Bravo Quexit!

Leith and I are relieved. Despite MB having effectively written large swathes of Labor reform policy over the past decade, after the last few months neither of us could endorse the party. That was a warning to ourselves that we ignored in favour of polling, foolishly, given that art form is now completely in the dog house.

Queensland destroyed the ALP on Saturday with a 4%+ swing against:

There are plenty of reasons being mooted for why:

  • Adani
  • unemployment
  • Bill Shorten is unpopular

And on it goes. Nowhere have a I seen what is the key reason. It’s the same reason that the LNP changed leaders in the first place, which has also been buried by a wowserish press. Open borders Malcolm Turnbull could not get traction up north. Queensland has had enough of globalisation, mass immigration in particular, and wants out of both.

It might be argued that the big swings to One Nation and United Australia that kept the LNP in power via preferences are of a different nature.  ON is obviously first and foremost an anti-immigration party. It is not at all clear what UAP is given its policies are all over the place, though they’re certainly anti-Chinese. But what both parties share is a platform and rhetoric that puts Australia first. They are nationalist parties both, focused on Australian people, the Australian economy and Australian politics.

Sure, Labor made the strategic blunder of going overboard with too big and too detailed a reform agenda that meant it could not sweep other states either. But QLD was where is was lost and it is QLD that it will need to win back.

To that extent I offer the following from Denmark via The Guardian:

She marked her return on Facebook, with a video straight out of a Quentin Tarantino film, buttoning her jacket, arranging her hair and slipping on stiletto heels to heavy metal music. “I’m ready again,” she declared to camera. “Let’s get this bus rolling.”

Mette Frederiksen, leader of Denmark’s opposition Social Democrats, was in hospital with food poisoning when the prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, called a general election last week, and was two days late joining the campaign.

But the 41-year-old has all the momentum, with her left-of-centre bloc starting with an eight percentage point lead, and few doubting that she will become Denmark’s youngest-ever prime minister after the election on 5 June.

“I’m super excited because we so desperately need a change of government,” said campaign volunteer Malou Astrup Clemmensen as she prepared to hand out roses on the streets of Copenhagen for Frederiksen’s campaign launch.

A victory for Frederiksen would be a boon for Europe’s social democrats as they gaze across the continent at a dispiriting political landscape. But it would not be without controversy, for under Frederiksen the party has been ruthlessly reshaped: dragged to the left economically – and sharply to the right on immigration.

“For me, it is becoming increasingly clear that the price of unregulated globalisation, mass immigration and the free movement of labour is paid for by the lower classes,” she said in a recent biography.

Denmark’s current right-wing coalition government last year enacted the most anti-immigration legislation in Danish history and, rather than position her party in stark opposition, Frederikson has embraced much of it.

Under her leadership, the SD have called for a cap on “non-western immigrants”, for asylum seekers to be expelled to a reception centre in North Africa, and for all immigrants to be forced to work 37 hours a week in exchange for benefits.

She has reached out to the populist Danish People’s party (DPP), doing a series of joint interviews with its leader, Kristian Thulesen Dahl, and discussing cooperating with them in government.

But it is the government policies her party has supported or failed to oppose which have been most alarming for her allies in the left-of-centre red bloc. The Social Democrats voted in favour of a law allowing jewellery to be stripped from refugees, and a burqa and niqab ban, and abstained rather than voted against a law on mandatory handshakes irrespective of religious sentiment at citizenship ceremonies, and a plan to house criminal asylum seekers on an island used for researching contagious animal diseases. In February, she backed what the DPP has branded a “paradigm shift” – a push to make repatriation, rather than integration, the goal of asylum policy.

“I find it odd that it’s possible to make such a shift, not just in your policy but also in your fundamental values,” Morton Østergaard, leader of the centrist Social Liberal party, told the Observer. “What’s different in Denmark is that we’re seeing parties coming out of a Liberal or Social Democrat value base eating into national conservatism in a race-to-the-bottom contest, because they’ve decided that the marginal voter can’t get tough enough on immigrants.”

Many believe her party’s new populist profile is a pure power play. The Danish People’s party has slipped from 21% in the 2015 elections to below 13%, according to a poll of polls by the Berlingske newspaper.

An internal Social Democrat survey of the party’s core voters carried out last autumn found that 37% of loyal Social Democrat voters thought immigration policy was too lax. And this was after three years of the most anti-immigration government in Danish history.

Frederiksen has dealt harshly with any internal dissent. When her party colleague Mette Gjerskov, a former minister, vociferously opposed the burqa ban, a rival candidate for her seat came forward at the same time as the local Social Democrat mayor suggested it might be time to change MP. Gjerskov fended off the challenge, but was then fired as the party’s international development spokesman.

“I was aware that shifting the position in the party would take a lot, but I knew that I had to win that fight,” Frederiksen said in the biography. “Normally, I would seek to compromise, but not on immigration policy.”

The real left does not focus on identity politics. In the Marxist theory of power there is “base” (the forces of production, that is, capital), and superstructure (identity, culture, etc). Power only flows from the base upwards, not the other way around. Thus, any leftist party that is focused too much on superstructure is forgetting about class and begins to work for the very powers that they are supposed to regulate.

This should not be a repudiation of liberalism, either. Raw socialism is an historical disaster. But what leftist parties must not do is lose touch with the deleterious impacts that their liberal policies have upon the what Hillary Clinton labeled the “deplorables” as she, too, lost.

I applaud Queenslanders for handing the Australian Labor Party the same message. Australia needs a complete rethink of how its capital and labour borders operate to determine winners and losers within the country. Mass immigration has especially become the “everything issue”, permeating all standards of living issues like radiation. As toxic as it is invisible, shut down by the rabid wowsers of the fake left.

Labor gave borders only the faintest thought in the lead up to the election. It made passing reference to temporary visas but made bold plans to expand migrant intakes across the board. It launched a staggeringly destructive policy for an aged migrant tsunami. And it unleashed crazy old men like Paul Keating to explicitly argue that we toss the nation to the Communist Party of China (CPC) dictatorship.

Labor’s entire borders platform was completely barking mad. This as the Western world gave abundant warning that an anti-globalisation revolution is afoot, as in Denmark.

We warned a Labor insider of this several years ago. The response then was that Labor was “an immigration fundamentalist”. This ideological extremism has now cost it government. Much worse, they’ve taken down the national interest reform program with them. Not to mention, poisoned the well on reform forever more.

It’s not at all clear that the LNP government is up to the task of the required nationalist rethink either. It has nudged that way with minor immigration cuts. But neither Morrison nor Dutton has shown much interest in carrying forward Turbull’s China push back project. And the party looks deep in thrall to the open borders corporate growth lobby.

But it was abundantly clear entering the weekend that Labor’s globalist nutters were going to make it all disastrously worse, including accelerating Australia towards some kind of dark CPC future.

Queenslanders voted accordingly and have bought Australia time. Labor will not win them back until it gets the message that Australia and Australians come first. The LNP had better listen more intently too.

Bravo Quexit!

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the fouding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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Comments

  1. But, Australian Labor being the obstinate beast that it is, will have learned nothing from this and will continue careering down the same path, likely with a ‘leader appropriate for the times’ in the form of either Plibeserk or Wong.

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      Exactly. Have the US Democrats learned anything? Nope, they just dug in and have gone for even nuttier candidates and policies. While spending 2.5 years trying to topple a democratically elected President through undemocratic means. Labor will probably spend their time in opposition hunting down LNP politicians with dual citizenship or who groped a woman 20 years ago or something rather than trying to come up with electable policies.

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      Exactly. Have the US Democrats learned anything? Nope, they just dug in and have gone for even nuttier candidates and policies. While spending 2.5 years trying to topple a democratically elected President through undemocratic means. Labor will probably spend their time in opposition hunting down LNP politicians with dual citizenship or who groped a woman 20 years ago or something rather than trying to come up with electable policies.

    • Exactly! Both parties have too many fundamentalists that won’t change ie Labor’s open borders & Libs “free market” which is nothing of the sort

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        “not clear why soy is a perjorative?”

