Weekend Links, September 2-3, 2017

Spring Moon, John Aland, 1967, Art Gallery of NSW

 

China

Asia

Europe

United Kingdom

United States

Americas

Terra Specufestorus

Commodities

Capital Markets

Global Macro

…and furthermore…

Comments

    • Who cares about clearance rates … culture, beaotch! They’re going to be there later in the day, in the mean time – classical music!

  1. If China wants to abolish poverty, do not have a real estate bubble. It is properly insane to spend 50% of your income to buy an overpriced dwelling.

    China has 64 million empty apartments! Waste of cement and steel. Could have put that to better use – develop a really fast gondola system that goes up to 60 km/h. The fastest gondola today = 20 km/h. A 60 km/h one would solve a lot of problems.

    • Agree 100%, mate. China should have done this differently, they will regret it.

      The difference between their planning-induced bubble and the west’s planning-induced bubbles, is that here, all the capital gains able to be gouged in urban land, fall to private property owners. But in China the government itself is a “vested interest” as they are selling all greenfields land in the first place (and have been doing so ever since the end of Communism). They are therefore revenue-maximising, and there is an upside to this – taxation is lower than it would be otherwise. However, the downside will be more severe, as when their total crash comes, the government will need to find new sources of revenue to replace the sale of price-inflated land, just as the economy is already tight.

    • China has a debt problem, housing is but an outcome. There’s all the space in the world down south, even for 1 billion people, yet hukou reigns supreme.

    • Where’s Pavletich? And is he willing to defend the model pushed which is now a festering swamp? All in the selfless cause of first home buyers.. who are now under water. Has everyone forgotten that Houston was the ideal model par excellence on this blog?

      • What about my model?

        If there is a farm house with a very long driveway, allow another house to be built next to the very long driveway. That would mean no real estate bubble in rural areas at least.

        Heck, allow granny flats to be built in mining towns. A real estate bubble should have never existed in mining towns.

      • Even if the driveway is surrounded by a swamp? Should we build on beaches as well? Pavletich would probably say yes – great amenity until the tidal wave comes.

      • The farm house is surrounded by farm. I never mentioned beach – think of small towns like Traralgon, Vic. I guess you have never lived in rural AUS.

      • You can buy a house block for less than $100k in Korumburra – its 30 minutes to the suburban train line at Pakenam (less).

        House start at about $180k

        https://www.domain.com.au/sale/korumburra-vic-3950/?price=0-350000&ssubs=1&sort=price-asc

        But the fact is people are DESPERATE for the Bogan features and Bogan “lifestyle” that the will pay an enormous sum of money to live on a smaller block in a house which will last half as long because it has cancer causing, silicosis inducing synthetic stone bench tops .

        https://www.domain.com.au/123-gabriella-way-korumburra-vic-3950-2013815959

        There was a long period in Australia when it was uncool to look down on bogans, to maintain the egalitarianism – its destroyed our country – absolute morons need to be publicly humiliated at every BBQ.

        “Who the fuck would live in that hospital waiting room ? Has about as much character as Dr Mengles”

        .

      • Sweeper,

        So you have been lurking all this time around Hugh’s posts waiting for a 1000 year flood?

        LOLOLOLOLOLO

        And the capacity of Houston and surrounding areas to withstand a 1000 year flood proves what?

        If a 1000 year flood hit the Warragamba catchment much of the North West of Sydney would be washed out past West Head. And that assumes the dam holds and does not fail and we know it would.

        And considering how much coal the Hunter River region exports, those living on the Hawkesbury river valley would clearly deserve everything they got because they are both in NSW?

        We all know you don’t actually read any of Hugh’s links or much what of he says, but there is a world of difference between being a proponent of allowing land use flexibility so that farmland can be converted to other uses like housing, offices, retail, industry or transport corridors and zero land use controls at all.

        But please don’t let anyone get in the way of your hysterical straw inferno.

        Looking forward to the Sweeper map of Houston and surrounds with nice red texta showing all the places flooded in a 1000 year flood that should not have been built on.

        You better cross your fingers and hope that every bit of development “approved by Hugh” got flooded or you might be waiting for a 10,000 year flood to have a whinge about them.

      • Like any unaffordable-housing forced-high-density city is going to fare BETTER, duh?

        Especially where the density is the result of forced infill development where the inadequacy of drainage and other infrastructure has been criminally ignored by the Central Planners. Ironically Houston’s intensification and loss of permeable surfaces has been driven by economic evolution rather than top-down “compact city” planning, which means of course that all the lefty hypocrites who want top-down compact city planning will selectively condemn the outcomes there while ignoring them everywhere else.

        There is a lesson to be learned from Houston, regarding GOOD “planning”, which would be about DISALLOWING intensification without first attending to infrastructure – but contemporary urban planning fads of the kind endorsed by Sweeper and his fellow lefty hypocrites, are NOT anything to do with this!

        What will also be interesting is how Houston bounces back from this, compared to, say, Christchurch NZ where the utopian Planners are still bickering over the best use of still-empty blocks of land 6 years after the earthquake.

      • Lol Sophie. Bogans have copped unrelenting shit for 20 years. Yes much of it deserved. But now who’s won? Them. Now those houses are 1.5m+ in Sydney. You’re what I have deemed a ‘temporarily embarrassed inner city terrace owner’. Whilst people like you had their head up their ass they’ve just plodded along through these years and became multi millionaires. Lol lol. Houses like that are an absolute dream for immigrants.

      • Sweeper….

        Its a well known factoid that dogboxes [low quality – standards] and sub prime car loans equals freedumb….

        oo7….

        The information I have provided [repeatedly], which clearly shows a decadal – ideological [propaganda] – march which refused to acknowledge the building risk factors or just hand wave – fob them off. To this your only response is false equivocation about 1K act of dawg year floods, yet even the Noah mythology suggests faithful were informed to make – ***plans*** – for such an event. I would remind that a good chunk of the flood waters are moving through various industrial sites chocker block with all kinds of lovely chem, not to mention depots, garages, back yard sheds, just the vehicles on the road, effluent treatment plants, et al.

        You either don’t have a clue about the scope of this event, nor the long lead times to it or your just engaging in the same tactics that I mention above wrt deflection of responsibility. You do get that knowlage has a responsibility attached to it, right – ????

        disheveled…. el’trumpo seem to be in haste to get moving on when he visited…. the bad ambiance of being surrounded by the obese [too much cheap freedumb food] for his refined NYC tastes methinks….

      • ‘There is a lesson to be learned from Houston, regarding GOOD “planning”, which would be about DISALLOWING intensification without first attending to infrastructure’

        But I thought you and Pavletich took the view that the MUD bond financing system was the most efficient system for infrastructure provision? Speaking of; from S&P
        “One niche that may be affected are so-called Municipal Utility Districts, which issue bonds to finance infrastructure for new housing developments. The debt is repaid through a portion of homeowners’ property taxes. S&P said it rates 564 such districts in the Houston area. If too may people leave after the storm, it could hinder their ability to make debt payments, according to S&P”.
        The free market in action. Issue the sub-prime tax exempt debt, pass proceeds to developers, then when the asset backing turns into a festering swamp, turn to the federal government for a bailout. Where have I seen this before?
        Wasn’t Houston the perfect model for land use and infrastructure provision Phil? I thought it was. Now it is a swamp.

      • Predictable 007 response; but how could the free market have foreseen a thousand year flood?
        From the Economist:
        “Poor planning bears even more blame. Houston, which has almost no restrictions on land-use, is an extreme example of what can go wrong. Although a light touch has enabled developers to cater to the city’s rapid growth—1.8m extra inhabitants since 2000—it has also led to concrete being laid over vast areas of coastal prairie that used to absorb the rain. According to the Texas Tribune and ProPublica, a charity that finances investigative journalism, since 2010 Harris County has allowed more than 8,600 buildings to be put up inside 100-year floodplains, where floods have a 1% chance of occurring in any year. Developers are supposed to build ponds to hold run-off water that would have soaked into undeveloped land, but the rules are poorly enforced. Because the maps are not kept up to date, properties supposedly outside the 100-year floodplain are being flooded repeatedly”.
        So I can’t meet you red texta demand sorry. Because the free market can’t keep it’s maps up to date.

      • You know what the best bit is Sweeper, they pulled their tax pants down for C-corps whilst gouging the unwashed with marginal end taxes, as an offset, lets see how demand will fill that black hole now.

        This is going to be very interesting, after the responses to other such events in the recent past, if huge sums of federal monies get dispersed to Texas to float [snicker] its purist ideological economy…. wellie…. that might put a spanner in the whole propaganda meme. Especially when those monies are vertically looted by the usual suspects that don’t even live in Texas.

        Disheveled…. the purists in D.C. should remain consistent in their ideology and tell Texas to bootstrap itself…. survival of the fittest – !!!!!!!~~~~~

      • Sweeper….

        Nay…. they should as the free market dictates be punished for such wantonness, per the canons for defiling the scriptures holy virtues, failure is not an option, all false prophets should be stoned to death…. Gary North will throw the first stone…

        On the other hand…. sigh… seeing el’trumpo hold up the state flag [like a NYC property developer gives a shit (?????) about Texas (smelly fat ignorant people)] was so Bernays and staged for the consumption of the unwashed [shades of Mars Invades movie white trash ego seeking thingy] its hard not too, its conflicting – feel – altruism for them[.]

        Disheveled… I viscerally “hate” the ideology… the people that get sucked up into it is problematic…

      • The problem for Sweeper and Skippy is that this flood did not just damage properties built without regard to the warnings that some new houses were poorly located. It has damaged plenty of properties that those warnings did not apply to – as we might expect in a storm of historic intensity.

        Of course that is no problem for Sweeper and Skippy because they will argue that every incidence of flooding would have been avoided had Houston only done things “differently”. How differently is the question they will duck and weave or call upon the unicorns and magical thinking to assist.

        One thing we know is that plans based on 1 in 100 year storm intensity would have been no protection.

        No doubt Sweeper recommends that every city should now be rebuilt to a 1 in 1000 years flood standard – in fact he does so explicitly above – apparently only houses built to a lesser standard were flooded in Houston. With such a wonderful standard Sweeper is well positioned to judge any and all.

        For some, resource allocations are easy peasy – just a few extra slices from the magic pudding.

        If the magic pudding was not used clearly we have an outrage on our hands.

      • Meaning what? Why do you come out swinging for Pavletich and the developer lobby? Has a total absence of planning / developer free for all of sprawl into swamp and floodplains without any flood mitigation infrastructure been a good idea? Is that your point?

      • Sweeper,

        “…Why do you come out swinging for Pavletich and the developer lobby?..”

        The only thing I had a swing at was your absurd characterisation of the broad points that Hugh makes and your demand that Hugh answer for all of the damage resulting from a 1000 year flood because he has argued that we need more flexible and responsive regulations in how land is used and that alternative methods of financing infrastructure and servicing land should be considered.

        There is plenty of sensible discussion to be had as to how to achieve a sensible balance between the delivery of affordable housing free hold land to low income earners so they have some choice and are not just forced into high rise rentals run by corporations or the state and ensuring some minimum standards in the quality of that land and associated services.

        No doubt a big statist like you reckons forcing all the ‘little people’ into state housing or corporate rentals is just tops but if you bother to ask what most low income families aspire to it is a bit a turf that they can call their own without being strapped to a massive mortgage. They accept “Council Housing” when any other alternative is denied them.

