Iron ore prices for February 25, 2020: Prices are treading water now rather than rising. I still say big falls are ahead as seasonal weakness in supply fades and steel inventories push mills to cut production owing to weak end-useer demand. Via Argus: Mills are meeting domestic orders for February that were received before the

This time rebar inventory: Nothing to worry about there. The rebar price has been rising in recent weeks: A few more weeks of shutdown, which is unavoidable, and that pile will touch the moon. Steel mills will have to cut production. Goodbye and good luck to iron ore.

Iron ore prices for February 24, 2020: Everything roughly flat. Iron ore port stocks fell to 128.6mt: I suspect virus-troubled local production may be supporting seaborne prices in the short term. I don’t expect it to last as the massive steel pile leads to output cuts soon. Chian remains substantially shut. If you’re looking at

Spot and paper up. No change. Restocking continues while the enormous steel pile keeps growing. China remains widely shut down. At some point soon the steel price is going to crash. It  will run as long as it runs.

Iron ore prices for Febraury 29, 2020: The miracle price boomlet goes on. Mills are restocking like zombies, via Bloomie: The collapse in economic activity amid China’s unprecedented measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak means there are few buyers of steel, which has sent prices tumbling and put margins under intense pressure. However it’s difficult

Seriously, why is the ferrous complex bid? Via Goldman: The only thing that will stop that mountain of steel from reaching the sky in the short term is large scale production cuts.

Iron ore prices for February 19, 2020: Spot is again struggling versus paper. Different miners are saying different things: Australian miner Fortescue said that its iron ore shipments remain on schedule and that it had not had any issues with customer payments as a result of the coronavirus outbreak in its main market of China.

Coronavirus leads to GDP downgrades The outbreak of the coronavirus has forced downward revisions to our GDP forecasts from our (US, China, & Global) economists (2020e GDP growth -20bp to 2.9%). The downgrades have been most severe in 1) China & 2) Q1 2020. While uncertainty over the severity and duration of the outbreak remains,

Here it is. El Dorado: The key, of course, is the realised price. Thanks Vale! At these kinds of prices, FMG is literally printing money. Roughly $7bn of it over the full year delivering a trailing P/E of just 5x. But is it sustainable? At 2019 prices, the profit is slashed in half and the

Iron ore price charts for February 18, 2020: Spot down. Paper too. I’ll just leave this here for general consumption: Not really a reason to bid. Still, steel mill output was off its face throughout January, via CISA: I am very much looking forward to the developing steel inventory mountain.

Via UBS: Checking in with Platts Steel Raw Material Analysts We hosted Paul Bartholomew (Senior Managing Editor, Steel Markets) and Jeffery Lu (Managing Editor, Met Coal) to discuss their respective markets and COVID-19. While the LT implications of the outbreak remain uncertain, the immediate impact on productivity is becoming apparent. Platts is concerned that the

Via the AFR: “You just have to look at the numbers of Chinese tourists and Chinese students that come to Australia – it’s significant – it’s in the millions,” JPMorgan Asset Management’s head of fixed income Bob Michele said. “Coming off the bushfires, and now with coronavirus, everyone is trying to estimate what the impact

Iron ore price for February 17, 2020: Spot is still running. Paper even harder. Port stocks fell a little. This is normal restocking for this time of year, so long as you overlook COVID-19. It doesn’t make sense to me given the size of the demand hit but it is at least arguable. And it

Via BHP just now: Six months ago, at the time of our full year results for the 2019 financial year, an air of prudent caution permeated commodity markets. On balance, events since that time have justified that caution. The result has been a mixed price performance by our key commodities.1 Demand for oil, metallurgical coal and copper was weaker

Iron ore prices for Febraury 14, 2020: Spot stable. There is evidence of manipulation in DCE paper. Every day last week it surged in the final minutes of trade amd physical has dislocated. If I had to guess I’d say the big miners, or trading allies, are behind it. Innews, the virus impact is still

Via Argus: Chinese steelmakers remain partially blocked from shipping steel and steel feedstocks as a result of transport restrictions across provinces and at ports. Government officials restricted deliveries to slow the spread of the coronavirus, with the most stringent controls in Hubei province, eastern China’s Zhejiang province and neighbouring areas. Beijing has urged businesses to restart,

Iron ore prices for February 13, 2020: The market calmed down a bit. Physical underperforming paper can signal toppyness. Via Reuters: China’s iron ore futures extended gains into a third straight session on Thursday as concerns over supply cuts from Brazil and Australia drove spot prices of the bulk commodity higher, but worries over the

Iron ore prices for February 12, 2020: Spot up strongly. Paper too. Steel less. Is it time for a virus boom? No. But at least there is now an argument for the price strength after Vale confessed yesterday, via the AFR: Vale previously pledged to produce between 68 million and 73 million tonnes of iron

Via Reuters: * The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, rose 7 points, or 1.7%, to 418. * The main index slid to its lowest level since March 2016 in the previous session. * Demand has already been hit strongly in China, which accounts for

Iron ore prices for February 10, 2020: Spot down. Paper too. Steel is holding. Iron ore port inventory has begun to climb, hitting 131.1mt last week. More of that ahead which will help absorb some volumes excess to demand. Nothing much else to say. We’re just waiting for the hammer to land.

Via the FT: Copper traders in China, the world’s largest buyer of the metal, have asked miners from Chile to Nigeria to cancel or delay shipments as the deadly coronavirus outbreak hits demand. …“Coronavirus has had a huge impact on copper demand as downstream users [involved in processing raw copper] have stopped acquiring raw material,”

Iron ore prices for 7th February, 2020: Spot up. Paper OK. Steel too. This is the calm before the storm. Or, more accutely, the calm thanks to the storm, Cyclone Damien, in the Pilbara, which has now passed. News via Platts: China’s finished steel consumption in February could be up to 43 million mt lower

Iron ore prices for February 6, 2020: Spot  and paper jumped on the tariff cuts but that won’t last. Coking coal is running on feared Chinese supply disruptions. I’m not sure why. Much of Chiense volumes are in the north west which is relatively virus clear. It’s n0t as if trains carry the virus, either.

Iron ore prices for February 6, 2020: Spot down. Paper down. Steel and coking coal up. There are concerns about coke as process plants shut down. Why that would lift coking coal I have no idea. It’s piling up. Via Platts: The outlook for iron ore is negative with steel demand seen weak due to

Iron ore charts for February 4, 2020: A snap back after yesterday is not a surprise. But all questions about demand and supply remain open and tilted bearish, via Mysteel: Tens of thousands of people in China alone are fighting against the virus and no one knows for sure how long the battle will last.