Commodities

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IEA: Oil prices to squeeze over shale boom

The IEA is on the charge about  the re-engagement of US shale oil as prices reach two year highs, which heightens the downside risk to both the market price and OPEC countries. From Bloomberg: U.S. oil output is set for “explosive” growth this year as prices rally, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. That was

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When will iron ore crash next?

When will iron ore crash next? Via Deutsche: Try April-June! There are good reasons for it. March marks the peak of the post Winter restocking and running into June we see steel mills selling inventory to raise year-end cash for taxes just as miners glut the market to reach year-end volume targets.

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Daily iron ore price update (China data)

Iron ore charts for January 18, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 50 cents to $74.85. Paper was stable. Steel firmed. Chinese data last night showed the impact of Winter shutdowns: The precipitous nature of these output pullbacks suggests firmly that we’ll see some pent-up demand when the restrictions are lifted in late March. That suggests that

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CBA: Iron ore gunna crash

Via Vivek Dhar, Mining and Energy Commodities Analyst at CBA: “We still anticipate iron ore prices to fall later this year on surplus concerns,” he said in a note released today. “Chinese iron ore supply, which is the most expensive in the world due to its low grade, will be key to this outcome.” Dhar

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Gottiboff misleads on gas crisis

Gottiboff is at it again today: There is a simple way to put eastern Australia on the track to much lower gas and power prices: appoint Peter Dutton as energy minister for a day. Australians, and particularly Victorians, are not being told the truth of how vast reserves of low cost gas are being concealed

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RIO hits iron ore production target

Via RIO today: Pilbara operations produced 329.8 million tonnes (Rio Tinto share 271.3 million tonnes) in 2017. Fourth quarter production of 87.9 million tonnes (Rio Tinto share 72.9 million tonnes) was three per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2016, reflecting the implementation of productivity projects across most sites. This strong performance was achieved

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Daily iron ore price update (ports OMG)

Iron ore charts for January 15, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell $1.80 to $76.50. Paper firmed overnight on the plunging USD. Steel eased. No need to adjust your TV, ports stocks did rise another 4.83mt last week to an astonishing 152.83mt. I’ll simply render this nice chart which shows the correlation between the Chinese housing and

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BHP doubles down on iron ore by dumping the future

It seems they only have steel rules and Terms of Trade charts that don’t go back before 2005 at BHP. Here’s the latest on the Not so Big Australian’s extremely risky commodity concentration plan. From Bloomberg: Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie wants to sell Nickel West because it’ll never be big enough to boost earnings meaningfully,

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Mining lobby reaps what it sowed on taxes

By Leith van Onselen The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) has joined the chorus demanding company tax cuts, claiming the industry is paying more than half of its profits in taxes. From The AFR: The Minerals Council of Australia’s annual tax survey, conducted by Deloitte Access Economics, claims the effective tax rate for the industry

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UBS upgrades iron ore for 2018

UBS giving the miners a lift today: UBS VIEW China’s property & infrastructure construction boom will slow in 2018e & 2019e, but we don’t expect a collapse, because i) slowing is by policy (tightening) design, ii) property inventory drawdown means developers will be building a higher share of (flat to lower) sales than last year,

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Daily iron ore price update (limit down)

Iron ore price charts for December 7, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell $1.30 to $66.40. Paper went limit down at the close yesterday but added a little overnight. Steel came off. The trigger for the bust was more futures price hikes, via Reuters: China’s commodity exchanges have hiked transaction fees and margin requirements for a range

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Daily iron ore price update (flame out)

Iron ore price charts for December 6, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell $3.10 to $67.70. Paper stabilised overnight. Steel is still very high. Texture from Reuters: Steel demand in China has been stronger than expected despite the seasonal slowdown during winter, with construction activity in eastern and southern parts of the country “quite robust,” said Richard

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Beijing Bob kills Adani funding

How to make friends and influence people, via the AFR: The chances of Indian conglomerate Adani building a giant coal mine in Queensland appear increasingly unlikely, after Chinese financial backing for the project failed to eventuate. In a blow to the coal lobby and other conservative groups, no Chinese bank has agreed to fund the

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Which battery commodity booms are real?

Via UBS: UBS View: EV sales forecasts upgrades drives higher raw material demand UBB’s global Autos team has just upgraded EV sales forecasts following our second UBS Evidence Lab survey of ~10k consumers in the six largest car markets. The survey found a positive trend in consumer interest in EVs. We now project 16.5m EV

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RBA commodity price index stabilises in November

By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for November, which registered a 0.5% rise SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – as well as a 2.2% increase in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for November indicate that the index increased by 0.2 per cent (on