Weekend Links 2-3 February, 2019

Jitterbugs, 1945, Weaver Hawkins, Art Gallery of NSW

 

Markets Macro & Investing

 

Asia

 

Americas

 

Europe

 

Terra Specufestorus

 

…and furthermore…

 

Gunnamatta

General all round punter

Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

  1. Here is a moron trap.

    Not the house. Ignore the house. It’s all about the advertised “Friendly Auction System”. To help buyers, you see. Buyers!

    https://m.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-lyons-130287046

    Let’s explore.

    “To help buyers, we offer the following as part of our Friendly Auction System:
    • Written & verbal buyer price guides updated throughout the campaign
    • A digital brochure with everything you need to consider a purchase inc full contract
    • We can refer a solicitor who can review the contract prior to auction, for FREE
    • A FREE cooling off (section 17 certificate) if you want to submit a pre-auction offer
    • 5% deposit approved, payable via BPAY (no lining up for bank cheques)
    • Help negotiating terms such as settlement dates or exchange deposits
    • Personalised bidding strategy meeting prior to auction
    • Free valuations to help you establish your current equity.”

    I do like how they give you a free lawyer to tell you their contract is all good. And a free cooling off period (which you are entitled to anyway in the ACT in a non auction sale).

    But it’s the * personalised bidding strategy * which I love the best!

    “Tell is how much money you have. Remember you also told us about your equity. Ok, now bid ALL OF IT RIGHT AT THE START”.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Us MB’ers cheering the property crash need to have in mind the terrible collateral damage consequences. Divorce and suicide rates went through the roof in the last ones. No one is unaffected especially children suddenly without a natural parent at home. Even people seemingly unaffected had their unknown personality/mental precondition triggered. Hope this situation doesn’t exacerbate the man trust issues displayed by an MBer the other day and he/she sails through OK.

      • The Penske FileMEMBER

        Agree. Wives walked away from two developers that I came across last year that went bunk and lost the lot. No home, no site and out on their butts.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        TPF, yes noticed that when the wives left, they put themselves in a worse situation.

      • boom
        Good warning re the chaos that goes with this. However remember the damage is caused, not by the crash, but the BS economic and social narrative that preceded it and that is ongoing. All we can do is, at a personal level, try to help those who need a hand.
        That said, I guess you know my long held views as to the complete economic and social disaster that is coming down the pipe.

      • @ Boom , [email protected] em I say. They couldn’t give a stuff about renters on the way up rubbing it in our faces.
        The renters have had a [email protected] time as well , depression and divorce among others, if you didn’t get in sitting there working just as hard as the bloke who bought but being shafted year over year. Hey Boom , ever seen the look on a home owners face when you say you rent? It’s a look of disgust and instantly you are treated different. So i say these pr1cks all get what they deserve. 👍

      • I don’t want anyone to suffer, but on the way up my own mental health suffered. Hearing from every expert telling me I’m wrong. Everyone saying just buy buy buy. It makes you question your own sanity.

        No matter how hard you worked, prices just kept going up. You’d look further out each time and then be priced out of that market before you knew it. Looking at crappier places along the way.

        Think of the social harm done by high house prices, delayed family formation, people not having kids till too late, the stress of obscene mortgages etc.. the damage is already done as stated. Now to undo it, there will be even more pain.

        I truly believe Ireland was better post crash than before. The problem is they are heading back to pre-crash conditions again. Unaffordable rents, crappy mouldy apartments etc.. a good healthy housing market is stable in prices and rents and everyone had access to good quality accommodation like Germany seems to have had for 30+ years.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        T, Flawse, Gavin..
        All good points that I wasn’t in a position to evaluate. Actually this was instigated by an MB’er a couple of days ago insinuating my questionable faithfulness to the missus and what he/she doesn’t realize is that most married men get propositioned but very few carry out.
        Case in point, (yet another story)
        I’ve had a hard time with the missus since our misfortune triggered something that happened in her childhood but that didn’t make me play up, I was in it for the long haul, sowed my wild oats before marriage.
        One episode when president of ANBB contest in resort in Queensland, air steward pulled me aside but told her I was in a hurry.
        Queensland President asked if I could share a room, At beginning of night the competitor stripped off and asked me to rub oil on her back. Told her I was a married man and no wouldn’t do it. Analyzing this no one would have known ecxept the most important participant (me).

      • Lmmao …

        Hudson has a nice little post over at NC that makes the whole RE drama look like the childhood fear of the monster under the bed…. I mean global transition away from hegemonic dominance of the past and the ideologues that fosit it on everyone else in the name of doublespeak ….

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Early nineties during drama, leasing equipment creditor threatened the wife by saying that they would take her kids off her. The bank sold my house at auction which was heckled by neighbors so another unsavory neighbor could buy it half price. That era was filled with such stories. eg Got taken to court by Sid Fischer, alone and against his legal team, I won.

      • @Gavin
        “I don’t want anyone to suffer, but on the way up my own mental health suffered. Hearing from every expert telling me I’m wrong. Everyone saying just buy buy buy. It makes you question your own sanity.”

        +1000

        This hasn’t been easy, in fact, it’s been a war of attrition on mental health the whole way. It still hasn’t ended, yet there are some glimmers of positivity from this blog.
        I feel like the general consensus has been “get onboard now, or miss out forever”, which drives against every sensible bone in my body.
        Boomer is correct, if it becomes catastrophic it’s going to do a generation of social harm, but bearing expedited intensity in a far shorter period of time. It’s very unfortunate if it comes to be, but I can’t help but hearing the words, “Wow, this crack cocaine is really moreish!” whenever I think about it.

      • @BE the one I remember was the dot com bust of 2000, and as a young engineer I saw loads of my colleagues divorce, and the family fallout was huge. It was mstly the wives bailing as the salaries in s/w eng dropped and there were plenty of lay offs to go with it. The number of foreclosures was huge as well and that went on for years. One of those guys died just before christmas in his late 40’s and after his wife left he was never the same??

        @Gavin I’m with you on the mental stress and to a person it’s what most young people are feeling. The pollies/bankers/developers/RE agents sicken me. I’m pretty sure these people won’t give up the power and money to help the situation. Just watch them devastate more lives as they swoop in and buy up distressed properties. I’m void of faith in the morality of these predators.

        PS A bit of intel from my tradie mates..they are saying the estate housing construction in the outer Melb burbs has come to a standstill.

      • My “career” after uni started at the year of Keatings’ “recession we had to have”.

        My whole working life since then has been priced out by the property bubble since i save and never borrow (except once early on when i borrowed 5k from a bank and paid back early).

        Working in melbourne ruled out cheap regional houses.

        I wasn’t the family/kiddy type, so i never felt compelled to enter the market.

        Atleast now i could buy a house outright locally if the prices retreat to sane levels.

      • Boomer,

        Lady I ride with is on the board of Foodbank. Was chatting to her this morning about a local state high school in a well off area that runs a breakfast program, expressing my surprise that this school would need one. Her comment was that this was happening across the board with what would be called middle class families only a few pays away from severe financial stress, barely able to put food on the table.

        Trouble is, unless the housing cost issue isn’t rectified the problem will gone on for decades.

      • Lol … housing cost is the last of anyone’s worries when wages as a share of productivity front run the whole thing… chortle RE going down only means C-corps and Business can argue against any increased share ….

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Dennis, 1993, sheriffs came with locksmith, kicked out onto street 2 days before Christmas kids in tow and we found a derelict house to live in. As per your comment well to do middle class area (Manly CBD) we also had to go to Vinnies for food.

        rj2 Met Keating at Palm Beach decades ago He was going over the slipway between his rich mates places(Allan David)

      • The coming crash (and any) are about as inevitable as a supernovae. May as well enjoy the beauty while it’s on. Silver linings and all that. Plus if some bankers/dodgy financiers go to jail, that’ll be real enjoyable (and totally necessary if they whole want to avoid the 99%/yellow vest business here).

        Also, if the bubble hadn’t have been blown in the first place, these developers might just have been worker plebs like many others, not attracting the blood sucking gold-digger type human, that you come across when you’ve got cash (and show it off).

    • Back when I was growing up there Arrow2, Lyons was shit suburb. Worth about $400k. At 900k, that’s how far we’ve come.

      And yes, the ‘friendly auction system’ is difficult to believe that is actually a business tactic…

      • A2,

        There’s a goddamn bubble EVERYWHERE in this country. Compare regional areas here compared to the US. At a mine site a few yrs back and the guys were talking about new homes and block for 500k in Dumbleyung!

    • Does going to Auction make any sense for the seller in a downward trending market?
      I had a friend ask me just this question the other day.The house is lower North Shore, probably an immediate knock down (certainly would have been a year ago), the agents are suggesting a blitz sales strategy followed by an Auction at the end of February.
      I can understand how Auctions are a good idea in a market that is trending higher because they help everyone establish where the market is at this week in what is a very volatile pricing environment. An Auction in this environment is definitely advantageous to the seller, but does the same logic apply in a down market?
      IMHO no, In a down market auctions are a crazy approach for anything but a distressed sale and in this case the buyer definitely has the upper hand.
      what do other MBers think?
      will potential buyers still outbid each other at silly levels to win their dream home?
      Or will they stick with low-ball bids and wait till next week intent on bidding $10K less?

      • “a blitz sales strategy”

        That’s where the seller spends a whole lot of money advertising the RE business for them???

      • Yep Flawse that’s right saturation advertising on all the platforms for One month.
        (I saw the RE proposal and the costs were just over $15K )
        What’s not clear is what happens if/when the house fails to sell presumably they’ll wait a while and re-auction or do you list it for Private sale at a price that everyone scoffs at knowing it got pasted in say $200K below the minimum indicative price. Will it remain listed on Domain and Realestate.com?. probably not because the proposal doesn’t suggest any residual listing after the Auction.
        So what’s the additional cost for a normal 3 month listing, probably another $3K.

      • Auctions are the best way to get the second highest price. 😁

        Works in a booming market as people get emotionally involved and overbid. In a declining market it shows no other serious parties.

      • Yeah I think what Gavin is saying is correct.
        A failed or Withdrawn Auction shows potential buyers that they’re the only interested party so they shouldn’t get faked out by agents talk about “other offers”, they should stick with their low ball offer because it’s the only offer on the table..
        I guess Logically a failed Auction in a down market therefore needs to be withdrawn for at least 6 months.
        That’s a good reason to not go to auction, holding an expensive auction to advertise nothing but market weakness is hardly in a vendors interest. I hadn’t really thought about it that way.

      • Fisho – yes, but it is in the AGENT’S interest as it help beat down the vendor and close the sale. Agents love it.

      • What I found bloody amazing in that was their wanting you to talk to them about your bidding strategy! lololol, yeah, tell the RE Agent acting on behalf of the seller how you’re going to bid! FMD.

    • Thought I’d add some comments on Canberra’s current property market and auctions in general.
      Firstly, I updated last week’s Ray White auction result shenanigans and 15 sold from 39 auctions for a 38% clearance rate. Corelogic is currently reporting 82% clearance rate from 17 auctions. A 38% clearance rate is not a sign of a rising market, nor is the obvious desperate attempt to hide the current state of the market. So all Canberrans should rest easy that the 0.2% rise in median prices this week is a furphy and not reflective of what is happening. TBH, such small rises and falls across a month mean very little when you think about sales numbers and prices, and how sensitive and accurate any such median price measure is going to be. The trend in recent time is more telling. If the current state of play remains, it’s all but certain that Canberra will be recording negative numbers in the months to come, like everywhere else.
      That said, there does look to be some better demand for houses priced sub-median to just above median price. At the top end it is very quiet and many properties are discounting to even get a sniff of interest. I think others have commented that because borrowing is constrained there could be a slide down the property ladder for prospective buyers that is leading to extra demand at certain price points, and evaporation of buyers at higher price points because banks aren’t lending as much anymore. Makes you realise how many were borrowing one million plus to buy a home!

