Via Domain: Australian officials are increasingly concerned that trade negotiations between China and the United States will lead to a special deal between the two countries that displaces Australia’s exports, including coal, to its biggest market. China is likely to significantly increase imports of American coal from West Virginia, Donald Trump’s electoral heartland, if it
Via The West: China could slash its iron ore imports 40 per cent as its Government winds down its stimulus of an overpriced housing sector, which would have disastrous consequences for Australian iron ore producers, a conference in Perth was told yesterday. J Capital partner and iron ore and steel analyst Tim Murray said China’s
Iron ore prices for March 21, 2019: Spot flat. Paper too. Steel up. In news, Vale signaled another small mine had failed a dam test but that has been overshadowed b the Brucutu news. In the very short term a Pilbara accident might also drive prices: Port Hedland has already cleared ships. That’s a
Iron ore prices for March 20, 2019: Spot hammered. Paper worse. Steel fine. Chinese iron ore port stock lifted to 148.2mt last week. Bloomie has more on Brucutu: Bradesco BBI, Thiago Lofiego Positive development for Vale. However, it’s still uncertain if the company can regain the provisional operating license under which it operated the Laranjeiras
Iron ore price for March 19, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Steel stable. The news is all good for Vale this morning, via Vertical Group: VALE SAYS COURT ALLOWED OPS TO RESUME WITH LARANJEIRAS DAM. This news is effectively 30Mmtpa that just came back on-line, unexpectedly, for Vale. This quite bad for iron ore
The ACCC was out with its LNG net-back price yesterday: It’s calculations for net back are higher than mine largely because of this: For a given measure of Gladstone FOB prices in A$/GJ, the next step in the calculation of netback prices is to deduct LNG plant costs. For this, the ACCC has used estimates
Iron ore prices for March 18, 2019: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel down. Reuters has the rub: The Brazilian miner said on Saturday that it would cut production at an iron ore mine in the state of Minas Gerais with annual capacity of 12.8 million tonnes and will also suspend operations at its Doutor
Via Credit Suisse: The price of Australian thermal coal sold to China (5500kcal high-ash) is being hit relative to competitors, at odds with assurances by the Chinese and Australian Governments that there is no ban on Australian coal at China ports. Whether there is a ban or just restrictions, the price suggests importers are not
Iron ore prices for March 17, 2019: Spot down. Paper up. Steel down. Still no clarity here.
Talk about taking the mickey. Asian gas prices have cratered in the past few months, via Bloomie: Even cheaper prices are available in Europe. The current Asian price translates to an Australian gas price around $7. Yet, as of Friday, east coast prices are where they have been for six months at $10Gj. Moreover, the
As the idiotic debate around new coal fired power stations goes on, there is finally some good news in the fight against the real culprit in utility price spikes, the gas cartel. Prices for utility scale solar plus storage are now at parity with gas powered electricity: Costs have been falling at 20% per annum,
Iron ore prices for March 14, 2019: Spot still range trading. We still don’t know where it is going. Same for the broader ferrous complex. Yesterday’s Chines data suggested that a headwind is still developing in real estate with sales still falling year on year and starts beginning to catch down: That is, despite
Iron ore price charts for March 12, 2019: Spot bounced. Paper firmed. Steel jumped. There’s still no clarity here, a point made nicely by Clyde Russell: The first fact worth noting is that China, which produces just over half of the world’s steel, hasn’t really slowed output of the metal much, despite considerable media reporting of
Iron ore prices for March 11, 2019: Spot tumbled. Paper held up overnight. Steel is soft. Chinese port stocks of iron ore climbed above 147mt last week. Brazilian exports to China were fine in February, up 24% year on year. It’s still too early to say if the crisis has been over-egged and Vale
Iron ore prices for March 9, 2018: Spot crunched. Paper more so overnight. Coking coal too. Steel OK. Chinese trade data showed a mixed picture with steel export up decently year on year over Jan/Feb: But that is usually a bearish signal for Chinese steel demand which only ships more oversees when local conditions deteriorate.
Iron ore prices for March 7, 2019: Spot up. Paper down. Steel weak. Coking coal too. Still no clarity here. The base case remains a steady fade in prices from these levels provided there is worse Vale news.
Via the AFR: Historical prices for gas would not even cover the cost of production now, said Johanna Boothey, commercial head of ExxonMobil Australia, which spent $120 million on a fruitless two-well search for new gas in the Bass Strait last year and recently completed a $5.5 billion investment in a new gas development. …Cooper
Iron ore prices for March 6, 2019: Spot smashed. Paper soft. Steel stable. Coking coal too. Still waiting for the fog to clear.
Iron ore prices for March 5, 2019: Spot defied paper falls. Steel fell. Coking coal is stable. Platts describes the fog surrounding Vale today: The iron ore market could lose as much as 90 million mt/year of supplies from Brazil — about a quarter of the country’s total export capacity — from output curbs following
The east coast gas cartel of BHP/Exxon, Santos, Origin and Shell has always been a grave national security threat given energy is the lifeblood of the modern economy. But if you want to see a direct threat to the national interest emanating from the gouging quintet then Orica just provided it for you: Orica is weighing
Via Reuters: Five LNG import projects are vying to start up between 2021 and 2022, possibly forcing gas users in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria into more direct competition with Asian buyers for gas from northern Australia. Those states represent a yearly market of 420 petajoules (PJ), equivalent to 7.8 million tonnes
Iron ore prices for March 4, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Coking coal stable. Steel strong. We’re entering a seasonal period when iron ore would normally be falling but that has been badly compromised by the Vale accident and Chinese stimulus efforts such as they are. That has destocking mills battling with other extraneous
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for February, which increased 4.8% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and rose by 4.6% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index increased by 4.8 per cent (on a monthly average
by Chris Becker The cryptocurrency we love to hate is having a tough Monday morning with another weekend gapdown, falling to just above the $3800USD level: A lot of fingers burned from the recent uptick, with a big uptick of new entrants into the “scheme” as $15billion in market value was wiped off this morning.
Iron ore prices for February 21, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Steel up. Steel output remains very high. If bulks are really going to come off owing to weak demand I’s like to see output fall from these levels. Argus has some nice texture on mill raw materials management: Most mills surveyed by Argus
Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you. Via Reuters: Customs at China’s northern Dalian port has banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall coal imports for 2019 through its harbours at 12 million tonnes, an official at Dalian Port Group told Reuters on Thursday. The indefinite ban on imports from top supplier Australia,
Iron ore prices for February 19, 2019: Looks like for now Vale is priced given the overnight news did not support the market. Unless we see some more materially damaging developments, weakening Chinese demand may begin to ease prices henceforth.
Iron ore prices for February 18, 2019: Spot and paper up. Steel down. Ferrous and steel markets are headed in opposite directions. This is unsustainable as Chinese steel mill profits collapse. Normally, bulks would getting caned right about now but the artificial prop is Vale, via AFR: Brazil’s government on Monday banned new upstream mining
Iron ore prices for February 14, 2019: We may be setting some kind of trading range in the $80s here but we’ll have to wait and see. I still expect mills to destock violently the moment they feel secure about Vale supplies. The signs in yesterday’s Chinese trade data confirm as much. Iron ore imports
I gave up on the Baltic Dry many years ago when a shipping glut dislocated it from wider global economic activity. Is it time to revisit it? If so, it is not painting a pretty picture: There are a few reasons to be wary of the crash: China’s recent rolling import coal bans are piling
