Sunday Supplement: 29 March, 2020

Tom Roberts, Shearing the Rams, 1890, National Gallery of Victoria

 

Macro & Markets

 

Asia

 

Americas

 

Europe

 

Terra Incognita

 

…and furthermore…

 

…and coronavirus (Covid19, Wuhan Flu)…

 

 

 

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

  1. Gunna, could I just say.

    I been following Macrobusiness without being a member for about 3 years.
    I reckon Ive learned a lot off the links you have provided – some I get a lot I dont
    And I reckon that the painting that makes it to getting a gong on the weekend links or sunday supplement is a good one, and I have learned what I like from art – Im a philstine when it comes to art. But Ive learned a lot from the pics you put up.

    Thank you.

    The reason I say this is because this one is the first one I reckon i knew beforehand. And I am inebriated

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      That shearer breaking his back actually has 3 negatively geared IP’s in Townsville

    • Why do they let people comment who are not members? Really annoys me and I don’t know why.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Been a member since dot, but I think non members don’t get to comment on all posts, just some.
          Wlibur can correct me.

          • China PlateMEMBER

            2 comments per non customer per thread just like TP purchases. Limit them up and they pay up…well one can hope

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            You were spot on further up boom, non members can only comment on the unlocked articles. Can’t see comments on locked articles either.

      • factory worker

        It is worth remembering that some of the people that comment here can’t ever risk having their comments attributed to them. Leaving a traceable paper-trail is the political equivalent to putting your own head in the noose and then wondering what the lever on the side does, oh lets just play with it for fun.
        Not everyone is free to actually say what the feel and they’re certainly not free to associate morality/legality with any aspect of their choices or comments or opinions. (look at what happened to Israel Folau, now imagine that his opinion actually counted, maybe then you will see the predicament that many would be members find themselves in)

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Partly as when MB started (it was a merging of several individual blogs and websites) it was a free site and they were keen to keep it that way – they did not want to limit this information to just memebers. But of course the platform grew and went from being a hobby on the side to a full time gig and need much better IT infrastructure and support which was expensive. They tried various ways to fund the operation and eventually settled into the membership set up we have today.

        I think allowing folks to comment (members or not) is a good thing. As factory worker stated – some of them have interesting stories they are not authorised to publicly tell.

      • I’ve definitely benefited from non-members comments so want those to continue. A post count and the ability to hide/grey out comments from selected users would be a welcome addition however.

      • Jesus there are much more worriesome things happening in the world

        Non members commenting on a blog post is such a lower order issue

    • I only wish I could sub with an anonymous paper trail.

      I don’t like my thoughts online able to be easily tied to me.

    • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

      Maybe the plebs in power will buy back the farm instead of letting the nation rot. I know, fat chance!

      • The plebs in power have companies in the Cayman Isands and bank accounts in Switzerland which confirm: ‘fat chance’

  2. 80% of virus tests ‘donated’ by China to Czechs are faulty

    the quick tests Spain purchased from China only have a sensibility of 30%

    Thanks China!

    Get the factories out of there. FFS.

    • Only if the virus particles happen to fall in a pattern we recognize as ‘lettering’ and spells ‘Positive’ … apparently there’s quite a few ‘potato’ or ‘cow’ test results…

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Laughter is good medicine thanks.
        Early morn ride rain/cancelled so did a short one by self after.

    • fvkn. No wonder i read articles where it said that Chinese docs were finding that you had to test people 3 or 4 times before they tested positive. Even with all other symptoms, incl pneumonia! 3 to 4 times brings it to the odds required for an accurate test based on 30% accuracy rate.

    • Scotty from Marketing has been snapping up those tests because they are on sale now and lo and behold Australias infection rate is falling!

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Every time I look at that painting I’m drawn to the kid looking over like she spotted the bloke with a camera. There’s lots going on but there’s life and animation in that kid.

  4. So now we are a few weeks to Global COVID any ideas on the “black swan” events we’ll see by the end on 2020?

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      massive backlash against chyna, I am seeing it already, and it actually started before the Chinese plague

      • Absolute BeachMEMBER

        I agree. Much pushback now. I’m looking to get my electronic components elsewhere if possible. If not possible now, will be pondering manufacturing here with crowd funding and help from my customer base.

        • Hit me up for a grand if serious, and I’m still employed, and not dead.

          What about pots, caps and wiring for guitars?

          • Absolute BeachMEMBER

            Thanks mate. And yes I’m serious. I currently get my PCB’s loaded on a SMT line in Melbourne. But there are apparently no actual volume PCB makers left in Oz. When I started in 1995 there were several but all the usual pressures forced them to outsource to our’ new overlords. But at AUD55 or less (maybe) it may be viable to export again and is the logical low hanging fruit. My brother has the capacity to make them in small batches at the RMIT and others can as well. So the only barriers are some capital and a market. And there are plenty of smaller Oz electronic manufacturers who would be onboard if the supply chain was better guaranteed. I nearly ran out of stock in Feb when the WuFlu had shut down factories over there…
            Re. guitar amp components, I’m not an electronics guy so won’t comment but did buy a Fender valve amp for my son’s 21st. It cost more than a kidney so the margins must be good if you get a brand name going…..and Oz made brands will attract a premium when this WuFlu thing is in the rear view mirror.
            I’ll keep you in mind…

        • Would love to help Australian manufacturing however I can, even in a small way.

          I was horrified when they let cars go, for all the reasons discussed here.

          • Absolute BeachMEMBER

            Cool. I’ll add you to my list of potential helpers. And yes, devastated when the vehicle industry shut down. I approached the company that was briefly looking at purchasing some of the facilities in Geelong and ended up in conversation with the GM. They were looking at manufacturing their transmissions that had a solid international market. I had ideas to expand into some other niche markets and the guy was keen. But at the time (from memory..) the AUD was at parity wth the US so that was never going to work.
            For what it’s worth, my Dad worked at the RMIT has entire working life. In communication engineering. Started out sweeping floors and ended up lecturing and lab manager. He knew more about microelectronics than the professors. In the 1970’s he built our first colour TV from an old Astor. He imported the screen from Philips in Holland and gradually added the colours so by about 1975 or maybe 1976 I watched cricket in colour for the first time. He and his team built an ion implanter to make thin film stuff and they were world leaders in a few areas. Believe it or not, my brother is 52 and also worked there his entire working life….same building. Which is crazy….
            Like I said, I’m not an electronics guy but have been manufacturing for 25 years here in Oz. Now in FNQ and Burleigh Heads before. But I sell my stuff world wide with large fleet buyers being a major target. I’ve got Distributors in a few places internationally and make a living from making stuff. And I’m just a dumb Aussie who lives in a regional area. So Harold, if I can do it, anybody can. Now is the time- and with a little help from each other it will happen.

          • I did rmit comm eng in the years up to around 1995. Did a masters by research in rf electronics. I still make prototype pcbs with my etching tank at a farm machinery manufacturer.

          • Covid – same here. Same degree , 2000 alumni. Cannot do that degree anymore. Did you have mark Gregory ? What about the tutor with s87 student number, African bloke I think

          • I never had mark gregory for lectures. I have spoken to him while i was there. Masters took 3 yrs, and my 4th year of undergrad was at keatings recession we had to have. Manufacturing was in major decline even then, and even when i was at high school. I remember old hunchback don matheson (taught rf stuff), and fred paine (taught analog electronics), and alan bradley (taught dsp, and head of department), and james scott (taught microwave, and is current head). Can’t remember other names atm. One thing i clearly remember was that everyone was saying analog was dead and so they were all doing the digital electives. I hated digital, just wasn’t excited by it, and was the only guy heavily into analog there. Eventually i got excited by simulating analog circuits on the pc and got interested in programming and embedded stuff. Now I’m writing c tool chains ffs 😉 (and still doing analog hardware)
            Think i had an s87 student number and i did do tutoring, but I’m just an it’s ok to be white guy. Can’t remember any Africans.

          • Absolute BeachMEMBER

            Good.
            And just so you know- what I’ve done has been hard so I not saying making electronics here is easy. No rainbows with pots of gold. No free lunches. And I’ve never received a cent from .gov and only ever borrowed some small $$$ from my parents in the early days when I was learning (and ucking up). And I’m working today. Gods day of rest so yet more proof I’m just a dumb Aussie.
            But this is the perfect time for the following reasons: there will be lots of highly skilled blokes around without enough work- like guys who do design and coding. Just like post GFC and the 1990’s recession. The labour market in general will cop a pasting so wages will be lower. AND the rents and stupid property prices will get more rational so paying lower wages will not make me a mongrel. That’s half the reason I run my manufacturing here. Plenty of other inputs will be lower- like marketing costs. At present, I’m doing lots of TV cos the elephants have left the room. So I’m getting lots of love from the sales reps…
            Add in some anti-Chyna sentiment, some pro-nationalist feelings (thanks Pauline….although she’s not my type..). And maybe the next project might be an amp and could be called the Haroldus Rapture. Cheers and Beers from FNQ

          • Know IdeaMEMBER

            The Haroldus Rapture? Not bad.

            Consider: the Haroldus conversion; the Haroldus Mouse; the Haroldus Comment; the Haroldus Whine (wine); the Haroldus Very Droll; and the Haroldus First.

        • for your plan to work Aus Gov need to provide protection for the industry. Otherwise it will be doomed and you are going to go bankrupt. AUD can appreciate real fast.
          H&H was talking about how Aus manufacturing will spring once AUD falls but I don’t buy it. As I said earlier, AUD can appreciate real fast and domestic products becomes too expensive. Aus Gov must decide which industries (besides mining and RE) will be critical for our existence and has to provide long term support by introducing tariffs on foreign producers.
          This way it will still allow competition (make sure those tariffs are not too high) and encourage innovation but it will prevent destruction of the domestic producers.
          This is why I hate FTAs they are fckd. Not one has been signed that benefited our manufacturers.

          • Absolute BeachMEMBER

            Hey Niko. And in a normal, rational world you are theoretically 100% correct. Yes, the concept of elasticity of demand in regard to final price should mean we could do it hard if the AUD re-values upwards. And yes, FTA are hardly helpful. And labour arbitrage will (in theory) drive businesses to make certain decisions like off-shoring. But this is neither a normal or rational world. The last 10 odd years has proven that.
            In my humble opinion, this world is neither rational nor are businesses stupid or static. For example, why didn’t I buy the Chyna made Fender copy? It was purely cos of the brand status for my son. And perception creates an insane amount of value in products. Stupid things like perceived scarcity is hard to explain in a rational world as well. Then there is that impossible to value concept of service and reputation.
            Plenty of Oz businesses made it through AUD1.05 or whatever. Even exporters and some thrived. And during each major blip plenty of firms that make stuff just got lean, and that deserves a full unpacking of how and why, but I’ve got stuff to do.
            Your comment in reference to bankruptcy is a big call. If I have zero debt, own all the stock and plant, pre-pay for all inputs including marketing, how can you go bankrupt? How do you do that and still scale a business? It just takes patience and humility. I’m thinking of the bloke who started Ikea as an example. From memory he drove an old Volvo…

          • AB – I really wish you all the success mate. For small boutique manufacturing your view is 100% correct but I was referring and thought you were about larger scale manufacturing. I think we are both right.
            I can’t see large scale manufacturing succeeding without having some form of protection. China is notorious when it comes to killing foreign manufacturing. Chinese manufactures get government support while selling their products at a loss until the kill off foreign competitors. And they’ve been very successful thanks to corrupt western politicians who looked the other way while their domestic industry was being slaughtered.

      • I’d have to say a backlash against China makes me smh! Who’s fukn responsible for China being the centre of manufacturing? Not the Chinese, but business who were all willing to sell themselves off to get a price advantage for a few months, until their competitors did likewise. Who else is responsible? Us, us consumers, if I had a $ for every european car owner who told me they bought imported because they were safer (lolol bs) I’d be richer that Gates. We have gone for the lowest priced item as well, regardless and when it bites us in the backside we blame EVERYONE else. Pathetic.

        I could never understand the rush to move production, eventually you all end up in the same place, with the same manufacturing price point.

        One point I have no sympathy for business either is lack of IP protection in China. Foreign business wanted unlimited access to China’s massively growing middle income pop and prostituted their IP for it. Those who whinge about China’s actions think about where our economy is re manufacturing where we have allowed global companies to do whatever they like, they gave them access and made them pay for it, good on them! If China had just allowed them to do business as usual as they have done the same as they have done everywhere else, how much control would China have over its economy? My bet is very little and global companies would have raped them like they have done elsewhere.

        • Absolute BeachMEMBER

          Bravo dennis. Especially the middle paragraph. Chase to the bottom only ever ends in one place. Just spoke to a mate who sold his business a year ago. He had a set territory and was effectively a rep for an Oz manufacturer. But self-managed therefore owned a business- I guess. Anyway, the people who bought him out just begged him to come back to work. They had lost 90% of his big clients because the service level dropped and the buyers went to the cheaper imported supplier…a copy made in Chyna. So my mate doesn’t need the bucks but is doing it to keep the volume up enough to keep the new owners viable. And yes, he will answer the phone at 8pm or during a Sunday roast if the customer needs advice. And you cannot put a price on that.
          PLEASE keep up the rage mate- and buy Oz made and complain if you can’t.

    • This IS the black swan. What happens from here is ‘global depression’ which will rumble on for years. Anyone expecting a quick recovery is a goose (to stick loosely with the ‘swan’ theme).

      Lots of money printing – MMT, UBI (with no committed end date), potential hot war, dog help us. Social unrest etc.

      Property market devastated as people try to ‘realise’ their wealth by turning IPs in to hard cash. Nationalisation of banks and other parts of the economic apparatus.

      • CoVid is not a black swan event. If anything, it’s shown the world to be woefully underprepared for a pandemic both in a national mobilisation effort and markets pricing in risk. The warning signs of a potential pandemic have been evident for years through Ebola, SARS and MERS yet we did nothing to prepare. Superbugs infect more than 2 million people per year and knock off 23k in the process yet we would not be prepared for a major superbug pandemic let alone a major outbreak.

        https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/46481-coronavirus-is-no-black-swan

          • I see. So Black Swans are basically a load of bollox. I mean what was the black swan associated with Lehman?

