Hamish Douglass: Trump is right

Advertisement

Yes he is, via The Australian comes the Magellan maestro:

“I actually think Trump isn’t right about a lot, but he is right about the core issue that they appear to be doing it on unfair terms.

“They’ve been stealing intellectual property, they’ve been requiring foreign companies who want to participate in their massive market to transfer their IP as a cost of doing business, and if they can’t get it, they go and steal the technology through their cyber theft. They have massive state-owned enterprises, which get huge subsidies.

“They use those subsidies to take market share on a global scale. It’s a very real issue and the US is trying to reset that relationship … but China has outlined a list of industries it wants to dominate.”

“It’s become a little more uncertain in the past few weeks whether or not this will actually be resolved,” he said. “We could get into a severe, trade-war/cold-war environment or we could actually have it settled and it’s very difficult to know which way this coin is going to flip. The markets are pricing that Trump is going to do a deal with Xi.

“Our best assessment is that it is probably the most likely outcome, but there are political overlays — what is the best thing going into the presidential election in 2020, maybe a dispute with China and immigration should be the big topics.”

Well said. It marks a turning point of sorts. Australian “business” (whatever that is) is a terrible China groveler. The more it comes out against the Communist Party of China the better off Australia will be.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.