Macrobusiness Chartfest 12 May, 2018

AUSTRALIA

Australian Federal Government Balances since Federation – note the 50s & 60s, our government is looking to debt load and dissipate with population ponzi again.

Australian government debt to GDP – we have driven it higher to bloat property prices and trash our education sector, while exporting the non-mining or agriculture external facing sectors of the economy

Budget 2018 – benefits over time.  A great budget for the rich to just sit and wait for the money to start flowing to them.

Budget 2018 – top 20% and beneficiaries. A great budget for the rich to just sit and wait for the money to start flowing to them.

Budget 2018 – the relief that never really relieves

RBA rate hike expectations – endlessly receding Tanguy horizon

Housing Finance and Prices

Housing commitments

Iron ore supply in China

UNITED STATES

 

United States – Total Consumer Debt

 

United States – teenage labour participation

 

United States – labour participation 1990 onwards

 

United States – Initial Jobless 2005 – 2018

 

United States – income growth

United States – Private sector yields and industrial production

United States – Recession probability since 1986

United States – Economic recovery durations

United States Stimulus and Unemployment

 

United States – Household equity exposure

 

Jobless adjusted for age

Age of US housing stock

 

EUROPE

Irish contribution to Eurozone exports

Greece Unemployment

CAPITAL MARKETS

 

 

Global private sector debt creation (and just how private is anything in China?)

 

Major Global Central Bank positioning over time

 

Emerging Market currencies April-May 2018

 

Argentine Peso – Look out below

 

Turkish Lira

 

US Treasuries – Flatten that curve baby

 

 

10 Year yields

 

United States – Germany 10 year spread

 

United States Corporate Debt maturity profile

 

 

Emerging Market US dollar denominated debt maturity profile

 

Foreign Currency debt to GDP – selected nations

 

 

LIBOR – OIS Spread

 

Buybacks and the S&P500

GLOBAL MACRO

Selected nations population growth – post 2008

 

Global Economic Momentum

 

Global Central Bank balances

 

 

The scale of the global pension dilemma

 

The Global Working Poor

Africa – GDP per capita by country 2016

OECD and selected others – Industrial Production and Momentum

Energy related carbon dioxide emissions

Interest rates over the really long term

Gunnamatta

General all round punter

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Comments

  1. love the u.s housing stock age map – really highlights just how little population growth there has been in the midwest and great plains states compared to the sunbelt and west coast.

  2. TailorTrashMEMBER

    As always that is Gunna Gold ……great mate ….more please …anytime .

    And jeez that first chart says Straya is a struggling enterprise
    …but when you become acquainted with the landscape you can know why ..hard country …no water .and poor carrying capacity …if in most of it sheep can’t make it …can hopeful immigrants do it speculating on concrete boxes ?
    …….the end may be postponed………but it will come .

    • I think automation will be a triple whammy for Australia:

      If driverless forklifts and cars become a thing, the “skilled” immigrants will not be able to get jobs here and will stop coming over – which in turn will kill the ponzi jobs such as town planners, builders, and real estate agents.

      If there is no hope of getting a job, people will move out of Sydney and real estate prices will collapse.

      Federal government revenue will collapse due to it being dependant on income taxes rather than LNG export taxes.

      UAE has no income tax and does not give out citizenship easily. So the 3rd world labourers can be booted out when robots take over and the economy would keep functioning as if nothing changed. While the 3rd world laborers in Australia are given citizenship within 4 years and Australia will have to give them a UBI when robots drive the forklifts.

      • PantoneMEMBER

        Interesting point about UAE. I’d never thought that a dependence on income tax would incentivise population growth, but it makes sense.

  3. From Global Pension Dilemma graph!

    The pension gap in these 8 countries ( Aussie, USA , China and India included) stood at $70 trillion in 2015, 75% of which was funded by Government debt. It is expected to reach $400 trillion by 2050, 5 times the value of global GDP”

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      A lot of old people are going to have to work till they’re 80 or drop, oh wait, what about the machines? Will their super-rich owners be happy to pay for the pensions of the useless – ie – the rest of us?

      • St Jacques, some billionaires are happy to – Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, maybe Melinda Gates (but I think she only cares about the poor in Africa and does not give a damn about the poor in USA). Heck, Musk is even calling for reciprocal import taxes on Chinese cars.

        USA almost gave everyone a pension in 1970! What a coincidence that the 2 men who were going to put in a universal pension were dismissed! Whitlam and Nixon. We got universal healthcare though.

        90% of the newspapers in 1969 wanted a universal pension! And now 90% of the newspapers are owned by Murdoch.

  4. GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a period (quarterly or yearly). In 1944, GDP became the main tool for measuring a country’s economy, loosely based on the approach that all of the product produced must be bought by somebody, so the value of the total product must be equal to people’s total expenditures in buying things. (as it generally was in those days)
    In layman’s terms for Straya, since 1944 there has become 2 separate economies, the real economy
    and the the financial economy. The financial economy FIRE is now HUGE cos of all the superannuaton running around in it, and as we are seeing at the banking RC fees for the management of that money are based on the volume of money, not the performance of the manager.(a typical ponzi perpetual motion machine concept)
    In Straya the real economy is at the bottom of the harbour.
    My call is that FIRE sector contribution to GDP should be classified as an economic overhead, (which should be subtracted from GDP not included in it) which I claim is the real measure of the growth of an economy.
    With that consideration, GDP for straya mate should be only 1/3 of what is shown on charts, thus debt for example is through the roof. Some say society cannot advance until debts are repaid.
    But as interest rates for dept repayment are much greater than the growth in the real economy, we are in the great coriolis spiral down the toilet
    Remember:
    You cant spend your way to prosperity!
    A service industry cannot support an economy!
    The wealthy will not support the poor.
    You cant legislate aptitude and intuition
    You cant legislate innovation.
    It is easier to keep a pig away from the trough, than to get its snout of it

    Debt in almost every country is equal to the entire GDP, the entire national income.
    Now, if debt is equal to GDP and the interest rate on debt that people have to pay is 4%, then if economies only grow at 1 or 2% (as they are today), then ALL their economic growth has to be devoted to repaying the financial sector in interest payments.
    On interest alone – no repayments of principal to pay down the debt.
    This is the phenomenon of debt deflation which is terminal for an economy

  5. The US labour market recovery / state doesn’t look so strong when you look at that participation rate… Really puts the 4% unemployment rate into context