Iron ore price charts for June 23, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 50 cents to $55.50. Paper faded. Steel has not updated. CISA steel output launched early June 5.4% to 1.86mt, indicating still good demand. In news, Roy Hill is struggling: Roy Hill is expecting to complete about 16 million tonnes of iron ore shipments in
Dalian continues its recent pattern of firming at night and sagging during the day today: Big Iron is mixed: Big Gas is still stinky: Big Gold is up: Big Bubble is reeling: And Big Liar is as mendacious as usual as REA breaks out: As Australia goes ex-growth so does it’s share market. Avagoodweekend.
Macquarie has released its monthly Chinese steel mill survey and it paints a picture of a sector in rude health: Opinions on the outlook for the steel and iron ore markets appear to have diverged in line with recent price performance. Steel mills and steel traders are more optimistic in our latest survey than
Iron ore charts for June 22, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 1% to $56. Paper fell late and overnight. Steel has not updated. From Reuters: Iron ore exports from India were down 53 per cent in the past two months as China, a major consumer, took better quality ore from Australia to feed its integrated steel
Dalian soft today which makes sense since its outlook is getting worse not better: But the technical action is enough to have reversed some of yesterday’s losses in Big Iron: Big Gas stinks of false hope today as it rises a little: Oil going sub-$40 in my view… Which means Big Gold is a buy
From Morgan Stanley: As part of the downside risk stress-testing, we ran our top down US oil production model under a broad $40-60/bbl WTI price range assumption in $5/bbl increments. Key take-aways are: – We estimate that US production will grow 800-1,050Mbbld exit/exit in 2017 with WTI in a broad $45-60/bbl range for the rest
The Aussie dollar was weak against DMs last night: Stronger against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil was smacked: Weirdly, base metals surged, probably on China stimulus hopes which are WAY premature: Big miners liked it: EM stocks held on: But US and EM high yield buckled: US bonds were sold and curve hit new flats: European
The oil crash is intensifying: It appears markets have finally come around to my view that there is no shortage at all. Libyan oil is poised to cross over 1mb/d and US shale is piling it on: Thus, markets are now seeking the US shale off switch by pushing energy bond yields higher: John Kemp
Iron ore price charts for June 21, 2017: Tianjin benchmark added $1 to $55.40. Paper took off overnight. Coking coal too. Steel is stuck. The bear market rally that has been trying and failing for two weeks finally gained a little traction. My guess is the trigger is the new liquidity management being undertaken by
Via the AFR: The UBS analysis comes just ahead of the introduction of the government’s controversial “domestic gas security mechanism”, which could cap LNG exports if it is triggered. But ironically the design of the mechanism means it would affect only Santos’s GLNG venture, rather than the two Queensland LNG projects that have extra gas
Dalian has opened flat: Big Iron has broken with FMG right at new intraday lows, BHP crashed through them, and even coconut vendor RIO under pressure: Big Gas is now burning out of control with STO pointing straight towards new 40 year lows: Big Gold is chopping wood in its correction: Big Bubble is bursting
The Aussie dollar fell against both USD and EUR last night: But was strong against EMs: Gold fell: Oil was hammered to new lows: Base metals rolled: Big miners were smashed (-3%+ each for RIO/BHP ADRs): EM stocks broke: EM high yield is looking toppy now: US bonds were bought and the curve flattened again: European
The great commodity bear market rally is over, apparently, via Macquarie: After the regular liquidity pushes of 2016, the Chinese government has now shifted to a tightening bias, propagating a destock cycle through the manufacturing chain. Chinese construction activity has been extremely strong, but we also expect sequential weakness in this area. To be clear,
Iron ore price charts for June 20, 2017: Tianjin spot fell 30 cents to $54.40. Paper was hit overnight. If that was supposed to be a bear market rally then the market is in deep trouble. Steel stable. World steel output growth is fading fast: World crude steel production for the 67 countries reporting to
Dalian is wandering aimlessly today: Big Iron is mostly up: Big Gas is burning: Big Gold is correcting: Big Bubble has had its run seemingly: Big Liar is soldiering on: And a bonus chart today, hope your enjoying Australian exceptionalism: If not, try the MB Fund launching July 1st with a 70% international equities allocation. Sign
The Aussie dollar fell against the USD last night but was still firm against EUR: And it remains firm against EMs: Gold was smacked: Brent tried and failed to rally: Base metals succeeded: Big miners too: And EM stocks: High yield is hanging on despite oil: US bonds were sold but the curve flattened again:
Iron ore charts for June 19, 2017: Tianjin benchmark tacked on 80 cents to $54.70. Steel is stable. Coals doing better. The iron ore market is trying to give us a bear market rally as we pass through Chinese peak demand season but it’s coming off more like a damp squib. No change to the
Dalian is holding up today: But Big Iron is getting hit with FMG at new closing lows as Citi downgrades: There is a very long and embarrassed list of brokers to follow… Big Gas is getting a little relief: Oil has further to fall… Big Gold is off as DXY rebounds: Big Credit is up
Oil bull Morgan Stanley capitulates today: The return of oil inventories to five-year average levels was characterised this week by the IEA as “the currency used to express re-balancing”. We still expect some draws in 2Q/3Q but on our estimates, a return to five-year average stock levels remains elusive for some time to come. The
File this one away under “driving through the rear vision mirror”: Iron Ore: The Bear is Coming — 2017 iron ore price downgraded from US$70/t to US$61/t, 2H17 price reduced from US$62/t to US$49.50/t, and 2018 by US$3/t to US$50/t. After IF shutdowns drove increased blast furnace utilization and iron ore to >US$90/t in
The Aussie dollar was up and away Friday night versus DMs: And EMs: Gold was weak: Oil firmed: Base metals too: Big miners were hit: EM stocks are consolidating: High yield has hit turbulence: As energy credit comes under a little strain: However US rigs still climbed another 6 to 747: US bonds were bought
Iron ore price charts for June 18, 2017: Tianjin spot rose 20 cents to $53.90. Paper was flat overnight. Steel is firming again. We may need to see rebar roll over before iron ore takes another material leg lower. Port stocks fell 1.1mt to 138.95mt. In news there is a little relief for FMG, via
Via Macquarie: All change for the met coal market After initial reports a few weeks ago, further details are coming to light about the shift of the hard coking coal contract to an index-based system. IHS has reported that Nippon Steel agreed to use spot index price average over March to May for calendar
Iron ore price charts for June 15, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose a sterling 20 cents to $53.70. Paper climbed overnight. Steel did yesterday. Who cares. From Reuters: Chinese rebar steel futures climbed 3 percent to a two-week high on Thursday after authorities said the world’s top producer has achieved 85 percent of its capacity
From Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher today on the domestic reservation mechanism: We believe there are better ways to manage this situation than government intervention that might expose the taxpayer to compensation payments while not delivering any public benefit. Remember this crisis is about pricing not supply, which is why I have questioned the net contributor
