Sunday Supplement: 24 May, 2020

Pivot Suspension, Rupert Boynes, 1966, Art Gallery of NSW


Macro & Markets








Terra Specufestorus


…and furthermore…

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)


    • This is now serious
      The trap door is about to open
      This is the Great Australian property crash
      I believe Aust will win gold for the greatest ever property crash in any country ever in history

      Listening to Martin re int only extensions etc
      … that’s all good to try and delay paying principal but it won’t make any difference when home interest rate head back to late 1980s levels of 15 to 20%

      I’m not sure if anyone remembers but the diff btw then and now is debt to GDP has gone from 40% GDP TO 120% GDP

      Enola Gay 2, is heading our way and about to drop the bomb

      Google shows you a great video clip when Enola Gay drops the atomic bomb on Hiroshima

      The bomb this time is going to land on our housing market

        • A quick drop to a 0.30 AUD /USD. and subsequent accelerating flight from the (SPP) South Pacific Peso

          • trade war with China can do that. But without trade war it will be hard for aud to fall that far. We are truly lucky with all those resources that we have. Just digging dirt can keep aud higher than 40c.
            I could be wrong but how it feels at the moment. Again, trade war with China can change things. Especially if it’s sudden so there is not time to adjust.

          • Yes probably lower AUD is quite inflationary, I think this insane QE will create inflation, CB have gone insane , at this stage a huge amount of bank customers aren’t paying back their loans so banks will have to increase out of cycle to stay profitable, it’s very concerning the amount of money both state governments and federal governments are borrowing. It’ll get to a trillion in no time. I just can’t see investors lending money at zero %, investors will demand a higher rate, HNH has said for many years he did not believe that QE would work in a small country like AUST, he felt it would possibly work in the very large countries, we are very reliant on offshore players willing to lend us money, I just can’t see them lending to us at 0% when US rates are higher. Probably because everyone thinks they will stay low, the opposite normally always happens when that’s every MSM commentary is “low rates”,
            In my personal opinion, as we head into Q4, when job keeper finishes this whole system is going to implode, it’s an absolute disaster, 1000x worse re debt,
            Just listen to Martin North, and even Cameron Murray, “property investors” set the price, property investors are going to run to the exit, CM gave the example that an investor could borrow at 2.8% and get a 4% return. I’d have to very strongly say that I’d be extremely surprised if an investor would get a 4% return, that’s a fantasy now. Ok you take a fixed rate for 2 years and what happens when it expires.
            I could list out 50 things but the banks are in huge trouble
            We are such idiots here, I believe the clowns at the RBA will go negative, people aren’t idiots they will just pull their money out. Banks will be forced to increase deposit rates to attract capital, even HNH said consistently that as property pduces crash, AUST will have to raise interest at a premium to offshore to fund all our debt. Which is a double whammy…..
            Everything points to interest rates rising.
            So let’s say I’m extreme in my view on interest rates I think you would have trouble coming up with an argument against ….that it’s a very high possibility that home loan rates will be 5% not 2.5%. Remember 2.5% to 5% isn’t a 2.5% increase it’s a 100% increase.
            So let’s just have a look what’s happening at the moment in the media. Everyone is whinging begging crying to the banks to extend their interest only period when their holiday repayments come due……..ASIC has given green light to banks to give anyone interest only.




            I said last week, that AUST will never repay the government debt that’s being built up

            I believe AUST will be forced to default like ARGENTINA is at the moment

        • Jim's Central Banking

          He/she thinks the Australia government, which borrows in its own currency and whose central bank buys those bonds, is going to default or look likely to default.

          • DominicMEMBER

            Just to be clear: those that argue that a Govt that prints their own currency can never default, are not very bright. The very act of printing currency is an act of default, because you are debasing the currency in which debt instruments are held. It I true they may never default explicitly but printing money to pay one’s debts has the same outcome.

          • Jim's Central Banking

            We’re discussing what would cause rising interest rates, in this case, the Australian government potentially not being able to make payments thus triggering a bond sell off and yield spike (which is not going to happen anytime soon). I’m not really interested in whether printing is an act of default or a technical default.

            If the economy does see rates rises over the coming year or so they will most likely arrive off the back of the private banks trying to compensate for a flat or inverted real curve.

          • Jim, a hypothetical question for you.
            Image if the Australian RBA elites declared that they would set the interest rate to 0.1% and promise to hold it there for the next 60 years.
            What would happen?

          • Yeah you mean like Germany after world war didnt default but just printed money to pay for debts?

        • many say this will happen but I don’t see it as high probability due to enormous debt. Also, it seems, elites learnt how to control all QEs and make sure only very small doses of those massive QEs trickles down to the masses so high inflation is only visible in few asset classes.

          Edit – But trade war with China may collapse AUD to 40c and bring inflation all over. And no, manufacturers will not be coming back – unless our Gov offers tariffs as long term protection.

          • Wages are actively suppressed, whilst the CPI basket is gamed. Sure there will be massive inflation, but not in official statistics. People live in a nominal world, real interest rates are too hard.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Hey, bcnich – are you listening to the Harry Dent, Martin North etc etc all-day gabfest today, being run as a webinar by Harry and associates?

        Since ScoVID-19, I think Harry has been tipping a ~40% cut in Strayan residential property prices, with obviously Sydney and Melbourne to be worst hit.

        Sounds like you may be even more negative than Harry?

        Why do you see mortgage interest rates returning to the early 1990s levels that I experienced (~17% pa), which would certainly be something worth shelling out big time on popcorn to take in?

        On your scenario, maybe SFM and Josh Rainbowberg should put aside the $60bn error (by employers) in the JK scheme need for, mortgagee interest support, albeit that amount wouldn’t go far or last for long?

        • Steve Keen and Harry Dent 8 or 10 years ago that prices will fall 40%

          We all know why back then prices went up again, rates were dropped from 8 to 4% FHOG etc etc etc etc

          ok so let’s say back then a home that was $1M dropped 40% (it did in Spain US Ireland)

          ok let’s say that $1M home is now $1.5M roughly

          S Keen and Harry Dent will be right that the home they predicted would be $600k with a 40% fall from $1M

          The value of the home is going to $600K and that’s a 60% fall

          They are right on the fall they just got the timing incorrect

          Timing is always very hard, I feel I’ve proven on this site that my timing has been pretty good

          The $1.5M home is going to fall to $600K

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            The $1.5M home is going to fall to $600K

            In large part I agree with the vibe of what you are saying. I think that there has to be an economic reset which would involve housing and immigration. In large part I also think that in parts of Melbourne (at least, but it wont be far off in Sydney or any other state capital) there are whole suburbs which have 1.5 million as a fairly common price which are essentially home to nothing other than parasites on the great Australian population ponzi/specufestor finance bubble – and the only thing keeping prices where they are is government policy [to keep house prices up].

            But if you take the houses of those Australians in the outer burbs and smaller regional towns (Geelong, Woolongong, Newcastle Ballarat etc) where a common prices is circa 600k right now for a 3 or 4 bedder on a suburban block, then the prospect that these types of houses will also experience a 2/3 creaming implies (IMO) major social disruption – for starters with immigration – as the many families grinding away meeting mortgage repayments with 1 and a half or 2 incomes and kids become progressively more hostile to the ‘elite’ that have crafted this world for them.

          • @ Gunna

            Yes you are correct
            Apologies to everyone, my views are and have been based on Melb and Sydney metro only
            I live and I’m from Melb and used to live in Sydney for many years
            Melb and Syd, 9 or 10 million, about @40% of the country “………

            Other areas rural coastal etc and smaller cities Adelaide Brisie SE QLD etc I believe will fair much better in comparison….

            Regardless I don’t think anywhere can escape

            Gunna, one more thing I have a an annoying best friend from Geelong I call “bubble boy”. I went to visit him last week and we drove around Geelong looking at property and values and then to Barwon and Torquay , I’m really sorry to any Geelong people but your city is depressing and in a bigger bubble than Melb
            I was shocked at the prices in METRO GEELONG
            I thought the surf coast was fantastic

            I actually have grown up going to Portsea and I can tell you prices are very expensive their and the place is full of wankers

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            Gunna, one more thing I have a an annoying best friend from Geelong I call “bubble boy”. I went to visit him last week and we drove around Geelong looking at property and values and then to Barwon and Torquay , I’m really sorry to any Geelong people but your city is depressing and in a bigger bubble than Melb

            I think Geelong is simply a derivative of the Melbourne bubble. It depends on where in Geelong you are looking as to the extent of the bubble. I think the Hamlyn Heights, Bell Park, Bell Post Hill, Waurn Ponds, Grovedale, Belmont style suburban areas (where at a guess I would imagine 600k is an ‘average’ price) is very heavily supported by people selling out of Melbourne (where the same thing in the burbs of Melbourne will often be circa 1.5 million). I think the really downmarket (ex-industrial) areas of Geelong like Corio, Norlane will continue to be bought by people wanting to be within an hour on a train line to Melbourne. Where I see Geelong coming under pressure will be the older established area – particularly those which became trendy/gentrified – Geelong West and East, Newtown (for the upmarket set) and Highton, and the new developments infilling between Geelong and Torquay at Armstrong Creek, Warralilly etc – in both cases people will simply be able to afford closer to Melbourne for what they get. Geelong desperately needs real jobs. The only real jobs it has these days are a couple of remaining manufacturers, bedpans, and the temporary public sector gigs being shunted down here as economic spakfilla.