      On the Lyons auction. In the past Lyons was a suburb you wouldn’t touch I think mainly due to having a bad name with public housing and crime. It’s definitely improved as it is quite a good central location. Canberra agents love an auction. I think the market could be in freefall and they’d still be holding auctions. Often times it’s more about the promotional aspect in chatting to the public and picking up more listings rather than actually achieving a higher price. In the current market, an auction is unlikely to be the best approach for a seller unless you have a property that you know will have lots of interest.

    • Thought I’d add some comments on Canberra’s current property market and auctions in general.
      Firstly, I updated last week’s Ray White auction result shenanigans and 15 sold from 39 auctions for a 38% clearance rate. Corelogic is currently reporting 82% clearance rate from 17 auctions. A 38% clearance rate is not a sign of a rising market, nor is the obvious desperate attempt to hide the current state of the market. So all Canberrans should rest easy that the 0.2% rise in median prices this week is a furphy and not reflective of what is happening. TBH, such small rises and falls across a month mean very little when you think about sales numbers and prices, and how sensitive and accurate any such median price measure is going to be. The trend in recent time is more telling. If the current state of play remains, it’s all but certain that Canberra will be recording negative numbers in the months to come, like everywhere else.
      That said, there does look to be some better demand for houses priced sub-median to just above median price. At the top end it is very quiet and many properties are discounting to even get a sniff of interest. I think others have commented that because borrowing is constrained there could be a slide down the property ladder for prospective buyers that is leading to extra demand at certain price points, and evaporation of buyers at higher price points because banks aren’t lending as much anymore. Makes you realise how many were borrowing one million plus to buy a home!

      On the Lyons auction. In the past Lyons was a suburb you wouldn’t touch I think mainly due to having a bad name with public housing and crime. It’s definitely improved as it is quite a good central location. Canberra agents love an auction. I think the market could be in freefall and they’d still be holding auctions. Often times it’s more about the promotional aspect in chatting to the public and picking up more listings rather than actually achieving a higher price. In the current market, an auction is unlikely to be the best approach for a seller unless you have a property that you know will have lots of interest.

      • Thanks CA. I agree with everything you’ve posted. Was chatting to an agent yesterday and she said the market is doing ok up to about a million dollars because people can still get loans for that. Above that is very soft indeed, half of 2600 and 2603 (houses) seems to be on the market and nothing much is shifting. I said I reckoned the top was 6-12 months ago and she seemed to agree (not that an agent would ever say so outright).

        Lyons – agree. A lot of the Lyons houses on allhomes have those ugly old fashioned security grilles on all the windows which is a dead giveaway re crime levels in the past and possibly still. A few nice pockets up high on Oakey Ridge though.

        Are you going to that Finniss Cr auction? I was hoping to but sick child so can’t get away…

      • I suggest there is one aspect of the Canberra market that is different from past cycles: the surge in the percentage of contractors working in government agencies. A senior manager told me that in their smallish government agency they have more contractors than tenured public servants. In any downturn or tightening in the government sector the contractors are likely the first to be let go as it is easier quicker and cheaper to make a contractor redundant than it is a public servant. I think the Department of Home Affairs let go a couple hundred IT contractors a while back to cover for a spending blow-out. Just as Qantas let go 41 aircraft engineering contractors just last week from Canberra Airport with no redundancy packages all these government contractors will start making their mortgage payments from what savings they have straight away.

      • There have been a couple of Departments quietly reducing contractor numbers. One major one is trying for $20-40M savings, and there’s been a wave of contractors let go without any press comments. What renewals there are have been for 6 not 12 months. DHS has been in the news for outsourcing some frontline jobs of permanents too. Canberra doesn’t have that same ‘secure’ feeling. I’ve also seen a number of high-rise developments accelerate to try and get sold before it’s too late. Personally I think it’s too late already.

  2. O Haroldus, Haroldus wherefore art thou?
    Deny thy left handed mouse and refuse thy member
    Or, if thou wilt not, be but sworn my MB commentator
    And I’ll no longer be a bitter looser renter.

    • Poetry on MB? Ok….

      O, in blazing rage, should I pluck from mine brow these globes
      That expose a failing soul to the anguish of a Canberra House price
      Or steady my hand , and looking outward, seek most desperate sanction
      The Agent, mine Bodkin, its edge cold as ice?

      Canberra house prices are starting to make me feel rather cross.

      • Just my experience over many decades – NOT a prediction. Labor governments have always been good for Canberra house prices. (‘good’ used in the traditional sense of going up)

    • ffs, it’s spelled “loser”.

      Looser is the opposite of tighter. You’ve been spelling it wrong on here for weeks.

      • Yep Donny – ‘looser’ pisses me off. Another sign of our slavish surrender to everything from anywhere but Australia. Total cringe mentality. We just take on whatever stupid BS is going.

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        All renters, male or female, are a bit “Looser” after their encounters with landloards like our Reusa.

      • There was a Michael Leunig cartoon years ago of a guy getting a tattoo on his arm that said “Born looser”, the tattooist saying “Jeez, sorry mate, I spelled “loser” wrong”,

    • doc, that is why I desisted from the ironic looser.

      I am vein enough to keep pride in my spelling and pronunciation.

      (unless I am seriously gooooone)

  3. That image of Hayne and Frydenberg is getting such a run that someone should make a shirt out of it. A thug life meme where Hayne gets a cap and a blunt would also work.

      • Agreed. They cannot let this mob win, or the strategy will be repeated elsewhere. Not just the French elilte in play here.

        Here is one of the comments, which gives a flavor of what they are about and how they do things:

        CALL FOR THE FIRST “ASSEMBLY OF THE ASSEMBLIES” OF THE YELLOW VESTS

        We, the Yellow Vests of roundabouts, car parks, squares, assemblies and demonstrations, have gathered this 26 and 27 January 2019 in an ‘assembly of the assemblies’, uniting a hundred delegations, responding to the Call Of The Yellow Vests of Commercy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GB1-Sg4jt7Y&t=14s).

        Since 17 November, from the smallest village, from the rural world to the largest city, we have risen up against this deeply violent, unjust and unbearable society. We won’t let it happen again! We revolt against high cost of living, insecurity and poverty. We want our loved ones, our families and our children to live in dignity. 26 billionaires own as much as half of humanity. That is unacceptable. Let us share the wealth, and not poverty! Let us put an end to social inequality! We demand the immediate increase in salaries, welfare benefits, allowances and pensions, and the unconditional right to housing and health, education, free public services, for all

        It is for all these rights that we occupy roundabouts every day, that we organise actions and demonstrations, and that we debate everywhere. With our yellow vests, we are taking the floor, we who never have it.

        And what is the government’s response? Repression, contempt, denigration; deaths and thousands of wounded, the massive use of firearms that mutilate, blind, injure and traumatise. More than 1,000 people have been arbitrarily sentenced and imprisoned. And now the new so-called “anti-hooligan” law aims simply to prevent us from demonstrating. We condemn all violence against demonstrators, whether it comes from the forces of law and order or from violent groups. None of this will stop us! Protesting is a fundamental right. End the impunity of the forces of law and order. Declare an amnesty for all victims of repression!

        And what a dirty trick this great national debate is, which is in fact a government public relations campaign, which exploitsour will to debate and decide! We practice true democracy in our assemblies and on our roundabouts, not on the TV or at the pseudo- round tables organised by Macron.

        After insulting us and treating us to less than nothing, he is now presenting us as a Fascist and xenophobic hate mob. But we are quite the opposite: neither racist, nor sexist, nor homophobic, we are proud to be together, with our differences, to build a supportive society.

        We are strong in the diversity of our discussions; at this very moment hundreds of assemblies are elaborating and proposing their own demands. They concern real democracy, social and fiscal justice, working conditions, environmental and climate justice, and the end of discrimination. Among the most debated strategic demands and proposals, we find: the eradication of poverty in all its forms, the transformation of institutions (referenda, end of the privileges of elected officials…), ecological transition (fuel poverty, industrial pollution…), equality and the inclusion of all people regardless of their nationality (the disabled, equality between men and women, an end to the abandonment of working-class neighbourhoods, the rural world and the overseas territories)…).

        We, Yellow Vests, invite everyone, according to his means and capacities, to join us. We call for laws to be respected and executed (12 against police violence in police stations, laws 13, 14…), the continuation of the occupation of roundabouts and the blockade of the economy, a massive strike and repeating from 5 February. We call for the formation of committees in the workplace, in educational institutions, and everywhere else, so that this strike can be built from the bottom up by the strikers themselves. Let’s get matters in hand! Don’t be alone, join us!

        Let us organise ourselves democratically, autonomously and independently! This assembly of assemblies is an important step that allows us to discuss our demands and our means of action. Let us unite to transform society!

        We propose that all Yellow Vests circulate this call. If, as a group, you agree, send your signature to Commercy ([email protected]). Do not hesitate to discuss and formulate proposals for the next “Assembly of the Assemblies”, which we are already preparing.

        Macron must resign! Long live the power of the people, for the people and by the people!

        Call proposed by the Assembly of the Assemblies of Commercy.

        It will then be proposed for adoption by each of the local assemblies.
        (Translated from French by Prof. William Mallinson)

    • “Deep France is in revolt against globalisation and therefore against Paris and the French state. But it is something else that really terrifies and disgusts Parisians of all political persuasions, left and right, concerning France Profonde. France Profonde is also a revolt in the name of something positive, a vision of France as a place of equality, a place of valued parts, not one single globalised whole no matter how pure.
      What’s more, Paris knows that”

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Flawse musta sent this letter in.

      “The French are modeling, for the world to see, a form of resistance that is very hard to deal with short of very serious repression. The Gilets Jaunes have figured out that the cities are not the sui generis, independent economic powerhouses they think themselves to be. They are, first and foremost concentrated focal points for mass consumption of all of the flows going into them from the much-derided hinterlands. Their vaunted GDP numbers predominantly reflect the fact that they are little more than concentrated centers of mass consumption.”

      • Having recently been dubbed an extremist by Flaws, I am all for the yellow vest cause.
        Hope it spreads to Australia.

      • Pretty funny when you consider most of say Australia’s rural product is exported to the highest bidder [exporting water and soil nutrients] for a quick buck and import cheap questionable product from overseas to feed its citizens.

        Not to mention the Murry example, but then again, historically youth and others have always moved away from rural areas because of jobs. My wife’s father who was a generational grassier and sometimes farmer punched out during the 80s due to persistent drought and moved to Brisbane. Seems the wealth effect for supplying WWII foodstuffs due to demand and in some cases POW labour had a short shelf life, not to mention the recent off loading of property to the energy sector.

        In Frances case it just another fine example of austerity post GFC manifesting itself socially under neoliberal administration, same goes for the U.K., but yeah the unwashed pin it on cities …. chortle …

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Just people who don’t know how to succeed in life and want to steal other people’s success. Thankfully this won’t happen in Australia because similar losers are too weak and scared to ever protest so they just whinge on blogs about how “woe is me” and how they “really want to steal other people’s success via a UBI”. LOLOLOL.

      • reus, “Thankfully this won’t happen in Australia because similar losers are too weak and scared to ever protest so they just whinge on blogs about how “woe is me” and how they “really want to steal other people’s success via a UBI”. LOLOLOL.”

        On the money, Australians love talking it up about pitchforks etc, but we don’t have the balls of the Europeans and our police will do what theirs won’t.

    • Love them or hate them Harry, they know how to keep hold of all they’ve stolen over the generations. These two are just a repeat of all the past royal children, particularly marrying commoners, and then we all watch and focus on the loving couple and their sprogs while the looting continues.

