Via Macquarie: China’s domestic thermal coal price continued to rise into September in spite of slower demand from power plants. Spot prices for 5,500kcal coal in QHD are reported to be over Rmb670/t this week, up from Rmb 620/t in the end of August, and official quoted BSPI climbed from Rmb579/t to Rmb583/t over the
Benchmark fell 30 cents to $68. Steel has not updated. Dalian is still falling. The FT has nice little wrap on things: “When profitability is really good, the marginal benefit from producing an additional tonne of steel is bigger,” says Macquarie analyst Serafino Capoferri. “So mills try to push as hard as they can on
It’s never a dull moment for bulks, via Credit Suisse: ■ Question: what would the iron ore price be if China’s steel output fell 180Mtpa to 670Mtpa? This is the output rate the Government is planning for four months starting 15 Nov—curtailing steel mills by 50% in five provinces near Beijing that produce 43% of
Iron ore price charts for September 19, 2017: And down we go. Tianjin benchmark tumbled $2,50 to $68.30. It is now falling faster than paper. Steel has not update but futures were hit, via Reuters: Chinese steel futures dropped to their weakest in almost a month on Tuesday amid worries that planned winter curbs may
Iron ore price charts for September 18, 2017: Tianjin spot fell 10 cents to $70.80. Spot formed overnight. We’re still waiting for a break lower in steel, the one missing ingredient for a big correction. It will surely come, via Reuters: Beijing will suspend construction of major public projects in the city this winter
Not news to MB readers but interesting texture via the AFR: But while Fortescue has historically received a discount of 10 to 15 per cent to the benchmark, in the 2017 financial year it achieved sales at a discount of 23 per cent. The gap widened to 27 per cent in the June quarter.According to pricing
Iron ore price charts for September 15, 2017: Tianjin spot slumped 3.4% to $70.90. Coking coal futures were eviscerated. Port iron ore stocks tumbled over 1.2mt to 132mt. The top is in here. Chinese data is softening. Credit is softening. Steel mills are going like the clappers to build stock before they’re shut-in for the
Credit Suisse is pulling back: Still long commodity producers, but less so ■ Everything is awesome: All of the three main macro drivers of the commodity producers have been supportive. Chinese fiscal policy has been in expansion mode, Chinese money supply has been growing and the US Dollar has been depreciating. Since the recent lows
Iron ore price charts for September 14, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 70 cents to $73.40. Paper was flogged into the close yesterday but recovered some ground overnight. Steel has not updated but futures fell. Yesterday’s China data showed clearly that demand is going to ease in the months ahead. But not crash. Floor area starts
Via Macquarie: The lump premium hit a record high of ~$25/t on September 8, according to MySteel. In this note, we take a deep dive in this niche segment of the iron ore market and highlight the key drivers behind the lump premium cycles. Panic buying by Chinese mills following government-led sinter production cuts
Iron ore price charts for September 13, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $74.20. Paper fell overnight. Coking coal is madly inflated. Steel price to come. Via Platts: High iron ore prices this year have been a function of strong steel prices and any weakening in the latter will likely dampen the benchmark raw material,
Iron ore price charts for September 12, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was down 60 cents to $74.20. Steel is still at the highs. Coals are sick. Given thermal ports are closing in China this can only be a temporary restocking pulse. More of the same until demand weakens.
Via Citi: The market is still digesting the potential impact of Hurricane’s Harvey, Irma and Katia on oil balances but focus is likely to soon turn to the IEA’s September OMR that is published this Wednesday. The Paris-based agency’s August report caused a stir given the sizeable downward revisions to its headline oil demand
Iron ore price charts for September 11, 2017: Tianjin benchmark ease 10 cents to $73.60. Paper took off overnight. Coking coal is wild. From Platts: China’s steel mills are opting to buy higher grade iron ore cargoes domestically and from the seaborne import market over readily-available mostly medium and lower grade port stocks as this
Dalian is trying repair overnight damage today: Big Iron is down sharply. BHP and RIO failed at largish double tops, at least for now… Big Gas is soft but the pensioner abuse specialists continue their predictable but appalling re-rating: Big Gold is off sharply. I remain a seller short term: Big Sleazy has caught a
Via the AFR: China has moved to restrict coal imports in an effort to provide further support to its local industry, a move sure to hurt Australian miners which have benefitted from big supply cuts on the mainland over the last year. The first sign of what is being described as an “unofficial” government policy
Iron ore price charts for September 8, 2017: Tianjin benchmark tumbled 3% to $73.70. Steel eased. Coking coal spot is still at an astonishing $209. Both paper and spot are starting to look a bit toppy here. Even the carnage in the USD failed to trigger any new bid. However, until steel weakens the jury
Port Hedland iron ore shipments for August are out and rebounded but remain soft relative to expanding capacity at 42.8mt: Korean shipments appear to be flattening out after the Roy Hill ramp up: Further rebounding ahead…
Dalian is firm today but going nowhere really: AUD is rampaging towards 81 cents: Which is capping Big Iron: And Big Gas: Big Gold is mixed: Big Sleazy is at new lows: Big Spruik is mixed: The ASX is at the brink again of its descending triangle: The rampaging AUD may push it off…
Via the AFR: Santos and Origin have inked a new deal to supply Chinese-controlled plastics maker Qenos with ethane until the end of 2019. Santos announced in November 2014 that it has signed a new five-year deal to supply ethane gas to Qenos in NSW. At the time, the deal was heralded as avoiding the potential loss of more
More excellent bulks material today from Macquarie: China commodities trip: Update on government policy and coal Following yesterday’s note on steel, we summarise the main takeaways regarding government policy and the coal market from our recent trip to China. Coal miners around the world have benefited from the Chinese government’s “276 working days policy”
DXY was weak again last night but could form a double bottom (or not): The Aussie fell back too and could form a double top (or not): It was weak against EM’s: Gold fell: Brent jumped on approaching hurricanes: Base metals lifted: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks rebounded: High yield did not: Us yields
Iron ore price charts for September 6, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 30 cents to $77.20. Paper was down again. Steel has not updated. We’re dancing on a pin head here. No changes to the outlook.
Dalian is trying to rebound: BHP is still nudging breakout: Big Gas continues its re-rating with exporters down and the domestic gougers flying: All I can say to that is, what a pack of bloody idiots we are. Big Gold is powering, working beautifully as portfolio insurance. I’m still a seller here for the short
Iron ore price charts for September 5, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 30 cents to $77.50. Paper fell sharply overnight. Rebar is at new highs. Retuers has texture: China’s iron ore futures dropped on Tuesday for the first time in four sessions after a fire at a government-owned steel mill raised concerns that planned safety inspections may