          • Also the water is so fckn cold in Melbourne, I go to Burleigh Coolangatta and main beach
            I’ve been to so many places around rhe world and my GF and I always say main beach is the best beach we’ve ever been to
            Gold Coast is going to boom in the years ahead

            The Mexicans are coming in droves ….sorry to anyone in GC

            I’d have to also say all of us Melbourne ites are a pain in the arxe

            You are going to hate us

          • @ Gunna
            They drive me through half finished housing estates btw Geelong and Barwon Heads
            Even they were saying it’s a huge bubble
            I’m not sure of all the areas but felt it was very expensive

            I caught the train there from Melb, 55 mins and Geelong station is beautiful old heritage
            They were some highlights

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            Off memory, doesn’t Gunna quite often call Geelong, Geetroit reflecting its core?

          • Bc

            One of the reasons I left bayside Mel/Macedon ranges was the cold surf at juc, 13th, bells etc

            I move to the northern rivers and boom! Sharks ! Yes it’s irrational but I’ve young kids so nah

            Smart drum lines seem to have made a diff

            Burleigh is great – commune espresso for coffee always

          • @swampy – agreed, that commune place is great and on its own worth a drive down to the coast!

        • DominicMEMBER

          The key to understanding this is understanding nuances of ‘nominal’ and ‘real’ prices. Hypothetically, if the RBA went on a wild and unrestrained print-fest right now, nominal prices may never budge but if the Pacific Peso loses 40% of its purchasing power in the process then the value of your asset in ‘real’ terms has fallen 40%. It’s that simple.

          As for interest rates rising — that’s what market forces will do, but these will be counter-acted by policymakers who know that rising rates are a death sentence for every ponzi currently in operation. Again, the only policy measure available is money-printing, but that has limited effectiveness before it outright obliterates the economy and any last vestige of social harmony.

        • I think I’ll have a break from Harry and Martin
          I’m going for a walk and watch a movie
          I need a break from myself & my Armageddon view

          My GF has read my the riot act she doesn’t want to hear it on the weekend

          Weekdays ok within reason

          She blames me because we stopped getting asked out, we don’t have many friends as we did

          No one wants to hear the truth

          • Goldstandard1MEMBER

            No they don’t Bnich. I only comment when I am asked now for that EXACT REASON. Last year I was asked my opinion for amusement, this year I seem to be asked for insight and interest because I’m on the opposite side of despair to them…..funny how people tap you on the shoulder depending on what mood they are in.
            I sold my family home in September and chose to rent a house twice as good as we could buy and people thought we were nuts. Now, not so much.
            A couple of wives of mates ask me how could I know that pandemic “Black Swan” was about to happen? I say that the debt bubble Armageddon pop was going to be popped by something soon, a pandemic was the eventual winner (they look at me like “what is a debt bubble, isn’t $1.3m normal for a dogbox?”
            At that point I usually excuse myself to open a bottle of wine or something.
            …….now the fallout.

      • In terms of dropping a bomb picture Slim Pickens as Major Kong riding the nuke in Dr Strangelove. YEEEEHARRRRR!

        • Much more realistic than Peter Seller’s hammy doctor shtick – just painful to watch.

      • Poochie the Rockin DogMEMBER

        I want you to be right – but I doubt it’ll happen, rather than increase the debt pile through lowering interest rates, government spending will now pick up the slack, and it’s deficits for every currency issuing country from here on out. Which means house prices are propped up, they’ll turbo charge immigration as soon as possible and things will carry on much the same as before.

        • How do the immigrants get in to the country, immigration to the extent we had is finished for a year or 2 at least
          Immigrants will be going back to their own country.

          • Going by my middle-ring suburban shopping centre – same numbers of Indians, Nepalese and South Americans around.

            There’s even a new nail salon owned by Asians that has just opened up to complete with the other Asian nail salon in the relatively small shopping centre.

          • Poochie the Rockin DogMEMBER

            I’d be surprised if the border isn’t opened by the end of the year, and when it is migration will quickly ramp up – can’t have renting look so attractive compared to housing – we need the migrants back ASAP to prop up the rental market which will then flow onto housing.

      • Thank you for the below explanation, I agree that is a real possibility and the idea that IR’s can be negative in deflation periods is a very courageous presumption that discounts risk while risks are on a moon shot.

        Thanks bcnich

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      As disturbing as it is to think about I find myself wondering if we are far closer to a major rift here – an ideological and economic divide, maybe involving some shooting action (or threats of it).

      Presumably the Chinese will crack right down, and Hong Kong is a much smaller economic part of China than it once was. I would have thought that might generate a few refugees, and a gloomy view would have that as the starting point for some real hardening of positions – vis Taiwan, vis the South China sea, and potentially vis global trade. Australia is quite exposed here.

      • Taiwan was always the main game. One country two systems was to be demonstrated in HK as the model for re-integrating Taiwan. Where to for Taiwan now one country two systems has been exposed as the sham it always was?

        This is the main game.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Yeah – I think CCP have made an error here (at least from their perspective). Any Taiwanese sentiment towards integration is likely shot now. They know how that looks based on what has happened in HK.

      • Is it possible that in the houses of power there are lines being drawn on the map of chyna a few new autonomous breakaway regions ? HK and Guangzhou are not going to want to carry other parts of the country / economy. The south west is an odd bedfellow too, a lot of Thibet going on there. and Islamic regions would love to opt out.

        Plenty of scope for destabilization.

      • I spend most of my time playing various scenarios around these events. This is very real and I can’t see how it can be avoided at this point as all sides are throwing fuel into the fire.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        It looks like Orwell’s 1984 scenario of 3 major powers in never ending conflict.
        This seems to be a prerequisite for being a major player on the world stage.
        If China moves against HK or Taiwan there will be a military conflict.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          China is already at war with HK and Taiwan, and then it has also never been at war with either.


        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          There is no US nuclear guarantee for HK and few people seriously challenge CCP/mainland China’s sovereignty over it.
          The history behind the whole leasing agreement imposed by the British was a disgrace.

          Taiwan on the other hand with its US Support is much more worrying.
          The CCP would rather see 600 million of its own people Nuked than lose face to their old enemy the Kuomintang. (They’d do it themselves if they deemed it nessary to maintain power)
          It goes way beyond your standard, run of the mill, great power territorial expansion. Taiwan is ideologically crucial and personal for the CCP and as long as they rule China Taiwan is not negotiable.

          Wonder what the indigenous Taiwanese think about it all.

          “After the end of World War II, the Chinese Civil War resumed between the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang), led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communist Party of China, led by Mao Zedong. Throughout the months of 1949, a series of Chinese Communist offensives led to the capture of its capital Nanjing on 23 April and the subsequent defeat of the Nationalist army on the mainland, and the Communists founded the People’s Republic of China on 1 October.[78]

          On 7 December 1949, after the loss of four capitals, Chiang evacuated his Nationalist government to Taiwan and made Taipei the temporary capital of the ROC (also called the “wartime capital” by Chiang Kai-shek).[79] Some 2 million people, consisting mainly of soldiers, members of the ruling Kuomintang and intellectual and business elites, were evacuated from mainland China to Taiwan at that time, adding to the earlier population of approximately six million. In addition, the ROC government took to Taipei many national treasures and much of China’s gold reserves and foreign currency reserves.[80][81][82]

          After losing most of the mainland, the Kuomintang remained in control of Tibet, portions of Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Yunnan along with Hainan Island until 1951 when the Communists subsequently captured these territories too. From this point onwards, the Kuomintang’s territory was reduced to the island of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu Islands (Fujian Province), and two major islands of the Dongsha and Nansha island groups. The Kuomintang continued to claim sovereignty over all of “China”, which it defined to include mainland China, Taiwan, Outer Mongolia and other areas. On mainland China, the victorious Communists claimed they ruled the sole and only China (which they claimed included Taiwan) and that the Republic of China no longer existed.[83]”

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            Thanks for a very concise and accurate history lesson EP.
            Agree that neither Tiawan or Hong Kong were other than parts of China.
            That will not stop US and to a lesser extent UK, and their allies from interfering in China’s internal politics, which China will not tolerate.
            Te Great Game continues.
            Rough weather ahead.

          • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

            I’ve seen a small percentage of those Chinese treasures on display in the Taipei Museum. It is a staggering collection and probably the #1 thing to see in Taiwan if you like ancient Chinese artifacts.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            Completely agree.

            Even if some form of support was to see breakaway states out of parts of China – and I should state right at the moment I simply dont see it happening – those entities would barely be viable, insofar as they would be the ethnic based (tribal to one degree or another) in the more marginal areas (Tibet on a plateau and Xinjiang around a desert). The origins of the British control of Hong Kong is pretty ordinary (a result of the Opium War), but the far bigger issue is that even if we accept that those who have been in Hong Kong for generation have been acculturated to Western style press and administration (I do), they are now such a minor part of economic China I cant see the CCP letting them have much slack .

            My guess would be that if there was an actual economic reason for running immigration strong into Australia then the Hong Kongers would be prime candidates. I think we are some way off Taiwan being allowed to be reclaimed by the CCP, but the same would go for the Taiwanese.

          • “The CCP would rather see 600 million of its own people Nuked than lose face to their old enemy the Kuomintang. (They’d do it themselves if they deemed it nessary to maintain power)”

            **** the Chinese (and the rest of Asia) and their obsession with saving face.

            Taiwan is a democratic sovereign nation with a rule of law. Taiwan isn’t some tinpot dictatorship threatening the world like North Korea.

            This is China using the pathetic “face” excuse to invade and colonise a democratic sovereign nation.

    • Perfect time for expat Aussies to return home with all their savings and boost the local property markets.

      • Not necessarily. As long as expats can still earn big bucks and only pay 17% income tax they’ll stay. It’s only those who don’t have foreign passports and are stuck in HK who are concerned.

      • If things get that bad they arent ending peacefully. In that situation you think they will be allowed to get their savings out? Or is it more likely they will have to leave with the clothes on their back in the dead of night? Whoever wanted out had better have already gotten cash out already and bought. That pent up demand may be imaginary.

        • I think those with money and even a trace of brains already moved their savings (bulk of it) to other countries. But we have to understand that Australia is competing for these funds with rest of the world. Many Chinese may see us too close (geographically) to China to feel safe. I think US will end taking lion share of these funds.

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            That is my understanding too. I suspect many people have their ‘plan b’ (and even ‘c’) in place already.

    • hong kong died a long time ago

      the protests weren’t just about the extradition laws, they bubbled out of the anxiety hong kongers have of losing their status in china and the increasingly unaffordable, oligarchical city it had become

      hong kong as it is now is pretty much what the lucy turnbulls and scott morrisons of this world want to turn australia into- a “democratic” state run for the benefit of homeowners, landlords and investors, with the poor and young increasingly having to cram into cyberpunk-esque crawlspaces ( at higher and higher prices. available land remains locked away to developers and ever increasing urban density is seen as the faux panacea to the problem of “unaffordability”, with it only having the effect of multiplying underlying land prices– and thus real estate costs– exponentially. hong kongs a dump now, hasn’t produced anything of cultural value in ages, and, dare i say, it, with all the hate that gets dumped on china lately, has an inferior political system to the dengism-marxism-leninism of the ccp at delivering the economic right of shelter to its citizens.

      • So for the economic right of shelter, you will excuse the CCP’s failings. They are evil mate.

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          They are not evil.
          Like the US and every other nation they have interests, not friendships.
          Australia needs to learn this .

          • How would Drew Pavlou go as a CCP citizen. Dead, death camp etc. Social scores, surveillance state, wilful or negligent spreading of virus worldwide via international flights whilst closing domestic flights in [email protected], wolf warrior diplomacy, theft, corruption, corrupting world organisations such as WHO, persecutory trade practices, South China Sea belligerence, organ harvesting from political prisoners, the list goes on. The Chinese government is grotesque and so far from our countries values it’s not funny. Australia needs to disengage, slowly carefully methodically and with the knowledge that it will cost our economy short term, from these thugs, or else our sovereignty will be lost in a decade or two.

      • What a blinkered, stunted analysis.
        Talk about focussing on housing to the exclusion of everything else.

      • Chinese students don’t do such courses so they have most likely been axed.

    • I sense this story has a long way to run…that article in the guardian about UQ suddenly remembering a few liberal values is a huge step..

    • Prejudicing UQ’s reputation? UQ have trashed that all by themselves by acting as lickspittles towards the ChiComms.

      • DominicMEMBER

        They need a root and branch clear-out over there — Peter Hoj on his own is not enough.

    • no. US MSM and DNC will save Donald. Even after he fckd up his response to covid19 he still has a chance as MSM just does not know how to actually hold him responsible. He should really be in single digit approval but he is not.

        • DominicMEMBER

          Biden is already fluffing his lines — and he’s not even under any kind of pressure.

          • lol.. exactly and this is why I said what I said. But DNC and MSM decided to go with Biden not the people.. again.

  1. Steve Waugh was involved in more runouts than any other international cricketer. It was mostly his partner that had to walk off the field. That was published on Cric Info earlier this week. In less than 24 hours Warnie trolled Steve about it. Within another 24 hours Rob Moody had collected the run outs where the partner is out. Enjoy.

    • Amazing what people get up to in quarantine. Never remembered him as being prone to runouts, but the third comment has broken down who’s fault it is – S. Waugh 25%, partner 43%.

    • I watched the first 15 or so run outs. Simon O’Donnell was a repeat victim. Seemed to take it in his stride. Great bloke. I recall he had a serious cancer diagnosis around that time, which he batted away too.

  2. The beginning of the end for Hong Kong was when it was handed over 23 years ago.

    We really need to knock on the head any idea China has of invading the peaceful democratic sovereign nation of Taiwan because they need to avenge a grudge that’s been festering for 75 years.

    It’s outrageous that talk of this is even tolerated.

    • WhatcouldgowrongMEMBER

      Agreed. HK’s demise began from reunification. This was going to happen sooner or later.

  3. Below is an interesting list of sold properties in Sydney. Most weren’t sold at an auction and/or weren’t sold during the 13-05 to 23-05-2020 time frame. Yet they made it to the Domain Sydney Auction Results list for 23-05-2020
    That’s 28 out of 105 properties that are listed as sold
    The total number of results listed is 135 (and not 168 as claimed by Domain in the Property Snapshot) out of 247 properties listed for auctions
    and as mentioned above there are 105 sold properties in the list and not 125
    btw I’ve got screenshots of results below just in case there’s tampering with the sale date

    • Bl00dy good work.
      Does anyone keep the historical domain auction results? Want to see if they double reported that one during April or just held off reporting it sold so to not show a big drop in May.

    • Keep in mind that a lot of properties go under offer and remain that way for several weeks depending on contract conditions, before finally being marked as sold.

      When my own home was sold, it sat under offer for several weeks. Despite the fact I had made an unconditional offer and the cooling off period was passed within 3 days. It just took the agency a while to update the result. Not sure if it was laziness or another reason? But the Mrs was irked about it and called them to mark it as sold. Having been gazumped in the past we took no chances.

      • Yeah but these are auction results. Auction conditions and thst stuff doesnt actually apply right? Should be reported by end of the day, not weeks later..

        • Not the auction results. But I have noticed they lump in private sales data on the week that the contract goes through or the property is confirmed sold.

        • Yes I know, but after having it happen in the past we were paranoid that something bad was gonna happen after so many times we just missed out on a property.

          • That’s my point – how can you be gazumped (contract in invalidated ) once you’ve executed

    • The whole auction data thing is criminal fraud aimed at market manipulation for profit. The perpetrators should be prosecuted and jailed,but they’re not because they’re part of the system.

    • Markus Paddey

      Good work. A journalist looked at this last year, and found huge misreporting of sales then too.

      Take a look at this:

      The long and the short of it is that very little of what journalists say about real estate should be taken at face value. Their very jobs depend on keeping the market busy and expansive.

      Misleading sales histories are just a straw in the wind blowing through the domain of endless joy.

      Buyer, and seller, beware.

      • That’s a good article.
        It sheds light on the scam that is perpetrated ultimately in the interests of loan growth for the banks…

  4. I’m at the stage where I almost feel indifferent to whether Aussie RE prices crash or not after all these years.

    However, volumes are down and that means our esteemed RE agents, mortgage brokers, buyers agents and all the other value adding members of strayan RE society that give so much to the world, are eating turrd. And that makes me more than happy.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That’s exactly where I’m at. Couldn’t care less about the difference between owning or renting but I do want to see the arsehats that destroyed Australia pay for it.

      As for owning a place, in the not so distant future the only value in this land will be in RE. Watch a broke government tax owners into bankruptcy.

      • I fully expect Governments to try milk us via land tax. But that would kill the Golden goose at the same time.