    • and it’s only going to get worse …….. following same pattern as parts of the US – hood rats and progeny do what they like wherever and whenever and there are no consequences. Trashing malls or individual businesses with impunity. All helped by the systematic removal of discipline in the public school system …..

      Then the ‘cracker’ element watches, and say why not us to. Rest, as they say, is history …… Moomba is going to continue to deteriorate as the denials and obfuscation continue and the crimes (actual even if not officially reported) get worse each year ……… welcome to the world of PC/SJW relativism and justifications …..

      and we haven’t even got into the coming recession as yet ….

    • I can’t see the problem. It’s just some youth expressing themselves according to their culture.

      • I’d much rather see ON Mark Latham switch from NSW politics and get elected into the Federal Senate.
        There he can trade insults with the new ALP government’s senate house leader, Penny Wong.
        It will be pure theater, the queue for the senate public gallery will be a mile long. – It will be a big boost for ACT’s tourism and the service sector, jobs and growth which is supposed to be what politics is all about.

      • Gold pays no dividends, and I have to pay someone to keep it for me. It’s only value is the gamble of a capital gain, but as the Jews of Europe discovered in the period 1939-1944, when your back is to the wall gold’s value is suddenly very low even when you’re offering the real thing. If push came to shove what would be the value of a piece of paper purporting to be a right to a chunk of a gold ingot in a basement half a world away which you can’t legally take possession of anyway?

        Even if the ingot exists, which I doubt. I’ve a suspicion that if everyone with a such a piece of paper turned up outside the fund’s door wanting their chunk of ingot it would be quickly be discovered that there was a lot more gold on paper than there was in the vault.

        How some comport magical qualities to a lump of metal has to be one of the greatest shared delusions in human history. Especially when the ones selling the fear trade tend to be sellers which sell during price spikes, only to buy back at post spike, then rinse and repeat. Then again if one is talking about a gold standard wrt trade flows on only needs to gander and Hudson’s observations with Frances conversions of USD during the inflationary Vietnam war, did the anti taxers see that coming … lol …

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I was wondering about this. Pick a kid who’s had some trouble, laud him in the press for days giving everyone the expectation that he’ll play then not play him but make him sit and watch the games he thought he’d be playing in.

      Cricket Australia really don’t seem to have a lot of people who can handle others.

      • Or how about you’re a young lad who just got picked in the test squad…soak it up and enjoy a taste of things to come. That’s what many before him have done…simpler times I guess.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Usually I’d agree with that but this time it looks like the young bloke got shafted because of indecision and panic amongst the heirarchy.

        CA is an omnishambles.

  4. Venezuela on the cover of The Economist and it says:

    Venezuela will need to remove price controls and other distortions and build a social safety-net.

    https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1090961756900470787

    Take that right wing pricks! Even The Economist demands social security!

    Since 2014, right wing pricks have said “Look at Venezuela. It proves that social security should be removed”.

    RWP also say “it is impossible to define who is rich but it is very easy to define who is a dole bludger”.

    • RWP says he hears lots about rich people but no definition of what is rich (and that should not be difficult to do) from Universal Basic Income Spongers.

    • I still remember the 2002 photo opp of the attempted coup with C-corp generalissimo group hug that was reminiscent of a Gilligan Island episode. Largest reserves of oil …. must spread democracy …. chortle …

    • The comments provide interesting insights into the mindset of people who comment on Facebook about MSM news items.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Still way too many thinking it’s about how much they should be able to borrow instead of what a place should be worth.

      Also way too many thinking we should be sitting cross legged in a pyramid, humming and thinking like positive vibes man.

    • What’s that smell? It’s fear in the air.

      Declined because of a speeding fine? Fk’n LOL! Hopefully that makes even more people give up and snuffs out any hope of a recovery.

  5. Italy in recession but not that bad when accounting for population loss of 0.13% pa
    Imagine Australia with population loss of 0.13%? Our GDP would go down by 2-3% because construction would almost stall

  6. I’m in Awe of How Fast the Housing Markets in Sydney & Melbourne Come Unglued | Wolf Street

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/01/im-in-awe-of-how-fast-the-housing-markets-in-sydney-melbourne-come-unglued/

    The largest three-months fall “since at least the 80’s”: CoreLogic

    “Can we still describe this as an orderly slowdown in housing conditions?” mused CoreLogic Asia Pacific’s head of research Tim Lawless about the Australian housing market today. Over the last three months, the index for Sydney dropped 4.5%, and the index for Melbourne 4.0%, the “largest rolling quarterly fall since at least the 80’s.” … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    House prices keep falling, ahead of federal election and banking inquiry report – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/corelogic-property-price-falls-january/10769704
    .
    .
    Realtor: “Even in the GFC, it was nothing like this” – MacroBusiness Australia (behind paywall)

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/02/realtor-even-gfc-nothing-like/

      • You know flawse…. it really is incumbent on you to clarify your – suggestions – about the past and what ever agency drove it. I mean its just so cold reading or suspension of disbelief territory, I mean, whats stopping you from not withholding this critical information and then pretend to ascribe some remedy based on this secret – that you have withheld.

        You do understand the resemblance to say certain religious mobs and the mind games played on the unwashed via information arb with a side of self gifted authority.

        Spit it out man or do you not understand bad faith argumentation ….

      • skippy
        You don’t read and you don’t think. My writing has been wasted on you before and I’d be wasting my time now. You are the singularly most cluless bloke on these pages. – because you are deliberately a moron.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Flawse, Flawse, how inconsistent can you be ? You cannot have it both ways, wait let me rephrase that, maybe in your case you can.
        You accuse Skip of;
        ” My writing has been wasted on you before and I’d be wasting my time now. You are the singularly most cluless bloke on these pages. – because you are deliberately a moron.”
        Only a few days ago you said I was , and an extremist to boot.
        Make up your mind man.

  7. Drove past Olympic Park this morning. There was Opal Tower in all its glory.

    I was astounded by the number of cranes and the size and number of ongoing developments.

    People who bought into those must have their cloacas puckered right about now.

    • I’ve really liked this WI outfit. Stuart Law was their coach for a while. (There’s a guy that could have played 100 tests.) I’m also liking the pitches that the WI curators are putting out there. They are giving the bowlers glee and the batsmen nightmares.

  8. interested partyMEMBER

    Because shutdown?
    “The economy added a surprising 304,000 new jobs in January, well above the 165,000 expected by economists. Wages grew by an annual 3.2 percent, and were even higher for nonmanagerial workers with a 0.4 percent monthly gain.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/recession-fears-seem-overblown-according-to-januarys-scorching-jobs-and-manufacturing-data.html?
    It can’t be true…..lies, lies, lies.
    We all know trumps policies are crap….too many here at MB tell it so.

    Now….tell me again……how do we get this happening here in OZ?

    • It already is? Of that 304,000…
      ” an increase of 500,000 in the number of people employed part-time for economic reasons”

    • interested partyMEMBER

      Reminds me of this…

      “There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root.” ~ Henry David Thoreau

    • Groan …. there is no distributional vectors in that aggregate data or regional variances, not to mention the squillions thrown at C-corps to hire a few of the unwashed in an increasing crapified job market.

      Did you see the whole foxxcon mess, lead by Scott Walker and Co, but yeah the far right will lead us out of the mess they created in the first place …. sigh ….

    • I was in Austin in November and I was told by all my ex colleagues that jobs are booming in all sectors there. What I heard was lots of CA moving there due to cheaper house prices and same salaries. One RE agent told us that the CA lot want even cheaper taxes. That fits with what I saw living in CA as they always voted against anything that would raise state taxes.

      • @skippy …exactly. It was well discussed when I was there. Changed a lot in 10 years when I last worked there. It’s well on track for some Syd/Melb housing problems from what I saw as well.

      • Its just so much slavish devotion to walmartification in the sense of states raising the skirt and bending over without regard to anything else due to wonky econometrics, which I might offer was instigated by the corporatists at inception e.g. the market is the penultimate mechanism of distribution and claims to ownership bar none.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Yeah…I noticed that as well. Arn’t they supposed to hate trump?
        I suppose there are some things that you just can’t ignore. Must have been a tough piece to put up……lol.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        No…that didn’t last very long…..back to fake news again…

        Vid is prompted for you.
        https://youtu.be/WneijwUwpVU?t=25

        Details.
        This bloke is Governor of Virginia…..he’s a democrat. In the video he is tagged as republican. He’s KKK, and supports end of term abortion….but that is not the issue here…although it raises questions no doubt.

        Good on you CNN…….more Fake News……they are imploding in on themselves…….LOL. Can’t have buzzfeed taking all the limelight now, can we.

        Didn’t the dems crucify kavanaugh over a year book thing?

    • FiftiesFibroShack

      “Now….tell me again……how do we get this happening here in OZ?”

      Well, start running QE for the better part of a decade and keep interest rates lower than a data driven central bank would. Next, hit the back end of it with some front end loaded tax cuts – that do not come with a commensurate decrease in spending – and blow out the deficit.

      Good luck.

  9. Phil Soos interviewed about the banks.
    https://www.3cr.org.au/economists/episode-201811281730/soos-banking-sharks

    “Independent economist Philip Soos (https://twitter.com/PhilipSoos) is one of Australia’s leading young heterodox economists. We welcome him back onto the show to discuss the state of the Australian economy in light of the Royal Commission into banking. An onslaught of data points ensues, with Philip giving a detailed insight into the role of banking fraud, speculative real estate investment and the required reforms. “

    • The only reference in the AFR piece is:
      “A senior Labor source said the current credit squeeze, to the extent it was influenced by the royal commission, would ease once the findings and the various responses were issued on Monday.”

      Seems like a bit of a nothing prediction to me. Can’t see the banks suddenly lowering serviceability requirements, and they could put this down to it being not related to the RC. Labor’s promise to accept all RC recommendations just looks like a play to wedge the Liberals if they refuse to act, although they’ll probably just delay and do nothing Turnbull style.

      • Frydenberg specifically calls out the need to get credit growth back to 6.5% a year –
        https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/restoring-trust-in-australias-banks/

        Suggests there’s a plan in place. Perhaps it’s a bi-partisan thing, wouldn’t surprise that there would be a unity ticket on credit flow.

        So what’s the plan? If credit can only grow at 6.5% a year by the banks massively underestimating people’s expenses (using HEM), how does the government pitch in and provide some cover to get the credit flow back where they want it?

        Could the government go guarantor on a class of loans which are no longer getting approved due to expenses being too high? Perhaps APRA lowering the interest rate buffer is enough?

      • File under how many are dependent on income streams based on credit expansion in the face of increased amortization and how that might influence a death spiral … especially since the market only punishes those that increase a share of productivity through wages after yonks of ideological grooming. On the other hand financialized offsets that bleed workers of purchasing power, in the near term, on the argument of inflationary forces and forced savings which may or may not be realized on maturity.

        Who’s your daddy again w/ a side of keeping them keen ….

    • The comments above from relevant stakeholder, Christopher J, Janet, RJK2000, Bogan Flawse Resua, et al are correct, but way underestimate the power of the protesters.
      On Hayman island at the airstrip, you can get close to a 737 as it powers up its engines for take-off.
      For something which looks seemingly managed, when the pilots turn up the turps, the noise of the engine is an overwhelming example of its power. Same for the protesters in Europe
      Reading in the media you cant feel the power.
      When you are there you are breathless.
      There is gunna be huge upheaval over there.

      • Thanks WW. I can feel it already, bro. That is why there will a coordinated attack on them. If they bring Macron to make significant changes to France’s neolib path, the Yellow vests playbook (which relies on no leadership as one its core strengths) will be played out across the world.
        Things are desperate now for many in the world. The future of my two sons, a grandson and so on.,,, It’s getting personal and I will not stand idle and watch it all pan out

    • Also:

      economist predicts whopping 14.5 per cent fall in property prices

      Could you be more precise?

