc.net.au/radio/newsradio/property-faces-30-declines/12488234

      Louis Christopher 30% falls (GS posted this link)

      I can’t be bothered posting the video but Robert Schiller talks about it but it’s pretty obvious

      People payed a huge premium to be very central to city cafes restaurants theatre districts in the big cities, these places now aren’t central they are now the outer suburbs, apartments in NY Vancouver Syd etc $1M for a small space will now never find a buyers

      You are going to see property falls of 60 to 80% in some parts our big cities here in AUST

      30% is the tip of the iceberg, think Louis knows it but can’t say it yet

      And anyone who thinks unemployment will be 9% is leaving in fairy land

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Thanks for the credit Bnich, thought it was missed amongst the banter of various topics that get thrown around on the Saturday links comments.
        This is a big deal from LC, because he is a realist but I would also say has a bull skew based on gov policy bias. 30% could easily be 50%+ and people should be very worried when he and Martin North start talking silmilar themes.
        2020 is seriously starting to look like a very negative (almost cosmic) range of events from various angles.

        • V long way to go
          AUSTRALIA $2 Trillion HH debt is starting its great deleveraging
          I think some of the smart ones in main stream are now seeing it

          GS governments can’t do anything this time, that’ll become very clear in the next 6 months

          CB are finished too

          • They can’t do much – but they’ll try.

            And it’ll involve this: printer go brrrr …

            Plan accordingly

          • Dom
            You wait until everyone realises that printing money doesn’t work anymore which is next 6 months
            You are really going to see fireworks
            That’s the meltdown

            That’s when interest rates start rising.

            Interest rates will start rising over the next 6 to 9 months

            Still think we will see a repeat of 1980s levels, 15 to 20%

        • billygoatMEMBER

          Handy to pin the Covid & property eco crash onto the ‘cosmos’
          FFS engineered decline. Folk self muzzled & terrified they’ll catch imaginary pix from folks closest to themselves. It’s not like there’s anything on Stan $ hitt flux, Pox tell, School required reading in last 5 decades, or any con $ Piracy movies to preempt current theatre. Thanks dog I’m not a fellow and not beholden to conply with farce.
          If however it is spirit cosmos forces then so more it be. People will just die so must be gods will. Everyone in same boat so no great loss. Dis ease does not discriminate. Meanwhile Alfred hospital empty and they’re still ‘preppin for big casualty number. Hi Ho Ho Happy New year 202

      • Two people posted (unverifiable!) anecdotes on Sat links about banks doing lower valuations – meaning buyers did not get enough finance for property purchases. Apparently not off-the-plan stuff either.

        That’s some bear pr0n.

        I missed out on a house a few months back because the seller wanted a cash buyer (ie no finance) – they were worried finance could fall over and kill their sale. I wish I had tried to find out where this seller worked, ie if they had inside info or were just paranoid.

        • A few things
          Valuers probably are doing lower vals because like Louis and Martin they actually know prices are lower and not believing all the C Joye propaganda
          Think valuation wouldn’t be anything untoward
          Cash buyer
          Anyone who really had a clue probably want a cash buyer since RC

          A2 you’ll see a lot more of above and even many other things that we’ve never seen as prices are now in a decade long bear market

          In Perth they have s thing in a contract that a buyer only needs to settle on provision that the buyers home is sold, if not they don’t need to settle someone from Perth might want to explain

          You are going to see many more of these things in a property crash

          People are starting to become aware of what lies ahead

          I don’t get as much abuse and told I’m mental anymore

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            bcn,
            1/ valuers differ the valuation depending on who the payer is.
            2/ Buyers in Perth have a clause called subject to finance which can get them off the hook,
            as well as subject to sale of home.

          • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

            Perth market is done by private treaty for all but the minority of properties. The normal contract has two standard clauses subject to sale and/or subject to finance approval. You have the option to strike these out if you are a cash buyer or are pre-approved for finance which makes it a lot more certain for the seller. When I was selling properties <2014 I definitely sought buyers who were not subject to sale and were either a cash buyer or had finance pre-approval.

        • Bitter Looser Renter

          I was one of them. I can only contribute what I hear. There is no way to verify or unverify any anecdotes, but I have no need to spread falsely negative propaganda in a forum like this since COVID is doing all the work anyway. Why waste the effort, honestly?

          I would be more suspicious of someone claiming they made a profit on an OTP flip or something.

          Anyhoo …..

          There will IMHO soon be significant vendor tolerance of spreads for cash vs subject to finance offers on RE going forward. Anyone thinking of buying who is confident enough with their finances would be insane not to put in separate cash and subject to finance offers and ignore any protests by the (spiv) RE agent that ‘that is not how it is done’.

          In the past as the market was rocketing up and Uber drivers earning $46,000 p.a. in highly casual work were being approved by third tier shonks for 105% of valuation to buy $850,000 dogboxes in Penrith, the difference between cash and subject to finance meant nothing. All that has changed now – ignore at your peril.

          AND

          For anyone trying to sell now, just be aware that if you accept a cash offer and purchaser cannot settle, you are entitled to keep the deposit BUT the RE agent gets full commission, under most standard agent appointment terms. Moreover if you agree to let the purchaser back out and have their deposit back, because sympathy (or intimidation? – they have been to your house, right? ), the RE agent can bill you for the commission. Read the fine print on your agent appointments very carefully.

          • You don’t just get the deposit in the event of non completion. It sits in trust and you have sue for it if the purchaser doesn’t agree to release it

          • Thanks BLR, yes you were one.

            My comment “unverified” just meant I was passing on the anecdotes with no ability to verify them. Didn’t mean to imply they weren’t accurate.

        • When we sold our place I had a valuer come and do a val for CGT purposes (house over 2ha so triggers CGT). He’s val’d our place a few times and always up for a yarn. Anyway, told me that he (he’s with HTW) and other valuers had a negative view looking forward – things not looking good. Said real estate agents and vendors were clueless

          This is northern rivers, val in June

      • It wasn’t too long ago that the bulls were talking down potential falls to be in the 5-10% range, so to hear someone LC come out with 30% type drops is quite significant as they’re normally only talking about best case scenarios. They’re now starting to approach Steve Keen/Martin North territory, so the actual falls should be much worse.

        • L

          Steve K said 40% falls from 30% lower there about

          Steve said.prices will fall 40% back in 08/09 so a $1M home would fall to $600k
          But the home went to $1.5 in the juiced bubble
          The $1.5M price will get to $600k like Steve said but it’s 60% falls (actually lower)

          “Sixty is now the new Forty” as they say

          L, LC will be saying 2x 30% in 6 months and that’s your base case

          Steve Keen similar to Jim Chanos will be correct they just got the timing wrong

          I love Elon Musk he is amazing what he’s done but tesla worth $350 Billion, Gav do you even. like Tesla? I think they are terrible looking cars. BMW and others will come out with better EV , $1800 per share is ridiculous, there is a point that it’s time to fall

          Actually as this global debt bubble bursts this half H2, most assets are going to collapse in price

          Harry Dent will be right too, he was too early also

          Harry Dent has a book “sale of a life time” that I’m sure some on here have heard of

          You are about to see the greatest sale this FY any of us have ever been too.

          Be patient and don’t buy too early ……

          The old saying 30% isn’t really much of a discount if you can get 70% off

          You know you buy in a sale 20% off then 3 weeks later it’s another 20+ % off, it’s really annoying

          Harry actually says in the Great Depression you could buy for up to 90/95% cheaper than 1920s prices for some things

          You may even pick up a place to live for free, someone will want to give it away to get rid of their body Corp land tax rates liabilities when they have no tenant but don’t even take for free, make them pay you maybe 1 years of their liability

          You wait some of you younger guys on here will get a home more so an apartment for free, maybe 4 or 5 years away maybe earlier. LC and Eliza pencil that one in.

          • Reusa
            I love you bro but you’ve been caught with your pants down
            Never said free Reusa, I said the owner would have to pay a few to the buyer for the buyer to take the property
            The seller may need to throw in a car or something of a value as a kicker

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            If prices drop as much as you’re projecting (it’s possible) there would be a cascade of 2nd and 3rd order effects that would destroy deposits, shares and any racket that has been held a float with debt.

            That would limit the number of potential buyers, just like the 1930s.

          • @ Arthur
            The whole global financial and banking system is going to collapse
            The Q is where do you hide ?????

          • Steve said prices will fall 40% back in 08/09 so a $1M home would fall to $600k. But the home went to $1.5 in the juiced bubble. The $1.5M price will get to $600k like Steve said but it’s 60% falls (actually lower)

            Wages have risen 40% over that same period. That would put a floor at around $840k using Steve Keen’s price-to-income calculations.

          • @.freddy
            Forget about price to income
            1/3 of the country won’t have a job
            Is that a PE ratio
            Wouldn’t even bother look at that in this scenario

          • It would be ridiculous to expect house prices to drop close to 100% to 1970s prices went wages were $100/wk. Wage inflation needs to be taken into account.

          • @ Freddy
            Deflation first
            Wages aren’t going up they are going down, a long way down
            When inflation comes it’ll be price increases of essential food medicine etc all the things people are jumping over each other at the supermarket
            Wages (income) is now in major decline
            Zero marginal cost society “J Rivken advisor time google and others
            We are headed into a major deflation in asset prices
            House prices are mostly driven by availability of credit and banks reduce lending as prices crash
            It’ll be very hard to obtain finance in the future

          • “going to see property falls of 60 to 80% in some parts our big cities here in AUST”
            “You may even pick up a place to live for free, someone will want to give it away”

            Your bearish calls have always been up there with the biggest bears on here since 2012. You’ve lost the plot and now you’re just being outlandish. Property isn’t going to fall 80% or be given away for free and hopefully nobody here takes you serious.

          • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

            I can see the “free” like apartments. Any asset that has debt attached that can’t be repaid is a liability to the owner and a negative value. If interest rates go up and establish a perceived long term up trend, there will be apartments with little land value, few or low rent tenants, sliding long term capital prices and hence a liability where it would be rational to pay someone to take it off your hands.

            I’ve tried to warn my brother of interest rate risk, although struggle to even start the conversation ‘re property prices. He owns his home and bought two investment apartments otp, one in super fund. Got lucky in just managing to secure finance to settle last year I think before banks stopped lending to super funds. But he’s always been lucky in property without any effort, so no sweat, you just buy and hold and it all works out.

            I said what if he can’t find tenants to cover what I suspect is at least $600-800k in debt (guess) maybe more. He says I’m being ridiculous, he has just resigned his tenants for $1,000 /week, thinks this is perfectly normal good value, like there are thousands of people wanting to pay this.

