Has China buckled on Aussie coal?

Has China buckled on Aussie coal? There are some signs that it has done so: Australian miners are increasingly optimistic they may be able to resume selling coal to China, after official data confirmed small volumes of Australian coal cleared the Asian superpower’s borders in October. China imported 2.78 million tonnes of Australian coal in


Daily iron ore price update (all bad)

The ferrous complex was hit on Friday 26th of November as the relief rally stalled then got infected with NU. Futures and steel were hammered: The latest drip of data is all bad. Mysteel’s weekly indexes are crap: Mid-November CISA output was terrible: Capital Economics is forcing me to review my assessment of the usefulness


Global energy falls off a cliff

It’s looking good for the transitory inflationists as energy prices free fall around the world. The oil price has flamed out as the US and China combine to thwart Goldman Sachs with releases of strategic reserves. Europe’s COVID outbreak and the Chinese property bust are not helping: Even Goldman admits a surplus now looms in


China fixes energy, Europe breaks it

The Chinese energy crisis is over. Coal output is surging: The one thing that China has plenty of is coal and it’s digging it up at record pace. Inventories and demand are now approaching normal: This is crashing Chinese coal prices for both thermal at $120: And coking at $300: Seaborne prices for thermal coal


Daily iron ore price update (yawn rally)

The ferrous complex popped on November 11, 2021 with spot and steel but paper flamed out overnight: The market is trying to get excited by yesterday’s wave of policy rumours. But, the truth is, they are policy calibration not a swing to broad stimulus so the downside case for Chinese construction is intact if marginally


Global energy deflates some more

More deflation yesterday in global energy markets and it can’t come soon enough. Thermal coal led the way: Coking coal bucked the trend: JKM sagged as well: Along with European gas: It’s still about Putin: The resumption of Russian gas flows “have calmed traders’ nerves and prices after a week of volatility,“ said Emily McClain,


Iron ore catastrophe as China goes ex-growth

The ferrous complex was pretty wild on November 10, 2021 as spot tumbled but steel surged and paper gained overnight: Here it is in black and white from Wall Street’s Goldman Sachs: 2021 has been a year of change in China, with policymakers continuing normalizing macro policies and introducing regulatory measures in numerous sectors. While


Goldman doth protest too much about commodities, methinks

Every week the Goldman commodities team puts out the same note repackaged as new: Volatility and tighter spreads go hand-in-hand. As the global energy crisis continued to grip markets in October, first coal-to-gas then gas-to-oil switching contributed to broad tightness in energy markets, with spillover to non-energy markets. Stretched systems leave physical markets exposed to


Global energy prices smashed

It’s being led by China where thermal coal prices re-entered free fall yesterday: Significantly, this is happening despite the NDRC trying to slow it down which tells us that the market is capitulating. Seaborne thermal rolled and will catch up in due course: Coking coal appears to be breaking down as well. I have never


Putin delivers second round energy shock

After a couple of weeks of things getting better for global energy, Russia has decided to make things worse again: In late October, the market rejoiced and nat gas prices puked (even as we warned this was just the latest joke the Kremlin was playing at gullible Europe’s expense) after news that Russian President Vladimir Putin had


China’s coal glut takes shape

This is what happens when you get an artificial energy panic leading to draconian intervention to stabilise prices owing to politics: China’s daily coal output hit 11.7 million tonnes on November 3, close to the highest level this year, and output is expected to increase further as planned maintenance at coal mines gradually ends, the


Trade surplus dives on iron ore bust

The ABS has just released trade data for September, which posted a $2.5 billion decline in Australia’s trade surplus on falling iron ore prices: Goods and services credits (exports) fell $3,081 million (6%) to $44,969 million: Whereas goods and services debits (imports) fell $586 million (2%) to $32,725 million driven by continued global supply chain