Pascometer red line drives housing sentiment to record low

The nation is sagely listening to the increasingly shrill warning emanating from the Pascometer:

Comments

  1. McGrath reckons Brisbane is going to sky rocket over the short-term? All those southerners who can’t afford to buy in Sydney and Melbourne will move to Brisbane.

    Note the data source includes Melbourne institute.

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      And I suppose when Brissy is as dear as Sydney the next place to skyrocket will be Darwin and Perth and then Adelaide. Same as is happening all over Canada, ah?

    • The only problem I see with that is unemployment. Plenty of MLs in the last 12 months but they don’t seem to be employed. Working age adults seem to be heading to Sydney or Melb. Also the rental market in Brisbane is aimed at student accomodation and it is oversupplied already. I just don’t see Brisbane booming in the short term.

    • As someone who is sitting on the side lines, I’ve looked at Tasmania (briefly), Adelaide, Brisbane etc.. but why jump into an over-valued asset in any of the other states if the pop means they will all devalue in short order? Better to keep your powder dry and wait and buy into the city you actually want to live in eventually at perhaps a 50% discount?

      • I tend to think no 50% fall. Might be up to 20% falll but then money will be printed and currency will devalue 30% given 50% decline but people will generally only think of it as 20% decline. This will be the problem for those sitting on the sidelines in $AUD as they will be still behind

      • Gavin – Consider this: If it doesn’t fall by 50% then wait for the AUD depreciation into the USD 0.50-0.60 range and then take out a USD mortgage. Wait for the inevitable appreciation back to USD 0.70-0.80 range and then replace USD mortgage with an AUD one. This may take 5 years or so but you’ll benefit in the long run.
        Clearly risks of servicing increase in USD but you wont benefit if you don’t take risk.

      • Or hold USD based equities and if $AUD plunges transfer to $AUD to purchase.. Yes I agree.. but I think an only 20% correction in prices is Optimistic…

  2. Foreign buyers and international students don’t care….
    The auction clearance rate was up this week as they flood in before the start of Semester 2.
    The international student numbers are INSANE….

    • “Julie Bishop’s Glorious Foundation” welcomes the record number of Chinese immigrant students that arrived last year.

      We get the politicians that the Chinese government pays for.

    • International students are well catered for. Apartment prices rises are slowing, ground to a halt in Melbourne. Not so family size houses appreciating at close to 20% pa. No-one is building for families, only around 10% of apartments built in Sydney have >2 bedrooms – and that’s all they’re building. Sentiment or not, many people have no choice.

  3. It really does seem like someone told the media to turn it up over the last while. You cannot read the paper and not find breaking news that interest rates can not go up (i.e. ever) tacked onto articles asserting that the stock market is risky and will soon crash.

    -Don’t spook the horses. -That CERTAINLY is not different here.

  4. In my area – Toowoomba – but it’ll be widespread I should imagine, houses that sell way under the original asking price are quietly removed from realestate.com.au.
    Seriously, the media is suppressing the real story in favour of high prices.
    I think farmers have a golden rule of setting an asking price of double the value!!

  5. In my area – Toowoomba – but it’ll be widespread I should imagine, houses that sell way under the original asking price are quietly removed from realestate.com.au.
    Seriously, the media is suppressing the real story in favour of high prices.
    I think farmers have a golden rule of setting an asking price of double the value!!

    • If you actually looked at the performance of Houses, Mining Shares and Aussie dollar, the only conclusion you can come to is that MB is the contrarian indicator.

  6. Just let the Chinese buy up everything from the baby boomers. The sooner it happens, the sooner the boomers can fuck off in their vans, or piss off to aged care facilities with their over-inflated winfalls from their sales, and hand most of it over to those same monetised-institutions, who will gladly sell a warm message of luxury and care ….. on the surface…..then it will dawn on those recipients once contracts are signed what the fuck has happened albeit way too late.
    Australian youth don’t count and not considered in politics……..but they will be….just hold in there young folk.

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