            If Covid-19 isn’t a Black Swan (and I’d argue the market didn’t see that coming – which is the definition of a BS) then there was definitely no black swan ahead of the GFC.

          • Dom, Black Swan events aren’t bollocks. If Germany decided to have a third crack at dominating Europe by launching an attack on France tomorrow, to me that would be a Black Swan event. The point that Nassim Taleb made was that BS events, like any observation, depends where you stood at the time. Was Lehman a BS event? The company maybe, the timing maybe but the event, not so sure. Who would have thought that bundling a bunch of low doc loans with an A grade credit rating would ever blow up? The third definition of a BS event is that in hindsight, it was probably a bad idea so why are they doing it again? To me, that’s why CoVid is not a BS event, we had warnings that Governments and markets failed to respond to.

            https://strategiccfo.com/black-swan-events/

    • Wonder if they start the day with Kombucha soy late and ethically sourced smashed avo on artisan sourdough and finish with a craft beer and lentil burger?

      • okradovicMEMBER

        Yum! Except for the soy – apart from disgusting taste, it turns boys into girls.

          • okradovicMEMBER

            Of course, I’m exaggerating. However there is enough concern over soy proteins that I think it is wise to avoid them. Why take the risk when there is a much better way to get quality protein from beef, pork and animals in general (especially bats – yes this is also a joke Swampy!). Fermented soy products are apparently OK and I love them: natto, tempeh, soy sauce. Tofu, soy milk and other soy protein containing products where the protein is in its natural form (ironically) not so much, it appears.

          • 0.8g protein per kg body weight
            1gm if athlete

            That comes from plants, easily

            Evidence lining up against animal protein

            I viewed your post as a request for information

  5. Haha! Subliminal messaging there. Painted just before the Great Depression of 1892-3. Wonder who is going to get fleeced this time around.

  6. All, letting you know that I have been informed by parents that some “Indian Nostradamus” astrologer dude had predicted sometime last year that Monday and Tuesday (31st March and 1 April) are bad days – don’t leave the house for anything.
    We were not planning to go anywhere next week anyway due to Wuflu, but just putting the word out there in case there is a huge coincidence of bad stuff out there and I feel terrible not telling people.
    Edit: Mind you, it only takes 362 astrologer dudes in a billion people there to predict that any 2 day stretch during a year is a bad couple of days to go out…. You only go looking for these people during times of anxiety and find them plenty!

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    More than the rams are going to be sheared in this sh1t show ……..speaking to one of my kids this avo ,,,,in tears
    Friends in great distress ..jobs lost ….promising businesses in deep trouble ….. even the parents going under …businesses sunk .., having to sell the house ….
    ….the pain hasn’t even begun ..,,,, this is the 30s in technicolor….or should an old chap shunt forward to ..live streaming …..

      • You’ll have to wait 6 months as the big 4 are giving people a 6 month repayment holiday.

        Banks and apra have also agreed not to call this a default, therefore no new capital required to be held by the banks.

        Move along nothing to see here yet.

        • You might have to wait until never because the govt will change the law and prevent bulk properties hitting the market. “No mark-to-market properties for you!”

          • Or something similar to black rock comes along and bulk buys them, mopping them up and letting them out at their prices…

          • The current rules, which means banks for-close on houses and then sell them for whatever they can as soon as they can (fire sale like), will get put aside. Selling large amounts of properties at distressed sale prices will cause the rest of the banks “assets” to be written down, causing other, much larger issues. The banks will lobby the government to do something about it. I think the govt will allow the RBA to buy these houses packaged in large lots at some lofty valuation and pretend they still have value. The RBA will keep these on the books until the “market” for them recovers.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          It’s not a holiday is it? Interest is still charged, at a higher penalty rate.
          Anyone know more?

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            Yes, interest is still charged for the ‘holiday’ period and added to the loan. The life of the loan is extended accordingly and the amount owning increases as well.

          • What the others said — interest is rolled up into capital outstanding i.e. the loan extends and you’ll owe more than when you began your holiday.

      • I’d rather we move to a model where large companies with a long term view owned all the rentals than “mon & dad” investors.

        • Large companies, “long term view” hahahahahaha
          Companies are willing to trash an entire brand in less time than a typical mom+dad hold an IP for short term profits.
          How is taking out loans to buy back shares looking as a long term business strategy?

          Mom+Dad have better long term incentives than the people running large public companies.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          There are pros and con. One of the ‘pros’ is a tenant won’t suddenly be kicked out because the landlords daughter left her dropkick boyfriend and suddenly needs a place to live. Corporate tend to provide security of tenure as they run it as a business rather than it being ‘their house’. On the other hand, big corporates are hardly known for their cuddly and flexible procedures outside of the rule book. If you have a good landlord and know them personally it makes things a lot easier to deal with (but it is luck of the draw).

      • From one of the links above…
        China’s cover-up of the outbreak of the disease cost other countries—even countries governed by more responsible leaders than the United States at the moment—precious days and weeks of preparation. Through December, Chinese police harassed and detained doctors who shared information about the virus. China had mapped the virus by January 2, 2020, but did not publish that information until January 9. As late as January 14, China insisted to the World Health Organization that the disease could not be spread from one human to another—information that the Chinese authorities knew to be false. It was the next day, January 15, that the first person is known to have departed Wuhan for the United States carrying the disease.

        • There is no doubt the CCP are filthy, conniving scumbags — anyone who likes the idea of an authoritarian state running a command economy needs their head read. The ‘miracle economy’ indeed.

    • If there is not a million similar stories over the next twelve months I’ll be shocked. It is terrible – particularly the impact on the children as all the parental fallout flows onto them.

  8. Neighbors next door: never lifted a finger around the place in years. Shįt laying in piles around the place, you get the idea. Suddenly, she’s oiling the fences, him and the kids cleaned up and took to the tip the multiple piles of crāp that were lying about.

    Eerily quiet the lot of them. I have a suspicion something has happened and they may need to sell in a hurry… what a shame! 🙄

    On The House estimates the place at 1.3 – 1.6 mil … looks like they paid 1.1 in 2014…. it’s not up for sale yet but hey, someone’s attempting to panic early. About as early as how the Australien government acted with the fires first and the Chinese plague second… too slow, chicken marengooo!

    • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

      I don;t know why or how, but I read your last line as “first fleet”, not “fires first” and thought that 230 years would be about the time it’ll take for Scotty from Marketing to get the message.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      For those who’ve been paying attention all that time a postcode would not only be slightly helpful but essential for the purposes of undoing the huge $1.3m in nowherseville where the grass is always green wtf? moment I just had.
      Thanks.

      • Well, they paid 1.1 … but … Yeah, I can’t see it either, actually, knowing them, they are absolutely deadbeats. Unless he got extremely lucky as a FIFO in the days… or really peddling some gear doing it … but they’re certainly not white collars … more like ‘no collars’

        • roylefamilyMEMBER

          So if they take a small haircut on the 1.1, and they may view that as not too bad, then the price drop from recent value is substantial.

      • Wellie wellie wellie… they really are cleaning up that stuff… big pile of burning wood and branches which accumulated over the years…. ain’t that interesting….

        • To be fair, I know of a lot of people (including myself) who’ve suddenly acquired an extraordinary motivation to effect repairs round the house, spruce up the yard and the garden beds etc … and I’m not selling. At least, that’s not the plan 😉

    • Someone ElseMEMBER

      This is mine! This is mine! This is alll mine! Except that. I don’t want that.

    • They can;t help it. Looking like doing something for the masses while not actually doing anything of substance is so ingrained, I suspect even if they want to truly help, force of habit will still mean they screw it up.

      • Yes, this is an example of how lack of intellectual honesty manifests itself. One may be aware of their own bullshit at first, but will sooner or later be taken in by their own bullshit. And just like that, one’s journey to the Dark Side is complete!!

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Had a boss once that always took the credit for my work saying he personally did it, he started to believe his own bull and one day his boss took him to task on it and he completely destroyed the machine. He went in to get sacked and came out with presents for all. Don’t blame him, blame the management for not recognizing his skills. If they put him in sales he would have been the best ever. Sad though, he loved engineering but was completely useless at it but was highly gifted elsewhere.

          • As they say, the chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.

          • Iron HorseMEMBER

            That’s kind of what happened with me, I finished my apprenticeship but wasn’t really much good on the tools. This was recognised by management and they put me in the office almost straight away which caused a hell of a hullabaloo on the factory floor!! Upshot is I worked my way through the ranks quite quickly and became GM about five years later.

  9. So no new migration is coming into Australia but there are houses being built. How long before we have an excess of houses?
    Also I would think that a lot of young people would be moving back in with parents.

    • Think of all the share houses and units the students were renting that are possibly sitting empty. How many students from China, Nepal, India actually made it back to start Uni?

    • anecdotally: lady in our block had all her kids (3) move out over the last 4yrs or so …. as of last week they were all back, plus a girlfriend or two.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Coastal hamlets full of oldies and AirBnB are toast. Geez, ain’t some egos about to be hurt by insulting offers.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      There are a lot more cars parked in our street. Looks like the kids are back, and will be staying for a while.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        A smattering of overnight cars in beach car parks will soon lead to turf wars when they become crowded.

    • Iron HorseMEMBER

      Bingo! Step right up and collect your prize…
      Our eldest daughter graced us with her presence this afternoon and advised us she will be moving back in for ‘..the immediate future…!

  10. Historians Politely Remind Nation To Check What’s Happened In Past Before Making Any Big Decisions

    https://www.theonion.com/historians-politely-remind-nation-to-check-whats-happen-1819572992

    “In the coming weeks and months, people will have to make some really important decisions about some really important issues,” Columbia University historian Douglas R. Collins said during a press conference, speaking very slowly and clearly so the nation could follow his words. “And one thing we can do, before making a choice that has permanent consequences for our entire civilization, is check real quick first to see if human beings have ever done anything like it previously, and see if turned out to be a good idea or not.”

    “It’s actually pretty simple: We just have to ask ourselves if people doing the same thing in the past caused something bad to happen,” Collins continued. “Did the thing we’re thinking of doing make people upset? Did it start a war? If it did, then we might want to think about not doing it.”

    • david collyerMEMBER

      Can we learn from history? Yes we can!

      Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics

      Abstract:

      How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.

      http://ssingh.ucdavis.edu/uploads/1/2/3/2/123250431/pandemics_jst_mar2020_.pdf

      • Yes, knowing history is one of the surest ways to be successful in investing.

        Then again, knowing history means adopting a long-term view, not something those in charge are good at.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Darth, not always the best to use history as a guide to investing as a preconceived negative outcome withholds bravado required to dive in, as has been done in the last 29 years resulting in the windfall bestowed on the naive investors. The crash we are having should have happened many years ago so the timing favored the uninitiated until now.
          Anecdotal , had a friend many many years who knew nothing about RE or investing, sold his unit just before a crash, procrastinated so long that when he finally bought it was on the bottom and bought a beachfront house in Curl Curl.
          In this case it was pure luck but an astute history guided buyer probably would have been more cautious.

          • History rarely repeats but rhymes. So it is important to grasp the underlying general trends over many decades or centuries and not be caught by snapshots. An economic cycle can be long – a commodity cycle is usually longer than 20 years. It helps to be approximately right and not precisely wrong.

      • Perhaps the way to fix thing is to start a war? Flatten everything and then start again? Worked for the Germans and the Japanese. Perhaps all those rusting nukes will come in handy after all. 😉

        • I’m sure some will be flexing & saying to bring it on. Those at the controlling end of our spectrum….. the same ones who currently have money & want to further increase their returns…….

      • Same, Same. People are going to people.
        Wherever resources are scarce, and multiple “tribes” are in close confines, conflict will result.
        Thank dog we have set up our cities multi culturally, and are now starting to create scarcity of essential goods. What could possibly go wrong?

        • I’m sure it’ll be fine – diversity is our ‘strength’. I know this because the liberal media told me so.

  11. Perfect time to legalize weed I reckon…if we’re all sitting at home for 6 months, might as well be baked.

    • CanuckDownUnder

      Back in Ontario they have classified weed as essential so shops are still open, word on the street is that panic buying has started along with the liquor stores as greater lockdown measures are coming soon.

    • I think it would be in the Govt’s interest to do that — right now there is an awful lot of anger and pent up frustration out there.

  12. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Wasn’t long ago in the bright sunlight of Strayan exceptionalism that our leaders were talking of …….the flower of Confidence

    So …….let’s all belt it out with all our hearts ……

    Oh Flower Of Condidence
    When will we see, yer like again
    That over paid for
    Yer wee bit hill and glen
    And paid yer money to
    That banker army
    And sent him homeward
    Rich again

    The hills are bare now
    And autumn leaves lie thick and still
    For that land is lost now
    Which those so dearly held
    And Can’t afford to pay now
    That banker army
    And sent them homeward
    Tae think again

    https://youtu.be/LBKnhdYIStQ

    ( no disrespect to our Scottish brothers your anthem is magnificent )

  13. https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/coronavirus-covid-19-as-a-young-doctor-in-icu-this-is-what-scar/12092832
    Sorry if this was posted on the weekend links but now I’m sh1tting myself
    Read it we’re fcked, esp based on what Dr hm523 was saying in Perth about being told to not provide medical care unless they’re (medical staff) protected (which is fair enough)
    No bubble helmets in oz so only intubated icu possible
    I really really really don’t want to get this thing now

    • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

      If you look at all the CV deaths …all are over 65.

      I think we have it covered and with lock down.. I think we will be luck to hit 50 deaths by Easter.

      • I hope you’re right, but I don’t think you are.

        For most people, the only way you can get tested with no epidemiological background is if you are an aged care resident or worker, in a boarding house, operational military or working/detained in a correctional or detention centre and there are two or more people sick with clinically consistent symptoms or if you are an individual admitted to hospital with symptoms.

        https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/coronavirus-update.aspx

        170 of the 212 confirmed cases in NSW yesterday were locally acquired meaning there are a lot very sick people in hospital at the moment. We’re pretty fvcked based on those numbers and the narrow scope of testing.

      • Wrong. This thing also kills unlucky but healthy 30 years olds with no underlying conditions.
        You need to find out what is going on in Europe right now and get out of the fantasy land you are living in.

