Let’s recall Michael Pascoe’s article on Friday whereby he basically labelled those of us seeking a more moderate immigration intake – commensurate with Australia’s first 100 years after Federation – as racist simpletons:
A little after Friday lunch, the population clock on the Australian Bureau of Statistics web site will tick over to 24.5 million…
With housing prices high in Sydney and Melbourne and national wages growth low, the anti-immigration forces are mustering on claimed economic grounds, as well as the usual populist fringe attacking as “un-Australian” whatever the latest wave of migrants might be.
The simplistic negative economic view of our migration program concentrates on the challenges of population growth. They seize on part of a Productivity Commission report on immigration released in September…
Those who would prefer to live under aspic only see migrants as competition for housing and jobs, not acknowledging that migrants’ contribution makes more jobs possible, that one plus one can in fact add up to more than two, that Australia’s potential is not a zero-sum game.
The anti-immigration chorus would prefer to reduce immigration rather than build the infrastructure to realise the nation’s potential… So, throw the new babies out with the infrastructure underinvestment bathwater, or rise to the challenge and fix the infrastructure?.. They downplay or ignore the rich rewards of our economy and culture being reinvigorated…
There are claims and counter-claims on both sides of the migration economic argument, typified by an on-going academic fight over the impact on wages…
When there are echoes of the appalling Trump on both sides of our politics, population milestones should be a chance to embrace optimism about this nation, for political leaders to actually show some leadership, to educate and take pride in our story, instead of cringing to court the lowest common denominator, of bowing to the narrow, the ignorant and intolerant.
Now let’s backtrack a decade when the same Michael Pascoe was justifiably concerned about the impact excessive levels of immigration were having on both infrastructure and wages (read the full history here).
Here’s Pascoe in March 2007:
Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews is reportedly taking to Cabinet next month [a submission] increasing the permanent migration program from the present 140,000 a year to “at least 180,000”…
The surge of guest workers and skilled migration has already kept a lid on wages. As we’ve previously reported, more than half the growth of 200,000 full time jobs last year went to guest workers and targeted skills migrants.
With no apparent cap on 457 visas, plus the Kevin Andrews’s migration submission, it will continue to do so.
Here’s Pascoe in July 2007:
From Brisbane to Perth and all major centres in between, Australian cities are groaning under inadequate infrastructure, choked roads, unaffordable housing, failing public transport.
…the influx remains beyond the planning and delivery capabilities of hapless state governments, never mind a federal government that underfunds the states.
The immigration surge plays a major role in keeping wages inflation under control and, therefore, interest rates down — but it’s putting plenty of strain on other parts of the system.
Here’s Pascoe in August 2007:
Crucial skills shortages in a number of areas means the idea of a flexible and fast temporary visa system has considerable merit, but the badly-administered and demonstrably slip-shod 457 scheme presently run by Kevin Andrews doesn’t.
And there are broader issues yet to be debated about the impact of 300,000 migrants this year on the labor market and economy, the role such an unprecedented intake will play in keeping down inflation by keeping down wages.
And Here’s Pascoe in July 2008:
457s are now being processed faster than ever… As the Minister correctly notes, “the increase in the subclass 457 visa grants highlighted the importance of the program in delivering skilled labour to employers across a wide range of professions and industries.”
It also helps reduce inflation by keeping down wages in at least some select industries.
And, with the economy coming off the boil, the matching of 457 visa applicants with areas of particular skills shortages is somewhat less than laser sharp, if only because 47 per cent of those 110, 570 visas were for “secondary grants”, i.e. dependents, who themselves have a very high workforce participation rate in whatever field they fancy…
It’s not so good for workers in the lower half of the pay spectrum who lose bargaining power when positions are filled by 457 visa holders…
So, according to the Michael Pascoe of 2007-08, immigration held down wages and had already crush-loaded infrastructure and housing. But anyone raising the very same issues in 2017 and calling for a significant moderation in the immigration intake is now a racist simpleton!
So why the change of view by Pascoe?
The mining boom ended in 2011 and skills shortages “remain low by historical standards”, according to the Department of Employment. So the rationale for hyper-levels of immigration to alleviate labour market shortages no longer holds. And yet, Australia’s permanent migrant intake is higher now than at the peak of the mining boom, most of it ‘skilled’:
Meanwhile, rorting via the temporary visa scheme is widespread, as uncovered by the recent Senate Report as well as the frequent reports throughout the mainstream media over the past few years.
Thus, mass immigration is unquestionably dragging down wages, as evident by the average compensation per employee falling for the first time in recorded history in the March quarter:
Then there’s infrastructure and housing affordability, which are even more crush-loaded now than a decade ago thanks to the 3.3 million (16%) surge in Australia’s population since 2007, with Sydney’s population having risen by a massive 680,000 (16%) and Melbourne’s by a crushing 800,000 (21%). Moreover, this population crush is expected to worsen for decades to come, given Sydney’s population is projected to increase by 87,000 people a year (1,650 people a week) and Melbourne’s by 97,000 people a year (1,870 people a week), until both cities hit around 8 million people mid-century.
Given the situation around wages, housing and infrastructure is much worse today than a decade ago, the most logical explanation for Michael Pascoe’s change of view towards mass immigration – from skeptic to an enthusiastic cheerleader – is that a decade ago Pascoe wrote for Crikey, whereas now he writes for Domainfax, which has a vested interest in maintaining the property bubble.
Pascoe doesn’t need to provide genuine arguments explaining why running a mass immigration “Big Australia” program is in the national interest when he can simply denigrate the opposition by playing the lazy “xenophobic”/“dog whistling”/”racist” card.