        • Exactly, one of the reasons other jurisdictions are less expensive is land taxes. If we go to land tax borrowers will have to add that to living expenses and that will crush borrowing limits. Bring it on, I says

          • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

            I don’t know why they are only talking land tax. Why not just tax the full improved value? Most American states/counties end up in the range of 1 to 2%. So about $10k to $20k per year on a million dollar property….. forever. Surely fairer than land alone.

          • I hate the American system, you shouldn’t be punished for building a quality home. Land is the bubble. Land is what should be taxed to stop hoarding it.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Bingo. Real estate and Super

        Doing it for the collective good. Pollies gotta get paid right?

    • ‘And that makes me more than happy.’ – Ain’t that the truth.

      RE is f’ed, mostly because the minority of the community despises FIRE muppets. The actual proportion of people with the strength to do anything in the face of societal sanction is tiny.

      As this minority becomes larger, I figure the banks will do everything possible to make RE the scapegoats. Dodgy RE agents will become public enemy number one.


  5. migtronixMEMBER

    “The exodus of international students from Melbourne amid the COVID-19 pandemic has left thousands of vacant apartments, units and houses in the city’s centre and a big financial headache for their landlords.

    The rental vacancy rate in the CBD and surrounding areas has nearly tripled since last April from 1.9 per cent to 5.4 per cent, according to figures from Melbourne City Council, reaching its highest point in more than a decade.”

    Because we’ve been running a nose bleed ponzi for more than a decade!!

    • Vacancy in in Harry Triguboff type areas like Waterloo is eye watering. Rents are plummeting.
      Yee haw…. I’ll bet Harry is screaming down the Phone at Gladys and Scummo on a daily basis (Harry will be taking a hit as he actually fills most of his buildings with international student renters)

      Could explain why Gladys in particular has changed her tune of late.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        The blood pressure for Gottiboff, HRH’s megaphone, must be off the planet worrying about HRH’s predicament?

        Well, at least Gladys is trying to do the right thing by HRH by wanting to open the NSW border (read airports) to foreign uni students – she just has to convince SFM and the ABF to get on the same page?

    • DingwallMEMBER

      They want to super-charge immigration … I guess to offset some of this……I assume “super-skilled talent” means anyone that designs new kitchens or is an expert at converting 1m square into an AirBnB.

    • I always wondered who would want to live in those inner city apartments. Surely not locals. And now we’s people who come from worse. Having been to Hong Kong and Macau, they live in worse. Much worse.

    • Each week at my work, the entire P&S team (in excess of 80 people) get together for 1.5 hours to kumbaya the “agility and “resilience” of the team in being able to conduct their meetings from in front of the computer at home rather than from in front of the computer in the office.

      Then, without any sense of irony, they all provide feedback about how much more “productive they can be working from home bit can’t wait to come back to the office because they “miss their people.”

      • DominicMEMBER

        That sounds like another ‘winning’ HR initiative. I often wonder whether HR folk are as insufferable in their private lives.

    • HR in my firm has been fighting against work from home arrangements for a long time. I think they feel dis-empowered when all the little employees are not in one place under their thumb. They fear a loss of influence.

      • No more sexual harrassment claims to keep em busy when we are working from home. Fearing job redundancies.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Lol hadnt thought of that! There’s a whole bunch of corporate training modules bs that won’t have to be completed yearly with work from home.

          We’ve been told wfh through to November and I doubt our team ever goes back to sitting in one space.

        • I must admit I have upped my game in this regard since working from home. One of the less discussed side benefits.

      • Exactly, because teams that work from home probably don’t need HR to police their interactions the same anymore. So highlights that HR is useless. Something we have known for many years now.

        • DominicMEMBER

          It’s perfectly fine being useless — the degree of self importance AND being useless at the same time that gets me.

    • Stuff like event planning will eventually return as the lockdown loosens, but I think you’re right on the money about HR and the reduced need in light of being able to work from home.

    • Who cares about the men who lost their jobs when we decided we didn’t need to make things anymore or that men are more likely to die at work – a woman has lost her fluffy marketing job!

      • Dude – in current year don’t you know that [email protected] is always everywhere bestest all-the-time-est. Anytime vag fails anywhere anyhow its clearly a case of misogyny by evil men/trolls/alt-rightists.

        Sugar spices and everything nicest always-est. I for one can’t wait when everyone in management is a [email protected] barren perpetual chip-on-shoulder feminists. Then it’ll be really inclusive.

        Think about all the progress such progressive progressiveness can make! So woke!!

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Hey mig

      You know that thing you posted to poppy about the politician saying “go and lobby someone else”?

      Could you post it again? I can’t find it. I thought it was local pollies but it looks like Josh.


    • I see these articles as primarily a signalling exercise to the Nev Power/Richard Goyder type business interests rather than anything solid at this stage. Scummo has to keep his masters happy, they were the ones who delivered the numbers that allowed him to roll Turnbull = plant articles like this in the media via proxies.

      Lets see how it pans out given unemployment and an ALP telling a different story on immigration.
      Beware buying into articles like this. I think they are a softening up exercise and part of Scummo’s smoke and mirrors show.

      • The FNG.MEMBER

        That’s what I pin my hopes on. That Scomo will say the right things to satisfy the ponzi lobby but last minute will put his foot down and say that he tried to sell it to the public but he will lose election if it goes ahead. A lot of donations to signal too but must know it’s over for at least a few years.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      The comments are telling. A lot of anger and outrage. The sock puppets mustn’t clock on until 10am on a Sunday

      It’s worth writing to your local member and telling them you’ll vote for anyone but LNP/Labor if they keep up this shvtfckry.

      • Lol. I liked this one:
        “We need a “skilled politician” intake, as we don’t have any here.”

      • Absolutely. I find it works even better if the threat is you will vote for the other major party. I.e tell your Labour MP you will vote for Lib/PHON on this issue. Lib MP tell them you will vote Lab based on KKs policy etc.

        Lib MPs know that PHON preferences will end up going to them anyway.

        Voting for a minor party once you go in the ballot box is the way to go but the threat from the other major party is what they are most concerned about.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Yeah I see that piece as mainly a signalling exerciser. It is based around Alan Tudge for crying out loud.

      IMO, the issue with Migration (and Migration numbers) at the moment are these.

      1.That new immigrants do not represent a drain on the taxpayer disproportionate to the contribution that they make.
      2. That new migrants are not going into employment situations that place them in direct competition with Australians unemployed as a result of COV19
      3. That new migrants are not competing with unemployed and underemployed Australians for housing

      If you think that Australian jobs are likely to be very very weak for quite some time – and I am one of those who thinks the economic impact of the COV19 is nowhere near the bottom as yet – the above are pretty firmly in the interests of the migrants as well.

      They may try to tweak ‘the mix’ between family and skilled, but if they come to decide on an increase in overall numbers I think the Australian public would sniff that out pretty quick. Imagine explaining to Australians who are reverting to half rate Jobseeker that you were increasing numbers of migrants to being in and sit on welfare while they sought a job. Its a bit like the extra 60 billion they have discovered they arent using vis jobseeker. There is likely to be some claimant on it.already. Imagine going to the real estate lobby saying you need to do real estate reform, or trying to fend off calls for tax cuts for pensioners (or whoever), or a corporate tax cut, when all those lobbies think that in extremis you had another 60 billion to play with. Imagine going to the Australian people and saying you need to increase immigration numbers – and this is before thinking about the environmental implications and water usage data – when they think that the government should be supporting them back into meaningful work.

      My guess at the moment is that unless migrants to Australia can be shown to have meaningful jobs waiting for them, then immigration juicing is going to be a tough ask. By all means tout a ‘super skilled visa’ and by all means have as many come in with it that want it. But if all those super skilled types are delivering pizzas and stacking shelves then the super skilled visas will become as big a waste of time as the ‘special investor’ visas.

      For mine Australia’s ‘answer’ to its ‘Immigration’ question is ‘the economy’. The simple fact is that Australia has not had an economy which needed meaningful immigration for a generation – ever since we started on the road to the real estate bubble and population ponzi double act. If they (government) want to bring in more immigrants – and this is before they think about, where they go and what ethnic/race attributes they have – they need ‘real’demand for them (or real enough to be plausible for an existing population which can be expected to be concerned about employment and housing costs). And the government aint got no ‘real’ demand at the moment.

      Other than that I am starting to wonder if Australia’s next ‘migration wave’ will be likely heavy on ex Hong Kong residents, ex Taiwanese, or possibly even ex-other Chinese persecuted minority groups (Tibetans and Uiyghurs for starters) or (if the US and ‘west’ can forment enough social disturbance in China maybe a wave of Han Chinese who are seeking ‘freedom’ somewhere else). I also tend to suspect that Brexit and the ancient ties between us, will see a surge in Pom migrants as the isolation of the UK unfolds.

