Sunday Chartfest May 7, 2017

Just an experiment/for something different – A load of charts and diagrams collected over the last week or two from either twitter, business articles or research just grouped together under general themes

 

AUSTRALIAN REAL ESTATE

Australian Capital City rents…..(what is happening in Hobart?)

 

Individuals claiming rental net profit and loss by age 2014/2015

 

Total Values Net Rental Profit/Loss

 

Percent claiming net rent profit/loss

 

Housing Credit Growth

 

LVR > 90%

 

Home loan rates and RBA rates 2014 to now

 

Projected Revenues Stamp duty/Land tax

 

 

AUSTRALIAN MACRO

 

Australian credit by sector

 

12 month credit growth 

 

Quarterly CPI

 

Australian employment growth by state in year to March 2017

 

Shop employment

 

Employment participation by Education

 

Retirement Income fears

 

State and local government revenue sources

 

The Yield spread and the AUD

 

The road to Basel III for Australian banks

 

NORTH AMERICA

The probability of 3 more hikes from the US Federal Reserve this year

 

US Fiscal policy contribution to GDP

 

US essential/non-essential inflation

 

US blue collar hours worked and wages growth

 

US wages growth

 

US domestic non financial sector borrowing

 

US effective funds rate minus CPI

 

US debt and credit

 

Canada and US home prices

 

US Passive investment growth

 

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac – back in the black

 

Credit cards defaults in the US

 

US Earning more than their parents by year of birth

 

Health spending concentration in the US economy

 

EUROPE

Real effective exchange rates – EU

 

EU Current accounts

 

Long Term refinancing in Eurosystem – selected nations

 

Putin’s successes and failures according to Russians

 

UK Debt and Credit

UK House prices

CHINA

China GDP and Monetary policy

 

China and the global credit pulse

 

CAPITAL MARKETS

 

Central Bank Balances and Equities

 

Global Exchange Traded Product growth by region since 2003

COMMODITIES

 

Oil breakevens

 

Iron Ore

 

Iron ore coming on line

 

Base metals

 

 

GLOBAL MACRO

Private debt/GDP – developed nations

 

Top 1% economic take over time

 

Manufacturing employment – US, Japan & EU

 

Home ownership prospects for future generations

 

Global imbalances

 

World’s largest companies

 

Protection measures – major trading nations

 

OECD Health spending (public and private)…..(the US is not a model we wish to emulate 1)….

 

Private Health Insurance dependence – High Income OECD…..(the US is not a model we wish to emulate 2)….

 

Global population growth

 

…AND FURTHERMORE…

 

The use of Ad blocking software

 

Journalist freedoms

 

Malaria deaths

 

Oil tanker spills

 

Progress on poverty

Comments

  1. Expecting a bit of a ‘sell the fact’ for Euro after Macron routs Le Pen. Laughable the French expect Macron to be anything other than a banker-patsy of the gimp Holland. Massive leak of his misdemeanours already being suppressed. Le Pen has it in the bag 2022. Shocking. But in the mean time, BUY EURO! (cos europe’s fixed)

    • Little nettle, it is laughable that you expect Le Pen to be any better than Trump. That bet ain´t paying out, huh?

    • People will vote for economee number one, even if you run them over with a truck. True getting a candidate in is half the battle, then you gotta hope they don’t end up a fraud.

      • True in AUS you mean?

        I have spoken to immigrants from India, one said the infrastructure is not keeping up and another said that too many immigrants are coming over.

        They have daughters now. Would they want their daughter’s school to become overcrowded? The trains? The job market?

        And given that most foreign “students” are male, would they want their daughters to face a sea of barely literate males at uni when they finish high school?

        SAP and ONP need to get some immigrants on their posters – that would make Sarah Hanson Young get a heart attack!

      • Yes I agree, it’s the same issue I faced when I was in Mykonos 1 summer back in 2008. I was living in Ireland and went there to enjoy a short break (flying budget Ryan Air). Anyway the place was crawling with Australian’s looking for a summer break (middle of Winter in Australia). The missus and I were like, this sucks. We are half way around the world trying to get away from Australian’s and here we are… 😀

        It’s not that I don’t like Australian’s of course, it’s that sometimes you move away from somewhere to get away from a particular group. In the case of immigrants from India I’d imagine they want to get away from Indian’s. 😀 Having loads of them come here and erode living standards wouldn’t be what the majority want.

  2. john.dentice

    Nice guys. Would love to see this as a regular Sunday post. Cheers John.

    • DodgydamoMEMBER

      +1 …also thanks for putting something anti-regular doom and gloom at the very end!