            But his real exposure I believe is interest rates, he hasn’t contemplated rising rates and that where many will get caught. Large debt, house price falls, tenants no longer willing to pay high rents can all happen over time and then interest rates start squeezing the life out of people like my brother.

            Each time I try to talk at family gatherings to warn him typically my father shuts me down and expresses his disappointment that I’m not buying property with my savings, our family discussions on this always end with their shame and disappointment that I won’t go out and buy a property. Like I’m a conspiracy theorist thinking what I do about property. Then we all just change the subject.

          • @Gladys
            You obviously don’t have much experience in life.
            Can you imagine owning a unit in a tower that you could not find a tenant. Which will be many around Melb
            So you own the apartment with no tenant for 2/3 years (which will be commonplace)
            So each year you get
            Body Corp fees, let’s say $7k on a 2 bedder in a new building
            Rates $1500
            Interest let’s be conservative and say 3% on a $400k loan being $12k interest
            So outgoing
            Land tax (being introduced) for OO and it’s coming
            Maybe you have a loan to the bank and interest rates rise, so if here you think interest rates will stay at 2.5% for 30 years you know nothing about the functioning of financial markets

            So from above you have a solid $25k going out per year
            plus the added pressure when loan turns p &i

            Say you lose your job or you are retired with no income, I’d like to ask what you would do
            Until you have been in that experience you don’t know, to write that comment you clearly lack real life experience and also lack insight

            You can add many examples similar with commercial RE

            If you are happy to hold that liability you are a fool and their won’t be anyone more foolish than you to buy it off you

            There will be many units in Melb that will be negative value
            You’ll never find a buyer

            Stay liquid good equities cash gold silver and maybe a very good 60s large Art Deco unit in a small block in the best location

            Those pieces of crap dog boxes in city Melb & Syd are worth ZERO A

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            It would be ridiculous to expect house prices to drop close to 100% to 1970s prices went wages were $100/wk. Wage inflation needs to be taken into account.

            From memory, even in most of Melbourne, housing was still ca. 3x income into the 80s. Less in other capitals and much less in the regions.

            Sydney has always been an exception.

            What do house prices look like in Melbourne, Brisbane, regional areas, etc, at 3x median (individual) income ? Here in Brisbane that would be a drop from ca. $500k to ca. $200k – 60%.

          • bcn nice assumption there based on a short couple of sentences I have little life experience? Laughable. What actual qualifications do you have to backup your outlandish claims? The way you talk on here reminds me of a horoscope reader crossed with a snake oil salesman. You just put these statements out with such conviction and authority like they are fact.
            Shame there isn’t a remind me function here like reddit so we could come back to this in 1-2 years time to see just how ridiculous your claim was.

          • lol Wilbur just since 2012. MB is a housing bear echo chamber. Claiming the housing bubble is going to pop… in 6 months time! Every 6 months for 8 years lol. Here we are still waiting on any real crash to happen and now we have a guy saying that apartments are going to be free because sunspots!

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            …and since 2012 MB has pointed out the state of the Australian economy as profoundly uncompetitive and representing the worlds most expensive, land, energy and people. Since 2012 MB, almost alone, has pointed to the underlying role of house prices in juicing the Australian aggregate demand – and the debt and the money laundering and the deforming of the super system which has occurred to specifically juice house prices – and noted time after time after time that Australian houses are about the worlds most ludicrously expensive and that we are selling entire generations down the drain for the benefit of mainly babyboomer housing speculators who have deformed the body politic and the media and virtually every facet of policy relating in any way to the political economy.

            And time after time they have pointed to the end game of a major reset followed by a long painful grind out of Australia’s woeful competitive position, the way in which our natural resources have been utterly wasted with tax concessions and cuts when they might have been deployed for productive purposes.

            Well the reset is now here, and there are people like Louis Christopher floating 30% falls and a real estate government, with a genuine real estate marketing man, in the seat looking for all the world like a deer in the spotlight…..

            The issues MB have been referring to for a decade are now coming home to roost. Speaking as a house owner I sort of hope the property lobby and the housing speculator end of society wears an utter housing implosion from here. But even if it doesnt in the coming months, unless Australia addresses the issues MB have been raising over all that time, Australia is toast until it finds an angle on competitiveness, and I dont think the population ponzi will be opened up soon enough to smooth that over.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            The ultimate plan is for shaman bcn to sacrifice Gav’s title deed on an altar paid for via MB fund service charges built in Newcastle and mirroring Stonehenge to bring on the coming apocalypse. Without them we have no hope for the future.

          • Bitter Looser Renter

            The small point is the debt attached to the land via the mortgage. There will be many owners pretty soon who will be happy to walk away from their investments for reasons mentioned above, but if they transfer a dogbox to you for zero, but it has a mortgage of $650,000 on it, guess who now has to pay?

            There have been for years many, many business owners offering disastrous franchises for free, just so they can get out of the ongoing liabilities but these are worth less than zero.

            So, there won’t be any free lunches here.

            Not to say there won’t be occasional bargains at the mortgagee sales however …

          • There’s a place in Darlinghurst. Sold for $2.2M a couple of years ago – listed for $1.7M That was a few weeks ago and haven’t had an update.

        • * many landlords will be desperate for someone to just take their property of them. More the investor types that are trapped. Just relax you’ll get a place for free, you won’t even need iti go to the bank if there is even a bank at that time. Banks as we know them now are on their way out too. I’d say it’ll be more private lending peer to peer

          No fck it, make them give you their car to take their property off them, you’ll get a car too

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Allan Dixon ( an Aussie) was one of them buying in NY USA,
            Brownstone comes to mind.
            US =,USA.

          • Ok that institutional buying to rent last time, that won’t work this time around
            QE doesn’t work
            There is a much different structural change in demographics that Harry talks about baby boomers retirement or more dyers than buyers
            There is also this illness that’s closed the world and is pushing people from the main cities out to more regional areas, what attracted people to the big cities is now finished
            This is also due to the advancement of technology via internet work from home etc and buying on line & collapse of commercial
            Rents are collapsing
            City builders will move to regional for work
            I’m sure you could add more into the list
            This is a collapse of property prices in the major metro areas of capital cities
            Major capital cities population will fall dramatically over next few years

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            bcn,
            Major capital cities population will fall making them more desirable places to live. One of the reasons people populated the cities was good soil which they promptly cemented over. A lot of cities are attractive places to live without excess people.

          • @boom
            Yes definitely the big cities couldn’t have got much worse and yes they will be definitely better than what they were
            I’m pretty sure that this COVID will mutate or swine flu etc over next several years, this has a long time to play out
            For me I’m heading to SE QLD near the beach
            I think with what’s coming you have to move to a much more relaxed place

    • Dom Q
      I’m just actually thinking what does QE do, what’s it meant to achieve
      Just push up asset prices to encourage people to go into more debt %??
      It certainly doesn’t fix the underlying problem
      What does it do??

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        If you controlled a large business or other capital and you were moving in the circles of power, what would you do? Take a long-term or short-term view? What about if you had to publicly report your financials every three or six months?

      • QE puts the squeeze on rates: lower interest rates = greater demand for credit (in theory) and lower debt service costs for those who can refinance or have floating rate liabilities. Lower rates means that investors chase higher yields in higher risk securities, which is a key objective of QE — it means the corporate sector remains funded (both debt and equity).

        There’s a lot of theoretical benefits to QE, but while well-intentioned those benefits don’t transpire the way policymakers would like them to (theory is great but reality is what matters). There are several negative side effects, which are largely ignored: QE blows bubbles in risk assets and increases wealthy inequality in the process.

      • QE directly increases M2

        The BoE have said this explicitly

        They have also explicitly said it aims to increase asset prices

        Trickle down economics for the 21st century

  1. Nils Pratley of The Guardian has stumbled upon a genius idea — tax capital gains on Primary residences. I’m sure that’ll grease the transactional wheels of the property market! Well done Nils – another way to raise taxes to pay for the increasingly bloated bureaucracy that sits like Jabba the Hut atop the private sector.

    Our problems are at an end – just wish I’d thought of this myself.

    • Fantastic idea. These Muppets won’t be satisfied until they have taxed us all out of existence. Living in Australia is like a game of Monopoly. Taxed at every square.

      • I haven’t read the article but what’s the exact problem with the idea? I mean, i don’t love tax. But if you accept that some tax is necessary, what’s wrong with this particular tax?

        As long as the gains being taxed are the unearned windfall gains from land appreciation (and not the value added by the owner from actual renovations and improvement) and there is a discount applied to take inflation into account… is it really that unfair?

        Especially if you used the proceeds to remove stamp duty, so the act of buying and selling a house still made economic sense for the individual…?

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Isn’t it more that such a tax did not apply to one generation, and is then re-applied to the younger generations to pay, and that part of the tax provides services for people that didn’t have to pay it.

      • In theory the Boomers would pay the lion’s share as they traded down in retirement: that home they paid $100k for back in 1980 that is now worth $1.5m — that’s a lot of CGT, although to be fair it would probably be heavily adjusted for inflation and improvements. Can you imagine trying to produce paperwork to prove all the money subsequently spent in that period?

        A minefield.

        • So after a morning’s reflection I’ve decided it’s probably economically a good idea but socially very hard to get right. I’d probably settle for CGT unchanged, a decent land tax on all land except PPORs, and abolish stamp duty.

          • How about a tax on inheritances of natural resources? Anything a person has made themself could be passed down without being taxed.

  2. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Message from the Government of the Glorious people’s Repuplic of China

    It has come to our attention that the Australian side has sided with the American side on the issue of our self declared sovereign rights over the South China Sea.

    This is a totally erroneous position . Our nine dash line which we have drawn up to enhance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people as our great leader Xi Jinping has dictated ihas a true and undisputed history going back more than 10 years .

    We urge all sides that are not on our side ( particularly the UK and Australian sides ) to deeply reconsider their position .

