Sunday Supplement: 15 March 2020

Isolation, Tim Storrier, 1978, Art Gallery of NSW

 

Markets & Macro

Asia

Americas

Europe

Terra Incognita

…and furthermore…

…and coronavirus…

 

Sunday morning extra Coronavirus links

…..On the school closures I received a tipoff yesterday from a government source to the effect that there would be a public school closure announced in Victoria – possibly after a Prime Minister address to the nation on Monday morning – to take effect as of Monday evening (with children being told to take their books etc home, and schools being told to do what they could to support home/on-line learning).  Some of you people are public service (State or Commonwealth) – if you have information and don’t mind sharing it can you beam an email to [email protected] (discretion is assured). G.

 

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Dude. WE know.

        What WE’d like to see instead of that graph is a link to the place you posted it. A place where lots of elderly LNP voters can see what their greed has wrought them and their very immediate future.

        Oh. Wait…
        Never mind. Please carry on…

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Well actually I just got it off twitter and thought it worth sharing

          Most elderly LNP voters have issues with twitter – often with the size of the font

  1. Discussing with wife my directive to real estate agent to not let any potential buyers touch anything at open homes – shock, then realisation of accuracy

    Crazy times

    Couldn’t have picked a worse time to sell

  2. After going to the gym on Saturdays me and a few mates there go for a coffee nearby (usually >10 people). Its usually super busy, chock-a-block, 10 minute wait in line to order then find a table. Today we walked in, owner directs us over to a table they’d prepared earlier for us. Starting to quiet down, a lot.

    Went to local woolies after to stock up on meat for the freezer and more canned goods, place was busy and out of TP (lots of subcontinentals), but otherwise wasn’t going too crazy honestly. Young bird was running around cleaning self checkout terminals, lots of people using trolley cleaning wipes etc.

    Point of all this? Likely usual, no point really, but interesting times

    Finally, at least we’re not like the cucks in canada
    https://imgur.com/gallery/gWhGthB

    • Anecdata- northern rivers coles and woolies variously out of TP and rice / pasta and other non perishables for over a week

      TP at chemists , aldi etc

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          It’s funny you should mention balanced diet. All the rice had gone, except some packets of brown rice. And the freezer had plenty of cauliflower rice. Plenty of frozen vegetable choices left, except frozen onion. Maybe a lot of BBQ’s planned? All the meat and mince gone, of course. TP and wipes gone, but still “DIY” cleaning sprays and bleach on shelves. I’m sure it all means something but I’m not sure what.

    • We are at Leura, leaving today, no one was out having breakfast yesterday morning, guy at the café said one of the workers kids went to school where the teacher had corona, so she was staying away from work
      Pretty tough conditions, right after the fires

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      We are indeed.
      Some sooner than others.

      PS Charm Sushi sell a Merlot 2014 of the moogoobugaboo too. Bought one. Will advise once it’s under deconstruction.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well, in-keeping with my earlier promise, that’s a you problem. The Merlot is mellow gold. And suitable for drunk plumbing.

          Points alround for everything actually.

    • That’s what I like to see, someone taking the timeout in the middle of a crises to put it all in perspective by expressing the long term view.
      In the long term we’re all dead.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        This is just a mere dress rehearsal for our next lIfe.
        And the next one lasts a very long time so some say

  3. So my missus and 5 of her teacher colleagues came down with flu-like symptoms after a kid came back sick from Indonesia last week. Went to the doctors, but they’re refusing to test her because she hasn’t come into contact with a known case. They’re also refusing to test the kid because he hasn’t been to a virus hot-spot recently. How do you deal with that kind of logic? I reckon this virus is everywhere, they know it, and they’re trying to hide it.

    On the plus side, if she really did have COVID-19, then the symptoms really are quite mild, nothing more than a mild flu. I’m coming down with it as well now – hopefully I can convince the doctors to finally do a test.

    • Get Ye to your local hospital’s fever clinic

      At least in nsw state pathology and privates (SNP, QML) are testing – my understanding 48 hr turnaround

    • You stole the words right out of my mouth Gav. This is what I have been telling people around around me.None believes me!

    • yeah. Tom Hanks not a coincidence. We are in the many thousands and probably tens of thousands. If true then the good news is the CFR a lot lower than stats suggest…that is unless they are recording a lot of deaths as a different illness.

      • The best way to go now the genie is well and truly out of the bottle is for the most vulnerable to isolate themselves. Elderly and those with medical conditions.

    • Is there really any reason to think that it’s coronavirus though? Like stepping back, a kid came from Indonesia sick and made others sick. Indonesia isn’t particularly notorious as a hotspot…

      • Well, I say mild, but it was still serious enough to prescribe her antibiotics and Ventolin. You’re right though, and chances are it is just the normal flu, but my point was that her, her sick colleagues, and the infected kid would have come into contact with hundreds of other children – surely it would have been prudent to test at least one of them?

        • My sisters colleague came back from Thailand, turned out she & family all positive & kids had given it to half the class (this is in Sweden)

    • This is why I think the mortality rate is pretty low and looks high only because they are testing the sickest patients, but yes it’s definetely been spreading around already for a while now. I reckon I got this in mid Jan before I even heard of coronavirus. Exact symptoms but turned out to be mild and lasted 1 week then lingered slightly for a 2nd week. Caught up with an ambo friend the other day and he says the hospitals are still not jam packed which suprised me. He said they are not testing, sending most ppl home and to come back if they get worse but most recover on their own. He has been told it’s less dangerous than the flu for most but a hell of a lot more contagious which is why a lot of ppl are dying because of the sheer number of cases occurring all at once.

    • Kids get 6-8 URTIs a year. Could be corona or just another URTI. We are a couple of weeks off the SHTF like it has in France just now. Word on the street is the hospitals there are struggling.
      The point is most people will be OK but if you have 2000 ICU beds and 20000 people needing ICU you have a massive problem. That is the crux of the problem, even though most will get a mild flu.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Look, I’ll put it out there, and I’m not just talking sh1t – I just get this horrible feeling that something doesn’t add up with this virus thing. There’s something fake. I just don’t know what it is bit something is not right.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Yeah dutton doesn’t have it and never has.
      He will leave hospital in a few days “cured”.
      I’ll leave it to others to run with the narrative

    • Reusachtige, Seems like you’ve forgotten to switch the old pen1s pump off again, please do so and let the blood return to your cerebellum.

    • You always put it out there. Just saying.

      I have no doubt that you are right. Our numbers are into the many thousands by now, possible many tens of thousands. Govt has a fair idea of where we sit on the curve which is why we have cancelled large group gatherings. I expect school holidays to be our lockdown period, possibly add one week before or after the school hols which start on 9th April

      They are also not going to waste a good crisis. Cash Ban will be rushed in on the 23rd, NIRP to follow soon after, and massive fiscal spending soon after that.

  5. Hey, come on people. Did we all forget about the climate, where have all the Extinction Rebels gone?
    I was a bit worried about what would happen if everyone starts eating their cans of baked beans, due to all the additional methane gas that is going to be produced and emitted into the environment by explosive bouts of hyper flatulence.
    Well, after enquiring with scientists about my concerns, they all agree that It could very well raise sea levels by 67.3mm and take 258 days off of the 12 years we have left.
    #DarkSmellyTimes #GretaSaveUs #StopBrazilianFartPorn

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      If Corona brings on a global economic shut down , in 6 months the pollution in the upper atmosphere which is acting like a heat shield, will dissipate causing a 0.5 degreeC increase in global temp.
      The Extinction Rebellion folk are self isolating in the name of common sense

  6. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    Bresic Whitney local office emailed me their auction results today. 7 of 15 sold plus 2 auctions postponed. They count that as 47% clearance but its 41% on my count. Inner West, Sydney.

  7. So what happens to the Aussie if the Fed cut big as suggested in the first link? Actually what happens to a whole heap of currencies?

  8. psychoanalysts have at last found why so many people buy loads of TP.
    when someone coughs, 100 people around them sheet themselves

  9. Ok I need some recommendations for a decent but not too expensive bubbly. I have decided to buy a case, get it delivered and I’m going to write the name of certain people who I consider to be reprehensible on each bottle. It will be consumed when and if they die from this thing. My aim is not to die until I’ve drunk all the bottles. Yes I know this makes me a horrible person on some level, but bvgger it I have an auto-immune disorder or two, and my immune system and psyche needs all the encouragement it can get in their self isolation, I figure death by schadenfreudgasm is the only way to approach this [about to be dire] situation. I’m going to put careful consideration into the name list, but XJP or some other past glorious leader will be on it (also that means I really need to stay alive cos they’ll be protected AF and get the best medical care available). And I will drink that bottle with relish given I lived in the belly of that beast for 17 years.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Is that not common though? I had pneumonia about 4 years ago and my lungs didn’t come good for months. Even walking around a golf course made me tired.