      • Not so fast! Ask yourself these questions:
        Have they – perchance – changed the metric for what means to be under poverty line?
        Have they changed the way *that* is calculated?

        Remember when they took housing costs out of the CPI? Yeah – that little beauty!

        Sorry to rain on this parade…

  3. LabrynthMEMBER

    Do this for a few weeks then put it behind the pay wall, hopefully get a few more subscribers.

    • ..OR, you could decide you want to site to succeed and grow, which is done by enticing more visitors by compelling content with the knowledge there is even more behind the paywall. It’s a balancing act – you can’t give it all away, but visitors need a reason to come back if they are to be nurtured into subscribers.

      • You’ve been on this site quite some time (dunno how long, but your handle is one i recall from a ways back) So how much free shit do you need before coughing up?

  4. BadaBingMEMBER

    A great collection here Gunna, many thanks.
    As for ‘what’s going on in Hobart?’ Answer: rampant Chinese buying. There’s a large daigou syndicate buying established homes for mainlanders. The local bank is one of the few that writes loans based on (supposed) income earned in China. As my source says ‘capital controls: lol’

    • thefatgeneralMEMBER

      As a local I can say that it’s the air BnB effect. Remember Hobart is a small market in a tourist town-the movement of houses from rental stock to air BnB (whilst great for the tourism industry) has caused rents to skyrocket. Especially in the inner city areas, sandy bay, Dynnyrne, west Hobart battery point etc. the extra tourist accommodation is a good thing though, it’s already impossible to rent a room in peak times (dark mofo/Xmas etc)

  5. Willy2MEMBER

    – Help. Information overload.
    – Another chart with a worrying message (See below, from a canadian website). Healthcare costs in the US are (very) high in comparison to a bunch of other countries but this doesn’t mean that it increases the life expectancy. To the contrary. Other countries outside the US are getting “more bang for the buck”. DO combine that with the chart in this thread on the dependancy on private Insurance. Then I reach the conclusion that those high US Healthcare costs are only benfitting the Healthcare sector itself. The (financial) of the US Healthcare sector is/seems to be therefore very good.

    https://jugglingdynamite.com/2017/03/28/big-corps-running-public-policy-making-us-sick-and-bankrupt/

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        This doco here may have what you are after

        https://www.oecd.org/australia/Health-at-a-Glance-2015-Key-Findings-AUSTRALIA.pdf

        KEY FINDINGS
         Australia performs well in terms of overall population health status. At 82.2 years, life
        expectancy is the sixth highest in the OECD, and the country’s record on breast and
        colorectal cancer survival is among the best. Australia has one of the lowest rates of
        tobacco consumption (12.8% of the population aged 15 and over), but it is the fifth
        most obese country in the OECD (28.3% of the population aged 15 and over).
         Australia achieves good outcomes relatively efficiently. Health expenditure is 8.8% of
        GDP, about the same as the OECD average of 8.9%.
         There are areas where Australia can improve. It has high rates of hospital admission
        for chronic conditions that can be managed in primary care.
         Australian consumption of antidepressants, cholesterol-lowering drugs and antibiotics
        are among the highest in the OECD.
         Australians spend more on out-of-pocket health care costs than the OECD average

  6. Hi Gunna, The press freedom chart is from Radio Free Europe which is a U.S. State Dept/Soros organisation for imperial projection. Not worth the pixels it is displayed on. How’s the press freedom is France where the press is threatenedwith criminal charges if they publish contents of hacking of the establishment candidste’s private files.

    On a side note, the White Helmets are about to stage another chemical weapons attack and pin it on Assad.

    You head it here first.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Well the chart came from RFE maybe, but the chart also makes perfectly clear the information comes from RSF – which certainly isnt a US State Department front and may explain why they didnt rank the US anywhere in the top 20 (………though I concede the distinction may be somewhat nuanced, and even look like a vast US, neocon, Jewish led conspiracy to deprive nations of the right to chemically attack their own people, if you are heavily into defending the Assads and their propensity for chemically assaulting the citizens of the country they ostensibly rule)

      https://rsf.org/en/ranking

      • “RSF – which certainly isnt a US State Department front…”

        true this.
        There are “front” organisations (like CNN et cie) and “rearing” organisations
        (some pun indeed intended)

        Funny that in the 21st century some still belive in independence of the media.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        ‘Funny that in the 21st century some still belive in independence of the media.’

        Maybe not in absolute but in relative terms there is a world of difference between thinking that western MSM media has a large number of issues and thinking for a second that the Assads arent fairly grizzly with their own (and havent been chemically waging war no their own)…………..or that some nations dont have an ugly record when it comes to whacking/torturing/marginalising journalists and media proprietors.