      • I agree with all that. The Citizen Party. Have some good ideas re: developing infrastructure and nation building that could be implemented to help offset unemployment, citing examples from the past where it worked for this country. I recently signed 1 of their petitions. Worth a look. Even if you don’t agree with their somewhat pro view of China.(which I don’t).

        • Be careful with those guys. They are linked to the very creepy LaRoche outfit in the US. LaRoche is a hardcore political cult. Very very nasty one too.

          It is a pity because I quite like their message in a lot of ways.

          LaRouche supporters gained control of the formerly far-right Citizens Electoral Council (CEC) in the mid-1990s. The CEC publishes an irregular newspaper, The New Citizen.

          The CEC is concerned with Hamiltonian economics and development ideas for Australia. It has been critical of Queen Elizabeth II’s ownership of an Australian zinc mine and believes that she exerts control over Australian politics through the use of prerogative power. It has been in an antagonistic relationship with the B’nai B’rith’s Anti-Defamation Commission, which has been critical of the CEC for perceived anti-semitism. It has asserted that the Liberal Party is a descendant of the New Guard and other purported fascists such as Sir Wilfrid Kent Hughes and Sir Robert Menzies. The CEC also says it is fighting for “real” Labor policies (from the 1930-40s republican leanings of the Australian Labor Party)

      • If there is an immigrant group I’d love to have more of here it is dissident HKers and Taiwanese.

          • That sounds good at first, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it.

            “The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. No more, no less.” Schlock Mercenary, maxim 29.

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Agree with LSW…the enemy of my enemy is the enemy of my enemy ……but don’t want them in my camp
            Straya is stupid enough to to invite them in ….sell them apartments ……then one day they might seperate from the federation
            …….its happened before …….Singapore is the model

        • 1 in times where the CCP influence is to be curtailed, we need more of those who have had decades of experience in these dealings and still managed to survive (even if only just with HK). The kind of insights we will be enriched with on the moves to expect from CCP will be invaluable. The kind of stuff our chief idi0ts won’t be seeing coming..

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Just put Andrew Hastie and a few others up there ….they got it …no need to import more skilled migrants to tell us how to protect the country ….cos that is the the problem ..,,bit by bit the country is disappearing

    • So two former Treasury secretaries end up as university execs spruiking the ‘Big Australia’ policy. Reminds me of retired politicians who go on to enjoy riches in the private sector from the interests they favoured when they were in parliament (special hello to a former Minister for Trade who loved free trade agreements).

      As always, the comments in those articles show the gulf between the elites and the little people. It seems to be wider and more strained than ever. I wonder when something gives, and what that looks like in the Australian context.

  6. As a non-practicing amateur gynecologist, does anyone want my esteemed medical opinion on the batflu stats?

    • Yeah!
      As long as you dont post repeatedly and without reading what you post, across multiple unrelated pages over multiple weeks, attack peoples intellect when they disagree with you and then cry victim when you are warned, expect everyone to come to your defence and point out the “only one comment” that broke the camels back as evidence that you are being treated unfairly.. yeah as long you dont do that.. i would love to hear your thoughts. Please go ahead.

  7. Banana ManMEMBER

    Now that we’ve got a spare 60 Bil, why don’t we buy back port of Darwin, water rights sold with farms, power, sugar, milk producers… Actually, if they can just print it why can’t they print our income tax?

    The dash towards growth & tech:
    Russell Growth/Value ratio’s 14 month RSI right now is among the *HIGHEST* readings ever.
    This only happened:
    Feb 1980: stocks crashed next month in March 1980
    Dec 1999: near end of dot-com bubble
    July 2015: stocks crashed next month in Aug 2015

    Didnt happen 2 months ago….
    Someone was saying yesterday.. does feel like the eye of the storm. Too close to it to recognise what we are looking at.
    Orr the next boom and bull market is coming lol!

    • All these markets are effectively fake now.
      I don’t think any historic precedent really applies as there has been total lift off from economic reality.
      No more than a casino driven by epic monetary expansion.

    • Jim's Central Banking

      It feels like something is going to break, but it also seems central banks will protect their fake market at all costs.

      If there’s another market downturn they’re probably figure out a way to buy equities and we’ll have to suffer through a bunch of so-called capitalists telling us why that is actually a good thing.

    • DominicMEMBER

      The other ‘highest ever’ stat is the current scale of money printing the world over — whether it’s enough to keep all the plates spinning, we shall soon find out.

      • Agreed, I’m seeing a few articles saying same thing. It’s a smarter version of: don’t fight the Fed. Handouts are going into the market sure, but this says mums n dads are buying Nasdaq and trading vaccine optimism. From Asia:
        “In sum, what we have in the market is an unholy mess. We have bored, unseasoned, emotionally conflicted investors playing around in a murky pool where one of the most opaque sectors has the ability to make the biggest waves. It’s very stupid – people are going to drown.”

        So how to trade against the crowd? And when? When they need that money back?

        • WhatcouldgowrongMEMBER

          I have no idea, because I’ve been trying to figure it out myself. Put options on SPY? Buy some hideously difficult to time VIX product? This got me thinking about what Harry Dent said about depressions having double dips and perhaps we’ve got one building. Also may explain the spike in silver we’ve had recently as well. As far as timing goes since it’s just a once-off it could be fairly soon, but again I really don’t have an idea. All I know is that you sure don’t want to be buying whatever dip we have now.
          I only really took notice because IB’s chief strategist was discussing this and looked decidedly worried.

  9. Chairman MeowMEMBER

    So much for “China Decoupling”,
    China’s March export value rose 8.5% year on year, diverging widely from analyst forecasts which foresaw a 12% decline. Strong exports growth to Asia, and especially Southeast Asia, fed the unexpected improvement.The March data denote a steady increase in Asian economic integration, in which a larger portion of Asian trade is directed towards Asia itself. While America contemplates decoupling from China, it seems that Asia is decoupling from the United States. Since the US-China tech war began in April 2018 with Washington’s ban on chip exports to China’s ZTE Corporation, “de-Americanization of supply chains” has been the buzzword in the semiconductor industry.Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia purchased about 50% more Chinese products in April 2020 than they did in the year-earlier month. Japan and Korea showed 20% gains. Exports to the US rose year-on-year, but from a very low 2019 base.
    China’s imports from Asia also rose sharply.A shift in supply chains away from the United States, though, probably accounts for some of the jump in Asian trade. Japan now ships more semiconductors to China than it does to the United States. As late as 2014, Japan sold three times as much semiconductors to the US than to China.”
    But the USA will replace our China markets for being their stooges right?

    • DominicMEMBER

      I’m sure those export figures are legit — makes perfect sense: a 20.5% delta. Yip!

  10. Is anyone interested in discussing Algorithmic Trading, especially wrt Bot market making.

    • Yes, do you have any bots in the market ? What strategy are you trading with ?

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I’ve been thinking about this, it would be interesting but I have no idea where to even start, so couldn’t contribute much I’m afraid.

      Would be keen to see what other people think/do.

  11. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Hertz (owns Thrifty) has $17 billion dollars of debt! How is that possible? It’s a low margin, low profit business with high overheads.
    Where do ex-hire cars get sold? Grays?
    How are equipment rental businesses like Coates Hire faring at the moment?
    So many questions.

    • I’ve got a simple three word answer
      Clayton, Dubilier and Rice
      It might not be the whole answer but it is a huge part of the answer.
      If you add Carl Icahn name to the list then you’ll understand why this outcome was inevitable, activist shareholders are not about achieving some social greater good, it’s all about their own greater good.

    • Thrifty in Australia is owned by NRMA Member Services. I received an email from them the other day offering $1k off their fixed price vehicles at Pickles Auctions. The cars were so over-priced, totally ridiculous. They must be bleeding hard too.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Buying an ex-rental car would be a bit of an adventure.

        On the one hand, they’d have been well maintained mechanically.

        On the other hand, half the drivers or more would have flogged them mercilessly from day dot.

    • Jevons ghostMEMBER

      Thrifty Australia is apparently 100% owned by NRMA. Not a badly run outfit when compared with the rest of the big 4 here in Straya.
      As for Hertz Oz……Better left unsaid!

    • DominicMEMBER

      What goes on over in the US is little short of insane. I worked with a New Yorker who would regularly, on visits to his parents there, hire cars for as little as $10 a day. Margins!! And then, $17bn of debt …

      I swear there is almost no real equity left in corporate world these days — just debt.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Funny how it’s a ‘Boom’, not a calculated short term play enrich a few at the cost of the many.

      • ‘But as this crisis will eventually pass, we will see the effects on immigration, population growth and housing demand.’

        Yes. Yes we will. You know its going to be good when that’s the last line of the article 🙂 🙂

  12. Wow. I strongly suggest reading the scmp article on rich families changing attitudes to foreign education/investment and migration.