    • Northmead and to lesser extent Winston Hills had pre WW2 houses sometimes with 0 renovations past the carpet and paint (on a second thought just the paint) for a whopping $1mil plus. Apparently house on the land was an obstacle of getting even more.
      https://sqmresearch.com.au/asking-property-prices.php?postcode=2152&t=1

      I went to see this home with lots of character and 0 garage – about in May last year and indication was ‘offers over 1.5mil’. It tumbled down the cliff edge it is built on, to $1.2mil, follwed by the now more common price tag ‘contact agent’.
      $1mil will get it sold now, I can almost guarantee you that. Or you could wait to get it for a 6 digit.
      https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-northmead-129096398

    • Wow Rubbingwood was once a million dorrar burb, now it’s just an also ran packed with massage parlours

    • Three of those suburbs are in Sutherland Shire (my area) and should NEVER have been in the million dollar club,

      • 100%.
        I had a work colleague proudly tell me their house was worth at least 1.3 million. I asked her to show me some pics, it’s a kit home built in the 90s in a good street etc. etc. but it should never been worth that much. I’ve never been so deadpan in my life.

  10. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So the place next door is having a rental inspection at 11am. I’m watching the cricket. Some of Lovey’s mates are here with the kids before they head off to basketball. Lovey asks if we should put the dogs inside while potential neighbours are coming and going so there be no barking. Nah, says I, we want dog lovers moving in.

    Lovey’s mates are aghast. You should put them away so potential neighbours aren’t aware of them. Nah, says I, then they’ll just complain when they move in. Besides, if the agent and landlord want favours from us they can offer us an incentive. Eh? Back home in the north when the market was hard for owners the agents used to offer incentives to have the neighbours’ places looking clean and tidy and dogs packed away to help the sell. Sometimes even give free movie tickets as well to get them out of the house.

    Lovey’s mates are even more aghast. Never heard of this before. Bullsh!t they say. Nope, a fairly common practice if you’ve got deadbeats in the area. Watch what happens as house prices keep crashing here.

    Ladies leave in silence. Kids say goodbye.

    These are ladies all around the 40-45 mark. Never seen a downturn and are pretty much unaware of what’s been happening in Melbourne in the last 12 months. Betcha they know how much they owe the bank though.

    They don’t like me. Don’t know how to deal with someone who genuinely doesn’t give a flying about the general inanity of life that is spewed up on Facebook every day.

    I don’t think I want them to like me.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Kinda. You know these Instagram influencers? I reckon Lovey’s mates see themselves as being like that. A Stepford wives type thing. There’s really nothing that differentiates them from each other. They don’t do outside the square. Except one. She’s very cool and owns the kid we like having over the most.

        Parental influence eh?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Okay, dogs barked. Agent arrived and opened up. Dogs settled. That means nobody arrived yet. Good sign.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      A half-hearted woof. Nah, all clear, it’s the retired couple on the other side pottering in their yard. They said hello puppies. Their dog just died a few weeks ago. Very sad. They appreciated Lovey’s condolence card.

    • Yep change is coming to a suburb near you and in a downturn change is never positive.
      I remember 5 of us renting a house just after uni, we mostly owned old beaters that were parked on the street (and even worked on on-the-street on Saturdays. Whenever someone wanted to sell a house in the street we’d get a visit from the agent asking us to tidy up and maybe park the cars somewhere else. Of course being enterprising young entrepreneurs we were happy to come to a mutually beneficial financial arrangement.
      What was harder to hide from potential buyers was the neo-jailhouse look that was becoming the latest renovation trend. You can only get broken into a couple of times before the Security screens go up on all the windows, I suspect this neo-jailhouse look sends a stronger message about the direction the suburb is heading than all the agents glossies can ever hope to paper over. unfortunately recessions come with their own unique set of problems and some low-lifes choose to solve their immediate financial short falls by climbing over your back fence and relieving you of some valuables.

      btw I hate Faceballs, I can’t stand people telling me that I should be part of their Faceballs group WHY?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        When I lived in South Hedland we used to get junk mail brochures advertising house maintenance, renovations, add-ons, kitchens, bathrooms etc. One mob was particularly aware and added break-in repairs to the list of available duties.

        Still surprised that they were never branded rac!alists.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Ooohhh…a couple of punters for a look! No barking though. I think the dogs are really enjoying such a gorgeous day. One bloke walked away yelling into his phone that he held a metre from his mouth. Hate that. Thankfully he seemed unimpressed. Didn’t like the look of the guy in the front yard in an old Cronulla jersey and having a coffee out of a z o m b I e mug. Missed Joe Burns getting out.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      And it’s over. Much ado about nothing. 12 months ago there would have been hordes looking in this area. I think only two lots wandered through.

      We just signed another 12 month lease. Even got a few concessions thrown in. They kept on throwing emails at us that we ignored. I woulda chased more but Lovey was getting nervous at the madman giggling to himself. Wanted security and all that.

      I really, really hope things have turned.

  11. Taxi drivers despair as Government slashes investments
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-02/taxi-drivers-despair-as-government-slashes-investments/10773584

    Hobart property prices take ‘seasonal’ dip as regional prices continue to gather pace
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-02/hobart-property-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-years/10772336

    No reprieve as house prices continue to fall in first month of 2019: Corelogic
    https://www.afr.com/real-estate/no-reprieve-as-house-prices-continue-to-fall-in-first-month-of-2019-corelogic-20190131-h1ap23

    • Hobart finally got the memo. I know they are a bit slow down that way.. haha.

      This crash is gonna hurt..

    • Think the ACT Govt is going to have to pay compo to the Taxi Plate owners.
      I drove cabs in Canberra in 85 to 88. Taxi 31 was one of 7 owned by Asian guy who lived in Wanniassa. Was a HZ. Done a lot of ks. No aircon. When I started, all the jobs came over the radio, constant chatter at times. There were only 130 cabs in the whole of Canberra. No uber. I could make $200 on Friday night.
      I could have bought a cab, incl plate, back then for $80k.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      If you’ve ever been to San Fran it’s a magnet for so many of America’s outcasts that there are whole blocks and blocks of derros and interestingly many in wheelchairs. The reason for the problem is communism, as usual. San Fran pays derros to live there and other cities pay their derros to move there. Communism gone mad.

      • Yeah but …. elitists need these human refuse to wise up the unwashed what happens when stray from the path – they set up or to assuage their gilt in amassing great wealth [corruption and criminal acts] through tax offsetting philanthropy so they might ascend or pass through the needle as it were ….

      • Considering your stance on Trump and his economic advisory team I find that hard to accept IP, as Trumps entire past is absolutely in line with oligarchical or plutocratic social organization. The only ones that are contra to the perspective are sorts like AOC, Sanders, and Warren et al of which Trumps far right wing base absolutely hate with a ideological passion.

      • IP did you not get the WH memo about dawg choosing and then compelling Trump to be like Moses …. I mean like what part of royalty in history getting its power from divinity is confusing ….

      • “Cali is full of leaners and commies Trump needs to cut them off”

        Trump is the torch bear for leaners, wealthy dad making mint off being a slum lord, getting a daddy loan to launch his empire, being at the right time and moment to take advantage of the gentrification on intercity areas to service the new FIRE sector employees, did I say reality TVeee show host [your fired] and faced with low ratings went on a lark and still thinks hes on reality TV ….. best bit is he has not even engaged in capitalism for yonks … just sells his brand name like Brandson et al ….

        Then in the past some were confused about such aficionados being called boot lickers ….

      • A few of the ones in wheelchairs are returned soldiers. It was a thing after Vietnam. Much blood spilled since that one, sadly.

    • More to do with the fact that SF started giving out free needles to users in the 90’s and it’s escalated to particularly bad levels in the past few years. There are now apps that you can get that tell you where to avoid because there is either needles or human waste on the sidewalk. Denver had similar issues when they legalised mary jane but a lot of that has gone now 9 states have also legalised.

      https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/Those-needles-littering-the-streets-The-city-12898656.php

      Anyways, fvck SF – it’s America’s Melbourne. Massively overpriced real estate, sht weather, homeless population out of control, crowded, snooty progressive types complaining about coffee and really not that much to see (Alcatraz and GGB aside).

  12. National Automotive Leasing and Salary Packaging Association Liberal Party of Australia 150,000
    National Automotive Leasing and Salary Packaging Association Australian Labor Party (ALP) 124,900

    I guess novated leasing will remain regardless of who wins the election.

      • Yeah running around like RE specufukulators getting their just deserts in a crash …. may they all burn for their moral wanting ….

        BTW phew … good thing that whole Bhopal thingy was nothing more than a traffic fine and a minor speed bump before the onslaught of neoliberalism … I mean the end of poverty must not be hindered … its just so Blackadder goes forth ….

      • May you enjoy the questionable rights the depreciating consumable grants you by the powers of some antiquarian ideology ….

        Next question … will you have the funds to engage a security force to keep all the poor from blemishing the ambiance of your private garden …

  13. Head start for home owners makes a big difference for housing stress
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-02/head-start-for-home-owners-makes-a-big-difference-for-housing-s/10773816

    Sinkhole forms at Stockland shopping centre car park in Baldivis, south of Perth
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-02/sinkhole-forms-stockland-baldivis-shopping-centre-car-park-perth/10773884

    Stockland sinking lol

    The dominance of Australia’s big four banks under threat | ABC News
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pj3l3IPNbwM

  14. The Trump revolutionary struggle against empire.

    https://michael-hudson.com/2019/02/trumps-brilliant-strategy-to-dismember-u-s-dollar-hegemony/

    The end of America’s unchallenged global economic dominance has arrived sooner than expected, thanks to the very same Neocons who gave the world the Iraq, Syria and the dirty wars in Latin America. Just as the Vietnam War drove the United States off gold by 1971, its sponsorship and funding of violent regime change wars against Venezuela and Syria – and threatening other countries with sanctions if they do not join this crusade – is now driving European and other nations to create their alternative financial institutions.

    This break has been building for quite some time, and was bound to occur. But who would have thought that Donald Trump would become the catalytic agent? No left-wing party, no socialist, anarchist or foreign nationalist leader anywhere in the world could have achieved what he is doing to break up the American Empire.

    • interested partyMEMBER

      It was either continue and collapse, or withdraw and rebuild.
      Don’t he get hated on for that.

      It was a CIA USA that was the issue all along.

    • LOL the result was baked in long before Trump was elected and his part in this is more the result of past history than anything he [?????] could advance or is this just a variance on the 11th dimensional chess Obamabots were operating on …. hes just being propelled by the event wave and as his nature taking claim for anything that might secure his future prospects as an exemplar of flexian behavior ….

    • 007 ….

      What part about the histrionics of importing ideologues from overseas and setting them up in academia to forward a narrow ideological social agenda is lost on you and yours …..

    • Hay IP …

      Might be a factor of your ignorance of history acerbated by date of birth and various environmental ideological conditioning …. I mean what part of the MPS clan punching out of the homeland that gave birth to them in facilitating the desires of the finical elites in America for a perch in Academia and some subsidized health care.

      Then some are confused about all the privatization and financialization in every aspect of human experience because the market was omnipotent by price discovery or some such thingy …. it must be difficult to understand the conditioning free market libertarianism forwarded in grooming individuals in thinking like a corporation and how that reflected in peoples perspective towards each other in the market place of society. Newtonian – Platonic atomtistic individualism with some really bad maths and physics slapped on it to give it that Scientism glow ….

      But yeah …. money cranks ….

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Don’t drag me into your monetary weeds please.
        Go wave your leg bone at someone else.