        But the RSF boys have rightly identified that Syria ranks about stone motherless last when it comes to freedom of journalists – and anyone who has ever watched in sheer incredulity for more than 10 minutes of ORTAS or tried to wade through Al Tharwa or Tishreen would be the first to observe it does lead to a definable style which often beggars belief.

      • “and thinking for a second that Assads…. (and havent been chemically waging war no their own)”
        “…Assads and their propensity for chemically assaulting the citizens of the country they ostensibly rule”

        It’s an opinion, not a fact, an we all know it.
        Now how many “free” media in US published facts vs. opinion like this one quoted above?

        Assad is not a democrat, Syria was not a democratic country. No one claimed different.
        But Syria was on a (better) path to become democracy before it was destabilised and infested with daesh to serve a greater oil industry purpose. We saw model of democracy come to Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan…

        Back to RSF/RWB charts, “a beacon of democracy in ME”, the Saudi Arabia, fares deadly close to “about stone motherless last” Syria and yet, strangely, isin’t it, we read f-all about that.

        One scratch under the surface of the 87 questions made to undisclosed responders reveal purely arbitrary questions calling for speculation (see the list below for some) which are set to influence valid questions with shit data. No wonder they’ve been accused of being in bed with none less than the Beltway.

        https://rsf.org/sites/default/files/rsf_survey_en.pdf

        and how can US make it above place 200 with questions like these:
        D9
        To what extent do radio and television stations with the largest audiences present independent and critical news?
        D10
        Do public media ignore some news that is sensitive for the government, but which private media cover?

        or specially with this:
        D11
        How concentrated is media power?

        But whatever “does you”.

      • Djenka, claiming that “…Syria was on a (better) path to become democracy before it was destabilised and infested with daesh to serve a greater oil industry purpose.” is stretching the truth to breaking point. One thing is stating that Syria is an unmitigated disaster (it is) and another claiming that Syria wasn´t that bad (it was). The Assad family, like all the tin-pot dictators that have ruled much of Africa and the ME were just convenient during the cold war for both sides (no altruism from the Eastern bear either). You may assert that the West supported the uprising without understanding the rising religions tensions in the area, but the idea that it was some sort of coup d´etat to serve “oil purposes” doesn´t stand (Irak was something else though). In the end the developed world broke the toy and we either fix it (to the chagrin of the Saudis, Turks and Israelis) or it will keep rearing its ugly head. Going back to dictators will not work.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        …..the old Djenka bait and switcheroo….a beauwdiful example

        First we take the subject in play (Syria) and make sure we paint it with the WMD, the Libya and the Afghanistan and Iraq – all of which it is quite plausible to relate it to – …..though none of which gets us around the fact that the Assads have been in power since the early 1970s, and have been torturing, bombing, and using chemical weapons on their people for quite some time.

        Interestingly, we get a serve of Syria not being democratic, but of it having been on some ‘better path’ at some unspecified point in the past – for anyone wondering that claim is there to serve the same function as a side of chips, its palatable and it fills the plate some more…..though none of which gets us around the fact that the Assads have been in power since the early 1970s, and have been torturing, bombing, and using chemical weapons on their people for quite some time.

        As to the opinion v fact when it comes to the Assad use of chemical weapons against his own people, I would note that amongst those pointing the finger at the Syrian despot include RSF, Reuters, the BBC, the French UK and US inteligence services, and the Turks (and I would note that these organisations have hitherto been able to agree on absolutely nothing – Not the WMD in Iraq, not the threat posed by IS, not anything). The rebuttal is provided by representatives of the Russian state media, friends of Mr Bashar Al Assad and …..you got anyone else apart from you Djenka?……

        Now while I wouldnt be inclined to take the word of any of the above organisations unquestioned there is a degree of plausibility I will ascribe to the theory Assad bombed his own people with chemicals greater than that I will ascribe to that posited by an alliance between the Russian state media and the regime of Al Assad (neither of which would be particularly capable of identifying concepts like ‘truth’ or ‘veracity’ or ‘factuality’ without channeling it through the prism of Russian or Syrian state interests. That isnt to say that I would take the Brits the French and US or the Turks or even the BBC or the Reuters or the RSF crowd unadulterated, but I would observe there is far greater commonality, a far greater degree of detail about what they report has happened with Bashar Al Assad’s use of chemical weapons on his own people than there is from the Russian and Syrian side (which basically amounts to The Syrian government didnt do it.)