      • blindjusticeMEMBER

        If it’s caused by fibrosist then it’s permanent.
        Expect more lung cancers in the future too

      • A lot of people who survived SARS had damaged organs as a result of their infection. Chinese scientists have reported in non peer reviewed journal articles that many of the severe cases requiring ICU admission that had organ damage, often multiple. Now some of that could be due to the disease itself, or it could be due to the treatment. I would not be surprised if the Chinese treating doctors aren’t going a tad overboard on administering medications (this fits with my knowledge of, and first hand experience of the Chinese medical system), and this is having a negative impact on the patient’s long term health. But these are all details to understand at a later stage. However one reason why I am so adamant about trying to avoid infection is that I really couldn’t cope with a further decrease in quality of life due to organ damage. I honestly think I’d probably end up being suicidal. I’ve had 15 years of a fairly significant decreased quality in life due to CFS, endometriosis, chronic pain and a few poor mental health episodes ( stress/depressions and depression/angxiety) due to dealing with those three things. This thing really does seem to be perfectly designed to knock off the elderly, those in poor health or with systemic weaknesses and enough random healthy youngish people to have some extremely interesting social and economic impacts at the other end. I thought 6 weeks ago we were looking at European plague type lasting impacts, and nothing I have seen since has made me change my opinion, it has only strengthened.

        • Yes, will survive a cold, but after chemo last year, need to be very careful. Bar tend today confirmed a staff was being tested.

          Wonder if they’ll let the drinkers know if he’s positive… Might be time to steer clear of pub for mo

          Reminds me to go a clean hands… and spray keyboard with the old G20

        • Know IdeaMEMBER

          Hey @pop,

          Regardless of what happens, remember the infinite human resource of perseverance. We all must persevere, persevere and then persevere some more. We all, as individuals, have to be resolved to never give up until unpredictable fate takes final control.

  10. Greetings all, Ortega reporting from Europe, where armageddon is finally upon us.

    “France to CLOSE all bars, cafes, restaurants, cinemas”

    President advising citizens not to go outside.

    Ps. I think i have it (not tested yet, have the common symptoms) when I’m tested I’ll check back.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Australia is about 1 week behind France.

      Stay positive. China has shown it can be contained if everyone stay indoor for a month.

      • Don’t you mean ‘stay negative’? Testing positive is double-plus-ungood…

        In unrelated news, the next meeting of ‘Pedants’R’Us’ has been postponed in the view of government recommendations for gatherings of more that 500 persons

        • Yes, meetings of 499 or less are perfectly safe – from Monday. This weekend meetings of all sizes have been deemed safe.

          Follow gubbermint guidelines and all will be well.

  11. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Wuhan lockdown like this morn, only bike on the road to to Terry Hills only a couple of cars. Coackroaches hibernating for winter.

    • I was on a pub crawl last night in Brissy. It was pumping. If I don’t have the virus now I’ll never get it.

    • Yes, seems quiet this morning. Wifey even pointed out and she doesn’t usually notice these things.

  12. Reverse Transcriptase

    At what point do we get to point out that this:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-schools-offices-should-be-closed-immediately-experts-20200312-p549gi.html

    The number of people allowed on public transport would likely to be severely limited.

    “In a pandemic situation, you’d cut the number of people down to one person per seat,” said Associate Professor Adam Kamradt-Scott, who helped author the federal government’s influenza pandemic strategy.

    People standing would be required to give each other at least one metre of space.

    is completely uncoupled with the reality of tsunamis of New Australian Vibrants (TM) surging the rail platforms at Harris Park / Wentworthville / Westmead / Parramatta (NSW – aka ‘New, New Dehli’) due to the insane mass immigration practices of the last 20 years.

    • It could be good. They can’t get to work and will piss off back to India because they can’t pay the rent and are ineligible for welfare because they are here on temp visas .

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      Those who have voted LNP, Labor or Greens are at fault.

      Most of the country.

      How many people actively voted to change this?

  13. Will the markets even open up tomorrow morning?
    Or will they start at some undeterminable point and see what happens?

    It’s obvious, now, that those who expected this ‘squared up’ on Friday – the market won’t reopen ( if they close them) until it’s looking good and ‘up’ is the way to go. But what kind of World will they open into on,say, 30th April? One with far more business failures etc. So who knows where we go from here, and where we go from there?

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Australian markets will surely open, what happens after that bloodbath is anyones guess J.

      • I hope you’re right – daylight and antiseptic and all.
        But just as a matter of interest – where would you put your first-up bid on, say, ANZ, compared to Friday close?

        • The idea is that you stand aside and watch it all collapse into the abyss. Putting a bid on anything is akin to stepping into the traffic on the M1.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            I’m waiting to hear calls for banning of short selling – surely those calls can’t be too far away.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Yes, you’re only allowed to make money out of other people’s misfortune on the way up.

          • Yet another myth – that banning of short selling will mitigate the downside risks. It won’t. They tried in 2008 and didn’t work. And this time will not be different.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            I know – but to me it is usually a signal that the final bottom isn’t that far away – once they implement the ban it usually promotes one last vicious bear market rally as all the shorts puke their positions, before a final collapse as all the remaining liquidity in the market evaporates. Only then should you consider buying with their ears pinned back.

          • david collyerMEMBER

            The sharemarket is digital, so it can run without too much direct contact. We are certain to see further swingeing falls Monday as many reach for liquidity, rightly or wrongly. God help those with margin loans (me).

          • david collyer, I hope you have enough buffer. A market can sometimes swing to a ridiculously cheap level.

            On the other hand, I sense the bottom is near – at least for the stocks I own. Cameco traded at a 35% discount to its book value. I didn’t think it was possible to top up such a clear market leader at such a discount (my initial entry level was already at a reasonable discount). Deutsche Bank traded at a whopping 80% discount to its book value. I went in a bit too early, at a 75% discount, but I am fine with that. After all, it is impossible to precisely pick a bottom.

            I would be very happy to purchase a stock within 20% of the bottom. Within 10% I would be ecstatic.

          • 1 Dom

            Half the financial media is now writing about picking up bargain stocks, deal of a lifetime, buy buy buy.

            Nope.

            The bottom isn’t in until NOBODY is recommending buying.

          • I know, Dominic. Whether I have bought near the bottom or not is something I will only be able to find out in future. I only look at the fundamentals and the discounts when I buy. Many people won’t touch Deutsche Bank with a barge pole, but a CEO who commits a meaningful fraction of his monthly salary to purchasing his company’s shares usually delivers.

          • @davidcoliier. Congrats on lifting the tone with correct use of “swingeing”. Good word

  14. 9 days ago I wrote (and have made many similar posts around the same time where I was mocked for my alarmist views):

    “When this virus sinks its fangs into Europe and America over the next couple weeks, I think we’ll start seeing total mass hysteria.

    Especially as these reports that this destroys the central nervous system and is like an airborne AIDS gains more traction.

    Supermarkets will be stripped bare. It will become every man for himself.

    Small businesses soon going bankrupt, hundreds of thousands of casual staff with no work. Even if it doesn’t take hold in Australia, only the most desperate for money will be leaving their homes.

    The MAFS demographic, the Q+A demographic will not be psychologically equipped to deal with this.

    Total bedlam coming in two weeks time if this keeps ramping up in Europe and America.

    And that’ll be nothing. One month after the initial mass hysteria, hospitals will be completely overwhelmed, the public won’t even be allowed within 200 metres of a hospital entrance, thousands of people dying at home choking on lung fluid.”

    9 days ago many couldn’t envisage it (including most of the doom mongers on here).

    But it’s happened. Virtually all professional sports have been cancelled with a few hold outs playing behind closed doors (that’ll end pretty soon).

    Bedlam in supermarkets across the western world. Supermarkets stripped in some areas (can only imagine how many new infections from standing shoulder to shoulder in crowded supermarkets).

    Several parts of western Europe in lockdown now. Another week and you’ll see the whole of western Europe effectively under martial law. USA will likely follow soon after.

    It’s a little bit like the boiling frog analogy right now how this has crept up on the public and governments with everyone still thinking it’s under control.

    If someone told you that 3 months ago professional sports across the world would no longer be played, bars/cafe/restaurants shut throughout Europe, supermarkets stripped of food and cleaning products, hospitals in Italy running at 200% capacity leaving anyone over 65 for dead (soon to be experienced by Spain/Germany/USA), stockmarket yo-yoing 5-10% every day, it would be too far fetched to believe.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      If you look back, the virus can be contained if the country acts decisively. It remains contained in countries that shutdown its border and close down social interaction.