    • I was concerned but not so much anymore.
      We are not Italy or New York or Paris. You can’t extrapolate what is going on there to here.
      I think the surge is going to fizzle here. The tyranny of distance and our relative isolation as well as our relative lack of high density living will spare us the worst I reckon.
      Once it is over though, the usual interests will re-surface and we will be back to 300,000 per year net positive overseas migration and knocking down a dozen houses to put up a 50 dwelling block of units.
      Any residual manufacturing will continue to be shipped offshore.
      I am quietly confident we will dodge the worst of this pandemic and learn absolutely nothing going forward.

  14. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Oh dear oh dear, only 2 house opens in Toowoomba today. How will the real estate agents cope? Maybe Toowoomba is in a different country, we’re not doing them any more. Isn’t the news good tonight, no breathless REA telling us the next boom is here!

    • yes, read the same earlier, what will happen …
      also Russians had expected crude to fall to $30, what will happen

        • Sales volumes would be through the floor so now trying to make up for it with absurd pricing. Scumbags. Supply/demand elastic band snapped!

          • It was never there… just like religion, we chose to believe in it because it kept us comfortable, even though there were plenty of signs to the contrary.

          • Prices are determined by refining capacity – not the price of oil. That said we should see decent prices at the pumps, on and off.

      • Sweat starts beading on the CEO’s upper lip, they estimate how long it can go on for, the business goes under along with others, someone buys it for 4 bucks, price goes up, they restart the business, oil prices go down………. rinse and repeat.
        Either that or Canada needs to maintain internal oil supply in times of pandemics and other crazy situations and the government props it up

    • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

      Has Scotty from Marketing bought some of it, like, now is not the time to rely on the ole US of A for our backup supplies in case of an emergency when, you know, it might happen sometime, like, soonish.

      • Perhaps we can ask everyone to go down to bunnings or supercheap and buy a dozen jerry cans each so we can store it out in the back shed?

        • Way ahead of you! Try nearly 1000l of diesel and 100 of petrol!

          While the retreads (!) were having punch-ups over toilet paper, we were quietly but determinately filling up barrels with slave-juice … at $1.25 a liter too…

          Toilet paper? Who needs that? Cut a hole in the seat of a chair and turn the sprinkler on!

          And who knows, a high-speed moving dirty freckle, just like a lock on a barn door, might deter the opportunistic pirate, whereas a clean, static one, is there for the plunder!

          • Someone ElseMEMBER

            I hope you’ve got preservatives or that diesel will get real chunky real quick, and that petrol won’t run real smooth either, assuming you can get it to start.

    • Indian Child Astrologer predicts every Indian abroad will have a sick relative that they have to go back to India to visit at the same time as a major festival happens, leaving employers around the world in the lurch. They also predict said Indians will return back to foreign lands asking for their jobs back to pay for sick family member’s medical costs.

    • Ummm, so a child astrological prodigy constitutes a Technology section story for the Indian Times?

      With that sterling brilliance India will have toilets for all their people maybe a year or two before the aimed for 2050!

  15. The Traveling Wilbur

    “And that’s not even swallowing it.”

    Not your standard day of ABC News channel broadcasting then.

  16. *doubletake* what? Myer ad for *next* season? Well, they’re keenly shooting for the stars…

  17. Argentina will need ‘substantial debt relief,’ says IMF chief

    Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries at the start of the 20th century. It’s an interesting case study in economic collapse and national decline.

    U.S. writer and low-immigration advocate Roy Beck has argued that mass immigration combined with a low domestic savings rate contributed to Argentina’s dramatic economic decline in the 20th century.

    Beck:

    “One need only look to Argentina this century to see the possible perils of waiting too long to scale back immigration. During the late twentieth century, most observers have tended to lump Argentina with other Latin American countries, their economies characterized by small economic elites, a vast class of impoverished citizens, and a weak middle class. The economist Carlos Diaz-Alejandro wrote that some modern commentators have even classified Argentina with less developed nations such as India and Nigeria. Such comparisons would have been thought ludicrous just eighty years ago, he said: “most economists writing during the first three decades of this century would have placed Argentina among the most advanced countries-with Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia…. Not only was per capita income high, but its growth was one of the highest in the world.”

    How did Argentina cease to be one of the world’s richest countries? That puzzle was the challenge for Allan M. Taylor, the Mellon Fellow at the Harvard Academy for International and
    Area Studies and the Department of Economics at Harvard. “More compelling and mysterious examples of failure than the ruination of Argentina are hard to imagine,” Taylor said in a 1992 paper published in the journal of Economic History. He concluded that a key factor for Argentina’s economic disintegration was the continuation of high European immigration to Argentina after the United States, Canada, and Australia began ending their eras of mass immigration early this century.

    No single explanation could account for such a sustained and deep economic demise, Taylor said. But a crucial factor surely was the country’s remarkably low savings rate, as compared to
    Australia, for example. Taylor linked the low savings rate to the high rate of immigration and the high fertility rate of the immigrants. Both immigration and fertility were higher than in Australia and contributed to Argentina having higher consumption and lower savings, Taylor found. The country made up the shortfall of capital for a while by heavier reliance on foreign capital. The differences in Argentina’s circumstances – with their roots in the difference in immigration rates – left the country much more vulnerable than the other advanced nations to international events. Argentina’s rich, middle-class economy was not able to survive.

    Although the United States was spared Argentina’s sad fate, it and other countries that had received large numbers of immigrants early in the century suffered more severe depressions in the 19305 than did European countries that had not received immigrants, according to Timothy Hatton and Jeffrey Williamson. If immigration to the United States had not dropped drastically, the U.S. Depression would have been far more severe, they maintain.

    Hatton and Williamson say that until recently many economists have greatly underestimated the power of immigration to slow down productivity, depress wages, and increase inequality.”

    https://www.lhpblog.com/pdf/Case-Against-Immigration.pdf

    Some lessons for contemporary Australia.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      We don’t seem to learn from lessons or mistakes…… first businesses re-opening will not be retail or some innovative, cool tech company that manufactures as well………….. they will be characterised by the sounds of the real estate brochure slapping the auctioneers hand as he/she opens the bidding.

      • I don’t have a problem with anyone having an Investment property or 2 or 100, IF they buy anything but their PPoR with their own money; 0% LVR. (That, will make them look at net rate of return!)
        Now you might say “Good idea. But….if the PPoR has a mortgage on it and ‘own money’ is used to buy a second property before paying off the mortgage, then isn’t that just as bad? And what about ‘all the kids’ getting a loan to buy their first home at 5!? etc” Could be. But there are limits to that. Unlike the bottomless pit of bank lending.

    • Argentina is a great example what elite (top end) corruption does to a country
      this has nothing to do with immigration, capitalism, socialism, any other ism

      it’s a clear case of corruption that started at the top and infected the entire society

      • factory worker

        I think Argentina is a really good example of a country that allowed itself to be subjugated.
        Ordinary everyday Argentinians imagined (for some unexplained reason) that they could individually and collectively profit from this subjugation, how does anyone profit from such a process? was never explained, never even outlined, yet they imagined they’d all wake up enriched by the process, thoughts like How? Why? and What on earth have you been smoking? were deliberately suppressed while the money flowed into the country. Then one day the direction of money flow changed.
        It was never clear why the money ever flowed into Argentina in the first place yet that direction of flow became closely associated with righteousness, only the nonbelievers ever questioned dogs will
        But Australians are a much smarter bunch they’d never be fooled by trinkets and shiny playthings.

        • Australians are smart at spotting fools (and calling them out); even smarter to avoid reflective surfaces when undertaking the fool-spotting.

    • I would add to that: a corrupt political establishment that kept borrowing large amounts of dollars and leeching it all away to Swiss bank accounts, ensuring sovereign default, in the meanwhile printing vast amounts of local currency to fund welfare payments and other state obligations, leading to high / hyper inflation. Oh and did I mention over-taxing the relatively small productive class such that they resorted to tax evasion schemes on a grand scale?

      Also, in keeping with South American tradition, ensuring the populace is educated in such a way as to limit the amount of independent thinking — wouldn’t want the sh1tizens to wake up to their true predicament now, would you. Keep ’em dumb and dependent, while the elites pillage the country’s resources. Noice!

      • Australia’s elite is perhaps not as corrupt but they are certainly more corrupt and self-serving compared to only a few decades ago. Some of the trends you describe above could also apply to Australia.

        • I should clarify: Australia’s elite is not as corrupt as Argentina’s but the elite in Australia has certainly become more corrupt and self-serving in recent decades. They’re moving in the direction of South America.

  18. CORONAVIRUS … CONSIDERING SOME OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS …

    “Unprecedented Decline” – The Collapse In World Trade Is A Once In A Generation Shock … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unprecedented-decline-world-trade-collapse-worst-generation

    Volkswagen Says COVID-19 Shutdown Costs Are “Acute Economic Risk” To The Company … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/volkswagen-says-covid-19-shutdown-costs-company-22-billion-cash-week

    • Interesting: I have a claim in on one of the two main class actions against VW for the emissions scandal. I wonder whether VW Australia will be tempted to declare bankruptcy given the economic downdraft. Interesting times. I could certainly do with the money right now as I don’t qualify (yet) for a share of SloMo’s lollies

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Doesn’t it though?

      I wonder how many retirement plans that were based on keeping Strayan kiddies homeless have just been dashed. Silver linings…

    • The frustrating thing is, people will blame the virus for the undoing of their innovative real estate wizardry, but that’s only partly true.

      No mate – you were just running on borrowed time in our BS non-productive pyramid-scheme economy, and you’d have realised that if you were half as clever as you claim to be. Yeah! That’s what I’d say to them.

    • Wrinkled Sachs

      About 3 weeks ago inside airbnb had about 24,000 maybe 25,000 listings (cant remember – might be able to down load the history) for all of Melbourne.

      It is now down to 22k
      http://insideairbnb.com/melbourne/

      Here’s the deal – if you have NOT lost your job and have an Airbnb listing that was paying the mortgage you are screwed. This is where the market will collapse.

      • Hibernation, mate… oh, and AirBnB will put its hand up for a support package from the government…

        • Any support package must be linked to tax paid. I don’t want to see any business that offshore their profits getting a handout,

    • Wrinkled Sachs

      About 3 weeks ago inside airbnb had about 24,000 maybe 25,000 listings (cant remember – might be able to down load the history) for all of Melbourne.

      It is now down to 22k
      http://insideairbnb.com/melbourne/

      Here’s the deal – if you have NOT lost your job and have an Airbnb listing that was paying the mortgage you are screwed. This is where the market will collapse.

    • I smell lots of forced sales and financial pain. I didn’t realise but in the US there are heaps of people with large portfolios of properties all heavily mortgaged and heavily reliant on Airbnb rates to service those mortgages i.e. zero room for error.

      I have no doubt there is a similar situation here too.

  19. an interesting observation:

    For how long can a person spread the coronavirus to other people?
    The length of time during which a person remains infectious (and can spread the COVID-19 infection to others) is not yet entirely known. However, some evidence suggests that a person can spread the infection from about a day before they first develop symptoms until up to one day after their symptoms are gone.

    https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-symptoms-and-how-the-virus-spreads-faqs#how-long-person

    so the question is for how long can a person spread the coronavirus to other people is he/she is asymptomatic? never? a day? couple of days?
    Also, for how long that person would be able to be testes positive using current tests? never? a day? couple of days?

    this can mean that large percentage of population already got it but the tests we use cannot tell us
    we need serologic tests ASAP

  20. I have been looking for some countries just ahead of us on the COVID graphs, but which are roughly comparable. Unfortunately the comparators are all Northern Hemisphere, but to my eye Norway, Canada and UK are interesting. By my recokoning (or is it wokening these days) I put

    Norway 24 hours ahead of us
    Canada 72 hours ahead of us
    UK 8 days ahead of us

    Now we know overall case and death numbers are going up. It seems slow here in Australia. The development of interest is ICU cases, since the fear and panic once the ICUs are full will be the next hurdle to overcome. I reckon watching ICU cases / ICU overload in these countries, especially Canada would be worthwhile.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      All of those countries have a much colder climate. I wonder if that’s a factor.

      • I have three factors that I suspect could be in our favour: Low density, high sunlight, low humidity. It’s true that we haven’t hit winter yet, but winter in almost all parts of Australia is nothing like a Northern Hemisphere winter – much shorter for a start.

        • Vitamin D sun etc is very interesting as a possible factor, I’m taking suplimements.
          Girlfriend across WeChat shocked when I told her that you can get CV from someone without symptoms.
          Stayz house over the road 2443 looking for a permanent tenant.

    • a lot of those countrirs lagged in prophylactic measures in conparison.

      if we take Mike MB’s figures on chinese in Aus, we shoild have had close to 99% infection here so far.
      given Chinese proximity and ties, we are doing exceptionally well in comparison to the Europe.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        There are a lot of Chinese factories and workers in Northern Italy, especially around Milan.
        They mostly went back to China for New year celebrations and then returned to italy

  21. BigDuke6MEMBER

    Ok. I’m only going to post on this once.
    It looks like Coming and Les are going to be more right on this than anyone.
    The modeling is shown that moronic Scomo is actually managing this well enough.
    The ICUs are quiet and should be full in a weeks time. Not going to happen. Someone asked me why they were empty- we’ve stopped elective operations which is where most icu patients come from. With a ventilator in every theater NSW actually has an impressive capacity so everyone just chill.
    Italy has been a disaster because they were overwhelmed quickly and didn’t understand it. They recycled the air in their hospitals and gave everyone a huge viral load. Sweden are going for herd immunity. This basically means if you said to people “look , 15% of your over 80’s will die and 1 in 200 of everyone else then we can see how it goes from now on”
    I’ve seen the links but this is the latest from someone senior close to the front line. Ie me. Not that poor young pup some of you roasted the other day. I noted the names….

    • Italy has been a disaster because they were overwhelmed quickly and didn’t understand it.

      And New York and California??? …

      Not buying

      • USA has poor public health infrastructure and a huge underclass. Like in Italy, the virus has been circulating for weeks undetected. Even when it first emerged there was little to no testing.
        We have relatively well resources public health units here who have been doing good contact tracing. We also lack the cheek by jowl living of Queens or Brooklyn.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      “The ICUs are quiet and should be full in a weeks time. Not going to happen.”

      Could you clarify what is not going to happen? The ICUs will not fill up because there will not be a flood of serious cases?