    China will vigorously defend any lines on the map it chooses to draw and we expect all sides to stay on the right side of those lines . This extends
    especially to gum that might be on our glorious revolutionary shoes .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-25/federal-government-joins-rejects-china-maritime-claims-at-un/12492070

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      We will pay for our support of US against China.
      Already farm products are being banned, the Chinese students and tourists were being redirected away from Australia prior to the Virus. Coal shipments are being held up at Chinese ports and now
      https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3094610/australias-spot-chinas-top-source-iron-ore-under-threat-new
      Of our top 5 exports, Iron Ore, Coal, Tourism, education and Gold , only gold is unaffected by chinese retaliation.
      In all 4 China is our biggest customer.
      The other major concern of joining the US is the risk of hot war breaking out.
      Trump will do anything to win in November, the more polls he loses the more desparate he will become.
      We are in no way able to handle China in a hot war. In a matter of days our fuel reserves will run out, our stategic reserve is in Texas and not accessable.
      This will not end well

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Heard from some young things that the BANKS
    are putting the Squeeze on the BOMAD ….no more of this having them as a second or co mortgagors in the deal ….any money advanced from BOMAD to buy the overpriced crap has to be a GIFT …..so the BANKS can soak that up on the diminished equity when things go to custard
    ……pity all those BOMAD unsecured and undocumented
    advances sitting in safe as houses bricks and mortar

    • TT
      The Australian housing market is a time bomb
      There are so many interwoven counterparts it’s about as bad as the global derivatives market

      TT this is going to end in tears beyond what anyone could imagine
      It’s a house cards that’s about to topple over = it won’t fall slowly this time

      • You know I don’t disagree but MB is certainly a very negative place week in week out. I have actually been thinking of not opening the site daily because nearly every headline is something bad.

        I was thinking maybe I should ignore it for 2-3 weeks and cut all social media too. I think I’ll feel a lot more positive. I don’t mean this to be a downer but I’ve noticed reading Daily News also. I feel ignorance can be bliss.

        • I skip a lot more articles now I’ve sold all my investments and am just looking for a house. (I do read the house prices articles! And the “social” pages 😁).

          Less stress and I seem to have more free time…!

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Gav,
            Good luck on that, I vowed not to reply any more when read lessons on keying cars, but here I am posting again like a junkie.

          • Looking for a roof over your head is different to ‘trading property’. I have no doubt the market could get ugly but my home is where I live and I really don’t care what’s it value is from one day to the next. If it halves in value, then great – my kids will have more affordable property to look forward to. Plenty of silver linings.

            The main issue surrounding property is the reverse wealth effect on the economy and what that means for jobs etc. The best thing that could happen in the long run is that the whole lot burns to the ground and the economy starts afresh — based on productive endeavour and not illusory property ‘wealth’.

        • Can't Socially Distance

          Not negative but reflecting how things are during an unprecedented pandemic. There have still been plenty of opportunities to have made money over the last few months.

        • @Gavin
          you may think MB narrative is pessimistic but ultimately MB cherishes one extreme and unfounded optimism

          there is this narrative that the world as we know it is ending just to give a birth to a new better world – which is childish position to have after the age of 21. The main ideology here is that covid will bring economy to it’s knees, houses prices will fall, immigration will end and and we will all live happily ever after

          reality is that after all that happens we will struggle for basics and turn one onto the other fighting for bones and bare life. despite all the shortcomings of our current world that new world is going to be much, much worse no matter when it comes

          It looks like most of people on MB are like optimistic revolutionaries ready to destroy everything for the promise of new and better world

          • Dr X
            I think you are correct
            It won’t be the utopia that’s discussed on here
            It’s going to be a very painful and violent period as we move into a new way of life and financial structure
            Starvation poverty illness violence
            I think you really need to leave the big cities for very small peaceful places

          • Bitter Looser Renter

            Correction: the world that is coming will be the same for the 1-2% currently at rock bottom, much much worse for 95% of the people and much better for the other 3-4%

            @bcn: the smaller ‘peaceful’ places in rural Aus are largely meth infested hell holes after 600pm now. That will not improve.

          • Locus of ControlMEMBER

            My view is that MB discusses “what is” and compares it to what could be “optimal economic policy providing greatest benefit overall”. I don’t find that so much in mainstream media, which tends NOT to offer critical analysis and instead aligns with prevailing societal expectations/ assumptions (to name just one – forever and ever rising house prices is good for everyone) without nuance or critique. That doesn’t mean that “optimal economic policy providing greatest benefit overall” will ever be realised and, rooted in Australia’s Game of Mates reality, I don’t ever expect that to come to pass. But at least I can rely on MB to shine a light on ‘what is’ at any given point in time.

          • “The main ideology here is that covid will bring economy to it’s knees, houses prices will fall, immigration will end and and we will all live happily ever after”
            I don’t think you’ll see a single person here that thinks that actually. In fact, it’s probably the authors in jest saying “Let XYZ burn!!”.. which.. who takes that seriously?
            I do share in the view however, that house prices rising so fast were a problem, immigration rates were a problem and life would be much better if these had not risen so quickly in the last 20 years. That these have now contributed to be the archilles heel of the economy is the very thing that will cause the next period to be far greater pain than was necessary, not a path to happily ever after.
            But like everything, things that happen in the world affects people to different degrees.
            So you can’t just say a blanket “it will be worse for everyone”.. perhaps. But to varying degrees of bad and bad in different parts of their life. Just like the current setting is great for some and others are struggling.. the coming era is going to be bad for some and worse for others.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          I agree Gav. It’s easy to look at the feed of Macro data and think that’s what’s happening at ground level. But the data is usually a few months old, averaged and often biased to a particular outlook.
          A couple of months before the election last year there was a lot of talk about falling house prices and the tightening of credit on MB, yet driving around the middle suburbs, there were plenty of demolitions and groundwork starting for medium and high density projects. That reality did not emerge in the Macro numbers for 3 to 6 months.
          It’s almost impossible to see, if you’re not on the ground having a look. The guys in the big short went and had a look. (That’s not possible in MEL right now😀.)
          At the moment, there are townhouses starting and demolition fences being raised. That doesn’t mean Bcn’s predictions shouldn’t be given due consideration, just that people find a way to keep going. From 100,000 ft it looks like sustaining the unsustainable. At ground level it can be different.

        • Oh yes. A few weeks of not opening any screens does a lot of good.
          For mine, I really think it is going to get a lot uglier and far more depressing than what we’re seeing right now. It’s the stories of children that I dont want to accidently trip on.
          BCN said a while back, to start preparing mentally for what is coming. I’ve been prepping husband to consider fostering kids. I think lots of community services it will be required during this coming downturn. He’s absolutely adamant NO and that I dont know what Im getting myself into. But I can’t see how I’ll be able to deal with what I will see without doing something/ anything about it. Will be looking for a house with an extra bedroom for sure.
          Having said that, the house prices part, I don’t consider it negative.. So for instance, a headline of unemployment being high is negative news even if you have a job… insecurity rises regardless. But a headline of house prices falling are only negative if you own a dwelling. So I guess, for me, it’s been a bit more balanced in terms of the news coverage.

      • Agreed. Which is why I’m anticipating a flood of free money soon.

        I love the fact that Josh is talking like the deficits are over and ‘budget repair’ has begun …. meanwhile, the monster deficits have just begun …

        • Dom – yes, classic garbage in garbage out. I stopped reading the blurb put out by Josh as soon as it started talking as if some form of virus second wave had not been factored in. I think at one point the line was that this should be an historically short recession. Not only did that assertion ignore that the second biggest economy in Australia was already back in lock-down it totally ignored the triple waterfall of wages, rent and and loans that will be happening over the next 12 months.

          • Lol Frydenberg looked like a Uni student who has been up all night putting together a last minute presentation and winging it through the lecturers probing questions.

          • It also ignored that Australia was already in a technical recession prior to covid.

    • My feeling is it’s going to get very ugly out there. Noticed a few classic cars dropping prices this week. But usually that would be enough to secure a sale. So not like market is really fallen. Rather gone from hyper inflated to inflated.

    • This was always the case, to some extent. If you are using a “loan” from BOMAD to make up your 20% deposit in order to avoid mortgage lenders insurance, you need to get a signed letter from them stating that there is no legal obligation to pay the money back.

  4. Ok so having applied for a few jobs now. A few have asked me to do tests. But at least related to the job.

    But this latest job at redacted for now, is maybe not the most thrilling company to work for. (Online Retail). Thing is, once I finished the test I was hoping to see a score or points count. But nothing.. so how do I know how I went? They may not call for a number of reasons.
    My wife was like don’t waste your time doing it. And I was almost gonna tell them to shove it. Since I have a few other interviews lined up.

    But what’s your take on these screening tests? Whirlpool forums had a mixed bag, some said they were nonsense and companies like that should be avoided. Others said it was a good qualifier.

    Thing is I have 15 years in the Industry at a reputable company. But yet still have to sit a test like it’s an entry level role. Thoughts?

    Fyi test was not in anyway related to the field. It was also not really IQ but layered questions with multiple depths designed to confuse you. I’m not sure what it will prove exactly.

    • I’d be tempted to tell these clowns to get f****d

      I’d hire you on the strength of your input on this blog personally, as is the QLD way (connections, personality, schools etc) but that sounds like unnecessary intervention to me. They’re either interested or not – not sure how competitive your industry is, obviously ..

    • I find they’re usually some derivative of this:

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers%E2%80%93Briggs_Type_Indicator

      A lot of asking the same question multiple different ways etc. to try and discover your “personality type”. I do not bother with these applications, waste of time. If it isn’t directly related to the role it’s a waste of time. If you can do the job and prove it, you’re worthy of consideration, anything else is just unnecessary.

      • Yeah I can’t believe how much time wasting is involved in Job Applications. Endless hoop jumping as you aim to defeat the HR / Recruiter drone. It’s about like the early Super Mario Bros. you get to the end of the castle, then get told princess is in another castle.

        This test was more figuring out sequences or orders of items based on information provided. Only 1 was an actual physics question.

        Part of me hopes I aced it so if they call I can say I’m not interested anymore. 🤣

        • You should do them and in fact practice a few so you get better at them. You are unlikely to get a role predominantly on the basis of the test but you could lose one.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Yeah I can’t believe how much time wasting is involved in Job Applications. Endless hoop jumping as you aim to defeat the HR / Recruiter drone.

          When the ratio of applicants to jobs is probably 100s:1, a methodology to cut down the list to something management with fairly low administrative overheads and an acceptable hit rate is necessary.

          I’ve been through the AWS interview process and it was intensive and time-consuming, but it genuinely felt like they were using it to find the “right” people (whoever they are – I got knocked out in the last round up against one other).

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            In my exerience the ratio is closer to 1000’s:1. One costly and annoying outcome of the the rules around Newstart/Jobseeker and other visa requirements is these folks are required to apply for x jobs a month – regardless of their skills or suitability, so they apply for any job they can to meet the rules. As an employeer It’s a PITA to have to manually filter out all time wasters, tyre kickers and fluff. I can personally attest that many folks who apply are hopelessly unsuited for the role. And this was before Covid hit so I imagine it is much worse now (although I suspect there would be a many more quality candidates to choose from)

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Not that I hold standardised personality testing in a particularly high regard, but it’s a sh!tload easier to teach someone relevant skills than it is to teach them not to be a fvckwit who drags a team (or the whole organisation) into a mire.