      The problem is denial. Western politicians stubbornly refuse to close down the border until infection has spread, then shut it down anyway. For all her faults, the NZ PM Jacinda Ardern is the only leader who is willing to act to save her countryman. Everyone else is telling their country to get infected : if you die, that is just too bad.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        This virus should see the end of Morrison, the medical Chief Officer, Labor, almost all MSM, and bring in to question everything this country does and stands for.

        Hopefully the entire country starts questioning the left’s ridiculous position on most things.

        Long term, this virus is potentially a great thing for Australia.

      • It’s actually a bit more complicated than that. Yes shutting things down could contain it if we only had less then 100
        actual cases and they were imported. But once you have community spread shutdowns aren’t enough. The way South Korea and China stopped or slowed the spread required a much more complex health system response then telling people to stay home. At the moment the shut down is the latest marketing campaign to look like we are doing something. What’s actually needed is very wide and fast testing, plus isolation. Home isolation isn’t good enough, people just spread it to their families. You actually have to take infected people away from their family, that’s why China set up separate fever clinics and took everyone’s temperature and built those hospitals. The western media is downplaying the sophistication of the response necessary to get on top of this.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          We needed a great leader to close borders over a month ago.

          Instead we have a shonk marketing real estate wnker. Then we have Labor who won’t say a thing for fear of seeming rcst.

          We needed media in the interests of Australia and Australians. Instead we’ve got a completely captured real estate lobby driven MSM along with the ABC. People like Hamish McDonald and Lisa Wilkinson lead the nations narrative.

          We deserve what’s coming.

          • But more testing would find more cases and that would be inconvenient for the powers that be. Better to let the peasants die in silence. Less economic impact that way.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          Apparently test kits are being made via Roche who are struggling to keep up.

          FFS, how hard is it to just get the chemicals, instead of the fancy kit in plastic vial and applicator?

          All tied up in corporate patents, money and red tape no doubt.

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        Jacinda Ardern is no hero, this was a panic response to the explosion in virus cases last week that her Govt didnt bother to tell anyone about until today. Previous cases were confined to Auckland but the new cases are all over the country, and as they are all tourists it’s impossible to contact trace the others they have been in contact with. We now have a boat with over 4000 potential virus victims sitting in the harbour. I thought it was highly suspicious that NZ wasnt seeing more cases, but put it down to the fact that they are refusing to test anyone, when the reality is that they were withholding information so that Jacinda could have her moment of glory.

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            Test results from new cases were in Thurs and Friday, she knew about the boat on Sat, announcement of isolation on Sat afternoon, told the media about the new cases and the boat on Sunday.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            I was just suss when she made it clear the services were going ahead. She made a point of it. Then next day, shut it all down.

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      “the Q+A demographic will not be psychologically equipped to deal with this”

      This growing demographic were always going to wreck the west. Even i hadn’t thought it was coming this soon.

  15. The Windy City

    ok, that’s 1000+ comments, across three articles, by 7am Sunday. in line with general exponential trends.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      A far cry from when Harroldus and I were by our
      lonesome, can’t remember the handful of others in that era.

    • Can you get Corona from reading the comments section? It’s quite crowded in here… we might have to disband this gathering if we’re over 500 persons…

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Harrold, we remember the time before it was called macrobusiness used to read it since inception ( pre MB), but I can’t remember posting comments before it changed to MB

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            I was banned by The Daily Reckoning plus another one (can’t remember which) so came across pre MB when just starting up and stayed without being banned.

      • Harold, Boom, Reusa. I am in awe (no sh!t).

        what you have seen since the beginning, I cannot understand. I am learning as fast as I can, however

        • haroldusMEMBER

          In the early days, reus didn’t even have one IP.

          He was a looser (TM) shutin just like the rest of us.

          Then he discovered investing in property and became the god-like figure he now is.

          He only comes here to feel superior.

  16. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Told her months to stock up, but nah she’d rather tell me how to do engineering. Shelves were bare at Warringah Mall early this morn, she thought as usual she would be the only one there but it was full of young guys stocking up. Sitting here in her car, bike with flat tyre in the back now at Mona Vale Woolies looking at young men pushing trolleys full of TP.
    Keeps saying it’s her way of losing weight but my answer is eating wrong gains weight.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Lovey is back to thinking it’s real. Went to doctors yesterday because of a chest infection and they told her to go wait in her car. She panicked. I’d been telling her we’ll all be locked up at home for 4-6 weeks. She pooh-poohed. Her doctor told her longer. She panicked. Sh!t just got real.

      Jack the Dog is good except for his arthritis. He still hobbles along happily though. Two of my regular doggy friends I see regularly on my outings have died recently though, which made me sadder than I would have thought. Seems like there’s something going around.

      • Yeah, MB, what would *you* know… she knows you! She lives with you… you’re not to be trusted, after all, you hang out with the rest of the 53 shut-ins … that makes you at most an expert in left handed mice… at most!

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Well, it works. I was just offered a cuddle on the couch for being so calm and thinking ahead about her and her dad. Had to knock it back though because the one game of free to air rugby per week is about to start.

          Priorities.

          Edit: the stands look really, really empty. Everyone on the far side is sitting five seats apart.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Thank God both Jacks are still with us, as long as his food supply chain is constant then he’s happy despite all his lumps and bumps.
        Whoa while I’ve been here the Carpark suddenly filled up to max and cars driving frantically look
        ing for a non existing spot.
        They are all men wtf ,TP, men only shoppers what next

  17. Dr Redfield, head of the CDC, made his name in the 80s by seeking to combat HIV by quarantining all gay men and demanding from them a list of their sexual partners. He was opposed to developing an HIV anti-viral and blamed AIDS on, of course, gays, single parents, and the breakdown of the traditional family.

    He now runs the CDC.

    You gotta love it when belief and ideology come into play with Science and how it effects everyone else …

    Reports I’m getting from the States is everyone with a holiday home – away from population centers – is punching out. Same goes for reports from Europe where in Spain and Italy this move actually spread the contagion to these smaller population regions.

    And here I thought money made you smarter [tm], wellie I guess the results of migs Texas smart pills will be interesting at least.

  18. Boris Johnson is a psycho. In the face of all the evidence, the UK is pursuing a policy of increasing’herd’ immunity. they WANT people to get sick and are taking no precautions, no shutdowns, border totally open.

    The UK faces a total disaster at the hands of this psycho,

    • if contagiousness is as high as some information suggest and mortality as low as that would imply (see my post below) – that may not be a bad strategy
      basically reverse quarantine strategy: keep older and sick isolated while healthy population gets immunity (even temporary immunity will do it)

      It’s a big bet but may pay out very well

      • You need to look up where hes getting his information from and the baggage that bloke is carrying around – hint its not based on health, its based on orthodox economics.

      • I have suggested the same — the virus is out and about and actual number of people infected is orders of magnitude larger than the official number. Flip it on its head – quarantine the vulnerable. The only caveat is if the virus actually causes lasting damage to organs in all those who get infected – but I don’t believe that’s the case.

        • I literally just had this conversation. It would be difficult to do, but giving masks and sanitiser to the elderly and have them quarantined may be the option in future when the economy realises if contingency plans were oriented this way there’d be less impact overall.

        • If we had more testing, then people who had tested positive and recovered could be asked to volunteer to help keep aged care facilities running.

          • Definitely. Now’s the time for calm heads and rational thinking but what we have is a serious knee-jerk reactions which are typically about fighting the last war. The Govt need to get ahead of this but I fear they’re more concerned with the economic numbers and avoiding a recession.

        • what is interesting here is something else:
          when initially confronted with the virus Chinese official didn’t have other option but to do full blown quarantine (they had no idea about morbidity, critical groups, effects on health, …). Basically they were blind in the sense that they didn’t know what they are dealing with. In that sense they did a great job – imagine panic in the west if we don’t have information that is fairly benign for young, that morbidity is not that high, …

          Other countries now have much more information but the response looks almost identical

          One of the key reasons is trust in information provided by china. In the world of information we have to almost ignore information due to trust issues.

        • Except the vulnerable include the baby boomers who really don’t deserve any more charity from the younger generations.

          • No charity needed. They just hunker down with friends and family as support. The more they’re exposed to it all the greater the burden on the health system and that’s what we’re trying to avoid here.

      • Do we even know yet if it gives immunity after having had it? Weren’t there people saying that it may not a while ago?

        • A recent paper from china showed 65% had specific antibodies, and they were counting people who hadn’t even got over it yet. The relapses seem to be caused by the antivirals wearing off. Thats good news because it means the antivirals were working.

    • This is what I was referring to the other day when talking about the old eugenics debates between left and right camps.

