South China Sea time bomb threatens to go off

Via News:

Asia has just taken a giant leap towards disaster: The combat jets of four nations have squared off above a disputed island. Vietnam is challenging an aggressive Chinese spy ship. And the Philippines has appealed to the US for protection.

Overnight, a chaotic confrontation unfolded above a tiny island claimed by both South Korea and Japan. Chinese and Russian bombers infringed the territory, with Tokyo and Seoul fighting over the right to defend the airspace. South Korea says it fired more than 300 warning shots at the Russian bombers.

Meanwhile, Hanoi has accused Beijing of violating its sovereignty by sending a survey ship to Vanguard Bank, which sits within Vietnam’s UN-recognised 370km (200 mile) exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Beijing arbitrarily claims the South China Sea — in its entirety — as its own.

…It came shortly after a demand by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte for the protection of the US Navy after a deadly collision in the disputed Spratly Islands.

“I’m calling now America. I am invoking the RP-US pact, and I would like America to gather their Seventh Fleet in front of China. I’m asking them now,” he said during an interview.

US State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus has called on Beijing to “cease its bullying behaviour and refrain from engaging in this type of provocative and destabilising activities”.

…Beijing has ignored US calls for a “hotline” to de-escalate tensions in the region.

…Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirmed earlier this year that “any armed attack on Philippines forces, aircraft or public vessels in the South China Sea” would trigger the treaty with the Philippines.

But Beijing has been making clever use of “grey zone” tactics to avoid a formal confrontation.

Such tactics are designed to generate sufficient uncertainty and “plausible deniability” under international law and rules of engagement to cause opponents to hesitate.

For that reason, Beijing is using its government-controlled fishing fleet and nominally civilian coastguard to aggressively lay claim to territory — and not its officially designated military warships.

We also have China setting out its new uber-aggressive White Paper outlining how everyone else to blame and the US responding with the traditional naval bird, via Bloomie:

An American warship’s sail past Taiwan was the sixth such voyage this year — the most since President Donald Trump took office — as the U.S. ramps up military support for the democratically run island.

The guided-missile cruiser USS Antietam completed a transit through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, Seventh Fleet spokesman Clay Doss said, adding that it “demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. China, which views such passages as provocative because they reaffirm American support for Taipei, urged Washington to “avoid undermining China-U.S. relations and the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

Just another day in Cold War 2.0.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. wrt the South China Sea: It’s clear to me that China is doing what China needs to do, The big unknown is what’s the US doing in the region and why?
    Following post WW2 military/strategic logic the US created an effective cordon around China, Japan and the USSR. (one old and two emerging adversaries) This gave the US control of the all Eastern regions of the North Pacific ocean, there’s no doubt that the US profited handsomely from what was effectively a blockade…times change, situations change and all real world politk needs to acknowledge this change.It seems to me that this is what is happening in the region, so all is well with the world , the time to really worry is when necessary change is deliberately prevented from occurring.

    • Please remind me, is fisho a CCP hack or just a moron?Chinese growing power in the region spells big trouble for every other nation.

      • I’m probably just a moron mate! However, if that’s indeed true and we accept that Intelligence is a relative measure than I suspect that a very large percentage of the Aussie population should be considered complete Morons…but come to think of it that is my lived experience, so it’s entirely possible that you’re correct.
        I guess only time will tell.
        btw I never write what people want to read I limit myself to what I think will actually happen.

      • Golden Trumpet

        Every other country in the region has grown incredibly rich and has seen the rise of more than 2 billion people from poverty to middle class western standards directly because of China.

        Meanwhile the US and her allies have illegally invaded and bombed over a dozen countries in the same time and imposed or backed vassal dictators in a dozen more.

        But yeah – China seeks to defend the sea lanes directly off its coast and thats a threat.

        Its a threat only to the established order – are you a Sith lord ?

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        “But yeah – China seeks to defend the sea lanes directly off its coast and thats a threat.”

        You’ve got to be shi#*ing me. Directly off its coast? You are a comedian.