      • BigDuke6MEMBER

        The other variable is our normal flu season and winter which is a problem every year but yes the curve is being flattened and the peak which still may stretch things is being put back in a more manageable way. If Gladys hadn’t released all the cruise ship passengers it would be obvious to see

        • Seasonal Flu will not be an issue. It is less contagious than nCov and the social distancing will drop the number of seasonal flu cases. In Hong Kong the number of Seasonal flu cases dropped to zero in what is normally the height of their flu season.

        • Any suggestions on how best to achieve that in these difficult times? We need a reusachtige COVID-19 lock-down special report.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        1 Have heard on the grapevine that one NSW public hospital where they have 10 or fewer ICU beds, 80% of them are already taken up by ScoVID-19 patients.

      • BigDuke6MEMBER

        Brazil USA… ok cities with more poverty and population density as here and no public health as we would recognize it. But whatever. This is what’s happening here just now and I’ll report back in a week. I hope I’m not wrong and it hasn’t all gone to sh1t.

      • hey, I’m happy if we have it relatively under control. and i agree that Brazil/USA are very different to here – but they will provide more evidence about spread/distribution of impact.

        what i’m not enjoying is watching people on here refuse to accept cause & effect when it doesn’t suit their argument. people in my social circle have been running well ahead of government policy when it comes to self isolation and changing lifestyle – but people here are claiming that the reduction is unrelated to increased social distancing (or somehow celebrating Italy’s curve flattening while ignoring they have been locked up for close to 3 fvcking weeks).

        • It is amusing watching all the p*ssing competitions to see who is ‘right’ about this virus. I am more than happy if this turns out to be a non event in Australia but in the meantime I am taking precautions by limiting my contact with people and things.

      • And Brazil president is calling this a little bit of flu and wants business as usual. Apparently he is annoyed at the State governors for doing the opposite.

        • yes, he’s a particularly special kind of psycho. he’s using it as a way to try to wrestle control from state governors, to punish the states where his support is low and knowing that Brazil’s huge inequality means that the society is conditioned to treat the social groups who’ll die in the highest numbers as less worthy humans. also his hardcore followers are a type of sadistic death cult that revels in the suffering of others.

          • How the hell does someone like that get elected – most people in Brazil are dirt poor.

          • an economic crisis, systematic corruption amongst the political/business elite that formented an anti-politics movement, a resurgence of religious conservatism via the neopentacostal movement, high crime rates that make you feel like you’re living in a state of siege so a kill-em-all strong man seems the best option, a pathological fear of communism – a hangover from Operation Condor era – that compares social-democratic parties to Mao. an elite that is highly class-conscious and controls all the levers of power, a powerful fake news industry pumping out anti-science/flat-earth obscurantism confusion to the masses, general political illiteracy…i’ve spent a year trying to work it out and it still doesn’t add up.

    • Wrinkled Sachs

      Lols.

      10 days ago there were 300 cases – there are ten times that now.

      In another 30 days when there are 30 thousand cases every ICU bed will be full with at least 1000 people unable to get treatment – thats the basic maths mate.

      No idea.

      • 20 days ago we were operating everything as normal.
        If they go hard and enter much fuller lockdown than we have now there will be far fewer newer cases in 20 or 30 days than there are today.
        Unfortunately if they do manage to crush it they will get blasted for over reacting.

        • Wrinkled Sachs

          You rally don’t get it do you.

          The cases that were released two weeks ago – and since then until yesterday, lock down, have been transmitting uncontrolled for that entire time. Basically we will not know the spread of what is in the community TODAY for another 5 days (incubation time) – so there are already thousands of cases.

          There is no way – none – of getting out of this without massive casualties. Flattening the curve does NOT end transmission or ICU cases – it removes the SPIKE in those numbers and pushes them out over time.

          You really need to understand that. The only way to reduce transmissions and casualties is to place everyone in lock down UNTIL there is a vaccine (12 months minimum).

          • Yes and yes, that is the way I understand it. This virus will not just “burn” itself out without complete lockdown, something that cannot happen here. I was reading that China has something like 170 million cameras to watch their population. They can track a persons movement moment to moment, check their interactions and then forcibly remove person/persons if need be. They are still not back to capacity despite this….we don’t come close to that kind of capability. The genie is out of the bottle…

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Don’t worry – your health authorities are apparently working on plans for increasing home palliative care for the hospital overload, so that people can die at home. Note the words “working on plans”.

    • Data on ICU and ventilator outcomes ain’t good. Seems if you’re on a ventilator you’re counting the hours.

    • It’s the threat of ICU overwhelm that keeps us all on restrictions. Lower restriction, increase infection, risk of ICU overwhelm. We don’t weld people inside their residence here, instead we rely on the individual’s ethics and value system and I suppose the possibility of a fine. It’s the reliance on the individual to do the right thing that concerns me most. Which brings me back to the beginning. We are in a bind for many months at least…

    • This will be over in 2 weeks
      Just like that not because we did something
      Pandemics always stop as quickly and as sudden as they start
      Viruses weaken in few generations and people gain immunity

      • Cool story bro.
        Pity the spanish flu which started in 1917 was still killing high numbers of people in 1919.

        • Spanish flu was killing in the same locations for years
          Workd is smaller now. Almost all countries already have 100 cases

      • Everything you have said or predicted over the last 2 months has been wrong but you just continue.
        You said this is a hoax blah blah… well open your eyes.

    • I might add that virtually all the deaths were of people with some other kind of disease and they just so happened to test positive for COVID-19. That of course gets reported automatically as a death caused by the Coronavirus. Scientifically true? No. Dramatic? Yes. E.g. 82yo Italian man with severe emphysema dies. Autopsy reveals he also contracted COVID-19. Died of Coronavirus!

      Have a look a death rates in Germany. I have no doubt that country takes a more scientific approach to identifying actual causes of death than Spain or Italy.

      Even today, the “news” is reporting the “first baby to die from Coronavirus!”. It’s terribly sad that a baby has died and even more sad his/her death is being utilised for headlines and drama. The baby may well have had COVID-19, but what else?

    • What is true is that the economic effects are going to be disastrous.

      The health effects. Not great. But certainly not extraordinary.

    • I’ve heard an Australian psychic say it will be 3 weeks before Australia starts the return to ‘normal’. International travel, for tourism, will pick up again by September this year.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Also rumours that the tour group sick in the Barossa Valley were there too.

      You know though that we’ll never be allowed to know. That’s Scummo’s Dog we’re dealing with there.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        Maybe a smart move from the grounded roo. Cancel all sick leave including people already on it including ones with the big C. Turn around down the track and say OK if you are already on it you still get it but no new sick leave to be granted from this point forward. Makes them look flexible, listening to their works, good corporate citizens, engaging with the unions. The grand plan falls into place

    • Wrinkled Sachs

      How do people feel about China printing and injecting $4 Trillion directly into their SOE’s ?

      if(Goose===Gander){
      print(“capitalism dead”);
      }else if(Goose!==Gander){
      print(“neo-colonialism lives !!”);
      }

      “Boeing spent roughly $60B ($59,994 million to be exact) in buybacks ($40.6B) and dividends ($19.4B) in the past years while it generated roughly $55B in cash flows. Boeing returns all of its cash flow from operations to shareholders. The $5B excess is caused by 2019, the year in which Boeing spent money on dividends and buybacks while operating cash flow fell. Excluding 2019, we found that Boeing returns 92 percent of its operating cash flow and 113 percent of its free cash flow to shareholders.”

      No doubt, the bean counters running Boeing were personally rewarded for this mass financialization. Coincidentally, or not, the $60 billion returned to shareholders is the exact amount Boeing requested in federal support for the aerospace industry.

      From what we gather, this week’s $2 trillion federal bailout includes a $17 billion federal loan program for businesses deemed “critical to maintaining national security.” The provision does not mention Boeing by name, but is largely for the company’s benefit.

      They’ll also likely get their grubby hands on a piece of the $454 billion the Treasury Department intends to have the Fed lever up to $4 trillion in loans for corporate America.

      • Corporate welfare is immoral at the best of times — but yeah, bailing out all those companies who aggressively pursued share repurchases is beyond the pale. Added to which, it should made clear that any company accepting taxpayer loot receives an automatic ban from repurchasing shares for 10yrs. Frankly, it should be made illegal from here on.

  22. Arthur Schopenhauer

    A significant portion of Oz retail stores are owned by debt fueled retail conglomerates:
    – Woolworths Holdings (DJs, Country Road, Witchery, …)
    – Super Retail Group Limited
    – Westfarmers
    – Kathmandu (Faiydown, MacPac, etc)
    – Myer
    Any others? Smaller groupings like AGP & Co look more solid.

    The Lowy family timed their commercial RE exit well.

    From what I’m reading, the psychological effects of pandemics last longer than war. An average of 40 years. People save more, regional trade restrictions & slightly higher wages. (Unless there is catastrophic death rate (50%) like the Black Plague. It caused a major increase in wages.)

    What other Oz industries are carrying high debt? Scratch that, what Oz industries have a low debt burden?

    • Agree with all of that with the proviso of one thought ” How do wages rise when 1,000,000 are competing for 1 job etc?”. Many businesses are headed for the scrap heap and won’t resurface. They are going to pay 100% less than they did before.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        True. So far, all my thought experiments finish with the step change in economic activity being maintained after the pandemic has passed.
        The wild cards being:
        – a vaccine
        – effective treatment
        – a more deadly strain
        – nation state war
        – civil war
        – de-evolution of the US
        Hard to know if the virus will make a dent in Strayans love of residential property.
        Who ever writes PH’s press release has their finger on the zeitgeist. (Latham?)

        • Nah matey, property to the moon! Hell, if Thanos snapped his fingers and disappeared 50 of earth’s population, the property prices would be still doubling every 7 years … 😅

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        “How do wages rise when 1,000,000 are competing for 1 job etc?”

        Sizable UBI

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      +1 the Lowy family – definitely, the smartest family in the room. When they did their final sellout of Westfield in early 2018 at a very healthy price, they were effectively telling everyone who would listen, that mall retail had topped.

      I think Frank shoved off to Israel last year as his base, so the only pity is physical meeting catch-ups with his great mate (and vice versa), John Howard, are probably on the backburner for a while?

      • Hydroxychloroquine Azithromycin

        Most trials indicate only needs to be take 4-6 days – it is only long term ingestion that risks some of the nasty side-effects. Pretty good risk/reward trade off IMO.

      • And retinopathy… though again, most shut ins are nearly blind and with hairy palms anyway….

        • the severe side effects are why the French are only allowing the drug’s use on those most severely affected by the virus: they’re using it as a hail mary.

    • My thoughts went comic side : Covidnineteen days are numbered… as soon as it devours 6 and a change billion people…

  23. Number of customers asking for mortgage pause this week from the big four:

    WBC – 44,000
    CBA – 27,000
    ANZ – 25,000
    NAB – 14,500 (both mortgage and business)

    Alarm bells on Westpac and ANZ based on market share. NAB data looks iffy.

    Source – MSM.

    • Banks trying not to have forced sales to protect their little castle

      Let’s see if it goes on for the next 1 year or longer how generous they will be

      Anyway fractional reserve banking is the ultimate scam

        • I agree with many of your comments and tbh would like an end to the property speculation and false wealth in this country with lower property prices for all, but why can’t the government rescue the property market?

          • How could they do it? If there are a heap of sellers (forced by job circumstances, general financial difficulty) and they’re all trying to offload simultaneously and forced to undercut one another, how the Govt arrest that? Can the Govt indiscriminately buy every property (like the RBA does bonds during QE)?

            Straya’s Achilles Heel is the extensive ownership of IPs – this is the nuclear bomb sitting under the market. Rates are now at their lowest and, while the RBA can buy mortgage-backed securities, it normally buys AAA-rated tranches only meaning the banks and other investors retain a healthy slice of risk.

            The economy is absolute cactus – the financial pain right now is going to be huge — every day that goes by that we remain in some kind of lockdown just adds to the pain. The best things that can happen is the Govt provides UBI to everyone to keep them afloat – but it won’t stop owners of IPs offloading them. Meanwhile the renters: students, Airbnb are gone – for a lengthy period while the younger generations renting will be moving back in with mum and dad. That dynamic will decimate the IP market.

            Pedro, I’m open minded if you have an idea how they can save it at this point I’m all ears. You need to understand that even 1 or 2% of Straya’s total housing stock in a fire sale could cause a collapse — the marginal price resets all values one way or another.

    • Westpac’s status as a bottom feeder comes back to haunt it.
      I predict westpac will become the ‘bad bank’ when all of this is done.

  24. Stuff this place

    I work in health. If the govt proposed to pay from my money 75percent of someone’s wage to sit at home while I put my toosh on the line and possibly infect my family..no thanks

    The cost alone would be unimaginable

    Go to hell aust

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s not fair, but what are the alternatives?
      Civil unrest would kill more people.

      • Maybe people should have done something radical… hmmm maybe save up for a rainy day instead of living pay to pay??

        Don’t expect me to prop up people paying Xbox at home while I put my family on the line paying for u to stay at home

        • I know hear you and know where you are coming from. My only hope it that the suggested 80% of existing pay deal is based ATO information so as least only tax payers get it not cash in hand works. Also, I hope it has an upper limit, I’d hate to see arsehats in bullish*t, overpaid jobs getting 80% of their wage to do nothing.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      This is why a UBI style payment, of the same amount, should be deposited into EVERYONES bank account.
      Those whose work is essential can get paid their normal money AND get their UBI.
      This will help to keep non essential workers at home saving potentially thousands of lives.
      A proper ground up stimulus a QE for the people.
      Like others here have said eleminate the entire convoluted, complicated and bureaucratic centerlink, MyGove and wealfare system and do a simple UBI instead.
      The ATO already has everyones Tax File numbers and Bank account details.
      The economy saving money could be flowing in a matter of days.

    • IF your plan is to let people starve on the street I suggest you invest in a gun and the willingness to use it, because crime will absolutely skyrocket in that scenario.

      • Nobody starves. I still see lots of nice cars on the road. Lots of prados and bmw and Audi. Sell those to start with

        • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

          Wait till it sinks in that its “not just the flu”. See the fireworks start then. I am trying to get my head around the 14 deaths in Australia and the epidemic of deaths in places like Italy. And I warned my wife in January that this would be HHUGGE!