      Welcome to animal farm …

  19. if Wuhan doesn’t get next wave as they reduce controls it will be clear that majority of residents have been already infected – that will mean that contagiousness is much higher than thought (as high as common cold) but mortality much lower (less than flu)

  20. If you love Trump’s MMT for the Mar-a-Largo set, aka socialism for the wealthy, you’re going to love what the Fed is doing to bail out Hedge funds that gorged on low quality corporate credit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvatzH7atsQ

    And they would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for that meddling virus. Once we get through this, it’s going to blow up again. The system is going to need QE infinity or clear the decks with a debt jubilee.

    • This has been going on for a long time, only thing is distribution, now that this virus that can’t be dictated too or threatened has necessitated clear and open actions – contra to what the mopes are spoon fed – some past believers are having troubling thoughts.

      Losing ones religion … think there are a few songs about it … hell of a thing …

  21. How can China have gone from 1,000’s of cases a day to a couple (aside from dodgy stats)? Is it because of the quarantine measures? To that end, won’t it kick off again when people get mobile and back to work?

    • what if large majority of people in Wuhan already got it and developed immunity?

      what if 90 or 95% of people show no symptoms?
      all stats that we have are based on testing people with symptoms

      I’m surprised none run a trial testing on random sample (e.g. 1000 random people) to see what are the actual numbers

      I would run a trial tests among school kids population – 500 tests is not a big deal. My guess is that more than half of kids are already positive in places like Italy. We may already have 10% of population infected

      • Makes perfect sense in less than sensible times! Given the evidence of their lying and manuipulation of data to date the CCP probably lied/were wrong about Wuhan being the epicenter in December. This thing may have been around for longer than we think. Given that xhinese mostly smoke, live in flats, are subject to poor food hygiene, breathe pollution and have a work ethic that discourages presentation for anything less than near death, there’s no guarantee that millions have had it without knowing, thousands may have died of what is assumed to be pneumonia without being tested.

        • The one good thing that may come of this is a universal distrust of anything Chinese.

      • They did that in one of the chinese cities that had 1% mortality rate. Found hardly any asymptomatic cases from community sampling. The cruse ship on the other hand had 50% asymptomatic, but they were probably being treated with antivirals as soon as the tested positive.
        Compare that to seasonal flu. 80% asymptomatic due to pre existing immunity, and probably on 25% of the remainder sick enough to to get tested. Actual flu mortality is 0.01% based on serological surveys. However seasonal factors may be significant in either reducing infection or disease burden. Just consider the importance of Vitamin D in immunity and development of ARDS https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25903964 probably explains why Thailand/Bali haven’t been completely overrun yet.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Forcing everyone to stay at home and shoot them if they step outside reduces transmission immensely.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        With you on this one Mig. I suspect the Chinese are trying to get the econcomy going again, but they are likely to see new outbreaks if they lighten up on the social distancing. Guess we have to wait and see, but it seems a good chance it will blow up again.

    • If you think about it, with their surveillance systems, the Chinese could be doing contract tracing on steroids. If someone gets sick, use their mobile phone records to find every bus that they caught in the last 48 hours, everyone else who was on that bus, every store they visited, etc.

      • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

        Psychologically, if you have 10 kids, your hopes of some surviving to adulthood is much higher than if you only have 2 or 3.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Poor counties have as many kids as possible because more chance of one becoming rich and supporting them when they get old without a pension scheme. This mindset has been well documented for ages.

          • Kelly Chen …

            Migs lot is still waiting for the birth cohort that accepts the code [tm] unquestionable …. then the Mothership lands …

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            I had this realisation a while back, that the people I respected and admired the most (and who seemed the best hope for the future) also had the least (or no) children. The bogans on the other hand were pumping them out like feral rabbits. :-/

      • What a silly question.
        In western society (except for the ultra rich) procreation is for the most part inversely proportional to income
        If you’re like me poor and dumb as the dirt I tread, then you’ve got no reason to fear having a big family.
        I can’t get poorer than I already am but if I have plenty of kids then one of them might somehow succeed and hopefully remember me when he/she has cash to splash about.
        That’s my plan.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          You serious?

          Australia does not have poverty.

          That’s going to radically change, and the number of kids you have will exacerbate that.

          Like the US, if you’re born poor in future Australia, there’s next to zero chance of changing that.

          That’s what we’re voting for, LNP, Labor or Greens.

          • Serious like a heart attack!
            and so far the plan is working out well, my kids hate being poor and are doing everything they can to avoid following in my foot steps.
            What more can a poor parent ask for?
            As far as I’m concerned real wealth is a function of the capabilities that my kids develop, their wealth is not about me, it’s not about the properties that I own and lease out, it’s not about my shares or super or bank accounts. Wealth is about fully developing the capabilities that my kids have.
            Wealth is about supporting them emotionally and giving them the foundations to succeed
            Wealth is about understanding what special gifts each child brings with them into this world, wealth is about identifying that special thing and being there to help them develop that one thing that makes them unique and valuable.
            I could go on and on but I think you get the picture.

            Now I readily admit that I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer but even I can see that the path to wealth that most Aussies are pursuing might individually enrich but collectively it is a path leading directly to the poor house.
            Sometimes poverty gives one the perspective that wealth robs one of.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            Forget the relatively minor detail of housing, Australia’s population growth will lead to unimaginable poverty in this country excepting extreme highs of ability, no amount of great parenting, talent, or skill will overcome.

          • I’m not forgetting housing
            Our housing shortages are 100% a function of the financialization of housing.
            Just to be clear, there is no physical reason why Australia should have a shortage of housing (lack of materials, lack of space, lack of building skills, an so on), however a housing shortage is 100% necessary if the value of housing as a Financial asset is to be maintained, hence the shortage of housing.

          • There is no shortage of housing. It’s just that some people are hoarding IPs like TP. Current house prices are like TP at $10/roll. Rather than limit how many people can buy, the LNP is essentially giving people tax subsidies to load up on TP and flip them to people who are desperate enough to pay $10/roll.

          • Now that’s the spirit Kelly
            Not sure if there was a little sarcasm hidden in your comment but I don’t do sarcasm.
            Australia’s only real shortage when it comes to housing is a shortage of Political will (and there is a lot of money ensuring that it stays that way)

  22. So who is keeping their kids home from school tomorrow or avoiding sharing the over crowded air conditioned office?

    • macrofishMEMBER

      I have been avoiding the office since… November.
      Now I have a good excuse though

    • migtronixMEMBER

      We’ve all been “work-from-home”‘d for at least a week. Decision came down from HQ in SanFran on Friday, global apparently.

      Might go on a trip, reckon its definitely going to last more than 1 week.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          I guarantee you I’ll come across fewer people just about anywhere other than Carlton.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Come up to Sydney Mig and we can go and have a Chinese feed in Eastwood then have a beer at the Bizzos.

        • Lol. Someone pulled up next to me at the lights yesterday in a car with the Princess Cruises logo splashed all over it. I looked at them and thought: enjoy your last days of employment.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        A working fckn holiday with a laptop and wifi is a genius idea. Why restrict yourself to ‘home surrounds’ if the office is inaccessible for weeks. It’s not like they’ll be calling meetings at the pub next door. Unfortunately.

        I assume you’ll be getting out of the city ASAP and renting an SUV or a mid-size sedan. Something like this maybe:

        http://www.tiny.cc/0kcblz ?

    • I’m working from home next week.
      Catching the bus and open plan air conditioned offices are too risky now.

      Strongly suspect work from home will become mandatory at my work pretty soon.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        I work from home everyday except no one has been calling me to work so staying home may be more appropriate terminology.
        The factory is really a disguised man cave visited & sleepover once a week or fortnight.

  23. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Well, after all that, Morrison didn’t go to the sharks game last night. Typically behind the curve. I would say the most clueless clown imaginable, but he seems to have some heavy competition from other National leaders.

  24. I pulled all my money out of shares 1 month ago because I knew something wasn’t right when the media downplayed the virus and shares went UP! To me it looked like Malcolm, the Donald and their friends were liquidating. Now that the important people are out of the woods they let it go. I seriously think property will be next most people just don’t have the cash to buy it’s all debt. First it will crash then inflation after that will take it to the moon but not after the masses lose first and property corps buy most people out like they did in the US. Good time to be in cash but there is only a small window of opportunity. So far no one I know pulled out of the sharemarket when I did and I was laughed at for being so negative lol!

    • Have you noticed Malcolm, the Donald and their friends’ liquidating property yet? Maybe there’s a clue in that ( sadly!)

