Sunday Supplement: 21 June 2020

 

‘Cattle on Hillside, Shoalhaven’, Arthur Boyd, 1975, Art Gallery of NSW

 

Macro & Markets

 

Asia

 

Americas

 

Europe

 

Terra Specufestorus

 

…and furthermore…

 

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Ermo saw our big mandarin tree full of fruit. Just finished retrieving all the juicy succulent mandarins out of the full green bin as she cut the tree down to size like she does with people. Opposites attract, waster/saver. ( make that hoarder/collector.) Can’t stand waste especially food.

  1. Amongst the FIRST! (this is a community service announcement so that Xo does not have to trawl through the next 400 comments).

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        triage and CharlieM.
        re T.D.S. yesterday
        Leaving Trump aside,
        Medical T.D.S, is mitigated by lifting heavy objects all your life.

        • Hi boomy – great news is that the gyms are open! Yee Haa! In the ACT they had a soft opening of gyms a couple of weeks ago where you had to book in advance starting at a set time and you only had less than an hour per day but as of the end of last week they are effectively fully open again. About the heaviest weight I lfit these days is when I get out of bed but the great thing I find about gym work is that I always, always feel better after a session than beforehand. So good for mental health, and hopefully good for physical health.

    • DominicMEMBER

      I will get my cheque, ya know. Eventually.

      ScoMo and Josh are late developers, that’s all.

    • Gavin, in my view once you accept UBI, you have lost all moral authority to complain about any Wall Street/Banksters shenanigans, in that you are partaking in the same ‘Free Money’ bacchanal as the ones you despise.
      Speaking for myself, to get UBI would mean to sell my soul to the Devil.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        A UBI helps put food on the table and a roof over the head of the poorest member of society.

        A Wall St bailout helps the richest of society escape the consequences of their own greed.

        At *worst* a UBI achieves the former while somewhat enabling the latter.

        How are these things morally equivalent ?

        • We already have social security for the poorest members of society.
          In my understanding universal meant that everybody gets some government scrip, whether you need it or not.
          For me this is a bribe to stop people criticising the biggest heist in human history.

          • Nonsense Sacha.
            1) Give all people their fair share of natural resources such as land
            OR
            2) Give all people a UBI funded by rent paid by users of natural resources such as land

            Would you reject your fair share of natural resources (which no human created)?
            If not why then would you reject the UBI equivalent funded by users of the natural resources you did not receive?

          • I am an immigrant, so I can’t lay claim to a ‘fair share of natural resources such as land or rent paid by users of said land’.
            You could do 1) and 2) but then you’d also have to close the border.
            You see, once you get governments trying to solve problems, they usually end up creating monsters for which they then see the need to implement more government to keep sorting out their past boondoggles.
            In stead of a UBI, paying less tax would be much simpler and cheaper solution.

        • A UBI was conceptualized back in the day as a means to fob off slack labour, as well any targeted government programs, strangely or not the libertarian minded left has drank the cool aid based on “human rights” branding.

          Sadly its more susceptible to looting by Wall St and PE mobs because they can front run everything, great for setting up a balance sheet with government funded stripends in perpetuity. Better yet a UBI without productivity attached to it is a sure way to generate inflation of the bad sort and its recipients forego all rights to any said productivity and the rights it imbues.

          That’s not to say for the sake of political expedience a UBI could be used in conjunction with a JG in the rollout.

          • I am GrootMEMBER

            Great comment. Am able to appreciate your comments all the more when they are communicated in this straightforward manner.

          • “.. the libertarian minded left …”

            Huh?

            So libertarians can now be lefties?

            For years you have been insisting that ANYONE with even a sniff of interest in individual self-determination or action was a a closet right winger seeking to dismantle all forms of collective action or public interest.

            Tell us more about these lefties with libertarian tendencies.

            Any examples?

          • This paper suggests UBI may provide short-term support as job losses transition largely benefitting current generations but imposing greater tax burden on future generations particularly if not formulated with measures to ensure ongoing productivity.

            https://www.nber.org/papers/w27351#fromrss

            On a much smaller scale some employers report difficulty getting JobKeeper recipients sufficiently enthused to resume work.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            Well we are imposing that greater tax burden for future generations to subsidise tax write offs for tradies and small business, home renovations for the affluent and the hollowing out of the Australian economy to minimise real estate losses for speculators at the moment. All of those would not pass within barge pole length of any ongoing productivity assessment.

            Come on out and say it 3d – Australia needs

            1. INDUSTRY POLICY
            2. Economic diversity and competitiveness
            3. Real time transaction transparency and greater corporate taxation compliance and auditing
            4. an address of the intergenerational discrimination in budget outlays
            5. Labour inspections (at both state and federal level)
            6. An audit of every last contract awarded by the public sector to ensure benefit for Australian taxpayers
            7. A Royal Commission into Australian political corruption, compliance with the Australian constitution, the links between business and politics, and links to foreign states leading to the establishment of an AUSTRALIAN CORRUPTION and PUBLIC INTEREST COMMISSION which has its own investigation and policing capacity
            8. An audit of every individual taxation return by every Australian and every Australian business for 30 years (which can easily be done with AI these days)
            9. An open publicly accessible real time register of incomes declared to the ATO (and concessions/offsets acrued) by all Australians and all corporates active in Australia.

            They’d get more out of a UBI – especially as they are wearing the biggest hit of the COV19 unemployment

          • Xo …. pray tell how the future pays back the past with taxes – their dead.

            Suggest Kelton’s book to further examine the inaccurate view of hard money concepts transferred to our currant fiat system.

          • Pfh007.MEMBER

            Quite a crowd on the libertarian left.

            So Chomsky has drunk the Kool- Aid?

            Big government bank loving Skippy does not approve of course.

          • You made a comment questioning the perspective of a libertarian left, your ignorance was corrected, no need to engage in compounding error with meaningless conjecture.

          • Pfh007.MEMBER

            Snippy,

            You don’t evade the issue that easily old chum.

            You said

            “…strangely or not the libertarian minded left has drank the cool aid based on “human rights” branding…”

            You made one of your typical smearing blanket statements, this time about the libertarian minded left and claimed they support the UBI cool aid (sic) based on human rights branding …whatever that gibberish might mean.

            Who are you are talking about?

            Chomsky?

            If not tell us which “libertarian lefties” you think have drunk the libertarian right’s UBI Kool aid.

          • Kelton is an utter quack, skip. A brain dead cu next Tuesday. If you think she has credibility that renders you with none.

            Sorry, but that’s the truth

          • That proselytizing evangelicalism of yours is not an argument nor is it a refutation of hers or MMT works. You have to refute and provide attribution Dom, not really your camps style IMO.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          We already have social security for the poorest members of society.
          In my understanding universal meant that everybody gets some government scrip, whether you need it or not.
          For me this is a bribe to stop people criticising the biggest heist in human history.

          Not that I support a UBI – a JG social security comprehensive public services are a better solution mechanically and morally – but it _would_ help the poor, especially since current social security levels are inadequate, and isn’t really the same thing as (just) bailing out Wall St.

          There’s not really a bribe anywhere. Plenty of [upper-]middle-class social security exists already (Child Care Subsidy being an obvious one), a UBI would simply replace that. At least in most models that are put forward these days – the more lefty versions tend to keep social security payments on top of a UBI, because those people have generally put actual systemic thought into it (rather than the libertarian “because markets!” solution to everything).

          The typical contemporary UBI advocate (eg: Yang, various Tech Bros) is proposing a system that *replaces* social security (sometimes immediately, sometimes over time), usually with a longer view to eliminating all public services, and having privatised “equivalents” paid for via the UBI (because markets!). This is less about supporting or “bribing” _private_ citizens, and more about garnering (or bribing) private sector support through making it a subsidy-by-proxy and releasing them from their part of the social compact to provide liveable wages. From an ideological perspective it’s also about promoting the Meritocracy (they also tend to be of the opinion that no disadvantage other than economic disadvantage exists).

          • Would there be a better/easier less bureaucratic way of handling social security as we know it, sure.
            We could also get rid of social security as a whole except for people that really need it, i.e. the poor and disabled. Then we could all pay a whole lot less tax and take more responsibility for our own actions with the extra money we have in our pocket.
            I am saying that in general terms free money does not exist, in the end it is always the tax payer paying for it. We’ll be paying for all the free money stolen in high finance, and the lesser free money handed out to people that don’t need it under UBI, that was the point of my comment to Gavin. I see it as two wrong that don’t make a right.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/taxes-for-revenue-are-obsolete.pdf

            Of the reasons to dislike a UBI, money to people who don’t “need” it is a ways down the list (and trivially simple to recover via tax if you really want to).

            The only way to meaningfully help the poor & middle classes by reducing tax is to raise the tax free threshold substantially – which by your worldview requires commensurate tax increases to high income earners to “pay” for stuff – not what you are advocating, I suspect and still wouldn’t help the under-/unemployed.

          • We have social security to help under-/unemployed. Whether you think that system works well, or if it’s enough to have a decent living on is a topic for another discussion.
            Sorry, but life is unfair, this is something that has to be accepted. We can’t help everyone that has some sort of real or imagined need. Unfortunately people don’t seem to be able to imagine the results of their actions by simple contemplation, instead they have to learn through pain. If you keep handing out money to protect people from their own actions and resulting pain, they will never learn, and consequently you are not really helping them. This also applies to corporations and businesses.
            As much as I oppose government subsidies helping to bail out the finance industry, I also oppose it subsidising property investors or a woman on welfare that has five children from three different fathers. All these subsidies do is to create moral hazard and make the problems worse in the long run.
            Better get rid of all tax benefits, most of social security, most medicare and old age pension. Taxes could come down enormously and with now a lot more income left over, let people take responsibility for their own actions, they would be able to save for their own retirement or hospital visit. If you then decide to p!$$ it all agains the wall during your lifetime so be it, and you can end your last days sleeping under a bridge for all I care.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Most people reliant on social security to survive aren’t suffering from moral hazard, they’re suffering from people like you.