    • I don’t have an issue with China throwing its weight around it’s own borders, it’s a sovereign nation after all, however what I do have an issue with is the Chinese colonisation of Australia.

      • You apparently also don’t have a problem with the US throwing their weight around in the South China sea.

    • You are probably right Fisho. Also no critisism in the wests hyperventillating media of the US and Europe enforcing a global trade embargo on Iran, Syria and Iran despite them being of no military threat to them. I hope Iran shuts down the strait of Hormuz then the western private finance empire would really excrete itself.

    • fishno

      You wrote

      “there’s no doubt that the US profited handsomely from what was effectively a blockade”

      There has been no blockade – commercial ships have no problem navigating the area from any country. The local countries were the winners from this, while the US paid for it. Now local countries are seeking US protection – eg Philippines and even Vietnam is getting closer to the US despite the ‘Nam War.

      Japan is terrified of the changes and is now looking to become militaristic.

      I think you have too much time on hands and need to get back to work to stop yourself from fantasying about world politics.

      You seem to have a real bee in the bonnet about the US. If its OK for China to throw off its supposedly pacifist face then its OK for others to act more assertively, including the US.

      • What if “fantasying about world politics” just happens to be my new job?
        Yeah I know they probably should have gotten someone else to do the fantasying, but I suspect they all lacked imagination.
        Not being able to Imagine a world that’s different from the one you know, is very comforting to the reader but is also very limiting and results in all kinds of missed opportunities. If you followed MB’s lead than China was going to implode at least 5 years ago. that kind of missed calculation will cost interested parties a lot of money.

        Just for the record: I have no problem with the US acting assertive in the region. Geopolitics is a delicate dance, done properly it’s wondrous to behold, but than we have the Don’s dance. Lets be honest he has two left feet and seems to think that head banging punk is making a come-back.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The US strategy is simple : to prevent the rise of any adversary that can potentially threaten it. Playing the role of policeman in the South China Sea effectively stops Japan and China from ever becoming a threat : until technology can find a way to bypass the distance anyway.

      • Yep. Trouble is, over the long term, this formula has failed for every nation that tried to execute from the same play-book that the US is using. Maybe they’ll be the exception, but in all honesty I doubt it. I suspect the US lack the introspection to see themselves as others see them, and that’s likely to be their Achilles heal.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Yep. Those silly Easter Islanders using up their naval vessel construction materials to build big heads with. Muppets.

    • Fisho

      “If you followed MB’s lead than China was going to implode at least 5 years ago. that kind of missed calculation will cost interested parties a lot of money.”

      I agree with you that China is not going to implode – it will get stronger, but probably at a slower rate than it has been doing over the last 30 years.

    • Fisho, The US’ actions (past or present) in no way justify China’s present actions.
      Sampling history is always a bad measure.
      Do the actions of Napoleonic France justify China’s actions?
      What about expansionist Imperial Japan’s actions before and during WW2?
      Your post is a notable departure from the widely accepted views on MB.
      What’s behind your passive, lay-down-in-front-of-China thinking?

  2. Duterte, Lol. He’s good at getting his goons to murder teenagers, and generally behaving like a movie tough guy. Except movie tough guys aren’t actually very tough.

    I reckon everybody is very likely to faff around and let the Chinese do whatever they please. Except for the Vietnamese. If I was the Chinese gummint, I wouldn’t push the Vietnamese, for fear of not getting my hand back. They’d best move that “survey” ship before it ends up like the Australian economy.

    • Yep. Vietnam know the Chinese are bullies and that the best strategy is to go hard and early.
      Ho chi Minh said something to the effect that it isn’t the war with America that worries him, knowing they would win. He was always worried about “the real war” against China. The brief war in the 70s was the starting point.
      It will be funny if the Americans end up back in Vietnam fighting with the VC against the Chinese. Won’t happen though as that breaches rule 1: don’t get in a comtimental land war with China.

  3. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    seems like its all coming undone, Chinese don’t handle the whole losing face thing well, this could get ugly fast

  4. mikef179MEMBER

    Well, it distracts people’s attention away from what is happening in the Chinese banking system. I think I saw a movie on this once…

  5. david collyer

    It will only take one Chicom miscalculation to boil the South China Sea and maybe end communism once and for all.