      • I wouldn’t go selling property to get rich and rebuy at the moment nor would I sit in a heap of cash either I’d rather a physical asset. The rich have diversity of assets and cash and they will buy up on the cheap.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Well done Charlie. Good timing. Yep, property will follow – it just has a much longer lead time due to the speed of execution and liquidity. This winter is going to be one for the history books. We have seen nothing like this for 100 years.

      To be honest, part of me feels (whilst this will by ugly, nasty and deadly) it hopefully will reset the system and clean out all the crap.

      We have been living in a guilded age for decades now (not that it was ever sustainable) – this might be the reset we all need.

      Dunno. If I was any good at future prediction I would have sold up the shares in Jan and put it all on BBOZ instead of being in the “lets see what survives the next 12 months” crew.

      • Somehow I think it will all blow over and become business as usual again. We learn nothing (collectively as a species) and most people want their comfortable lives where they don’t have to cut back on luxuries to reduce emissions or debt). We’re all fecked as a result of the dumb hubris.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Conflicted here! My sharemarket holding sure hopes it blows over and it’s everything to the moon again. But my humanist side hope we all realise we can indeed save the planet and live a good life with a few cutbacks and changes. Not hopeful. Sharemarket will likely win (as you predict Gavin).

  25. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Am I racialist at being surprised that Switzerland has a team in the wood chop competition? I mean, I know they had trees but never saw them at the wood chop. Do they have an Easter Show too?

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            In the 1600s the Netherlands were the worlds most prolific shipbuilders and had no trees to talk about hence the huge trade from the Nordic counties to the industrial revolutions first sawmills. The worlds modern industrial revolution started in the Zaan district.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Was hard to beat until had to change from neck of woods to neck of flesh because they are a more prolific replenishment

  26. Anybody see Insiders this morning? Our chief medical officer, Professor Murphy, needs to be fired ASAP. He couldn’t give clear direction on anything, no doubt under instruction from his political masters (& in turn their economic masters) not to spook the people and impact the economy. On top of that, the lesser known van Onsolen (Peter) outed him afterwards as a handshaker in the green room!

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      He comes accross as a man conflicted and lying (or hopelessly out of his depth) – Why ScoMo doesn’t fire him and get someone competent boggles the mind – although is not surprising given the low quality bar on our current crop of leaders. Hopefully this virus will flush out all these scammers and fake leaders who bluff their way thru with smoke and mirrors. Suddenly evidence and science will matter again and no amount of sh!tfckery and lies will change the end result.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I though Leiths twin brother was going to start punching on with Phil Coorey at one stage.

    • You’re right. The Chief Medical Officer Murphy is a walking sham. There’s a good reason he’s spent most of his career sitting on boards and committees rather than actually practicing medicine. Utterly incompetent.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Off memory, before the virus took off, Murphy was to move from being the CMO to be the secretary of the Dept of Health.

    • no idea how Coorey keeps robbing a living. gotta be a the least incisive journalist going around. the moment where he read his phone and then said “Freidenburg followed the flowchart to the letter” was pretty sad.

      PvO distancing himself in this photo is gold.

      https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1238947150043594753?s=20

      The others could only mock him for acting outside the boys-club-handshake-maaaate horsh1t.

    • Yes I too saw that.It was clear from Mr Murphy’s eyes that he was lying through his teeth!

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Holy moly – anyone who has had even a margin interest in this virus has known that for months. What the hell is going on with these people? Another classic blame handball of “It’s not our fault! Nobody could have seen this coming.”

      • Can you please tell me how to get my scientifically trained boomer father to understand this??? I have told him there is a lot of evidence from China it is spread by aerosols, and that the asymptomatic period of transmission only 24 hours before symptoms is BS but he still has too much faith our governance systems (although he does believe the gov is incompetent). The CMO said they reviewed to overseas science and that is that. I responded that I know it is difficult to get enough scientific validation of aerosol spread in the early sh1tshow stages of a novel pandemic, but FMD it should be obvious from the sheer numbers of confirmed cases globally and the speed of case increase, which are the tip of the iceberg of the actual case numbers that this thing has to be aerosol spread, not droplets and the close contact of within 1m for 15 mins and inside a room for 2 hours. Seriously any help getting him to understand this would be appreciated

    • Yeah it’s pretty clear that some people can only think one layer deep. Apt comment from someone earlier about MAFs and Q&A.

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      Correct. Australians outside of MB are either bought off, conflicted in some other way or they’re stupid.

      It’s probably for the best that Australians are replaced.

  27. Here’s a thought
    If all of our beloved sporting codes shut down for the Virus season then why would anyone continue to pay for Foxtel cable?
    Netflix is better for movies and general content add some Disney specific contents for the kids and cut the cord.
    If you try this for 6 months or longer, and it is working for you, then why would anyone reconnect with Foxtel.

    • Literally cancelled mine yesterday. I have it for golf, US sports and CNBC. They have no idea how to retain customers. Asked if they would put my account on hiatus until sport comes back. They told me no and if I cancel now, I’ll need to pay to reconnect. Told her fine, good bye, won’t be back.

      There must be a lot thinking like me. Had to leave my details for a callback. Took 50 minutes. Should be the last nail for them. If they go, NRL and AFL go too. I’ll be livid if those codes get bailed out. Time these overpaid, moronic athletes go back to working during the week and playing on weekends.

    • Yep. It’s madness that they won’t give a discount t for say three months. Inertia is their friend.

      Samr thing for ESPN. It has no content and a lot of highly paid talking heads. At least they are owned by Disney who will probably get Disney Plus subscriptions through the roof as people sit at home with nothing to do.

  28. Reverse Transcriptase

    Here’s a bit of non COVID news comrades!

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-14/skin-lightening-capsules-said-to-be-made-in-australia/11998954https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-14/skin-lightening-capsules-said-to-be-made-in-australia/11998954

    It’s exporting a white Australia policy [that] pushes a racist idea that beauty is equated with white skin, fuels intolerance of dark skinned people, causes social harm and wastes consumers’ money,”

    Racialism!!!!

    • Oh FFS. Completely agree with your sentiment!

      People in Asian countries ARE raycyst which is why they buy skin lightening products, they think that lighter skin is more beautiful, they’ve done it since forever.

      Cosmetics companies think we are all idiots – they sell tanning products to white people and whitening products to brown people!

      They think we are idiots and they are absolutely right.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Yet all the sheilas I grew up with spent all their free time trying to get a tan

    • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

      When I lived in Hong Kong there were advertisements for skin lightening products everywhere. They must have been a lucrative seller.

    • I wish I could call in an artillery strike on the ABC. Fire mission Division, at least.

      Particularly the studio where they make The Drum.

  29. Bright eyed Bushy Tailed W0ke

    The curry eaters jump on that it’s gold mine cast system will be destroyed we will all be ivory 400,000 darkie a year your on a winner

  30. Reverse Transcriptase

    Practical question time: I have not hoarded much and was hoping that the delivery or click/collect system would hold out since it is definitely in the interests of the big chains to keep it pumping. I have not used it for years – last time was prepping a series of big (multi week) bush trips.

    Other than the slots filling up quick at the moment (and the website blocks more than one TP order) has anyone had any problems yet, e.g. you put in your order and they can’t fill it all?

    I would prefer never to set foot in my local Coles or Woolies again as the mood went positively hostile even 10 days ago due to the failed social experiment in this area involving stuffing the place with New Australians and expecting their dog eat dog culture to somehow suppress itself come what may. No prizes for guessing how that’s working out right now ….

    • Stick to things that are substitutable (i.e. there’s more than one thing on the shelf with similar characteristics, weight etc.), and set your order to accept substitutes to maximise your chances of full fulfilment.

      I’ve found myself mainly having trouble with less fungible things e.g. taco kits, weird flavours of chips. Your order fulfiller won’t spend much time pondering substitutes so if there isn’t an obvious one in front of them, they’ll just miss and go to the next thing.

      Be 0% surprised if Coles/Woolies accept an order with TP/dry pasta/whatever the farm animals are panic buying today and then fail to fulfil. You’ve gotta be there in person since, excepting a few dedicated fulfilment centres in the major metros, orders are fulfilled from normal supermarket shelves.

    • Just check delivery times.
      Ours is usually easy to book within 1-2 days.
      When I looked Friday ,it had blown out to over a week before first available delivery slot.
      Edit-now at 12 days before first slot available.

      • When this ramps up, I reckon they’ll shut down Coles and Woollies to foot traffic: online orders only. Good business opportunity doing non-contact home deliveries, especially if you have a refrigerated van.

        • PlanetraderMEMBER

          My kids have p-time jobs at Woolies – I am sure theyt said that the online is being suspended indefinitely.