            Massive tax reductions do little to help the poor, or even middle classes. They do a lot to help the rich, however, and would consequently accelerate pretty much all the bad stuff that’s been happening for the last few decades.

            Similarly, public services provide little benefit to the rich but massive benefit to the poor and middle classes. So eliminating or reducing them would likewise accelerate the decay of the last few decades.

            Just be patient. Conservatism has been resurgent for 10-20 years now. You’ll get your neo-Feudalism and Meritocracy soon enough.

          • There you go again trying to protect people. Stop treating them like little kids.
            Massive tax reductions will help everyone. The poor, middle class and the rich will all end up with more income.
            Public service in general provides little service to anyone, not even the poor. They are mostly unproductive and wasteful. If it would make you feel better you could take the money saved from abolishing useless public service and donate it to the poor and middle class directly, much more efficient that way and they would end up with a lot more money in the hand.
            I am not at all sure about your prediction regarding resurgent conservatism. To me it looks more like that we first have to play out the existing system till the bitter and painful (see, we learn through pain, bummer) end, before we can, hopefully, come to our collective senses.
            I am not a proponent of neo-feudalism, far from it. Regarding meritocracy I have to get back to you because I’ve been reading here that the meaning of the word has changed over time, or at a minimum denotes different things to different people.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            There you go again trying to protect people. Stop treating them like little kids.

            Your premise is broken.

            Massive tax reductions will help everyone. The poor, middle class and the rich will all end up with more income.

            THe rich will end up with vastly, disproportionately, more income, even with the substantial flattening and reduction of the rax system over the last 20-30 years. The poor and middle classes cannot afford to pay for the essential things you think taxes pay for, especially once the inevitable monopolies and oligopolies take them over.

            Public service in general provides little service to anyone, not even the poor.

            Uh huh. Roads, education, healthcare, utilities, food safety standards, the entire legal system, etc, etc, etc.

            Yep, nothing useful there.

            They are mostly unproductive and wasteful. If it would make you feel better you could take the money saved from abolishing useless public service and donate it to the poor and middle class directly, much more efficient that way and they would end up with a lot more money in the hand.

            No they wouldn’t.

            I am not at all sure about your prediction regarding resurgent conservatism. To me it looks more like that we first have to play out the existing system till the bitter and painful (see, we learn through pain, bummer) end, before we can, hopefully, come to our collective senses.

            It’s not a prediction, it’s been happening for some time. increasingly distinct classes, Increasing inequality, steady decay of public/citizen influence, undermining of democracy, increasingly authoritarian Governments.

            I am not a proponent of neo-feudalism, far from it. Regarding meritocracy I have to get back to you because I’ve been reading here that the meaning of the word has changed over time, or at a minimum denotes different things to different people.

            What do you think you’re arguing for if not winner-takes-all, social darwinism where most success is driven by inheritance and luck ? Because when you (continue to) disassemble all the protections, checks and balances lined up against the wealthy and powerful, that’s what you get.

          • Of course the rich (or high earners) will end up with more income. Get over it.
            Think about what you are saying, if even “the middle class can’t afford to pay for essentials” don’t you then stop to think that the whole system is broken. If we keep going the way we’re going (your way) that is only going to get worse.
            Essentials are mostly unaffordable because your beloved big government keeps sticking their nose in markets that are mostly perfectly capable of regulating themselves giving a better result that is more affordable. Monopolies and oligopolies can eventuate over time in markets, but you can make laws against any concentration of power, finally something useful the government could do. If I say let the free market sort it out that doesn’t mean anything goes and profit comes before everything else.
            As I said public service ‘in general’ provides little service, we have too much of it. There is some useful PS. There has to be a fair use of common good.

            “Re-establishment of ruling classes, Increasing inequality, steady decay of public influence, undermining of democracy, increasingly hierarchical structures.” This can all be blamed on the financial system we have and the collusion between government and (central)banks. As I keep saying here every time, before deliberating about the different political factions, start with the essential basics first: how is money created, who controls it and how is this enormous power used. Everything we are talking about on this blog flows on from that most important question. If you don’t start with the fundamentals all else is moot.

            “What do you think you’re arguing for if not winner-takes-all, social darwinism where most success is driven by inheritance and luck ? Because when you disassemble all the protections, checks and balances, that’s what you get.” I have never said anywhere that I want to disassemble all protections, checks and balances. Again, free market doesn’t mean anything goes.
            If you want to call people taking responsibility for their own life Social Darwinism then so be it.

          • Sacha everything you just said is what got us to here in the first place, not that after the Powell memo and Chicago school antics the faithful crack on about government failure.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Think about what you are saying, if even “the middle class can’t afford to pay for essentials” don’t you then stop to think that the whole system is broken. If we keep going the way we’re going (your way) that is only going to get worse.

            The system is breaking because we’re reverting back to YOUR way.

            MY way is social democracy with strong and comprehensive public services, liveable social security, low wealth and income inequality, strong workers rights, near 100% employment with liveable salaries and strong regulations on private industry.

            If I say let the free market sort it out that doesn’t mean anything goes and profit comes before everything else.

            Yeah, it really does. We know it does, because as soon as anyone suggests anything that might step in the way of “anything goes and profit comes before everything else” people like you lose your sh!t.

            As I keep saying here every time, before deliberating about the different political factions, start with the essential basics first: how is money created, who controls it and how is this enormous power used. Everything we are talking about on this blog flows on from that most important question. If you don’t start with the fundamentals all else is moot.

            O lordy. Are you arguing for a hard money system which would give the wealthy even more power than they have now ?

            I have never said anywhere that I want to disassemble all protections, checks and balances.

            Basically the only thing you argue for is disassembling protections, checks and balances – under the guise of “personal responsibility”, or “learning through pain” – and then replacing them with free market fairy dust.

          • It’s all very ultra binary for you isn’t it.
            But I guess it must be easy to live in a binary world where you don’t have to think too much, and a non-thinking society is exactly what you want to create, and probably even force, on others because you and government and public service know intimately what is best for the people.
            You want to live in a society where people are mollycoddled from cradle to grave. Treated like grown kids, every time they do a poo-poo government will be there to clean up after them. See the unis where ‘adults’ have safe spaces and need trigger warnings for possible hurtful words. What a disgrace. This gets you a country of softy cry babies that can’t deal with any adversity in life. A country full of failures, exactly what we are seeing now, this is YOUR way and you want to perpetuate it. You think you are doing good, instead you leave a trail of destruction behind. You are like a doctor that leaves a rotting wound to fester because you haven’t got the nerve to make the hard decisions, and now the patient dies. You essentially want to create a society that is killing itself, and when it dies you’ll still find something or someone else to blame for it.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            It’s all very ultra binary for you isn’t it.

            Uh, no. You are the one who can only seem to conceive of either unforgiving darwinism or “mollycoddled from cradle to grave” with nothing in between.

          • I’m for free choice. For your information that means binary AND everything in between.
            You will be able to lead your mollycoddled from cradle to grave pitiful existence by insuring yourself through the free market up the wazoo against all the hurtfulness that life throws at you, real or imagined.
            I will lead my own life with the least amount of government interference and not having to pay for other peoples failures, while staying as far away from you as possible.

    • No need to ban Chinese vehicles when mechanics will simply refuse to work on them beyond the most basic of maintenance work – if they last long enough for a pad change. Can you imagine what the parts network for obscure low volume models is like? Picture yourself as a mechanic and the customer rolls in with a 2 year old MiGoreng special. Every idiot light is flashing. You know they have bugger all to spend on it because it’s the third time and they just want it patched up. How long before you tell them “Please don’t bring it back”?

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Aaron, can relate to that when they call me up to fix a Hafco lathe and I tell them “you don’t fix paper cups, you don’t even wash them they are a disposable, lathe”

      • I agree, just Rubbish. So a complete waste of the carbon it took to make it, since most will end up in landfill. I can just imagine a lack of workshop manuals, poor Chinese to English translation if there is and lack of any dealer support.

        I wouldn’t look at it either.. 🤣

      • Pfh007.MEMBER

        What, a bit like Italian cars in the 1980s – 1990s?

        Beautiful but not very reliable.

    • this article is a stretch
      we import cars for $50bn and of that $3bn from china, they could disappear from the market and barely anyone would even notice

  2. After hearing Daniel Andrews reversing and delaying the easing of restrictions, this is a disaster for the VIC economy
    Small business closure
    No visitors
    No immigration
    The list goes on
    VIC economy (Melb) is about to go off a cliff
    In a few months once the current prospective property buyers dry up, there will be very minimal buyers around going forward
    We talk in theory about a property price crash in Australia but when it happens it’s very specific to certain areas
    Melbourne has been so overpriced relative to other great spots for a very long time

    If any from Melb could help me to find some new interests in Melb
    I used to go to the pub for a few drinks and a laugh, go to the footy, go out to restaurants (most will be closed)
    So if all sporting venues, restaurants cafes shopping plays theatre no spring carnival no Grand Prix no Tennis open etc
    What is there to do in Melb ?? Why would anyone come here, only 5 family members allowed to gather so extended family can’t visit
    Add in the no immigration and add in net net leaving VIC
    No international students
    No tourism
    Pencil in 50% price falls Melbounre property this time next year, Melb will be level with Brisbane prices in 12 months , this is guaranteed now. There is no valid argument against

    And you can’t make the statement Aust property prices will fall 40% because some great areas will do well

    Don’t even waste your time looking at any house price index

    Melbourne will be in full blown economic depression in H1 21
    I’d say if we look back on Melb 2021, it’ll be multiple times worse than 1930s

    Melbounre truly is facing Economic Armageddon

    • Didn’t see you posting in a while, got worried you might gone like [email protected] and c0ming .
      Hope all good with you.
      I’ll add to ur list the chance of hiking the interest rates

      • I’m fine
        Had.a relaxing week last week.
        I just feel I’m repeating myself, I’ve pretty much said everything
        Interest rates are going to rise similar to GFC when credit spreads blew out
        And really I honestly cannot believe that rising interest rates are being considered in analysts forecasts
        Ok say I’m wrong re 1980s interest rates 15 to 20% ok that’s extreme but we are in very extreme times
        Home loan interest rates will be double say 5% instead of 2.5% in 12 months
        I really cannot see how Australian banks will survive
        Before end of the year we will see merger restructuring nationalisation bailout/in
        There has to be a bail in to even the ledger there is no other way

        My extreme view is interest rates at 1980s level & there won’t be 4 big banks in 12 months. I personally think all 4 will collapse but maybe they will find a way to do something but what’s household debt $2 Trillion plus interest, being generous I’d say they’d be lucky to get 1/4 of that, $500 billion but I doubt even that much
        ***commercial RE, so many properties office retail etc you couldn’t give away and you’d be crazy to take it if someone offered you for free

        And also I’d say in 24 months and house prices are 50% lower in Melb we will be very lucky

        • All home owners with a mortgage to get a debt jubilee. Bank bailouts to be paid for with a rent levy.