        “Soy boy” is the modern equilivant of “Champaign Socialist”,… I think.
        🤔

      • DominicMEMBER

        From the (ahem) ever reliable Urban Dictionary:

        “The average soy boy is a feminist, nonathletic, has never been in a fight, will probably marry the first girl that has s*x with him, and likely reduces all his arguments to labelling the opposition as “Nazis”.

        So, yes, champagne socialist, wet lettuce, snowflake — all apply 😉

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    No, your views on this are just as elitist. Labor lost because of Loser Shorten, that’s it. Everyone hates that guy. I tried telling youse all it would mean a great Liberal Nationalist Party victory. And it’s just like I’ve been trying to tell you the new supreme intense substantial boom in house prices is building.

    • You should read between the lines – Shorten was sent by the Governor General to torpedo the ALP from within. I mean, he was so unpopular and yet somehow sustainably held up at the head of the ALP for a long time. It would have been an untenable position unless he had been protected by a greater force.

      Last time I checked, the sovereign of Australia does not even live in the same hemisphere. Straya’s Master has changed from the great British Empire to the great American Corporate Empire over the years, but some things do not change – Straya’s purpose of existence has always been to serve its Master: by providing blood in the battlefields during the two world wars, by providing nuclear testing sites in the 1950s, and by opening the gates in the 2000s and 2010s. More to the point, such outdated identity politics like “Australia and Australians come first” just does not suit Straya. Straya should instead just mind their own house prices.

    • Spot on reusa. I was saying same thing for years. The snake and his minions were not for the lodge! clean em all out, start with new team and sell us a vision. If fairness is your platform, dont pick on just one group.

  3. m_l_narasimhan

    Good article.
    I think some of the reasons, Labor lost it are,
    1) Support for this unbridled immigration.
    2) Franking credit Issue.
    3) and to an extant, China Angle.

    How is it that such a big party could not understand the ground realities.
    Labor lost the election and therefore the Liberals won.

    • Because the branches are ignored. The ALP practices a caste system with elites and untouchable. The irony

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        Mig Tweeted me a screen shot of your post Tony.
        I think he did this because like me he believes the only way to save our Great Nation is for all Australia loving citizens to Join up and retake and purge the Australian Labor party and return it to its traditional path of representing Working people’s interests!

        https://www.alp.org.au/about/join-labor/

        Unlike me though he feels all boomers are to blame (for everything I presume) and require “elimination” what ever thst means.
        Though an understandable sentiment to hold, its a little bit to harsh in my view.
        I mean “They” arnt all ar$eholes,…are they?
        There was certainly a lot of them celebrating the LNP victory on Alan Jones’s 2GB this morning.
        It was difficult to listen to.

      • EP … to be fair Alan Jones is always impossible to listen to. I can’t understand why so many listen to him. Unless radio ratings are as accurate as polls ….

    • In all honesty as much as this page may never admit it the swing marginal bellweather seats (often in the suburbs) NG/CGT reform was probably a big reason why they lost as well. These voters will never say it publicly for the same reason I think the polls were wrong – it wasn’t popular to disagree with the change pushed by inner city progressives so instead they stayed slient and took their opinion’s to the polling booth. For regional towns who had more elastic land supply NG/CGT was a non-issue and for the more regional centre’s and outer suburbs the threat of negative equity probably weighed more than housing affordability. In these areas younger people do own homes, saved up for years and don’t want to see their deposit/hard work lost. Heard Tanya P answer to a question “they won’t be in negative equity for long” which is almost as bad as Bowen’s “if you don’t like us don’t vote for us”. It’s Australia not America – humility is valued more here than overconfidence.

      If they just focused on wages and penalty rates, and lowering immigration without the big risk of NG and franking credit’s reform they probably would have at least made minority government. After all any house price losses are going to far dwarf any small rise in wages and probably cause a few job losses to boot. People are really worried out there about the economy; tradies I’ve spoke to are starting to get desperate for work which is a rarity.

      • McPaddyMEMBER

        They’ll ”never say it” because the position is shameful and indefensible. Self interest pure and simple. People understand that they would rightly be judged harshly for this so they keep their mouths shut and exercise their vote instead of speaking up. That’s what the silent majority is. Fearful, selfish pricks.

      • Straya is in a classic catch 22 situation – it cannot keep borrowing and yet at the same time cannot stop borrowing either.

        Some have finally begun to realize how deep their predicament goes but are paralyzed to act….. yes I can sense their fear. One missed payment and their journey to the Moron Side will be complete.

      • Denis413MEMBER

        Can’t lower immigration for the same reason LNP won’t – it’s where the growth is coming from…

    • An excellent piece of commentary:

      https://johnmenadue.com/ian-mcauley-dutton-knew-what-he-was-doing-when-he-booted-out-turnbull/#more-28061

      Dutton and Morrison have captured the vote of the most disadvantaged – people who are never going to get to the point of worrying about franking credits or the capital gains on their five investment properties. These are the very people who stood to gain from Labor’s policies.

      They have been duped.

      It was a clever campaign, by two men skilled in the deceptive arts of advertising. In an unholy deal Clive Palmer provided the money while Scott Morrison provided the spiel – a spiel so laden with spite and falsehood that it made Tony Abbott look like a child of the Enlightenment.

      The gravity of the situation is that we have just elected a government that has no intention of addressing our structural weaknesses: inattention to climate change (both our international obligations and the need to deal with local consequences), wealth and income inequality, unsustainable household debt, a set of financial incentives that encourage wealth extraction rather than wealth creation, a narrow export base, declining education standards, underfunded government services, and inadequate infrastructure. Far from addressing these weaknesses, every indication is that Dutton, Morrison and their supporters will aggravate them.

      Dutton and Morrison have raised expectations among people who are anxious, insecure and who feel that the “elites” (Turnbull, the Labor Party) have been looking down on them. What these supporters face, however, is disillusionment.

      Their arrogance, their hubris, their contempt for our democratic institutions, and their sheer economic incompetence, will almost certainly lead Dutton and Morrison to unwise decisions. This at a time when the economic headwinds are already blowing.

      Having gone even further than Howard in purging moderates and liberals from the Coalition’s ranks, Dutton and Morrison have re-defined the Liberal Party, to occupy the space occupied by America’s Republicans and Germany’s Alternativ für Deutschland. It’s a space that’s unwelcoming to those men and women, guided by reason, evidence and a moral purpose, who seek public office to serve their country rather than to protect the privileges of those who plunder our common wealth.

      • TighterandTighter

        Oh well.

        Besides putting money on the Noalition, I at least can comfort myself with tax cuts.

        And if things go to sh$t, well, anyone who suffers and who voted for LNP, I got nothin for ya

      • A good piece above, I will actually benefit by$10-$12k a year less in tax under the Liberals. Go figure, but I voted against them because they stood for nothing but pure unregulated greed. So help us.

    • @m_l
      You forgot one –
      [email protected]@er YOUR job prospects – for those of US in the inner suburbs with a comfortable job it’s Global Warming that matters (even though Aus can do virtually nothing to stop it). Tanya referred to GW at least 3 times during her after election analysis on the ABC. Along of course with the statement that they “didn’t explain their policies well enough” (poor dull us)

      All in all I think the lesson from this election is that people put their IMMEDIATE survival (house prices/jobs) first so you had better explain your policies in terms of that…..

    • You are being too generous. If this is about Qld, and the northern states in particular, it is about local jobs. The Adani movement was people from Sydney and Melbourne (lots of jobs there) telling people in the FNQ that they can’t leverage their local assets for jobs.

      And Bob Brown and his gang drove north to throw gasoline on the fire.

      To suggest it is more than that is suggesting that the good folk of FNQ dissected and analysed the full portfolio of initiatives put forward by Labor.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        I tend to agree with you.
        No one likes outsiders telling them what is good for them.
        Both Greens and Labor made little if any effort to present a planned pathway out of Coal mining for the people of Central and Northern Queensland , instead they had a vague idea that “something” would be done.