    • Gloves mask goggles and head down early AM. I go before work and no issues

      I’m in regional NsW though so still quote civil

      (I prepped 2 months ago whilst some here said I was paranoid )

    • I second Swampy. I stocked up slowly from late Jan then did a major one just before TP became a thing. However if you can go driving out into the country to do your shopping, I probably would. I wore a mask, goggles and gloves to fill up the car with fuel today.

  31. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Have Labor self quarantined? Haven’t heard a single stupid word from them.

    How good is that!!!!

    For the sake of our country’s future, let’s hope they never reemerge.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        Anyone but a pro immigration, anti Australia, anti Australian, anti worker, anti environment, globalist, woke, neoliberal party like Labor currently are.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            3d1ks was pro LNP because he belonged to the resource sector.

            I am not pro LNP. I am anti Labor because I have kids and I love Australia. Any thinking Australian can see the deviousness of that disgraceful party, and knows they hurt the very voters they seek the most.

            There is zero correlation and zero comparison between 3d1ks and me.

            What are you talking about?

        • And who would that be with any great presence and bank rolling to follow suit? All good and well to tell Labor to suck sh1t and die muthafvcker but unless there’s a viable alternative, we’re stuck with these fvckwits.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            LNP or Labor government with independents and other parties being their puppet masters.

            Unless we remove the power from bought off LNP and Labor, our kids futures are doomed.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            You throw around the word troll the same way “racist” is used to shut down debate. Fact is you don’t have an argument to support Labor. They’re a disgrace.

            You’re dishonest and so is your party.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            The Traveling Wilbur

            If you could see my brown face you wouldn’t be saying that.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            “Sounds like he needs some skin whitener”

            Now I’m insulted. I’m going to vote Labor if you don’t stop.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            I get such a laugh with being called a troll, then when challenged, you can’t articulate the simplest of arguments.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            @Totes BeWoke. LOL. in a good way. and yes I would!

            Brown people get to be racist too you know!
            (but seriously, I’m actually just agreeing with your point about arguments being written off with stupid labels rather than just pointing out the stupidity of the argument itself (where applicable) – which you then spelled out in detail yourself, much like this).

            PS What makes you think I’m not from a brown household? Is it all the Buffy references?

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            The Traveling Wilbur

            Haha. I like your comment.

            I guess we begin to assume, but in my experience I know plenty of brown people who think like me.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        I can’t believe there’s still people who vote Labor. It’s a bizarre situation.

        As I’ve said, I can easily explain why Labor’s at fault and like ITAg, you don’t have a counter argument either.

        • This is why you’re being called a troll. You asked a question, I answered and yet you ignored the answer and keep up your schtick. Just so it’s easy for you to understand – you asked where labor was as you hadn’t heard anything from them, my response is that I’ve been hearing and seeing all the labor talking heads on ABC today giving sensible advice. You asked a simple question that got a simple answer. If you want to talk about more than that, pose your whole thesis in your post instead of laying bait and then moving the goal posts. Maybe you aren’t smart enough to even understand that what you are doing is textbook trolling.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            Two facts.

            1. I try to ignore ABC.

            2. Labor do not say anything sensible. Ever.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          Oh dear. I referred to you calling me a troll.

          My question was rhetoric. Anyone with 3 figures IQ knew that.

          You’re ridiculous mate.

    • How does revenge factor into it? If you’ve got millions of Americans without work, sick pay, dead relatives, retirement portfolios that have been decimated, long lasting health issues as a result of the virus – surely people want retribution?

      I know Tucker is a right wing shock jock, but he had an interesting segment this week about cutting off China completely. At a minimum the west needs to wake up and remove all reliance on China.
      Depending on the severity this has on people and economies, the blame China tries to throw on the US, I don’t think some kind of war is out of the question. One of the most efficient ways to get the economy rolling again as well. Lots of farm boys from Iowa who are handy with a rifle can easily be manipulated into defending the flag. Trump wouldn’t have anything to lose if he gets a second term.

      • Yes I think China needs to play this game very carefully. I expect war is a valid potential outcome

      • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

        If they want “retribution” then they should probably look at their own Politicians and the system that houses them.

        Like Australia they have had close to two months to put some systems in place to counteract the virus for the general populace but have done SFA.

        Used to be the stuff of revolutions.

    • WTF? Heard immunity is what vaccines are for.

      What these sociopaths are doing is opting for people to die instead of economic pain.

      • No, herd immunity is concept older than vaccination
        Herd immunity was most visible during the “Age of discoveries” when due to lack of herd immunity entire civilizations have been wiped out from this planet.
        The real question here is what would make the cost lower (cost in number of lives).
        – One option is to slowdown spread by limiting movements of all people and isolating those infected until vaccine gets developed to achieve herd immunity (this may take a year or longer and require few rounds of total lock-downs).
        – The other option is to isolate vulnerable until heard immunity is gained via infection of majority of people who are not so vulnerable. This will likely to take few months.
        pros and cons:
        both option may lead to more or less deaths depending how effective controls are. Also information we have about the virus is limited and unreliable so it may turn out at the end that one of the options is clearly better but without us knowing that at this time. It may also happen that immunity is only temporary which may affect effectiveness of both options.

        So both options are big gambles but the first one is more socially acceptable and people deciding on that one are less likely to face critics if it turns out to be the wrong option.

    • Great you get herd immunity at a minimum of 85% of the population having exposure. Some diseases need 97% exposure. Deaths r us

    • It’s a virus led recovery, Scorona will be crowing about how he fixed consumer confidence when the next quarterly retail figures show a huge spike because of turd ticket sales.

  32. Hosted ….

    So it turns out there is a loophole in the sick leave bill.

    Gee, are we surprised?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/opinion/coronavirus-pelosi-sick-leave.html

    Behind paywall but this claims
    https://twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/status/1238875588611510273

    The bill that the House passed last night only guarantees paid coronavirus sick leave to ~20 percent of American workers.

    Republicans insisted on an exemption for companies with more than 500 employees, and Democrats caved.

    McDonald’s, Amazon, and pretty much any other company that you’ve ever heard of — THEY ARE EXEMPTED.

    And that loophole includes 54 percent of all workers.

    I repeat: Most workers still aren’t guaranteed paid sick leave.

    Read the whole thread.

    Lmmao …

    • What Paywall? Sounds like an ideological construct to keep out the unwashed.
      Try reader view in your browser, reload the page. Or turn off javascript.

  33. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So now we’re spreading it other countries and they still think only people who have travelled or been around infected people should be tested. Winners!

    • Oh, they’re helping us through all these crises? Aren’t they so kind and altruistic!

      Yes, let’s further open the floodgates, particularly during an economic downturn.

  34. Have the calls to halt interest on mortgage payments started yet? Or the calls to halt mortgage payments all together. I guarantee the big loser won’t be joe debt and his mortgage. It will be joe prudence and his savings.

    • PPOR is understandable. Banks should fully pursue IPs. Force liquidation if they have to. Better for them to reduce exposure while there is still a market. FONGO is back baby!

    • Surely the same applies for renters if mortgage repayments are stopped? No? If not, with about 1/3 of all Aussies renting, there could be flaming torches…well one can only hope

    • Got an email from my bank today saying that if you lose income from CV they will look to help with mortgage holidays and even credit card interest rate discounts.

      Now I just need to catch it.

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        If you cant get tested how do you get your mortgage holiday? If you dont need to be tested, you dont need to catch it. Just start coughing.

  35. blindjusticeMEMBER

    Open plan office, people coughing left right and center, regular face to face meetings. Staff recently back from Italy before travel ban, staff with family over from Iran. Where does an employers obligation to provide a safe environment start and end here??

    • Now, if the virus mutates and becomes more deadly, like Ebola, after achieving its maximum geological spread….

      • But the whole virus worldwide does not mutate simultaneously. One bit, eg the bit you’ve got, might mutate and become a new strain. The rest of the world still has whatever strain they caught.

        The more lethal strains actually self select out and die off because they kill the host too fast. Natural selection favours the strain that is least lethal.

        The virus doesn’t particularly want to kill you, it just wants to spread more effectively. That works best when it is very infectious, when the symptoms of the sufferer (eg sneezing) hasten the spread, and where virtually no one dies. Then the virus basically survives forever. Hey presto – I give you – the flu, and the common cold.

        Chances are that’s where coronavirus will end up. But it might take a while.

        • Chris Martenson (Peak Prosperity, PHD pathology) has theorised that Italy and Iran have been hit with the more aggressive form of coronavirus.

          A team of Chinese researchers reported earlier this month that coronavirus has split into two distinct strains.

      • a virus cannot be very deadly and very contagious at the same time because it would kill itself via host elimination

        • Reverse Transcriptase

          It can a bit more bang even if choosing to be deadly if inducing haemorrhage in the terminal phase which would also make the corpse dangerous to dispose of even though no longer breathing q.v. the Ebola River virus.