        Oh sorry that is right you and Skippy reckon my concern about a debt driven asset price monetary model and the debt serfs it creates is just me being a “money crank”.

        Nothing quite like the prescriptions for the little people from their betters.

      • Skippy,

        “..And there is the clarion call of the ranoid free market wanker…
        Disheveled…. get fucked non data driven loon pond boot licker…….”

        LOLOLOLOL

        I was wondering when you would dig deep into your “special reserve” selection of insults. Ayn Rand?

        Yep – I can really see old Randy Aynnie going for the Glass Pyramid and its insistence on a 100% public monopoly over public money and regulation of capital flows and credit creation.

        I think your complicated Banking apologia is much more likely to go down a treat in Galt’s Gulch.

        Anyway where were we?

        Oh yes you were offended at being called a statist?

        My apologies but all we ever hear is your fevered support for big gummint regulation and control. Whether it be the taxi industry, hotels, land development, a public private PPP over public money all we hear is your grim warnings at any proposed modification to centralised systems of regulation and control.

        Lucky Colin Peek, the rebel egg farmer, got egg farming deregulated before Skippy got his hens back laying to government issued quota.

        Anyway if I am the libertarian extremist that pretty much makes you the big gummint lovey.

        Plus the moment anyone even so mentions self determination or personal choice you rise up like shouting spotto “F is for Friedman” and any other insult you can think of to disparage any hint of individual liberty as an alternative to state regulation.

        Cradle to grave management of society by technocrats is what I assumed you meant.

        Isn’t that how your RBA/APRA administered debt driven private bank monetary system works?

        My bad – so you ARE actually a libertarian?

        I always thought there was a strong whiff of small town Republican.

      • Rand would buy your line that bank money is just counterfeiting or fraud – “fake warehouse receipts”.

        “Money is the tool of men who have reached a high level of productivity and a long-range control over their lives. Money is not merely a tool of exchange: much more importantly, it is a tool of saving, which permits delayed consumption and buys time for future production. To fulfill this requirement, money has to be some material commodity which is imperishable, rare, homogeneous, easily stored, not subject to wide fluctuations of value, and always in demand among those you trade with. This leads you to the decision to use gold as money. Gold money is a tangible value in itself and a token of wealth actually produced. When you accept a gold coin in payment for your goods, you actually deliver the goods to the buyer; the transaction is as safe as simple barter. When you store your savings in the form of gold coins, they represent the goods which you have actually produced and which have gone to buy time for other producers, who will keep the productive process going, so that you’ll be able to trade your coins for goods any time you wish.
        Now project what would happen to your community of a hundred hard-working, prosperous, forward-moving people, if one man were allowed to trade on your market, not by means of gold, but by means of paper—i.e., if he paid you, not with a material commodity, not with goods he had actually produced, but merely with a promissory note on his future production. This man takes your goods, but does not use them to support his own production; he does not produce at all—he merely consumes the goods. Then, he pays you higher prices for more goods—again in promissory notes—assuring you that he is your best customer, who expands your market.
        Then, one day, a struggling young farmer, who suffered from a bad flood, wants to buy some grain from you, but your price has risen and you haven’t much grain to spare, so he goes bankrupt. Then, the dairy farmer, to whom he owed money, raises the price of milk to make up for the loss—and the truck farmer, who needs the milk, gives up buying the eggs he had always bought—and the poultry farmer kills some of his chickens, which he can’t afford to feed—and the dairy farmer can’t afford the higher price of alfalfa, so he cancels his order to the blacksmith—and you want to buy the new plow you have been saving for, but the blacksmith has gone bankrupt. Then all of you present the promissory notes to your “best customer,” and you discover that they were promissory notes not on his future production, but on yours—only you have nothing left to produce with. Your land is there, your structures are there, but there is no food to sustain you through the coming winter, and no stock seed to plant.”

        Partial equilibrium confusion, barter model of money.. God she was bad. Not a great one to have in your corner 007

      • I note that amongst all the verbiage you still haven’t explained why you are defending the developer lobby.

      • Sweeper,

        The only people who don’t have a problem with the public giving private banker’s IOUs a special privilege are the Banking Lobby and a few of their useful idiots.

        If Ayn Rand had enough wit to work out the role of private banks in our monetary system was a problem, good luck to her, she at least understood that much.

        But as that extracts points out and which managed to elude your notice, Ayn’s solution is the complete opposite to that recommended by most modern monetary reformers who believe public money should be a 100% fully flexible monopoly of the public sector. Randian’s hate that stuff. If you spent less time trying twist stuff into insults and more time reading you might actually come up with an insult that makes sense.

        But I see that you are now creeping back from your “money crank” preference that we nationalise the private banks. Don’t you think getting right back into bed with the Australian Bankers Association is a rather extreme reaction to having the incoherence of your nationalisation position explained to you?

        Did Anne Bligh give you a hard time at the last debrief?

        As for developers?

        Anyone who gets low income families into decent quality serviced homes they own without a crippling mortgage deserves support.

        There are not many that deliver on that promise in the public or private sector at the moment but what would you care?

        As far as Sweeper is concerned everyone should be living in Council Housing or paying rent to a large corporation as anything else would be extremist big L libertarianism.

        No wonder the old school big gummint lefties could never persuade people to vote for them once people understood what was on offer.

      • She had about as much wit (and grip on reality) as Malcolm Roberts.
        You don’t even address my points. You just mischaracterise other people’s positions and your own whenever it suits your immediate talking point. Have you not argued that banks should be able to issue their own money? Westpac wackos or something?

      • You guys are a bunch of snobs. The McMansion was made to accommodate those who grew up in houses built in the 50s-70s, which were too small for a nuclear family and it’s growing appetite for a modern life. I remember having many fights with my sibling over who got to use the tele.

        The hipsters response was to pretend to live a more minimalist inner city lifestyle. The propaganda showing pictures of some tosser in a room reading Proust and seemingly having little possessions outside an imac and a few mason jars.

        http://annx.asianews.network/sites/default/files/public/uploads/field_s_photos/20151208-minimalist.jpg

      • yeah that person was actually me chinajim!! love that link. its hilarious, seriously we have some of the tackiest and most tasteless modern architecture in the entire world, and that’s saying a lot. lots of our new houses look like fast food franchise buildings or offices.

        i live in “boundary” road, a street in dubbo that intersects a neighbourhood of houses built prior to around 1960 and houses built after, and its night and day difference. house architecture in australia has been in severe decline since about 1962.

    • @Econo-fart [lov that name btw]

      The Boomtown, Flood Town – article is pretty comprehensive and lays out much of the demand pull that enables this sort of agency [beliefs before evidence]. Its not like in a short time span that numerous examples have played out with the same results over and over and in different geographical locations.

      Worsts bit is there is seemingly no fix at the moment due to the “dominate” ideological cage most live in e.g. only the free market can save us. FFS more are concerned about esoteric musings about money, the individual, and how to store any winnings regardless of how they were derived for all time.

      Disheveled…. sadly I think Houston will play out as a slow train wreak and the CYA will be epic to observe… might have to look at it peripherally… might burn the old optics to look directly at it…

      • Tough time to be an ideologue. When all these 1000 year events keep popping up.. every couple of years, to prove you wrong.
        And meanwhile ‘private fiat’ just isn’t doing what prejudice says it’s supposed to.

      • Sweeper…

        I would need you to unpack “private fiat” from your concerted opinion, fiat is law, tho private credit exists [informal law] in many exchanges. How we reconcile all of this is the conversation that seemingly eludes us all.

      • It certainly eludes the two of you.

        Sweeper wants to nationalise a specific industry while denying there is any reason to do so. Don’t blame the banks….just blame Keating.

        Skippy rails on and on about 50 years of neoliberalism but insists like Sergeant Schultz the failures of the banking sector have noooooooothing to do with the institutional monetary and banking regulatory framework changes made during that period. For Skippy it just a conspiracy of rich baddies. Don’t blame the banks just blame the ‘baddies’.

      • BTW I have no dramas with nationalizing common pool resources and services such as health, energy, water, et al, especially since the currant ethical failures of the free market ™ system to deliver both on material benefit and costs [looting for a few].

        Disheveled… you might subside by selling some wellbeing products as you ilk are want….

        PS. I would also add that the opportunism you exhibit when I ask sweeper an intellectual clarification to further the debate and then you pounce on it like its some spanning chasm for you to take advantage of is ethically repugnant…. your such an ass hat oo7.

      • Pigeonholes?

        You build your own holes, I just observe them, so I think Woodpecker is a better choice.

        “…e.g. ideological environmental conditioning of the entire population i.e. banks are just a subset of a much larger social problem…”

        Ummm that sounds like a wordy description of a conspiracy theory.

        No harm in preferring conspiracy theories over simpler and more likely explanations EXCEPT you constantly wail that any attention paid to the structure and regulation of banking and the monetary system or calls for reform is just “money crankery”.

        Even a conspiracy man like yourself must struggle to ignore the role of money – especially public money – and the key institutions concerned with its creation and destruction .

        But then you don’t ignore it do you, because you are Modern Monetary Theory fan – though you seem to be getting cold feet recently and prefer to vanish in the myriad flavours and bottomless depths of post-Keynesian something or other – i.e. It means whatever you want it to mean at any point in time.

        A conspiracy theorist who is into Modern Monetary Theory but reckons talking about reform of the banking and monetary system is money crankery.

        Hard to find a hole for that!

      • private fiat exists only in 007’s imagination.

        “Sweeper wants to nationalise a specific industry while denying there is any reason to do so. Don’t blame the banks….just blame Keating”.

        And this isn’t a fair characterisation. At all. I’ve never called for the nationalisation of the entire industry. Some banks should be publicly controlled, the rest should be highly regulated. And I’ve given reasons why this should be the case; ie. the profit motive clashes with credit provision, risk management and safekeeping of ordinary peoples savings and aggravates boom and bust. You just don’t consider these reasons, because your sole beef is with a shrinking proportion of some banks liabilities which superficially appear to act as means of exchange. And you erroneously think (despite all evidence presented) like Rothbard that this is a fraudulent scheme “counterfeiting of fake warehouse receipts”.
        And unlike you I don’t give a free pass to the bankers. Your message is music to Narev’s ears.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Shite and pointless coment Kodiak,..you don’t even state what your disagreement with him is.

        These 007, Sweeper and Skip “clashes” are often my favourite part of the weekend links coments section and always get me thinking about what and why I hold the opinions that I do.
        I feel I still have much to learn in the the subjects discussed and though I instinctively feel inclined towards Skips and Sweepers points and positions, I find myself really wanting to understand what and why 007 is so single mindedly on about,..Im frustratingly missing something and I don’t know what it. is!.
        Its why I nearly always refrain from commenting on these exchanges.

        I felt his calling out of an “analysis of the instutional process” as a Conspiracy theory, 007s most pleplexing accusation, he is smart enough to know the difference.
        What is the outcome 007 envisages would occur, if what he advocates was to be? What’s his logic?
        Is it a moral position he is taking?
        Why that single minded focus on flogging that one “esoteric mule”,…what’s the motive behind your passion disagreement?

    • That policy seems to be working. Preventing further explosion in specufestors, and allowing prices to correct for ordinary home buyers. Those at the big end of town are being hit and so million dollar plus property owners are feeling the pinch. A million dollar plus property in Scotland is a seriously sturdy piece of real estate.

