Iron ore prices for February 25, 2020: Prices are treading water now rather than rising. I still say big falls are ahead as seasonal weakness in supply fades and steel inventories push mills to cut production owing to weak end-useer demand. Via Argus: Mills are meeting domestic orders for February that were received before the
Iron ore prices for February 24, 2020: Everything roughly flat. Iron ore port stocks fell to 128.6mt: I suspect virus-troubled local production may be supporting seaborne prices in the short term. I don’t expect it to last as the massive steel pile leads to output cuts soon. Chian remains substantially shut. If you’re looking at
Iron ore prices for Febraury 29, 2020: The miracle price boomlet goes on. Mills are restocking like zombies, via Bloomie: The collapse in economic activity amid China’s unprecedented measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak means there are few buyers of steel, which has sent prices tumbling and put margins under intense pressure. However it’s difficult
Iron ore prices for February 19, 2020: Spot is again struggling versus paper. Different miners are saying different things: Australian miner Fortescue said that its iron ore shipments remain on schedule and that it had not had any issues with customer payments as a result of the coronavirus outbreak in its main market of China.
Coronavirus leads to GDP downgrades The outbreak of the coronavirus has forced downward revisions to our GDP forecasts from our (US, China, & Global) economists (2020e GDP growth -20bp to 2.9%). The downgrades have been most severe in 1) China & 2) Q1 2020. While uncertainty over the severity and duration of the outbreak remains,
The one commodity market that is behaving rationally about global growth right now is oil. The world is swimming in the stuff despite oodles sitting on the sidelines. Chinese demand is down 4mb/d. There has been some offset in supply thanks to Libyan troubles removing 1mb/d but nobody there has much incentive to keep the
Via UBS: Checking in with Platts Steel Raw Material Analysts We hosted Paul Bartholomew (Senior Managing Editor, Steel Markets) and Jeffery Lu (Managing Editor, Met Coal) to discuss their respective markets and COVID-19. While the LT implications of the outbreak remain uncertain, the immediate impact on productivity is becoming apparent. Platts is concerned that the
Via the AFR: “You just have to look at the numbers of Chinese tourists and Chinese students that come to Australia – it’s significant – it’s in the millions,” JPMorgan Asset Management’s head of fixed income Bob Michele said. “Coming off the bushfires, and now with coronavirus, everyone is trying to estimate what the impact
Via BHP just now: Six months ago, at the time of our full year results for the 2019 financial year, an air of prudent caution permeated commodity markets. On balance, events since that time have justified that caution. The result has been a mixed price performance by our key commodities.1 Demand for oil, metallurgical coal and copper was weaker
Via Argus: Chinese steelmakers remain partially blocked from shipping steel and steel feedstocks as a result of transport restrictions across provinces and at ports. Government officials restricted deliveries to slow the spread of the coronavirus, with the most stringent controls in Hubei province, eastern China’s Zhejiang province and neighbouring areas. Beijing has urged businesses to restart,
Iron ore prices for February 13, 2020: The market calmed down a bit. Physical underperforming paper can signal toppyness. Via Reuters: China’s iron ore futures extended gains into a third straight session on Thursday as concerns over supply cuts from Brazil and Australia drove spot prices of the bulk commodity higher, but worries over the
Iron ore prices for February 12, 2020: Spot up strongly. Paper too. Steel less. Is it time for a virus boom? No. But at least there is now an argument for the price strength after Vale confessed yesterday, via the AFR: Vale previously pledged to produce between 68 million and 73 million tonnes of iron
Via Reuters: * The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, rose 7 points, or 1.7%, to 418. * The main index slid to its lowest level since March 2016 in the previous session. * Demand has already been hit strongly in China, which accounts for
Iron ore price for February 11, 2020: Spot roared. Paper too. And steel. It’s hard to believe that this is the bottom but who knows? The newsflow is not encouraging, via SCMP: New homes sales declined by 56 per cent year on year in 17 major mainland China cities, including Shanghai and Nanjing, during the
It’s not clear why but it’s looking pretty excited: There’s no news that I can find beyond some snippets from Brazil: For the first five working days of February, soybean exports declined to 198,600 tonnes per day on average from 263,500 tonnes per day for February 2019, according to Economy Ministry figures. Iron ore exports
Hoocoodanode? The Australian dollar is trading right at the breakdown line: Bonds are bid: XJO is absurdly high for the virus context: Big Iron is beginning to come apart. I’ll take that FMG blowoff day a few weeks ago straight to the pool room: Big Gas free fall: Big Gold is bizarrely unpopulsr: Folks prefer
Via the FT: Copper traders in China, the world’s largest buyer of the metal, have asked miners from Chile to Nigeria to cancel or delay shipments as the deadly coronavirus outbreak hits demand. …“Coronavirus has had a huge impact on copper demand as downstream users [involved in processing raw copper] have stopped acquiring raw material,”
Iron ore prices for 7th February, 2020: Spot up. Paper OK. Steel too. This is the calm before the storm. Or, more accutely, the calm thanks to the storm, Cyclone Damien, in the Pilbara, which has now passed. News via Platts: China’s finished steel consumption in February could be up to 43 million mt lower
Iron ore prices for February 6, 2020: Spot and paper jumped on the tariff cuts but that won’t last. Coking coal is running on feared Chinese supply disruptions. I’m not sure why. Much of Chiense volumes are in the north west which is relatively virus clear. It’s n0t as if trains carry the virus, either.
Via The Australian: “LNG demand has fallen off a cliff since January. An LNG trader just told me Chinese demand has ‘disappeared’, and buyers will be looking at all options.” The move could prove a major risk for Australia’s LNG export industry, which supplied 46 per cent of Chinese LNG in the 2019 financial year,
Iron ore charts for February 4, 2020: A snap back after yesterday is not a surprise. But all questions about demand and supply remain open and tilted bearish, via Mysteel: Tens of thousands of people in China alone are fighting against the virus and no one knows for sure how long the battle will last.