RIO ushers in iron more

From RIO’s freshly minted Dec QTR production report: Iron ore shipments and bauxite production guidance remain subject to weather and market conditions. Our guidance assumes development of the pandemic does not lead to government-imposed restrictions and widespread protracted cases related to new highly contagious variants with high severity, which could result in a significant number


Daily iron ore price update (brace!)

The ferrous complex fell further on January 17: Chinese data delivered pretty much what I expected. Property starts are in free fall, down 31% in December and at their deepest falls ever on year-on-year in the quarter: There is some offset in infrastructure coming. Pantheon: As with exports, the pivot toward consumption will likely fade


Morrison’s gas cartel to plunder Australia indefinitely

The Australia Institute has a new report out that should be the headline around the country but barely gets a mention: Australia’s giant offshore gasfields are paying almost no royalties, create few jobs and are a large and rising source of greenhouse gases, according to a new report from the Australia Institute. The “Gas-fired robbery”


Daily iron ore price update (commodity crazy town)

The ferrous complex has joined the commodity crazy town engulfing global markets. Everything was up on January 12, 2022: Commodity crazy town is here: A falling US dollar based despite Fed tightening. Strong US inflation. Chinese stimmies and OMICRON disruptions driving more inflation. This will now be a battle to the death between stagflationist robots


Daily iron ore price update (to the moon!)

The ferrous complex was strong on January 11, 2022 as everything jumped: Encouraging bulls, steel production launched in late December: Even more bullish, mill steel inventories plunged over the period. However, I’d suggest that this is largely thanks to traders snapping up steel stocks amid the mad rush. I will add that it is likely


Daily iron ore price update (seasonal help)

The ferrous complex was weak on January 10, 2022 as everything eased: There is some seasonal help coming from Brazil: Heavy rainfall in the iron ore hub of Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil, led to mining and railing disruption for Vale and other operators, supporting a recovery in benchmark China iron ore import prices. …Vale,


Commodities punch higher in 2021

As we slide into the end of the calendar year, performance charts are propping up and this one from trader Steve Burns showing the year to date (YTD) runs in commodities and other assets is fascinating: Big moves higher in fossil fuels after being oversold during the first phase of the COVID pandemic, but real


UBS: mining looking sour for 2022

UBS contend that 2022 will not the year for mining, as the macro backdrop weakens as global demand slows down post-pandemic amid tapering of stimulus and easing of supply constraints. They reckon to avoid iron ore and coal, with their new commodity forecasts are as follows:   We maintain a sector underweight but within that


Chinese energy crunch continues to wane

Chinese coal prices are still trending lower. Seaborne thermal coal has come off its latest spike: Inventories are still normalising: With demand now down materially on the year: China announced higher contract prices to local coal production robust for the future: China plans to raise the benchmark price for long-term coal contracts in 2022 after


Has China buckled on Aussie coal?

Has China buckled on Aussie coal? There are some signs that it has done so: Australian miners are increasingly optimistic they may be able to resume selling coal to China, after official data confirmed small volumes of Australian coal cleared the Asian superpower’s borders in October. China imported 2.78 million tonnes of Australian coal in


Daily iron ore price update (all bad)

The ferrous complex was hit on Friday 26th of November as the relief rally stalled then got infected with NU. Futures and steel were hammered: The latest drip of data is all bad. Mysteel’s weekly indexes are crap: Mid-November CISA output was terrible: Capital Economics is forcing me to review my assessment of the usefulness


Global energy falls off a cliff

It’s looking good for the transitory inflationists as energy prices free fall around the world. The oil price has flamed out as the US and China combine to thwart Goldman Sachs with releases of strategic reserves. Europe’s COVID outbreak and the Chinese property bust are not helping: Even Goldman admits a surplus now looms in