          • I heard there is a secret plan to give support to mortgage holders by taking it from savers.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            That the same plan that’s been in progress the last 10+ years?

            Not really secret anymore…

          • Is this negative interest rates on deposits ?
            Idiots, people will just pull their savings out

          • Savers is a economic term for bond holders and not the sundry low class wage deposit mopes.

          • What if they can’t pull their savings out? Bank run? Or ban on cash transactions? For example. All your fiat js belong to us (reference to all your base is belong to us meme).

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            bcnich,Is this negative interest rates on deposits ?
            Idiots, people will just pull their savings out.

            One of the reasons why I’ve been harping on about cashless society for all these years, locking people into the banking system unable to withdraw.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          A UBI driven inflationary breakout would be rolled out before a total collapse is allowed to occur.
          $1000 dollars per week to every citizen over 18 should do the trick.
          We will just inflate away the debt and get that Debt to GDP Ratio down!

          Thats really the main reason the Boomers have all done so well.

          • EP
            Won’t make any difference
            It’ll just push up interest rates

            The Crash and Burn will happen first

          • I agree with EP, the solution is inflation. Interest rates only go up if the things they measure inflate. So far they do a good job avoiding measuring the important stuff.

          • Sorry to inform you but Volckers use of inflation was a direct attack on labour, largely due to it being politically unviable to tax the overheated economy away due to the anti tax breathers – own goal. Since then this has been the go too tool to cram down labour whilst the financial elites consolidate their wealth and power.

            Hence why you have all the decades of IR monetarist machinations whilst congress sits on its hands and looks at the ceiling.

          • Divya
            Did you get my gold response ???
            I just sent you a long answer to clear up you Q

        • How exactly will this rate rise happen? The RBA won’t be raising, they are already doing yield curve control and “asset purchases”. They could easily just start paying interest directly if that is required.

          Yes Australia is massively exposed to foreign debt, but I’m sure the recent Scomo batvirus investigation crusade was backstopped by a “Committed Lending Facility”, but for Aussie corporates to access that nice juicy USD funding.

          I’d say negative nominal rates are more likely than any rises. We went through the Rubicon a long time ago now.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’m so glad I live in Sydney. It is clearly a far superior city than Melbourne and will extra boom if Melbourne doesn’t as much. Good times ahead without any doubt. Just like normal. Change brand of tea leaves brah. Tetley really are tasty.

        • I think perhaps bcnich you might be referring to Greater Sydney whereas ruesa is obviously talking about everything east of Anzac Parade, you know, the real Sydney.

          • Lived for a few years in Syd
            Neutral Bay & Rushcutters bay
            Don’t really know many of the other locations

            There have been many years when Syd property was really down
            Those few years after Olympics… I remember

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I’m so glad I live in Geelong!

        Once Melbourne descends back into the primordial sludge from which it arose (which I understand was somewhere near Albert Park) Geelong will be the natural capital of the state, and possibly if Sydney descends into its primordial sludge (which I believe is out near Newington – although a mate up there did tell me they had moved all their primordial sludge to Ivanhoe where they top dress paddocks with it and bake it into tiles), Canberra descends into its primordial sludge (out near Pialligo) and all the other State capitals descend into their primordial sludges, Geelong could even be the natural capital of Australia, or maybe (thinking big and noting we are doing an FTA with Boris and the UK) maybe even a revived British Empire.

        Things are really looking up here! The local real estate boys tell me demand has never eased back for Geetroit real estate – and a recent drive to Melbourne indicated people living at Pt Cook living so close to the Freeway that they could lean out of bed and adjust the fuel-oil mix and timing of the cars going nowhere during the peak hours – so demand is expected to remain big! Only yesterday I went and pilfered some timber to burn in my wood heater from a newly arrived Chinese doctor who has set up in Highton and bought an investment property in Belmont, and is already renting it to a fellow Chinese lady and who wanted to be rid of that ugly yellow box and replace it with a goji berry plant installation. They are spreading the message!

        Geetroit Geetroit Geetroit!

        • Failed Baby BoomerMEMBER

          Gunna, I like Geelong but I wonder what jobs people do there.
          The university seems to be scaling down and the motor industry is long gone, yet property just bubbles along.
          I guess there must be some that work in Melbourne.
          What is your take on the job structure?

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            dog walking, wellness and spa activities, childrens adventure activities, spruiking real estate, low level public service positions

            the usual things

        • Good on you for grabbing that yellow box… no, not that one, the other one. 😜

          That stuff is magic! Minimal ash and smoke, good heat and long burning. Brilliant!

      • DingwallMEMBER

        I am so glad I live in neither. Even a visit to either city is not even on the radar. Sydney is ugly and Melbourne is moving towards that model too. Just trying to jam in people as quickly as possible means a sh!theap.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      A valuer advised me on Friday that new work through the ValEx system has fallen off a cliff this month. That to me is a very scary stat as these enquires are for standard Resi housing. Commercial valuations died in February.

      • I have been trying to tell all the young concreters I know that it won’t last. This economy is running on the fumes from construction contracts signed last year. Nobody is going to buy the stuff being built now, hence little future building needed.

        Infrastructure doesn’t come with many jobs, but political party donors will be pushing this line. 100,000 public housing units needed at a minimum which would keep them going for a year, but that would be redistribution and we can’t have that.

      • Penske
        Hardly anyone cares nor is interested in buying a property
        They are about share price if split it and after pay
        Wouldn’t be surprised if they are buying amazon and apple shares on Nasdaq too
        First home buyers, investors , overseas buyers, upgraders virtually all gone now
        You wait 6 months and as interest rates rise, buyers will be nonexistent
        Prices won’t go down slowly this time

        • Sounds good, in 12 months I’ll buy an investment property and that’s when this real estate bubble will really die for 50 years, just like in the 1850s Melbourne. Haha.

    • Hi bcnich. I’ve never seen so many for lease signs throughout bayside Melbourne. Often there are multiple for lease signs outside a single apartment building. Many auction boards as well. Rental prices have also dropped 50-100 dollars per week over the past month. Trust me I have been watching. I’m not sure about other areas and would. E interested to hear from others. This latest development is another nail you are right. The crash has begun.

      • P
        Rents are imploding everywhere in Melb
        My GF follows RE.Com and watches the rents falling on places around SE
        Empty places everywhere sitting on market much longer
        And as prices fall investors will demand I higher yield which puts even more pressure down on prices
        This is going to unwind like it went up but much quicker
        The fall is always much quicker
        You wait until Q1 2021

    • Don’t get caught up in the Euphoria
      ASX is going down 50% with property over the next year
      A few newbies are getting lucky on line, they’ll get their lesson like every one gets first time
      They’ll get greedy and won’t get out in time
      This is all going to end in tears

      It’s all borrowed money.

      John Adams will be proven correct, I can’t believe he has thrown the towel in.

      • I’ve read a few articles saying how retail, Mum & Dad investors have out performed professionals by buying the dip. That they were buying rather than selling when others were scared breaking the narrative that they aren’t savvy. Loading up on Qantas and Flight Centre, that this was a smart thing to do. Surely picking the bottom during a crisis of this magnitude this early in the turn in cycle is not smart but plain stupid and will be demonstrated as such?

        • Most professionals underperform too
          Most aren’t much smarter than mum and dad investors

          • Yep 100% my Irish pension has grown 20% in 7 years. That’s what 2.8% P/year. Woopie.. and that’s a professional. So I only just beat inflation. (I only just managed to find where it was, having ignored it for 7 years). If I put that money in the NASDAQ index for the past 7 years it would have returned 7% a year.

            So I agree the pros are pretty lousy…

          • Gav
            I think you have to be in a HEDGE FUND.
            I can’t see the purpose in long only fund
            I run myself that way
            I don’t know how you can be ahead without running long and short as well as other strategies

          • I am GrootMEMBER

            @bcnich. Those sort of hedge funds are good in theory, but are rarely available to non wholesale/sophisticated investors. So once again it is us retail investor suckers who get cleaned out.

          • @Groot
            It’s ok for years like the run up from 5500 to 7200
            But to me it was clear selling but really what did they do 20% cash above 7,000
            Then wiped out in 1 month
            It’s very hard without the opportunity and I’m not sure why these Aussie super funds run long short funds (don’t run)
            Just get a few gun ex traders in, i really don’t understand why they don’t have that option

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        John has not thrown in the towel, rather thinks govt and central banks will throw the kitchen sink and kick this a bit further away. He’s still fighting the good fight

        • But he has the timing wrong
          It’s started and most of the crash will be done in 18 months
          He’s saying 2022
          No chance
          His prediction will be correct and it’s already well under way
          FED RBA GOV STIMULUS won’t stop the deleveraging
          It’s way way too powerful
          The whole world is virtually shut
          Australia’s house hold debt deleveraging will be min $500 BILLION (1/3 GDP) still puts us at 90% or so GDP and take into acc GDP contraction 10% or more that leaves us at 100% GDP, I’m being conservative
          No one has the firepower to stop this
          It won’t touch the sides

      • I won’t believe in any crash until I see Steve Keen walking backwards down the mountain (holding hands with Peachy).

