Daily iron ore price update (contagion)

Tianjin benchmark fell 40 cents to $63.85. Coking coal is getting the treatment. Steel is fading. Hard to know where we go from here. We’re entering a seasonally strong period for prices but the combined Fed tightening/emerging market crisis and Trump trade war is developing into a very serious headwind. China knows it, via Reuters:


The persecution of AGL is pure sovereign risk

Via the AFR: AGL Energy’s proposal to import LNG into Victoria is understood to be driving a push to force a restructuring of the utility or impose conditions around the plant’s operations amid worries it will only cement the company’s strong market position in the state suffering most from high gas prices. The debate around


Is the bottom in for Bitcoin?

The old adage in investment markets is when everyone is bearish, you should be bullish. Can that be said of cryptocurrencies? Recently, the Bank for International Settlements – the central bank’s central bank – came out with a damning report into the market for “alternative” currencies, pointing to the major flaws of scaleability and trustworthiness


Why it’s time to sell miners

The AFR is celebrating the new mining boom: A $2 billion acquisition spree by South32 and Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has underscored the more upbeat outlook on commodity prices among industry heavyweights, with the scramble to buy or develop world class assets and infrastructure heating up as the world’s largest miners emerge from years of


Daily iron ore price update (lifting price outlook)

Iron ore prices for June 12, 2018: Tianjin benchmark lifted 25 cents to $65.95. Paper was flat overnight. Steel is stalled. The Chinese stock draw down is slowing as noted yesterday: “As the low season for steel demand is approaching, price hikes at mainstream steel firms helped to stabilise market sentiment,” said analysts at Orient


East coast gas farce doubles

Yes, somehow the farce has doubled in just a few days. Last week it was Twiggy Forrest importing gas to NSW. Now it’s AGL to Victoria: AGL Energy has struck several deals for its proposed liquefied natural gas import jetty at Crib Point in Victoria, which could help deliver more gas to Victoria and South


Australia’s terms-of-trade rises in Q1

By Leith van Onselen Within today’s dump of balance of payments data that feeds into tomorrow’s March quarter national accounts release was the important news that Australia’s terms-of-trade has risen by 3.3% in seasonally adjusted terms and by 1.6% in trends terms: Over the year, the terms-of-trade fell by 2.6% in seasonally adjusted terms and


Twiggy Forrest’s east coast gas play will dramatically raise prices

Andrew Forrest’s new east coast gas play is just another disastrous chapter in Australia’s gas monstrosity. Via AFR today: AIE is the sponsor of not one of but three separate plans to import LNG for sale into domestic gas markets. Forrest has involved himself though his privately owned energy play, Squadron Energy. He was introduced


What do new US steel tariffs mean?

Via the ABC: The Trump administration’s announcement it will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Europe, Mexico and Canada has drawn swift vows of retaliation from key allies, inflaming trade tensions and sending stock markets sinking. The administration’s move threatens to inflate prices for US consumers and companies and heighten uncertainty for businesses


Daily iron ore price update (astonishing steel boom)

Iron ore prices for May 31, 2018: Tianjin benchmark lifted 30 cents to $64.30. Paper lifted overnight. Coking coal is off to the races again. Steel prices are firm. CISA output for major mills reached an astonishing 2mt per day in mid-May. Literally off my chart. That this extraordinary output is transpiring in conjunction with