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          If desperados are starting to panic sell their wheels then I’m not paying more than $500 for a 911.

          Don’t know how far that will go.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Ha! A pregnant missus, no job, massive mortgage and a shed full of cars worth $70.

            A month ago Gav was a shooting star…

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Well, it is with no job and $50 bucks in the bank.

            My first mortgage was $80k. Was earning around $40-45k, which even at the time was well above average wage. Couldn’t sleep for a month because I thought it was massive. How times change eh…

          • Yeah true. Missus is still working for now. I can liquidate some stocks to reduce it to about $100k so that makes me feel better. But I still think they will continue this economic fairy tale (refer to link I posted below) because they depend too much on the fairy tale not ending.

            With all this printing and QE hard to see assets not rising in value long term. But what do I know anyway? Just some pleb. 😃

            I honestly want a prudent system to return. Where saving and being prudent is rewarded.

          • Gav, I’d like to believe this too, but I wonder about the sheer shock to financial markets due to the lower volume of cash moving around globally as a result. Prosperity seems to be predicated on the continual growth of productivity, and when that isn’t enough we get credit-induced lubricants, and when that isn’t enough we get QE… What comes next? We absolutely do need a reordering of priorities, but I can’t imagine it coming without an absolute shock to the fabric of modern economies.

          • Simon a more prudent system is 1 where people have 25 year old cars still. Where they repair rather than replace where the latest gadgets cost a fortune.

            People will need to be happier with less. But I actually think they would be happier. They just don’t know it yet.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Frost, yet another laugh for the day, ”there goes Gavin’s retirement plan” no offence to Gav, it was just out of the blue.

          • Couldn’t agree more. It’s nice to have new stuff, but all I’ve even really wanted is something with a bit of character and heart that I can keep retrofitting and repairing.
            If someone comes up with a modular 100 year car that makes financial sense then you could replace everything over time. Modern cars have their engines virtually poured into the engine bay, no option for easy retrofits, with safety adding to weight and guaranteed redundancy due to continuously improving requirements.
            I’d be happy with a jetpack, and failing a jetpack, a gyrocopter.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            It all started when Gav caved and bought.
            He is the straw.
            Camels back
            The last bear to fall.

        • Sell them to whom? Not trying to be obtuse (though succeeding) but those suggestions work if there’s a layer in the society willing to trade on those goods. If you look at things in isolation, all plans look like the RBA forecasting inflation: hockey-sticks everywhere. However, background interaction between failing systems is not always linear, and it certainly doesn’t obey scaled up ‘single tests done in isolation’.

          So, back to your statement, I think the reset will have to punch some arrogant knobs in the throat, and hard, and for a long time, so that the hard lessons of life are learned once again.

          • The Hong Kong version of Dr Doom, Marc Faber, used to write lots about long-term economic cycles and one thing he used to say is that the best time to buy is not at the top of the market or the guessed-at bottom of the market but when everyone else had lost interest in a market and moved on to other pursuits. So using his logic if most people still think/think/pray that markets will bounce back quickly now is not the time to buy.

          • I tend to agree with that. Just like the housing market. In Ireland 2011 and 2012 the news was reporting home values were still falling. Nobody was interested in taking out a loan. But by 2013 prices were started to take off again as the economy was getting back on its feet.

            I don’t know how long this economic rut will last for, but I’d say longer than 2008s crash. So maybe 5-6 years is when things will turn around again? I guess it depends on how this virus goes and nobody can be sure when we will be out of the woods.

    • Stuff this place

      Go to hell aust

      .
      We’re fine here mate… you’re welcome to go back…

    • My thoughts too. Not only am I getting emails to ask me to go on the COVID intubation teams, we have no paid sick leave! We are contractors!
      Then I read about everyone with their hand out for money while I go to work and potentially get infected.
      And no doubt if I survive, in a year’s time the government will tell me I have to pay an extra 5 or 10% tax on my income to pay for everyone else to sit at home. And I should consider myself lucky to have had a job.

      • Yep.. 5% to 10% probably more and then “fix the budget” tax, increase medicare levies, indirect taxing starts usually via education, a bigger shit fight with super contribs and etc etc. We where/are in the process of selling everything up because we have had enough of this crap. Partner is a locum.

  25. happy valleyMEMBER

    The economic girly man Mathias Terminator is on Insiders now spinning that we are going to do things the Strayan way – what’s that more deaths sooner, faster and cheaper just like Malcolm’s NBN? Hello, Mathias, Scotty, Josh and the rest of the federal LNP crew – lot’s of Strayan people are not listening?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      A lot of people are,….and for the first time,…ever!
      Try not to be so defeatists brother change is coming.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Meh, what change? There’s been a coup. Parliament has been shut down and the country is being run by a few hand selected mates of a very dangerous Pentecostal moron.

        Straya as a nation is toast.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          This is what is going to politically active the plebs.
          Why do you think there were big political swings to the Economic left after the world wars?
          For decades after WW2 labour had the greatest share of GDP ever!
          Welfare states were established with unemployment benefits, pensions, free health and education for all.
          I was reading here the other day only 100,000 Australian lives we’re lost in all the wars we have participated in.

          You really don’t think over a 100,000 dead grandparents, a lot of them who could have lived if they had access to ICU and ventilators,…isn’t going to be a catalyst for political change?

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            You’re assuming our political system will look something like it was pre-virus.

            There’s been a coup, and don’t think for a second that Scummo wouldn’t use live rounds on what he considers to be unworthy…which is most of us.

          • Is that going to dent my property value? Well, if so, then I’m not in! F*ck you, I got mine! And all that jazz

          • Yes and no.
            The politics will be tribal. Not Lab Lib but nationalism v others
            Ugly but reality.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Nah – didn’t you get the memo? Seemingly, benevolent dictatorship commenced in May 2019?

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Only had 2 conversations yesterday (apart from Mrs. B)
        1 was son in law the other a near neighbor ( we kept our social distance)
        Both voted LNP, (neighbor a hard right National party)
        Both were furious with the Slo man, would be changing their vote.

  26. blindjusticeMEMBER

    Perth just lost 100 doctors to Ireland. https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/irish-doctors-return-from-australia-you-don-t-run-away-from-things-like-this-1.4213048

    Anyone think they saw the reaction here versus the lockdown there and think….feck this I`ve better chances at home.

    “As an Irish doctor living in Australia, I feel lucky to have two countries that I can call home. However, currently I feel like my heart is broken in two – one half that desperately wants to come back to Ireland to help all of my colleagues on the frontline and to be on the same soil as my family, the other half that knows that I’m needed where I am to help fight off the inevitable tsunami of cases that is about to hit Australia, my home for the last four years”

    Another from an earlier article:

    “I’m an Irish nurse and I have been living in Australia for six years. I’d planned to return home this June/July with my husband, who is an electrician, to live in Wexford. I would love to be able to come home to help during this crisis. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like I’ll be able to get home any time soon as there seems to be very few flights and all at very inflated prices. I’m qualified nine years and currently working as a clinical nurse specialist in gastroenterology in the Royal Perth Hospital.
    Hopefully, I’ll be able to leave here soon so that I can come home to help with whatever I can. Wishing the very best of luck to all of our wonderful healthcare workers back home. I’m very proud of how our country is dealing with this crisis and how our government is showing great leadership. Ní neart go cur le chéile.”

    More:
    “Nurse, Perth: ‘I’m moving home next week and will work during this pandemic’
    I’m a registered nurse in Ireland, but have been living in Perth for 18 months. I’m not working as a nurse here (I work as an assistant in nursing) and I’m due to go home in six months, but I’m moving this forward to next week to be at home and work during this pandemic. ”

    ^^ The folly of large numbers of temporary workers
    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/my-heart-is-broken-in-two-irish-healthcare-workers-abroad-respond-to-ireland-s-call-1.4209899

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Ireland entered full lock down overnight, after having already been in partial lockdown (all schools etc closed and people encouraged to stay indoors) for probably 3 weeks now?

      Meanwhile, the federal LNP burns Straya and itself because Scotty from Marketing won’t deliver (no surprises) on his core promise to burn for Straya. Just doing dog’s work.

      • Nah, you know what?

        Fúck it!

        Let it burn.

        Let it all burn and be it on their heads!

        Fúcking burn the paddock and then plough it under.

    • I have no problem with this as long as we cut off welfare support for all the other temp visa holders as soon as they are able to travel back home.

    • I can hear Peachy calling after them: “… you’ll be back! … ” then adding in sotto-voice “… I hope…”

        • Government has encouraged 6 month mortgage holidays to work on the next part of kitchen sink to be thrown at it.

    • This is what I was referring too last night. Most immigrants come here to get some ‘gold’ and have no loyalty when the times get tough. I hope they government refuses entry to people like this in the future.

  27. Disgusting we have calls for non citizens to even get welfare particularly Kiwis. They can always go back home tbh as they are always telling us how good enzed is. Let Jacinda look after them

    And as they are guest workers they should be happy for our generosity to have been here in the first place

    • Quite right! Organise the planes to fly the migrant Aussie workers back home to you whilst your at it will you? It will save us the costs that we are already paying for them to get Welfare of all types here, that Australia does not grant to Kiwis there. Sounds like a win-win for us! We get to replace Aussies with our own Kiwis and we don’t have to pay the cost for the care of Aussies anymore!
      As I wrote on here yesterday ‘Lest we forget? ” ANZAC is no more… and it took Morrison and current Australian attitudes to accomplish the destruction of 100 years of mateship. What was once a unique relationship, is dead.
      It’s times like these we all get to see who are true friends are…..

      • Happy to have the 50 aussies back if u take the 650k kiwi brothers including all the kiwis of convenience back door entry types who use nz as a stepping stone

        • Done! And good luck picking your fruit and shearing your sheep and staffing your restaurants from now on….Oh. And we’ll have the likes of XERO back thank you, and the other high tech/business relationship we provide to you.
          But I guess you could replace ‘us’ with other foreign worker, who, coincidentally you DO provide all the Welfare safety nets to.
          A costly exercise for you my friend. Very costly indeed, in all sorts of ways.

          • Lol kiwis are generally a few rungs up the ladder than fruit pickers etc. To be fair, I would rather we restrict everything …… jobs, residency, support etc to just those we have the formal arrangements with … eg NZ. Rather than the open slather on anyone.
            Oh and I am sure we could survive without Xero …….

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Especially glad to get that little ars# who murdered 57 peple in Christchurch back.

    • Jim
      You clearly do not know much about our visa system and how the kiwis have their own visa type. The reason for that is that clearly the relationship between Australia and NZ is uniquely close. It is also pretty obvious that the vast majority of kiwis do not come to Australia to bludge off the Australian taxpayer: any that do of course would have obtained Australian citizenship as quickly as they could so these are not the people we are talking about here. In normal times Australia gets for the most part people educated to our standard, who are fit, healthy and motivated, and who easily meld into our communities.

      We might still hold a bit of a grudge that we had to rename Auckland Avenue in Canberra because they decided to go it alone but I would have no issue with the Australian government providing some temporary assistance to kiwis who have been long-term residents here.

      • You, Janet and the 451 guy below got baited to an alias used to stir the pot.
        See other posts by the same alias here to get the gist…

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      I’ve lived here for years and paid taxes here for years. I find it petty to take the tax but deny supports being offered to temporary Visa holders…

      • Normally you might be right but with predictions of up to 2 millions unemployed how generous should we be? I think there should be a plan to repatriate ALL temp visa holders.

    • Yet another transparent but lame effort by you to protect your beloved Slomo from any criticism. No-one in Fairfax (or Labor) could make the decision to up the ante regarding people coming from the US. The inexplicable decisions to give favourable treatment to those coming from Italy over China and from the US over Italy lie squarely with this government that you work so tirelessly to run coverage for.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        Don’t think so mate. I despise Morrison as much as I despise LNP, Labor and MSM.

        I am more critical of Morrison than anyone I know of and have said since early January he should be shutting the border, and isolating anyone recently arrived.

        If you’re going to throw mud at me, at least know what you’re talking about.

        While Labor and MSM kept quiet, and kept talking about the budget, Morrison also being in the Canberra bubble, simply assumed being stupid was the way to go. They’re all to blame, and I’ve been very clear with my opinion on that.

        • The bald fact is that the Slomo is solely in control of our borders. At any international port the first and second lines are commonwealth officials. Slomo entirely owns the decisions to preference one group of people coming into Australia over another. He does not share equal responsibility with the ALP or the state governments or the media. Remember how he took personal ownership of controlling our borders by “stopping the boats”. If he could do it then then he has to now. Stop trying to muddy the waters here.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        Show me where Labor and media criticized it.

        I was criticising it in January.

        You’re attacking the wrong person.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        If this episode of self interest and incompetence doesn’t wake Australia up, I don’t know what it takes.

        I’m seriously not hearing that much criticism of the way it’s been handled. It couldn’t have been worse.

        • I agree. On other sites a lot of people are praising Morrison or downplaying any criticisms due to this being a really, really difficult situation to deal with. A lot of deaths and a serious crash is going to have to occur before it gets so bad that people will see through the spin and marketing.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            We went from an easy fix of early total lock down for a few weeks to get rid of the virus, to what we have now. A complete disaster with no end in sight.

            Staggering failure, with staggering consequences on a national lever right across parliament, and media.

            People should be furious. We’re not seeing it yet, but I think we will.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            People I talk to on the streets get it. They’re pissed. MSM don’t report what people think but.

        • Remember, now is not the time to be casting blame, we just have to get on with it.
          Oh sorry, that was about the bushfires in late 2019

  28. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    I was going to mow the lawns today.
    But I’ve got a panicked customer who must have her electric gas cooktop swapped over to a gas one before Tuesday’s lockdown.
    Don’t even know if I’ve got all the gear but I’m driving all the way out to bloody Richmond anyway.

    Sigh

    • I feel like this is literally my life story from the last 15 years, including the late realisation of the following:

      “One problem: You fail to recognize that the entire global economic order rested on that same system, and governments would do anything to protect it.”

      And it’s also the reason I’m not optimistic about a material softening of the housing market: because vested interests.

      • Yep, I was the same. That’s why I gave in and purchased. Seeing the Fed announce unlimited QE and 2trillion in stimulus and RBA determined to do the same. I realised when the moment for reform arrived they pushed the same old tripe out.