        • Bolst
          You know I’ll never throw in the towel
          I’ve kept my convictions all the way through
          Not 18 months
          Zero months
          18 months of capitulation from now

    • An unregulated digital product that offers credit without credit checks is expected to boom? Clearly, it’s bulletproof when unemployment reaches double digits and other forms of credit are tapped out. They are being priced in user growth, can’t imagine loss provisions won’t grow and burn these businesses eventually….

  3. “Professor Goldstone is a leading authority on the study of revolutions and long-term social change at George Mason University. The model developed by him and Peter Turchin tracks such data as the ratio of median workers’ wages to GDP per capita, life expectancy, average heights, and the number of new millionaires. It also measures political polarisation or the degree of overlap between the parties.

    Applied to US history, it ‘predicts’ the 1861 Civil War and the unrest of the 1930s — a time of Jim Crow segregation, Gilded Age inequality, and fascism.

    Ten years ago, Professor Turchin pointed his model towards the future, and made an uncannily accurate prediction. Just like in the 1850s, crisis indicators were rising, he wrote in the journal Nature. They could be a reliable indicator of looming instability and “look set to peak in the years around 2020,” he wrote.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/model-predicting-united-states-disorder-now-points-to-civil-war/12365280

    Why is it likely to be true? Because The Onion happens to agree with it.

    https://www.theonion.com/report-this-a-goddamn-walk-in-the-park-compared-to-wha-1844072501

    • AUST won’t be immune
      Once AUSTRALIANS realise they’ve been fed this property.doubles every 7 years lie they are going to be very angry
      This also why people will leave the big cities for smaller quite locations

      • I’ve spent the weekend looking at South Gippy on re.com. It’s not quite far enough from Melbourne for my taste but Tassie is out until travel between the mainland is easier (got aging parents on the MP). However when you start looking at projected sea level rises, most of South Gippsland disappears under a 20m rise. It’d still be smoked out in another Black Summer but wouldn’t have as high a fire risk as a lot of the rest of the state.

        I swear, you just can’t win. Can’t stomach the idea of being west of the GDR, too hot and dry.

        • Last I heard Tasmania was being flooded by Chinese and the govt was delighted by the huge rise in Airbnb tourists and couldn’t figure out why poorer (white) Tasmanians were having to live in tents in the showground.
          Does anyone know if the poor have moved out of those tents back into the empty Airbnb’s?

          • I don’t know about that but Tassie appears to be massively overpriced atm. Some parts of Vic are looking extremely reasonable in comparison

          • Thanks for the encouragement! I’m slowly starting to feel a plan formulating and deciding what I can and can’t compromise on. The big issue will most likely be whether or not I can get a mortgage, and will it be enough

      • Jumping jack flash

        “…property.doubles every 7 years lie they are going to be very angry”

        This is very interesting. Besides the fact that it cannot be true and median prices cannot reach 10mil in Sydney by 2050 while everyone is flat out putting every spare cent into obtaining or servicing the correct amounts of debt to make it happen, I had dinner with an old mate of mine from school. He bought 7 years ago in a reasonably respectable spot here in Brissy. I asked him about his mortgage and he said in 7 years he’d paid something like 1/4 of his mortgage. Not too shabby, but thats a fairly standard achievement. But the most interesting thing was that he said it had gone up 15%! Just 15% in 7 years.

        He wasnt even mad. Maybe not everyone is aware of the ideal rate of debt expansion. But doubling is certainly not the case and can never be a sustained thing.

        Maybe it happens one or twice after spending 50% of the value of the original purchase on renos or something.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Fearful coward fckers are calling for masks to be made compulsory. Oh fck off! How about you isolate yourself from me you yella bellied pr1cks. I ain’t wearing a mask. They are gawd awful ugly and my handles don’t fit under them anyway!

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    When are Victorians going to stand up and fight their totalitarian state puppet regime?

    • Reusa
      I’m leaving Melb
      On the way to GC
      Can I stay with you on the way through ????

      • Bcnich if you need help fixing the soup van, I can offer my services (mechanical).

        Got my friends Prelude running like a dream.
        https://youtu.be/1VF1RXx1Ctw
        Hasn’t been on the road for 11 odd years. Finally woke her up. He’s been driving it around after putting new tyres on it.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          No way you would have had a grin from ear to ear like that, fixing computer problems. Your calling beckons, car flipping.

          • My friend is gonna list it for sale, so we shall see if we make any money flipping it. Problem is my business partner is sentimental about it and wants to keep fixing things, but I fear he will over capitilise on it and we won’t make money… If he can’t get the money we want for it, I think we should just keep it. I suspect in 10 years prices will be much higher for an example like this.

            Already driving it around the backstreets of his neighbourhood, lots of heads turn including younger school boys who probably want their first car.

            But also 35+ year old milfs seem into them! Haha.

        • Gav
          I don’t think we need to soup van
          The government will just keep giving people money to buy take away
          I guess after all this time, I shouldn’t be surprised to see RBA FED GOV to just keep printing borrowing etc
          What I do know is you can’t stop the business cycle, who knows when that will be

  6. Anyone else’s ears prick up on the use of the term “large families” by the Victorian Premier to describe the irresponsible folks responsible for the spike in Covid19 infections? Is this a euphemism for one or more of our multicultural elements?

    It occurred to me that we haven’t seen a breakdown of infections in the country by background. And it makes me wonder what the government and health authorities are seeing in the data. If there were to be a problem in one particular part of the community, how would they call it out without stigmatising the group (which would of course be their primary concern, not protecting the community).

    • Covid is really not much worse than flu
      Isolate 75 and 65 to 75 limit where you go

      Let the workforce open up get on with it and build up immunity

      Just get everything going again

      This really all BS, it’s being used by politicians for advantage and media are making a fortune

      We will never go back to normal

      Suicide, depression mental health domestic violonce, food starvation malnutrition from poverty….

      If you live in a south eg you will have to go north to escape

      There is going to be a mass exodus from Melb

      Adelaiders WAers will go hime, indians out west will do a runners

      Melb shortages of property, who is writing this tripe

      They’d have to be blind morons

      • Bcnich, with respect, what has any of that got to do with my post? Please start your own #justtheflu thread next time.

        • I must have misinterpreted what you were saying,
          I’m actually concerned about getting a cold so I’m certainly not wanting to say it’s not a problem
          I just feel there will be a lot more problems that will be worse
          It’s all good….
          I’m going to have yum cha while they are still in business

        • BigDuke6MEMBER

          csfn
          I’d say he was trying to drag “your thread” out of its underhand, beating about the bush, r$cism which many seem to think clever around here.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      If there were to be a problem in one particular part of the community, how would they call it out without stigmatising the group

      by suburb should do it?

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        By Street, and if there are any serious issues they should be adding an additional levy to all inhabitants of that street, which would pay for works to mitigate the need to live near that street for residents of nearby streets

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Actually I heard him say it (or read it) and did idly wonder what he meant. I had searched it yesterday when mig said he wanted to go on a pub crawl.

    • Melbourne is the second biggest Greek city in the world … luckily the Greeks strongly prefer small nuclear family groups … then there’s the Italians …. and the Irish … and the … actually not sure what you can glean from the statement about large extended family groups (if only everyone was more like the 57 shut-ins the world would be a better place).

  7. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    “Wave unleashed by Black Lives Matter may yet overtake Scott Morrison – Ninefax, Megalogenis…George doesn’t like Poms…”

    That is because at his core, Megalogenis is a nasty little Greek racist who holds a grudge against anyone with skin tones slightly lighter than his, as revenge for all those times he got called ‘wog’ when he went to high school in Melbourne.

    Megalogenis mistakenly thinks that all those magnificent ruins that he saw in Greece when he followed his mummy over there for Aunty Tuila’s wedding after the HSC, were built by his ancestors. The reality is they were built by people who looked more like the Poms than anyone in his family ever will.

    Megalogenis and his relatives are simply Arabs masquerading as Europeans, inhabiting the ruins of a nation built by people long since displaced. Which gives some indication to why he is so keen to see colonial descended Australians replaced too.

    • BigDuke6MEMBER

      Are you not intrigued what’s going to happen when/if folks find out who really ran the slave trade? The activist band Public Enemy found out and got cut by their label. Worth a look.

      • I saw a couple of YouTube post from Professor Griff years ago, he is very well informed indeed.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        I think they’ll be more intrigued when they mind out where the white hatred originates from.

        Take the Guardian article and the so called research it cited from the “Institute for Policy Studies (IPS).” The Study is notionally about Billionaires, but the way they’ve framed the narrative is outright racist:

        “ The report is called: Wh!te Supr3macy as Pre-existing Condition: Eight Solutions to Ensure Economic Recovery Reduces the Racial Wealth Divide.”

        https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/19/coronavirus-pandemic-billioinaires-racial-wealth-gap

        Most people never take the next step to see who founds these “institutes”.

        Google them and check out the bio’s and photos for the founders of the Institute for Policy Studies:

        Marcus Raskin and Richard Barnet

        That will tell you more than you need to know – these anti-wh!te intellectuals are mainly by one tribe of people. A people who’ve turned grievance into an art form and magic injustice into being to act as their swords and shields.

        • BigDuke6MEMBER

          It’s artistry all right.
          With a media, banking and political arm.
          If you like the guardian 🙂 then google their outraged review of Harry Truman’s biography from July 2003. It’s all there to see in the open.

  8. GunnamattaMEMBER

    for those who missed it in the other post………

    Gitto gropes around for the limitations of NeoLiberalism and finds the present floppy and sensitive

    Gitto is often a good read, and in recent years I have sensed that maybe the venerable economics hack from the SMH has gone through a sort of reappraisal of much which had written in days gone by.