    While all the dear heart progressives are busy calling Trump a racist, he is actually doing something to defeat totalitarianism – like that other US President they get hissy about, Ronald Regan and his “Tear down this Wall!” taunt at President Gorbachev.

    Meanwhile, the trade war is quickly remaking production systems, grinding away the CCP’s sole durable power foundation – economic growth.

    • Well, that’s because he is a racist. He’s no Ronald Reagan. China policy seems OK so far. As far as defeating totalitarianism? That’s a big call. How does a totalitarian do that, anyway? More like he is tearing down American democratic institutions on a daily basis.

      • “China policy seems OK so far.”

        Only from a fascist/racist/Nazi Chinese perspective. The local countries in the region do not like what China is doing, but yeah you do not care what they think so long as China takes their resources and dominates the countries.

        You are not a Chinese stooge by any chance, like those beating up students at the University of Queensland the other day?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yes. Every now and again someone eventually gets around to talking about what’s impt. on this site. Benjamins.

      Well observed DC.

  6. China (deservedly) now encircled by a ring of enemies.

    Donald Trump didn’t take long to fix up the total failure of the Obama Clinton ‘Asian pivot’ and turn China into a regional and now global pariah.

    On Trump’s first day, he waived off the planned Chinese invasion of Taiwan / one China.
    Trump then reinforced the US alliance & nuclear shield for Japan, Taiwan & South Korea.
    Trump then set about isolating and knackering china’s little mad dog North Korea – and finally reclaiming the South China Sea as international waters.
    Along the way, China’s OBOR completely failed as the antipathy in Chinese neighbors was exploited into open anti Chinese sentiment.
    And then the Venezuela & now Iran ‘choke’ on Chinese’s oil & gas supply.

    Of course in any conflict with China – Australia is there as the US regional sheriff – joint naval bases and regional defence as our obligation.
    But the US now fights it’s wars via proxies, and it’s highly likely that Australia will be pushed to the front in an open conflict with China.

    The US has been warning Australian long and hard about the Chinese communist infiltration and influence in Australia.
    When it comes to a real shooting war and confrontation it’s likely Australia will be targeted by China so as to not directly confront the US & 4,200 nuclear armed missiles (v China’s 280).

    So let’s say that happens & is even likely.
    (China & Australia in direct military conflict)

    China is 31% of our exports. (50% is to north Asia).
    Australian can be expect to be embargoed as China will use trade as an economic weapon.

    And then we have the ‘Chinese in Australia’ issue that the US has been warning Australia about for 10 years.

    We have 1.3 million Chinese mainland born communists onshore in Australia.
    930,000 have flooded into Australia in the last 15 years.
    Incredible, but true.
    And they aren’t the best or brightest, or ones who ‘fled China’ to ‘embrace western freedom & democracy’.

    Nope. The vast majority – over 90% are a Hukuo underclass of 2nd & 3rd generation peasant internal illegals – unskilled, old, sick, useless, petty criminals and vice workers – basically China’s lowlife.
    They paid $2k for a PR – and were trafficked in by the Chinese foreign criminal rackets – with full Chinese government support.

    China is cleansing 100 million of these Hukuo out of their tier 1 cities.
    The original plan was to resettle them in the now ‘ghost cities’ built for them, but all too hard. So the Chinese communist party and their foreign criminal traffickers started to export them to other countries as part of the ‘greater China’ colonisation vision. Lowlife yes – but hard core communists.
    9.7 million Hukuo underclass have been exported to the South Asia, Africa & the west.

    Australia has taken in 1.3 million of these Hukuo underclass.
    Go ask any Chinese National (1.3 million to ask) about their Hukuo status and how they got into Australia.
    Ask them about their parents & grandparents (non tier 1 city – peasant stock – Hukuo underclass.
    What sort of visa they initially entered on, how much, the bribes paid, the agent debt loan repayments, them being used a mules (dirt poor peasants used to launder in the dirty money into Australia). Or if they care to share the shame, their social credit score.

