Iron ore prices for September 21, 2018: Spot down. Everything else stable. China is closed today. Still see prices falling to year-end to low-$60s then a stable year for 2019 with expanding stimulus in China and the US.
Spot flat. Paper flat. Steel flat. Chinese stimulus is already priced. In news, Vale wants more, via Reuters: Peter Poppinga, executive director at Vale, said at an industry conference in China that the world’s largest iron ore miner was studying expanding its S11D project in the Amazonian state of Para, even though it was still
Iron ore prices for September 19, 2018: Spot down. Paper more. Steel up. Here it comes, via Reuters: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the top state planner in the country, said in a news briefing on Tuesday that China would ramp up investment in infrastructure, as well as in agriculture, poverty alleviation and
Iron ore prices for September 18, 2018: No change. Down into Q4.
Iron ore prices for September 17, 2018: Everything stable. Down into Q4.
Iron ore price charts for September 14, 2018: Spot firmed and paper added more. Steel was firm. Rebar inventories are fine at 4.33mt well above last year. The ferrous market is now pricing for the property boom that has been unleashed with more infrastructure to come. Given inventories of everything are already so high I
Iron ore prices for September 13, 2018: There you go. New highs contrary to my best guess. Paper was firm overnight as well. Steel was soft yesterday. I still say we’ll sink through Q4 but these political cross-currents make it more a guess than a forecast. Given we’ll be falling from a higher point we
Iron ore prices for September 12, 2018: Spot down. Paper was smashed yesterday but flew overnight on the trade news. Steel will likely recover today. Chinese credit showed a flicker of life in August but not enough to change things: No change. Down into Q4.
Origin (ORG) wants out of the gas cartel. And who could blame it? There’s a war brewing between the cartel and various Australian governments and it will not be good for shareholders. Via The Australian: Origin Energy is believed to be embarking on a strategic review of its upstream assets worth at least $8 billion
Via Reuters: Prices of steel and its raw materials fell sharply in China for a second session on Wednesday, hitting multi-week lows, as more investors liquidated positions with oversupply risks rising as Beijing mulls a flexible implementation of its output curbs. China is considering allowing its northern provinces to decide individual output cuts by heavy
Via S&P: Our price assumptions for iron ore are unchanged. In our view, favorable steel producer margins and supply side reform in China should underpin steady demand for iron ore this year. This demand, together with disciplined new iron ore supply from major players, should support a relatively stable iron ore price for the rest
Via The Australian: Gas prices on Australia’s east coast are set to surge by up to 70 per cent over the next decade with the southern states forced to rely on LNG imports to get through peak demand in winter, consultancy Wood Mackenzie has warned. Prices for gas could surge to between $14.30 and $15.90
Iron ore price charts for September 11, 2018: Spot eased. Paper down overnight. Steel futures got mashed as authorities mull different supply curtailments which are largely irrelevant anyway. Down into Q4.
Iron ore prices for September 10, 2018: Spot down. Paper down. Steel up. CISA production lifted a little in late August but remains in a down trend. Prices to weaken into Q4.
Iron ore price for September 7, 2019: Spot unchanged. Paper firm. Steel firm. Rebar inventories fell a little last week but remain fine. It’s clear that markets are hanging desperately to the notion of Chinese stimulus. Forgotten is that demand must slow first. Down into Q4.
Iron ore prices for September 6, 2018: Spot jumped. Paper more. Steel too. Port inventories are falling at a good clip down to 149.2mt. The iron ore market used to so pure. Today it is all noise and no signal. It’s obvious that steel demand is falling away, that there’s plenty of inventory, that mills
Iron ore prices for September 5, 2018: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel easing. Pulling a Costanza again. The worse the emerging markets and commodities bust gets the more the iron ore market expects Chinese stimulus. Falls still ahead.
Iron ore price for September 4, 2018: Spot up. Paper up. Coking coal up. Steel up. CISA output for mid-August fell away to hit exactly the same level as last year. There is plenty of steel. Demand is clearly weakening. Dead cat bounce.
By Leith van Onselen Within today’s dump of balance of payments data that feeds into tomorrow’s June quarter national accounts release was the important news that Australia’s terms-of-trade fell by 1.3% in seasonally adjusted terms but rose by 1.0% in trends terms: Over the year, the terms-of-trade rose by 2.1% in seasonally adjusted terms and
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for August, which increased 1.5% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – as well as by 1.8% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for August indicate that the index increased by 1.5 per cent (on a monthly
Iron ore prices for September 3, 2018: Spot was flat. Paper too. Coking coal futures are deflating. Steel is way too high given inventories are 1mt above last year and absolutely fine. The China steel PMI is still solid at 53.4 but fading. Prices are going to fall. The market is onto it with FMG
Iron ore price charts for August 31, 2018: Spot firmed. Paper fell. Steel is retracing. We’re into September and that is not good for iron ore: We may see the cycle distended a little by preparations for Winter shutdowns but I still think it will hold sway. Time to duck.
Iron ore prices for August 30, 2018: Spot flat. Paper jumped overnight but before Trump’s big bash. Steel has flamed out. The truth is out at Macquarie: The bank tracks Chinese imports via customs data and shipping information from exporters, and so far in 2018, iron ore imports appear to be flat year-on-year. That’s despite
Iron ore prices for August 29, 2018: Spot down. Paper down more overnight. Steel did OK yesterday. I still think the top is in here for the remainder of the year.
Via Platts: Open interest in iron ore futures traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange has fallen below 1 million lots in August, after peaking in April above 2.6 million lots. Iron ore open interest stood at 975,722 lots last Thursday, a year-to-date low, and at 981,858 lots on Monday. One lot is 100 mt. The
Iron ore price for August 28, 2018: Spot flat. Paper too. Steel fading still. No change in outlook, down into Q4.
Interesting to note that the Fortescue share price is again in free fall: It’s not a very pretty chart with support around $3 and that’s about it. The culprit is discounts that just won’t narrow, via Platts: Australian miner Fortescue Metals Group has maintained the discount for term contracts for 58.3%-Fe Fortescue Blend fines and
Iron ore prices for August 27, 2018: Spot down. Paper down. Steel down. I think the top is in here. The price signal from steel does not need to be this high and we’re entering the seasonally weak period plus Chinese Winter shutdowns. World Steel is still booming though: World crude steel production for the
Terrific stuff here from Westpac’s Justin Smirk: •Demand for iron ore has been very robust this year but more importantly there has been the collapse in Chinese ore production in response to industry reforms as well as a soft patch in imports. The more rigorous implementation of environmental policies has hit iron ore miners hard.
Iron ore prices for August 24, 2018: Spot firmed. Paper was flat. Steel fell. Rebar inventories are still one million tonnes higher than last year yet steel prices are 30% higher. Doesn’t make sense to me given even if Winter shutdowns are a little longer they we already know that idle capacity can cope. I
