Pascometer redlines on FHB boom

Weeoo, weeoo, weeoo.

The Pascometer wailed again late yesterday, it’s eighth straight property warning in a few weeks (for that MB must apologise having exposed the broken workings of the mechanism for all other topics leaving precious little else for it to write about).

Yesterday’s spat cog was a wild over-egging of the NAB property survey which apparently signaled that FHB’s are the “new kings” of the housing market:

As so often is the case, it appears the market has run ahead of government housing policy. According to the NAB June quarter residential property survey, first home buyers were the biggest players in new property sales and second in established housing.

Someone forgot to tell FHBs to wait until July 1 for various government incentives. In particular, the NSW stamp duty deal was widely tipped to sideline FHBs in June and cause a rush this month. If there is a further surge from the NAB’s June quarter figures, FHBs will rule.

…That’s still growth though after a period of extraordinary rises in the dominant Sydney and Melbourne markets. If the two surveys are correct and average prices hold up with more modest gains, it will be a major achievement for such a boom to end without a bust. The housing permabears will be bitterly disappointed if their decade-long forecasts of imminent disaster again fail.

A little data (spelled d-a-t-a) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS to those in the know):

Investor shares remain shockingly higher:

Nothing would give us greater pleasure than to see FHBs rise to be “kings” of the property market. Alas, for now, there is little sign of it given the monstrous pricing out by investors. With luck macroprudential 2.0 will help rebalance things ahead but it’ll be a long haul given the extreme unaffordability and lunatic policies of Gladys Berejiklian.

The Pascometer is analog not digital so there is no software update to enable it to read charts. We can be reassured that it will generate further false signals, though only for property it now seems.

Weeoo, weeoo, weeoo.


  1. Jake GittesMEMBER

    It was probably Pascoe’s turn to write that article in the thematic roulette wheel that is Domain. Data was not that important but another good property story was required.

      • With all the flipping between Investor and FHB etc.. I wonder how many are actually first home buyers who are negatively geared and perhaps negatively gearing their own homes? I mean it seems the switch between the 2 happens so rapidly. Like Lemmings jumping to the next lower rate or perhaps there is some racket going on out there where everyone buys a place to their mates live in it and they negatively gear each others properties and move between the 2 properties every so many years to continue the rort and capital gains tax exemption? Has anyone looked into this?

        I know for example that my brother wants to buy a home, so why don’t we both buy a home live in them for 1 year each, move out and negatively gear each others properties to 1 another? Move back in on the 6th year? Tax deductions for everyone!

      • olaf bukowskiMEMBER

        @Gavin, I’m sure this has to be the case, renting from relatives or friends and vice versa to negative gear, what massive loophole. The only way to really know is to abolish NG for everything….

  2. “With luck macroprudential 2.0 will help rebalance things”

    Cannot ……. contain …….. laugh ….. ter…..


    Those 5+ per cent headline rates are just for show and are meaningless. To appease APRA.

    The real rates are 100s of basis points lower. The evidence is posted all over this site by posters. 3 point something actual interest rates after discounts.



    • + more than a few!

      See modification below.

      With luck macroprudential 2.0 will help Coles and Woolies find something to do with all those slimy sacks of week old baby lettuce leaves”

      Nyuk nyuk nyuk.

      Just kidding.

      Everyone knows that Macroprudential XP (Xtra Prudentially) is the one worth waiting for!

    • +1 for MP 1.0 and 2.0 and soon to be MP 3.0 Mega LOLZ.

      Pfh007 – We all know it’s every second MP version that is the good . Just like Windows wait for the second release. I’m sure MP 3.0 will be good. But 4.0 will suck and 5.0 will be good etc..

  3. Might be worth noting that a boom in new home buyers means a further shrinkage in the number of renters. In turn, it means more and more burnt “investors” dumping stock on the market on top of the mounting problems with investor loans


    WA PROPERTY markets could go from the nation’s worst to its best-performed over the next two years as buyers regain confidence in the State and go cold on the rest of the country.

    National Australia Bank analysis suggests WA has reached the bottom after several years of falling property prices, growing rental vacancy rates and the biggest fall in rents since the early 1990s.

    NAB chief economist Alan Oster said there were clear expectations among property analysts that the WA market would improve relative to the rest of the country over the next two years.

    Boom baby boom.