        • It can if it’s new, but eventually will go extinct if it kills all it’s hosts. Plenty of diseases throughout history have killed very large percentages of the population before selecting for those who are immune.
          See first contact with europeans for indigenous populations throughout the world, smallpox + others absolutely decimated the populations until only those with immunity remained. Or black death in eurode, huge numbers killed until only those with natural tolerance remained.

        • Smallpox is the best. RO of 6, 30% mortality. 500 million deaths in the 20th century.
          People used to put small pox scabs on their kids so that the low dose would only result in a 5% mortality rate. They would be fully infections while they were sick.

  36. Insider gossip from the pathology industry: an Australian infected by Covid-19 about three months ago is now returning negative nasopharyngeal swabs, but is still shedding virus detectable by rectal swab. It may be that the faecal-oral route isn’t just a secondary mode of transmission, but actually the main problem. No wonder it spread so quickly in China, where hand hygiene is a dicey affair, especially among the less educated (and mon Dieu, have you seen what passes for public toilets in that country?).
    I can think of at least two implications for public health in Australia; firstly, that the official advice is inadequate to the extent it focuses on the risk of respiratory transmission. Secondly, the testing program for the general public is primarily geared to collection with nasopharyngeal swabs, so we may be getting spurious “negative” results.

    • Reverse Transcriptase

      It’s a good thing then that we are importing our newest Australians from cultures where meticulous toileting hygiene is given high importance.

    • So the Rectal Swab is an actual thing? You learn something new every day.

      “Please leave the clinic and return to your vehicle, then shove your ar$e out the window. The Rectal Swab Operator will be with you shortly.

    • I completely trust those people to self isolate. I mean, if they don’t, they lose nothing and the rest of us get infected. So it’s a foolproof strategy!

      • Sort of like that Nepalese chap in Hobart who tested positive but went to work anyway…

  37. happy valleyMEMBER

    Any word yet on whether Scotty made it to that Hillsong gig this weekend that he was supposedly attending?

  38. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So I broke isolation to pick up stuff. Went into a golf shop at a driving range that also has putt-putt golf. First surprise was a kid’s birthday party. Massive, little sods running everywhere. Meh, it’s what kids do. More people arriving with cakes and gifts. Oh, be careful I’m thinking. Then the parents all started greeting each other with hugs, kisses and handshakes. Think I actually recoiled.

    At a glance they were mostly young professional types, very well dressed for a kid’s party. Is this where it spreads like wildfire, with the look-at-me-nothing-can-stop-me crowd?

  39. The Traveling Wilbur

    So. Shopping is done. Arms a bit longer than they were. But done.

    On a completely unrelated note, does anyone know any recipes for Spam that make it, you know, well, edible?
    Asking for a friend.

    Off to stock up on cheap scotch. 2L should do. Provided it’s on sale.
    People at the supermarket were OK, but shelves were definitely being picked today more than ever before.
    4001.

  40. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Hey, they’re disinfecting balls at the footy before giving them to the players to use!

    Are they disinfecting players before they run into each other at high velocity? And the refs, surely they deserve a spray.

  41. DingwallMEMBER

    France is shutting cafes and restaurants, Berlin and the UK look like they are at least shutting down pubs and bars………….

  42. https://www.afr.com/world/asia/australians-trapped-in-wuhan-say-they-now-feel-safer-in-china-20200313-p549xg

    “Before the global growth in the epidemic, my friends in Australia were very worried about me because I was at the centre of the outbreak,” Melbourne photographer Moko Yong said by telephone from Wuhan, where he has been living in a hotel for almost two months.

    “Now, I am worrying about my friends in Australia.

    “We feel quite safe in Wuhan at the moment. People going back to Australia are in a more dangerous situation than us.”

    “I’m worried that Australia will be a second Italy. Wuhan is the safest place in the world; it will have zero infections soon,” he wrote.

    “I’m not optimistic with the public health situation in Australia and the government’s efficiency. It would take Australia five months to achieve what the Chinese government has done in two months,” Mr Yong said.

    Ruh roh, this may throw a spanner in the works for all the property pumpers saying there will be a mass exodus of cashed up Chinese wanting to gobble up more aussie real estate.

    My mate who usually works in China is now getting messages from Chinese friends asking if he needs supplies sent and if he just wants to come stay in China for a while. Lol, Aussie Governments reputation is well known across the globe.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Well, we always knew that at some stage we would become international pariahs. And what better man to lead us there than Scummo?

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Check the post regarding rectal swabs still showing virus while main swabs showing nothing. If the Chinese go back to work en masse, look out.

      • Yeah, I honestly expect a second wave to go through China. With how infectious it is, I just can’t see them being able to contain it even with draconian rules.

    • Would those Chinese with Australian PR now declare themselves to be Chinese, so they can be evacuated back when China sends their rescue planes across.

      • They don’t give up their Chinese citizenship, just like all the Malaysian and Singaporean or Indians. Technically illegal, but they take the chance. Always have both sides of bread buttered!

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Ha! That had been there for a while. Put it down to the power of MacroBusiness.

          • He had ago at PVO complaining about the CMO guy shaking hands this morning on Insiders. Said something like “us pollies like to meet people and be polite by shaking hands – but then we wash them afterwards. So we’ll be OK”.

            Maybe someone off line has pointed out how self-absorbed that statement was…

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            He pretty much called Leith’s cousin a ponce for not shaking hands. Said to carry hand sanitiser with you everywhere, do the firm handshake while looking in the eye then disinfect your hand.

            That’s why I said not sure if serious.

          • Certainly can’t argue with the concept of disinfecting your hand after meeting a pollie.

          • I’d count the digits on my hand to make sure I’ve still got four fingers and a thumb.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Whereas we’ve got smocorona trying to do the absolute minimum with it looking that way.

      Edit: without it looking like they are doing fck all I mean

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’m just annoyed because profits are going to be fukt because we have done none of this.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        “I believe that there is in Australia today an intense love of country, greater in its expression than has yet been called forth at any previous period in Australia’s history.”

        (John Curtin, March 1942)

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Maybe Australia died with Curtin? No, hang on, we had Chifley after that. That’s when it went. After him Where’s pfh007? He will know.

        • Another quote:

          “Our immigration policy is increasingly based on an appeal to international precepts that our neighbours sensibly refuse to practise. We are surrendering much of our own independence to a phantom opinion that floats vaguely in the air and rarely exists on this earth. We should think very carefully about the perils of converting Australia into a giant multicultural laboratory for the assumed benefit of the peoples of the world.” – Geoffrey Blainey, 1984.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        I’m surprised the Muslim.. men are shopping and not just standing around intimidating people while their slaves shop, that’s how it goes at Casula mall

        • Sometimes the Masters understand there are special occasions when the slaves aren’t appropriate for the job and it is something only a Master can do. Now is obviously one of those times.

    • Reverse Transcriptase

      I know ’tis gosh to quote onself, but as I posted earlier:

      … the failed social experiment in this area involving stuffing the place with New Australians and expecting their dog eat dog culture to somehow suppress itself come what may. No prizes for guessing how that’s working out right now …

    • “The student was not contagious while they were on campus, NSW Health has advised.”

      So it’s utter lies from the health department now?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Nabtrade getting ready for a big day too…

      “Dear Bogan,

      As you are aware there was significant trading activity last week on the Australian stock market and across the globe. We anticipate this increase in volume to continue next week.

      The market volatility caused an unprecedented spike in volume of concurrent nabtrade logins at market open and throughout the day. This unfortunately resulted in some ongoing interruptions to our online service.

      For this we would like to sincerely apologise.

      We are working with our vendors to increase capacity and performance. However, to reduce the likelihood of further interruptions next week we advise the following preparations:
      Log in to nabtrade well in advance of market open at 10:00am – we suggest throughout the morning before 9:30am
      Stay connected – avoid the need to log back in particularly around market open
      To help improve performance, we will actively manage simultaneous logins to the site. If you receive an error message when attempting to log in, please try again in a few minutes if you are unsuccessful.”

      • The day the funds start locking down isn’t far away, just like the GFC. Sorry, you can’t withdraw right now, we’ll let you know when it’s safe. Que boomer outrage (quite rightly)

      • Warning from Interactive brokers.

        In response to extreme market volatility and substantially increased risk sentiment in global markets, we are taking the following steps with immediate effect:

        Intraday margin discounts remain suspended until further notice.
        Liquidation deferrals: the buffer for activation of liquidations is currently 5%, but may be reduced further as market conditions warrant [Background: under normal market conditions IBKR usually delays liquidations for a period of time during the active trading session when an account is only slightly (less than 10%) under its financial requirements to allow clients to individually manage their risk reduction activities].
        We will be deploying re-assessments of margin requirements more frequently and in some cases, on an intraday basis. Clients with positions having exposure to large moves in most asset classes (equity, energies, capital markets, forex, bonds) may expect higher capital requirements on short notice and should consider managing their risk and capital positions in their accounts to anticipate such changes.