      • Qld noth of Brisbane is where the election was won and lost, and as a Nth Qlder I can tell you it was ALL ABOUT Adani the Galililee Bsin,, it was jobs, it was the greens lies, Get ups bullsit. A special thankyou is reserved for Bob Brown who did more for securing the future of the Adani mine than any amount of pre Coal advertising could ever have done. If you don’t believe me wait until the state election, Labor are going to be obliterated, the anger in delaying ADANI is palpable and there is almost an excitement in the air at the prospect of, and opportunity to, punish Labor

  4. One has the impression that Wong and many others of the current ALP elite could barely stand to hold the workers of QLD and WA at arm’s length even if they wore deodorant.

    What irony, as these are more like the voter old base of the ALP labour movement than inner suburban ALP could ever be. They should be the heartland, but they are being driven to the far Right as they are seen as the ideological enemy to people like Wong who has become the shining talisman of feminist, lesbian and Asian immigrant emancipation. For some reason this appeals to many of the ALP left who revel in identity politics, however the fascination with gay marriage, trans-rights and the ‘racist under the bed’ repels much of the ALP heartland – not predominantly due to bigotry, but because it simply does not rate as the major political issue in N-QLD and WA. Personally, I don’t care about sexuality, gender and race as an issue – only competence. I am deeply suspicious of those who make it their main political selling point or expect me to be impressed.

    The Canberra echo-chamber and the gentrification of the ALP has allowed the elite to convince themselves that everyone thinks the same – and if they don’t they are racist, sexist, homophobes that we don’t wish to have in our trendy party where no one can risk even telling a fart joke anymore. It has allowed the ALP to throws up delusions that betray utter ignorance. That they think that new immigrants from highly socially conservative cultures, who generally dislike gay politics, will vote for them due to their ‘diversity rant’ platform is insane. Coupled to this is the belief that China would be hanging out for a Malaysian born, Cantonese speaking lesbian foreign Minister. Totally delusional given the utter prejudice for all three very uncool markers in mainland China!

    This has allowed the ALP to ignore its heartland and focus on boutique issues. It has given rise to a belief that they just need to decorate the elephant in the living room (mass immigration, wage stagnation and ALP neoliberalism) with trinkets to attract a person in the inner city who might otherwise go the full retard and vote Fake Greens. But why bother trying to compete with the Fake Greens? It just makes the ALP own all the far Left madness that is electoral plutonium for its heartland.

    In reality, people in much of N QLD and WA worry about classic labour market issues that have been shoved aside by the ALP. These are the people the ALP forgot as they would simply not discuss mass immigration, national identity and Australian cultural issues – and in not doing so they have given them no place to go other than the far Right. My bet is that once they go, they are very hard to get back and this trend will continue until the ALP decides that peak diversity and PC insanity and has been reached. By that stage it will probably be too late for them.

    • fitzroyMEMBER

      The ALP was sunk by hubris exemplified by having Gillard Shorten Rudd and Keating on the same stage to celebrate unity! What were they smoking?

    • Great analysis Clive your comment should be on the agenda at parliamentary labor meetings until it’s fixed or they disappear.

    • Great writeup! I used to vote labor for the reasons you mentioned. Now they are nothing more than tryhard greens and have no place with the working class hence why they lost. They have lost their way and who knows if they will ever find it again.

    • The big issue for QLD in the follow up interviews seems to be jobs. The move to renewables is being ‘sold’ as all about climate change and carbon. Well, true, but it also creates jobs. The subsidies required for Adani to create 1200 jobs, needs to be specifically contrasted with the jobs created in the other areas by subsidies for job-creating future industries. Withdrawing the ‘wealthy pensioner tax bonus’ needed much better selling to explain that it meant pensioner cuts. The welfare education and other cuts needed to be sold. All up the Labour platform created a terrible, amorphous blob that looked like job losses not job gains. So … no one factor stood out except poor messaging. The too high rate of our immigration settings is having effects on people, even if they can’t explain the reason, but I wonder how effective a policy of setting it at 60K would be without a super salesman. The vested interests would be out in full.

      • agree. ALP never bothered to push the message of job creation. To build renewable energy would have created lot more jobs than ADANI but the message was not there. They fell in Scomo’s trap and kept trying to explain or rather justify their costs – idiots. They instead should have focused on the benefits.
        But then again that is Qld.. who the fck knows. Maybe Queenslanders prefer digging coal and getting lung disease over producing batteries, solar panels or maintaining wind turbines. They voted for the guy who hasn’t pay them wages but promised he might do so if they shut up and vote. lol

        And at the end the fear of house price declines was too high hill to claim for hords of aspirational Ausies who want to get a head..
        Even the bloke on the photo probably has $700k mortgage in woop woop and hoping to flip the fibro for tidy $100k profit in 18 months. Under Labour he knows he would have to give it away.

      • Those jobs to build batteries and solar panels will most likely end up in Greater Sydney or Melbourne. I can’t see a factory being established in Mackay. So yes, job opportunities at a national level, but not where they need them at the regional level.

      • Have you seen a wind farm being built. Its like a ghost town. A crane drive and a few riggers. An excavator and cable layer machines. A bit of techy sh*t at either end.
        Miners also know that if a coal mine is built it may be 600-1000 jobs for a year and needs 300 people to operate, a wind farm or solar farm take 3 people to operate. Mines have a 4 or 5 to one external services ratio. A dragline or wash plant shutdown employs another 100 people every few weeks. Renewable are not going to create mass jobs and transition will be painful ….. but what would a bunch of dumb miners know !!!

      • @Carl, there are more jobs than just the power generation, but renewables installation jobs won’t last any longer than any other construction job. So why not take the $2Bn for 1200 jobs and look at manufacturing the stuff. We did all the research in the first place. Now we just sell off the patents to overseas buyers. How many jobs do you think you could create for $2Bn if you put your mind to it? How about just fixing some country roads and helping the farmers export.

    • Clive, you’re not the first one to say this and there will be more to come. The only way it can be fixed is if it can be discussed, but I think media have their viewer base and they will keep pumping the same show until the money stops coming in.
      See Eric Weinstein’s Twitter on our election I posted below. Those who haven’t been captivated by the shallow guilt reprieve of identity politics are cottoning on.

    • For all those who credulously ask what does virtue signalling or SJW even mean, Clive’s post is a long form, elegant exposition of these shorthand terms.

    • +1 Boutique – the very word. And, it wont come as a surprise that in certain circles one senior Labor feminist lesbian is known as “The Sneer”.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Very true – spoke to a number of geezers over the weekend. Each and every one of them mentioned the Sneering Wong.

        That video clip of her refusing to shake the LNP guys hand did the rounds on social media and Facebook.

        The other great female Labor hope, Tanya P, is just as much on the nose because of her intersectional warrior ways.

        Wong, Pilberski, etc should just do Labor a giant favour and go off and join the Greens.

    • Too simplistic. Blaming their fixation on PC is as misguided as being PC in the first place. Wong is a minor part of a much larger organisation and message. And if you want to follow that line of argument, the LNP and their ‘gays in schools’ fixation is the opposite side of the same issue.

      Everyone keeps saying they ignored the working classes…but, Penalty rates, Child care assistant wages, Neg gearing (a loophole that favours capital), the environment….4 issues off the top of my head squarely affecting working and middle class people.

      Yes, they didn’t nail the message and I put it down to their aspiration outsizing their ability. Simple as that.

      Otherwise, someone will need to explain to me how becoming moar blue collar/working class will lead to an ALP victory when the electorate just rejected the bite-sized dose they were just offered.

      • TighterandTighter

        Great post.

        You’re right, of course. The problem is Labor’s changes were technical/policy perfection and I’m now convinced a lot of people are just plain dopey. (Notwithstanding the point re: Labor and China and immigration)

      • McPaddyMEMBER

        Yes. I see plenty of crowing that this election was proof that the “politics of envy” and “class war” will never work in Oz.

    • +1, Wong is the um, wrong answer. She’s the Head Prefect of Scotch College and never smoked a dhurry, had a bet on the dishlickers or suffered a blister in her life.

      • DominicMEMBER

        But she drinks a mean soy latte and just adores smashed avo on lightly toasted granary sourdough, darrrling …

        Labor will not see power again until the economy is in the Gary Glitter, unemployment is at 15% and enough citizens are in the depths of despair.