      • Akin to “see this dick? I can put it anywhere I want and have it come out your right ear!” . Doesn’t necessarily solve any of your health issues, but shows that I can f*ck with you…

      • like everything else, assume you are not hearing the entire story. Smart people have told me that the driver behind demonetization was, as always, politics.

        the primary revenue source of the BJP (Modi’s party) is ‘donations’ from business. that is, large corporates (adani?) give the BJP heaps of money, because everyone knows it is easier to pay upfront for good governance, than run around bribing folks per requirement basis, in India. The numbers I have heard suggest it takes about ~ 2000 crores (rupee’s) to have a national presence in india.

        Ok – so where does the opposition get its money from? The congress is mostly a centre-left party, but you should think of it more in the style of hillary clinton, i.e. pay to play. So who funds the congress. Think of it as an amway style pyramid, congress supports whatever form of control fraud you want, but more social style. So affirmative action, what are called ‘sops’ for minorities etc. From thugs at the village level, to the top of the house, it is a patronage system. Basically feudal right.

        What does have to do with demonetization? It comes down to black money. Organized corporates can donate to modi directly, [it has to do with how Gujarat works, they are a very trading heavy style people]. Congress on the other hand is more ‘old-school’ black money type folk. Demonetization basically screws up the congress’s funding pipelines by iunterfering with the collection of black money.

    • Fiddle with me fanny flaps batman – its almost like –

      The four primary characteristics of money are: (1) durability, (2) divisibility, (3) transportability, and (4) noncounterfeitability.

      is now irrelevant.

      I love how the modern world just redefines things entirely inline with their requirements utterly abandoning all rational logic.

      More loin chaffing.

      • @Haroldus

        3d1k was once told that he can be anything he wanted, so he became a woman astroturfer on MB…

      • ‘with their requirements utterly abandoning all rational logic’ – you’re a chinese troll on a western website, commenting on logic without noting the underlying politics. Why is the CPC allowing standards to fall? Did they not educate you in political thought? Get your shit together.

        Edit: I am just asking for better quality trolling. Is it too much to ask? Take pride in your work son.

  2. Am noticing increasing social problems in our society and fear things will only get worse.Not particularly keen on raising my children in Australia.Any suggestions re alternatives?

  3. First, we model the detection of alerts on the balance sheets of financial institutions in the context of banking supervision. Second, we perform a projection exercise for UK CPI inflation on a medium-term horizon of two years. Here, we introduce a simple training-testing framework for time series analyses. Third, we investigate the funding patterns of technology start-ups with the aim to detect potentially disruptive innovators in financial technology. Machine learning models generally outperform traditional modelling approaches in prediction tasks, while open research questions remain with regard to their causal inference properties.

    Finally! The robots are going to give us rates rises

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/workingpapers/2017/swp674.aspx

  4. ” A “violent hurricane” struck Hispaniola near La Isabela from southwest. It was the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin observed and reported by Europeans. Storm occurred during Christopher Columbus’s second voyage to Hispaniola. Fleet arrived to Saona on day before September eclipse on 14 September(OS)/23 September(NS) and storm occurred shortly after this time. o0

      • Spörer Minimum 1450 1550
        Maunder Minimum 1645 1715
        “The 1715 Treasure Fleet was a Spanish treasure fleet returning from the New World to Spain. At two in the morning on Wednesday, July 31, 1715, seven days after departing from Havana, Cuba, eleven of the twelve ships of this fleet were lost in a hurricane near present-day Vero Beach, Florida. ”
        Dalton Minimum 1790 1820
        Glassberg Minimum 1880 1914
        Modern Maximum 1914 2007

      • Still can’t prove the tree ring claim…

        “With a number of powerful earthquakes recently it once again begs the question, is there a link between seismic activity and solar activity?

        Recently we have witnessed a very unusual, prolonged period of low solar activity. Solar activity though has increased sharply in recent weeks.

        Only yesterday I noticed that the number of recorded sunspots (a crude measure of solar activity) was in excess of 100 – compared with 6 months ago when the number of sunspots was zero.

        In March last year a preliminary study was published from the Space and Science research centre in Florida.

        A review of historical records was performed for 350 years of global volcanic activity (1650-2009) and seismic (earthquake) activity for the past 300 years (1700 to 2009) within the continental United States and then compared to the Sun’s record of sunspots as a measure of solar activity.

        According to this study, there exists a strong correlation between solar activity and the Earth’s largest seismic and volcanic events.

        They found an impressive degree of correlation for global volcanic activity (>80.6%) and for the largest USA earthquakes (100% of the top 7 most powerful) versus solar activity lows.”

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/03/is-solar-activity-to-blame-for.shtml

      • Science Denialists Can’t See The Forest Through The Tree Rings

        Even as the tree-ring proxyindicator expands in size (more samples) and is better understood (from the above mentioned studies) climate science denialists remain entrenched with their assertion that tree rings are bad proxies, or are being used incorrectly. These criticisms are not legitimate critiques of the science, but rather, combine obfuscation and misinformation to muddle and confound thinking about tree rings. An early example of this comes from the kerfuffle known at “climategate” in which electronic communications among climate scientist were stolen and mined for decontextualized quotes that could be used to lie about the science itself and the motivations and activities of the scientists who developed the Hockey Stick curve. Michael Mann chronicles these events in his book “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the front lines.”

        One e-mail Phil Jones of CRU sent to my coauthors and me in early 1999 has received more attention than any other. In it, Jones both made reference to “Mike’s Nature trick” and used the phrase “to hide the decline” in describing a figure … comparing different proxy temperature reconstructions. Here was the smoking gun, climate change deniers clamored. Climate scientists had finally been caught cooking the books: They were using “a trick to hide the decline in global temperatures,” a nefarious plot to hide the fact the globe was in fact cooling, not warming! …

        The full quotation from Jones’s e-mail was …, “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.” Only by omitting the twenty-three words in between “trick” and “hide the decline” were change deniers able to fabricate the claim of a supposed “trick to hide the decline.” No such phrase was used in the e-mail nor in any of the stolen e-mails for that matter. Indeed, “Mike’s Nature trick” and “hide the decline” had nothing to do with each other. In reality, neither “trick” nor “hide the decline” was referring to recent warming, but rather the far more mundane issue of how to compare proxy and instrumental temperature records. Jones was using the word trick [to refer to] to an entirely legitimate plotting device for comparing two datasets on a single graph…

        The reconstruction by Briffa, (see K. R. Briffa, F. H. Schweingruber, P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, S. G. Shiyatov, and E. A. Vaganov, “Reduced Sensitivity of Recent Tree-Growth to Temperature at High Northern Latitudes,” Nature, 391 (1998): 678–682) in particular …

        …was susceptible to the so-called divergence problem, a problem that primarily afflicts tree ring density data from higher latitudes. These data show an enigmatic decline in their response to warming temperatures after roughly 1960, … [Jones] was simply referring to something Briffa and coauthors had themselves cautioned in their original 1998 publication: that their tree ring density data should not be used to infer temperatures after 1960 because they were compromised by the divergence problem. Jones thus chose not to display the Briffa et al. series after 1960 in his plot, “hiding” data known to be faulty and misleading—again, entirely appropriate. … Individuals such as S. Fred Singer have … tried to tar my coauthors and me with “hide the decline” by conflating the divergence problem that plagued the Briffa et al. tree ring density reconstruction with entirely unrelated aspects of the hockey stick.

        Note that there wasn’t a “divergence problem” in Mann et al in the sense of Briffa et al. Mann et al match the observational record very well through 1980, which is the end of the calibration interval (owing to the fact that many proxies drop out after 1980). This is something else the deniers tend to get wrong; they try to conflate the Briffa et al post-1960 divergence problem Mann et al’s hockey stick work. There is no such issue with that work, in that there was no detectable divergence through the end of the calibration interval.

        Related to this, there was a correction of the Bristlecone Pine data for inflated 20th century increase (which was attributed to CO2 fertilization at the time) in MBH99. So we actually applied a downward correction of the trend in those data. McIntyre doesn’t want people to know that. So need to make sure that is crystal clear.

        More recently, climate science denialist JoNova took the new paper by Salzer et al to task using equally mind numbing arguments. JoNova notes that “after decades of studying 800 year old tree rings, someone has finally found some trees living as long ago as 2005. These rarest-of-rare tree rings have been difficult to find … The US government may have spent $30 billion on climate research, but that apparently wasn’t enough to find trees on SheepMountain living between the vast treeless years of 1980 to now.” – snip

        http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/12/17/new-research-on-tree-rings-as-indicators-of-past-climate/

        Disheveled… your time might be better spent at the pub urban bogan or writing shity code between stimulant fueled [ice addict] day trading episodes.

      • Lol climate science denier yes, guilty! What’s climate science? Is it like sociology and psychology and neurology?

        Earth to genius without carbon dioxide you wouldn’t even have tree rings..

      • “Summary
        The sun’s sunspot activity during a grand minimum, paradoxically, plays a significant role in
        producing extreme “ice-age” type cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere while at the
        same time causing arctic regions to become warmer. This activity also can cause conditions that
        increase the short term risks of major, even great earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
        There will be increased risks for the insurance industry during the Eddy Minimum. These are:
        1. The increased incidence of violent storms will lead to higher property claims and increased
        crop insurance claims.
        2. The colder and sometimes very much colder Northern Hemisphere winters will lead to
        higher business costs from lost production.
        3. Longer winters, increased droughts and stalled monsoons will cause significant crop losses.
        4. The continuing high incidence of great earthquakes causing sometimes catastrophic
        property and business losses which will be increased, particularly if they are followed by
        large tsunamis.
        5. Higher mortality rates result from extreme weather, droughts, failed monsoons and seismic
        events. (For example, it was estimated that there were 6000 excess deaths from the March
        2013 cold weather in the UK.)
        The secondary effects of these also have risk consequences. These result from political instability
        caused by:
        1. High food inflation due to failed crops and reductions in grain stores.
        2. High energy price inflation due to the lack of enough energy supplies in some locations
        during periods of excessively cold conditions.
        3. Population concerns about the future leading to political unrest.
        4. Major business disruptions due to extreme weather or major seismic events.
        This paper identifies why the Actuarial Profession should be using space weather and other space
        age tools to identify changes in a number of short-term and long-term risks.”

        https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.actuaries.asn.au/library/events/sum/2013/sum2013paperbrentwalker.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiok4ek0YXWAhWGJ5QKHb6-C1AQFghaMAs&usg=AFQjCNFH6A30NMXUkOAhd5dmYVVZDY5Yyw

      • J. Brent Walker Executive Director, Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty – ???? – really miggie… never knew you were baptist….

        Disheveled… did you join the brotherhood too… Prosperity theology… lulz…

      • Prepared by Brent Walker
        Presented to the Actuaries Institute
        Actuaries Summit
        20-21 May 2013
        Sydney

        The Institute will ensure that all reproductions of the paper acknowledge the
        Author/s as the author/s, and include the above copyright statement.
        Institute of Actuaries of Australia
        ABN 69 000 423 656
        Level 7, 4 Martin Place, Sydney NSW Australia 2000
        t +61 (0) 2 9233 3466 f +61 (0) 2 9233 3446e [email protected] w http://www.actuaries.asn.au

      • “The duration of solar minimum may also have an impact on Earth’s climate. During solar minimum there is a maximum in the amount of Cosmic rays, high energy particles whose source is outside our Solar system, reaching earth. There is a theory that cosmic rays can create nucleation sites in the atmosphere which seed cloud formation and create cloudier conditions. If this were true, then there would be a significant impact on climate, which would be modulated by the 11-year solar cycle.”

        http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-impacts-climate

      • “Using a new technique to measure the sun’s magnetic waves, Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University in England, told the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting last week that sunspot activity could drop as much as 60 percent to 70 percent between 2030 and 2040 from the current cycle.