    Todays offering, although Gitto probably wouldn’t see it as such, bumps into the limitations of economic model which has dominated the lives of most of us, and which Gitto has been a fairly influential supporter of. That model has been Australia’s NeoLiberal experience which roughly dates from the early 1980s.

    Back then it was a young John Winston Howard, in his then role as Treasurer for Malcolm Fraser (who didn’t particularly like either his Treasurer or the NeoLiberal model – which may explain why Australians younger than about 40 often tend to assume Fraser was a reforming progressive, if not a socialist), and then was picked up by both RJ Hawke and PJ Keating in the wake of the failed mining boom which spelled the end of Fraser amidst double digit inflation and unemployment.

    Using that model Hawke and Keating could lay claim to having used it to good effect, having liberalised Australian capital and labour markets and crafted an era when the words ‘microeconomic reform’ really did roll off a nations tongue. Superannuation, a more robust export competitive manufacturing sector, and a general awareness that Australians had to, if they wanted to live a first world quality of life, earn their way in an often unforgiving global marketplace, were the fruits of that government. What many Australians will remember it for however, is the acrimony of many of the players, and the long slow employment recovery as Australia came out of the ‘Recession we had to have’ in the early 90s.

    That employment recovery didn’t come fast enough to save Keating’s bacon, with the 1996 election ushering back the John Howard version of NeoLiberalism, with him as PM, and setting the tone for Australian economic policy ever since.

    Union involvement was out, and superannuation morphed from a plan to get Australian PAYE taxpayers catering for their own retirements, to a tool to enable tax evasion and speculation in real estate by the more affluent. Howard picked up on a sense of reform fatigue and touted his desire for a ‘relaxed and comfortable Australia’. The call was heard by a generation of babyboomers who thought themselves entitled to spend, having done the hard yards during the Keating recession. Gone were the days of ‘microeconomic reform’ and ‘competition’ rolling off the tongues of politicians anywhere. In came a GST and Capital Gains Tax concessions which happened to make Australian Negative Gearing far more propitious for those desiring a touch of real estate speculation. Out went heavily regulated vocational and tertiary education, and in came ‘private providers’ of the same.

    In the post 2000 world, with a rising China starting to buy staggering volumes of Australian resources, the word ‘windfall’ started to pass the lips of economists as Howard’s government dawned to the possibility of an ideological prize like no other. Australia didn’t need any competitive business whatsoever if it had endless rivers of iron ore coal and gas providing resources royalties. More importantly for their ideology they could undermine the heavily unionised manufacturing sector, simply by strangling the capital investment around which it had historically grown. If companies found the investment in new or rejuvenating Australian plant not worth the effort, then the jobs would disappear and the Unions with them.

    That enticing possibility fit nicely with an Australian dollar which had rebounded strongly from the early 2000s on the back of those resources royalties, and the vast inflows sourced from global capital markets by banks who were lending almost solely for housing, which nailed the AUD to the roof. At the same time the words ‘wages outbreak’ were headed off the agenda by calls to increase immigration volumes, which Australia did massively from 2005. The revenue windfalls were channelled into babyboomer welfare in the form of tax offsets for early retirement, housing speculation, and an increasingly financialised and ticket clipping superannuation system.

    On top of that both the Howard government and the ALP euthanized the exporting or import competing impetus with a pillow of ‘Free Trade Agreements’ which explicitly sacrificed anything import competing done by Australians in favour of access for resources and farming products. Australians didn’t need to compete with their own endeavours any more, they just needed to sell off more of their bequest, go further into debt, and make sure there was more of them. The new jobs being created were in ‘services’ which were solely reliant in either more people coming to Australia or Australians spending more, and, as lending criteria were loosened, more people going further into debt.

    That mindset was cemented in after the departure of Howard, with the ALP Rudd government which arrived in 2007 almost immediately engulfed by the GFC, meaning it was no time to question the economic narrative. Rudd’s government sent the net Overseas Migration beyond 300 thousand, doubled down on housing speculation, and fertilised the by then corrupted vocational and tertiary education sectors, which didn’t so much facilitate the educational aspirations of Australians or wannabe Australians, as preyed upon them for a revenue stream. Gillard came and went without ever laying a glove on the economic narrative she had been bequeathed, mired in NBN, climate and carbon pricing, and the NDIS – all branches of the economic narrative without ever being central to the economic competitiveness of Australians. After her, it was Abbott, Turnbull and now Morrison – all still toying with versions of the Howard economic narrative bequest, all still wedded to more people or more debt, or more resources windfall, for all of whom the concept of economic competitiveness was anathema.

    And here in 2020 we have Gitto, who has been part of this evolution from the office of the SMH in Sydney over the entire period, noting that our growth options are nil. Let’s see where he takes us.


    Recovery from recession won’t get us out of the low-growth trap

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/recovery-from-recession-won-t-get-us-out-of-the-low-growth-trap-20200619-p5544o.html
    June 19, 2020 — 11.16am
    Ross Gittins
    Economics Editor

    The most useful insights in economics are deceptively simple. The most widely relevant is the idea of “opportunity cost” – whatever you choose to do costs you the opportunity to do something else – but the most useful after that is probably the notion of supply and demand. This can tell us much about why we’re in recession and how we recover from it.

    The discipline of “micro-economics” tells us that a market consists of firms willing to supply a particular good or service and customers interested in buying (demanding) that good or service. If the two sides can agree on the price of the item, a sale is made. It’s the relative willingness of the supplier and the demander that determines the price.

    A little bit of basics from Gitto here. The thing to remember is that a nation of people who have spent a generation focussing on living in a debt or population Ponzi fuelled bubble, will find the very concept of economic competitiveness hard to grasp, and will likely ask ‘why?’ when made aware of the possibility that they could have done something else. And that ‘why?’ is underpinned by the mindset ‘we are all right, and what we have is fine, and if anyone wants something else then that is their issue’. Australia’s basic issue here is that the people with this mindset are predominantly

    1. Older than late 50
    2. The more affluent
    3. Those whom the status quo (as it has been for a generation) serves their interests

    These are balanced, if not yet outnumbered by

    1. Those working in precarious employment or not working
    2. Those not experiencing salary increases
    3. Those in significant debt
    4. Those who do not believe that their labours are providing a better opportunity to their children

    Gitto’s other point about the ‘relative’ willingness of suppliers and consumers in setting price is well understood by the generation of Australians who have long ceased to ask whether the volume of debt they are taking on is in their best interests, and replaced it with ‘how much can I borrow?’ for suppliers (eg of housing) to determine ‘they are willing, and that’s the price!’

    The discipline of “macro-economics” takes all the markets that make up a market economy like ours and studies the relative strengths of “aggregate” (total) supply and “aggregate” demand. When aggregate demand is growing more strongly than aggregate supply, this puts upward pressure on prices, causing inflation.

    Thanks Gitto – the population Ponzi Australia has been running since late 2005 has its genesis with this very point. They equal more aggregate demand and lend themselves to prices going up, while at the same time often having the net effect of providing that bit of additional competition (and income suppression) in the labour market.

    When the growth in aggregate demand is weaker than the growth in aggregate supply, this means firms have idle capacity to produce goods and services and some of the workers who want to help in the production process will be unemployed.

    Your typical recession involves a boom in which demand outstrips supply and the rate of inflation is high, but unemployment is low. The managers of the economy use higher interest rates and cuts in government spending or tax increases to try to slow the growth of demand and thus reduce inflation. But they end up overdoing it and the boom turns to bust. Demand falls back, so the inflation rate falls, but unemployment shoots up.

    Gitto comes to the key point in Australia’s economic conundrum here. It has, post COVID 19, weak population growth, it has weak demand for debt, it has weak ability to sustain more debt (or indeed the debt it already has on the slate), weak demand for the remaining things it does do (and which it has been stripped back to by a generation of NeoLiberalism) and it has – courtesy of a generation of NeoLiberal economics about the worst competitive position of almost any developed economy on the planet. When Gitto talks about ‘Your typical recession’ he is talking about recessionary experiences of the past where Australia has boosted its competitiveness and either exported its way out, or it has imported competed its way back into some semblance of economic plausibility. A very large number of Australians are increasingly asking about how it is going to work its way back this time, and not being all that comfortable with what they see before them.

    But that doesn’t describe this recession. There was no preceding boom. The growth in demand hadn’t been strong enough to take up all the growth in firms’ “potential” to supply goods and services – which the econocrats estimate was growing by 2.75 per cent a year – meaning the inflation rate’s been lower than their target of 2 to 3 per cent a year, while the rate of unemployment’s been higher than their target of about 4.5 per cent.

    It may not describe this recession, but if one looks at Australia’s ’30 years without a recession’ you could plausibly ask if the whole era has been one giant ‘boom’ where demand has been growing (courtesy of the population Ponzi and debt) but that demand has increasingly been supplied from offshore – without involving Australians in any meaningful production process – and where the Australian production capacity has been obliterated by NeoLiberal economic policy to leave an awful lot of Australians working in ‘bullshit jobs’ of the sort funded either directly or indirectly by government using resources revenues which are now increasingly looking dead. If we go back to those Free Trade Agreements now an awful lot of them look like a weight upon any meaningful (real job creating) investment, while offering a load of hot air (bullshit job creating) opportunity, in exchange for access for Australian commodities to offshore markets – where those commodities are sent offshore by companies which avoid paying tax here, which are almost always foreign controlled, and looking to make as minimal use of Australian employees as possible. Gitto’s point about 2.75%growth and 2-3% inflation bears out the ‘faux’ growth we have experienced for plausibly a decade or more.

    So, with no boom and no jamming on of the brakes, why are we in recession? Because the sudden arrival of the coronavirus and the need to stop it spreading and killing many people obliged the government to do something that would normally be unthinkable: order the closure of non-essential industries and order all of us the stay in our homes and leave them as little as possible.