        Commsec pulling margin lending on some petroleum companies. Also pulling back leverage on the banks themselves.

        https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/PDFs/Product/Margin-Lending/Accepted_Shares.pdf

        Leverage is unwinding in a disorderly manner.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          I reckon AUD has looked ‘disorderly’ of late, and reckon it may get more so…

      • Great solution nabtrade. Get everyone to log on before the rush, that’ll fix … oh wait.

    • My kids have a school camp later this week. Idiotic school still hasn’t cancelled it.

      • One class or even year at camp would be safer than the general school yard. (but yes, just shut the fvcking schools before it goes exponential if it isn’t already)

        • Timmeh – at a press conference this arvo scovid said when asked why was he keeping the schools open something about herd immunity. My take of his comment was that he is happy for lots of school kids to get the virus as a way for us to develop herd immunity. Two minutes later the deputy medical offical explicitly said there is no herd immunity and every one of us can catch the virus.

          I think scovid is listening to Boris rather than his own experts.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Yep, after listening to Scummo, Hunt, the CMO and the DMO today but especially this guy…

            https://mobile.twitter.com/ConallMcD/status/1238865202868883461

            …we realised we were on our own. The government is happy to let us die to avoid a recession. We’ve pulled the pin from society purely because of the rabid incompetence of our ‘leaders’.

            If we’re right we’re ahead of the game with a fighting chance and if we’re wrong we’ve lost nothing more than a couple of week’s school. It’s a no-brainer.

  43. Canberra CoVid update:

    – Mrs Nut went to IKEA just before lunch today. Empty. Dead, said it was great. Usually quite busy on a Sunday. Is discretionary spending contracting even further as people save and wait for isolation or to buy an extra 87 big rolls? End of the day, ScoVid’s payments to pensioners and NewStart recipients are unlikely to make their way to IKEA who happen to employ a lot of casuals.

    – That said, eldest works at a Gungahlin club and said it’s been really busy the last few nights. Just got back from the local and was busy, lots of food and booze flowing. Families, friends catching up and a couple of oldies in the mix. The Nuts discussed this and concluded there are people giving a big fat fvck you to CoVid and will go down swinging.

    – Food restrictions are expanding; Coles Amaroo have now restricted mince to one pack per person. Others likely to follow.

    – Got our weekly wine stock from First Choice. In the old days, staff would give you good tips on wine etc. Today old mate gave us a tip that Coles have just restocked the bog rolls.

    – Eldest was talking to the security guard last night. Said guard has a family member in Italy and was talking to them last night. Guard said you heard the Dr’s in Italy aren’t treating serious cases for those over 80? Son said yep. It’s now 65. WTF! Said family member has to send the authorities their weekly roster and is issued a travel pass to and from work. If you’re found outside without a reason, it’s three months in jail and a massive fine. That’ll put ideas into Dutton head.

    – Can confirm the rumours of people being turned away from CoVid testing clinics. The Weston clinic has been inundated well beyond the capacity to test people (but we’ve got light rail). Essentially, if you haven’t been in contact with a known carrier (there’s only been one confirmed case in the ACT) and/or travelled to a high risk area you’re sent home. Supports the theory there are potentially thousands more unreported cases out there because there is insufficient testing.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6678611/security-called-in-for-act-as-coronavirus-sparks-nurse-safety-fears/?cs=14225

    • ” Essentially, if you haven’t been in contact with a known carrier (there’s only been one confirmed case in the ACT) and/or travelled to a high risk area you’re sent home. Supports the theory there are potentially thousands more unreported cases out there because there is insufficient testing.”

      I really don’t understand this. What are you supposed to do if you obviously have it and quite badly but haven’t knowingly been in contact with anyone that has it? Still go around infecting everyone?

      • Pretty much. Proof that health resources are woefully inadequate to cope with this sort of situation. Staff on the ground are doing a bang up job but are being let down by governments. To boot, people are being turned away who could potentially be infected but never accounted for skewing the number of positive cases.

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        NZ has gone one better. You’re supposed to call the Healthline to get permission to be tested (which in most cases will be denied) but their backup plan to not testing anyone is to simply keep you on hold for 3 hours and then disconnect you so you cant even ask. Genius!

  44. matthew hoodMEMBER

    Spoke to a local copper today (NE Vic) they have been told to back off all petty crime,only pull over people who are speeding/driving dangerously etc. The reason given is that if 1 officer test positively they will have to all self quarantine. I asked who would take over policing in the town, he said the coppers from the nearest regional city. I then asked him what happens if they get it? He smiled and said they hadn’t got that far yet.

    • I’ve been wondering what the cops would be thinking about doing breatho’s. Do they really want a full load of my lung juice down their arm holding that little box? What about if I lick all over the whole drug test thingo?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I have totally come to the conclusion that when it comes to the good of everybody, and the better people’s profits, that Chinamen system is not just superior but it’s way superior. Good people who play along get super rewarded and the scum, and let’s face it we have a lot of it west of ANZAC parade in Sydney, get crushed nicely.

  45. If looting happens will any of you participate? What would you go for? Only altruistic looting like medicine and food?

    Genuine question. These are the things I ponder at a time like this and wonder what I’ll do, I’m still undecided.

    • Pretty sure I got it in Jan. I had a really bad sore throat and couldn’t talk for a few days, worst sore throat I’ve had since tonsilitis as a kid and lasted for over a week, usually I get over a cold in a few days tops. It was different to anything I’ve ever had too, no blocked or runny nose at all but very slight fever, it was all in my throat and upper lungs. After 2 weeks all was good however the friend I caught it off is still coughing for 2 whole months now and can’t get completely over it but he is overweight with type2 diabetes.
      I’d be interested to see what symptoms others have. I hear so many people out and about with exactly the same cough I had but some seem worse and sound like they have escalated to the bronchitis/pneumonia stage.

    • Hoping you are feeling a bit better, and as HST famously said “when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro” … I do just hope it’s a case of the weirds.. Salut.

  46. From domain: “Sports carnivals, school excursions and assemblies will not go ahead to provide “peace of mind” for students, parents and teachers”

    why the fvck does every response have to be worded like it’s only required to deal with irrational punters rather than to actually deal with a problem.

    same with Scomo and the bushfires – he was only coming back from Hawaii coz we were anxious.

    I might try this gaslighting at work tomorrow…

  47. If the anal swabs after being supposedly “cured” are true. what kind of hell on earth is Ermo going to unleash on Sydney with his 5000 cans of baked beans? Will we be able to see it from satellites like the crematoriums in Wuhan?

  48. Officials in western Japan’s Mie Prefecture say a man who was a passenger on a cruise ship that was hit by the coronavirus has again tested positive after recovering from infection.

    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/

    Comments by LabDrudge regarding fecal sampling might be relevant here. Might take much longer to get over this than first though. Doubt that is priced in.

    • There goes the “herd immunity” bullsh!t idea of letting us all catch it and everything will be fine…..

      • These PCR tests can stay positive for weeks after an infection.

        Most people don’t stay positive for weeks, but in the study below 8% were still positive by week 3.

        Among thousands of tests done, there will be hundreds of these delayed positives. Doesn’t seem to mean much – in the study below, patients with milder infections stayed positive for longer.

        A delayed positive probably just means longer in quarantine

        https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/2/suppl_1/516/2634871

    • Is Australia still a society though? Or just an economic zone?

      Do the vast array of different people living here now have any sense of fellow feeling and obligation to each other? I suppose we’re about to find out.

      I would argue that a shared pursuit of consumerism is not really much of a social glue in a crisis.

  49. Oooh, barrow goes into lockdown after a suspected case. As if it wasn’t like a fvcking prison already.

  50. TailorTrashMEMBER

    What’s the bet Straya has to impose martial law before this is out to guard the toilet paper……and the very fabric of their very disjointed and uncoordinated society ..
    …hope we don’t have a skills shortage in the army ……..( and need to seek help from China ) ……….getitintaya straya !……….

    • What you think I have thing for Xi. Pointing out bad policies vs better ones is not the same as supporting everything E.g. logic dictates that not being pro A necessitate being pro B.

      Again in contrast … what happened during the 14 city crack down of Occupy, including deaths and a whole cornucopia of other maleficence.

      Its absurd for people to say its OK if one does something – the other does too, its always about context. That does not mean I support transforming Australia to either the US or China model, but then we have our own dramas over some years now.