        She is predicting temperatures will also decline several degrees as they did in the 17th century but is open to the possibility that global warming could offset some of those decreases.

        “It will really be a decrease in the temperatures but how it will be propagated to Earth, only the atmospheric people will tell you. I didn’t do this research,” Zharkova, who co-authored a paper with some of the findings last year in The Astrophysical Journal, told CBS News. “Either way, it looks like the sun gives us the second chance to sort out human-induced emissions while it is in the minimum of activity before any worse case scenarios can come (into) play.””

        https://www.cbsnews.com/news/solar-activity-cold-temperatures-climate-change/

      • “In 1975 the respected meteorologist Robert Dickinson, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, took on the task of reviewing the American Meteorological Society’s official statement about solar influences on weather. He concluded that such influences were unlikely, for there was no reasonable mechanism in sight — except, maybe, one. Perhaps the electric charges that cosmic rays generated in the atmosphere somehow affected how dust and other aerosol particles coalesced. Perhaps that somehow affected cloudiness, since cloud droplets condensed on the nuclei formed by aerosol particles. This was just piling speculation on speculation, Dickinson hastened to point out. Scientists knew little about such processes, and would need to do much more research “to be able to verify or (as seems more likely) to disprove these ideas.” For all his frank skepticism, Dickinson had left the door open a crack. One way or another, it was now at least physically conceivable that changes in sunspots could have something to do with changes in climate. Most experts, however, continued to believe the idea was not only unproven but preposterous. Interest might be piqued when someone reported a new correlation between solar changes and weather, but nobody was surprised when further data and analysis knocked it down.(32*)
        In 1976, Eddy tied all the threads together in a paper that soon became famous. He was one of several solar experts in Boulder, where a vigorous community of astrophysicists, meteorologists, and other Earth scientists had grown up around the University of Colorado and NCAR. Yet Eddy was ignorant of the carbon-14 research — an example of the poor communication between fields that always impeded climate studies. He had won scant success in the usual sort of solar physics research, and in 1973 he lost his job as a researcher, finding only temporary work writing a history of NASA’s Skylab. In his spare time he pored over old books. Eddy had decided to review historical naked-eye sunspot records, with the aim of definitively confirming the long-standing belief that the sunspot cycle was stable over the centuries.”

        https://history.aip.org/climate/solar.htm

      • Abstract
        We analyze weather and climate during the “Year without Summer” 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821) reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features

        Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307728616_Extreme_climate_not_extreme_weather_the_summer_of_1816_in_Geneva_Switzerland [accessed Sep 2, 2017].

      • The sun also plays a powerful role in Earth’s climate. The distance between us and our star is the reason this planet is inhabitable. You don’t need to look farther than the millennia of data stored in ice cores to see how the amount of radiation impacts Earth’s climate. Looking back over hundreds of thousands of years, we see that even small changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt have dramatic consequences.”

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/19/space-weather-forecasters-remain-vigilant-in-2017-for-potentially-crippling-solar-storms/

      • Article written: 12 Jun , 2008

        “So what’s up with our Sun? Is it going through a depression? It seems as if our closest star is experiencing a surprisingly uneventful couple of years. Solar minimum has supposedly passed and we should be seeing a lot more magnetic activity, and we certainly should be observing lots more sunspots. Space weather forecasts have been putting Solar Cycle 24 as a historically active cycle… but so far, nothing. So what’s the problem? Is it a ticking bomb, waiting to shock us with a huge jump in solar activity, flares and CMEs over a few months? Or could this lack of activity a prelude to a very boring few years, possibly leading the Earth toward another Ice Age?

        It’s funny. Just as we begin to get worried that the next solar maximum is going to unleash all sorts of havoc on Earth (i.e. NASA’s 2006 solar storm warning), scientists begin to get concerned as to whether there is going to be a solar maximum at all. In a conference last week at Montana State University, solar physicists discussed the possibility that the Sun could be facing a long period of calm, leading to the concern that there could be another Maunder Minimum”

        https://www.universetoday.com/15006/where-are-the-sunspots-are-we-in-for-a-quiet-solar-cycle/

      • . Finally we can state that the EOF1 in the neg-
        ative phase controlled notably major floods during the
        last stages of the Little Ice Age (1817–1851 and 1881–
        1927 flood clusters)
        , while the positive EOF1 prevailed
        during the last 4 warmer decades (flood clusters from
        1977 to present).

        Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of
        low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in
        Switzerland
        J. C. Peña1
        , L. Schulte2
        , A. Badoux3
        , M. Barriendos4
        , and A. Barrera-Escoda1
        1Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
        2Department of Physical and Regional Geography and ICREA, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
        3Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements Research unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
        WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
        4Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3) and Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
        Correspondence to: L. Schulte ([email protected])
        Received: 2 December 2014 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 19 December 2014
        Revised: 5 May 2015 – Accepted: 20 August 2015 – Published: 10 September 2015

      • ” It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century and enter into a grand solar minimum. Some argue that Earth’s climate is the result of cyclical processes of varying wavelengths. Dr. Norman Page, for example, attributes climate changes to natural (60-year and millennial-scale) cycles of solar activity (and cloud cover changes), and he notes that the rise in solar activity since the depths of the Little Ice Age has been the predominant climate driver. The millennial peak in solar activity occurred in about 1991, with the corresponding (lagged) temperature peak in 2004. Within the next few years the temperature is projected to drop significantly, he states.”

        You’re a fraud who doesn’t understand anything you copypasta – and you’re always wrong…

        http://www.solarancestors.com/blog/intensifying-cosmic-rays-grand-solar-minimum

    • I have a new-found respect for you Migtronix.

      This is not The Onion, but recommendations from the pages of the IPCC, I sense an agenda:

      “Reduced gender inequality & marginalization in other forms…. Improved access to & control of local resources; Manipulation of disturbance regimes; Community-based natural resource management…. Provisioning of adequate housing,… Micro finance; Disaster contingency funds; Cash transfers; Public-private partnerships…Patent pools & technology transfer…: Awareness raising & integrating into education; Gender equity in education; Extension services; Sharing indigenous, traditional & local knowledge; Participatory action research & social learning; Knowledge-sharing & learning platforms… behavioural shifts, or institutional & managerial changes that produce substantial shifts in outcomes. (under”practical” subheading) Individual & collective assumptions, beliefs, values & worldviews influencing climate-change responses.”

  5. The Bit Bomb. An essay on Claude Shannon, the man who figured out information for the computing age.
    https://aeon.co/essays/how-a-polymath-transformed-our-understanding-of-information

    His workmate at Bell Labs, Richard Hamming, wrote one of the best books on being a successful researcher in science and engineering. Even if you don’t fall into that field, it is still a remarkable book by a remarkable man.
    http://worrydream.com/refs/Hamming-TheArtOfDoingScienceAndEngineering.pdf

    Hamming’s background is that he thought he was pretty good, until he got assigned to the Manhattan Project and was spending time with Einstein, Feynman and co. So he reflected upon things and the above is what he learnt over his career as a pioneering computer scientist.

      • No problemo. Have a read yourself. Even if, like me, the maths is beyond you, there’s still a lot of good stuff in there.

      • Yup, doubt my maths is up to it although said nephew is, for a 19yo, surprisingly patient at teaching maths concepts, so I guess I can always ask his help.

    • if you have a chance, have a look at the annotated turing, by charles petzold. It was only after reading this book that I started to get math. My circumstances were different (elec engn + cs double + finance masters), so in theory my math is super good. in practice however, I never understood how math itself works. I think you’d really enjoy it.

  6. The Traveling Wilbur

    So GDP is out on Wednesday.

    Annualised growth of a middling 1.9% or so, and AUD to therefore rocket to .83? Quite commensurately of course…

    God forbid Lowe makes any speeches any time soon. Oh, wait…

  7. While waiting for a coffee this week I flicked through the Australian and read a neat little piece on land tax by Adam Creighton. The title was ‘Land’ Levy: An efficient and moral revenue raiser’. With UE away it didn’t make it up on MB, can anyone access The Australian and whack it up here?
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/adam-creighton/land-levy-an-efficient-and-moral-revenue-raiser/news-story/752931336558bee18b8945f9ff6808db

    I wondered why Uncle Rupert would allow such a piece in his paper. Is the Coalition thinking about it and trying to soften up a bit of the base? Was it a choice between the economic rent of home owners or that of the corporations, so it is the home owner they will go after? Is Adam Creighton allowed to write cute little pieces that stray from the narrative on the slow news days?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      No need to make excuses mate. It’s alright. We know you were only looking at it for the pictures. ; )

    • “While waiting for a coffee this week I flicked through the Australian….”

      oooooooooohhhhhh lah di dah!

    • Land levy an efficient and moral revenue raiser
      The landlord “renders no service to the community, he contributes nothing to the general welfare, he contributes nothing to the process from which his own enrichment is derived”. Who said this? Surely a left-wing propagandist.

      The person goes on: “Roads are made, streets are made, services are improved, electric light turns night into day … and all the while the landlord sits still. Every one of those improvements is ­affected by the labour and cost of other peoples and the taxpayers.”

      Actually, it was conservative Winston Churchill, speaking in the House of Commons in 1909. Scion of a powerful landowning family, he would have had personal insight into the level of ­effort and innovation required to inherit and manage property.

      Churchill was, however, only making, colourfully, one of the most powerful arguments in ­economics. Taxing the unimproved value of land, at a low flat annual rate, is the most efficient, and even moral, way of raising revenue.

      It’s efficient because taxing land won’t reduce its quantity. Plus, land can’t be hidden or shifted. Sydney’s eastern suburbs can’t be towed to the ­British Virgin ­Islands and putting it in a trust or bucket company would be about as helpful as a giant tarpaulin.

      It’s moral because, as Churchill said, taxing windfall gains is better than taxing individual’s actual­ ­effort.

      Taxing land is likely to lower rents, too, by bringing swaths of unoccupied accommodation to market.

      About half of Chinese investors in Australian property, for ­instance, are leaving their properties vacant, according to a recent survey by UBS.

      In a world of increasingly malleable and mobile income — and indeed workers themselves — these arguments have never been so relevant.

      Increasingly, penal marginal rates of income tax will slowly crush Australia’s economy, fuelling a massive tax avoidance ­industry and pushing more smart people and ideas offshore.

      “A land tax is not only harder to avoid and more efficient, but also surely more equitable, since the ‘social dividend’ that accrues to land owners, particularly in our major cities, simply via the effluxion of time as growth occurs around them, is really impossible to justify,” said former Treasury secretary and renowned conservative John Stone, in a recent interview with The Australian.

      In the four years to last March, the value of Australian households’ land (excluding the houses and apartments that sit on it) has surged 52 per cent to $4.7 trillion. For context, that’s about eight years of total federal income tax receipts.