    I’m not surprised by this change. It’ll be interesting to see how widespread orentrenched it becomes. It’ll alsobe interesting to see if Straya/NZ and to a lesser extent Canada (countries that managed the first wave of Covid ok) are differentiated from the US/UK/Europe

    • Depends on what the motivation is. Australia has never been viewed as a place to get a good education or to make money. Getting into ivy leagues is still the aspiration. If you can’t make it to the top, then you might go to Australia as a backup choice. It’s a not a place to make money, but a place to settle if you have made money somewhere else and can take advantage of its generous welfare system.

      • Yeah I’m fully aware of that dynamic which is why it’ll be interesting to watch how this plays out over time. I also find the pivot to other parts of Asia rather than the West interesting. I find the whole way in which this group of people approach the world fascinating. The intersection between hope, reality and delusion was interesting to discuss with middle class professionals when I lived in Beijing (I left 3 years ago so I’m sure attitudes are changing), especially when you’d drill down into the push pull factors of what they were trying to achieve. But if this group is undergoing a major change in perception them it’ll have ramifications globally.

        • I think the potential curveball is if the CCP influence was to wane or eventually collapse, all those who have disproportionately benefited from their rule (i.e. CCP members) would likely try to flee China with their cash hoards.

        • Popcod, What do you think the Chinese middle class were/are hoping to achieve with the overseas study? A hedge, face with peers, a better opportunity than at home? The western middle class don’t feel the need to send their sons and daughters to foreign countries in any numbers.

    • Oh music to my ears….
      “Over the past a few years, my friends and I had wanted to sell properties in Shenzhen and buy in Australia and Canada, but now we are less eager,” she said.
      Shen, … “I still plan to send my two sons to study abroad in a few years”, but added that he would wait and see what the market is like for selling his Chinese assets and replacing them with overseas ones first.
      One can only hope there is a sliver of truth to this..

      • Heard there were a bunch of 2nd/3rd generation Australian Chinese going on Chinese social media spreading stories of Chinese getting racially abused/bashed etc in an effort to put off potential immigration. Not sure if the approach has worked, but think it would have put off a few.

  13. happy valleyMEMBER

    Has any MBer tried to use or used the Federal Government’s Energy Made Easy energy retailer/plan pricing comparison website for deciding on their electricity and/or gas supply contract renewals?

    It may be very good, but there seems to be too many plans to contend with – multiple retailers with multiple plans to choose from.

    It makes analysing mobile phone plans look as easy as falling off a log.

    I live in Sydney.

    Has any Sydney MBer found one or just a few retailers, as offering the best value here? If so, who are those retailers?

    In the final analysis, the Sydney retailers all seem to source their energy from the same distributors – Ausgrid for electricity and Jemena for gas – and thus the matter of the distributor is somewhat irrelevant?

    • The distribution company is a natural monopoly (only one set of pipes or poles and wires). The retailer purchases the electricity/gas on the market which is made up of various generators and re-sells it to you. It is delivered through the pipes/wires. Yes, the distributor is irrelevant to your retail market choice.

      Electricity retailers are like banks, they use a very large number of offers to bamboozle you with complexity. It fools you into thinking there is actually choice. Just don’t get ripped off by paying the ‘standing tariff’.

      • Jevons ghostMEMBER

        Now here’s a thought. Energy Straya is Hong Kong – owned.
        PRC apparently preparing to sort out Hong Kong.
        Lots of Strayans are “with” Energy Straya. What should they do now?

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          And off memory, CitiPower and Powercorp (Vic) and ETSA (SA) are also partly owned by Hong Kong interests? And also Alinta (WA)? The noose tightens?

        • That is right. We have spent years pretending that HK was not China and we could treat it the same as any other country for foreign investment purposes. That fantasy is now exposed as a sham.

          As I understand it Powershop is owned by the NZ government… Also big investors in wind farms if renewable are of interest to you.

  14. GunnamattaMEMBER

    A genuine question for those with school aged kids…..

    What is everyones experience with remote learning?

    Students less distracted and do better work remotely, teachers say

    My experience has been precisely this. My 13 year old son does his work, does it with less stuffing around and socialising bullshido, and I understand is doing a lot more of it when he does his school work remotely. I was chatting with his maths teacher the other day and he was telling me similar is his experience – he has lots of kids doing their work and pretty switched on when they are in touch.

    If my experience is somehow common, then I would think use of remote/web based schooling may be a far bigger component of education looking ahead.

    • I have one in Year 6, and one in Year 5. It is working well remotely. Both have own laptops and good at using them. But a balance of face to face and remote is probably ideal. Only problem is they finish the work quickly with less distractions at home, then hop onto computer games.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Only problem is they finish the work quickly with less distractions at home, then hop onto computer games.

        Exactly what my son does. But he for sure is doing all the work.

    • High school from years 8-10 in Australia is such a disaster that just about any other activity would be more educational. It’s a particular trap for boys, because they quickly get bored with stuff they can’t see the point in – and then they get hit over the head with the last two years which are extremely demanding, but they have no knowledge or study/learning skills. It is an outrageously bad system.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Interesting observation. I have a mate who is a teacher at Kardinia College in Geelong (English, History) and he observed that he thought there would be some very very noticeable ‘improved’ outcomes for boys in classes he was familiar with, and went to far as to suggest that the home school COV19 experience would lead to a downturn in marks for many girls but an improvement for meany boys. In particular he noted the tendency for boys to become bored and switch off in class (and stuff around one way or another) whereas while they are home, they knock over the work quick and then play computer games. But his experience, like mine, is that the boys are doing the work.

        • I reckon you’re far better off listening to your mate than some dodgy cranky pri!ck on the internet. Having said that, I would go for short focussed sessions interspersed with bursts of high physical activity, and link that to some sort of trivial awards system.

    • I have a daughter in year 12 and another in Year 7.
      I really hate this for the year 12 daughter she feels so cheated, her time to rule the playground and there’s school kind of thing. She also wants a really high Atar and this remote learning BS is just isn’t delivering, it’s just so not for her
      The year 7 girl loving all the side-channel socializing Zoom school on the laptop but Snapchat/Instagram on the phone, no prizes for knowing which one gets the most attention.
      As far as Learning stuff is concerned, I’m not sure that this is the function / purpose of modern day Aussie high schools. I think kids learn far more at home then they ever will at school

    • My 8 year old son gets through the work sent by the teacher in about 1 hour. We’ve been going to the park everyday for exercise, he’s learned Roman numerals, how to use appliances in the house, finally how to tie his bloody shoe laces, worked on his piano …the list goes on. School is a HUUUGE waste of time (and I say that as a teacher myself). I am livid that BereJEKLLYian has ordered kids back to school. Phased return my as#. We went from one day (which my son didn’t do) to 5!.WTF!? My wife and I have been steadfast in our determination to not be like every other moron in the country and borrow a million bucks for some clapped out old bomb shelter. Hence we don’t need the child minding service that school has become. How dare they treat the most defenceless members of our society…kids, like bloody guinea pigs! If my son gets sick, …well you’ll see me on the news that night.

    • We’ve really enjoyed the home school thing. Have year 6, 4 & year 2. The year 2 (boy) was a fight at times but same as above – they have been focused and we’ve done a bit extra like old school times table rote learning, juggling soccer balls and using tools etc (the 2 older girls loved this).
      However I would say the folk on MB are outliers. From what I can gather only about 1/3 of the kids at our school have active encouragement by parent(s) and submit all their work. For many parents school is really child care so both parents can focus on getting that next Euro car or holiday. That’s why most seem to be stoked school is back on.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      It is important that kids be at school so that they can learn the right way to think to fit into our society. This is extra important for those types of kids that get bullied. They need their poor social skills beaten into shape so that by the time they become adults at least some of them have learned to fit in even if it was the hard way.

    • I imagine the lockdown has been hell for those with kids with significant behavioural disturbances, and boredom and lack of personal interactions are likely to hit the more social kids. Future shut-ins will probably be fine, as would children able to self occupy and do things with limited supervision – although I expect the latter would probably do well under any arrangement.

    • Argh – did quite a long response and it got moderated for some reason.

      The short summary is that the last 8 weeks of home school (really glorified homework, kids in yr 5,6 and 10) has made me realise how stupid and lazy my kids are.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      I would have thought the socialising aspect of school is at least as important as the formal education.

    • Quite an interesting thread for a high school teacher to read like myself. A couple of things I would add in to this – we as teachers were told that during this covid-19 shutdown period to give less work and to reduce the pace of the work than if we were at school. Because of this I’m at least a week behind schedule for most of my classes. Second, I teach at a girls’ school and they have come back knowing less than they would if they had been at school – quite noticeably so. Friends at other schools that are co-ed are saying the same. Kids think they know what they are doing but when tested on it, they know less than they should. I’m not sure that the current homeschooling phase should inform weather we do remote schooling in the future, because we were instructed to not work at full capacity (as an example, we were told to give about 150 mins a week of Maths for a Year 9 student, but if they are at school, they would be given 250 – 300 mins a week of Maths, which includes homework). Also, the school as a whole saw a real drop in engagement from kids from when remote learning started in term 1 and when it started again in term 2. Having said all that, I think that there should be some real time and money invested in looking at a 4 day face-to-face and 1 day online schooling week, which gives students the opportunity to develop their self-management skills by providing a day a week where they are not being herded according to bells, teachers etc.