      • IP …

        I prefaced a large quantity of factors before even mentioning monetary concerns, something regardless of is water under the bridge and one can see the effects of, point being, the monetary system informs what options are available to fix the problems the above has wrought – rather than just saying were stuck with it …..

    • What part about Trump having a dummy spat about the Fed raising IR is lost on you two wing nuts ….

    • Empty Pouch,

      What are you blabbering about?

      I made no comment beyond the ironic heading.

      I merely did what you do every day of the week.

      Cut and paste.

      This was straight from Hudson’s website.

      It’s never easy trying to decipher your “hyper intelligent” mumbo jumbo but are you attacking the article?

      I know you hate Hudson when he gives your banking buddies a serve but when it suits your purposes you like to name drop him as though he is a bestie.

      Or did you just not bother to read it?

      Good to see Sweeper giving a serve to the Magic Money Tree.

      https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/02/macro-afternoon-579/#comment-3280085

    • Cheers 07, yes read that from Naked C. Comes across as very knowledgeable does Hudson.
      What did you think? Is he right, that Trump has accelerated the decline of the US?

      • ChristopherJ,

        Without doubt Trump is accelerating something.

        The irony is exactly what Hudson notes.

        Who would have thought that Trump might prove to be the most effective agent in bringing an end to the era of US Super Imperialism? I know I didn’t. At best I thought he might talk up isolationism.

        Naturally the ineffectual ever moaning big govt left wingers like Empty Pouch will never give him credit for anything witting or unwitting but it is hard to argue that Trump has not been claiming this is where he is heading.

        The amusing bit is that having heard people moan about US SuperImperialism all my life, now that it looks like it might be coming to an end people refuse to:

        (A) believe it

        (B) acknowledge Trump may have something to do with it.

        One thing that I don’t think people are thinking about is whether the EU can survive a post US SuperImperial period.

        Is anyone in Europe really willing to accept German leadership if the US is no longer lurking with intent.

      • oo7 …

        As noted by many others in comments trump has no idea what hes doing e.g. anything that might have a positive outcome is just randomness and the attempts by some to vindicate their ideological or political camps views is no more than a desperate case of cherry picking …

      • Pouchy,

        That is exactly the predictable response I described above.

        You insist Trump is an unwitting agent of change yet he is doing pretty much what he said he would do.

        For a left wing bank/state cartel globalist like you it must be very frustrating.

        No wonder you hate the idea of agency.

      • I can’t find the information in your comment to validate it 007 … as usual is just speculative opinion with a side of ideological bias. Its not like some have done the homework and showed how he constantly changes his postion and contradicts himself endlessly.

        I mean when you’ve lost Ann Coulter and the criminal past deeds coming home to roost like his foundations …

        https://twitter.com/politvidchannel/status/1081571309006467073

      • Pouchy,

        Perhaps you should actually read Hudson rather than project your own biases …..when it suits you.

        That you criticise him for losing the support of Coulter sums up the opportunistic and bitter twisted nature of your position.

      • Please do try and review the stuff on the link which I offered to back up my claims contra to your suggestions ….

        I did read Hudson’s post and the comments wrt it, even the one where YS corrects Hudson on a specific. In no way has Hudson suggest Trump is knowingly shaping the outcomes of anything, more a case of incompetence which creates a chaotic enviroment, which then has a propensity to remove the Chimera over the Kabuki show, any moron could accomplish the same through public displays of ignorance in high office. Hell the C-corps is full of it too, its just the PR that burnishes it for public consumption.

        Gezz after a late stage alcoholic and past coke habit prez we get a guy that has put a great amount of Peru and Colombia up his nose – for years … if that’s your idea of a great national leader …. wow ….

        PS … just for shenanigans look @0:13 and the guy to the right side of Trump, his lapel pin ….. zomg too funny ….

      • Pouchy,

        It is very amusing watching you thrash about.

        Trump campaigned on a platform that was inherently inconsistent with US SuperImperialism.

        Half the time you claim that is a charade and Trump really is a secret supporter of the status quo.

        When it becomes increasingly apparent that he is damaging US Super Imperialism you claim it is purely an accident.

        Your position is completely incoherent but what’s new on that front. Wailing about neoliberalism yet being a major private bank shill.

        Trump campaigned on looking after USA interests as first priority.

        Like it or not that is what he has been doing and it is totally consistent with the decline of US SuperImperialism.

        He is giving you exactly what the left has been demanding for decades the end of Pax Americana and you are still whining.

      • Still not addressing the actual evidence put under your nose and then resort to hand waving.

        All reports still support Trump ran for office to garner political capital to save his foundering businesses prospects and it went a bridge too far …. what ever sales tactics he used is moot because he never thought he would have to go through with it. Hence not even having a legally required transitional team to move into the W.H. – his complaint was it was costing him money.

        Get some facts 007 ….

        PS. think of Clive Palmer ….

      • I would also point out the machinations in South America at the moment to make up losses in more distant geographical locations, so its just a strategic retreat to more vulnerable and closer nations to fiddle with.

      • Pouchy,

        “…I would also point out the machinations in South America…”

        Are you referring to Venezuela?

        What’s the Skippy conspiracy theory on that?

        That Chavez and Maduro were secretly working for the CIA for last 15 years and were deliberately trying to discredit socialism so that the US could stage a popular coup?

        I remember Pilger and plenty others applauding Chavez back in the day.

        They are not so keen on the guy now.

        What about you Skippy?

        Were you a fan of Hugo back in the day or just doing a lot of #WhatAboutThis ……..like the stuff you run for CCP controlled China?

      • “…Now your going completely off topic …”

        Off topic? It is right on topic.

        What is the Skippy grand meta narrative on Venezuela and Trump?

        Trump as paid up member of the status quo implementing Super Imperialism against the democratic wishes of the Venezuelan public who pray for another decade ruled by Club Hugo.

        OR

        Incompetent Trump fumbling around like a clown supporting by mistake some dude who is getting hundreds of thousands of people in the street and demanding audited elections.

        What is the approved reading of Trump’s involvement in Venezuela?

        Surely Naked Cap has explained the approved view.

        Who are the good guys and bad guys please.

        Is Guaido a CIA agent?

        What about this general? Good guy or bad guy?

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-03/venezuela-political-crisis/10774826

        They keep talking about democracy and we know how much you hate people talking about democracy and agency.

      • Trump and Hudson’s post and your opinion on it vs the information put under your nose that refutes it.

        The South American issue just highlights the faulty logic you use as a substitute for everything. Btw its been a mess down south since slavery and corporatist machinations, but there is heaps of history about anyone not following the D.C. script. Hudson notes the IMF loan to Brazil if you have forgotten, just in time for a hard right wing Christian dominate crew to come in and impose austerity, of course, after the bond holders were life rafted out.

        You do remember Hudson talking about how – historically – bond holders instigate a lot of this stuff, British and the Suez, Japan – Manchuria rail roads and anglophone investors, tinder for WWI … you get the drift ….

      • Empty Pouch,

        Even emptier than usual.

        Couldn’t you find some approved talking points about Venezuela, Hugo, Maduro and Guaido?

        Let me know when you do as standard issue United Fruit stuff is old banana.

        We need to know are the lefties with guns the good guys or bad guys. Are the streets full of democrats or fascists?

        The world is changing and you need some new narratives to make sense of it.

      • Still off topic – your opinion about what Hudson said, my pointing out its counter factual nature. I brought in the South American aspect to add more depth in exposing the weakness of your claims, you not unlike your reading of Hudson, took it completely out of context and then started banging on about democracy and agency.

        I don’t think you have a clue to the social back drop to any South American country or the class divisions. In this specific case its practically two tier e.g. small wealth set with various European back grounds or the majority which is part indigenous and blending of slaves of the past. Traditionally America has backed the small majority and in neoliberal tradition allow them to make good money for themselves for being compliant whilst the majority have absolutely no chance of improving their lives.

        Some call this Capitalism.

        Oh yeah … I do remember the 2002 coup attempt and how ham fisted it was, let alone events like the coastal strafing of the oil facilities.

        “In response to Vice President Mike Pence’s provocation the day before, President Maduro stated, “What the US government has done is to give the order to carry out a fascist coup d’état… Never before has a high-level official said that the opposition should overthrow the government… this has no historical comparison in the 200 years of US-Venezuela relations.”

        In fact, we may have to go back to Theodore Roosevelt’s creation of the nation of Panama out of Colombia in 1903 to find an appropriate comparison.

        The US has sought to destroy the Chavista Bolivarian movement since its origin twenty years ago. Obama, in a statement more out of touch with reality than Trump’s, declared Venezuela an “extraordinary threat to the national security” to the United States, and ever since, the US has imposed more and more sanctions, even blocking sales of food and medicine to Venezuela. These sanctions cut Venezuela off from refinancing foreign debt, and greatly interfere with its international trade. These brutal economic sanctions are inhuman and illegal under the Organization of American States (OAS) and the United Nations charters.” – snip

        https://popularresistance.org/the-us-coup-new-attempt-to-eradicate-the-chavista-revolution/

      • Empty Pouch,

        “..Chavista Bolivarian movement ..”

        Yep, no surprises there …….figured you would be endorsing Club Hugo.

        No doubt you have seen the future.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Well, the cleared numbers are obvious rubbish. 42 sold from 110 auctions isn’t 49%. But we expect those lies. Who has the pdfs from last year? The median price looks way down to me.

      • The usual lies yep. But on the upside – this is the best set of lies they can come up with! 😂

      • Yep well spotted, those medians are way down, Melb was in the high 700s late last year (now $610K) and Syd was above a million (now in the 800s).

      • Yeah median late last year were around 1 million. At the peak of the bubble they were up to 1.4 million. Now 855k in Sydney.

        This is the first weekend in Chinese New Year week. <50% on low volumes says that Chinese money is really down. Not a good start to the year.

    • From Louis Christopher
      The preliminary auction clearance rates are out…AND…they’re weak.
      – Sydney preliminary clearance rate was 48.8% today. 110 listed, 88 reported. Unreported rate 21.8%. Estimated final clearance rate = 43% to 46%. This time last year = 50.6% (179 listed). 2017 = 73.7%, 224 listed
      – Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate was 44.7% today. 110 also listed, 85 reported. Unreported rate = 22.7%. Estimated final clearance rate = 39% to 42%. This time last year = 62.4% (208 listed). 2017 = 72.8% 188 listed.

      You may recall, last year ended with auction clearance rates in the mid to high 30s. There seems to have been just a marginal pick up today. Normally the seasonal rise equates to about 10-15 percentage points. That’s what happened this time last year compared to Xmas 2017.

      @CooleyAuctions
      33% clearance for team Cooley today #auctionresults #sydneyrealestate
      https://twitter.com/CooleyAuctions/status/1091602808992759809

    • Canberra’s auction results are very poor again as expected with lots of withdrawn auctions and sales prior. REA’s stats are bogus again, with agents failing to report a number of passed in auctions.

      Made it to four auctions in total. First one didn’t happen as it had sold prior. Thanks Mr Agent! It’s not listed with a price so must have gone below price expectations.

      I had a feeling this auction in Griffith was going to be a car crash, as it had sold in 2016 for a lofty $1.65 million and advertised as “motivated vendor”: https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/13-landsborough-street-griffith-canberra-176109355
      Big old house on a big block on one of Griffith’s best streets with wide frontages and only a short walk to Manuka. It was a fairly poor showing with only a dozen neighbours and a few builders/developers. A couple of native gang gang cockatoos also showed up just before the auction – really cool birds if you’ve never seen them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gang-gang_cockatoo. Only two bidders and the auction quickly ran out of puff at $1.3m, but the agent squeezed another 75k out of the leading bidder and we had a sale at $1.375m to a builder/developer who will no doubt plonk 2-3 townhouses on it for retiring downsizers. The seller must feel slightly queasy having taken a fairly solid haircut of 275K + expenses, but they must have felt comforted by the auctioneer’s spiel at the start of the auction reassuring everyone that the Canberra market was “solid’ and “strong” and not like Melbourne and Sydney. The auctioneer did at least get it right that the rental market is currently quite tight in Canberra. I’d hate to see how bad things are going to be when the Canberra market is not so “solid and strong”.