        Thing is, the Virus doesn’t care about these rules or the game. It has its own plans. If Covid-19 isn’t the cause then maybe the next viral outbreak will be.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      just when it was getting interesting, they stopped.
      tune in next week for the next exciting episode?

      • Haha yeah I thought the same. I guess the Corona Virus outcome will determine where things go from here?

  29. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    one of today’s links, Bob Dylan’s First Original Song in Years Is a 17-Minute Epic About JFK’s Assassination – Slate
    here is a link to a song I quoted from the other day.
    it is the 1st original song recorded by BD. In fact if I remember correctly there was only 2 original songs on his 1st album – only sold the vinyl LP last year..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rowYBDHISU

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      Now, a very great man once said
      That some people rob you with a fountain pen
      It didn’t take too long to find out
      Just what he was talkin’ about
      A lot of people don’t have much food on their table
      But they got a lot of forks n’ knives
      And they gotta cut somethin’

      • I can’t help myself, I know I should stop, but…can’t…help…self…

        1962, Bob Dylan, Talkin’ New York

        And it gets worse. Yes, I have it on original 1962 monophonic Columbia Vinyl, mint

        I hate myself now, but feel good, too

        • innocent bystanderMEMBER

          yep. mine was mint too. played twice for recording it to cassette.
          sold all my mint Redgums too.

  30. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Globalists make me sick

    Countries may decide they dare not rely on imported medical equipment, or imported antibiotics and vaccines, or other people’s air carriers.

    Good heavens – imagine if countries were better capable of dealing with black swan events that threatened supply chains and the ability of their society and economies to meet the needs of their people!

    Soon we may revert to the day when each country tried to do as much as possible for itself, regardless of cost and rationality.

    Because the slightest possibility of self reliance, will always trigger the most extreme outcomes – just look at Nationalism, one minute you might spend listening to Trump, the next thing you’ve got Hitler.

    Who writes these articles?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/dont-abandon-globalizationmake-it-better/608872/

    Oh… of course – David Frum…. culture maters.

    • Those who count the cost of everything, often know the value of nothing. The idea that we must produce goods for ever lower costs and make them cheaper and cheaper is part of the reason we are in this mess. Not just financially, but in terms of the impact to the Environment.

      I see a lot of old stuff on Facebook marketplace that was made in Yesteryear. Some of it (or most of it) was Australian made tools and furniture. It was solid, well made and sturdy. It want made of plastic and faux wood. It would last more than 5 mins.

      But of course cheap widgets require you to continue to spend pennies which keeps some bloke/woman in a third world country producing crap, day in day out in salve like conditions. How good is that? Yeah feck globalism.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          Nice summary of the problem of demographics, especially the ‘stagnation’ of Japan, was a highly anticipateable outcome (as is China’s). Mainly a result of the failure of economics to recognise that the value or ‘wealth’ is temporal (time related) to the moment it is created.

          The problem is that our elites and leaders, who’ve prospered under a previous demographic epoch, are not the same ones who will thrive under a different set of circumstances, and instead of allowing the economy to naturally achieve a new equilibrium and hence new centers of power, instead use a variety of economic levers (debt & interest rates) and social policies (mass migration) in order to try artificially attempt to hold the status quo (eg housing), in check.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Globalist doesn’t care where the widgets are made, just that they get them for the lowest price – every nations a net winner in their books, although if you spend a moment breaking down the winnings you’ll find the majority flow to them.

        They have no sense of attachment to whichever economy they are inhabiting, that there are economic losers in their country is offset by the fact they are winning and that there are other equally valid winners in other countries – their sense of ‘society’ is simply the economy.

        The division to a Globalist is the economy and culture, to the the Globalist both are wholly separable, where as for someone with a deep attachment to their community both are highly intertwined. Society, culture and the economy are the same thing when your country is your own..

        Frum, a so called Republican, give’s China a complete pass in the article – Trump on the other hand:

        In the early part of his administration, Trump treated the Chinese state as an adversary. Now, in political desperation, Trump is treating the Chinese nation as a racial menace. Soon, we may find that Trump has goaded it into outright enmity.

        More Waaaaaa Trump is evil because he wants to shift blame onto sinister foreigners by calling it the Chinese Wuflu…

        Trump and his media partners at Fox News have recently pivoted from denying the crisis to blaming it on China. They want Americans to call the coronavirus the “Chinese virus.” Their motive is obvious: to shift blame from a negligent president onto sinister foreigners.

        …because I dunno, maybe the reason we’re all cowering from the Bat Sniffles atm is BECAUSE OF SINISTER FOREIGNERS!

        Seriously whether masquarading as Democrats or Republicans, Globalists despise the slightest hint of Nationalism – NOT because it may actually be good for the society beneath them, but because it threatens THEIR freedoms. Globalists hate the idea of not being able to flit between country to country depending on how favourably they’re treated. Nationalism means restrictions on their freedoms.

        The real virus infecting the world today is Globalism and those who carry it.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The huge number of coronavirus test kits from China that doesn’t work should be a wake up call. When it comes to Chinese manufacturer cutting corners, the only limit is their imagination. When there is a shortage of a chemical, the ‘good’ ones will dilute it, the ‘bad’ one will substitute it with something else.

      This explains why sometimes a person in China need to be tested 4 times before getting a positive result.

      • Everything in Xina is made to buyer’s budget.
        Their own stuff also.
        You buy your iPhartone or the $0.10 gizmo, ultimately it is made to *your* budget for this.
        They cater for any budget and that includes inappropriately set budgets for critical items.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Very true – hopefully if anything good comes out of this, it will be greater focus on nationhood and society, and just what those civic and social responsibilities entail.

        “The dictum that we should not feel a special bond for any particular country, nation, race, or culture, but transfer our preferences on the whole world equally, was not new…..It was guided by an obsessively self-loathing elite, a phenomenon unprecedented in history.”

        So true.

    • The Atlantic – what did you expect? Globalist cheerleader, friend of the liberal elites. I’m sure I recall them fawning all over Hiterly ahead of the 2016 election, a poster-child for globalists and the ‘liberal’ establishment, if ever there was. Horribly corrupt too – colour me surprised there.

      Trump’s victory, of course, had nothing to do with his opponent being that odious witch – it was Putin’s fault!

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        The Atlantic do have some good articles – I even read the Guardian or NY Times sometimes too! This was more to do with the author than the publisher. The ideas and values and the manner that he priortises them or denigrates them offended me greatly.

        • I had a subscription to the Guardian for years and then Progressivism muscled in on trad Labor values and that was that. There are good, thought-provoking articles everywhere but I especially associate the Atlantic with Hillary and their fawning support so …

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yeah, I just read that – if it’s the real deal than it will scare the hell out of bit parts of the population. It’s pretty clear that this is not just an ‘old person’s’ disease, although that message is not getting out too well (at least in this part of the world).

  31. The great thing about all this is the kids are watching the so called “adults” argue in front of them … that will be quite interesting down the proverbial road …

  32. I’ve heard rumours from two normally reliable sources that NSW will be going into full lockdown tomorrow. You’ll only be able to leave your home to get essentials (groceries & meds) once a day and one person at a time. Army & police will be shutting highways to non-essential travel too.

    Has anyone else heard this, or is it just hearsay?

    • No idea if it’s true or not, but at his stage the military has been mobilised and deployed.
      It would be prudent to expect this COULD happen at a moments notice.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        he said “NSW to go into lockdown.”
        Military is under federal control.
        If Gladys is going to do this she must have te Slo ones OK.
        This was not evident when the Belgian was nterviewed on Insiders this morning,
        altho he did play with a dead bat.

        • What I’ve gotten is slomo has given up and letting states do whatever they want and he will provide support.
          I guess it’s a better look than making statements that the states just ignore anyway.
          Lack of military also won’t stop announcement of full lockdown, just make it harder to enforce.

    • That rumour seems to be getting around, but just heard on wireless that they think what they have been doing so far has “flattened the curve” so Scotty from Marketing will no doubt hold off.

      • I hadn’t heard as much but I assumed after hearing NSW infection rate had dropped I assumed they might hold fire.

        SloMo doesn’t want a bar of any of this

  33. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    Did weekly shopping today the bill was $432 (4 people in my household). All fresh fruit, veggies, meat and dairy. Prices are higher even compared to a week ago. How will people without jobs/income cope? Red capsicums were $15/kg!

    • Make sure yours are legit. I got mine home and discovered they were green capsicums painted with ketchup. Every fvking scammer in the country tryna make money off this.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      I have been supporting the small local produce seller aka The Local Store.
      they have not increased their prices.
      normally a bit more expensive than the supermarkets (who I rarely buy any fresh produce from .. because it ain’t fresh is it? – I usually go to a large market style shop)
      the local encourages SD
      all their shelf stackers wear gloves, as does the owner at the check out.
      I have decided to continue to support them even when all this is over – just as a way of saying thanks.

      • They would simply look through a bit of price inflation in a non-essential like Food.

  34. 12.12pm
    NSW cases grow by 174 since Saturday
    By Alexandra Smith
    NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said there are now have 1791 COVID-19 cases in the state, an increase of 174 since yesterday. There have been eight deaths and there are 24 people in ICU.

    So far in NSW (1800 is a fairly good sample):
    Fatality rate is 0.4% (number of dead divided by number of confirmed cases)
    Rate of severe cases, those requiring ICU is less than 2%
    There are 1100 confirmed cases among those 60 and older so death rate for those over 60 is less than 1%

    All numbers are much lower than initial Chinese stats.

    It’s quite reasonable to assume actual number of infected people is much higher than number of confirmed cases so mortality and % of critical cases is much lower.
    As some suggest, if 80% of cases are asymptomatic or mild enough not to qualify for testing mortality would be 0.08%,
    Would be less than 0.5% even if we assume all people currently in ICU will die

    This is much much less than cataclysmic numbers we hear around, sometimes from medial and political staff

        • Recruited any heavies yet old fella? I’m sure it’ll be easy at first with all those coconuts not eligible for the dole but after the first tenant defending themselves shanks one, those big islanders will be back at church praying for the rapture before you know it.

      • Yeah, Australia is different to the US, Italy, Spain etc. Lucky country, “world’s best practice” etc. ScoMo said we got this so all good.

      • many other countries have as low death rate numbers, some with very large number of cases like Germany (0.75% fatality rate), Austria 0.82%, Norway 0.57, Israel 0.33% …
        It’s similar with critical cases, South Korea 0.62%, UK 0.95%, Israel 1.38%, Austria 1.62%, …

        We are not exception, numbers vary significantly but in countries that did large number of tests numbers are always lower,

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Australia currently have a very low rate of test returning positive result. Italy is 25%, US is 13%, 10% in UK. Australia is only 2%. Dodgy Chinese test kit aside, it shows that the community spread is limited so far.

      After the border is closed, we will see the number in the community spread infection.

    • Agree that many people are asymptomatic which would make death rates overstated. It will take many weeks of antibody testing to work out how much the death rates are being overstated.

      A few things your statistical analysis is missing
      1) It takes many days on average to die. So you should be dividing total deaths by what the total figure was many days ago. Some analysts suggest 10-12 days ago.
      2) Once all mechanical ventilators are in use the death rate rises dramatically. Look at the stats for Italy
      3) This is a new and highly contagious virus and we have no immunity. Without social distancing we could potentially have over half the population infected over the next few months. If we allowed that scenario to play out the total deaths would be into the hundreds of thousands. If you think that figure is exaggerated then ask yourself why countries like UK and USA have backflipped on their idea of letting the virus rip through the population in order to minimise economic damage.

      • even if you assume all people in ICU will die our numbers are low
        ventilators don’t help as much as one may think. Very few people who get so bad that they need ventilation recover.
        ventilators just delay the death in most of cases

        I don’t understand this craze for extreme treatments like mechanical ventilation. Ventilation makes sense only if you help person breath while he/she is recovering from something other (injury, cardio issues, neural issues), the problem with corona cases is that patients are breading but their lungs are so damaged they cannot get oxygen transfer.
        Ventilation makes sense to keep patient alive while he/she is recovering from something else. in case of corona it’s keeping patient alive for some time while nothing else is being done to help recover lungs.

    • ApproachingZero

      You can’t divide the number of deaths by the number of cases. People don’t die the day they’re diagnosed. This is a very basic concept. If you don’t understand it you honestly need to go back to primary school.

      The “lots of people must be infected” theory doesn’t stand up to scrutiny either. The UK recently published stats of 84,000 symptomatic cases tested with 8,400 diagnosed positive. If there was a large number of undetected cases you’d expect a random sample to show that. Here you have a group biases towards symptomatic cases (that’s why they were tested) showing only 10% infection rate.

      • I’m comparing the same numbers for all countries so comparison is quite valid
        even if everyone in ICUs dies our rates would be low compared to simple fatality rates for other countries (our % of critical cases is very low as well)

        as per UK study, it still doesn’t show how many asymptomatic cases are out there. Even random testing would not do much because asymptomatic people could be infective over a short period of time only.
        They only way to tell is to do large number of serology tests

        • ApproachingZero

          Comparison is not valid when the case load is low. You can’t compare Australia to a country that’s a month ahead in case numbers, when their hospitals have been inundated. This is basic stuff. Check yourself into a primary school – most ten-year-olds could understand what you’re failing to.

      • Diamond Princess outbreak is the most extensively tested, and most mature outbreak

        So provides the best data

        Final mortality was 1.4%

        BUT, the average age was 60 (compared with 38 in Australia)

        At best, 66% of mechanically ventilated patients die anyway. But probably more than that (more like 80%)

        Even if we had NO ventilators, and even if the average age in Australia was 58
        Mortality would still only be 1.8%

        In reality, when we do have SOME ventilators (for triaging the patient’s most likely to make a difference in), and the average age is 38%
        The true mortality will probably be ~1.0% with treatment, and ~1.2% without treatment, and maybe ~1.05% with treatment of the most marginal cases

        Its f all

  35. I’ve heard there will be an “ICU for ICU” approach to allocating limited ICU beds.

    COVID-19 positive patient will be asked to play hide and seek in the dedicated COVID Wards.

    If they are spotted within a certain time, bed allocator shouts outs ‘ICU!’ and said patient doesn’t get a spot and must go home.