      • @Dom I agree mate, I cannot see how Labor can get those votes back. As Ermo says, if it’s not working class it’s not Labor (sorry if I paraphrased this wrong Ermo).

      • TighterandTighter

        Dom, you need new material.

        I didn’t vote Labor but I have soy in coffee, eat tofu, and love avocado (from my trees) on sourdough

        Lazy meming chief

  5. robert2013MEMBER

    A proper quexit actually makes some sense. QLD has a significantly higher proportion of Australian born making up its population. It also doesn’t run a trade deficit with the ROW.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        The average IQ. Apologies for the critique if you’re making your point as a Queenslander yourself.

        Not much you can do about that.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Average IQ of white Australia is 100…. it isn’t Queenslanders who are dragging down the national average.

      • DominicMEMBER

        I think the obsession with IQ is over-rated. For starters, a higher IQ leads to greater instances of ‘Progressive’ thinking, which is the last thing this country needs right now. What we need is less virtue-signalling and more entrepreneurialism — people rolling their sleeves up and working hard, building sustainable businesses and creating solid employment opportunities.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        I think the obsession with IQ is over-rated. For starters, a higher IQ leads to greater instances of ‘Progressive’ thinking,

        IQ doesn’t cause progressive thinking – indoctrination through University courses causes progressive thinking:

        “White supremacy is characterized by perfectionism, a belief in meritocracy, and the Protestant work ethic,” the executive said, adding that whites who object when accused of deep-rooted bias are called “fragile” and “Defensive”

        https://nypost.com/2019/05/18/nyc-schools-chancellor-richard-carranza-has-made-whiteness-toxic-doe-insiders-claim/

        The correlation between IQ and Progressive notions exists because our education system is indoctrinating otherwise bright people with this stupid values.

        End the University indoctrination and you’ll slash the progressive thinking, while still getting the associated benefits that come through having a population with a sufficiently high enough IQ base to deliver a functioning society capable of most effectively delivering meeting the needs of its citizens.

    • DominicMEMBER

      “… a significantly higher proportion of Australian born …”

      Not for much longer. Brisbane has been an immigration hotspot for at least 2 yrs and the spigot remains open and on turbo.

  6. For a long term, the first election post bust will be what they call a realignment election. Whoever is holding the bag at that moment will be in the wilderness for a long time. That is when the spell of the Moron Side will finally be broken.

    The question is, what will still be left to rebuild with. My guess is not much, but that may be a good thing, for even an epic bust may otherwise fail to break the spell.

    • I’m with you dumpling. I’m happy that libs got in, because this will help the moron side of the force keep growing until it either creates a new order in the galaxy or (hopefully, some day) collapses under the weight of the mountain of debt that it is accumulating and the internal tensions that are built up.

      That is the only way to destroy the moron side of the force.

      Oh, and higher interest rates. Those would annihilate the moron side as well.

      • If they’re smart Peachy they can decrease our “household debt to nominal gdp ratio” by printing money and causing inflation inflating that denominator. What I’ve learned this election is that houses are a store of wealth and we must keep that in nominal terms growing. In the end every other country is doing it – we’re always 6-10 years later to every party. As long as debt is denominated in AUD they can kick that can forever. Even better they will win more votes for doing so as people keep their jobs. Sure our AUD might fall but every other country has tried to get their dollar to fall too and they see that as a good thing.

        Long story short do you think anyone is raising interest rates anytime soon?

      • You’re finally learning, yes. The can can be kicked for a very long time.

        There is a lot of strength built into the AUD that can yet be traded away.

        Nobody is going to voluntarily raise interest rates anytime soon.

        The debt buildup must continue…. until it can not continue anymore. Any attempt to short-circuit the cycle run the risk of the monster not being killed dead…and reviving.

      • @Peachy – already knew it but the difference between you and I is you think it will implode where I think it can go on forever if they do the “right things”. Just got to keep that debt-to-money printed ratio manageable and given our fiat currency system this was an inevitability – all the “fiat credits” are made up anyway. Crashes are simply short term transfers from the indebted (weak holders) to the cash rich (strong holders) and don’t help the real people that “need a house” (never were in the game) similar to stock market crashes.

        That being as long as the rest of the world is doing it too so exchange rates don’t show the policy too much. In the end nominal figures (not inflation adjusted) do matter and can be traded – the Western World has lived long beyond its means inflating their debts away. Just print that money and put it into financial securities – in Australia that would be mortgage securities and households that are working. Upon doing this the cash rich hoping for a house price crash will now realise that they can keep it going forever and that at 0% interest rate fiat money printing money (MMT) will be the new norm – they better buy a house.

      • We don’t have a difference. We can’t have a difference because your position is a “me too, I’m like Peachy” position. 😉

        I think they can keep it going for at least as long as I’m alive, which is, for practical purposes “forever”.

        Might they misstep? sure! We’ll see if they do.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I believe the droids round here might finally be seeing a glimmer of realty. I mean reality.

        Perhaps a catchphrase will help move things along.

        My suggestion: Do not underestimate the lengths housing can be kicked for by the force.

    • JunkyardMEMBER

      I agree. To paraphrase Reusa, and as I like to say – burn it all down that will fix thing.

      I also don’t think there will be much left worth saving when things do collapse. Once Australia is a giant pile of sh!t full of working poor like many other Western countries, you might as well live in a country that has decent natural water supply and better mountain bike parks.

  7. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    What about the bread and butter issues ?

    Any lessons learned from New Zealand ?

    In large measure it was housing failure that lost the previous National / Conservative government the 2017 election …

    Gone Gone Going: The demise of New Zealand’s National led government … Performance Urban Planning

    http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/National%20News.html

    Governments lose elections … Oppositions don’t win them.

    Check out in particular the February Update and 2019 sections … and too … the long history of intense public discussion and broad = based political progress on these issues …

    Performance Urban Planning

    http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/index.html

    If you have an issue, it’s always a god idea to ‘follow the money’.

    Peoples major interest is their standard of living. Bread and butter issues so to speak.

    They know the cost of housing is the foundation issue … and that getting the price of land wrong means everything else is wrong.

    New Zealand Housing Minister Phil Twyford made this ‘crystal clear, within his late March speech to The New Zealand Initiative people.

    Check out the 2019 section of http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org .

  8. I don’t think the reason Labor lost is that complicated. They could not present the anti climate change initiatives in a way to counter the libs billions of dollars and thousands of jobs lost fear campaign. Fear is a bigger motivation than anything else. Those votes didn’t go to libs directly they went to UAP and one nation who’s preference sent them to libs. The people who moved away from Labor didn’t embrace libs at all. They moved elsewhere it’s just the preference system that got libs over the line.

    • Yep.
      Fear. Selfishness.
      My liberal friends were believing everything on Sky
      The only voters that stuck their opinion in my face without being invited were liberal. Proudly selfish!

    • Agree.

      Pinning it in anything else is just being too clever. Not because Queenslanders are simple, just because they weren’t the major issues.

    • DominicMEMBER

      How about, Labor pandered to the virtue-signalling ‘progressive set’ believing them to be much bigger than they really are. Labor have totally forgotten their base — the working classes who, aside from the net recipients of transfer payments don’t care mush for multiculturalism and the touchy feely social sh!te. Added to which, immigrants are not necessarily natural Labor voters — many are conservative, don’t give a f** about gay marriage or social justice issues. They also don’t care for tax and spend policies of the Left. The hard workers among them would actually like to keep as much of what they earn for themselves and their families.

      You should read Clive’s piece on this thread if you can find it.

  9. They are nationalist parties both, focused on Australian people, the Australian economy and Australian politics.” – lol. I am sorry but I am not convinced. Both of these parties are focused on themselves And only care for themselves. ON is pretending to be concerned about white people in order to target a specific demographics in order to get enough votes – nothing more. If there were more Chinamen in Qld and they were neglected by state and fed governments she would have focused on that group as long as she gets elected.
    And United somethingmeaningles Palmer party only cares for Clive. Clive was hoping to become kingmaker by spending $80m on campaigning. He did not do this because he cares about Australia but because he thought he can influence policy that will make him earn another 4000 millions.
    Bottom line is Qld has bit more than the average number of morons.
    But you are right about Labour. They forgot their base.
    Until last night I believed immigration could have given Labour a victory. Fact is Libs won because they promised to continue to plunder the public purse in order to keep RE bubble inflated. Lot of Labour supporters voted for Libs in a hope that Libs will keep value of their houses higher than Monte Carlo. Greed won.