        Cultural fit is more important than raw skills in most cases.

        • 100% agree, and I view the Interview process as a 2 way street to see if like the employer/company also. So far I’m on the fence with another company I’ve interviewed with 3 times. Not sure if I’ll be happy there long term.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            You and I are fortunate enough to be at a career stage where (generally) we are interviewing the organisation as much as they are interviewing us.

            Cultural fit works both ways.

    • To filter out “skilled” immigrants who are not skilled.

      build an API with a minimum 3 endpoints and then build a user admin frontend for it in react. You need to be able to fully administrator users including changing passwords, changing roles etc.

      employers are basically asking for “demostration pieces” which they’re actually using as free work for their business, with no real intention of hiring anyone.

      if what they’re asking for is a standalone, or easily plug-and-play-able piece of code/work, then be on the watch out for that. Either just move onto less dodgy jobs, or code it so that it’s watermarked (if possible) or has a built-in kill-switch

      https://whrl.pl/RfTvtG

      • Poochie the Rockin DogMEMBER

        Start ups are the worst for this, I got asked to build a real time dashboard that did some processing on input data and made pretty real time charts as well as, 6 pages (that would test skill at making forms???) All of it looked like code they could use in production. I should have told them to fuck off but I thought the dashboard could be kind of fun to do, so I did it – and submitted one that. But I failed the real test which was will this person go above and beyond for no financial gain and essentially be an easily controlled slave. These are the people that employers want!

        • I spent several hours doing free work for a start up called SilVR the other week.

          Not knowing if was free work but suspecting I was wasting my time. I had applied for a part time role and they told me I was over qualified but we’re interested in my skillset.

    • working class hamMEMBER

      Sounds like a like a psych evaluation?
      Multiple questions on similar topics at varying levels to see if your answers change.
      Large companies love a good standardised test, you never get results, just a follow up phone/interview, sometimes 3 months later.
      Good luck.

    • Display NameMEMBER

      I *always* have a programming test when recruiting programmers. It is never possible to finish in the given time, and always done on site as part of the interview. My experience is that this is the only way to get people who think on their feet.

      • I had a tagging teat using JQuery etc.. and that was fine because it was job related. But this latest job has questions not related to the job.

    • Reus's largeMEMBER

      Sounds like psychometric testing, once you have done one or two you can structure your answers to suit the role that you are applying for, so for example customer facing means you need to be empathetic or maybe if you are a DEV then you need to show drive and attention to detail so you can be trusted to WFH

    • Ulrike Meinhof

      I have seen recruiters do this sort of thing in the past as a simple way to sort out the desperate.
      If you finished the test then you were desperate and willing to accept a significant salary reduction. This is why the test wasn’t tailored at relevant job skills because it wasn’t ever meant to measure said skills.
      Conversely those that simply tell them to shove it are probably in high demand and will need to be offered more than their current salary.
      Interestingly there’s generally no time pressure on finding a position for the desperate but the same logic does not apply to those that are in demand
      Short answer is I’d tell them to shove it every time and even go as far as getting in their face about wasting your time.

      • I did think about this, Whirlpool forum suggested that there was evidence that those applying for roles with the Police were knocked out if their IQ scores were too high. I’m still not sure if it’s true or excellent trolling but it would not surprise me if they didn’t want some smart arse working below senior management who questions decision making processes and instead opted to hire “yes men” drones..that can’t / won’t think for themselves.

        • Ulrike Meinhof

          In the end its all about respect.
          I wouldn’t ever work for anyone that didn’t respect me, so if they start the whole process off by disrespecting me then it is pointless to continue.
          If I’m absolutely desperate and take the job I will be immediately looking elsewhere. Respect is everything

        • RanganutsMEMBER

          You are overthinking it. Do the test. The best applicants I find are the ones who put in the effort and respond the fastest. Always.

          Who wants to employ someone who cant be bothered to do the first step?!?

          • Ulrike Meinhof

            Overthinking maybe, but we’ll never know who was the best candidate if a large portion of those that consider themselves good tell you to shove the test.
            So maybe you need to recognize that your test only sorts the best of a bad bunch.
            If you gave me a paper written test then I’d probably fold it up and walk out the door and immediately post the test online.

        • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

          I’ve heard that about Police and it seems plausible. They need to be rule following black and white thinkers, who can fill out forms or do other routine. No need for complex thinkers who see shades of grey in everything they do, question the logic of directions such as fining people under the health act for driving alone in their cars which happened recently with Covid lockdown. High IQ is not compatible with basic policing so makes sense.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      The whole Google puzzle test thing is BS.

      And yet, so many people say they can code and clearly cannot. A paid trial has proved to be the best way to assess skill, and cheaper than dealing with a recruitment idiot.

      • As part of Google interviews they would often ask abstract questions with no right answer. But the idea was to test your thinking and problem solving process.

        • I don’t understand this mindset of a potential employee of “I don’t deserve to be tested like this so I will tell them to shove it”. Fair enough if you’re in a position to be selective but if you need a job you play by the rules to hand, get a job then start applying for a new job more
          Selectively . Looks better on resume to be applying for a new job whilst you have one.

          • Ulrike Meinhof

            You’re mother must be proud that she raised such an obedient little boy.
            Now run along and do as you’re told because the Adults have some important things to talk about.

    • Bitter Looser Renter

      I really feel for you Gav, not just that the job market is turning to sh!te right ATM, but having to go back into these environments where you are treated like a performing seal.

      Everyone has their 5 cents worth, so here is mine: I reckon it would be better to go with the smallest outfit you can reasonably work for that looks like they have some prospect of growth in the coming period. Those places are too small for HR bullsh!t like this, but the downside is too small for big wages, corporate travel (well that’s gone anyway) and the management is a bit rough. Both I and my brother have done this in the past in informal BA/IT jack of all trades roles that seem to abound in these tiny outfits.

      For him it worked a treat twice (left the first one after it morphed into an HR/MBA toxic wasteland of a work environment), for me it did not play out in that the outfit never grew and the boss was a psycho but it was such a great bunch of people to work with, I got paid something and it was a few years I needed for my own sanity to be out of the CBD rat race. I probably am a chunk behind where I should be financially for my age (equalising now that COVID changed it all and I am fortunately safe in current role), but have much better mental health than my peers and honestly would not do it differently.

      Problem is that all of these roles were word of mouth and that really is the key to bypassing this sh!te. Well that and doing your own startup.

      • Yeah I hear ya, I applied for a role at a small 4×4 customisation company because they are 1 suburb across from me. Pay will likely be half of what I’d get in my existing field but I think I’d enjoy it more.

        I applied for a job at Kenworth but it was through a recruitment company and the form didn’t allow for a cover letter to explain my skillset outside of my job experience. I found the recruiter on LinkedIn and sent a long message detailing why I applied. No response.

        What sucks about Covid is it limits my ability to go knock down physical doors in person. All done online which is not how I’d work during a great depression.

    • Is this psychometric testing that you have 3 sections?
      Numerical, Spacial and verbal?

      If so, that is very normal these days. People in my work were upset when an internal tfr required to retake psych testing.. and people failed! So had to stay in existing job! Awks..

  5. Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

    “Moreover, long-term trade deficits must be financed through asset sales, which can prove unsustainable over time. To carry the analogy further, the trade deficit I run with providers of goods and services I consume is benign if it is offset by the surplus I run with my employer through the sale of my labor. But the situation may prove unsustainable if I’m funding my consumption by taking out a second mortgage on my home. And that is essentially what the United States has been doing over the past three decades by running a trade deficit year after year. These persistent deficits are financed by net inflows of capital—which means that every year, the country must sell U.S. assets to foreign investors in order to sustain the gap between exports and imports.”

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/how-make-trade-work-workers

    • And when they can no longer rely on foreigners to buy their debt? Jerome Powel buys it. Life’s good!

      The problem with that is that you have now entered the zone of no return whereby there is a downward fiscal spiral that will eventually end with the destruction of the currency.

      • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

        “And when they can no longer rely on foreigners to buy their debt?” …reduced inflow of foreign capital … is bad? have the foreigners been doing this as a form of charity? What’s the purpose of a trade war?

        Lowering an overvalued currency is bad?

        • America’s very status as a debtor nation relies on foreigners buying their debt: they live beyond their means and foreigners lend them the money to be able to do it. If foreigners didn’t, the US would look a lot different all of a sudden. One day foreign buyers will completely shun US Treasuries and the Fed will have to buy the lot — monetizing every deficit. Once the RoW has lost all faith in the US Dollar it’s game over.

          As for an ‘over-valued currency’, who determines whether the currency is over-valued? It’s all a matter of perspective — I’m sure many more countries think their currencies are over-valued than under, which is why there are endless rounds of competitive devaluations. Said otherwise, a race to the bottom.

          • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

            “Recently, certain Latin American and Asian central banks began diversifying out of the U.S. dollar and increasing their purchases of Japanese government bonds. But did Japan think itself lucky that it was finally going to be able to share in the exorbitant privilege dominated by the United States? That foreign purchases of bonds would force up the yen, force down the Japanese trade surplus, and allow Japanese consumption to rise relative to production?

            Japanese authorities failed to see this as a positive. They began intervening heavily, buying U.S. dollar assets as a way of pushing down the value of the yen — which effectively converted foreign purchases of yen into foreign purchases of dollars. They refused to accept any part of the privilege and insisted on handing it back to the United States. Consuming beyond your means, in other words, is considered a curse for other countries even as they insist that it is a privilege for the United States.

            They are half-right. It is an economic curse because it forces the reserve-currency country to choose between rising unemployment and rising debt.”

            https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/09/07/an-exorbitant-burden/

            Why would surplus countries want change?

        • DominicMEMBER

          “But did Japan think itself lucky that it was finally going to be able to share in the exorbitant privilege dominated by the United States?”

          That speaks directly to my statement that all these countries are engaged in a never-ending round of competitive devaluation. In other words, if Country A takes action to reduce the ‘value’ of its currency, the flip side of that same coin is Country B’s currency appreciates … Country B then retaliates causing Country A’s currency to appreciate … and so on, ad infinitum. This whole business makes a mockery of a system of floating exchange rates. If we had a single global currency, for example, then countries would be forced to compete on a level playing field — how good would that be? Answer to the rhetorical question: extremely inconvenient for many countries hobbled by over-regulation, high minimum wage, obscene land values, meaning they’d be forced to enact sweeping structural reform — the horror!

          • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

            All your concept would lead to is capital controls and protectionism, which have been around since the dawn of industrial capitalism. I don’t have an issue with that really. But I somehow don’t think that’s what you’re after…I’m going to enjoy reading your thoughts on democracy and globalism in the future!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Why can’t anyone else grasp that last concept (that will eventually end with the destruction of the currency).

        Is it because the ones that push this stuff that do realise that are all narcissists who think they’ll be long dead by the time that eventuates?

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            (facepalm). Good point. And here I was thinking it was an economics problem. Sometimes I can be a little slow.

            Please give Arthur a Nobel nomination. Someone. Not for economics. Obviously. Peace prize? 😁

        • The alternative i.e. protecting the currency, means a significant downward revaluation of most assets, in particular stocks and property.

          I can’t see the powers that be doing the right thing for the long-term good. In the long run they are dead (and have died wealthy) and it will be someone else’s problem.

          That said, there are a few around today who’ll be alive to witness the consequences of their work.

  6. Regarding the 400 billion pound idea in the Guardian article, why not a land value tax instead of a capital gains tax on primary residences? Make it broad based and exemption free (waves at private schools, hospitals and religious groups). You’d want to cut hard at other taxes. Stamp duty and payroll tax come to mind. The regressive GST. Up the tax free threshold for income tax. And introduce the ability an ability to defer that isn’t punitive. Make sure other economic rents are dealt with as well. Some things that come to mind are invoking gas reservation to lower the cost of living, capturing more of the mining profits – they didn’t put it in the ground, and at any dodgy patent extensions. Putting a capital gains tax on the PPOR may also deter people from moving house when they’d like to.

    • Interesting idea. I think I’d support this.

      As I posted above, I also don’t really see the prpblem with CGT on PPOR. It shouldn’t dissuade moving house / house sales, it just means you pay your tax bill from your sale proceeds and have a bit less windfall profit to spend on your next house – but house prices should come down as a result, (because everyone trading up is in the same boat) so you end up in the same position.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        As I posted above, I don’t really see the prpblem with CGT on PPOR. It shouldn’t dissuade sales, it just means you pay your tax bill from your sale proceeds and have a bit less windfall profit to spend on your next house – but house prices should come down as a result, so you end up in the same position.

        Broadly speaking, house prices change proportionately the same across the board (particularly within the same geographic region).

        So anyone who needs to move “sideways” in terms of housing requirements (eg: from one family home to another family home) isn’t really getting a windfall profit, and hitting them with CGT puts them in a materially worse position, for no apparent good reason and quite possibly due to circumstances largely outside of their control (eg: having to move to the other side of the city for a new job).

        I could just barely get behind this idea for people downgrading to a smaller/cheaper PPoR, but even that IMHO is not really fair as for the majority who don’t have IPs, a PPoR is a lifetime’s savings account as much as a house, and they’ll be doing it to help fund their retirement. At the very least there would need to be a substantial, and arguably geographically localised, exemption threshold.

        Now something that would be a good idea – and I don’t understand why it doesn’t already happen – is why refinancing (or use a security) based on a higher valuation doesn’t trigger a CGT event.

        • Agree with your last point.

          The rest of it …”anyone who needs to move “sideways” in terms of housing requirements (eg: from one family home to another family home) … hitting them with CGT puts them in a materially worse position” …

          … well yes, but that problem already exists. It’s called stamp duty. As per my earlier post further above, if you abolish stamp duty and also discount the CGT for inflation then you solve some of the issues.

          (In my humble opinion, if people accept that SOME tax is a necessary evil, then rather than examining a given tax in isolation as good or bad, you should try to put them all on a spectrum from worst to least-bad and try to ensure reforms gradually move up the spectrum. There aren’t many taxes which are just lovely and good but some are worse than others).

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            … well yes, but that problem already exists. It’s called stamp duty. As per my earlier post further above, if you abolish stamp duty and also discount the CGT for inflation then you solve some of the issues.

            And Stamp Duty is a bad tax for that reason.

            LVT is better than both options.

          • Yes I think so. As long as you let poor pensioners with no income back-pay their land tax from their estate after they (both) die. Forcing them to sell while alive if they can’t afford to pay their land tax bill strikes me as a bit brutal, even if it is the most economically efficient answer – how quaint, I still believe in society it would appear!

          • @ Arrow2 you are totally right
            and not only elderly who will definitely be forced to sell and move out of their local community when they need that community the most
            but also people who lose income due to coronavirus lockdowns or getting sick or mentally ill or government screwing the economy ?

            land tax is tax on unrealised and often unintended profit and you think it’s better than taxing realised profit more often intended?

            BTW. there is nothing efficient in land tax and even more …since when efficiency is the goal of economic policy? Shouldn’t economy provide better life to people instead?

          • The reason land tax is efficient is it can’t be avoided (you can’t move or hide the land) and it encourages the most productive use of the land. It’s slightly brutal, ie if you can’t afford to pay land tax to have a big parcel of land sitting idly, you are incentivised to sell it to someone who can find a more efficient use for it.

            Now is it fair that people who have lost their job etc have to keep paying it? Well they still have to pay GST, rates, CGT on their shares, whatever it is, they don’t get an exemption just for being unemployed, they are sitting on a huge asset (land) and shouldn’t be crying poor, just sell it!

            However I agree this is too brutal. We should be a society not just a market, and the above entrenches inequality as the rich buy out the poor, which is why some equitable means of deferment would also be necessary as I think footsore pointed out.

          • Arrow – there’s a parcel next door to us that’s a 2ac paddock in a small village. There’s a DA approved to divide it into 1/2 ac lots. The owner is sitting on it and letting it appreciate. A land tax would force him to sell it , creating rateable parcels which helps the council.

            This landbanking sh5ts me

          • Exactly swampy, that’s the kind of thing that needs to be stopped.

            So after a morning’s reflection I’ve decided CGT on PPORs is possibly economically a good idea but socially very hard to get right. I’d probably settle for keeping CGT unchanged, a decent land tax on all land except PPORs, and abolish stamp duty.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            As long as you let poor pensioners with no income back-pay their land tax from their estate after they (both) die.

            Seems reasonable. Or an exception for the unemployed. It can
            be managed.

            There are few situations where a land tax is “brutal” rather than “better for everyone”, and these are fairly easy to work around manage.

            So after a morning’s reflection I’ve decided CGT on PPORs is possibly economically a good idea but socially very hard to get right. I’d probably settle for keeping CGT unchanged, a decent land tax on all land except PPORs, and abolish stamp duty.

            CGT unchanged ? How about a CGT event if you do anything to leverage the appreciation of property (ie: “equity mate”) ?

            What are you trying to achieve ?

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            land tax is tax on unrealised and often unintended profit and you think it’s better than taxing realised profit more often intended?

            The “profit” in either case is as likely to be unintended as not.

            Shouldn’t economy provide better life to people instead?

            You mean like not punishing people who want to (or must) change houses, just to satisfy your moral panic about a handful of “flippers” ?

            The underlying premise that someone shouldn’t be able to sell their house, and then buy another identical house right next with the proceeds because that’s not “fair”, is absurd on its face.

          • @Swampy & arrow2

            If you think land tax is efficient because it cannot be avoided and would force people to sell I have a news for you. Those things can easily be ensured by making CGT tax better.
            First thing is that it should be triggered on all title tranfers and also for significant family trust and corporate events.
            CGT should be made progressive based on profit size relative to sales value with rates going as high as 70% in extreme cases.
            Profit portions due to rezoning shoukd be taxed at 90 or higher – flat rate

    • Regarding the 400 billion pound idea in the Guardian article, why not a land value tax instead of a capital gains tax on primary residences?

      because land tax is tax on money that doesn’t exist – so would force people who lose income to sell or get into a debt (if they are lucky someone gives them a loan)

      CGT tax is actually taxing income, money people have on hands and as such will not force anyone onto street or into a debt

      so is it better to have a tax that kicks people out of their house or tax that makes people less likely to move frequently: first one destroys local communities the second one strengthens communities

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Well put DrX.

        A land tax would only promote the further destruction of neighborhoods by incentivizing building to the maximum usage of a block’s planning rules. In so doing, maximizing rents, and minimizing the proportion of tax paid on rents.

        Capital Gains Tax, is a tax on income. A land tax is really a land rent.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          A land tax would only promote the further destruction of neighborhoods by incentivizing building to the maximum usage of a block’s planning rules.

          Uh huh. As opposed to the system we have today which has… done exactly that ?

          The reading I’ve done suggests LVT does not drive this outcome. But if you can find some examples where LVT has driven this outcome I’d be interested to read about them (outside of areas that would otherwise increase density any like CBDs and transport hubs).

          • Property tax (significantly comprised of LVT) is of the biggest drivers of long term terminal inequality in USA

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Uh huh. But all the other recurring costs of home ownership, not to mention loss of workers rights, wage suppression – heck, let’s just go everything neoliberalism – is not ?

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        so is it better to have a tax that kicks people out of their house or tax that makes people less likely to move frequently: first one destroys local communities the second one strengthens communities

        LOL. The same sort of logic that would abolish the no-fault divorce “to keep more marriages together”.

        • You analogy is not right
          Les divorces would not make marriages any better, just makes divorse stats better.
          People living in one location for longer makes communities stronger while making all other stats currently favourable stats worse
          Stats don’t matter, reality does

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            My analogy is correct.

            Strong communities are built from people who want to live together. Not people who are forced to live together.

          • Strong communities are build from people who grow up together and whose parents grew up together …

            The idea that people should live only next/with people like themselves to build strong communities is a fairytale … as we saw in last few decades. Such suburbs are not communities but just collections of posers who don’t know much or anything about each others and who care even less about the others.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Fvkc it, you’re right.

            People should totally spend extra hours getting to and from a job across town rather than move closer.

            Parents who bought a 2-bed house as a couple should be punished for buying something bigger with child #2 on the way.

            Can’t maintain a yard any more ? Tough luck, you’re gonna get punished if you want to move into something lower maintenance.

            Etc.

            So much for your “quality of life” and “but muh freedoms” rhetoric.