        As for the Sauds – yes they are nutters, yes they torture journalists, yes they are downright ugly and yes they are tolerated mainly because they have lots of oil and do their banking in British and American banks – they were rightly identified by the original RSF link i posted in response to Joel. As I dare say you have some comprehension issues I will let you know that if the country is painted black in that picture then it isnt doing well and in the link I posted it clearly states that for RSF Saudi Arabia came in at 168th a full 20 places lower than Russia which came in at 148th ………..

        But you arent here to look at Saudi Arabia Djenka, you are here solely to use it for a distraction from a contemplation of whether Syria has used chemical weapons on its own people and whether Russia is supporting that.

        Thats OK one supposes – whatever does it for you – but nobody should believe a single word you posit about the subject, unless we want to find ourselves in a world where the Russian state media and the Syrian government are the sole purveyors of the truth as it applies in Syria

      • @ JasonMN

        Jason,

        You may assert as you like, for me “claiming that Syria wasn´t that bad (it was).” disregards that *any* kind of peace is better then the kindest of wars.

        “You may assert that the West supported the uprising without understanding the rising religions tensions in the area, but the idea that it was some sort of coup d´etat to serve “oil purposes” doesn´t stand”
        This is incorrect.
        I never asserted that US/”West” supported “uprising” without understanding. Actually quite opposite. The resulting situation is exactly where they wanted it to be.
        Oil purpose is not the only one. Non-US military presence is another. Geopolitics too…

        Syria before war was a better place to be than Syria today or any alternative “moderate terrorists” or other “uprising” parties are offering
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secularism_in_Syria

        ” In the end the developed world broke the toy and we either fix it (to the chagrin of the Saudis, Turks and Israelis) or it will keep rearing its ugly head. Going back to dictators will not work.”
        You nearly got me there.
        Iraq is a monument to idiocy of “replacing” the ME dictatorships with some sort of imported democracy through a war.
        The “toy” was not broken to be fixed.
        What does it even mean “Going back to dictators will not work.”?

      • I get it Gunnamatta,

        trolling Westworld’s MSM is acceptable, Saudis are “nutters: but Assad is a monster (and the other guys that are”switch and bait”), majority can rule what the truth is irrespective that there are no proof of crimes, you are right and I must be wrong then.

        “nobody should believe a single word you posit about the subject,”
        I never ask anyone to believe any word I say.
        I expect nothing more from those that they read what I post but to look into what MSM is *not* saying… and draw own conclusion

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I encourage people every day to look very closely at what is said in all media, and never to take anything as read.

        But when it comes to questioning what is not being said you could do worse than to look at the Syrian and Russian media on the activities taking place in Syria right now and ask what is ‘not’ being said and why. The fact is you are an apologist for a regime which chemically attacks its own people – no wonder Islamic State look a plausible option for some of them.

        …….until the next exchange of views on the subject, old coq

      • “I encourage people every day to look very closely at what is said in all media, and never to take anything as read.”

        Perhaps you can encourage yourself to *actually read* UN report on gasing in Syria (from which I partially draw my conclusions). None other than the link *you* gave me.

        The presumption of innocence, sometimes referred to by the Latin expression ei incumbit probatio qui dicit, non qui negat (the burden of proof is on the one who declares, not on one who denies), is the principle that one is considered innocent unless proven guilty.

        Under the presumption of innocence, the legal burden of proof is thus on the prosecution, which must collect and present compelling evidence to the trier of fact

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presumption_of_innocence

        if above makes me an “aplogetic” of anyone… well… I accept it with pleasure.

        farewell…
        and do not confuse critic of your cocoon of geopolitics with anything else you’ve done here.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        The presumption of innocence

        Next time you are in Syria try running that past some lawyers there (though dont do it in Latin, nobody understands a word of it) – you’ll be sure to get tears of laughter.

        Yes, my cocoon of geopolitics – well said, well said. You enjoy yours too.

  7. Willy2MEMBER

    – Another two “interesting” charts. For a number of years (since early 2011 & 2012) the amount of bankruptcies in the US kept falling. But it seems there’s a MAJOR reversal in the making. “Wolfstreet.com” published 2 charts that (seem to) suggest that the amount of bankruptcies is rising again. These 2 charts are similar to what ZeroHedge published and were re-posted in this thread.

    Source:
    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/08/commercial-bankruptcies-rise-consumer-bankruptcies-up/

  8. This is great. While I always liked Gunna’s charts I think they’re better as a standalone post (where they get the attention they deserve) rather than a comment thread in the weekend reading post.

  9. thanks. interesting stuff. hope it becomes a regular feature… if its easy for you guys to do.