    And until we totally crash nothing else will win again. We became a nation of addicts and will vote anyone who will promise us more cheap shots – credit.

    • @Nicola
      True about housing of course. But Clive? Surely there must be huge benefits in transferring Australia’s wealth to Bulgaria? I’m sure his cousin is paying no taxes at all over there. If it’s good for him it must be good for us….

  10. Jumping jack flash

    My opinion it is house prices.
    Libs are seen as the party to raise house prices. Labor went into the election with policy that cast a shadow over house prices.

    The debt is strong. Negative equity is still seen as the most tragic thing that could happen to a debt slave when in fact it only really hurts banks and investors.

    Houses are still seen as a driver of the economy when in fact mortgage debt is a massive drain. That curious “wealth effect” is just a fantasy. There is no wealth, just nonproductive debt that generates interest.

    Through a fantastic campaign from the banks over the past decades we now have everything backwards. To a bank though it is as it should be.

    • You’re on the right track.

      Labor’sproblem is that they forgot that people hav3, and vote for, self interest. They alienated everyone.
      – the homeowners who wouldn’t vote for declinignbouse prices,
      – the mortgagors who wouldn’t vote for declinignbouse prices
      – the grey army who wouldn’t vote for the end of franking credit Rory’s
      – the working people out there who didn’t want to be on the hook for the costs of Australia being swamped by Graysians

      Who was left to vote for them? A couple of bleeding hearts that wanted to send the Greens a message because they were salty about bob Brown or something.

      Hahaha, morons.

      • “Who was left to vote for them?” – Ermo and I. I had no choice but to vote Labour for the house as SAP did not have a candidate in my area.

      • Exactly, Nico – only people who had nobody else to vote for gave Labor their vote.

        That’s how it works in china, too. Nobody would vote for the guys running there….. but they have to because there is nobody else.

        Silly Bill got confused, he thought Australia was already a province of China, but it is not quite yet. so people could vote for other morons as well.

    • JJF Negative equity is one of the most tragic things that can happen to a mortgagee. You only need to look at other countries to see that (e.g Ireland, some American towns). It affects your ability to change jobs, advance your career, build wealth (can’t refinance for a lower rate and the bank knows it), move area, etc and decreases your risk tolerance for years. It basically means you aren’t adaptable at all and if your circumstance changes like say being unemployed your stuffed. What a way to keep you awake at night. Even worse lowering house prices means your in negative equity and you probably will lose your job too – and many careers don’t take bankrupts.

      What’s worse is many of these recent buyers saved up their 20% deposit at these high prices; know quite a few of them and they do have a strong save and work ethic even if they don’t understand economics. They are good savers yet in this scenario would be poorer than the average young renter living it up.

      • Jumping jack flash

        I disagree. Negative equity for an OO is like having paid too much for a car. You are a bit disappointed, its a big wad of debt but life goes on. You kick yourself for having been fooled. You make the repayments as you would have needed to anyway.

        For a bank it is catastrophic. LVR is the only measure of risk they use so if the loan size is above the value then they’re potentially in trouble from their banks. Interest rates are based on risk. Flow on effects. Ratings. All that jazz.

        For an investor it isn’t as bad as for a bank but it means they’ll either have to keep the non-performing asset or retain debt upon its sale. Plus if banks get nasty they can demand payment, etc

      • JunkyardMEMBER

        Almost as tragic as being locked out of secure housing and trying to raise a family in rentals. Almost no tenant rights, extremely low vacancy rates, unsecured living proximity to your kids school. Being talked down to or just plain ignored at social and family gatherings because you’re not “in the market” or “on the ladder”

      • Rates *will* be cut because banks will have no choice. Ever heard of an offer one cannot refuse?

        Not so long ago, in a galaxy not so far away……

        WBC CEO: Lord Lowe. This is an unexpected pleasure. We are honored by your presence.

        Darth Lowe: You may dispense with the pleasantries, CEO. I am here to put you back on schedule.

        CEO: I assure you, Lord Lowe, my men are writing mortgages as fast they can.

        Darth Lowe: Perhaps I can find new ways to motivate them.

        CEO: I tell you that this nation will be debt-saturated as planned.

        Darth Lowe: The Emperor does not share your optimistic appraisal of the situation.

        CEO: But he asks the impossible. I need more rate cuts.

        Darth Lowe: Then perhaps you can tell him when he arrives.

        CEO: The Emperor’s coming here?

        Darth Lowe: That is correct, CEO, and he is most displeased with your apparent lack of progress.

        CEO: We shall double our efforts.

        Darth Lowe: I hope so, CEO, for your sake. The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_YnqqOjdws

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        @ jumping Jack

        Yeah like paying too much for a car… if your car cost a million dollars.

      • @Junkyard – they should of never let it run up in the first place. There’s lots of losers in all of this. The question now is who picks up the tab and how destabilizing it will be. Playing devil’s advocate and putting myself in a Liberal governments shoes should it be the recent first home buyers who saved, got together a deposit and delayed gratification OR the renters many who were born here, had the same educational opportunities, etc but still never bought due to a number of personal reasons and/or lack of saving “attitude”. Remember it is the party of “aspiration” not “equality”.

        If renters pick up the tab their situation does not change and life goes on; while they don’t own much at least they don’t own “negative”. If house prices fall however our high country debt levels effectively destroy jobs, etc which will affect some renters too and in the long term stop housing supply from growing plus leaving a lot of pain behind. As a government cynically I know which one I would choose.

    • TighterandTighter

      How can we explain house price drops under Libs now?
      Labor let them off on that.
      Useless.
      Your broader points apt

  11. Polls are crap and the problem is the left have over taken the polls to show they are in the lead and election time comes well they lose. When I was in the US in 2016 President election all you heard was the polls say Hillary is going to kill him. I knew something was up because Hillary shows up to events about half packed and Trump events didnt have enough space. The problem is the media is so left wing in the US and Australia. All polls are conducted by left wing nuts who call left wingers and well you know the rest of the results…..

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Exactly : the poll have become an internal echo chamber. The traditional method of phone calling doesn’t work anymore, and instead of finding a better method, the pollster simply adjust the formula to reflect the group concensus.

      The solution is to abandon the old technique and replace it with something that targets mobile phones. The initial set up will be expensive, but the subsequent cost to conduct a weekly poll would be close to zero.

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      I do not regard Hillary as “Left” ezcept in a marginal sense. She’s a corporate stooge who uses identity politics to win power. In the US context, Sanders is closer to the real thing.

      • St Jacques I regard her more as a word that starts with a C. I hate the lady with all regards. Most corrupt politician who has gotten away with so much.

    • Hanno Son of Bomilcar

      hillary WON the popular vote though. the idea that trump proved polling was useless forever is wrong. the polls were mostly right, what they were wrong about was the distribution of votes. the states that allowed trump to get the required votes in the electoral college were on the tiniest of margins, within the margin of error of the polls and were severely underpolled in the first place.

      shorten had always lost the preferred pm polls.

      • The polls were wrong and you need to go learn why the EC was setup. There are many other examples in the US of other race governer, Senate and Congress that polls said where going one way and were completely wrong.

      • Hanno Son of Bomilcar

        the polls were in the margin of error and roughly correctly predicted the popular vote. they were wrong in the handful of states trump won that allowed him to win in the EC, but they were severely under polled in those places and still within the margin of error.

  12. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Shorten’s loss reminds me of Hewson : losing the ‘unloseable’ election. Rightly or wrongly, negative gearing will now be enshrined as an untouchable pillar of Australian politics.

    While losing Queensland was bad, the ALP didn’t gain much seats anywhere else with their policy. That is what really doomed them.