    • Land tax equals downward mobility for the middle class.
      Lose your job, cant pay taxes, lose your land forced to pay rent to the new owners, stuck in a downward cycle of poverty.
      Your children are now the underclass as class divides are increasingly hardened.
      Its what happened in feudal societies , it s what happened in the last great depression.
      Its in my opinion the worst idea that is regularily brought out on MB.
      Stamp duty and CGT is at least a partial choice, and as other point out a tax on a transaction you choose to partake in.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Land tax equals downward mobility for the middle class.
        Lose your job, cant pay taxes, lose your land forced to pay rent to the new owners, stuck in a downward cycle of poverty.

        Indeed.

        Because as we all know, if you lose your job with a mortgage and can’t pay all your other bills, nothing bad happens.

        Stamp duty and CGT is at least a partial choice, and as other point out a tax on a transaction you choose to partake in.

        LVT is just as much a choice. Don’t want to pay it ? Don’t buy a house.

        • Mortgages can be paid off, rent can never be. Hence the inter-generational poverty.
          You get kicked out of your house if you dont pay rent too.
          Mortgages are tranferrable between banks if your bank raises the cost beyond market reality.
          Taxes can be hiked arbitarily,
          As for buying a house being a choice im guessing your not a family man Dr smithy, or you are wealthy enough to have never had to worry about sheltering one.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Mortgages can be paid off, rent can never be.

            When it comes to owning a home, there are a lot more bills than the mortgage.

            All of your other complaints are equally applicable without a land tax.

    • Lack of CGT on primary residence has just artificially driven capital into housing. It’s a big reason, along with the combination of negative RAT rates and immigration, that house prices are outside the possibilities for young families. , Tax the damn places!

  7. INTERESTED IN SURVIVAL ? … IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO BE AFFORDABLE …

    Working from home: Why professional workers should be worried … Allister Heath … UK Telegraph / New Zealand Herald

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12350667

    … concluding …

    … Disruption and redistribution

    There will be a redistribution of power from extroverts to introverts, from those with good verbal skills to those with better writing abilities. Empathy will be valued more highly as face-to-face communication diminishes.

    The new order will be bad for the upper-middle-class Left-illiberal consensus, too. The globalisation of the jobs market will destroy the idea that trade inevitably focuses on neighbouring regions – the anti-Brexit “gravity model” will be disproved.

    The working-from-home revolution will also sprinkle Champagne socialists into Tory areas, making urban refugees less Left-wing (by tackling the economic cause of their discontent, including house prices) and exposing them to other ideas and values. It will level up towns, villages and rural areas, bolster home-ownership and car transport, and bankrupt public transport.

    Countries will need to work harder to remain attractive. World-class internet will be crucial, as will larger homes. Hiking taxes will become intolerable – in a world of unprecedented economic mobility, jobs will simply vanish if states seek to fleece taxpayers – and there will be an extra premium on good schools. The Government will need to reform universities to ditch useless courses.

    The upper middle classes are blissfully unaware that they are sitting on the same ticking timebomb that detonated under blue-collar Britain 50 years ago.

    They’d better enjoy their work-life balance while it lasts.

    • Blue collar work may become more valued. Eg: mechanic nearby can’t be outsourced to Indian easily. You could argue modern cars are very computerised and this is true, but have you ever tried to get Optus to support your non functioning NBN from an Indian call centre. Talk about hair pulling experience. Also mechanical things are far easier to diagnose in person and in terms of a car easier to fix if you can test drive etc..

      It’s 1 of the reasons I diversified my skill set to be able to do not just IT related things, but also know how to use tools / power tools and fabrication etc..

      I hope these skills become higher paid and more valued. So many useless upper managers who play political games but no idea if they found themselves stuck in the middle of the Simpson dessert in a broken down car.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        You would be surprised how working with your hands help in other vocations. Given or under instructions a mechanic (which I’m not) could do surgery as he/she has the feel.
        Tried a tinkle of Rachmaninoff/s Prelude in C-sharp minor Op 3. No 2 yesterday for the first time in ages but my left drilled arm hurt for the first time so only did the first page. Funny that, as been able to do all sorts of lifting without pain.
        Haroldus may have an explanation such as carpal sheath (reply would be appreciated).
        The thing is that a lifetime of knowing where your fingers are doing up nuts and bolts etc without being able to see them makes it easy to play the piano while reading the music
        While we are here does anyone here have the sheet music for Edvard Grieg/s Piano Concerto in A minor Op 16 they could attach as I’m thinking of giving it a go but not interested enough to hunt for it.
        Oh and the Simpson Desert thing. I used to help anyone stuck on the road broken down (for free). Helped a doctor once got him going. Within a week went to see him, no free lunch discount here, so maybe there’s always a sucker to help. Same as inside lane overtakers in a traffic jam, someone always lets them in.

      • And you help those middle management chnvts stuck in the desert, exactly why? Let them so something useful for once in their life and become buzzard poo!

    • I think a lot of professional industry firms are going to go down kicking and screaming on the work from home idea, despite how well it has worked out during the current crisis. For all the claimed flexibility and feigned support for work from home a lot of companies only allowed it because of the current situation. I have friends and relatives who have been effectively working from home for months now in WA, but because Perth has no verified community transmission those same bosses are demanding everyone come back to the office, simply because they dont trust people are working hard enough from home. Ive just heard one mate has quit because of that.

      • I used work from home a lot in my old role. I actually miss the interaction with colleagues. Especially when it came to problem solving and working in person with clever people. I also just like having a change of scenery (getting out of the house). Although I hate the commute

  8. Good read.

    Lunch with the FT

    Chanos sits on the finance committee of US presidential hopeful Joe Biden, who is supporting a new California law to strengthen legal protections for gig economy workers. A Biden administration raises the prospect of higher taxes. “I think it’s fair that rates of taxation on capital probably should go up, relative to rates of taxation on earned income. I know that makes me a communist on Wall Street but I’ve always felt that.”

    Baldwin-United was a piano company that had morphed into a financial supermarket. Chanos’s research pointed out inconsistencies with its numbers and recommended that investors sell the stock. It went bankrupt the following year, in 1983, at the time the largest-ever US corporate bankruptcy.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ccb46309-bba4-4fb7-b3fa-ecb17ea0e9cf

    Enron, Luckin Coffee, Tesla

  9. Arthur Mosley

    Air Pollution levels in Melbourne have officially reached ‘unhealthy’ levels, above 150 for pm2.5, but there is zero media coverage.

    This is despite air pollution causing 3,000 deaths yearly in Australia and having a whole slew of very bad effects for anyone who doesn’t die.

    Its an easy resolution to ban suburban chimneys and subisidise their replacement with modern heating. You can get a ducted heating system installed for about $6,000, which across 500,000 households is $3billion, or 1.5 weeks worth of COVID lockdown. Get people to pay it back over 5 years and tack it onto the council rate for their property if you have to.

      • Why not both?

        Lockdown and stop the coal. It will save lives, lungs and the planet. Yeah the Govt will have to print more money and hand it out to people but so what. Money is just made up stuff.

        • We could do both but know we won’t
          We’ll use lockdowns to justify giving all money to the rich corporations and than use that dent as an excuse why not do anything when it comea to pollution or climate change.
          I understand your humanitarian reasons for supporting “saving lives” but reality we are facing is much different, we are facing hard choices and choosing to save few now will definately make many many suffer later, soon, very soon

      • You are like the sort of person who goes to the beach and hates sand, buys a house in the country and then calls their lawyer to place an injunction on the local farmer because their cows are mooing too early in the morning. You really are.

        “I don’t like people having fire places” – just WTF ?

        This should cause apoplexy – burning wood is carbon neutral – you know that right ?!

        Oh – and Aurthurs little repeat tantrum from yesterday was complete bollox, see my post then and today for why – he is just a boomer karren having a tanty about getting his own way and everyone being forced to live according to how he wants.

        Talk about ridiculous levels of entitlement.

        • The FallMEMBER

          Yes it is carbon neutral. Apart from all the fuel expenses delivering the wood to the city.
          But it is polluting. It causes illness. In children. Very easy to demonstrate. I consider it the equivalent of me connecting my sewerage pipe to your drinking water supply.

        • There are highly efficient slow burning wood stoves which generate max calorific value from the wood and emit hardly any smoke.

          And there are inefficient fireplaces which pump out stacks of damaging and polluting smoke and let most of the heat go up the chimney with it.

          So rather than a black or white argument “fires yes or no” there is probably a smarter middle ground…

        • Comparing sand at the beach and wood smoke in the city is an inapt comparison

          You do a good trade in shouty comments at others about how dumb they are. It’s tedious.

    • You posted the exact same thing yesterday. I was a complete lie yesterday and remains one today. The data you provided shows the best quality air – on that scale POSSIBLE. The link you provided showed a single day above acceptable. The only day other than that was during the January bush fires.

      You posted a diatribe about people “burning leaves” which is entirely fine and is carbon neutral if you aren’t aware.

      Finally the Alphington air quality station – where I live near – is right next to the Darebin Enterprise Center where they maintain the Darebin Parklands and do all the burning off, gravel etc for the entire region. So yes occasionally the wind will blow directly onto it (its directly opposite on the same road) causing it to spike.

      The gravel pits, dirt, mulch, fertilizer is also maintained and stored there.

      On the otherside of this air station is the single biggest suburban development in Melbourne for possible decade with the Yarra Bend paper Mill redevelopment which regularly kicks up a fair amount of dust.

      Well done to you – could you possibly be any more of a hand wringer, a bigger BOOMER KARREN.

      https://aqicn.org/city/australia/melbourne/alphington

      Seriously – its people like you who make living in the city insufferable with your whinging and complaining and demanding everyone abide by your personal rule set you devised on made up, exaggerated hubris.

      • Sadly, for all your statistics, the fact remains that for many, cities’ air is toxic.

        Writing from personal experience, after ten years living in country Vic I moved back to Melbourne four years ago. Asthma that had been absent for 40 years resurfaced. Doctor advised me to move away from Melbourne. Moved in March to small country town – bingo lungs clear, no asthma. Bliss.

        Except can’t walk in the evenings as the smoke from all the wood fires are anathema. Just saying.

        • I’m not saying that it is NOT toxic – of course it is. I am talking about this particular posters ridiculous claims and reading of the data supplied by them as being absurd.

          Air quality is horrific primarily due to fine particulates from diesel and unleaded petrol in cars.

          • So why is there so much smoke despite there being much less traffic since today is Sunday and we’re under lockdown and it’s too cold to want to go anywhere anyway?

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Why is there so much smoke? Because it’s cheaper to heat a house with a wood fire than un-zoned ducted has heated ATM.

            Fkn gas bill. Fkn, fkn, fkn.

    • I back this… getting smoke like during the bushfires (on the gentler days) but it’s entirely man-made. Ffs, put on an oil heater, ar$eholes.