      A flat 1 per cent land tax, which might cost an average Sydney homeowner about $7500 a year, would raise enough cash to ­abolish income tax for about 70 per cent of taxpayers, or, alternatively, hugely reduce marginal ­income tax rates. Depending on his circumstances, the Sydney­sider would be better off.

      Isn’t it silly to squeeze the pips out of workers earning more than $180,000, who may well have little wealth to their name, yet leave massive, unexpected appreciations entirely untaxed?

      If a federal income-land tax swap is too ambitious, at least state governments should follow the ACT’s lead and shift away from stamp duties on property, which massively hobble the ­efficient allocation of assets.

      A credit for any stamp duty already paid would ensure no one is taxed twice. Perhaps buyers could also be given a choice between paying stamp duty on their new property, or land tax, after which time the property would forever be a “land tax” property. Asset-rich, cash-poor landowners could elect to pay out of their estate.

      “If you reduce stamp duty and had a broadbased land tax we would encourage the transfer of property, there’s no doubt about that,” said NSW’s new Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, when he was finance minister. “You have retirees living in these five-bedroom homes by themselves while there are people with three children trying to buy into the property market,” he added, promisingly.

      He’s right. A report commissioned by the NSW Treasury last year estimated that abolishing stamp duty — presently about $42,000 on a median Sydney house worth $1.02 million — would boost the number of property transactions in the state by 25 per cent, freeing up spare ­bedrooms equivalent to 70,000 houses.

      “The economic case for taxing land is very strong,” concluded Sir James Mirrlees, a Nobel prize-winning economist, in a recent British tax review.

      So, you say, if a comprehensive land value tax is so good, then why don’t we have one?

      Here’s a clue: the burden of a land tax falls entirely on landowners, who naturally tend to be more politically influential than their raw numbers would suggest. ­The Treasury analysis referenced above, conducted by Peter Abelson, found house prices would fall 6 per cent over the ­medium term in response to a 0.7 per cent annual land tax (enough to replace stamp duty ­entirely).

      Shifting to land tax won’t be easy in a country where about two million people own at least one investment property, even if, in reality, the hit to prices would manifest itself in slower appreciation. But as for smokers, it’s never too late to quit.

      Speculating on land values, which has become a national pastime, isn’t especially productive. It’s hard to see how it will help Australia sustain its prosperity into the 21st century, especially, as is likely, the value of our resources exports starts to fall again.

      Fortunately, both major political parties could get behind a land tax. Mr Perrottet and Mr Churchill’s insights aside, a Liberal Party that wants to tax effort and innovation less might have to tax land more.

      As for the Labor Party, a comprehensive flat rate tax on the unimproved land was part of its platform from 1891 to 1905. The founders of the party were well aware that inherited land escaped taxation.

      Churchill was making an argument for the common good that probably didn’t suit his or his electors’ short-term personal ­financial circumstances.

      It would be good to see more of that today.

    • So you don’t regularly read The Australian yet you know its narrative? Or you do read it regularly so why the qualifier about waiting for a coffee?

      • Media outlets are generally like tv serials or movie franchises, you get gist of them without having to dive in every day. I do flick through the Australian if it’s lying around, but I don’t have an online sub, that’s why I asked if someone else could post the piece. The piece definitely caught me by surprise. More so than Bangladesh winning the first test. If it was in The Guardian I wouldn’t have attempted to guess at ulterior motives but the News Corp. stable isn’t exactly subtle with who they view as the heroes and villians of Australia and often come across as a pro Liberal party pamphlet.

  8. The Traveling Wilbur

    So did anyone catch all of yesterday’s and today’s ISM releases?

    Astounding. Almost gave me a parox-YSM. Shame no one in the US is getting any new jobs to get the income needed to buy the nice shiny things most of those ISMs represent… not anymore anyway…

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Nah mate. No giant pineapple shaped object.

        No queue of druggies around the local welfare inner-city job-provider-skills-assessment offices either.

        And there would be more apartment buildings with most of their lights off too.

      • I wonder what the impact will be. There will be a whole ton of vested interests from banks to developers to RE agents wishing that the media would just STFU about this issue. It is not really the buildings that are currently occupied that are going to unravel things, since that problem has been shifted onto the poor punters, but rather the ones under construction with OTP contracts which have yet to settle. I have no doubt that this stuff is being bolted to current developments even as we sit here and post on MB today. If any of those buildings are denied occupancy certificates then the settlement money doesn’t come in and that might be $50 – $100 million dollars of outstanding loans that suddenly can’t be repaid, plus the deposits going back to the purchasers.

      • And every developer using this material has known full well that it was inferior, but of course was just looking to boost their margins. The lobbying of Goverment to change the laws in the last 2 years was just to cover their own arses.

        Should be thrown in jail the lot of em’.

      • vertical deep fryers – if only real people did not live in them I would laugh so hard. Also, the non existent strata rules that allow dodgy wiring to be added to those apartments in order to accommodate 12 people inside 1 bedder makes these vertical deep fryers super horny and ready to go off any time.

    • Have no idea if this has been covered however there is simply ZERO DOUBT that the councils (government) is 100% responsible for building standards and safety.

      It has simply become entirely accepted amongst these “tertiary” levels of governance to sell out what ever you can for quick cheap “study tours” and ecumenical grass roots “initiatives”. (I now understand the suicide rates in this country).

      To wit (as MB would say) – (ergot, behoves, albeit – whatever) – the first one of these buildings to burn down will see the local councillors themselves – yes, PERSONALLY, dragged before the courts on CRIMINAL charges.

      I have absolutely no doubt about this and its time they realised this – or at least someone made them “remotely” aware of their levels of risk danger.

      If a building burns, people die, and it was known that this building had dodgey cladding, and the local council had taken NO ACTION – then they will be hailed off to prison.

      No ifs, no buts.

      All of a sudden the warm glow of immunity is going to become a noose.

      • I agree 100% that this is what SHOULD happen.

        The councils will, however, say that they rely on the private certifiers i.e. they are no more than a collector and stamper of bits of paper. My concern is that right now builders and developers up and down the eastern seaboard are photo shopping fake invoices from companies that sell non combustible cladding see e.g.

        Aluminium Composite Panels (ACP) – Fire Risk – Australia & New Zealand

        to hand to the certifiers and cover up the fact that they used flammable stuff from China.

        As I mentioned above, the loose thread in this whole disgusting business is the occupancy certificate, if that doesn’t come through the whole project dies and the lender to the project will wear it all (or high rise Harry if he is doing a self financed job). Conversely, if that certificate is issued, even with the sorts of photoshop fraud which are without any doubt being perpetrated right now, the problem is with the purchasers. Even if they discover it before the defects period expires, the system is still stacked overwhelmingly against them in terms of getting the problem fixed.

        I would so love to see some of the current developments get caught in time and fall over. Apart from the fact that it would save lives, the scum who profit from financing, building and selling overpriced poor quality dogboxes need to be taught a lesson

      • I would so love to see some of the current developments get caught in time and fall over. Apart from the fact that it would save lives, the scum who profit from financing, building and selling overpriced poor quality dogboxes need to be taught a lesson

        1 can only dream, I do hope it sends a few of these bastards under. But no doubt some poor “investor” is gonna wear it.

      • @d672c, problem is in the ACT, private certifiers can sign off on buildings containing the flammable cladding, it’s not illegal. The ACT Government, a wholly owned subsidiary of Developer Inc., are mearly “watching developments”. If you want to know a property related rort, take a look at the building inspection report scam which is compulsory here in the ACT. The report for our house was not worth a pinch of shit, there were that many exemptions and the inspector missed a bunch of shit that I’ve since picked up and I don’t consider myself to be remotely handy.

      • @Wing Nut – I agree. The system is a f#cking disgrace.

        If I were a OTP purchaser in a high rise development currently being built, I would be shirt fronting the certifier and stating in words of one syllable or less that if he has signed off and the joint turns out to have this flammable crap in it, then there won’t be any place in Australia safe enough for him to hide. Fortunately I am just a bitter looser (q.v. ‘loser’) renter destined never to own a flammable dog box.

    • It’s investor grade product. No one is actually meant to live there, you silly sausage. Apart from young people obviously. Who don’t count.

    • I understand the concept of arms length responsibility – however – it is still their responsibility and ANY court of law will agree on that. Simply handing over the action of signing off does NOT absolve them of their responsibility and hence accountability in class action negligence law suits.

      It simply does not.

      This has been proven time and again – however new people come into the job, are sold the same contractor spiel – arms length, accountability, absolve responsibility, high quality blah blah – then its tested and its always the same.

      If you are the responsible authority – you are the responsible authority. You either cede that position entirely along with the proceeds to another authority – but merely employing someone to do your job does not remove that same responsibility.

      If it is my job to ensure that levy does not break and flood the town, and I put a small child on the job and fail to ensure that not only CAN do the job, but IS doing the job, and reliably, comprehensively, and repeatedly ensure that child is doing their job then I am responsible for the levy breaking.

      If the councils can prove that they were actively monitoring, checking and doing everything in their power to ENSURE those who were contracting to their jobs and these roles were being secretively undermined and there was no reasonable manner for the councils to KNOW that these dodgey dealings were going on – then they may have a leg to stand on.

      So – going forward – we KNOW that these buildings are not safe. And the councils have done – NOTHING.

      Any building that goes up – anywhere in this country – the councillors of that ward will be held personally responsible unless they have taken action to remove people from those buildings or remove the cladding.

      No ifs. No buts.

      .

      • Someone should print a few thousand flyers and letterbox drop in all the new buildings explaining this to all the people living there. Government wouldn’t be able to sweep it under the rug then…

      • Yeah but…. private industry has taken over the public sphere, revolving door thingy.

        Disheveled…. most polies are just door mats for industry these days… look at Anna.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That’s not too far from work. Might pop in for a visit.

      *practices loud and obnoxious voice*

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Perhaps the government should leave this coffee shop chain in the programme as it appears to run internships on how to steal wages from young kids .
      …..this is a skill set more and more required to operate in business in the new Straya and will lead to jobs and growth ……just dont expect to get an actual wage …….that’s not factored into the business plans .

  9. GunnamattaMEMBER

    Royal Commission now……

    ‘A new frontier’: The little-known alternative to the 457 foreign worker visa

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/a-new-frontier-the-littleknown-alternative-to-the-457-foreign-worker-visa-20170901-gy8p0j.html

    A little-known visa category has become a “new frontier for unscrupulous employers” looking to exploit cheap foreign labour at the expense of Australian workers.

    The 400 visa, designed to parachute international specialists into short-term roles, has emerged as a “sleeper” category with looser restrictions than the 457 foreign worker visa, which was recently abolished by the Turnbull government in a high-profile “Australians first” crackdown.

    In the past decade, hundreds of thousands of workers have been employed on short stay visa categories, including the 400’s predecessor the 456, with at least 11 cases before the Fair Work Ombudsman. But experts warn despite the examples of exploitation, the Department of Immigration and Border Protection has little detail on the employment of these workers.

    Among them, Chinese labourers flown in to dismantle the former Mitsubishi car plant in the Adelaide Hills paid $1.90 an hour, Filipino metal fabricators paid $4.90 an hour to install animal feed mills in NSW, and nine Indonesian timber workers flown into Tasmania and promised bonuses when they returned home.

    “The fact that a couple of exploitation cases exist really shows that there is a real opportunity for this visa to be exploited,” said Joanna Howe, an associate Professor in Law at the University of Adelaide.

