Der, at Bloomie: More than $500 million worth of Australian coal is on ships anchored off Chinese ports, as a diplomatic spat between the two countries cuts into trade, idles a portion of the world’s dry bulk carriers and threatens to spiral into a humanitarian crisis. More than 50 vessels have been waiting a month
Iron ore prices for November 24, 2020: A weak response to the global fireworks from spot. Paper too. Perhaps some of the obvious cooling in underlying Chinese demand drivers is starting to permeate the market. Empties are still trending lower: Moreover, post-COVID global normalisaion is iron ore bearish. We can already see this in China’s
Iron ore prices for November 23, 2020: Spot hit. Paper too. Steel has not updated. Empties are still trending lower: The AFR is all guff all of the time: “We’ve seen China’s steel demand comfortably at all-time highs for some months now,” said NAB head of commodities research Lachlan Shaw. “[But] what was missing was
Iron ore prices for November 19, 2020: Everything up! You will read elsewhere that Chinese demand for steel is booming and that is driving up prices. This is wrong. This is pure seasonality and iron ore is driving up steel prices despite record-high inventories seasonally-adjusted: This is the year-end restock I have warned about for
Iron ore prices for November 19, 2020: Spot up again. Paper stalled overnight. Steel is excited for no apparent reason. There’s still more inventory than at any time ever: And empties are trending lower: I don’t expect activity to fall off a cliff or anything but underlying demand is not going to grow too much
Iron more price for November 18, 2020: Spot up. Paper is getting a bit silly. Steel has not updated. Empties are falling again: It’s not a great trend. It all looks like typical restocking though Vale may have spooked spot again: Another dam break would be disastrous for Vale and highly amusing for Australia during
Iron ore price for November 17, 2020: Spot to the oon. Paper more so. Steel too. Classic year-end restocking with a bit of falling DXY thrown in. Expect strong pricing to continue through NY. Empties are falling: In fact, most China macro data is weakening but I do not expect this catch up to iron
Iron ore prices for November 16, 2020: Empties have crashed again: Indeed, yesterday’s China data showed the real estate sector is fading fast. Prices are barely positive. The leading indicator of developer land sales are down 3.3% YTD. New starts are down 2.6% YTD and roughly flat now YOY for a few months. Chinese realty
Iron ore prices for November 15, 2020: Spot down. Paper stable. Steel too. CISA output remains very high. The reason why is vital to understand. Stimulus was not big enough to explain it. Via Gavekal: The imposition of restrictions on real estate financing has slowed land purchases. Robust growth in real estate fixed asset investment
Iron ore prices for November 12, 2020: Spot down. Paper more. Still waiting on steel. Empties are still fine if cooling: Aussie supply is pouring out with Port Hedland near record highs: No change from me. Firm prices through new year. La Nina risks in Q1. Down from there.
Iron ore prices for November 11, 2020: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel has not updated. Empties are fine: No surprises here. It’s the classic seasonal surge as mills restock for Q1 weather risks. I don’t think prices will go much higher but you never know. No change for me. Firm prices through new year
Iron ore prices for November 10, 2020: Spot up. Paper stalled. Steel has not updated. Empties are still solid: I doubt prices will get much higher despite the year-end restocking pulse. Vale is bringing an extra 50mt or right now. But I still expect firm prices right through Q1 from here, especially if La Nina
Iron ore prices for November 11, 2020: Empties are back bigly: The PBOC has started talking stimulus withdrawal, at Bloomie: China’s central bank once again raised the topic of exiting its monetary easing policies, in sharp contrast to the U.S. and Europe, where a resurgence in virus cases has forced governments there to consider more
Iron ore prices for November 6, 2020: Spot firm. Paper jumped Friday night, presumably on the Biden win, which makes little sense. Rebar is strong. October imports were also strong at 106mt and change. On the US election result, if Biden eases up on China tariffs then that will be bearish for iron ore at
Iron ore prices for Thursday 6, 2020: Everything is pretty much in equilibrium here. Empties included: CISA steel output remains insane: But there are two deal-breakers coming. Vale will be selling at an increased rate of 50mt per annum throughout the fourth quarter after output improvements and having restocked its supply chain. Then it adds