    Over 1.1 million of the 1.3 million are onshore living and working in Australia but are not Australian citizens.

    They are ‘China First’ mainland born, communist (they know nothing else as you will see) sole passport Chinese Nationals.

    We have:
    🇨🇳 238,000 Chinese mainland born communists now as citizens. Mostly early wave Chinese mainland born. Old. Here to steal the Medicare & welfare. Many can’t speak English even after a decade. Only 131,000 (adults) of these Chinese can actually vote.
    This is why despite the massive Chinese mainland born communist presence of 1.3 million in Australia and the very high concentration in Chinese only enclaves – they have very little political power.
    That is why the Chinese bribe, collude, influence & corrupt our local, state & federal government rather than via the electoral box.

    🇨🇳428,000 Chinese mainland born communists as PR.
    China First nationalists -on sole Chinese passport but sucking up the Medicare & welfare benefits.
    They can’t vote. China’s poor old sick and welfare burden being dumped into Australia.

    🇨🇳293,000 TR – of which 185,000 are foreign students and ‘partners’ and the rest across a spray of other pretext visa alibis.

    🇨🇳135,000 as SCV – couldn’t get in the Australian front door so via the NZ transit lounge and other ‘stepping stone countries into Australia.

    🇨🇳190,000 illegally working & living Chinese mainland born communists as so called ‘Tourists’ or ‘visitors’
    Or here for the medical tourism – the borrowed Medicare card or to stockpile & resell the PBS drugs back in China.
    We have 8.8 million tourist visitors yearly with 5% or 440,000 being estimated by DHA / ABF to be here working illegally.
    The majority are Chinese, Indian, then south east Asia.
    So that’s possibly an underestimate.

    Plus on top of all this – at least 20,000 or so Chinese mainland born communists overstayers.

    -> 🇨🇳Total 1.304 million Chinese mainland born communists.

    The epi-centre of our crime, vice, money laundering, welfare & Medicare fraud, non assimilation.
    Implacably opposed or ignorant (as non assimilated) of anything but Chinese racial superiority and communism as their ideological values.

    1.3 million Chinese mainland born communists onshore in Australia with only a tiny fraction that are citizens (238,000) so little voting power & no real claim to any tenure in Australia as PR, TR or TV and basically our enemy.

    Our enemy socially, economically, ideologically and soon militarily.

    These Chinese are and will remain China First communists – beholden to a Chinese left wing racist and fascist (it means totalitarian) Chinese national socialist regime* Imprinted and controlled by Beijing)

    “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” as Xi said.

    1,062,000 Chinese communists of the 1.3 million are in Australia as non citizens.

    Are we going to cleanse out the 638,000 Chinese communist TR, SCV & TV working illegals who shouldn’t have been allowed in?

    We should anyway – based on a whole range of economic, social and cultural needs for that.

    Our city housing used by the corrupted criminal Chinese to launder their dirty into via the PR proxy then be used for blatant mass scale migrant cash in hand slum occupancy.

    A good cleanout of this layer of criminal & transient Chinese would benefit all Australia.

    What about the 428,000 Chinese mainland born communist PR?
    Many can’t speak English after years of a parasitic existence on our welfare and Medicare, but they remain China First communist – living in Chinese enclave slums, non assimilated.
    Again either implacably opposed to our values & democracy, or totally incapable of ever understanding and supporting it.
    Brainwashed and controlled by the Chinese communist party organisers here.

    Should these chinese nationals as PR be interned for public safety?
    Or do we just bite the bullet – revoke their PR and return then back to China as a Chinese National.
    It happened before in Indonesia when they were forced to expel such Chinese.

    And then finally the Chinese mainland born communists that actually have Australian citizenship.

    These include the high level & most corrupt Chinese communist organisers, criminals and infiltrators in China’s ‘South Guangzhou’ colonization program.

    I would suggest every one needs to be vetted, and their citizenship cancelled or placed in internment for the public’s safety and security.

    They certainly all need vetting.

    Are we ready for a military conflict with China?
    It’s quite possible.