      • Thanks Barry – I agree with your views on investigating a small amount of non face to face. Unfortunately I think for those kids unfortunate enough to have parents who are disengaged or those parents who have kids with special needs the home schooling is not practical.

        FWIW I think one of the great things to come out of this is an appreciation of the wonderful, tough and under appreciated job teachers do.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Thanks for the reply Barry thats good knowledge, cheers.

        On the drop in engagement that was something I was wondering about. I have sort of felt that there was a drop in focus on school, but I have been checking and going over what he is doing – and he has been doing all he is told (and doing it properly). His focus (IMO) has been on maximising his game time. On the socialising end of things he is online with his school mates (the ones he is doing classes with) but he is also online with other ‘game’ mates (who are also home from school, and in a like situation) , so he is doing a fair bit of interacting but its online.

        • The other thing I would say is that there has been a full range of responses to remote schooling. Some loved it, were engaged, could keep routines and are now in mourning that it is gone. Others said that they were unable to stay focused at home and were only able to do a fraction of what was given. Sounds like your son was closer to the engaged end of the spectrum, which is why your experience of it was so positive. One thing I should say is that I work in a high end private school so there are few home problems and getting hands on technology.

          • It is worth mentioning that not everyone has the same home life and this is amplified if they are forced to “enjoy” this aspect of their life 24/7.
            My daughter had no idea that some of her friends shared a room with two siblings, learning on line was apparently absolute chaos for these girls. Others didn’t have NBN at home and made do with some combination of pre-paid phone plans and what they could leach standing outside the library (or in one case learning in a neighbors back yard)
            So lets not assume that everyone has access to the same technology / economic resources. In this sense Public schools (and the environment that they provide and create) are a leveling ground which seeks to remove privilege from the educational outcome equation.
            But lets also be honest who doesn’t enjoy privilege!
            Both my girls attend Public high schools, but to be completely honest both girls attend the same Selective High school, hardly a place where they’d meet or learn to assimilate with average Aussies.
            Gawd only knows what online learning is like at one of those Southwest Sydney horror schools like Macquarie Fields, I hear it only gets worse if you venture north to an under performing Central coast high school like Toronto or Belmont.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        How do you think it compares to dedicated distance education (School of the Air) ?

        My mum was a teacher for a bit over forty years and spent nearly the last ten with SoA. She reckoned it didn’t really have any negative impacts from an outcomes perspective, though she did need to adjust her methods a bit and always lamented not being able to write/draw on the blackboard (that should date it appropriately) to help explain things.

        I imagine (hope!) things are a bit different these days, even though I imagine many of those remote students probably don’t have particularly good internet connectivity.

        • This is just an opinion, but kids taught by the School of the Air tend to be extremely remote and are accustomed to learning in isolation, using the internet from a young age. Today’s current students have almost no experience of remote learning and it is not a way of life. The last 7 weeks was largely enhanced by the novelty of it all – I’m not sure how it would go if it turned into 6 months etc.
          In addition, kids in cities are not isolated. They can go to a friend’s place or go to the local shops with friends within 10 minutes, which would be a massive distraction. The last thing is that remote learning required much more engagement from parents to ensure the kids were doing what they needed to do (I know this all too well, looking after my kids school work while doing online zoom lessons for my students for approx. 3 hours a day). After just 6 school weeks of needing to be more engaged, many, many parents have had enough and just want the teacher to look after it. We teachers had to surrender control to the parents and the parents couldn’t wait to give it back!

    • My 17 yr old son had no issues with online learning. The ACT Government did a pretty good job overall unlike friends with kids in private schools who said the online learning as a joke. “What the hell are we paying big fees for?” I can see a mix of online learning and teacher lead classes in the future. Gungahlin College is already at capacity, has been pretty much since it opened yet they keep cramming more and more houses and units into Gungahlin. Online learning could alleviate some of the capacity issues especially now social distancing measures are in place.

  15. happy valleyMEMBER

    The happy-clappy preacher PM is out on the Eden-Monaro by-election hustings today, weaving his “magic”.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        I’m all for it. The thought of being able to control the level of compliance and willingness to your own needs is absolutely thrilling. The one thing I hate about women is them being women. I love it too. So it’s a dream to be able to DJ the right mix of chickness.

        “Tonight I want to give it to you in the pooper”… “Err, no way, that’s disgusting”… “But I will love you more for it”… “Aww, ok, hammer away and really enjoy yourself my main stud…”

        Blissful negotiations that will always go your way, unless you’re some sort of weirdo that loves being rejected but you can program that too if you really want.

  16. Very high density, the oldest population in the world, 300k visitors from China in 2 weeks of Feb, no lockdowns, open restaurants, bars, …, no contact tracing, no tracking, very few tests, …

    Oh there must be millions of dead by now?
    In fact, … almost as few deaths as in Australia that has very low density, much younger population, summer, closed borders, strict measures, high level of testing tracing and tracking, ….

    Would love to see a scientist with evidence showing our measures did anything but destroyed future of our kids and ruined public health

    • ImTheOnlyPersonHereWhoIsntADoctor

      So, you’re saying that, for some undetermined reason, Japan has an exceptionally low infection rate and we mimic that. That’s some real genius thinkin’ there, champ.

      • Take a look at severe lockdown smaller Scotland versus minimal restrictions bigger Sweden.

        Similar number of deaths.

        • ImTheOnlyPersonHereWhoIsntADoctor

          Brilliant! Take a look at heavy lockdown Australia and note the very low mortality. Thanks for trying though.

          • Number of new cases in Australia dropped by 80% before lockdowns had any chance to show up in the data. Just 6 days (single incubation period) after lockdown introduction, we had new cases down by 80% from the peak. Two weeks after lockdowns ( delay scientists expect to start showing results) we had cases down by 90%
            Basically our epidemic was over before lockdownscould even had a chance to do something

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Well, if that’s correct, it’s obvious in’it.

            The infectious virus that everyone was going to catch anyway so no point in locking down, stopped being infectious just before Australia elected to lockdown (for no reason).

            The virus probably realised it was in Australia and that it should deactivate itself as there was no point in trying to take on the challenge of attempting to devalue the property market here.

          • ImTheOnlyPersonHereWhoIsntADoctor

            You’re including cruise ship and imported cases in your data, which were clearly the majority of cases at that point in time. Your history revisionism is tiresome.

          • @wilbur
            Virus didn’t spread mucj pr at all in Australia even very early before anyone started paying any attention. Reasons for that could be various but at that statge measures or changed behaviour weren’t definately. In second week of March high risk elderly Australians were still going onto cruises

            Also everyone will eventually get this virus. It will stay with us forever like other common cold viruses

          • Why would people arriving by planes be included and cruise not?
            If you are not counting cruise ship cases than our epidemic peacked well before any government measures beside border closure

      • What I’m saying is that there is something else at work and not lockdowns. We would have had almoat the same results of the epidemic even if we didn’t close the pubs and restaurants.
        In fact, if we just implemented very few early measures like banning cruise ships we would have had less than half of cases and deaths.
        90% of all deaths in Australia are related to cruise ships and aged care facilities. Simple measures like banning cruises and controlling access to aged carr would have saved more lives than measures that useless destroyed our economy

        • SweeperMEMBER

          You’re ignoring the public’s autonomous response to the virus. ie. how they would act in the absence of official lockdown or once official lockdown has ended. And the evidence says that they act cautiously largely stay at home, wash hands etc.
          similar to the way an MMTer almost always ignores the money demand side of the equation. The CB can create unlimited money ergo it’s a viable policy at any interest rate.
          Social distancing has been effective in large part because much of it has been autonomous.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Mate, I can understand why you might think that’s what the population did voluntarily, but, is there any chance you just don’t get out much?

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Not really. I prefer being outdoors and didn’t enjoy the lockdown at all.
            Success of the lockdown always depended on the public’s buy in. eg. In a liberal democracy you can’t realistically police every social gathering.
            Why is it hard to believe people are worried about getting a virus and would have social distanced anyway, employers/hospitals are worried about liability etc.
            Realistically if there was no official lockdown it probably would have led to an even larger autonomous response.

          • It all put in context and I suggest you look at the Hudson link below, reality vs some wonky model.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            imo arguing people would have acted as per normal in the absence of official lockdown reveals a much greater lack of awareness of how society works. eg. something you would expect from the IPA or the Australian
            Things probably would have been worse. For the economy as well, because without the official lockdown there would be no justification for stimulus, job-keeper etc. even though you’d get the same collapse in output.