      Next one had a bit more interest in terms of onlookers and a lot of agents standing around doing nothing: https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/25-bundeela-street-narrabundah-canberra-176252531
      This one was quite well presented and would suit a lot of families. That said, there was only one opening bid of 875K, which the auctioneer quipped about it being the land price (UV is 590K), followed by the bidder upping their bid to 925K after some arm twisting by the agent and bingo sold. I got the feeling from the somewhat drawn out negotiations with the vendor that they may have been somewhat reluctant to sell at that price. They probably would have gotten more a year ago but it looks like it’s the highest ever sale price in the street.

      Finally, the much anticipated second auction of 100 Finniss Cr Narrabundah: https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/100-finniss-crescent-narrabundah-canberra-175898189
      I went along with a friend who went to the previous auction and who thought there were a few more attendees this time. It passed in last November for 1.3m and then listed for offers over 1.459m. This time there was a bit more bidding, but bidding still struggled to just over 1.3m, before a vendor bid of 1.375m coaxed a further 1k bid from a reluctant bidder to be passed in at 1.376m. The auctioneer made it pretty clear they want/need over 1.4m so I suspect price expectations have not tempered much, if at all. Anyway, I see it tonight listed as withdrawn in one of the auction lists and sold for $1.395m in the other so they didn’t quite get their 1.4m in the post-auction negotiations. The agents (Belle) have another two properties for auction in the same street over the coming fortnight so they have some skin in the game as the price for this one will, to some degree, set buyer price expectations for the other two properties. Another property two doors up (no. 96) is for sale with another agency and its price has already dropped after failing to sell at auction. It looks like prices for these kinds of homes are back to 2016 prices.

      I expect they’ll put the poor results down to the test cricket being on at Manuka Oval.

      • Divide et impera

        Those prices are utterly insane on a level of WTF ? Canberra ?

        It really does blow my brain that there are so many people – so deeply and profoundly out of touch about the ongoing crash ??!

        How can anyone walk out and buy a property for $1.5 Million knowing that in 24 months it wont be worth $500k…….it just beggars belief.

        Ho hum.

      • I agree about Gang-gangs, beautiful birds that make an odd creaking noise, and so unperturbed by humans you can damn near take a selfie with them.

      • CA many thanks for the fantastic detailed report. Nice touch re the gang gangs! Classic Canberra.

        Gav, yes, it’s a nice place but a big city it ain’t. It has some truly dopey property prices for a place that should have essentially limitless land (the boundaries are mostly marginal sheep land). It has also managed to build in the last few years more apartments per capita than Sydney by a factor of about 25%.

        Thank f#ck it has cold winters and no coast or the Sydney retiree crowd would be bidding it up further like they are with the Central Coast and Qld – at least we are spared that.

      • whatcouldgowrongMEMBER

        @Gavin
        Canberra has the highest median wages in Australia, also you have very stable employment if you work in the government

      • Cheers bro. When my family arrived in Canberra in 76, noone wanted to live in Narra’ – there was a lot of social housing there.
        From memory, $40k could get you a three bedder on 900m2 back then….

      • It’s true that Canberra has the highest median wages in Australia but it’s also a weird distribution ie there are very few really wealthy people at all, and (comparatively) few “poor” people. Just a very high proportion of people on comfortable sized public service salaries. So the median income is high without the city being “rich”. Most of the city has a relatively narrow band of house prices which corresponds to the size of loan the average public service household (anecdotally, two EL1s) can get. Then a few (senior management, doctors, RE Agents etc!) can buy in the few higher priced suburbs and there are a few deadbeat options too.

        That isn’t to say prices aren’t bubbly – they have risen much faster than incomes in response to looser lending, like everywhere – but it’s arguable that people here are even less likely to default because of that financial stability. I also wonder if the stable Commonwealth defined benefit super schemes mean there are fewer boomers loading up with investment properties to “secure their future” especially in SMSFs. That may add somewhat to stability.

        Counter to this: consultants can easily get sacked and leave (Triage’s point), plus apartment construction has clearly gone way over the top so construction jobs should come off hard in a downturn. Credit tightening applies everywhere and it is kicking in. And those apartments are bought heavily by investors, just like everywhere, so that should help prices tumble nicely.

      • In the past it was regarded a social blunder to live in Narrabundah. But its close proximity to city, Manuka/Kingston and Fyshwick (giddy up), means you can now pay 600K for a basic 2 bed shack/shed through to over 1 million for a knockdown rebuild. I couldn’t believe it when I heard Canberra agent Richard Luton claim a year ago that it was his number recommendation for new people to town.
        As others have said, Canberra prices are largely a result of higher wages and job security. The higher wages coupled with the fact that prices here haven’t risen as astronomically as Sydney or Melbourne should mean that prices won’t fall as far or fast. If the SHTF, the govt should cut jobs here, and perhaps thousands of contractors will go. I see and hear of a lot of contractors working on projects that are just political brain farts.

      • Link to the allhomes Canberra auction wrap: https://www.allhomes.com.au/news/canberra-auctions-bidding-kicks-off-royal-commision-lurks-in-shadows-798018/
        The sale in Kambah in the article suggests it’s tough even around the median price. The property last sold in 2010 for 592.5K and the auction ran out of steam at 625K to sell post-auction for 675K. Before expenses it’s made just over 1% p.a. Add in all the buying, selling and holding expenses and the vendors almost certainly made a loss. It’s hilariously criminal that if you dig a little bit you find out the true situation of the market, but the rest of article claims its not so bad in Canberra and 4-6% growth is predicted for the year.

      • I enjoyed this bit:

        ““We’re finding there’s a bit of a slow-down in the market mainly due to the banks getting finances through [for buyers], but apart from that we have had pretty strong numbers through the open homes we have conducted this year,”

        Translation: “Market is down. There is a credit crunch. People walk through houses and then don’t buy them.”

      • whatcouldgowrongMEMBER

        @Arrow2
        I read in a puff piece somewhere that there was an overbuild of about 7400 dwellings already. Considering the issues around quality of construction in the ACT that have been coming out of late it’ll be interesting to see how popular the shiny new designer dogboxes are when the prices start to drop everywhere else.

    • Not that you are folly but when it hits GFC levels say in AZ [40% to 60%] after years of developer machinations [look in mirror] do send a post card ….

    • Why don’t they ask Intaj Khan for some money? That’s his neighbourhood.

      Melbourne City only exist really because of Man City’s money. Otherwise they would have folded years ago.

  15. Last night I got a text from an agent telling me a property I was interested in was going to have an offer put forward, it was originally listed at $1.1m then dropped to range of $980k – $1.050m.

    I said thanks I’ll be in touch. Early AM today I got a message stating that indications are price of mid $900s. Am I in a position to make an offer? I said, yes but not at that price range.

    Anyway spoke to agent in phone after that. Told him I was more in the low 800s range. I basically stated that I could replicate the same house for around $550k building wise and the land is about $250k. Agent somewhat agreed and said he had a similar discussion with the vendor but they will be stubborn on price.

    I am not sure if any other offer really does exist and if agent is trying to see where we are at, but assuming it is genuine and someone is willing to pay $950k I’m fine with them buying it.

    I am keen on another property being sold by the same agent and it’s had 1 verbal offer of someone who needs to sell their own place first. Second offer is pending sale of a block of land (no house on it) but vendor has turned that down. $910k

    Same vendor knocked back my offer of $760k unconditional, they bought it for $770k in 2017 (Jan). Houses in the area are still selling but at.a slower pace and below guide (or the low end of a quoted) range. Being slightly out of Melbourne (end of metro line + 5 mins drive) I think there is a lag effect.

    I reckon offers subject to sales of other properties are weak as piss. I can front up without any such conditions. Of course punters can put in offers and deals can fall apart easily enough also.

    Interesting times… Hope Hayne’s report will be a massive wet blanket along with tighter credit and falling bank share prices.

    The usual gang of property pundits on Facebook telling me to shut up and buy are very quiet lately. 1 of my friends simply replied to a post about housing values falling as said “you must be loving this?” Yes, yea I am.

    • I would keep track of general price falls each month and keep in mind how many months of working for salary you just saved by not buying. Plus the amount of compounding interest on that future savings you can have invested.

      • Well right now I’m paying rent each month, which is the same as interest on a mortgage. Savings earn sweet FA in a bank and global stocks look set for a correction. I can live in a home I guess..

        Here is a property I had the folks look at for me today.

        Guide price: $880-$960k
        https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-eltham-130388414

        $761k in 2015
        https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-eltham-120786309

        $1.0M in 2016
        https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-eltham-123888730

        So current sellers are gonna lose a good chunk of change once you factor in stamp duty, interest paid and capital loss.

        It’s not suitable for me, nowhere to build a garage and quite a bit of noise from the train line behind. Pros are not far from Eltham station and a cool / modern mudbrick design.

      • @Boom as much as I like warehouses it’s contamination and zoning issues that come with which are the problem. Not to mention no hard to grow food (if it does have grass it’s usually poisoned land), so I started to look at Mudbrick homes as I like what their about. I like a lot of alternative building materials actually and concepts. Not a fan of cookie cutter style homes that bought our landscape. Going further out I can have the space/land to build a decent workshop (which looks like a warehouse) and a quality built mudbrick home with space to have a veggie patch and an escape from inner city madness and noise.

        As cities become over crowded I want to move away from the hustle and bustle. I still look for old warehouses but often they just won’t suit my needs/wants or have obscene multi-million dollar price tags.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Agreed, sounds like a much better propitiation (sic). Should hear the missus bitching about swarf in her feet at home. Keep the home separate from the workshop.(ex granny flat)

    • Divide et impera

      By your own admission you have already made $150 / year NOT buying that property.

      And when that very same property goes down to $400k in 2 years would would have MADE another $400k – or lost $800k

      I beggars belief that people are so willing to throw away money so early in a housing crash – obviously its frustration and pent up demand after such an extended period – but seriously – its complete and UTTER insanity.

      The Australian housing market is going to crash by more than 50% – there is no question about this at all – none.

      Go and look at SQM research to understand just HOW distorted your understanding of the market has become. Brunswick is a good start. Eltham is good too.

      These places were at $3-400k only five years ago – they doubled to $800k in the space of 2 years, then doubled again. Its shocking to see places which were $400k only 5 years ago asking $1.6 million – but people think its normal because they are boiled frogs.

      There is no question here – the place you are looking at is worth maybe $400k – and on a world scale, proximity to the city, quality of build, lifestyle etc – its worth $300k

      You are literally throwing your life away – its insanity.

      • Certainly that is about the decline needed, bro. 50% from peak in some suburbs of our capitals and many of our coastal and regional towns too.
        When I started working life houses were about 5 times the basic wage of one person. Now more than 10 times… and all fueled by debt that you can’t walk away from, easily

      • Wages and productivity diverged in the mid 70s, Plaza dictated that capital was the best allocator of everything, Banks lost their traditional market share and sought profit in the C/RE market, SIV and MBS were creatures of investor demand, Grishams law under the neoliberal survival of the fittest meme and the self regulating market w/ a side of share holder value meme went exponential, credit issuance with a side of fee extraction [see McKinsey & Company] and revolving debt, people were forced into seeking yield to offset share of productivity and stampeded into RE because others were making huge returns and the stock market seemed to be nothing but a series of bubbles that went pop like crypto …. all to fund their lives and retirement …. as the good free market sorts proselytized ….