    The COVID19 experience means that a nation which has been parading around as one of the world’s best managed economies for a generation or more, and has shrugged off all suggestions it was running nothing more than a population Ponzi back debt fuelled speculation bubble off a resources ticket clip, is now seen as an economic policy in the nude. Explaining that to Australians has been increasingly difficult for a decade or more – hence the increasingly fractured politics – and is now no longer remotely plausible.

    Economic policy from here requires a bit of truth about where we are, what we currently have, and how we have got here, as well as a longer term focus on industries, investment and jobs which will see future Australians better off. The issue for the beneficiaries of the NeoLiberal status quo is that they may lose out, relative to the punterariat. The long touted threats that economic restructuring and a focus on competitiveness will cost jobs and social pain, while still certainly true, is no longer so daunting for a society all of a sudden finding that lots of people are now unemployed, and that lots of the paragons of small business are now as dependent on government handouts as the dole queue.

    The management of the macro economy is intended to be “counter-cyclical” – to smooth the economy’s path through the ups and downs of the business cycle by slowing demand when it’s too strong and boosting it when it’s too weak.

    Those newly jobkeepered Australians may, in their now ample free time, find themselves wondering if much of Australia’s economic setting for a generation (particularly the immigration intake), has been all about stimulus and the fudging of economic data, whether it was needed or not – mainly as a means to boost the returns to the sections of the business world (lets start with real estate, the large retailers, banks and telcos for starters) without any noticeable cost except additional punters on roads, stations and in healthcare waiting lists . And a decades worth of negative real wage growth still hanst triggered any meaningful debate about either more stimulus within the existing NeoLiberal model, or revisiting the model.

    So, obviously, the task now the virus has been suppressed and we can end most of the lockdown (but not yet open our borders to foreign travellers) is to “stimulate” the economy to get demand growing more strongly than supply is growing and start reducing unemployment. (Supply increases because of growth in the population, more people participating in production, and business investment to improve the productivity of the production process.)

    The authorities usually stimulate demand with big cuts in interest rates (known as monetary policy) and by increasing government spending or cutting taxes (fiscal policy). Trouble is, this time interest rates are already as low as they can go, meaning virtually all the stimulus will have to come from fiscal policy – the budget.

    Gitto is right that stimulus is needed, and that it will be coming via the taxpayer. But he doesn’t actually touch the idea that the biggest driver of growth over the era from 1980 onwards in Australia was actually the structural reform of the Hawke and Keating ALP governments, and that it may well be time to look at the structural basis of the Australian economy again after 25 years of ‘relaxed and comfortable’.

    This standard approach assumes the imbalance between demand and supply is essentially “cyclical” – caused by short-term factors. But we shouldn’t forget that, before the virus arrived out of the blue, we were struggling to explain why, at least since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago, economic growth had been much weaker than we’d been used to.

    This was true in Australia where, except for a year or two, the growth in real gross domestic product – our production of goods and services – had fallen well short of our potential growth rate of 2.75 per cent a year. But it was just as true of most other advanced economies.

    The fact that this weak growth had gone on for most of a decade, and applied to so many countries, was a pretty clear sign the imbalance between supply and demand wasn’t just cyclical – short-term – but was “structural”: long-lasting.

    Onya Gitto! He isn’t out calling for wholesale economic reform yet, but he is certainly facing in that direction. Per Capita economic growth in Australia has been feeble for more than a decade – and has been papered over with population growth and housing speculation. While every other developed economy has experienced something similar in the post GFC era, every other developed economy missed out on the China resources spend Australia benefited from.

    The symptoms of weakness included weak growth in wages, consumer spending and business investment, without much improvement in the productivity (efficiency) of our production process. Because the old word for structural was “secular”, economists called this phenomenon “secular stagnation”. But Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England, prefers to say we’re caught in a “low-growth trap”.

    Why are we caught in a protracted period of weak growth? Because aggregate demand has gone for a decade failing to keep up with the growth in aggregate supply – our potential (but not our reality) to produce goods and services.

    The evidence that demand isn’t keeping up with supply is unusually low inflation and low growth in real wages. Also the weak rate of improvement productivity – although this also means supply isn’t growing as strongly as it used to, either.

    But the ultimate evidence of secular stagnation is that interest rates have been so close to zero for so long. Interest rates are just another price. Why are they so low? Because the supply of money savers are making available to be borrowed exceeds the demand for those funds by people wanting to invest.

    The biggest symptom of the weakness is the lived experience of most Australians for the last decade or so. No wage growth, increased prices (regardless of the inflation data) for things they do need like housing, energy, education or healthcare, more crowds in more places, and the increasingly prevalent sense that we are mired in a world of corrupt and incompetent politicians, self serving business ‘elites’ and that nobody is listening to the punter on the street. That coupled with the monetary easing (in Australia but also globally) inflating asset prices has made a mockery of the late stage NeoLiberal economic policy experience for all Australians.

    The debate over the possible reasons why aggregate demand is chronically falling short of aggregate supply is a fascinating subject for another day. What’s clear is that recovering from this cyclical recession won’t eliminate our pre-existing structural weakness.
    It’s equally clear, however, that if the Morrison government isn’t prepared to use its budget to stimulate demand sufficiently, we won’t even achieve much of a recovery from the recession.

    Gitto is saving that discussion on why aggregate demand is shorty aggregate supply for another day, because he doesn’t want to touch on bank lending policies (spurring demand with credit) or immigration (spurring demand with bums on seats) or Australian politicians habit of signing FTAs without letting the electorate in on what they are signing up to. But he is 100% spot on the structural weakness of Australia’s economy needing some serious address rather than a sugar hit. It needs something lurking in dark recesses where the hard core tory doesnt like to look. Things like real data, industry policy and economic accountability – he hasnt said it, but one suspects he thinks the ScoMo Liberals wont go there.

    And I do find myself (though Gitto wouldn’t go that far) wondering if the government with its hands on the economic policy levers is looking only for enough of a sugar hit to tide it over for an election.

    Either way he is saying we are in for a rough ride. Grab the popcorn.

    • Thanks Gunna.
      For my 2 pence worth I’d only add that there is no product demand change possible within the Australian economy that can’t be easily met (or exceeded) using existing global production capacity. With this in mind there will be no counter-cyclical investment in Australia’s manufacturing capacity, nor will there be any investment in upskilling our human capital, nor for that matter will there be investment in startup enterprises (chasing whatever dream). The bottom line is that we have global excess capacity in all these areas and this global excess capacity will need to be exhausted before anyone is even remotely interested in developing Australian industry.
      Maybe we could jump start things if we were willing to reopen some 1960’s era textbooks on Industrial Policy, but I’m certain the majority of Aussies are unwilling to go down this path and interestingly from my experience our young are the least interested.
      I’m not at all sure where this leaves us. I’d like to believe that young highly educated and skilled Australian’s will leverage their strengths to create their own opportunities. I’d like to believe that they don’t need my rehashed 1960’s era industrial Policy to help them craft a living in the second quarter of the 21st century. but to be honest I just don’t see any other path forward. Maybe we just need to wait a decade or two and let our exchange rate do the heavy lifting, sounds good, but where will all our experienced grey beards be in a decade or two, one thing is certain they won’t be taking up their tools to help reshape a re-Industrialized Australia.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Completely agree with your mains points there old coq,

        I believe the words

        Industry Policy should be

        1. carved in stone on a plinth at the entrance to Parliament House
        2. seared into the foreheads of every member of parliament and ever public servant about the grade of Assistant Secretary
        3. Incorporated into the startup of any windows Apple Linux or whatever platform
        4. Made part of the acknowledgement of traditional ownership spiel
        5. Be mandatory for all media carrying advertising to provide every third advertisement for the purpose of exhorting
        6. Get a positive mention from his Holiness the Pope in a Sunday Vatican Mass

        • SweeperMEMBER

          so why did Keating reduce the average effective rate of assistance to manufacturing from about 23% in 1983 to about 6% when the country rejected his de-industrialisation agenda?

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            We are probably never going to agree on Keating old coq.

            While I too think he has lost his marbles I think bracketing him with Howard is a bit unfair. He came to the Treasurers chair in 1983 to look over what he described as ‘an industrial museum’ (indeed one which Howard had been Treasurer over for the preceding few years). The world in 1983 was radically different to that of 1996, and I assume I dont need to tell you this thing called GATT was ultimately agreed between an awfully large number of nations in that period, which reduced particularly manufacturing protections of the developed world – indeed the end of the Uruguay Round brought average industry protections of the developed world to 5%.

            The key difference between Keating/Hawke and Howard was that the ALP gents were focussed on making whatever there was of Australian manufacturing more competitive, whereas JWH was overtly about euthanizing it (accurately identifying that Unions and their members tended to be concentrated around major fixed capital investments, and coming to the conclusion that strangling the investment meant strangling the Unions). Both were successful in their aims. Australian manufacturing was quite competitive in the late 1990s and plausibly all the way up to the point where JWH decided the AUD needed to be stronger to head off the risk of an inflationary surge in the wake of the nascent resources investment boom of the early 2000s. Not long after that much of the investment in manufacturing that Hawke Keating had encouraged was very very dated and the decision for manufacturers was whether to renew the investment or not – they were looking at a small market with very high land and energy costs and a body politic (the ALP having walked away from going into bat for Industry) by that stage essentially hostile to them.

            Then one day in 2013 Joe Hockey went into parliament for a foaming mouthed rant about carmakers and support – of the type he never did go into about supports for (inter alia) housing speculation – Detroit was actually on the line to Melbourne at the time in the case of GMH, and they pulled the pin pretty much then and there. The message is still the same for Australian manufacturing and anything import competing and exporting.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It all comes down to tax policy. When the PPR has untaxed capital gain, and the owners of a successful cash positive STEM business get taxed 46% capital gains (without Byzantine company structures) on the company’s sale, the basic settings of the economy are wrong.
        It’s so fkn wrong. (Not that I’m bitter.)