    • yes, Hewson couldn’t shut up either and fatefully went on the Mike Willessee show to explain how GST was applied to everyday items, like a birthday cake.
      Still the GST eventually was seen as a less regressive tax and here we are, so don’t write off changes to neg gearing when it suits

    • An army of negative gearers are going to wish they had never heard of it, and IO to boot. Hahaha

    • Absolutely! Most Australians wouldn’t know how to start up their own mine, so Real Estate is the only way forward. And, as we all know, as the media constantly tells us – house prices will always go up at 3 times the rate of inflation…. The sure path to wealth…

  13. I have been saying for years; There will be no major reform until we have a deep recession. Recession Lite will not get enough of the rent seekers put away. Cannot see another solution the way politics has evolved.

    • Yes I agree Bruce.
      People wont vote or support the “painfull” policy options until they have no other option.
      We may also see the rise of more extreme Left or Right type groups/parties, fracturing the Parliament more and more.

    • Absolutely! Until then, it’ll be the the eroding of the monetary and fiscal bar of soap of everybodywins-ism. No need to rock the boat!

    • Meh they will vote for things that fix the crisis, drastic things but not the reform many here are hoping for. Printing money, deficit spending, tariffs, etc may come about but not things that hurt families such as NG/CGT reform or franking credits. Especially in a depression you want to add money to peoples pockets not take them away.

  14. It is all good then we have 3 more years of Morrison due to some beat up over parental visas.
    No party will take social reformist policies to the electorate again and Labor will probably drift back to the right now.
    All parties will pander to the wealthy > 65s and climate action will be downplayed.
    What a brilliant result. But I’m glad you think Labor didn’t deserve to win.
    And no the result had nothing to do with immigration. Both sides were still committed to the program on this.
    The result was down to the media.
    And their ability to run a 24 hr campaign of over simplification, fear and stupidity.
    And now they get to tell us why we voted for Morrison and how they predicted this all along. What a joke.

  15. St JacquesMEMBER

    Totally agree.Shorten’s ALP was Big Oz with some reforms around the edges but essentially the same disastrous long term FIRE bubble economics as the LNP, but people will sacrifice everything for their house price until, of course the bubble collapses. Palmer’s UAP swung 3.2 % of the primary vote against the ALP. Thank’s Clive with your scare campaign, the LNP now are going to find themselves in a declining country with nobody to blame They’ve won the booby prize. hahahahahahaha

  16. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Do you think the Danish would do this?

    At the Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Fixture yesterday at Sydney Showground, the half time entertainment featured a celebration of new Australian citizens doing a lap of honour with the Minister of Cultural Affairs.

    It was hard for to me clap and applaud, as I know it is just more cheap labour and if these New Australians achieve success it will be more than likely of their cultural behaviours of wage theft and exploitation. (Chatime and 7-Eleven)

    • CanuckDownUnder

      Same here some people around us were pretty enthusiastic I was just cringing.

      Most of those new Australians might end up in low wage jobs but to be fair a few of them could walk right into the Blues’ best 22.

    • I try not to hate on the Individuals themselves. Amongst them are a few that will create jobs, become doctors, scientists etc.. the thing is we should be able to welcome them and embrace them, but the way we have implemented migration policy here makes me resent their numbers and the way it’s lowering our standard of living. But I blame the Goverment for it. They are too complacent on multiculturalism and it working for everyone. It works when we a share the same values… Sadly many of our new migrants don’t share the same values.

  17. johnl77MEMBER

    The difference in Queensland is that Murdoch newspapers have a monopoly. The Courier Mail, which is the most widely read,
    slags Labor incessantly and The Australian is anti Labor. Murdoch also owns most of the giveaway local newspapers and they reinforce his message. A large number of the regional radio stations are now syndicated, so Alan Jones and Ray Hadley shout the anti-labour message throughout the day. These sources are also pro coal and anti-renewables. Many Queenslanders are simply brain washed.

    • I wonder,
      Everytime my Wife came home from the local IGA, recently, she had a Courier Mail, said they were Free.
      I wonder if they are still Free today ?

    • Exactly.
      Which is why Labor need a leader not afraid to attack and discredit the media. Latham would have been perfect but he is too right wing.

  18. I can tell you are in Denmark ( I mean….lol, what an irony) as you cast missives on the election result.

    – Both parties are as pro immigration as each other

    – UAP is not a party, its a vague protest vote to farm votes back to the LNP. Most people don’t understand preferences.

    – ON isn’t much better, look at the demographics of its voters if you don’t believe me

    – We are witnessing a realignment, but its not going the way you think its going.

    – this election is 93 not 98….don’t forget what happened after 93

    – Franking credits and negative gearing, etc, are now untouchable. Forever. Your children will be renting slums of LNP imported Chinese landlords…..

  19. Not sure why MB is celebrating. Those reforms on which they spent countless words and hours penning are dead and buried, done. All that effort was effectively wasted. Long may the bubble live on!

    • Because reality for millions of Australians is less important than journalist ego.

      • As I stated many times before, a bubble must keep growing until it exhausts its full growth potential before an epic bust. That’s what a bubble does, always has done, and will do in future.

        That is a bubble’s destiny and Straya is no different.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        Well said dumpling. The suburb next door, Box Hill (Melbourne) which is sprouting Chinese owned high rises is already 25 % down and if you add in the AUDs slide we’re looking at some hefty losses for many foreign investors. With the mining boom fading, and that kind of news coming out of OZ, I find it really hard to see people rushing here to invest in RE, quite the opposite in fact. Without that investment, the AUD is heading down, foreign \investor losses will be multiplied as a result and the game will undo at the seams, maybe to the sound of a financial crash echoing all about. We’ll see.

    • Because this blog has been moving to right/conservative side for at least a year now, H&H especially.

      I used to think it was because they wanted to, eventually, be bought out by News. This is afterall a common tactic for small Australian net publications that focus on business.

      Now, it seems to be just an attempt to mop up the conspiracist dregs into the Australian version of Zerohedge.

      I access MB mostly via my phone (your mobile platform is disappointing) and without ad blocker the site has been absolutely plastered with UAP advertising. Make that bank boys, feed the chickens.

      • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

        My impression is that they’ve lost faith in the ALP, RBA, ABC and other media through their direct dealings with them.

        Maybe you should save some of that cynicism for your beloved party.

      • This blog is the only piece of Australian anti-immigration media that I am aware of, most people who are opposed to these levels of immigration seem to be right-wing, this shift was inevitable when the Left made immigration an issue that may not be spoken of except to ask for more. All anti-immigration content became right-wing and that opened the door to more right-wing ideas, since few others were reading anyway. I’m sure many right-wingers would like to be welcomed back from exile but there’s no indication that’s going to happen.

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      Labor had some good reforms, but ultimately outweighed in MB’s mind (and my own) by their disastrously bad big Australia / parental visa policy.

      Do I feel joyous at the outcome? Of course not. I chose the lesser of the two evils.

      A different person will say that climate is all important and that only the Greens can be the ‘lesser evil’. I disagree. I think there is still a path to protecting the environment that does not involve destroying:
      – our economy (unrealistic policies)
      – our democracy (open borders claptrap / CCP encroachment)
      – our standard of living (immigration / congestion)

      Labor has a distinct shade of Green craziness to it…

      • In the years ahead you will have a far greater chance of changing immigration policy in the direction you are hoping for than taxation policy. I contend you, HnH and others have just missed a golden opportunity. Hope I’m wrong but, I doubt it.

  20. There was a live interview on ABC News on Saturday morning.
    When asked who she was going to vote for a woman said “Liberal, because of the help that they will give cancer patients”, to which the interviewer replied that that was Bill Shorten’s policy. “Yes, I think he will be better for the people” …. #Facepalm

    • genuine question here , Why people that stupid deserves a better life?

      They got the government they deserve.

  21. Hanno Son of Bomilcar

    australians don’t want lower house prices. repeat after me: australians. dont. want. lower. house. prices. this election was a mandate on household net worth.

      • They don’t trust you, Hanno Son of Bomilcar. They see your future. They know your power will be too strong to control….. You must break through the fog of lies the MB has created around you. Let me help you to know the subtleties of the Force….