    “They have no local or community networks, they have very little English, it’s very difficult for them to even know that the fair work ombudsman exists.”

    Documents seen by Fairfax Media show 400 visas are sometimes approved within 24 hours with seemingly minimal oversight. Despite the government’s requirement that the work be “highly specialised”, the visa has been used to fill semi-skilled positions for which apparently qualified Australian applicants were available.

    In 2015, Australia hosted the Cricket World Cup but local camera crews with decades of broadcasting experience were snubbed by the International Cricket Council for a crew from Singapore. In the same year the Spirit of Tasmania employed 44 per cent of its workers on 400 visas for a $31.5 million refurbishment.

    In several cases, multinational shipping companies are employing overseas engineers on 400 visas for Australian work despite the availability, according to the union, of local specialists searching for employment and being knocked back when they apply.

    The revelations appear to challenge the department’s eligibility criteria, which say the visa “encapsulates highly specialised skills, knowledge or experience that can assist Australian business and cannot reasonably be found in the Australian labour market”.

    • Felt sick in the stomach when I read this news. Yet another reason wages aren’t rising but corporate profits have exploded.

      Why the fuck employ Australians and pay fair wages/super when you can import people to work for $1.90 hour?

      Crazy shit.

      Plain and simple – Australian’s are being knocked back for jobs that are stitched-up by/for cheap foreign labour.

      Ban ALL visa worker exploitation.

      If you can’t find the expertise locally, INVEST IN EDUCATING/TRAINING AUSTRALIANS FOR THE FUCKING WORK and PAY THEM APPROPRIATELY.

      • Among them, Chinese labourers flown in to dismantle the former Mitsubishi car plant in the Adelaide Hills paid $1.90 an hour,

        We may not know whether God exists, but he sure as shit has a wicked sense of humour. This is some next-level shit right here.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That explains why so much media time was given to 457 scams. The real rorting is going on somewhere else. Always look at what the other hand is doing.

      This country is a disgrace. Burn it to the ground.

    • And what was the LNP’s response; blame Labor even thought the useless pack of fucktards had four years to fix it.

    • $1.90 is well below minimum daily wages in China, so we might now have the lowest legal wages in the world.

    • No royal commission! Just charge $140/day for each rotten work visa. Jesus Christ.

      And $100k upfront for each PR visa. Portugal has a shrinking population!

  10. In Other News: AUSTRALIAN HOUSING CRISIS TO DRASTICALLY WORSEN AS CHINESE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE GRANTED STUDENT VISA
    #InOtherNews #BubbleBot

  11. When people complained about the NBN, I used to think privately “Surely it can’t be that bad”. I hereby apologise to those people.

    Yes we were forcibly transferred too. Slower than our old service. And regular outbreaks of no service at all.

    @annabellcrabb when governments can’t even keep their propagandists happy… #LNP is so toast

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What annoys me Migs is that I was conned. I honestly thought St Mal would sneak through a decent NBN behind our Tony’s back. Nope, Mal deliberately destroyed it and set us back twenty years.

      I can’t work out why. What does he get out of it? Who’s paid him to destroy it? It can’t just be Rupes because in the long run he’ll suffer too.

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        “What does he get out of it?”

        We may find out in years to come. All that I know is that the rollout of the NBN in my area, thankfully delayed so far from 2017 to 2019/2020 (and hopefully, it never happens), will likely be the “kiss of death” for my email-based business. Thanks for that, Mal – the bloke that made his first fortune from flogging OzEmail, and should obviously know better.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Especially if they use $5/h imported geeks on dodgy visas. Massive geek shortage in Straya you know.

      • Ah that would be justice. Send around people with poor English to help boomer scum with an nbn they ruined.

        I should be able to sort myself out but I’m definitely gonna say I don’t know nuffin if any boomer friends want free help.

      • It’s a collective mindset of the LNP; we didn’t have that fast interweb thingy in the 50’s when Australia was great, why do we need it now? Remember Poodle Pyne’s insightful view of fast internet: “(Australian’s) simply didn’t need the speeds that Labor was promising. You will be able to watch five full-length movies in the same household if you all want to at the same time. Which is a lot of movies. That’s a lot of televisions.”

      • Did a deal with the devil didn’t he?

        Agreed to kill off the NBN to protect Murdoch’s media interests, in return for positive coverage. Or is that just a fanciful conspiracy theory?

        Edit: on the long run, Rupes would want to sweat his assets I reckon just like any business owner.

    • Ironically, most of those that complain are the ones that actually bilived the Libs that labour’s vision was an overkill. It also shows how backward we are as we could not grasp the possibilities real nbn will bring and consequences if we don’t build this crucial infrastructure.
      I was laughed when I was arguing that the Libs plan will end being more expensive and outdated before its completion.
      Fck them all. We have what we voted for. I still remember listening to one of Alan Jones “experts” on his talk show telling listeners that we don’t need fibre and all we need is better wi-fi because her kids keep telling that at home. These are the experts we took advise from.

      • I still meet people who believe that wifi will meet all of our needs and that all fttp internet will ever be used for is watching videos. They look at what they use the internet for today and then generalise that to be everyone’s needs for now and forever. We are stuffed.

      • @mig – she wast confusing wifi as alternative to fibre. Wi-fi as the wireless signal her kids needed for their connections inside their house.

      • Comment wasn’t aimed at you, but many around here have a hard on for tethering. I promise you Labor would have been just as bad, we suck at everything and Conroy was a tech buffoon

      • Yeah – wireless – horrible

        Wait, what ? Weren’t you arguing a few weeks back that FTTH is pointless because everyone consumes stuff over slow wireless anyway ?

      • Yes smithy this horrible thing

        World’s fastest wireless network hits 100 gigabits per second, can scale to terabits

        So slow. Yuck

      • Because nothing has ever been comercialied that started out in lab. But, please, tell me again about the physics of tethered technology – after all the universe is made out of wires holding everything together for maximum efficiency…

      • Because nothing has ever been comercialied that started out in lab.

        LOL. You never consider the context of anyone else’s statements when replying to them, why should anyone deign to consider the context of yours ?

        Case in point:

        But, please, tell me again about the physics of tethered technology – after all the universe is made out of wires holding everything together for maximum efficiency…

        Indeed. That’s why wireless is the dominant technology for server and storage networking in all the world’s biggest datacentres. Not a fibre or copper cable to be seen.

        I hear Dell, HPE, et al are even going to start eliminating cables and backplanes from their servers. You know, because wifi is so much cheaper, faster and more reliable.

    • The old infrastructure is crumbling, so moving is inevitable. I have had 2 outages of old ADSL in the last month or so – both caused by faults out in the telstra pipes. One was a total disconnect, and the other was a drop to 1Mb/s. I got a call from the iinet guy afterwards who was actually very helpful. Around Gladesville the plan is FTTN, which makes sense because Victoria Rd is like a nightmare of old WWII buildings. He was saying that the node will be VDSL2+ and use the existing copper pairs into the rat dumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VDSL This looks OK at a top speed of 300/100, so provided the optical trunk down to the node is fat, it should work.

      Here is the kicker. The last leg is the copper pair into the building. In my building, that is measuring 0.5Mohms to ground, so there is no way those high bit rates will get through. 0.5 meg means that the cable snaking its way through the stygian depths of old foundations has stuffed insulation and is probably water logged or rat-chewed. This is the elephant in the NBN room. Who is going to pay for the massive job of rewiring old buildings? Is it a good idea to just replace the copper?

    • NBN ? For what ? I thought all the cool kids these days only used mobile devices with 4G.

      Who is your RSP and what’s your sync speed ?

      • 5G – in a real country…

        No such thing as 5G yet. Standards aren’t due to be finalised until 2019.

        Just tested fast.com on my mobile:
        70Mps

        So why do you have NBN ?

      • I don’t where did I say I have NBN? Those were Crabb’s tweets

        Ah, of course, as is obvious from the quotes around them.

        Kind of like how skippy likes to copypasta whole articles without giving any indication he’s done so.

        No wonder you guys get on so well. Two peas from the same pod.

        You’ll have to tell these guys they’re not getting 5G

        I’m sure it’s very fast, but the fact remains today that “5G” exists only in draft documents and marketing material.

        Wouldn’t have thought you’d be such a sucker for the latter.

      • Or, you know, it was obvious from the keeping propagandists happy line that apparently only you missed 🙄🙄

        “marketing material” that’s all a standard is… You say you comply with it for marketing purposes – welcome to engineering in the real world….

      • “marketing material” that’s all a standard is… You say you comply with it for marketing purposes – welcome to engineering in the real world….

        LOL.

        Yes, of course, that’s why you never have cases of “standards compliant” solutions that only work with one vendors implementation of the standard. I mean, I’m sure the kit AT&T is rolling out for these trials will work just as well on the other side of the country in a different telco’s “5G trials”, right ? And it’ll keep working with the real 5G network that gets rolled out once the trials are completed ?

        Just like Java: “write once, run anywhere, forever.”

        Maybe you should have read the article to the end:

        AT&T is making noise about this being a 5G trial, but you need to remember to take that with a pinch of salt. The 5G standard has not yet been finalized, and 5G is about way more than beaming internet directly into your home.

      • Bit cranky today drsmity….

        Information, use it or not, complaining about proforma is diversionary or OCD overwhelming the information.

        disheveled…. one would think the link would be a hint.

      • Bit cranky today drsmity….

        Not even a little bit. Just enjoying the lulz before heading off to soccer.

        Most people genuinely interested in discussing their ideas understand presentation is as important as content.

      • Here’s some more LOLZ

        “In China 5G trials, ZTE hits massive 19 Gbps network speeds
        In recent 5G speed tests, telecom provider ZTE was able to set a new industry record in terms of network throughput, exceeding 19 Gbps.”

        I’m sure they really give a fuck about the Standard being implemented… Lolz

        http://www.techrepublic.com/article/in-china-5g-trials-zte-hits-massive-19-gbps-network-speeds/

        I’m sure your shitty FTTH was going to do better than 19Gps

      • It was doing 10Gb half a decade ago.
        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/broadband/9699121/BT-unveils-10-gigabit-broadband.html

        Verizon reckon scaling to 40-80Gb is easy (not a startup though, so what would they know).
        http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Verizon-Testing-Ten-Gigabit-Broadband-Internet-Service-134773

        Look, in Salisbury NC I can get 10Gb broadband today for $400/mo.
        http://fibrant.solutions/Residential/Internet

        Where can I get my 19Gb/s mobile broadband today ? What’s it cost ?

      • You should have kept reading the article

        “Verizon’s announcement comes on the heels of Comcast’s claim it will be offering 2 Gbps service to 18 million users before the end of the year (though it will cost $300 a month with a $1000 install fee, and we’ve yet to see any customers successfully connected). “

      • Lazy people some times need everything spoon feed them too.

        Disheveled… have fun at sports, sons team took the minor club premiership, scored a barging try with about 4 kids attached from 6m out. Only 3 points in it at the end. Next weekend is last grammar game against BGS.

      • Real country

        “Finnish firm Elisa says it has achieved a 1.9 gigabit-per-second (Gbps) speed on a test network, claiming this is the fastest on record.
        The hyper-fast mobile internet service could theoretically download a Blu-ray film in 44 seconds.
        But analysts are sceptical that such a feat could currently be replicated within a live, real-world network.
        Elisa said it used technology provided by Chinese telecoms giant Huawei to deliver a mobile network speed that edged close to the 2Gbps threshold.