        • Tax policy is definitely an area that could use some major updating but to be honest nobody develops a product or forgoes growing a company because they’ll have to pay more tax. Sure they have a right to feel cheated that their chosen path to wealth wasn’t tax-free. But I don’t believe that this really shapes their decisions today, it’s a more retrospective analysis, along the lines of, I would have been much better off just buying some damn real estate.
          It is so sad that this is the lived experience of so many Aussies and in that sense our Tax policies need to be changed if for no other reason then to change this mindset.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Tax policy drives a lot of business decisions, especially if you are going to invest significant capital. Any venture capital is going to look at the regulatory framework of the state and country a company is set up in.
            At the moment, it would better to set up a company in Delaware, USA or Ireland, and have the Australian venture be a wholly owned subsidiary. It’s curious for a Sydney based company that Atlassian Jira bills in US dollars.

            [Edit: In a 2014 restructuring, the parent company became Atlassian Corporation PLC of the UK, with a registered address in London—though the actual headquarters remained in Sydney.]

            I think Malcolm Turnbull tried to adjust the settings, but his efforts were around venture capital, rather than small innovative companies. When Peter Thiel (PayPal, Facebook) was asked what sort of company he would have started if he was based in Australia, Real Estate Development was his answer.

          • The Atlassian case kind of makes my point.
            The company was formed, the company grew through the difficult startup period despite our silly tax policies.
            As the company grew larger they took logical steps to minimize the impact our retarded tax policy had on their business growth and value. The very fact that this is happening should put every Politician and tax official in Australia on notice that our tax policies need updating, but this is Australia and dog help the Politician that is seen to go easy on corporate taxation.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            I’m going through the same math at the moment. Its depressing.
            You could add the google maps guys too. They are Danish, but we’re living in Sydney before they sold to Google.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      we must be watching a different movie because where you see some fundamental break from Keating to Howard, I see complete continuity with the only change being in the marketing (or what journalism calls the culture wars).

      • Keating was the Australian neoliberal spearhead. Thatcher, Reagan and Keating. All dismantling good features of their societies in the name of economics. Vile puppets doing the bidding of evil elites. Each one high on vanity and extremely low on brain power. At least the first two are now dead. Our one is busy sucking-up to the Chinese. A complete traitor to the Australian worker, with no redeeming feature.

    • Do we need reform, do we want reform, what do we reform – will all attempts be reduced to political preference which in turn stymies change. For many, the years you decribe were very good indeed which inherently habours resistance to change.

      Morrison’s best path forward at this moment is to provide just enough sugar to get reelected (and without being political surely Albo is unelectable) and then get on with the long path to at least re-establishing as much as possible sectors harmed by epidemiology estimates.

      Covid will stymie immigration but pressures to continue with our immigration program are significant and likely to override health concerns. We will probably learn to live with Covid and whilst minimsing wherever possible, accept casualties as inevitable.

      This ship ain’t for turning?

      • SweeperMEMBER

        well lets run the numbers.
        What journalism (Bramston, Megalogenis etc) accidently mistype as “reform” reduced the labour share of income by about 10% from 1983 to 1996.
        So stands to reason that people still advocating “reform” want a further 10% reduction in labour share of income to below half of the nations output.
        Yeah that seems to me clearly to be the best solution. What Australia needs to do is boost the relative return of finance, residential landlords, mining and monopoly industry. Lets keep “reforming”!

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        This ship ain’t for turning?

        Said the man in the lookout of the Titanic? For if this ship dont turn this ship is sunk anyway.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Good work Gunna …..poor old Gitto is coming to the end of his career …..so many words in print …..how much was he right ?…how much wrong ?…suspect his eye is on how he will look back on what he said and supported from under his blanket as he holds his mug of coco ….
      ….a miracle might happen and in his last few months and he goes the full Monty on the BS economy …now that would be popcorn indeed ……(poor old chap won’t have it printed though ….might have to do a guest spot on MB )

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Should say ..this disappeared…..mysteriously……then was posted …….that cleansing bot is a thing of wonder indeed ……..

    • Thanks Gunna, great post. I’ll add that the APS prior to Hawke and Keating was very different to the one they left to Howard. The creation of the Senior Executive Service was the point where those officials above the Clerical Grades, the ASs, FASs and so on, separated and they came under their own specific arrangements. Over time, the pay disparity between the clerical grades and the SES got much, much wider. When I took on an EL2 role in DOFA in the 90s, the APS was increasingly in AWAs and fixed term contracts, performance pay and so on. Everyone was on a different rate (mine was a base of $75k) but the SES were partying by comparison. My AS had a base at the time of around $130k, compared to around a 10% diff when I first started working in the APS in 1979.
      Back at DOFA, I arrived at the time when management started talking about ‘behaviours’, the ‘good’ ways of working in ‘teams’ and so on. It was a toxic place and management stressed the importance of delivering for the Minister. No other stakeholder mattered, certainly not the public interest. I was told very early on, you can’t say that. What, the truth? Unwelcome advice was just that, so you never wrote a brief that didn’t upset the status quo.
      The APS used to protect the public interest, Ministers and governments knew the limitations and staff were protected by having a job for life. Now, all the SES, and many senior EL2 appointments are vetted by the Minister, often on fixed term contracts. It’s been sad to watch over my lifetime. The recent reactions of the government to covid demonstrate that the APS is now much less able to construct good policies and outcomes for Australia.
      The outcome is governments which are able to misdirect public funds to their mates and even themselves. Telling lies is no longer a sin. The media, the judiciary, the police and other enforcement agencies – they used to deter corruption. Now, they look the other way (usually at us) and no one seems interested in the wealth that is being handed to private interests (present company excepted).
      Hope this makes it out of mod… Oh, and you have a great eye for art. What a pic.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Agree with this 100% especially the parts about the people’s blind willingness to take on enormous quantities of debt because thats just what is needed to be done.

      Its a pity that education around debt isnt taught in school and this is often learned only after a generation living through a great depression.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I’m sure that it will be fine. Trump would never encourage people to attend something as inconsequential as a campaign rally if there was a genuine risk to the health and safety of thousands of people from doing so.

  9. boomengineeringMEMBER

    She’s back, and can’t believe she didn’t buy a shirtload of mandarins. Although she admitted that she thought of putting some rescued from the tree before she left into a shopping bag making out they were bought. btw anyone interested in some free ones just call by, have plenty.

  10. notice how most of the people who complained about social distancing also wanted to keep negative gearing, don’t care about climate change, hate the welfare state and are all tax cut cultists. I don’t see why these types should be given the legitimacy that comes with hiding behind libertarianism.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      With any luck the WuFlu will mess their lungs up and we’ll never have to listen to them yell again.

      How much noise does shaking a fist make though, especially in large groups?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      I wonder how many ‘under investigation’ cases is from the BLM protest. Other state’s decision to keep their borders closed is now vindicated.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Chadstone is packed. People have reached there limit, and regular relations are resuming.
        So some at BLM, and quite a few at Westfields.

  11. Trump quote – “They don’t sell a lot of bombs when we’re not dropping bombs on people. You know that, right? It’s called the military industrial complex.”

    saw this out of context on twitter so will have to follow up.

    at the same time he’s celebrated weapons deals with Saudi’s and undone restrictions on exporting military tech. sometimes it feels like the politics of split personality disorder, he can drop anti-system truthbombs at the same time his actual policies go against the meat he throws to the base…over and over again.

      • yeah, that’s true. i think i’ve noticed a slight change in the narrative of his supporters though..from “Trump is our guy, playing 4D chess while pretending to be a chump, you just aren’t smart enough to see it” to “Trump is better than the alternative/Democrats bad/China bad”. maybe i’m reading too much into a few MB/Twitter encounters though.

        I’ve seen a similar thing in Brazil…non-hardcore Bolsonaro supporters have moved from absolute belief to rear-view mimrror justifications.

        again, maybe reading too much into anecdata.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Trump supporters don’t really seem to care about anything he does as long as he keeps verballing people they don’t like.

      • eventually he’s going to have to come out of hiding and i seriously doubt they can keep him pumped with enough drugs that he makes it through an election campaign without a campaign ending gaff/looking too unstable to run the country.

        trump still has a chance of Bradburying a win.

        • It’s a strange thought that Biden and Trump are considered the two best people to be leader out if a population of 328,000,000. They almost makes the people that our major parties throw up seem reasonable.

          • elasticMEMBER

            You’d think that one of the great benefits of a democracy is that you get to choose the people who will lead you. Something seriously wrong with Americans or the electoral process to be left with this situation. I think it’s a reflection that corporate interests that actually control America don’t really care who leads, so long as they don’t interrupt their money making too much.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      He call Covid19 “Kung Flu”. I LOLed. He’s a launatic but I respect his lack of filter.

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      Since when does calling someone a hypocrite equal being a member of the KKK?

      You looking at a spot at CNN?
      Listen to the clip…..hate on him all you want, but keep it honest.
      You serve your case no favour by pushing fake news.

      Your post is an example of TDS. Hate drives the fake.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Keep it honest??? Its straight from his twitter account and he knows exactly what he’s doing – you don’t! He’s trying to tell black people Biden is a racist, did you see any in the audience?

        Pathetic.

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          Supply the time-link to the clip where Trump calls Biden KKK…..that’s all I ask. I will apologise openly if what i have said is incorrect.

          Time to deliver…without the arm waving.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            What do you think I posted? He talks about Biden hanging out with KKK Democrats, don’t act the fool!

            And you want to talk about hypocrisy and hatred? You sit up there with your aquaponics ponds or whatever living very much the lefty life but you despise them because of identity politics so much you fall into identity politics and defending this fat jerk!

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            What do I think you posted?…well…these are your words, and I quote “He’s calling Biden a KKK klansman”

            Keep it factual, and we have no problems. I get it you hate the bloke. No problems from me on that front. I’ve explained my position many times before, so no need to repeat.

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            I didn’t know that living a sustainable life was a political statement.
            I just makes economic sense, it’s healthier…cheaper…..slower….quieter….meaningful.