      • I don’t disagree, I will just say that.
        1. There is few safe places to park cash in today’s everything is a bubble world.
        2. Buying with 80-90% deposit will not ruin me.
        3. I don’t mind have my capital locked up for 30+ years. Once I buy I don’t intend to sell for at least 15 or so years. Unless they change stamp duty I don’t plan to sell for 30. (I know plans change in time).
        4. My mum has a 2 bed (will renovate to 3) house in South Melbourne. If I get sick of commuting for work in the CBD I can use her house to get to work during the week. (since I’m looking in an area about 36km from the CBD). My mum has a country house she plans to spend more and more time at anyway in retirement so the CBD home is likely to be empty more often.
        5. I am worried about QE if in long $AUD. Bank bail in if I have $USD in Westpac or Aussie bank and stock market crash in US equities. In long Euro, but that’s looking shakey also. I’m thinking it’s time to consolidate my wealth into something I can live in and get use out of for years to come.
        6. Misses wants to get started having kids soon. You can do so in a rented home. But $30k P/year in rent means in 5 years time I’ve paid $150k. That’s literally what I’m hoping to have for a mortgage.
        7. Everyone’s circumstances are different I suppose.
        8. My mum owned land in Kinglake and it cost her $700k to build a home there. The mudbrick places I’m looking at would possibly cost more to build given how Labor intensive they are to build.
        Example place in Kinglake that sold recently for $760k.

        14 Koetong Street Kinglake Vic 3763 https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-kinglake-129980730
        9. I think we are entering an era of persistently low interest rates (can’t see how they will increase long term) unless we have a less global economy. Then we have to consider higher inflation which will wipe debts off.

        I think we need a 60-70% fall in parts of the market. I’m sure some parts will get that, but if you buy something unique, rare and with an element of scarcity in the long run it will hold value. This is exactly what I’ve done re: classic cars.

        Like I say to each their own and everyone’s situation and motivations are different.

      • 1. There is few safe places to park cash in today’s everything is a bubble world.

        If you go back and look at the Eisenhower years tax system you might understand your case better e.g. what was taxed and why.

      • Your wrong they were 3-400k during the gfc only for a very brief period then they shot up and stayed there for 10 yrs. I’m still skeptical and think some sort of QE will lift inflation to the extreme again, money gotta find a home.

  16. A good episode of Renegade Inc. on why the war on drugs is doomed to fail.
    https://youtu.be/4w7Lv0SKSU0
    The guests are an ex undercover policeman who is no a decriminalization advocate and the author of ‘Chasing the Scream’ the excellent book on the the history of the multi decade war on drugs.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      LOL. God, please don’t ever change.

      PS Party winding down late this morning or did you do an extra line or two today? Ah… Sorry… Obvious in’nit – up early to snap up some bargains at the auctions this morning.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Oh. Actual answers. Well then, because: lazy and/or thick as. And for the rest – deprived of the opportunities others have due to the circumstances of the lottery that is their birth. Though that’s less of an issue than it used to be nowadays.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Wilbur, only one rule to becoming wealthy,= delayed gratification.
        btw you don’t need much money to feel wealthy.

      • Boom …

        Back in my youthful days the formula was you had to make your first million some how or by hook or crook …. then you got a seat at the table and could play with others peoples money … self evident … they should let you as you made packet.

      • If that were the case, then why is there a systematic impoverishment of the greater part of society? How one plays the game of life affects the outcome, yet the rules of the game and one’s place on the board also greatly dictates success.

      • Footsore …

        One of my eldest sons primary school friends, dad, help run his fathers family F&B distribution biz, 20+ years. Anywho one of the products they actually made was nappies, as it were, there was standing rule that they would not attempt to take the high end product market share, they supplied the middle, and someone else the cheap stuff. You see the high end had deep pockets and being a international brand and could sell at a loss for 6+ months without breaking a sweat, only cared about long term market share, send you bust with a blink of an eye.

        Sadly some years later the high end decided it wanted the market share anyway, and sent his fathers business broke. Seems I spoke of such things years about wrt Swift commanding dominate market share and driving out heaps of generational family business only to be informed it was just market efficiency by some around here and would keep prices down, hence inflation in wages et al ….

      • triage …

        Thing is the only ones that think it was due to only individual effort are the narcissistic megalomaniacs.

    • Divide et impera

      The only thing I have heard from the Greens is migration, Gay marriage, womens rights, and asylum seeker detention for nearly 5 years. Literally nothing else – NOT ONE THING – beyond identity politics.

      Sure a fish kill pops up, a heat wave – and they jump on board the band wagon – but as a central political theme – their message is very, VERY clear

      INTERSECTIONAL IDENTITY POLITICS

      Diversity, minority representation, quotas, wage gap, gender wars, etc, etc, etc – no one can dispute the disparity between fighting for the Franklin and the unrelenting hysterical outbursts of Sarah Hanson-Young over migrants.

      Its absolutely extraordinary.

      The far left wing has been totally consumed by identity politics – and until it can reengage in the class war it is a completely and utterly useless naval gazing self obsessed narcissistic child squealing about a smudge on the floor of its ivory towers.

      Insanely rich inner city westeners whining, whinging and squealing about how unfair things are while the workers, the environment, the planet is crushed.

      Talk to me about the CIA and Abrhams involvement in Venezeula, talk to me about the crimes against humanity in the Islamic world against women – real gender issues, talk to me about how rampant migration into the west is fueling decades of impoverishment of western societies leading to reemergence of ultra-right wing fascism – oh you wont – because you LITERALLY believe and have stated publicly that we need to repay the third world and rebalance the planets allocation of wealth.

      Meanwhile – all the fish are dead, the Great Barrier Reef is dead, Tasmania is on fire, our states are blacking out – but yeah, we need to give away our wealth to the third world.

      Bastards.

  17. NEW ZEALAND: Stacey Kirk: KiwiBuild noose tightens; Labour’s flagship policy is a dead duck | Opinion | | Stuff.co.nz

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/110100092/stacey-kirk-kiwibuild-noose-tightens-labours-flagship-policy-is-a-dead-duck

    OPINION: When project deadlines start blowing out, its only ever downhill from there.

    Longer delays, greater costs, more corners being cut to try and get it back on track.

    KiwiBuild was never going to be able to reach the milestones the Government had set – not without significant reform of the Resource Management Act. And yet, it could prove to be the most unforgiving policy to get wrong. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Kiwibuild makes the NY Times – Kiwiblog

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/02/kiwibuild_makes_the_ny_times.html
    .
    .
    New Zealand Vowed 100,000 New Homes to Ease Crunch. So Far It Has Built 47. – The New York Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/world/asia/new-zealand-housing-prices.html

  18. As the Australian reports today:
    Germany’s far right plots route to power at mountain-top rally.
    Legend has it that the medieval German king Barbarossa is sleeping in an underground citadel beneath the Kyffhauser mountain, waiting for the call to rise and take back his vast dominions.
    At its summit is a giant monument built for Kaiser Wilhelm I, the Prussian king who unified Germany into an empire.
    In 1939, the Nazis erected a statue there of Paul von Hindenburg, the First World War field marshal who later made Hitler chancellor. (of Hindenburg Zeppelin fame)
    Today, though, the Kyffhauser has quietly become the rallying ground for a modern far-right faction that has come to dominate the Alternative for Germany [AfD] party.
    Once a year, the AfD’s leaders come to pay their respects at the cauldron of a new and virulent form of German nationalism that dismisses the Holocaust as an irrelevance and Muslims as a cancerous blight on the present.
    Known as the Wing, the movement has forged ties with the white supremacist underground and devised an ideology that espouses the genetic and cultural superiority of the German race.
    Last year his close ally Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, a member of the state parliament in neighbouring Saxony-Anhalt, told the Kyffhauser crowd that Islam was like a “tree fungus” infecting the sickly oak of Germany.
    “Our Germanness is, I would say, a special light that illuminates our entire German world,” he said.
    Past AfD leaders have regarded Mr Hocke and his lieutenants as a scourge of their party.
    In the months before the 2017 general election, however, a seismic shift in the AfD brought Mr
    Hocke back into favour. Frauke Petry, the party’s relatively cautious leader, was replaced with Alexander Gauland and Jorg Meuthen, two tweedy figures from its right-wing fringe.
    Both have since made their pilgrimage to pay homage to Mr Hocke and the Wing at their mountain stronghold.
    In his 2017 Kyffhauser speech, Dr Meuthen described Muslim migrants as “illiterates” who would bring down the German welfare system and “import terror”.
    Not to be outdone, Dr Gauland told last year’s gathering that immigrants from the Arab world were “almost invariably ill-educated, raised in tribal societies, and pious to the point of disability”.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      WW as per usual a great post. They can’t say I’ll educated as Middle East had the first universities and we free to anyone.

      • There are talking about immigrants, not those who stayed behind. Remember. the dark ages kicked off when the libraries at Alexandria were torched. at one time they held all the technology. then religion knew better

        Now a business app for you,
        A small injection moulding plant to modify the impression on the sole of the latest Nike Air
        and
        you need to get up to speed on penny press machines,
        I may have an order for a coupla thousand
        Cost plus.

      • Any riding this weekend BE? I only did 90 as mates were sick. Bloody hot also here in Melb. It was fine a 7am, but the last few k’s were starting to steam.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        afund, this morn about 60, taking your advice and ploughing through the rough spot (fall apart in the heat). Weeks ago 1.6 klms behind then 1 klm, today .75klm. So when it cools down hopefully will be waiting at top for them as usual.
        WW thanks for your kind offer, keep in mind I’m primarily a machinery repairer/ modifier not a maker nor manufacturer.

      • Boomer
        Looks like the frame will be water jet cut, for honing-milling to bearing size
        the gears are off the shelf
        the shafts are parted and machined from bar
        the rotary dies, off the shelf from the die maker
        the hardest part will be the handle,
        needed for the surfing project.

    • Funny how all the immigrants are from country’s which have been both destabilized looted by right wing groups for profit.

      • Sure am, but it was not due to others destabilizing my country for fun and profit, actually took a rather large pay cut and diminished future income. I still remember the rights anguish over boat people when 90%+ were coming over on planes, not a peep for years and years, the market demanded it and en fin ….

        Also why I moved to Brisbane and not capital cities in the south, seen the movie and the ending more than a few times.

    • I used to work regularly in Germany and never heard any racist talk, but my last working year there was 2009, so things have changed as I also hear from ex colleagues, but mostly in big cities. The AfD don’t get out much, not in tech at least, as I worked with lots of muslim engineers up to the PhD level. Most of them would never bring up religion at work and generally were very respectful, but like all groups you get exceptions.

      • This is not racist talk its about “illiterates” who would bring down the German welfare system and “import terror”.and those who were “almost invariably ill-educated, raised in tribal societies, and pious to the point of disability”.
        Could also apply to the Poms and the Frogs.
        I now hear we have a massive lack of skilled, educated persons in this country
        Time to roll out the robots

      • Yeah … but how would war inc make packet if you cant bomb some folks … think of the GDP !!!!!!

      • Skip, bombs, Ive just seen Cologne, it has been rebuilt, good as old Cologne
        every time they winged about the bombing , i reminded them they started it
        then they winged about the brain drain, Werner von Braun etc to the USA
        and many to Toowoomba, Australia.
        But they are back on their feet now, with a vengeance.

      • The AfD don’t get out much, not in tech at least, as I worked with lots of muslim engineers up to the PhD level. Most of them would never bring up religion at work and generally were very respectful, but like all groups you get exceptions.

        Taqiya, obviously. Just ask any of MB’s Islamic experts.

    • Ok. Don’t worry the robots are coming big time. I have many s/w eng mates working on them, and they tell scary tales.