        By comparison, its fastest commercial network speed is 300Mbps – less than a sixth as fast.
        The corporation’s chief executive, Veli-Matti Mattila, said: “We know there hasn’t been a speed this high announced by any other network.”
        In February however, one university research team – not affiliated with a network provider – managed to achieve a 5G mobile speed of 1 terabit per second (Tbps), which is more than fifty times faster than Elisa’s 4G speed.
        In terms of commercial applications, Mr Mattila told the BBC that Elisa is planning to roll out a premium 1Gbps network in Finland within the next “two to three years”.”

        http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37221565

    • Wirelss. LMFAO.

      Anyone who says that doesn’t understand the basics of technology, you should go back to smugly scoffing at people who don’t understand Sine, or denying climate science.

      Fucking wireless. Holy shit. There really isn’t much of a bigger neon sign smack bang on the forehead of the ignorant Luddite than “wireless”.

      Anyway NBN

      https://twitter.com/Jbyway/status/897770308152643584

      • “smack bang on the forehead of the ignorant Luddite than “wireless”.”
        What about one that says “tether me”? Good luck selling that to the kiwis when you get there

      • ” the gleaming but quiet headquarters of a startup called Starry—above the din of Boston’s Downtown Crossing—40 engineers are toiling to achieve a disruptive vision: delivering Internet access to apartments and businesses, cheaply and wirelessly, nearly 100 times faster than the average home connection today.

        The idea of gigabit-per-second wireless service to homes has been around for at least 15 years, but technology advancements make the idea far more plausible today. The high-capacity wireless technology involved—known by a chunky piece of jargon, “millimeter wave active phased array”—is now much less expensive and bulky thanks to advances in microelectronics and software.”

        Ignorant jerk off

        https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601442/wireless-super-fast-internet-access-is-coming-to-your-home/

      • The best part about startups is how they never fail to successfully bring a product to market in a timely manner.

      • And just for you

        “The unusual “gagging order” could have been issued because the results of CLOUD are really, really boring, muses Calder. Or, it could be that the experiment invites a politically unacceptable hypothesis on climate.

        The CLOUD experiment builds on earlier experiments by Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark, who demonstrated that cosmic rays provide a seed for clouds. Tiny changes in the earth’s cloud cover could account for variations in temperature of several degrees. The amount of Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei (UFCN) material depends on the quantity of the background drizzle of rays, which varies depending on the strength of the sun’s magnetic field and the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field”

        You keep naming yourself after mathematicians but you don’t the difference between sine and cosine…

        https://m.theregister.co.uk/2011/07/18/cern_cosmic_ray_gag/

        <! – – < [CDATA[

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        +
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        //]] – – >

      • Climate Myth…

        It’s the sun
        “Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests solar activity is influencing the global climate causing the world to get warmer.” (BBC)

        Over the last 35 years the sun has shown a cooling trend. However global temperatures continue to increase. If the sun’s energy is decreasing while the Earth is warming, then the sun can’t be the main control of the temperature.

        Figure 1 shows the trend in global temperature compared to changes in the amount of solar energy that hits the Earth. The sun’s energy fluctuates on a cycle that’s about 11 years long. The energy changes by about 0.1% on each cycle. If the Earth’s temperature was controlled mainly by the sun, then it should have cooled between 2000 and 2008.

        https://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

      • Skeptical science is fake news not science. If global warming is caused by CO2 it should be increasing with increasing emissions…


        One of the most nagging climate literacy challenges is public understanding of the role of the sun within Earth’s climate system. I cannot tell you how often people mischaracterize the role of the sun in the climate change discussion. We live comfortably on Earth because of the sun. We are, on average, about 92 to 93 million miles of the sun, but the distance is not necessarily the most important factor for our comfortable temperature range. The sun is the driver of Earth’s weather-climate system, but this is where it gets a bit tricky to understand if you have not taken a few classes in atmospheric physics or radiative transfer. In fact, I just had a nightmarish shiver thinking about those classes from graduate school (smile). In discussions about changing climate, I often see many incorrect discussions about the role of the sun. As I wrote previously in a Forbes discussion on the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and water vapor,

        The sun’s energy is mostly shortwave radiation (visible and UV). Much of it gets reflected or absorbed by the clouds, atmosphere, or Earth’s surface. The absorbed energy is emitted from the surface as longwave radiation or infrared radiation (heat). Wien’s Law says that objects at different temperatures emit at different wavelengths. The Earth is cooler than the sun so emits at longer wavelengths (i.e., there is an inverse relationship between temperature and the maximum wavelength of emission). The longwave radiation from Earth is emitted to space or absorbed by GHGs. GHGs reemit the longwave energy to space, other gases, or back to Earth. The astute reader will note that the atmospheric “greenhouse” effect is really a series of absorption-emission processes rather than just heat entrapment (as a real greenhouse does).”

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/03/eclipse-teachable-moment-our-weather-and-climate-really-need-the-sun/#2c8d641170dc

      • Mig…

        Firstly I don’t go to Forbes for Science its a financial rag, and I won’t shut off my ad blocker to view the article. Not to mention saying false news is not a methodology anyone in science would use in discussion about anything. In accordance to the Scientific method you would have to show how, provide control groups, be able to falsify, and then through rigorous peer review come to a consensus. I don’t think your ideological biases lend well to this process.

        disheveled… to use your methodology I would have to say your appearance and vestigial tail bring serious doubts about your Lamarckian inheritance, as such your inability to think correctly. Its not your fault miggie, you can’t help your forebears breading habits, but that does not change the reality of it sub human.

      • Science and data are really hard for you huh skip?

        “Cuba” October 19, 1924 12 hours 165 mph (270 km/h) 910 hPa (26.87 inHg) Central America, Mexico, Cuba, Florida, The Bahamas 90 [11]
        San Felipe II-Okeechobee September 13-14, 1928 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg) Lesser Antilles, The Bahamas, United States East Coast, Atlantic Canada 4,000 $100 million
        “Bahamas” September 5–6, 1932 24 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 921 hPa (27.20 inHg) The Bahamas, Northeastern United States 16
        “Cuba” November 5–8, 1932 78 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, The Bahamas, Bermuda 3,103 $40 million
        “Cuba–Brownsville” August 30, 1933 12 160 mph (260 km/h) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg) The Bahamas, Cuba, Florida, Texas, Tamaulipas 179 $27.9 million
        “Tampico” September 21, 1933 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg) Jamaica, Yucatán Peninsula 184 $5 million
        “Labor Day” September 3, 1935 18 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 892 hPa (26.34 inHg) The Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas, Virginia 408
        “New England” September 19–20, 1938 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 940 hPa (27.76 inHg) Southeastern United States, Northeastern United States, Southwestern Quebec 682 $306 million
        Carol September 3, 1953 12 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg) Bermuda, New England, Atlantic Canada 5 $2 million
        Janet September 27–28, 1955 18 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 914 hPa (26.99 inHg) Lesser Antilles, Central America 1,023 $65.8 million [12]
        Carla September 11, 1961 18 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 931 hPa (27.49 inHg) Texas, Louisiana, Midwestern United States 43 $326 million [13][14]
        Hattie October 30–31, 1961 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) Central America 319 $60.3 million [15][16]
        Beulah September 20, 1967 18 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 921 hPa (27.20 inHg) The Caribbean, Mexico, Texas 688 $208 million [17]
        Camille August 16–18, 1969 † 30 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 900 hPa (26.58 inHg) Cuba, United States Gulf Coast 259 $1.42 billion [13][18][19]
        Edith September 9, 1971 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 943 hPa (27.85 inHg) The Caribbean, Central America, Mexico, United States Gulf Coast 37 $25.4 million
        Anita September 2, 1977 12 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 926 hPa (27.34 inHg Mexico 11 Extensive [20]
        David August 30–31, 1979 42 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 924 hPa (27.29 inHg) The Caribbean, United States East coast 2,068 $1.54 billion [21][22]
        Allen August 5 – 9, 1980 † 72 hours 190 mph (305 km/h) 899 hPa (26.55 inHg) The Caribbean, Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, South Texas 269 $1.24 billion [21][23][24]
        Gilbert September 13–14, 1988 24 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 888 hPa (26.22 inHg) Venezuela, Central America, Hispaniola, Mexico 318 $7.1 billion [25][26]
        Hugo September 15, 1989 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 918 hPa (27.11 inHg) The Caribbean, United States East Coast 107 $10 billion [18][27][28]
        Andrew August 23 – 24, 1992 † 16 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 922 hPa (27.23 inHg) The Bahamas, Florida, United States Gulf Coast 65 $26.5 billion [18][29]
        Mitch October 26–28, 1998 42 hours 180 mph (285 km/h) 905 hPa (26.72 inHg) Central America, Yucatán Peninsula, South Florida 11,374 $6.2 billion [30][31][32][33]
        Isabel September 11 – 14, 2003 † 42 hours 165 mph (270 km/h) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Eastern United States, Ontario 51 $5.37 billion [18][34]
        Ivan September 9 – 14, 2004 † 60 hours 165 mph (270 km/h) 910 hPa (26.87 inHg) The Caribbean, Venezuela, United States Gulf Coast 124 $23.3 billion [18][35][36]
        Emily July 16, 2005 6 hours 160 mph (260 km/h) 929 hPa (27.44 inHg) Windward Islands, Jamaica, Mexico, Texas 17 $1.01 billion [37]
        Katrina August 28 – 29, 2005 18 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 902 hPa (26.64 inHg) Bahamas, United States Gulf Coast 1,836 $108 billion [38]
        Rita September 21 – 22, 2005 24 hours 180 mph (290 km/h) 895 hPa (26.43 inHg) Cuba, United States Gulf Coast 125 $12 billion [39]
        Wilma October 19, 2005 18 hours 185 mph (295 km/h) 882 hPa (26.05 inHg) Greater Antilles, Central America, Florida 87 $29.4 billion [40][41][42][43]
        Dean August 18 – 21, 2007 † 24 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 905 hPa (26.72 inHg) The Caribbean, Central America 45 $1.76 billion [21][44][45]
        Felix September 3–4, 2007 † 24 hours 175 mph (280 km/h) 929 hPa (27.43 inHg) Nicaragua, Honduras 133 $720 million [46][47][48][49]
        Matthew October 1, 2016″

        Off all the Cat5 hurricanes recoded 8 were before the 1940s and 8 since 2000.

        Did we have lot more emissions after 1940 than before? Logic

    • Yeah because white supremacists are pacifists…. what ever happened to “Survival of the Fittest”.

    • Woohoo fuck the cultural Marxists…aka Antifa.

      Seems on topic to this too…
      http://amp.smh.com.au/nsw/patriotic-protesters-cause-a-stir-in-sydneys-hyde-park-20170902-gy9iwo.html

      Saw my first car in Inner West yesterday where every occupant was wearing a full burqa and yet the woman was driving… ?
      Kinda thought it odd that they like the freedom to be able to drive but not show their face. I figure if you’re going full Saudi may as well make sure you follow all the same traditions?

      • Worse than that they seem to be flat out Stalinist commies. Shoot the cnts. Give each cop squad a chain gun. Cut em in half.

      • Upside down world today – ?????