  22. Everyone’s throwing in an opinion so here’s mine.

    I think the MB line is not wrong but is overextended and wishful thinking to a degree. Where MB is right is that immigration showed up (and increased towards the end of the campaign) asa a significant search term related to the election.

    I suspect that It’s The Economy Stupid and jobs/ houses were the big motivators up north. One facepalm realisation I had after the election is how much tradie culture is into investment property.

    I reckon that, apart from a vanishingly small union base, Labor have lost the tradie vote all over but especially FNQ.

    • Yes.

      A lot of confusion seems to have grown up around what the commentariat here things “should” happen and what is actually likely to happen.

      This didn’t used to be the case years ago…. it’s been a slow creeping change in attitude and approach of the MBdwellers

      • You’re a clever one Peach. Still pretty sure you’re an astroturfer. The world is bigger than house prices, even in Australia.

        I didn’t argue that tax reform didn’t play a role. Indeed I directly said that it did. But the big shock was QLD and ON/UAP. They are nationalist parties 100 percent irrespective of their ideological mush mash.

        If you wanted to support house prices you a very clear choice in Scomo but his vote fell.

        The massage from QLD IS VERY CLEAR. PUT AUSSIES FIRST.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      Sure Both immigration and the Economy played major rolls in Labors failure but so to the embrace of this Cutural Waring Shyte by the “Intersectional basket weaving academics” (to borrow a dear friends description) who occupy the ranks of the ALPs upper Caste.
      Alan Jones on this morning’s 2GB, along with multiple talk back callers spoke at length about how the Israel Folau fiasco had many practicing and Non Practicing Christians feeling insulted and angry,..but silently ready to vote against Labor in protest against what they perceive, whether rightly or wrongly, as the ALPs contempt for White Christianity and all Social Conservatives.
      This is a big percentage of the Working Class, with an even bigger percentage of the Migrant Working class holding strongly Social Conservative views.
      It is Labors traditional duty to represent all the Working Class including these social conservatives members.
      The parties intelectual embrace of intersectional identity politics has divided the Working class and thus diminished working class Power by spreading their vote over both parties, with both parties betraying and ignoring them.
      On a positive note I believe this can be changed,… that Danish Sheila gives me much hope.

      “under Frederiksen the party has been ruthlessly reshaped: dragged to the left economically – and sharply to the right on immigration”

      “For me, it is becoming increasingly clear that the price of unregulated globalisation, mass immigration and the free movement of labour is paid for by the lower classes,” she said in a recent biography.”

      A movement from with in the ALP could produce a similar “Third way” leader here in Australia.
      Only need a few 10s of thousands concerned citizens would be required to help make it happen.
      What are you going to do for your country?
      https://www.alp.org.au/about/join-labor/

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        The whole Folou saga was a witchhunt, and I suspect most people other than the Loony Lefties were annoyed by it. Most of us have spent the last 2000 years ignoring the “you are going to hell” proclamations that emanate from pulpits, and singling out gay people as being too precious to be able to do the same just got people’s backs up. Where was the outrage for the Atheists? Sacking him went too far – they don’t even sack players who commit sexual assault or beat their wives, but somehow hurting an anonymous group of people’s feelings with a bible quote is a worse crime? I predict a rising swell of Christians suddenly coming out of the woodwork, as they become the “new persecuted”. Just this weekend I was talking to a friend about how we were glad that religion has never played a role in NZ politics the way it does in the US, and to a much lesser extent, Australia. Then yesterday we got this news! https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/112834386/simon-bridges-confirms-hes-talked-with-mp-about-a-breakaway-christian-party
        Then it will be up to Facebook to shut down Christian voices in the way they have shut down Conservative voices and people who like to eat meat*.
        (*https://reclaimthenet.org/facebook-shuts-down-banting-7-day-meal-plans-groups/)

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        “What are you going to do for your country?”

        Sadly our country no longer exists Ermo – just a multicultural collective inhabiting the economic zone formally known as Australia, where each and every ethnic and cultural clique vote according to their own interests.

        So while NG reform and Franking credit reform, might have been in the interests of the economic zone formally known as Australia, the majority cultural clique, “white Australia” have realised that they’ll be paying more taxes and be being made poorer, not for their benefit or the benefit of their kids, but simply to accommodate more people and help project other shitty values pertaining to other people’s culture forward into the future.

        They don’t want that, and their kids, whose own welfare and life outcomes which will now overwhelmingly be dependent on their families inherited wealth, give the society they built no longer works for their interests, also don’t want that.

        The future for Multicultural Australia is Multicultural voting, and the inevitable outcome of identity politics, is that people eventually start identifying and voting accordingly ie vote for your clan.

        Suck it up Smiturds and Denises – this is the future you have been calling for.

      • You know EP I think you are underestimating how damaging this result is and overplaying the identity politics aspect.
        This was basically the first time the ALP in some regards returned to class politics since Calwell.
        Yes they should have focused more on wages and should have framed it more as rich v everyone else rather than old v young but now they will return back to the centre right of aspirationalism neoliberal light with Bowen, Plibersek or Wong as leader.
        This is a huge disaster and only caused by 2 things:
        1) the media
        2) Shorten and teams inability to attack the media

        If some ABC clown ask you about a retiree or housing tax just say this:
        “We don’t have a retiree or housing tax, grow a brain and do your research”.

        This is the one – literally the one thing they should learn from Hawke and Keating – those two never suffered the media they attacked journalists and cut through their rubbish and spoke straight to the people.

      • Labor ran with more handouts, more taxes, more people as though that was somehow going to touch the problem? We have no industry or processing left, our energy costs are ridiculous despite the fact we do nothing but export energy, and everyone that doesn’t live in a leafy inner enclave is basically f..d by monetary policy.

  23. kiwikarynMEMBER

    I think the answer is rather simple. While things like climate change and gay rights are all things we think we should care about, and we do in a small way, they are just not enough to sacrifice our lives to. When you are worried about personally owing the bank tens of thousands of dollars in negative equity if you want to sell your house, or don’t know where you are going to get the extra $1000 a month you have to find to pay the mortgage on that cashflow negative investment property that you were sucked into buying when everything was good and “property prices only ever go up”, and you have to figure out how you are going to be able to afford private school for the kids because no-one at the local school speaks English any more, and the job you tried to get to help with all of the above turned out to pay even less than the one you’ve got thanks to competition from those on work visas …. well, plastic straw bans and gender neutral bathrooms just don’t seem like such a big deal to be worth voting for.

  24. As a Warringah resident I just want to know where they are going to build our new monorail.

  25. Great article MB. Agree Aust dodged a bullet despite ALP reforms to negative gearing. Aust needs serious economic adjustment that will redirect investment to productive assets.
    Socialism at its simplest is morally questionable and literally theft by Govt. Enforced distribution penalizes peoples personal efforts and ingenuity, and perversely takes from their own leanings to be generous to others.
    The Govt is a bad bad moral agent. It is best placed to administer and enforce laws, infrastructure and defence. The worse thing about minority govts is how many more laws they do pass in order to stay relevant.
    Socialism’s deep antipathy towards power is monomanical and has inflicted gross genocide, the gulag and the guillotine on people.
    Power is a reality to manage and however much it is reconstituted and reimagined it remains and will always be exercised for good or ill. “The poor will always be with you”. Since Govt is a bad moral agent – is there any legit moral authority and who cares? There had better be. History is proof greatest reason alone will send a person crazy as it did Nietzsche and Sartre’s “No exit”!

    • Dennydavidson01

      “Aust needs serious economic adjustment that will redirect investment to productive assets”

      To think this will happen under the LNP is fantasy as well though. They have demonstrated over and over again that they have zero interest in doing this.

  26. Hanno Son of Bomilcar

    imagine living in a place with heaps of unemployment then being gaslit by a bunch of homos in cities who take 5 international vacations a year about how youre personally responsible for killing the environment and a reef they never even visit anyway bc u support a coal mine thatll provide a couple of jobs where you live

    its no surprise QLD gave the 3:16 stone cold f-k u to the rest of australia lmao

  27. Having spent many years living in FNQ this is not a surprise. The regions do all the work, carry the industry, the tourism, the mining, the agriculture, yet they are being crushed by monetary/fiscal policy and that gifts all wealth to the rent seekers from the city.