    It’s a great way to weed out the old, the fat and the stupid. Plus it’s a bit of fun at the same time.

  36. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    NSW has 1791 cases of Chinaflu, with 174 since yesterday. That’s doubling each 7.5 days.

    Haven’t seen the charts, but it’s slowing down I think.

        • Wrinkled Sachs

          His theory is that the virus will weaken, all viruses just weaken and die out – often through mutation.

          Its the sort of myth Alex Jones was just kicked out of Google Play and Apple Store for pushing.

          Very little difference between doctorx and your average run of the mill global warming denialist, anti-vaxxer flat earther, young earther, crystal healing, reiki loving homeopath.

          • I’ve now been told by 2 climate change deniers that the occurrence of this pandemic somehow disproves the gist of climate change. Could also be proof that Dog is a bloke because clearly he is unable to multi-task so as to deliver two catastrophes at the same time.

          • that is not my theory
            all epidemics end that way (virus weakening and people gaining immunity), all scientists know that,
            The reason for different opinions here is complex but it can be attributed to two major things – uncertainties about (mortality, infectiousness, symptomatic presentation, …) due to it’s novelty, and confusion about number of positive cases as a direct proxy for total number of cases
            that over reliance on fancy DNA testing is making us blind
            in other words we can’t see the forest for the trees

            if there was no direct test, most of hard hit countries like Italy and Spain would have been much better by now
            tests we do are useful only initially to prevent epidemic taking over, now in places like Italy and Spain they are mostly useless

          • Nah, it’s legit – why virus such as myx (runs to google) myxomatosis and calicivirus loose effectiveness over time. It stands to reason; if you kill your host too quickly s/he doesn’t have the chance to pass it on before they croak.
            *all pronouns correct, which is another sort of virus.

      • lol. You say testing is missing the majority of cases then make a big call that the pandemic is rolling over from the numbers reported over the last two days. Can’t have it both ways buddy.

        • since nothing changed in testing criteria, number of confirmed cases is good proxy for general trend
          for example, if tests are failing to discover 80% of cases who are asymptomatic, that would be equally be the case now or in a week as it was a weeks ago.

          • Wrinkled Sachs

            OR, much more likely because we had three cruise ships dump a few hundred cases directly into society who were all tested at the same time and hence massively spiked the numbers.

            Those people infected hundreds more as they wandered back to Mornington and Sydney north shore – but we wont know about them for another week.

            Your cognitive, selective, confirmation bias is just so ridiculous – surprised you can brush your teeth without seeing as proof Fluoride is a conspiracy to make us impotent and acquiescent.

          • ApproachingZero

            The appearance of “slowing” is due to a decrease in cruise ship cases. The number of non-cruise cases will continue to rise.

          • If cruise ships were responsible for the rise of cases that we have curve flat for a while.

    • Australia is different!

      I believe that the virus in Australia, exposed to constant talk of property prices, has decided to self-euthanize.

      There’s only so much bullsh1t exposure it can handle.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Closing the border means we don’t have to add those infected overseas to the count. The worrying part is out of the 1791 cases in NSW, there are 170 of them whose infection source cannot be traced. In Italy, one asymptotic superspreader started the epidemic, and we may have one in NSW.

      https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/how-italian-doctors-failed-to-stop-coronavirus-super-spreader-marathon-runner-at-outbreak-epicentre-infected-13-people-including-his-pregnant-wife-two-doctors-three-bar-goers-and-a-77-year-old-woman-who-died/ar-BB10vFxk?li=BBoPU0R

  37. How long until the RBA takes all the deferred property loans of the banks books and puts them on its balance sheet?

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      I’m thinking the Banks might be the new landlords.
      30% renters to double?

    • haroldusMEMBER

      If only there was something a landlord could do to make a property more attractive to renters!

      Poor lordylands.

      • If only there was something a local employer could do to make jobs more attractive to locals!

        Poor lordyovers.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      “Personally, I own short-term rentals and made the decision to not take any bookings until later in the year; I don’t want guests to be unsafe.”

      Yes love, you’re doing it people’s safety. Of course you are. Never worried about folk having to live rough because of your greed now did you?

    • haroldusMEMBER

      The other thing is, how soon will the lordylands dump the long term tenant as soon as the short term market lifts again?

      In a microsecond, methinks.

      • Exactly you would have to be highly suspicious of renting one of those places in the current year.

    • ‘“People look at this industry and think it’s full of greedy landlords, but it’s not the truth – a lot are mum-and-dad landlords, especially in regional areas where they rely on the extra income to help pay their bills and cover costs of their properties,” Morrison says.’
      Putting aside for a second the greed argument and that being a mum and dad doesn’t preclude greed, if these spruikers gave a genuine fuch about mums and dads they would be lobbying to lower the costs of said mum and dads properties and bills or cease taking actions which increase those costs. I know of course that isn’t the spruiker’s, rentier’s and bank’s bag of powder. The hamster wheeling and speaking out of both sides of the mouth is just too much sometimes.

      • This.

        They always play the Mum and Dad card. Fk Mum and Dad, they had the choice to invest in something else but chose the lazy way out of flipping properties. They can eat sht along with the rest of the FIRE industry.

        • Use the expression ‘Mums and Dads’ liberally, as you do such clunkers as ‘Diversity is our strength’ and ‘1slam is a religion of peace’.

          It’s a total ‘Get out of Gaol Free Card’ line.

      • The term ‘sharing economy’ is such a furphy.

        It’s not drivers who are getting a paid passenger as they drive themselves to their work – it’s not carpooling, it isn’t incidental.

        It’s not mostly owners of houses getting income for a spare room, here and there – it isn’t incidental, the primary use of these places is for profit, not for owner habitation.

        We need to kill the bogus term ‘sharing economy’.

        Repeal the feels!

      • There are far more ‘mums and dads’ that are struggling with paying the rent because of AirBnB, verus the ‘mums and dads’ that are supplementing their income by renting out a spare room on AirBnB.

        If it was about the poor ‘mums and dads’ then it would be better to make AirBnB illegal.

        But off course, AirBnB is loved my Morrison because it keeps that great virtue of high house prices going. Damn affordability for a basic need, such as shelter.

        Morrison, as we know, goes for the easiest options – it’s easier to keep house prices up (keep negative gearing going and other tax concessions, don’t include the residence in asset testing for pensions, and keep turbo charged mass immigration going). It’s far harder to develop and enact policies and laws to ensure housing affordability.

    • I have been looking for a rental property in Pyrmont and have definitely noticed an increase in “fully furnished” rental properties.

      I also notice many people still in denial with their asking rents. There are those that have dropped their rents by 20-30% but the majority of landlords haven’t realised the population ponzi is over. No more hundreds of thousands of tourists. No more hundreds of thousands of international students. No more close to full employment and everyone being able to live by themselves in a shoe-box-sized apartment. This is going to be big.

        • Do they come with a free live-in foreign maid, that you only have to occasionally throw scraps to and let them live in a cupboard?

    • Zombie Apocalypse

      We endured 6 months of torment from an Air BnB across the road from our residential home on the Mornington Pen, the Melbourne based owner basically told us that we lived in a “holiday location” (her words) and that we had to put up with it. The same owner was recently encouraging guests to use the property to self-isolate. Needless to say, we’re celebrating.

        • Might help it you could identify what those might be specifically rather than suggest such … quite arbitrary and open ended.

          On the other hand I can be specific about groups or individuals with attribution.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I keep a picture of mine as an embedded gif on my desktop background, surrounded by a picture frame and the rough outline of a darkened attic.

    • what about us with cognitive dissonance?
      (does it fall into another case of whatab-autism?)

    • Good idea: starting with your own as nothing you’ve said is cogent or valid, and seems intended to uphold singular biases with flawed assumptions.

  38. Lol

    Am I hearing the sound of pennies dropping?

    This was a mixture of natural hysteria and opportunistic con job

    The panic will be over by Easter

    there won’t even be recriminations

    we’ll have to endure the msm

    “We came together and beat this Australia”
    “See? Mult1cutural1sm works!”
    “We need to help the banks and corporations get back on their feet”

    And house prices? Yeah, not down

    Sorry you dumb c n t s

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      This is one of the instance where I’m happy to be wrong. If it’s over by Easter it would be wonderful.

      There is no way it’ll be over by Easter in the USA though. Their numbers are very, very bad.

    • $$$ MR INFINITY $$$ QUANTITATIVE EASE ME

      House were going to go down10%15% anyway now it’s 20%30% this time next year. Unless they unleash mass migration and massively huge infurstructur programme turning Norths arid lands in to power generation to sell to Asia and water storage from the wet North queensland funnelled down to southern states

    • ApproachingZero

      Good of you to put a deadline. We’ll see if you’re right in 14 days. Somehow I doubt it.

    • I’d really like to see the news that’s got you so h0rny, Coming. It must be something good, right? Can’t see any of it in your post though.

      You must have a f*ckload of mortgage debt with how excited you are?

    • Sorry Coming … but there is a woeful lack of data to support anything you suggest, just the amount of time alone precludes it.

    • The government has taken the approach to allow infection up to a point where they will need to shut everything down to prevent hospital overloading. In my opinion it is a dangerous game. Hospitals have been asked to expand their ICU capacity by 5 times but with every hospital trying to order ventilators, monitors and everything else much like OS there will be limited capacity to deal with very sick patients. There is also a shortage of PPE in Australia. I know this because I am involved in recommisioning old equipment to prepare for this. It is why there is talk of reusing veteranarian ventilators which are old hospital product.
      We are also approaching colder months and with the government’s approach this will drag on for at least 6 months or indefinitely until a vaccine is produced. Analyse the government’s announcements since this started, talk of herd immunity, flattening the curve, scaleable responses etc all indicate there was never any real intention to isolate and eradicate this virus. They are hoping for manageable infections and gradual immunity through the population.

      • Could be (and I emphasize, could be), an appropriate way to deal with a second, deadlier wave, via community immunity (hey that rhymed, I’m a poet…..).

        Case in point, China during the Spanish Flu (the Original Chinese Flu). They might have gotten immunity by getting the original wave, whilst the rest of the world suffered with their exposure to the second wave, without exposure to the ‘first’ wave. China’s cases were much lower than other countries – relatively speaking.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I warned when the Corn Laws were introduced that we were on a slippery slope to the kind of half-assed economic thinking that MMT crystalises. No one listened. And here we are.

      Damn Whigs.

      • Firstly MMT is not economic[s – grand theory of everything – especially as deduced with the help of some dead old guys or a shining light or ones dog … so original.

        MMT is just a description, that’s all, and how that might shape policy formation in a democratic system. This is contra to decades of so called economists working without a functional model of the monetary or financial system, yet felt authoritative on dictating socioeconomic policy anyway.

        I mean the elites funded neoliberalism being the supreme beings they are … lmmao look who is the first to run away from its fruits …

        PS. the Chicago school applied monetarism administration with some bells and whistles on the side – fail … now were in the quasi monetarist administration … its failing .. so what does MMT have to do with ideological administration.

      • Juvenile antics from those watching their pet ideas meet reality Gav.

        The corvid lock down is sorta like the ideological lock down transpiring over some time since the GFC at least, some seem to think[???] presenting a small target is the same as an argument.

        How is your past affiliation with some of those metaphysical breathers panning out for you now mate.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Still it is those Juvenile antics have the less informed stumbling across and discovering your, often a little to cryptic yet, outstanding judgment and understanding.
          Love you stuff Skip.

  39. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    so pay cuts for everyone except public servants so far?
    who remembers when PS got paid less cause of benefits of job security?

    • I member!!

      Was discussing this a few weeks ago with some ex-military friends who got their trades in the service. Trade positions in defence force used to pay about $10k-$15k less p/a than private sector but had all the “benefits” (debatable). Now most trades are paying more in the service than in private sector and you still get the benefits. I’ve seriously been considering signing up (will have to lose 40kg first lol)

        • I’ve been in both public and private and there is no difference. Both have their share of bludgers and red tape.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        I’m surprised I didn’t see recruitment officers handing out leaflets on those centrelink queues

    • Member when they actually had to make tough decisions, every day, without the use of consultants?

      I member!

        • A lot of PS I know are supporting kids made redundant and because of their income are ineligible for support. Fair enough. Same people are also out supporting what retail and restaurants are doing take-a-ways. Cut their pay by 20%, then where don’t you want them to spend the money?

          • innocent bystanderMEMBER

            a lot of non PS I know are in the same boat.
            and they are doing it tough while trying to support kids, staff, and businesses they support by being a client of them.
            thought we were all in this together?

          • We are and reckon there’s a good slab of people are doing the right thing as well. There’s an old saying that you can’t help poor people by becoming one. Those that are still on good wages need to be encouraged to safely spend to support those businesses who are still open. If I had my way I’d funnel dollars to local councils to employ people on six or nine month contracts to walk around with a whipper snipper, mower or a tin of paint and do stuff. All can be done safely. I’ve worked in both private and public sectors and quiet frankly seen overpaid deadsh1ts who are way out of their depth in both.

    • One thing I recall with the PS vs Private pay rates is that the PS always lags due its drawn out and negotiations and length of agreements. If there is growth in Private the PS will miss out on it until the next agreement. Then, if there is a downturn, Private responds yet the PS just keeps to its agreement.
      Chatting with different PS folk I gather that there is a hesitancy to slash the wages of one of the only groups receiving a steady income at this point in time. Perhaps they could do it like income tax, the cuts come in at a certain threshold and then there is a top that no one earns above.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        not my experience here with WA PS. Used to do work for them and still have friends working in it. Salaries got way in advance of private since, oh, 15 years or more.

    • “who remembers when PS got paid less cause of benefits of job security”

      You’ve got it wrong. All well and good accepting a job in private enterprise when large bonuses are all but guaranteed. This is the time those bonuses disappear and you are retrenched or asked to take a pay cut. This is the time those who accepted a public service job get rewarded for not chasing big bonuses.

      To partially answer your question on the date: It was a couple years after the GFC. I had been a pay-by-the-hour contractor for fifteen years. Contracting was high risk high reward. That reward had gradually been compressed via importing cheap labour, from earning 50%+ more than permanent staff, down to just a tad more. In around 2011, SMH ran an article about cocky young contractors giving up the opportunity to work as permanent employees for the privilege of earning a piddly 15% more as a contractor. It was that precise moment I realised we had reached peak stupidity, and that I not only needed to find a permanent job, that it specifically needed to be in the public service. I always knew this day would come.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        no, I ‘ve got it right.
        very few PS jobs comparable to private jobs scoring bonuses.
        and, as for contractors, you have proved my point – contractors taking job security in the PS for little financial loss. And again, those sort of roles not a significant percentage of workforce.