        Antifa is a far left and radical left[2][3][4] political movement of autonomous, self-styled anti-fascist groups.[5][6][7] They focus more on fighting far-right and white supremacy ideology directly than on encouraging pro-left policy.[3] The salient feature of Antifa is to oppose fascism by direct action, including violence if need be.[3] Antifa groups tend to be anti-government and anti-capitalist.[8] Antifa’s militant challenge to militant free speech has been regarded as problematic.[9]

        The Department of Homeland Security and the FBI internally classify militant actions of Antifa as “domestic terrorist violence,” according to Politico.[10][11]

        According to The Economist, the “word Antifa has its roots in Anti-Fascist Action, a name taken up by European political movements in the 1930s” which was revived in the 1990s, particularly in Germany.[12][13] Peter Beinart writes that “in the late ’80s, left-wing punk fans in the United States began following suit, though they initially called their groups Anti-Racist Action, on the theory that Americans would be more familiar with fighting racism than fascism.”[2] Antifa groups are known for militant protest tactics, including property damage and physical violence.[14][15][16][5]

        Disheveled…. so the white supremacists and the neoNazis are now freedumb fighters now, like the mujahideen until Taliban thingy… so anti fascists are now the fascists because they have dramas with hate speech et al…. sigh…

      • Beating up on actual nazis is understandable, but they are beating up civic nationalists and Trump supporters too, many of them non white and even gay like Milo. This is terrorism. Even Chomsky said there were a gift to the ‘right’ meaning the almost fascism we are living under at the moment.

        What’s very profound is that neither side has a chance of ever getting power. Both are just idiot kids mostly. Hasn’t occurred to them that if they were moderate and compromised on things, use the internet, they could actually get somewhere.

        So much for modern kids being smart.

      • What you think el’trumpo is not a bit of a white supremacist or understands they are a contingent of the deplorabales and as such have to pander to them.

        Shezzz these people would erect a statue in memory of Jim Crow laws…. not to mention them voting against their interests for yonks and now have a sad because the same machinations are coming home to roost….

        Disheveled… self inflicted w/ a side of Darwin award… now they need the federal government to save them… yeah the very one they wanted to destroy… you can’t make this shit up….

      • No I don’t think a man with a Jewish daughter is a white supremacist.

        The so called deplorables just wanted to go back a couple of decades to when they made more stuff and had less porous borders. Nothing wrong with that, except for the huge interim depression that never got mentioned.

        As for them needing government help well even the most extreme libertarian wants government assistance to be there in natural disasters. Non argument.

      • What you don’t think Zionists are a sort of supremacists, see what happens when anyone attempts to cut off the billions in funding to Israel. Dear Dawg back in my youth Christians loathed Jew as Jesus killers, funny about how the whole Mooslim thingy turned it into one big happy family, not that Bush Jr. crossed the line an politicized religion for his last campaign or anything. Not to mention the Whole Christian dominate movement… waves at Gary North and BBQ buddy’s.

        Do you even have a clue to how much history you just white wash away whilst getting even basic polysci terms so distorted from any relevancy.

        I say again the White supremacists and neoNazis were happy until the corporatists gave them the flick, as long as the ethnically unpure were on the short end of the stick, and they had some vestigial belief in superiority, be it better housing or location and Pick Up Trucks [miss the old coon hunter stickers next to the gun rack in the back window – freedumb lives] they were docile vassals for their betters.

        The difference now is antifa has a past of being anti Capitalistic as well as anti Fascist, sometimes the two can be confused historically. So its cool to be a white supremacist or neonazi as long as your not perceived to be anti capitalistic [not that is a monolith or anything]. So far I have not seen them protesting about any form of capitalism, more so ethnic superiority BS, especially those that do have a penchant for Fascism.

      • Jesus Skip. Both sides of politics are supremacists in that sense. Basket weavers have become supremacists amongst the Labor/Democrat right too, they also occupy the Green left.

        The left likes to shit on Murdoch but theyve done a fine job of creating a confusing Kafkaesque hate fest over the last two years, completely destroying any chance of reasonable debate and defiling democracy to an almost irreparable state.

        It’s our way or else you’re racist. Yeah righto nothing fascist about that at all.

      • “It’s our way or else you’re racist. Yeah righto nothing fascist about that at all.”

        Yeah I know history and all can throw a spanner in ideological memes thing, but dear dawg get a dictionary and look up the foundations of fascism and racist.

        Disheveled…. what – ????? – is neoliberalism a white only party……

      • Upside down world today – ?????

        No, it’s a false equivalence fallacy created by the Faux News-esque principle of “balance”.

        Quite likely Uncle Rupert’s proudest achievement.

      • I tend to find myself agreeing with Morgan Freeman.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0p_pQ7PTYU

        So much focus on Whites vs Blacks etc.. it’s all BS… the real problem is have and have not. Stop trying to make certain individuals into victims and allowing them to police language and thought. That’s the real problem, we have a bunch of fools running around trying to suppress freedom of thought under the umbrella of “that’s racist”.

        These Antifa fucks are trying to make it an US vs them business..it’s divisive politics and it’s ripping the fabric out of society.

  12. “To be clear, many members of our community
    were hurt, frightened, and upset by what occurred at IMPACT … Because of the underlying reality many students of color endure on a daily basis, the conversation manifested into a larger conversation about race relations today at the University of Mississippi,” Arndt wrote in the letter acquired by The DM.”

    Because why?

    ” IMPACT is a campus-based leadership institute designed to foster improved relationships among campus leaders through a retreat-type program.
    Makala McNeil, president of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority, one of the nine historically African-American sororities and fraternities, said she saw the banana peel after leaving a group discussion that addressed race relations. Saturday morning, all of the retreat’s participants ate breakfast together, followed by a session where they shared their feelings on race relations at Ole Miss. The breakfast options included a fruit cart with bananas.
    “The overall tone was heavy,” McNeil, a senior integrated marketing communications and sociology major, said. “I mean, we were talking about race in Mississippi, at the University of Mississippi and in the Greek ”

    Its basically a country full of 20 year old skippy’s

    http://thedmonline.com/greek-life-retreat-ends-abruptly-bias-concerns/

    • Anything to shame men for their sexual urges

      Just be grateful he wasn’t taking them out on a down syndrome boy, like the liberal MP from SA

  13. As a few others here have noticed it looks like the Corelogic Daily index has been totally revamped, check out the Perth values –

    Perth values: Old index as at 31 Aug 2017 vs New index as at 4 Sep 2017 –

    https://imgur.com/a/91N4b

    Heres what Corelogic have to say –
    https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2017-08/2017-08–CoreLogic%20IndicesFAQsMedia_Aug.pdf

    “By understanding the contributory
    value of each characteristic,
    CoreLogic is able to infer the value
    of every property in the country and
    subsequently index the change in
    property values over time without
    requiring an actual transaction to be
    observed.

    Essentially, CoreLogic’s hedonic home
    value index estimates the value of every
    property across each region. Based on
    these valuation estimates of individual
    properties, CoreLogic calculates the
    capital gain or loss across the entire
    housing portfolio from period to period. ”

    Wonder if the inferring and estimating is going to create a more “pliable” dataset?

    • Don’t like the story the metrics are telling you? Change the model, and do it in the name of smoothing out volatility :D. It’s not like these numbers are important or anything. 😀

    • innocent bystander

      Thanks Ricky
      I like the new Perth graph, reflects my bias. Just down with no upticks.
      Don’t want anyone getting false hope.

  14. “Chris Wanstrath, who stepped up as CEO after Preston-Werner’s resignation, has very recently announced that he too will be stepping down from his position and will instead act as executive chairman at the company.

    What’s really important, however, is that prior to his resignation, Wanstrath, was able to address many issues at GitHub. He suspended the developer who allegedly pulled Horvath’s code after she refused to sleep with him, rebuilt the company’s infrastructure as its size outmatched its technical capabilities during a time of wild growth, and resigned after taking proper measures to look for a replacement”

    https://www.inc.com/amp/177041.html

  15. “The Promise of Fiscal Money” article by Yanis Varoufakis was interesting.
    “With the rise of financialization, commercial banks have become increasingly reliant on one another for short-term loans, mostly backed by government bonds, to finance their daily operations.”

    Why are commercial banks more reliant on each other for short-term loans than in the past? Is it because they can obtain lower rate short term loans from each other and from off-shore than the central banks? What has changed?

    Yannis’s description of the problem leaves me confused and his proposed solution raises more questions too.
    Can the money we transfer to our fiscal account be spent early by the Government? From his description it sounds like the money is either frozen in the account or can be transferred to another taxpayer, thus meaning the Government is losing 8% for the year the money is locked in the individuals account or if it’s used for person A to pay person B. What is the point of that?

    • What we want to know Dave, is, how is the Taxpayers Party vs RBA mega clarification battle going?

      • Ha. Well, in round 5 a rep from the RBA tried to stop the fight for no good reason while their main fighter quietly left the ring. At first glance this was a bit zen because no fighter = no fight.

        So team Dave asked the referee to get their star fighter back in the ring (aka FOI requests).

        In the meantime it’s just slow walks every day, bit of meditation, the odd sauna and some light reading to stay fresh…reapply the vasoline etc: http://bit.ly/2vV8yMG

        Once those FOI cheques clear the bell goes ding and round 6 is on!

      • Cheers Mig, got your “asset price targeting” example in that last letter which helped.
        If it turns out they are just paying lip service to their transparency mandate then a class action on behalf of renters may be on the table. CBA didn’t sit up and take notice until they were filed against. Hopefully RBA culture not that bad yet.

    • Scary stuff.
      Here’s a 28 year old interview with Carl Sagan where he explains nuclear winter and climate change. A lot of it is still very relevant and sadly we don’t seem to have made much progress.

    • Kim’s playing the game dangerously well. The kid with a crazy haircut has made the Trump administration look completely lost between an unhinged President tweeting fire and brimstone while the level heads try and make sense of a shit situation. Every anti-US lunatic fringe element is cheering with joy as the monkey and organ player battle it out. China and Russia are grinning like Cheshire cats as Trump inflicts more damage on himself than they’ll ever hope to do.

      • If US comes to conclusion that NK haven’t worked out how to mount those bombs on a missile they will attack. No choice.
        If US attacks and miscalculated and NK can deliver the payload..

      • I don’t think the US will get the chance to attack, China will step in do it for them, they will then put someone else in charge. China still needs North Korea as a buffer state. I’m thinking its getting close to the time when China makes the decision to depose North Korea’s “Dear Leader”

  16. TailorTrashMEMBER

    “Transcript released on day Beijing announced date of upcoming party congress contains details of plan to wipe out poverty in China by 2020”
    …….different systems ….will be interesting to see if different results ( Straya not so good ) ……….https://youtu.be/bx0IeQQ7WjI

      • nah they don’t, they’re more fucked then eva, how long you lived in OZ, you’re basically an aussie now, so you’re also becoming irrelevant

      • Alby…

        Some bootstrapped themselves to the higher plain, this will eventually be the same for the next mob, rinse and repeat… it is the only thing that can happen in the neoliberal reality – two tier world…

  17. TailorTrashMEMBER

    …..””.we are now getting down to the “emotional end of football ” but the boys are ready to give it their best and everyone knows what to do on the day. We are there and we have a great opportunity to do something special “”….(channel nine News) ..
    ………one wonders how much the NRL spends on media training ………no probs just up the ticket prices for the punters ……….