      • @CJ The one that scares me as I’m a software dev guy is the AI/bot to develop code. There has been some of this in the past, but it required some human input. My view, not their view, is that’ll it take more than five years they are talking about; but by 10/15 years I’m feeling vulnerable. It’s why I’ve been studying AI/maching learning, but most of the jobs are creepy in that they are data collection on humanity which I’m dead against. Others are any job that can be done by machine and that’s many sectors. The scary thing is where will people eventually get jobs?

      • Down in France Switzerland is the hadron collider
        currently the biggest on the planet till musk builds his
        it is currently run by AI both for its programming and future activity based on the results of the last test
        Some down there are also using AI to attempt to get fusion up and running
        in the past Europe led the planet in scientific discovery
        they are hell bent on retaking the crown, using AI as the means.
        we, on this island, have nfi of what the hell is really going on.
        technology has a squirrel grip on the future.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Handgrenades require pin-pulling, Hayne already did that, and he’s too clever to sit next to something like a live grenade. The author should have used a better (more accurate) metaphor such as: unexploded-ordanance, or toxic-waste, or depleted uranium shell. Something ‘live’ the government will try and backaway from once they have a closer look at it. E.g. unstable-nitro.

    • Scummo’s already in full reverse, at least according to the soundbite on Insiders today. Basically he appears to be saying that it’s binary: either we continue to let banks carry on the way they have in the past or we pull up the banks but bring about a credit crash.

  19. Norway’s 1 Trillion SWF. Main take I saw was in the three points here. So risk in China and RE, but so much in the stock market risked. Interesting to read this though
    – China at this stage is less than 3 percent of our portfolio.
    – Structurally, we currently have 2.7 percent in real estate.
    – Norwegian people and through their representatives in the parliament and the execution of the mandate—a risk preference which basically says 70 percent equities and 30 percent government bonds.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-02/norway-s-1-trillion-man-talks-brexit-china-and-big-tech?srnd=premium-asia

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      The Pommie commentators on the wireless this morning were appalled. They gave up calling cricket and were talking about the lords of yesteryear but couldn’t finish a story because they’d have to cross back to describe another feat of English stupidity. Took about 15 minutes to finish a wonderful tale of Malcolm Marshall and Sir Viv Richards playing on opposing teams in a Challenge Cup final. Viv’s team won when he hooked Malcolm for six from the last ball of the game.

      “Malcolm mon, I knew you were going to bowl a bouncer but I couldn’t decide whether to hit you for four or six…”

  20. Morgan Stanley warns the rate of property price falls may be ‘difficult for the economy to absorb’
    https://www.afr.com/real-estate/morgan-stanley-warns-the-rate-of-property-price-falls-may-be-difficult-for-the-economy-to-absorb-20190203-h1asd2
    [Residential property prices are falling too fast for the broader economy to absorb and could force the RBA to cut rates to prevent a consumer slowdown, job losses and weakening dollar, according to global investment bank Morgan Stanley.]

      • Possibly a subeditor who doesn’t know the subject going and messing with the “ands” and commas. Should say “could force the RBA to cut rates to prevent a consumer slowdown and job losses, weakening the dollar”.

    • $500 for one days’ worth of electricity. I used to think those Telsa batteries would cost more than they save before needing to be replaced. They might pay themselves off many times over in Vic and SA,

  21. Working but homeless: Higher rents hitting Victorians with jobs
    https://www.domain.com.au/news/working-but-homeless-higher-rents-hitting-victorians-with-jobs/

    More than 8000 working Victorians were seeking assistance to stay off the streets in 2017-18, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s recent Specialist Homelessness Services report. Of these, 2971 people with full-time work fronted up at homelessness services – a rise of 31 per cent over the past three years. A further 5453 working part-time had also sought assistance. At the same time, Melbourne rents are at a record high, jumping by an average of 2.3 per cent in Melbourne year-on-year to an average of $440 per week, according to Domain’s Rental Report for the December quarter 2018.

    Quick, let’s bring in more people!

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Sounds like they’re on drugs and sh1t to me. Social issues even though they somehow hold down jobs. It’s the reason why no one will have them in their 13 bed 2 bed inner city apartment.

  22. Sydney first homebuyer shares clever savings hacks
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/sydney-first-homebuyer-shares-clever-savings-hacks/news-story/e693f638182d07a9936f941827360202

    One year was all it took for Sydney man Sam O’Connor to get his foot on the property ladder. The 29-year-old has just snapped up a two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment with a two-car garage in Bexley, 13km from Sydney’s CBD. The property manager, who earns $83,000 per year, was able to save a 10 per cent deposit for the $499,000 flat in less than 12 months.

    In addition to his savings plan, Mr O’Connor also supplemented his income by doing “side hustles” such as importing and dropshipping products from AliExpress and Alibaba, and then selling them on eBay.

    A $49.9k deposit in one year on 83k pa doesn’t add up. Wonder if he declared his income from these side hustles?

    • First suspicion is who he is: “The property manager…”. Next “ he restricted his regular expenses to just $1200 a month” Really?:! So either he paid no rent or didn’t eat. But let’s assume he did pay his flatmate something. But he didn’t skimp on the gym! “using pay-as-you-go gym memberships rather than fixed-term contracts, having prepaid phone plans, eating low-priced but healthy food’ But then he hit rock bottom! “ learning to enjoy cask wine,”
      And as for your question, roughly “Did he inform the taxman?” Well, did he pay tax on his $83k at all?! Whats’ $83k after tax to even save any deposit in your neck of the woods?
      You’re right. It doesn’t add up…

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      It’s about time the media gave us a positive story of property success rather than their usual bias to make up bad property news for click bait. This guy represents how all young people should be striving for property investment achievement!

    • $83k pa for a Property Manager? wtf?

      I know people in far more skilled roles on less than that.

    • Nice pickup. It is the same savings hack as always with mum and dad providing all or part of the deposit, and the banks turning a blind eye to the 160% savings rate.

  23. 5G security hole discovered, and it’d be interesting to read all the 3GPP emails on this. Can’t be bothered, but there is also the SS7 holes that can be exploited. So if your a 5G supplier with handsets and core network products you can see it all.

    https://eprint.iacr.org/2018/1175.pdf

      • It’s a huge issue, and they can fund the IP , which they steal a lot of, but they also do their own and are listing more IP claims than any other nation…the scientists/engs are probably forced to work. They’ve stolen all the Aus Quantum research and loads of other IP from us of late. Part of any deal working with them is that they get the IP. Russia and other so called rogue states are nothing on this lot. The fact that Norway has less than 3% of their 1 Trillion SWF in China is a key metric. They are becoming quite unhinged as well over what they say is theirs in territory terms. How come they setup three military based in Antarctica on Oz land, and we only hear about it via foreign press. I have a very dim view of this, and our pollies for allowing it to happen. Our sec services warn and the pollies just ignore it. It could be much worse than we know. It’s like everything seem to be in this country now …corrupt/opaque no long term view. BTW WW I left Oz and spent years OS as an engineer referring to you other LHC post. When family permit I’ll be off again.

    • Same out in Mernda and South Morang up north.

      As I said elsewhere, there will be exodus a plenty in the next twelve months.

  24. Seems apropos to the perspective some around here hold ….

    The econometrician Henri Theil once said “models are to be used but not to be believed.” I use the rational actor model for thinking about marginal changes but Gary Becker really believed the model. Once, at a dinner with Becker, I remarked that extreme punishment could lead to so much poverty and hatred that it could create blowback. Becker was having none of it. For every example that I raised of blowback, he responded with a demand for yet more punishment …

    Alex Tabarrok

      • This might help … rational people make lots of money and have sexy time …. poor people are loosers and its been debated if they should even be able to procreate … the model said soooo … its true ….

      • 1. The prey population finds ample food at all times.
        2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the size of the prey population.
        3. The rate of change of population is proportional to its size.
        4. During the process, the environment does not change in favour of one species, and genetic adaptation is inconsequential.
        5. Predators have limitless appetite.

    • If 20,thousand houses go under in tvl from 8:30 pm today
      he is in like flynn
      what are all those punters doing living in a flood plain.???
      who approved those developments
      20 thousand houses??

      • D-Day for Townsville, as extreme rainfall and a catastrophic flood disaster engulfs the 185,000-strong north Queensland city. Locals witnessed incredible scenes of flash-flooding and 500 evacuations in nine of the hardest-hit suburbs — where 20,000 homes could be impacted in a worst-case scenario.
        The flood gates go wide open from 8:30 pm “This is worse than the ’98 flood definitely,” she said.
        “Worse than Yasi.
        They’ve got to release water from the dam, because if it spills over the top,
        it’s just going to take the dam wall with it.”

  25. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/finance-sector-set-for-a-huge-shake-up-as-government-responds-to-hayne-report-20190203-p50ve7.html

    Commissioner Hayne’s year-long report will be released on Monday afternoon with the government to immediately deliver an interim response.

    Prime Minister Fatso Scumbag Morrison has urged all property bears and looser (q.v. loser) renters to proceed cautiously when operating their left handed mice whilst reading the Royal Commissioner’s Report. In a useful tip, IT experts are urging people to stock up on lube and an industrial strength laptop and PC screen cleaners early in the day. Health experts caution anyone experiencing friction burns to seek medical advice early and before reading Tuesday’s RBA interest rates decision.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      i’ve laid plastic sheeting all over my home study in anticipation. It looks like one of those premeditated murders on tv where the killer lays out all the plastic so they won’t leave any dna

      • I only hope it goes as intended. Every chance the MB collective reaction will be vomit and/or tears.

        Lower your expectations far and early and then you can only be pleasantly surprised…

      • Hey Burnsie I got my Legends of the East Satchel today.

        I gave up searching around and did some missions and lo, the l0rd provided. Badger friday cougar yesterday and wolf today.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      she is the monarch of the country and the entire commonwealth Gav. Of course there are different rules for them; and tbh most english people are fine with the monarchy (especially those that voted Leave).

    • I’m going to take a stab in the dark and say “extremely dishonest”!

      Now o ff to see if 60 Minutes is on demand yet…

      • If you’re a DFA patreon, you can watch the unlocked video right now that just came in the email.

        Gives me the warm and fuzzies that some of my money is helping to bring down the corrupt property ponzi 🙂

  26. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Just saw that 60 minutes anti-housing market propaganda video on channel 9. How fake. Just people trying to get out of their obligations to live in apartments. Hey if you don’t like apartments anymore too bad because that’s a much better way to live than houses and is the future. If you don’t want that luxury apartment anymore a freshly imported vibrant use to living in a sewer will happily live there instead! Apparently there will be more anti-apartment living propaganda on ACA tomorrow.

    • I liked the advert immensely – cracks in the ceiling and the degraded support pillars. They speak to a general lack of standards in the industry, and not a design flaw of Opal Tower uniquely. Princess Josh can ask the banks to lend as much as he wants, but nobody will want to borrow.

    • Glad you could make sense of it reusa as I thought it was a complete dog’s breakfast. Was the point of the story about people taking losses from shoddy construction or people taking losses from being overleveraged in a falling market? First time I’ve watched a whole 60 minutes show in decades. What a garbage bin – that Tomic story was obviously in the can before the Tennis Australia boss came out yesterday and said that Tomic was deliberating trying to bugger things up for tennis in Australia but still they went with the outdated and now superceded interview of Wally Masur. How f*cn shoddy was that? And the ads! Are Channel 9 watchers really that dumb as to be impressed by them? Thank gawd for the internet.

      • Even though the narrative was a little lost I quite enjoyed the bear porn broadcast on MSM. Unfortunately they only demonized apartments and not the broader ponzi. I’ll take it though

    • between the pure ignorance, casual racism and misspelling – i think you found the godhead…

      reusa for PM!