        • PS wages very stable and in line with inflation. If you are demanding a 20% pay cut for PS then you actually don’t get it.

          Contractors rates have dramatically fallen relative to inflation, rather than PS rates increasing. If I were to go back to contracting I would nominally be earning about the same as 2011.

          • innocent bystanderMEMBER

            non PS wages have just gone to zero for a lot of people and for a lot of others greatly reduced, which part of this don’t you get?

          • “who remembers when PS got paid less cause of benefits of job security”

            Which part of “job security” don’t you understand?

        • When times are good, private is the way to go, the bonuses sh*t all over the piddly inflation capped raises the government guys got. Unfortunately a lot of those bonuses got p*ssed up against the wall because they were seen are the norm. A lot of guys assumed they would go on forever and never treated them as “bonuses” and saved them.
          Well now the times have changed and its the guys in government jobs whose time to shine is now. They have the job security and stable wages. Good for them. Swings and roundabouts.

  40. Michael Reddell on the response of the NZ government to coronavirus:

    “Much of the stuff governments and their agencies do really doesn’t matter that much in the scheme of things. The crisis that currently sweeps over us, sweeping away civil liberties, even Parliament, casting hundreds of thousands onto the welfare rolls and probably slashing GDP by a third or more, destroying countless businesses really does. Our government – and probably most of their overseas peers – failed us badly, simply wasting very scarce time, whistling as they kept their spirits high, even as the boat was about to go under. Could they have stopped it? Who really knows now? But they – all of them – Health, Treasury, Reserve Bank, ministers, and countless other agencies could, and should, have been a great deal better prepared and ready to act firmly. They owed that to New Zealanders. They let us down.”

    https://croakingcassandra.com/2020/03/27/hopeless-and-complacent/

  41. We are at 16 deaths now
    Around 0.4%

    This is if you are willing to accept there are only 3900 cases

    Of course the reality is that there are at least 10x and probably 100x or more untested cases , placing the current mortality in the 0.04-0.004% range
    mortality lags cases , but it is certainly not going to be above the range of a “bad flu”

    Even more interesting will be to assess excess deaths in 2020

    It is possible that it could even be negative , due to reduction in pollution, RTAs, workplace accidents etc and the fact that “experts” have stated that up to 2/3 of all corona deaths may have died from something else anyway

    We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in this epidemic,” Ferguson said. In other words, we don’t know the extent to which COVID-19 will increase annual deaths above the level that otherwise would have been expected. “By the end of the year, what proportion of those people who’ve died from COVID-19 would have died anyhow?” Ferguson asked. “It might be as much as half to two-thirds of the deaths we’re seeing from COVID-19, because it’s affecting people who are either at the end of their lives or in poor health conditions. So I think these considerations are very valid.”

    it will be difficult to tease out from the data, but at the very least we can see if there is a reduction in influenza deaths this year

    On the other hand, the hysteria/lockdown will also cause a number of excess deaths: suicide, delayed cancer treatments, delayed colono/broncho/gastro/colposcopy, delayed and reduced primary care visits

    This number may well exceed the number of excess corona deaths saved by the lockdown particularly if the mortality continues to be as pitiful as it seems it will be

    • Interested to know your thoughts on the impact of lock-downs and immunity if there is a deadlier second wave?

      Were we better off letting the virus spread, killing off (for the most part) those that would have died in the next 12 – 24 months anyway (and yes, like a seasonal flu, collecting some unsuspecting ‘healthy’ people along the way) – PLUS building up a wider community immunity in the case there is a deadlier second wave (that attacks a wider range of people)?

      • Don’t think too hard mate
        That’s what I was doing on here a few weeks ago: I got told to read the medium.com article

        Just close your eyes and scream at scomo to close the schools

    • DingwallMEMBER

      So how do you reconcile the Italian, Spanish, Wuhan, and now US experiences against our numbers? You are suggesting we should have just ignored this virus and also seen through our “leaders gameplay” as an “opportunistic con job” ? Should we be business as usual and just view it as a bad cold in some people? I guess we can’t compare your hypothesis (is it a hypothesis?) to what we are doing now….. but as others have said if we get a short storm finishing by Easter (this year?) that would be great…… though Winter is coming.

      • I don’t reconcile the Chinese experience because it’s too opaque

        As far as Spain and Italy goes
        -Covid outbreak occurred in winter/spring which is peak time for influenza deaths (peak deaths for influenza occur in feb and March)
        Many patients would have had concomitant influenza infection, or would have got influenza if they had not had corona
        -average age in Italy is 46 (cf 38 Australia)
        -incidence of smoking in Italy is 22% (cf 13% Australia)
        -Italy has 2x population of Australia in 1/25th area

        But mainly the total number of cases is likely to be WILDLY underestimated
        That and there will be a large proportion of deaths where corona will be a comorbidity but secondary to other causes (as mentioned feb/March is peak time in the northern hemisphere for influenza deaths – more than 50% occur at this time. But also deaths from all causes are more common )

        Why choose Italy as your comparison country anyway ? It is Italy and Spain that are the outliers here – a rational person would approach this with that in mind

        • DingwallMEMBER

          Ah rational …… wouldn’t a rational assessment also say that the total number of general flu cases, like Covid-19 cases, is also likely to be WILDLY underestimated. Happy Easter hopefully …………..

          • that is already accounted for in the estimated flu incidence and mortality calculations

            Read the WHO paper on it

    • So the hysteria lockdown will cause additional deaths but the inability of anyone to get a hospital bed or get treated during a massive surge in Covid cases isn’t of much concern. Fancy needing your appendix out but there are no hospital staff available to operate.

      • Where is the surge ?
        How many corona patients are hospitalised right now ?
        How many patients with appendicitis have been turned away?

        • I hesitate to respond seeing I reckon you have turned into a troll but …

          Look at the UK figures: 1k dead on 17k confirmed cases. Look at the chart in this article, look at the lag between deaths and cases. Of course there is a relatively short period where the number of cases rises rapidly whilst the number of deaths stays low.

          https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52079922

          In the cholera pandemics that raged around the world in the 19th century the dehydration and toxic reaction were so severe that people were dropping dead within hours of becoming infected. In contrast this virus is taking up to a couple of weeks to cause symptoms and over a week to kill.

          • There have been over 1000 deaths and only 136 recovered. Two weeks ago they had 21 deaths.
            Two weeks ago they had 1100 cases, now they have over 17,000.
            The ratio of new cases to recovered cases is currently 2500.
            People are taking a long time to properly recover if they are lucky.
            You don’t see how this has the potential to overwhelm our hospital system within a week or two?
            https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

          • No I don’t think it is clear at all

            There is no evidence that

            a) lockdown has slowed the spread of the virus
            b) intubation and ventilation improves survival in the majority of patients
            c) mortality from coronavirus would have markedly increase the overall number of deaths in the next 12-24 months

            With regards to a) check the laxity of regulations in singapore and sweden for instance, and compare their case growth rate with other countries
            The lockdown has been an absolute joke anyway, as international arrivals continue, hairdressers go for multi-hour long appointments, and people pack Coles/Woolworths all day to touch the same objects as other people, Many australians generally ignore this crap

            with regards to b) I have posted evidence from various sources that describe the mortality in ventilated coronavirus patients as being between 80 and 97%.
            Even the most optimistic data from the UK suggests that the mortality in ventilated patients is 66% (overoptimistic for the reasons I described in another post)

            With regards to c) I present the statement proferred by the “expert” Neil Ferguson to UK parliament declaring that as many as 2/3 of patients who die of coronavirus would be expected to die from something else

            Now, how many marginal deaths are we saving from a lockdown?
            It will be minimal because a) we don’t know that we can really slow the infection rate with a generalized lockdown b) we don’t know that we can make any difference to ventilated patients anyway c) most of these people would have died anyway in the next 12-24 months

            Will we save some extra lives by lockdown?
            Yes, undoubtedly

            Can we put a “price” on human life?
            Yes, we certainly can and do all the time. Certainly in the medical profession/medicare/health department we do

            Are elderly and sick people’s lives worth less than other’s?
            yes, undoubtedly so. That’s why we invented the concept of QALYs

            The economic cost will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars
            The intangible cost in quality of life, mental health etc will be additional to that

        • Two weeks ago there were 250 cases and two weeks before that there were 25. If you don’t put in movement restrictions you get a situation like Wuhan or New York or any other number of obvious examples showing us how not to handle an outbreak,

  42. US REAL ESTATE MEETS END-OF-DAYS

    https://twitter.com/Ben__Rickert/status/1243883073193693192?s=20

    “The S&P United States REIT Index Measures The Investable Universe Of Publicly Traded Real Estate Investment Trusts Domiciled In The United States. Dropping Like A Rock! Real Estate Prices In The US Are Toast.”

    Strayas turn soon.

    LMAO

    But wait, there’s more!

    https://twitter.com/Renegade_Inc/status/1244108043534708736?s=20

    “Leveraged Real Estate Getting Destroyed”

    BUY A HOUSE!
    lolz

    • It’s difficult to have any sympathy for the Blackrocks of the world who sucked up all the distressed housing after the GFC only to lease back properties to previous owners. Now they are faced with their entire model being destroyed by unemployed renters. Geez I’ll be livid if those aholes get bailed out.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It’s the RE version of COVID social distancing – they wouldn’t want to give it away!

      • I haven’t been following Domain rental figures. How much has this changed recently?

      • Lol, patience. The great deflation is coming. It has already started with some (albeit not many) reducing rents. That is why so many LL are bleating in horror and disbelief as all their worst nightmares combine to overturn their dearly held religious beliefs about property. The brain damage being inflicted on the them is beautiful to behold. A friend has told me the building she rents in has had their strata fees reduced, so some landlords have proposed a motion that all landlords in the building reduce rent. It starts with a trickle.

          • I laughed. But the images in my head are more of explosive Lordylands heads exploding as the matrix is slowly revealed to them

        • Check this from the change.org whine

          Jimei Chen
          18 minutes ago
          My tenant owes me $15000 already. On 11/3/20, the tenant was given a notice of termination and 28/3 was the day he was suppose to leave. Now because of Covid19 he is trying to legally avoid eviction for over 6 months paying nothing. This is extremely unfair to landlords who were in the process of terminating tenancy.

          and

          Lily Zhang
          27 minutes ago
          My tenant owes me $15000 already. On 11/3/20, the tenant was given a notice of termination and 28/3 was the day he was suppose to leave. Now because of Covid19 he is trying to legally avoid eviction for over 6 months paying nothing. This is extremely unfair to landlords who were in the process of terminating tenancy.

          • Hahahaha! Love it! One because there might actually be some truth to what is written and therefore some real grief and angst in their greedy self absorbed lives and two; JHFC the urge to copy even in a bleating oh woe is me petition. And three there is a class of people who truly deserve to learn some harsh lessons about the true nature of the society they willing chose (and schemed) to migrate to. Yeah when the shtf while we may do it incompetently and not to the degree that we used to, the instinct in Aussie society is still to protect people. You would imagine that people from the mainland would appreciate that instinct, might actually treasure it given the nature of the beast they have escaped from (some do) but no, they can’t appreciate the jewel they hold in their hand because they do not comprehend. I love it. This was the cohort who used to ask me while I was in China ‘Which western country has the most social security? That is the country I want to migrate to”. Social security ain’t so great now is it? What do you reckon their complaint will be when hungry, poor and angry people decide fck it, I’ll get what I need any way I can and the cops can’t maintain order like they do back home? They’re just so brain dead these people, can’t get over their ‘progamming’. I hope their greedy souls shrivel up in horror

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Not seen too many people with a first name of “Orange” or is that his handle like “Deep T”.

        Then again there were 25 Lemons in 2017 (US baby names) as well as 24 Fanta’s.

        Others
        Tesla (141)
        Milady (12)
        Sirprince (5)
        Shooter (14)
        Slayer (6)
        Beowulf (7)
        I-am (21)
        Babygirl (7)
        God (8)

        and my favourite abcde (6) pronounced absidee

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          A man should always give his kids his first name. All of them. Always. (unless he reckons the Mrs/Mr isn’t going to want custody when they break up)

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      I laughed so hard and I’m so bored at home I made a vodka, orange juice, mint, dash of apple juice, tiniest drop of Campari martini and it’s called : The Orange Wang

  43. WTB second hand 20kg Olympic barbell in SA.

    Will pay for shipping from interstate also

  44. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Ok. So now that we know that the virus destroys your balls, which one of these outcomes would you choose ?

    – you survive the virus but with ongoing lung issues at times like shortness of breath, hacking up goobers, OR

    – you survive the virus but your balls no longer work and your voice is higher.

    Which outcome do you choose?

    • How about this…

      A) Your property portfolio is wiped out but you can get Newstart for the rest of your life and have a solid client base willing to pay cash-in-hand for wristies

      B) you manage to hang on to one Burwood IP, but you can’t get Newstart and the tenants will only ever be chubby northern Mongolian snow shovellers

      Which way do you go?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Eh?

      “Property investors contribute a lot of taxes and cheap rental houses for the country.”

      Yeah nah…

    • Check how many of those are actually citizens. No bailouts if they are temporary residents or permanent residents. In fact, tax rates of temporary worker or permanent residents should be doubled to bail out citizens.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      “We hope that the government can issue relevant laws and regulations.” That sounds like it was written in Beijing.
      How many of these properties were bought ignoring the fcuking “relevant “ laws
      …..just fcuk off !

    • You’re not wong about the Chinese pile-on with that petition.

      Must have been promoted on WeChat.

    • Just read a few thousand of the comments, notes:
      Only three non-Asian names, still “ethnic” with very stilted English
      At least 50% of comments saying they have lost their jobs and can’t afford their own rent/mortgage payments, let alone the IP
      One uber Asian (name and lack of written English skills) was having a whinge they are a “New Zealander” and have lost their job, don’t get dole due to being a kiwi (lol) and cannot afford mortgage payments without rent and says govt is unfair – that is hilarious