Iron ore prices for November 3, 2020: Spot fell. Paper more. Port inventories are restocking nicely with another six months to run: Empties are fading again. The growth rate trend is down: Brazil had another good month of shipments given October had fewer working days than last year: No change to the outlook. Firm across
The RBA has released its commodity price index for October, which rose 1.2% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – but fell by 0.3% over the year: Preliminary estimates for October indicate that the index increased by 1.2 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after
This time RBC: For some time we have been calling out not just the 2020 US presidential election itself as a potential source of uncertainty for gold, but rather that potentially volatile aftermath and uncertainty following it could prove a source of volatility and/or upwards price momentum for gold in our view. In fact, in
Iron ore prices for November 2, 2020: Spot lifted but paper was unchanged. Steel has not updated. The steel PMI improved but is still pretty ordinary: Steel inventories remain huge: Empties are back on track: It looks to me that seasonal weakness is over and restocking has resumed. Expect it to run for another two-quarters
Via Macro Voices: Erik: And where do you see the inflation story coming into this? Central Banks Must ‘Play Their Part’ Tian: So I think we need to think about inflation both from a structural point of view and a cyclical point of view. So the thing to say is cyclically, when unemployment rates are still
Iron ore prices for October 39, 2020: Spot up but paper down overnight. Steel has rallied in recent weeks so some pressure has come off the seasonal destocking. Empties have rebounded strongly now: The Chinese PMI was solid, driven, as usual, by construction: I will have the more granular steel PMI data tomorrow. So, we’re
Iron ore prices for October 29, 2020: Spot up. Paper to the moon with broader markets. Empties are back on track: Reuters has texture: Iron ore was also supported by lingering concerns over congestion at Chinese ports, and as investors waited for China’s economic blueprint to be laid out at this week’s Communist Party plenum.
Australia could literally bomb Beijing right now and it would happily keep taking our iron ore. The reason is simple. Iron ore is the key commodity input into CCP power. Only by sucking in a billion tonnes of the stuff can it sustain the useless building of empty stuff that keeps folks employed and not
Iron ore prices for October 28, 2020: Spot up. Paper up. Everything up. Empties are back: It is entirely possible that we’ve bottomed here. Year-end restocking is a very powerful force: I can’t see iron ore flying away as global markets melt but buying the crash in miners is a good short term play into
Iron ore prices for October 27, 2020: Spot was firm and everything else soft. Empty apartment sales have rebounded: Whatever the hiccup it is passed. So, I still see weakness over the next few weeks in line with broader markets then a resumption of bullish prices through new year looking for an ultimate top and
Iron ore prices for October 26, 2020: Spot down. Paper firmed overnight as broader markets tanked. Steel is softening. Chinese port inventories jumped above 128mt last week: This remains a bullish story given there is another 32mt to go. That said, the rate of climb is very sharp so mid-2021 will cover it off. Empty
Iron ore prices for October 23, 2020: Spot was down sharply. Paper too. CISA output was still extreme mid-October. Inventories remains stupid My guess is we’re getting ready for a puke lower here. There’s plenty of supply again with much more to come. Chinese demand looks good on an output basis but beneath that leading
Iron ore prices for October 22, 2020: Spot down. Paper down. Empty apartment sales have stabilised but that is not enough. They must grow or steel demand will shrink as catch-up growth rolls off: CISA is bearish: That’s only mill inventories. Trader inventories are also immense, combined for easily the highest ever seasonally-adjusted: There should
It likes to pretend it can hurt our commodities but, in the end, the Chinese paper tiger is desperately short of pretty much everything, via Bloomie: Mill shutdowns in China, along with weaker demand for textiles, had “turbo charged” a downturn in the market earlier in the year, Robert Hermann, managing director at adviser Mecardo,
Iron ore prices for October 21, 2020: Spot up. Paper up. Really just following broader trends of USD weakness. China’s empties are rebounding: ‘ It looks like sales have been pushed around a lot by stimulus-led discounting waves: But there are still signs of weakness creeping in. Price growth is weak, starts have softened and