          • I’m not ignoring public response, in fact I’m pointing out that lockdowns were unnecessary because public responded much before any measures. In fact, based on data it looks like public was practicing good level of social distancing even at the time when our leader was irresponsibly inviting people to go to footy games.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            Look at the record of events:
            lots of offices told people to work from home before the lockdown
            public didn’t want the grand prix to go ahead
            public wanted international flights suspended before lockdowns
            public thought ScoMo was being blasé before lockdowns
            the economy & markets started tanking before the lockdown.
            people avoided public transport even though it was still running
            some cafés and restaurants closed before lockdowns due to lack of customers
            aged care facilities still refused visitors even when all levels of government were demanding they reopen
            most employers treated social distancing guidelines as bare minimum
            polls say the public supports the lockdown.

            ie. there is an autonomous response. So the evil government lockdown v business as usual thing is just a fairy-tale choice which doesn’t tie back to the real world.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            whether it was made official or not, do you acknowledge that social distancing has worked and most likely if it wasn’t made official the economic shock would have been worse because there would then have been no justification for stimulus and short term welfare?

          • Voluntary social distancing did made a difference although it wasn’t manin reason for low virus spread (virus was not spreading even before public started reaxting in mid march). And governement response is based on economic conditions not measures so there is no reason for it to be different without lockdowns.

          • SweeperMEMBER

            not at all.
            if there was no official lockdown, then the government wouldn’t be responsible for shutting down part of the economy, so wouldn’t be pressured or feel the need to rollout the temporary measures. It would just be a private sector / external shock which should be left to market forces with a few interest rate cuts and maybe some tax cuts as well.

    • bzunicaMEMBER

      What I love is the statistic that Australia’s mitigation measures have been so effective as to be 99.8% – 99.93% (102/50000 or 102/150000) effective based on the number possible in March (which referenced the Imperial College model). I mean really, how good is Australia!
      Obviously, this is not correct, so what has happened here? My best guess is one of two things
      1. The virus is much less deadly than the model believes, making the model wildly inaccurate. I think this is the case based on the wildly inaccurate projections for other countries.
      2. We really haven’t had the virus here yet and our wave of infection may come later.

      • It has been proven by many serious studies so far that virus is way less deadly (at least an order of magnitude) than those models assumed.

    • Did you read the article? It spoke of high rates of self isolation and the voluntary practice of social distancing. It also highlights Japan’s focused testing. Japan’s response was very cluster based as opposed to broad. Japan had a natural cultural advantage and applied a method that seems to have worked for it. There is also the thought that the strain of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan may not be as virulent as the one that swept through Europe.

      Finding an instance of a country with fewer than expected cases and fatalities occurred when a broad and extremely cautious approach was not adopted does not prove that all countries that were extremely cautious did the wrong thing. Anyone arguing for strict measures could just throw up Italy, Spain, France, New York, Iran, Wuhan, Brazil, and the UK. Given our culture is closer to those than to to Japan’s I’d support the introduction of rules to minimize the likelihood of an outbreak over the reliance of the individual to behave in a thoughtful and considerate manner.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        Exactly. The laissez faire case relies on this false choice of official lockdown v business as usual. In reality there is no business as usual scenario because much of the response was autonomous with the politicians merely reacting to pressure in many cases.
        eg. Remember when Dan Andrews wanted to go ahead with the Grand Prix and public opinion was against.
        In reality a business as usual approach would have led to an even greater autonomous & delayed official response
        Laissez faire always ends in greater intervention.

        • None ever argued we shouldn’t have done anything. My point is that unnecessary and late measures only cuased damage (both economic and public health) while not helping the case.
          Beside higher than necessary unemplyment and poverty we’ll also see higher death rates from cancer and other health issues that got ignored due to the measures. Should I mention mental health issues caused by measures …

          • SweeperMEMBER

            damage has been caused by the pandemic and limited by the governments response.

          • Most of damage has been done by media, than government than virus at the end
            And virus wasn’t much worse than flu even in placed hit hard like NYC or Lombardy

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Good points. Re the last one, perhaps there’s a toilet roll (number of) per capita hording tally for the most affected countries that we could do one of those superb dot plots against to see if there’s a correlation.

        Though I reckon for Australia it’ll be: Maximum dcikhead for X and Minimum infections for Y, so I can’t quite see what we can do with that data, yet.

      • Your argument is exactly reinforcing my claim that lockdowns were completely unnecessary in Australia. When NSW and VIC introduced lockdowns on 31/03-1/04 curve was flattening already and number of cases was falling for almost week already. Simply there was no any justification for lockdowns based on any science nor any data. It was simply bad political decision (don’t want to go into discussion if it was intentional overreaction)

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      In all fairness, the Japs don’t touch in any shape or form. Many don’t even have relations anymore. Where as the Italians and Spanish slobber all over each other day in day out and love to root. Americans root strangers as they walk down the street. Thais, even though their chicks are great roots, don’t touch much normally. They do a pray bow thing. So they’re low too.

      • How abaut differences between New Yorkers and Californians? Who huggs more?
        How about southern Italians vs northern? Southern Italians are much more what you describe… they, on south, call italians from north “germans” because they are so much colder and distant
        Based on those arguments Napoli should have seen tens of thousands of dead not just few hundred. In southern parts of Italy there was almost no epidemic, even in Rome

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Jesus Christ months of scrolling past all this shyt has given me rsi in da thumb

  17. For that warm fuzzy Sunday evening feeling …

    US coronavirus ‘bailout’ scam is $6 trillion giveaway to Wall St – Economist Michael Hudson explains

    •Apr 20, 2020

    Moderate Rebels

    Facing the Covid-19 pandemic, the US Congress rammed through the CARES Act — which economist Michael Hudson explains is not a “bailout” but a massive, $6 trillion giveaway to Wall Street, banks, large corporations, and stockholders.

    Max Blumenthal and Ben Norton discuss the enormous financial scam with Hudson, who reveals how the economy actually works, with the Federal Reserve printing money so rich elites don’t lose their investments.

  18. Went to Chermside monstrous shopping complex today. Haven’t been in years and reckon it’s probably triple the size with probably only double the shops, what a waste of space.

    Main point of the post was the quality of those frequenting the place – I haven’t seen that many wanna be gangsters since attending a Bandidos tattoo show.

    It was ridiculous, even the new australians were more presentable and if forced to choose I’d hang out with them. What the hell happened to North Brisbane? It looks like a mix of 90’s Logan and present day Surfers Paradise, so many bum bags, gold chains and gaudy outfits and face tattoos. Pure gronks.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      LOL. Did you tell any of them to keep off the grass? At any point was there raised arm and fist shaking? 😉

      It’s not just North side. CBD for the last two weeks too.

      I reckon there’s been some general parole conditions changes. Don’t worry. Things will return to normal when schools go back and they don’t get up until around the time their girlfriends’ schools let out.

    • Ha, what the hell happened to North Brisbane. The vast majority north of say Newmarket has been trash for at least a couple of decades.

  19. Banana ManMEMBER

    How’s this for the good feels.. Phoned up uncle, didn’t hit him um for cash but a loan on some phyz. He was stoked, i was stoked. Building a house for my folks who played hard but didn’t have political connections to keep the compounding. As long as everyone is playing the game and all ends well i’m happy I guess in a cranky kind of a way.

  20. Untersberg Mountain

    Alveolar capillary microvascular thrombi are not a pre-requisite for the severe lung injury in COVID19, but are a clear step in the wrong direction if allowed to be formed.

    A few red faces round these parts after reading this, I would reckon. But wait, there’s more:

    Early endothelial stabilization, before hypoxia sets in, is key to prevent SARS-CoV-2 induced, excess Angiotensin II mediated, intense alveolar capillary vasoconstriction as well as the concomitant pro-inflammatory, pro-thrombotic endothelial milieu, all of which form the basis of lung
    injury in COVID19.

    Indeed. Post your retractions below …

  21. Scores of Chinese students lose money after property agency disappears

    A large group of overseas students – likely more than 150 people – and some local landlords who rented their properties via Homplus have lost money to the company, which last month applied to deregister itself and all but disappeared. The company ran a property leasing website, Jia1hao, which targeted overseas students coming to live in Melbourne. It leased dozens of apartments in Melbourne’s CBD, Docklands and West Melbourne, and then made money by sub-leasing these properties to Chinese citizens coming to the city to study.

  22. Has anyone mucked about on Nation States?
    I heard an interview with Max Barry, who built the game around his book ‘Jennifer Government’, on the radio.
    You get to build countries.
    The Holy Yellow Generalit of Nadir Dystopia (Iron Fist Consumerists) is a good example of the mischief that can be had.