Commodities

1

Aussie coking coal eaten by Cold War 2.0?

Via Domain: Australian officials are increasingly concerned that trade negotiations between China and the United States will lead to a special deal between the two countries that displaces Australia’s exports, including coal, to its biggest market. China is likely to significantly increase imports of American coal from West Virginia, Donald Trump’s electoral heartland, if it

3

Daily iron ore price update (Brucutu)

Iron ore prices for March 20, 2019: Spot hammered. Paper worse. Steel fine. Chinese iron ore port stock lifted to 148.2mt last week. Bloomie has more on Brucutu: Bradesco BBI, Thiago Lofiego Positive development for Vale. However, it’s still uncertain if the company can regain the provisional operating license under which it operated the Laranjeiras

6

Gas cartel rorts ACCC

The ACCC was out with its LNG net-back price yesterday: It’s calculations for net back are higher than mine largely because of this: For a given measure of Gladstone FOB prices in A$/GJ, the next step in the calculation of netback prices is to deduct LNG plant costs. For this, the ACCC has used estimates

9

China “avoiding” Aussie coal

Via Credit Suisse: The price of Australian thermal coal sold to China (5500kcal high-ash) is being hit relative to competitors, at odds with assurances by the Chinese and Australian Governments that there is no ban on Australian coal at China ports. Whether there is a ban or just restrictions, the price suggests importers are not

2

Daily iron ore price update (Mr Russell)

Iron ore price charts for March 12, 2019: Spot bounced. Paper firmed. Steel jumped. There’s still no clarity here, a point made nicely by Clyde Russell: The first fact worth noting is that China, which produces just over half of the world’s steel, hasn’t really slowed output of the metal much, despite considerable media reporting of

1

Daily iron ore price update (if not for Vale…)

Iron ore prices for March 9, 2018: Spot crunched. Paper more so overnight. Coking coal too. Steel OK. Chinese trade data showed a mixed picture with steel export up decently year on year over Jan/Feb: But that is usually a bearish signal for Chinese steel demand which only ships more oversees when local conditions deteriorate.

0

Gas cartel pumps more hot air

Via the AFR: Historical prices for gas would not even cover the cost of production now, said Johanna Boothey, commercial head of ExxonMobil Australia, which spent $120 million on a fruitless two-well search for new gas in the Bass Strait last year and recently completed a $5.5 billion investment in a new gas development. …Cooper

12

“Coal to Newcastle”. Aussie LNG import madness exposed

Via Reuters: Five LNG import projects are vying to start up between 2021 and 2022, possibly forcing gas users in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria into more direct competition with Asian buyers for gas from northern Australia. Those states represent a yearly market of 420 petajoules (PJ), equivalent to 7.8 million tonnes

1

Daily iron ore price update (all over the shop)

Iron ore prices for March 4, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Coking coal stable. Steel strong. We’re entering a seasonal period when iron ore would normally be falling but that has been badly compromised by the Vale accident and Chinese stimulus efforts such as they are. That has destocking mills battling with other extraneous

0

Commodity price index signals terms-of-trade boost

By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for February, which increased 4.8% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and rose by 4.6% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index increased by 4.8 per cent (on a monthly average

12

Bitcoin’s dead cat bounce hates weekends

by Chris Becker The cryptocurrency we love to hate is having a tough Monday morning with another weekend gapdown, falling to just above the $3800USD level: A lot of fingers burned from the recent uptick, with a big uptick of new entrants into the “scheme” as $15billion in market value was wiped off this morning.

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Australian dollar hammered as China bans Aussie coal

Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you. Via Reuters: Customs at China’s northern Dalian port has banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall coal imports for 2019 through its harbours at 12 million tonnes, an official at Dalian Port Group told Reuters on Thursday. The indefinite ban on imports from top supplier Australia,

3

Daily iron ore price update (Vale’s agony)

Iron ore prices for February 18, 2019: Spot and paper up. Steel down. Ferrous and steel markets are headed in opposite directions. This is unsustainable as Chinese steel mill profits collapse. Normally, bulks would getting caned right about now but the artificial prop is Vale, via AFR: Brazil’s government on Monday banned new upstream mining