Iron ore prices for August 17, 2018: Tianjin spot still firming. Paper up overnight. Steel still strong. Port stocks are climbing again as stimulus hopes hold sway. No change to outlook. Firm until the Q4 correction.
Got some chart troubles today so here are the numbers: Tianjin benchmark spot: $66.90 (-15 cents) Dalian 6 month future: 494 Dalian 6 month coking coal 1266 Shanghai rebar futures 4122 No change to outlook. Firm headed into Q4 weakness.
Iron ore prices for August 15, 2018: Spot down. Paper caught contagion overnight. Steel is fine. At some stage in the next three months we’re going to see a goodly selloff. The question now is will that be a buying opportunity for 2019 as Chinese stimulus pours in or the beginning of the end for
Spot down. Paper down. Steel up. The last time steel was at these prices iron ore was trading at $180. Output is astonishing: Texture from Reuters: Mills in the world’s top steel producer churned out 81.24 million tonnes of crude steel last month, up 1.3 percent from June and 7.2 percent from the same month
Vai Damien Booey at Credit Suisse: Europe goes “cold Turkey” We have just published an article explaining why we are concerned about contagion risks from Turkey (attached). We argue that Europe is going “cold Turkey” in two respects: 1. The ECB has warned us about banks’ EUR exposure to Turkey. 2. The ECB still plans to go ahead with
Iron ore prices for August 13, 2018: The stimulus party rolls on, largely confined to futures markets. This is still not inconsistent with seasonal patterns, especially so since the Winter shutdowns bring forward demand. Rebar inventories are still falling at a decent clip even if well above last year. My outlook remains unchanged. Overnight Chinese
We all know how it ends. Eventually China is overwhelmed by its own bad debt. The dreams of empire crumble to empty vestiges, wealth greys with demographics, dynamism sinks into the rentier bog and endless growth into secular stagnation. This is China’s destiny and Australia will suffer for it. But in the meantime we are
Tianjin benchmark lifted 65 cents to $68.75. Paper fell overnight. Rebar inventories fell again last week but remains well above the lows of last year. CISA daily steel output is trending down solidly. Steel prices have clearly responded to easing Chinese monetary policy. But there is nothing here out of the ordinary yet in terms
Iron ore prices for July 28, 2018: Spot was up though paper fell overnight. Steel futures are in Nirvana. Rebar market tightened last week falling 1.8% to 4.88mt. Still solidly up on last year but tightening a little. We’re off to the races with Chinese stimulus and solid steel markets. I have no idea how
Via the AFR: Shell’s groundbreaking Prelude floating LNG plant off Australia’s far northwest coast has gone “live” ahead of the start of production later this year, chief executive Ben van Beurden has confirmed. LNG and liquefied petroleum gas have both been introduced into the plant in preparation for commissioning and testing of processes and systems
Via RBC: The Chinese economy has stayed resilient through the first months of 2018, but the combination of an expected cyclical slowdown, increasingly challenging monetary conditions and increasing risks of tariffs to the wider economy points to a slowdown in Chinese steel demand in the second half of the year. We see a near-term destocking
Via UBS today: UBS View: Prices lowered modestly as trade wars escalate Trade tensions have escalated. Following the first round of new tariffs on two-way trade, the US has identified another US$200bn for a 10% tariff, potentially from September. Our China, US & ASEAN economists’ downgraded growth. Higher trade barriers equal lower trade volumes &
Spot fell. Futures were raided overnight. Perhaps by a big miner. Steel is softening. No change to outlook. Firm into end Q3 then down. World Steel reported June output: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 151.4 million tonnes (Mt) in June 2018, a 5.8% increase
FMG is out with its latest production report and it’s not good news for the fan boys: In short: strip ratios and costs up with a bogus outlook for oil prices; overburden up; volumes up; prices down and discounts up; capex up to lift grades but only 60% even as BHP, RIO and Vale all do
God save us from the ACCC on energy, via the AFR: “Get ready for mass job losses,” Garbis Simonian, managing director of NSW gas user and wholesaler Weston Energy, said of prospects for gas prices to rise beyond the present level of about $10 a gigajoule, which is already straining many buyers. …”We certainly don’t
Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse today: Extreme easing measures from China Over the past week or so, Chinese policy makers have announced some rather extreme easing measures to combat the slowdown in train: 1. Renewed fiscal stimulus: The government will allow firms to deduct 75% of their research and development expenses from tax, which could
Via the AFR: Only LNG imports can save the Australian government from a nightmare scenario of having to choose between breaking gas export contracts with Asian buyers or subjecting the east coast to real supply shortages, according to the respected energy analyst that sounded the alarm on the “slow train crash” looming in the market
Iron ore price charts for July 24, 2018: Spot firmed. Paper too. Coking coal to the moon, gripped by Chinese stimulus fever. The new measures are not material in context. It’s growth slowdown support not a new credit boom (yet). It doesn’t change my outlook which I already lifted on better housing. It is for
Could not agree more. From the always excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: CNY and US Treasuries weaken together Over the past few days, we have seen the CNY/USD depreciate sharply, and US Treasury yields spike higher. The two developments could be correlated. A weaker CNY implies that the PBoC is having to combat more
Via Reuters: Funds have turned net sellers across the LME spectrum, betting that things are only going to get worse. Contrarians, however, have started to emerge, arguing the sell-off has gone too far. China is still the driver of industrial metal prices, and signs of a loss of growth momentum in the world’s single largest
Iron ore price charts for July 23, 2018: Spot is finally being dragged up a little by steel. Port stocks were up slightly last week. It’s all pretty predictable seasonal strength. Next big move remains down. Look to September barring any trade war shock.
Never a dull moment with Cliffs managing director Lourenco Goncalves: “The shift toward higher grade is there to stay, the shift toward pellets is there to stay, and BHP and Rio Tinto are on the path to become the next Fortescue, and Fortescue is already on the path to become the next Atlas,” said Mr Goncalves
Iron ore prices for July 20, 2018: Yawn. The equilibrium is about exciting as Valium conference. Everything is waiting. Next big move is down.
Via Moody’s: Base Metals Price Drop Suggests All Is Not Well Though it goes practically unmentioned, one of the more unexpected developments of late has been the stunning collapse of Moody’s industrial metals price index. In part, the industrial metals price index’s average of July-to-date is a deep 8.2% under its June 2018 average because
Iron ore prices for July 19, 2018: Spot up. Paper down. Steel firm. We’re still in the equilibrium. History is repeating for miners. We already have BHP, RIO, FMG and Vale all investing heavily in high grade output. Now India joins them, from Creamer’s: Information and data sourced from industry indicate that overseas shipment and
It’s all garbage: India’s renegotiated gas import deal with Russia’s Gazprom will save between Rs 8,500 crore and Rs 9,500 crore over the contract period ending 2040, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said today. State-owned gas utility GAIL India Ltd had in January taken advantage of the Russian company’s inability to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the
Iron ore prices for July 18, 2018: Spot firm. Paper up overnight. Steel firm. Nothing happening here. Still see the next big move as down in September.
Following RIO comes BHP: Like RIO, BHP could add 20mt at the drop of a hat. It is edging that way. There was also this: Shares will take a hit on the Samarco charge but be offset by higher production.
Iron ore prices for July 17, 2018: All prices are still running on the spot. The recent wave of Chinese data has lifted my expectations for the slow slowing of Chinese growth and thus bulk demand. Infrastructure is coming off hard: But it will be supported by OBOR exports. As well, housing prices and starts
Booming output and sales for RIO’s second quarter production report: With autohaul on track (pardon the pun) it could easily add another 20mt. I expect it will next year as prices slip and the market share battle returns.
