Australian dollar pressure mounts as yield spread tumbles

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DXY and euro were both firm last night:

Commodity currencies generally rebounded:

Oil too:

And base metals:

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Plus big miners:

EM stocks are ripping. I hate this rally but with guys like Gundlach behind it it may run purely on the valuation play:

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High yield is stalled:

US bonds were sold and the curve flattened:

European too:

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DM stocks rose a little:

Despite the selling in the US, Australian bonds were bid and the yield spread is tumbling again at new seventeen year lows for the two year of just 34bps:

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I still think that the spread may invert negative before year end. The curve is not pricing any of the forthcoming weakness in Australia and remains stupidly steep:

And although I reckon oil will slow the Fed, it’ll still hike at least once more.

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Lot’s of implied pressure on the Aussie dollar here.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.