    • Totally agree as someone allergic to wood fired smoke. However, I wonder if the pollution levels in cities are not mainly caused by the small particulates in diesel? I had to move out of Melbourne due to air pollution. I advise anyone suffering asthma/bronchitis etc to at least give it a go for three months. Miraculous for me.

      Just be wary of small towns that in winter all burn wood.

  10. Bank Watch: Essential Bootcamp equipment

    A regular Bootcamp in the local park usually involves some basic fitness equipment including slam balls, kettle balls and battle ropes. Bootcamp for bankers is no different and the following is an outline of the special equipment required by the exercise routines outlined in Bank Watch: Bootcamp for bankers .

    It is assumed that Day 1 of the Banker’s Bootcamp is 1 January 2021, although an earlier date is possible if the Bootcamp Drill Masters are able to set up the drill cones quickly.

    The Bootcamp equipment has been designed to allow for maximum choice and flexibility as flexible strong joints are always a good objective of a fitness routine.

    https://theglass-pyramid.com/2020/07/26/bank-watch-essential-bootcamp-equipment/

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The Seattle City Council voted for a 50% reduction in police funding and disallow the police to use non-lethal crowd control. What’s the alternative?

    • Trump could have won if he’d responded to this strongly, but I think it’s more bullish for Biden, because he represents a return to normality where anarchists don’t f*ck sh*t up for weeks on end with a minimal government response.

      Perhaps it’s not Trump’s fault at all, but I think the average punter won’t be thrilled with his weak response.

      I would have sent in the troops tbh. The people who’d whinge and cry tyranny will always do that regardless of what Trump does or does not do. They have no credibility and are useless as a barometer.

      • Sent in The Troops?!
        Into a civilian population armed to the teeth. That’s why they are so armed – to ‘protect’ themselves from The Troops going in. It’s not ‘whinging’ – it just an historical fact.

        • The rioters are not “the civilian population”. They’re a small, militant bunch who’ve just discovered that the authorities are a paper tiger with neither the will, nor the capability, to deal with them.

          Some of them are armed, yes. A few of them have used those arms on police and random passersby.

          I’m not proposing some sort of My Lai massacre or something. They don’t even need to use live ammunition. But the rioters need to be arrested and detained (all of them, not just a few) and the force that is tasked with doing that needs to be appropriately equipped and supported to do the job, and not subject to the ideologies of mayors and governors.

          Believe me, if this happened in Australia or in NZ, the troops would have been sent in by now, I have no doubt. There’s only one factor keeping them from going in and that’s the civilian access to arms. But the longer this drags out, the more destructive it’s going to be, and the more people are going to see that there aren’t really any rules here and take matters into their own hands (on the side of the rioters and anti-rioters). If government is to have any legitimacy, it needs to show that it actually has the capability to put down insurrection.

          • Protesting structural inequality before the law and prison industry population stock is equated to an insurrection?

            BTW Biden has deep ties to the Prison Industrial complex and its PE managers so don’t think for all the signaling that his betters would be softer than Trump, lest we forget the 14 city para military crack down on Occupy – almost Argentinian in its application.

          • I was expecting you to reply that Wall Street are the real looters (which is true).

            Anyway, it’s nice if you think that ransacking businesses and state properties and attacking police officers is protesting but I don’t. I expect that you don’t really know what’s going on. If you go on Twitter and look at Andy Ngo or Ian Miles Cheong, you can see video of what the so-called protesters are actually doing, and it’s not waving around signs or putting flowers into gun barrels.

            In fact, I haven’t seen any footage of an actual peaceful protest in probably around a month. People used to post it to contrast all of the nighttime violence, but either they’ve lost interest or the peaceful protests wound up. That seems likely, since normal people do peaceful protests and normal people don’t have time to protest every day for months.

            Occupy was much more peaceful than this.

        • You should subscribe to NarcoVideos Janet.

          US police are dealing with the most heavily armed drug cartels on the streets of America on a daily basis. People post photos of SWAT teams entering neighborhoods which are effectively controlled by by straight up Mexican cartels with .3 .5 cal gatling guns and claim “militarization of our police”. Defund the police.

          And they do.

          The lack of accountability through the Police Union in the US has been the problem. The low level of education and lack of basic intelligence required by police is another one. Financialisation of police another.

          The actual facts behind BLM are the most ridiculously absurd narrative every pushed.

          Whites are killed by police at a far higher number. Whites are killed at a FAR higher rate while interacting or being arrested by police. While there was 11,000 homicides in 2017 – 60% of those were by blacks. Similar figures for roberry, assault etc.

          The ONLY statistic where whites are in proportion for their population ratio is public drunkeness and drink driving. Every other statistic blacks are two-six times over represented in the stats.

          But you never hear those stats – thats racist. You only hear stats as a percentage of total US population incarcerated, shot by police etc.

          • So BLM protestors are heavily armed drug traffickers. They can certainly disguise themselves well 🙁

          • That is hilarious considering how much of the so called drug cartel enterprise was funded and washed by wh!tecollar sorts decades ago, similar to the run up in the German experience or prohibition wealth creation event and all the dirty wars in central America.

            Rayguns administration was completely aware of what was going down in Miami, but all that drug money was offsetting a recession in Florida at the time and an a election was on the horizon. The only thing that threw a spanner in it was the parking lot ambush and it getting national MSM eyeballs. That forced Raygun to send in the head crackers so he and his looked good to the unwased aka like your mindset above.

            Lmmao some have a memory hole like a fruit fly …

  11. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Jebus, Treasurer Turdburger just went all in on his Reagan/Thatcher trickle down nonsense. Also Howard/Costello.

    Hang on folks, we’re ramming this iceberg at full speed.

  12. Something for the hard money collapseniks …

    Corporate profits = Investment + Dividends/buybacks – Household savings – Government savings – Rest of world savings – this is the Kalecki Profits equation.

    • @skippy.

      Not sure if you are laughing at the idea of a downgrade in ratings – or whether that matters.

      Fact is – we are going to get downgraded – and its going to matter in a massive way. People have just forgotten about this issue – it used to be the only thing this website talked about 5 years ago.

      Our “floater that just wont flush” is because foreign banks, pensions, 401k, reserves, councils etc all hold AUD as it meets investment grade criteria under mandatory laws. If we get downgraded our dollar will crash through the floor.

      That rating and dollar value is also underpinning our banks. The cascade effects will be absolutely phenomenal.

      People just forget – and think, doesn’t matte – wont happen anyway. Wrong, and wrong.

        • Covid19MEMBER

          #metoo
          The more costly credit is, the better things will be priced at true value.
          I mean like, actual capitalism instead of the current socialist polit bureau central planning.
          I’d like nothing more than for the government to fvck off and stop p1ssing away my money propping up house prices.

          • repeating myself here – Corporate profits = Investment + Dividends/buybacks – Household savings – Government savings – Rest of world savings – this is the Kalecki Profits equation.

  13. I remember experts saying house prices will fall less than 5% this year. We have 5 months to go and we are already 2% down the last 4 months that is.
    And gov just announced free money will be cut substantially. I think it is fair to say, by Christmas, even by LOLogic numbers, we will be down around 8%.
    My call falls will be over 10% and much closer to 15% as falls accelerate in Nov/Dec period with panic setting in.

    https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/daily-indices

    Another 15%-20% in the first six months of 2021.

    https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/daily-indices

    • That’s not what fat Wolverine says, 2021 has a decent dose of house price inflation because everything will go back to normal then:
      https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-state-of-play

      Prices appreciated over March and April, and have gradually drifted lower thereafter. Auction clearance rates rebounded strongly prior to the surprising second wave in Victoria, which could delay the national recovery until the first quarter of next year given the seasonal downturn in prices over December and January. A second wave in NSW is another downside risk. I know the perma-bears would love for me to change my tune, but I am comfortable with the idea that this shock ends with a decent dose of house price inflation.

      • yes auction clearances jumped and that was a mix of smart money accepting lower bids while lot mugs with per-approved loans (pre covid) while on JobKepper or JobSeeker bidding higher than they could afford.
        Things changed since then and many of those bidders are now starting to realise the free money will be cut fair bit and they actually don’t have jobs.
        The fat Wolverine will turn out to be just fat RE spruiker.

        • I really do hope that will end up being the case. I somehow think as large falls start to take place he will go to more sharkies games with Scomo to convince him that a new Federal FHB grant among other measures to support house prices is a good idea until they can reopen the migration floodgates in 2021.

          • migration will have limited effect. Very few migrants now have money and too many countries trying to lure them over. UK, US, Canada.. Bringing poor migrants while there are no jobs for us is political suicide and plus will not help with RE prices when people can’t even afford to pay rent let alone to buy something.
            Most Chinese dirty polies and businessmen will now prefer US over Oz now as they know US will never ever give them over while Oz may blink if China goes full hard.
            You are right they will try everything but there is limit to what they can do when people don’t have jobs. Geopolitics and covid19 will ensure our tourism and education will be on their knees for years not months.
            And if China decides not to build empty cities game over for us.

          • i responded by my comment is moderated even though I did not use any inappropriate word so not sure what toe edit.

          • The impact on ratings and debt for the government are just too severe at this stage.

            Government has one of two options – support the economy through jobs, health, projects – or help housing. Honestly the mount required for either one is going to push our ratings into the swamp. And this is the biggest issue. A severe downgrade will hurt our economy like people just do not comprehend.

            Its being so overlooked its not funny.

            Only way housing can be saved is through MMT or some version which is adopted globally (western countries) – but such radical idea wont happen until it collapses- it will only happen as a result.

          • The mechanism in which that works are uncertain at best, basicly migration of cash rich individuals , who more or less retire in australia. And/ Or the banks loosening lending significantly and offering 50 year mortgages.
            For the first one they would possibly have to reduce taxation on overseas income.
            Banks appear to be tightening lending right now.
            Prices might go up a bit in perth/darwin if a resource boom gets going. With changes to FIFO working arrangements, you would think that would be a negative for the rest of the country.
            Also very dependent on china .

      • annualize_this

        I just came across his column in the weekend AFR. The bold quote is “I am comfortable with the idea that this shock ends with a decent dose of house price inflation”.
        How noble of Joye – in a time of a severe shock such as this pandemic – to dispense with his usual thinly veiled lobbying for banks and the RE market and concede that it might be good to not get exactly what he wants – in order to get through this. No, wait..

    • I’m looking at a property in the top ten biggest cities in Australia 1 minute from the beach, 1 minute to the CBD, 4 bedrooms 1,000 sqm – $420k

      Yeah – prices have CHANGED !