            Chill out mig.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Why should I keep it “factual” when your very great president spent 2 hours telling whoppers? Stick your feigned “truth seeking”, and for kicks why don’t you explain your position again IP? Your son still doesn’t have a job and it’s all lefties fault?

          • migtronixMEMBER

            That’s good re your son.

            As for who thinks like that? TRUMP! for crying out loud!

            And you can’t tell me that Trump didn’t go out of his way to talk about a eulogy 17 years ago for someone who renounced segregation 40 years before that without the imputation! He’s a a dirty fighter with the thinnest skin, why do you defend the guy?

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            Oh, absolutely he’s a dirty fighter. He would openly admit that.
            Why do I defend him?
            He’s a necessary “glorious basterd” required to dismantle the old system.

            Keep in mind he has reason to fight dirty…..the last 3.5 years haven’t been a cakewalk for him.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            We all did the Robert Byrd thing back in 2008 with Obama – he’s rehashing old GOP favourites in desperation.

            He isn’t going to do anything to the old system except grift off it.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Supply the time-link to the clip where Trump calls Biden KKK…..that’s all I ask. I will apologise openly if what i have said is incorrect.

            Time to deliver…without the arm waving.

            LOL.

            I love the way that you can examine Trump’s words five layers deep to find something you like, but somebody else finding meaning you don’t like requires a literal quote.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Hahaha wow tight promotional shot much?? Pathetic.

            Posted by Dan Scavino – fat white guy!

          • Interested PartyMEMBER

            Call him what you want. No skin of my nose.
            You mentioned the lack of people of colour in the crowd…..I just found some for you….to give you perspective.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Posted a long reply but it didn’t pass the smell test so will break it up. Wow that didn’t either. Try again.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Second half,
          Would have been good to have Gavin nearby as steering away from electronics ( still doing electrical though). Had one CNC machine with a Lamborghini pump inside the Hawe hydraulic power pac. Lot of different labels inside the machine including Graziano mechanical system.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            First half.
            Ate all the split ones this morn, now getting backyard vit D rays. Can’t believe the surgeon said I would get skin cancer. Had to inform him that a little sunshine prevents it. Was going to redesign a machines electrical system today but looks like Jobkeeper may be coming my way so ( that’s it shouldn’t have used that word) got it.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            First half
            Ate the split ones this morn. Getting backyard vit D rays atm. Can’t believe the surgeon said skin cancer so had to inform him a little prevents it. Was going to redesign a machine electrical system today but

      • Same as Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus of course!
        ( When you’ve seen the animal trauma involved in getting from, say, 30 to 40 to 50 it makes you wonder at the ability of staff to keep the science going)

    • Don’t worry, we can export our know-how and get Centrelink to sort them out pretty damned quick! Bariatric Joe should still have the Lifters vs. Leaners speech loaded and ready to deploy.

    • you think we are much better?
      we have 12m officially employed with 3.5 millions on jobkeeper (very few people on jobkeeper would be counted in USA as employed)
      so we have around 9 million employed and around 20 million adults (aged 18 ) – 45%

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Hey doc, how did you get past spam, Couldn’t finish my above story when said,
        but Jobkeeper was ……. my way. That’s it, remember now the guys mentioned that word yesterday.

      • I doubt we are doing better
        But it seems easier to get data on US than Australia as most of Australia has been prescribed the Blue pill so no one goes looking for data that does not fit with the Blue pill world

  12. Hey @Haroldus are you still looking for cliveas? My parents neighbour just spent the afternoon ripping them out and putting them on the kerb – free for the taking. There are 50 plants. 25 Ashburton Ave, Turramurra.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Thanks but I went to the nursery on the long weekend and stocked up on Cliveas and Gardenias, and pulled 20 bromeliads out of mum’s garden.

      If only it was 2 weeks ago!

  13. I was just reading this Jessica Irvine piece on home contents insurance
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/how-i-cut-my-home-insurance-premium-in-half-20200619-p5549o.html

    Not sure how others feel about Insurance in Australia, personally I’m of the opinion that I’d rather save the Insurance premiums and hope that I never suffer a catastrophic loss. But honestly, what would have to happen for you to suffer such a personal loss while living in an apartment?
    The main problem that I have, particularly with Australian Insurers, is that I just don’t trust them. It’s that simple, I’d rather trust a known criminal with my house keys than trust an Aussie Insurance company to do the right thing in the case where I really needed their help (as in, I really needed the product that I believed I had been paying for all the previous years)

    • I’ve just been through a 4 month insurance claim after a tree fell on our house during the February storms. NRMA were appalling throughout and now that they’ve finally made the repairs (through their own tradies not the ones we could have lined up within a week) I am looking to love all my instance to someone else.

      Problem is, I can’t find anyway that’s had a good experience with any insurance company.

      • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

        I’ve had excellent experiences with Zurich NRMA GIO and more

      • That’s my problem, I don’t trust ANY Australian insurance companies.
        If there is zero trust then why would you pay someone up front, for something that you’re unlikely to ever receive?
        It is just plain stupid to give them one penny, but actually it’s worse then stupid because you’ve invited an untrustworthy element into a position of control in your life. The last thing anyone needs is an untrustworthy partner undermining them at the very moment that they are most vulnerable.
        To be honest I don’t understand why anyone voluntarily sends one penny their way.

        • I get it (I work for an insurer) – but the figures are something like 97% of claims get paid. There are issues with underinsurance which are trying to be addressed with building calculators on insurers websites. They’re changing the duty of disclosure to a duty not to misrepresent (i.e. an insurer needs to ask you a question rather than there being an expectation for a customer to disclose information upfront) and bringing insurance contracts into the Unfair Contract Terms that exist for other consumer contracts. In short, they’re trying to address the imbalance of power that exists between an insurer and a consumer (there’s a long way to go here!!). If your house burns down and you’re not insured – you’ll take a loan out to rebuild and pay 3% interest to a bank for 25 years. If you pay insurance and your house burns down, your claims is very likely to be paid and you’ll will have paid 0.3% of the value of the property each year. Ignoring all that – the legal liability cover is needed given how litigious Australia is. I rent and have contents insurance solely for the legal liability risk that follows me and my contents around Australia – I bang a trolley into someones car – covered. My dog bites a child – covered. I poke someones eye out with my umbrella in the Arcade – covered. Having to pay for insurance sucks – but not having it can be life changing for the worse unless you’re wealthy enough to self-insure all risk! Maybe I might feel differently if I didn’t work in the industry,

    • Is your goal to buy a present that costs $900 or stream audio wirelessly?
      I guess the alternative for wireless streaming might be a Sonos of some description, and you can link them together, as you can with most modern network audio, same with Bluetooth.
      A cheap alternative might be a Chromecast Audio if you can still get your hands on one… But it sounds like you want to spend, so go the Polk or a Sonos 🙃

    • thanks everyone. I have $1k-$1.5k budget for my home office as I plan to claim instant write-off so I thought I’d by better quality speakers than what I have right now. I will also be connecting these to my TV (wired) for better audio when watching movies or playing youtube music.

    • Jumping jack flash

      I worked with someone for a while who was always saying this. The other thing he said was that it doesnt take a lot of knowledge about something to convince someone with no knowledge about it that you’re an expert.

      • “…it doesnt take a lot of knowledge about something to convince someone with no knowledge about it that you’re an expert.”

        Very, very true.

  14. ok. gotta admit i am pro anti-racism protests, that i am in favour of changing systems that have inherited and perpetuated the structural racism of slavery and colonialism.

    then i have to read what is profoundly problematic is actually films about white girls mimicking korean modern culture.

    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/movies/deeply-sorry-director-apologises-after-sydney-film-festival-racism-outcry-20200621-p554o4.html

    fvck me. the left is dead. i’m going to live in another country once this sh1t dies down.

  15. Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

    Classic boyd cracking choice

    Stayed at Bundanon as kids (mum friends with One of Arthur’s kids )- we’d come from batsman’s bay where one of my degenerate brothers gave me a stomach bug I nursed up there and spent a day in agony until it all came out at which time Adam lent me his sax and we pakysd tequila and swam in the shoalhaven – house a marvel. Stayed at their beach house culburra and was asked to check the shed – Funny story thieves broke in one time took TV etc leaving a shed full of Arthur’s stuff , like I’m talking massive collection of originals

    That Yvonne was fun to talk to over a red

    Mum and brothers very lucky to have some originals

    • Here is their website. https://www.mlpd.de/english

      They even do the old Marxist rhetoric. It’s like socialism nostalgia.

      Lenin noticed Stalin because the Georgian had a policy for the diverse ethnic groups in the Russian empire. Perhaps the German Leninists will erect a statue to comrade Stalin for his progressive ethnic views.

      • Repopulation policies were especially a hit with the masses, especially seeing those queuing to head off to Siberia.

    • CanuckDownUnder

      It’s always the bloody jimmy grants! Go back to Ireland!

      At the start of the year Gil said the league would shut down for 30 days if any player tested positive, I guess we’ve already forgotten about that. Personally I hope we’re going ahead as planned as I fancy my chances of gaining admission to Giants v Pies on Friday.

    • I think there is faulty data in this and it lost me there. It says that covid raised the death rate in New York by 5.8 times. In 2017 there were approx. 37000 deaths in New York in these three months. Multiply by 5.8 and you are north of 200,000, which is just not in the data.

    • It’s also on Android phones under Google Services and Preferences. The CoVid tracker is opt-in but if you’re worried about big brother tracking you, thrown your phone in the bin but that still won’t do anything.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      😂 That’s one of the most transparent APIs on the phone. Worry about the 100 js trackers on every website first.

  16. Hotting up in the Middle East…….Turkey has got a reaction from their adventures……Mr Putin seems to have a lot of friends these days. Egypt moving into Libya

    https://twitter.com/I30mki/status/1274646106018910210

    He has also gotten India and China to talk about Indian attempts to cut the Gwadar-Kashgar link at US behest to make Middle East oil harder for China to get