    Are we ready in what we need to do domestically to remove the Chinese threat to our society?

    Maybe a military conflict with China is a good thing.

    It would be a wake up call to address the mistakes in our immigration program – and allow the expulsion of at least 1 million mainland born communist Chinese ‘non citizens’ – who should have not been allowed into Australia in the first place.

    • Mate, you should get your own site with that load of racist xenophobic BS.
      Yes there are some issues.
      Simple solution Australia should not allow dual citizenship for any non democratic countries, including China.

      • So it’s racist and xenophobic to state the Chinese are racist and xenophobic. That’s really funny.

        Firstly China doesn’t allow dual passports.
        That’s why the majority of Chinese mainland born communists here are PR or TR (see below)

        Second ‘dual passport only for democratic countries’.
        Syria, Bangladesh, Russia. Pakistan. Saudi Arabia.
        Or ‘democracies’ run by fascist racially based dictatorships / Singapore / or class based fronts for a military dictatorship / Thailand. And the many others.
        You just haven’t a clue.
        Because China only allows a sole passport, that is why we only have 238,000 Chinese mainland born communists as Australia citizens – but another 428,000 as ‘PR’ sucking up our Medicare & welfare.
        Exported by China to be our burden but choosing to remain 🇨🇳 China First 🇨🇳 hard core china nationalist. Totally non assimilation. Not here to assimilate. Haven’t assimilated anywhere in any country even after generations. Why the locals in every country for eons that China has tried to colonize eventually rebel & kill or expel the Chinese – Japan, Koreas, Indonesia, Africa, Tonga, Vietnam you name it.

        Facts are Mr B – we have allowed highly racist and xenophobic Chinese ghettos in our major cities populated by hard core chinese underclass communists.

        Re the 100 million Hukuo underclass being cleansed from their China tier 1 city slums and 9.7 million have being exported to the west & other countries wutt the Chinese criminal syndicates & goverment in collusion.

        That’s ‘all BS’ hey? You would know huh? Ever travelled across China east to west & north to south?

        Well I gave you the link to read from a credible source and it’s easily verified as correct.
        Maybe you need to go to China and see the racism, xenophobia and ideological brainwashed left wing fascist national socialism at work for yourself.

        Maybe you should even get to know a few Chinese or a lot of them – to reshape your views to reality.


        The bigger point was that Australia is likely to be a casualty in any China US / north Asia conflict.
        That’s the article & my comment.

        Australia is an easy & weak target for trade impact & a direct military confrontation by China.

        China would never take on the US who are 20 times more powerful in nuclear capability & the US will try to avoid direct confrontation.
        Both fight their military and political wars via proxies.

        🔻And so the question again..

        What to do with 1.3 million Chinese who are mainland born communists onshore in Australia?
        We have already seen violence breakout between the Chinese factions. We have seen evidence of mass scale Chinese communist coercion and spying / enforcement of the Chinese here against Australia’s National or social interests.

        Only 238,000 of these 1.3 million Chinese mainland born communists are actually citizens.
        And even within this tiny subset / many hard core China First nationalists even tho on an Australia passport.
        They need to be monitored, tracked, controlled.

        The other 1.06 million Chinese mainland born communists in Australia are in China sole passports.
        They are PR, TR, Tourist visitors working illegally & overstayers. Again the numbers given.

        🔹Do we round them up and put them in detainment camps?

        🔹Or do we deport them all as enemy aliens?

        And the key point.
        Isnt this the opportunity for Australia to expel these 1.1 million China National sole passport holders who have sneaked in on the PR, TR, SCV, TV visas and send them back to be China’s problem.

        That helps rectify the immigration mistakes made in the last decade.
        Most people would think that is logical.
        If China is an economic and military enemy of Australia, then why would we tolerate enemy Chinese nationals here at all?
        And as outlined enemy Chinese National here on a visa pretext and engaged in criminal & illegal activity.
        Of course they should be expelled.

        What do you think China is doing already with westerners in China?

        Your naive race card waving doesn’t work here.