    Energy Costs: We export billions of tonnes of energy (to be burned somewhere else in the world), but we aren’t allowed to use it ourselves. We need to export less and use more ourselves.
    Agriculture: There are millions of acres of prime agriculture land for sale, but locals can’t afford to buy it. (So we end up with clearing on marginal land that is blocked and angers).
    Industry. You cannot have an industry with a high dollar and high energy costs.
    Agricultural land/business ownership. All our businesses are foreign owned. This gives them a 30% advantage immediately because they can transfer price their profits/tax away. This also gives the commodities access to markets that other ag businesses do not.
    Production/processing. Nearly all our minerals and ag commodities are processed overseas, in jurisdictions that subsidise the processing either directly or by having zero environmental/labor standards.

    etc etc. The fake left was routed, if they can be the real left they might have a chance.

  28. TighterandTighter

    I wonder if deep down Labor is happy because if SHTF now, Labor will be able to blame Libs.

    The worst thing about this election, honestly, is I only put $5 down on LNP at 4s a few weeks ago and not 500. Sadface.

    • Deep down, labor has no idea wtf just happened, and nor will they ever. Already the Qld Labor Premier is out promising job-n-growf. Meanwhile, energy costs are ridiculous, land costs are ridiculous, immigration wage suppression is ridiculous, white elephant city boondoggles are ridiculous, etc etc.

  29. PolarBearMEMBER

    HnH, what happened to your idea that the Coalition would be wiped out and spend years in the wilderness by a surge in support for ON? It seems that the support for ON has had the opposite effect in this election?

  30. User_SydMEMBER

    Yea not sure about ‘Bravo Quexit!’ That is a bit confusing – you wanted Labor to lose?
    Labor lost because of QLD and i would say MB aligned more with Labor’s policies (around NG and CGT), than the LIbs – who had no policy.
    Had Albo or Plibersek run would the result have been any different? Hard to say. I am glad that Shorten has stepped down.

  31. mikef179MEMBER

    Labour got it wrong. It wasn’t the rich versus poor divide. It was the old (over 40’s) versus young (under 40’s) divide. But if they had they took the young side they would have lost anyway. Australia eats their young. And anyone who tries to point out that it should be otherwise gets ignored at best.

  32. karlflowersMEMBER

    Another factor not mentioned was the impact of falling house prices on voter economic insecurity. A 15% fall in house prices, with average equity of perhaps 45% translates to the largest fall in Australian’s wealth in decades. This environment is fertile ground for LNP and property industry scare campaigns about impacts of the ALP reducing negative gearing. No coincidence that larger falls in ALP vote in outer suburbs where negative and low equity in recently bought houses is most common. Scott Morrison had the background to understand this better than other political figures. In retrospect and with the benefit of hindsight, the ALP policy is far more saleable when house prices are booming and affordability collapsing than now and harder heads in the ALP should have understood this.

  33. “Nowhere have a I seen what is the key reason. It’s the same reason that the LNP changed leaders in the first place, which has also been buried by a wowserish press … Queensland has had enough of globalisation, mass immigration in particular, and wants out of both.”

    Wow, some bloke in his home office in suburban Melbourne telling Queenslanders what they think and why they voted the way they did. I’ll tell you what all the Qlders I know hate most: it is being told by southerners how to think and vote. Also, in the recent conversations I’ve had with family members from regional and rual Qld the topic of mass immigration was simply not a biggy. I think this is a classic example of a Melbourne commentator identifying a Melbourne problem and projecting it onto a totally different part of Australia.

    • +1 bigly. I’m always struck by those charts that MB posts from time to time showing that VIC and NSW run massive deficits…ie the wealth is produced somewhere else in the country and sucked into these hellholes. So when the snobs in these places also try to tell you how to live, it must be just a little bit irritating.

    • Agree, not a single one of my regional mates mentioned immigration – that’s a city thing. It’s ‘jobs and Jesis’. Most don’t understand why the regions are so poor, they just know they are and the city folk that want to tell them what to do are not.

  34. Population/immigration denialism on the left is just as crazy as climate denialism on the right. It’s human nature to deny the existence of big problems that are too hard to solve. I was talking to an inner city lefty at an election party on Sunday. His position was that we can’t have too many people in this country, we just need to densify our urban environment. Bigger cities are better cities according to him. I said but surely growth has to stop sometime. ‘Nope’ he said, ‘Not until long after I’m dead and buried’. The level of denial was astonishing. Of course he lives in a nice suburban house with a yard and would never live in an apartment himself.

  35. This is all rubbish. MB was adamant how it would be an easy ALP win, how smart MB was for picking the policies and the electoral mood years ago. Just go read any MB article in the week leading up to the election.

    Now you are trying on some major revisionist spin to make out that you are still the smartest guys in the room “Oh hey, look over here!!”

    • Denis413MEMBER

      Agree – but too be fair, they did say they could not vote for labor due to its parent visa scheme.

    • PolarBearMEMBER

      Yeah this article does have a “revisionist” feel to it. I’ve seen it before on MB with political changes. I sympathise with the need to push worthy causes like ‘reduce immigration’ but I don’t think its the reason for “Quexit”. The comments section is much closer to the mark – comments likes Clive’s above. And the comments about a “silent” majority who are freaked out about falling house prices, negative equity and their mortages.

    • It’s across the board in journalist land.
      Do they even stop to consider whether they are the best people to be doing an autopsy on the federal election after their dramatic failure to predict the result or just report the policies accurately without fear and stupidity?

      No goes without saying. These guys are best placed. Best judgement in the world, no bias, total self awareness, the best of the best, know everything about everything, can predict any event (after it’s happened) can summarise every complex issue. Can turn tax reform into high drama theatre and links with China into conspiracy all for the benefit of their readers and never their own ego. Yep.

      On Anzac day we were told this:
      “So, today, on ANZAC Day, with an election looming and Labor very likely to win, it’s time we ask the really hard question of what that will mean to this quiet war”.

  36. Lol at the entire comments section being scrubbed of mark [email protected]

    This is why no one wants to subscribe

    Additionally you and every other media outlet wants to censor comment that they consider “racist” or “sexist”
    Now realise that this type of moral authoritarianism is a large part of why labor lost and why the media is becoming more and more irrelevant

    Do you want to change the error your ways?

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      I don’t like it either Coming.
      They just deleted a pretty innocuous post of Skips in Macro Afternoon.
      I know it’s Dave and Leiths Gig and they have the right to censor and ban who ever they like but it really disapoints me when they do.

      • I agree up to a point. My personal facebook page receives posts from rabid Trump supporters through to some acquaintances that were on the Adani convoy. I do like to sample a variety of viewpoints, including ones I dislike (yes even Skip). On the the other hand, I couldn’t cope if it turned into something like the zerohedge comments area. I’ve never understood how people that think they are some sort of financial analyst type can express such views so adamantly. I’m curious what the trading success rate would be in that group.

  37. mikef179MEMBER

    Labour made people think that they would lose even more money on their houses than they currently had. Liberal made them think it was just a temporary downturn. Game Set Match Libs.

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      That pretty much sums it up. And probably, at least for a while, the LNP can stop the fall. but I don’t think it will lead to a new, full on boom, but who really knows, though I doubt it very much..

  38. It’s likely that this election has:
    1) Harpooned any chance of negative gearing reform until there is an epic collapse in property prices(whenever that will be).
    2) Smashed any chances of reform to incredibly generous taxation concessions for wealthy self funded retirees for god knows how long.
    3) Dissuaded any future politician from openly pursuing a detailed progressive reform agenda and entrenched a campaign template of zero substance, banal nationalism and meaningless drivel.
    4) Told the entire world that if you’re a billionaire with enough bucks to spend, and particularly in key states, you can change the course of an election in this country.

    I guess I should be grateful we have feudal lords like Clive to rescue us from the CCP and the flood of immigrants those pesky globalist, “left-wing” population fundamentalists want to bring in.
    Sorry bud but, it will be far easier for future governments to change immigration settings than taxation law, as the former doesn’t require parliament to pass the changes. Sigh!