      There is a serious stink of desperation already in plenty of pockets.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          I reckon Perth

          1 Sydney New South Wales 5,230,330 4,391,674 +19.10% 20.93%
          2 Melbourne Victoria 4,936,349 3,999,982 +24.08% 19.86%
          3 Brisbane Queensland 2,462,637 2,065,996 +19.20% 9.85%
          4 Perth Western Australia 2,059,484 1,728,867 +19.12% 8.24%
          5 Adelaide South Australia 1,345,777 1,262,940 +6.56% 5.38%
          6 Gold Coast–Tweed Heads Queensland/New South Wales 679,127 557,822 +21.75% 2.72%
          7 Newcastle–Maitland New South Wales 486,704 398,770 +22.05% 1.95%
          8 Canberra–Queanbeyan Australian Capital Territory/New South Wales 457,563 391,645 +16.83% 1.83%
          9 Sunshine Coast Queensland 333,436 270,770 +23.14% 1.33%
          10 Wollongong New South Wales 302,739 268,944 +12.57% 1.21%

  14. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/cabinet-divided-over-lockdown-with-some-prepared-to-accept-up-to-250-virus-cases-a-day-20200725-p55fee.htm

    “One cabinet member, who spoke on condition of anonymity, nominated the figure of 250 cases a day and said colleagues agreed.” Nominated? When you read on this number is not a fact based assessment but, you know, it’s the vibe. These politicians should be made to suffer the same process ike everyone else rather than have access to immediate testing and top health care.

  15. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Cancel that request for Greig’s Concerto sheet music as just stumbled on it on the net and have printed all 37 pages,although I probably won’t be bothered with more than the first half dozen anyhow, we’ll see.

  16. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Intel ‘Stunning Failure’ Heralds End of Era for U.S. Chip Sector

    Intel Corp.’s decision to consider outsourcing manufacturing heralds the end of an era in which the company, and the U.S., dominated the semiconductor industry. …

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-25/intel-stunning-failure-heralds-end-of-era-for-u-s-chip-sector

    Not good news for US Technology dominance – this is the US’s, we’re going to cease all car manufacturing moment that Australia had back in 2012.

    • Heads up stewie we did not have a car manufacturing industry … we had a subsidized voter cohort that was subject to geopolitical contracts in serving offshore corporate interests[.] This ended when it no longer served those interests in advance their cause “because markets”.

      An no ethnic or otherwise sensibilities was involved in the decision, it was just money and its flows.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        An no ethnic or otherwise sensibilities was involved in the decision, it was just money and its flows.

        Are you absolutely certain of that Road Kill? Yes – of course you are, you are certain that you see everything “just money and flows” but the value system behind deciding where those flows go isn’t something that fits within your analytical framework, things like culture or ethnicity (diversity) make no difference to your simple two dimensional model.

        Me, I’m not so sure I would so calmly and definitively say that top down imposed culture change has played no part in the abandonment of manufacturing in Aust and the US. To me it is the end result of both the pursuit of unfettered Globalism (and yes, through the single lens you view everything ‘Neoliberalism’) and the sort of immigration fueled Multiculturalism that the various Corpratorcracies in the West are now pursuing.

        These forces simultaneously result in both heavily concentrated supply lines to the East, and the creation of beige societies of mediocrity in the West, as innovation gets crushed as their economies are repointed to be used as tax farms, land banks and demand induced citizenship mills.

        IMHO true Multiculturalism existed previously, with completely district societies able to freely and unconstrainedly go off an innovate from the ground up across a multitude of different view points built across hundreds of different cultures in order to solve the problems they individually faced. Now all Western culture is simply a beige melting pot where we have to be more mindful of not giving offence than we do about solving problems.

        Inevitably they will become societies of the lowest common denominator, because that is the point at which a free society can operate, like the differences in concepts of freedom between Singapore and Zimbabwe, the residents of both would find it intolerable living in the others. For one set it would be intolerable anarchy, for another intolerable authoritarianism (or perhaps that is just my view as a wh!te man supposedly having mean faculties and proclivities that lie between them?)

        The same issue exists with higher culture (nods to yesterday’s discussion on abstract thinking) which is where I believe a lot of criticism things like Math, Classical Music or even English as racist comes from.

        Complexity IS Rac!st under the current popular progressive definition, because it IS exclusionary – differences that exist between some population groups and their ability to deal with such complexity or abstraction, means that some occupations, activities, pursuits and even interests are self sorting on the basis of population group.

        The unfortunate thing is, the way our beautiful, diverse, multicultural tapestry of a society is developing, any natural differences that result in anything other than a perfectly blended society of beige, where are all equal, is a result of institutional rac!sm, oppression and bigotry. Exceptionalism is transformed into elitism.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            They will remain antisemitic conspiracy theories even as we become minorities in our own nations…. people and societies always invite other people and societies, hostile and incompatible to our own, to come in to compete against ourselves, just because.

            Remember “Diversity is our strength.” has different meanings depending on who is saying it.

            https://twitter.com/a_centrism/status/1287270130079105024

        • Display NameMEMBER

          Mostly agree. The dutch are now explicitly looking for integration from their immigrants. And they are looking to actively break up ethnic enclaves forming in the country. All cultural practices are not equal.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            So, no Dutch… pressure cookers… for the local CBD/city-adjacent populations going forward then?

    • They went toe to toe with China on chips and China just said – whatever – and threw the kitchen sink at it. US tried to stop China from being able to achieve it by blocking an essential bit of Ultra Violet kit from the Dutch (I think Dutch).

      China just said yeah – whatever and built there own.

      They are now on par with Intel and AMD for CPU and GPU chips and leading the way in AI mobile. They are on track to be fully self sufficient by 2021 and will be exporting globally by 2022.

      Absolute DISASTER of an approach – one of the biggest underestimations of China’s capabilities and resolve in modern times.

      The next biggest underestimation is going to be on Iron Ore. They just built 4 brand new ports to take in Valemax super carriers to expand African exports – each one is 4 times bigger than Aussie carriers in a direct signal that they are finished with Australia.

      People just do not understand how fast China can adapt.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Yeah the Chinese are surging in their own chip power and processing, especially AI. As you and the article pointed out Taiwan is now the main global producer. I don’t know enough about Taiwan and China’s relationship other than the political hostility, as to consider classifying them both as China? Does Taiwan take the protection of its intellectual property from China more seriously than the US, or should we consider if Taiwan has it then China automatically has it too? Either way chip design leadership and excellence is transferring to Chinese societies.

        I definitely agree with you on what China is doing with regards to Iron Ore, but I’m a more dubious as to whether or not it will succeed long term, although their projects may indeed get off the ground. IMHO it will take a lot of declining resources in order to maintain a mine that focuses on one of the most abundant resources on earth that is no risk of being exhausted.

        Either way it won’t be good for Australia…. or maybe that might be a good thing for Australians? Without high Iron ore exports and without the super-normal economic profits it generates, it will be much harder for the current citizenship mill economy to run alongside of it, which is the process that effectively converts our depleting resource endowment into imported aggregate demand that our elites harvest.

  17. migtronixMEMBER

    Is there anything more odious to humanity than the concept of a single God and His promises for the future?

    I’ve mentioned I’ve been rereading Gibbons Decline and Fall, and at every turn where that despicable ideology becomes ingrained – whether through Messianic fervour that cemented the tyranny of Empire by the security of Titus, or when the Romans embrace the Nicean creed or when the Arabs start spreading their prophets fantasy to the entire East. What invariably follows is a conspicuous procession of hypocrisy of the highest order and incongruous piety as all politics and ethics and thought becomes perverted by obscenely detailed discussions of the “after” life. What about this one??

    • Religion is the manifestation of evolutionary tribal traits around group compliance. Humans evolved as a group, tribe, troupe, like most apes – and the same enforced group compliance is common place. Once you see it – it becomes really apparent (BLM is a perfect example).

      The forced public contrition, repent, sin, group humiliation, punishment, public signals of compliance, etc. These all strengthen the group and the group selects those that place the ideas of the group above the individual thus ensuring the genetic compliance.

      Two other evolved genetic tendencies – to do what is safe and has worked on the one side (conservative) and try new things (liberal) manifest just as strongly.

      When you combine these things with the tendency for self selection, cognitive bias, or selective bias (especially in a modern world with infinite options of information) you have a cocktail for exactly what we see now – and have always historically.

      Its not religion. Its the evolutionary trait of group survival and the enforced group compliance which brought it about.

      Its bloody fascinating watching someone call another a sinner, racist, outcast, heathen, Luddite – when the reality it is just a deep evolutionary subliminal primal urge to engage in group compliance.

      Its like people confusing “love” with evolutionary instincts to reproduce.

      • Love could be considered duty above ones self, man, woman, village, state, et al.

        Per se if mig was set upon because of the hair on his head and as an act of social duties I defended him, could that be construed as love E.g. I would sacrifice or put myself at risk to protect migs rights to support a non traditional hair style and how others might view that as a moral panic.

        Conversely mig could niggle the wrong sorts for a giggle and I could stand back whilst he gets a serve as long as it does not go to far.

  18. If I hear that pukable ad with the stupid 100k 4wd with Fleetwood Mac Go your own way, GAAAAKKKK. Now Peer Green was for real, soulful masterful raw blues. RIP dude. Ohh how I wish it was the Byron Bay living Fleetwood douche who sold all his crappy songs to Aussie cars to torture us….to him FU.

    • All true but…I’m in Dominic’s class – I don’t think we can even begin to imagine the amount of printing these CB idiots are going to try.
      We have the solution of course.

  19. NEW ZEALAND: IS THE NATIONAL (CONSERVATIVE) PARTY OPPOSITION HEADING FOR ITS WORST THRASHING EVER 19 SEPTEMBER GENERAL ELECTION ? …

    Newshubs Reid Research poll out this evening …

    Newshub-Reid Research Poll: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent … NEWSHUB

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/newshub-reid-research-poll-the-destruction-of-national-under-judith-collins-as-party-sinks-to-25-percent.html

    The National Party is in full blown self-destruct mode and Judith Collins has failed to steady the ship – in fact, she’s sinking it to its lowest, darkest depths yet in for our latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll.

    These numbers are going to shift the election into hyper drive.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern celebrated her 40th birthday on Sunday, but 40 is not the number she’ll be focussed on – our poll has Labour on 60.9 percent up 4.4 points, the highest it’s ever been in our polling history. … VIEW & READ MORE via hyperlink above …

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