        Especially when the actual threat is highly racist xenophobic Chinese Nationals that are left wing national socialists, loyal only to a fascist (it means totalitarian) 🇨🇳China First🇨🇳 Communist Regime

        Who live in rascist & xenophobic Chinese Nationals only ghettoes, on pretext visas, in visa breach and are the epicentre of people trafficking, vice, drugs, money laundering and other criminal activity in Australia.

        Why shouldn’t they be rounded up & expelled?

    • Ekkimmb – love your work, loved it when you posted under old mike. I see new Michael immediately threw you the lefty racist accusation – not a single coherent response or riposte to logic or facts.
      Michael – go find some diversity, inclusion and vibrancy at Footscray station tonight…you fascist doos.

      • Fake news mate.

        But I’m sure it will help you find some good scapegoats to vent your anger on

        I do however support legally clamping down on those who are not loyal patriotic citizens. You should not be able to keep China citizenship when you become an Australian citizen. At the same time immigration should probably be cut in half. Neither of those actions require racism. In fact a racist approach will certainly be counterproductive.

      • 🙂 ha ha – he simply has no idea.

        A naive little race card flag waver acting as an apologist for the highly racist xenophobic Chinese..

        See the reply to set him straight.
        China doesn’t allow dual passports.
        And clearly doesn’t know China or Chinese and seen the reality.
        Or the racist xenophobic Chinese ghettoes here.

        The 1.3 million Hukuo Chinese underclass trafficked into Australia by the Chinese criminal syndicates and the party – aren’t here to assimilate.

        A good military confrontation with China may be a blessing in disguise in providing the basis to expel at least 1.05 million of them that should never have been allowed in.

      • Question for ekimmib: just how do you go about identifying and then expelling 1 million people from this country? Don’t think that it’s doable.

    • HadronCollisionMEMBER

      In any conflict you would make continued residence here for those you mention , for the relevant age groups, contingent on being conscripted and serving on the front line.

      • Yep- that’s got merit.
        Like the US Japanese regiment who fought for the US in WW2. But they were 2nd generation US born citizens of Japanese descent sent to Europe to fight the left wing national socialists.

        But the Japanese nationals and all Japanese born were deported or interned as a US national security risk.

        “Japanese internment camps were established during World War II by President Franklin Roosevelt through his Executive Order 9066. From 1942 to 1945, it was the policy of the U.S. government that people of Japanese descent would be interred in isolated camps”

        Same in Canada
        “Beginning after the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, and lasting until 1949, Japanese Canadians were stripped of their homes and businesses and sent to internment camps and farms in the B.C. interior and across Canada”.

        And in Australia.
        During the Second World War, all Japanese residents were interned en masse. Germans and Italians were also interned on the basis of their nationality. More than 12,000 people were interned in Australia.

        Many of the 238,000 Chinese mainland born communists who citizens here are hard core & 🇨🇳 China First 🇨🇳 and would in a China Australia military conflict would be the enemy within so yes vetting and internment.

        But as for the 1.050 million Chinese Nationals in Australia on PR & TR / SCV & TV – who in a military conflict with China would all be Chinese Nationals and most definitely the enemy within.

        And as pointed out, the vast majority are a Chinese a Hukuo underclass deliberately dumped here by China as a social & economic burden, or on a visa pretext working & living illegally.

        Most are criminal illegals in false visa entry or visa breach.
        The majority of the Chinese TR & TV are engaged in some form of criminal activity (visa or COE breach) or corrosive social behaviour.

        The simple answer is to cancel all these 1.06 million Chinese mainland born Chinese mainland born communist China only passport holders visas and deport them all en masse.

        Our 2 main cities emptied out a million Hukuo Chinese, migrant guestworkers.
        The vast Chinese migrant guestworkers slums housing seized, cleansed & reclaimed & returned back to our Australian homeless and poor.

        The million or so Australian jobs stolen recovered. Our education system restored to Australians.

        That helps (partially) fix up the immigration mistakes of the last decade.

        This 1 million plus Chinese Hukuo PR, TR / SCV & TV societal threat & burden should never have been allowed in to Australia in the first place.