Iron ore prices for April 19, 2018: Tianjin benchmark lifted $1.85 to $68.30. Paper was limit up at the close yesterday but came off overnight. Steel rose. Citi captures the best way to think about the Chinese easing: Back in November the PBoC introduced what some have termed ‘Yield Curve Control With Chinese Characteristics’ when
Iron ore prices for April 18, 2018: Tianjin benchmark added $2 to $66.45. Paper jumped overnight. Steel yesterday. Here’s the driver of the pop: China slashed the RRR for banks. This will free up a bit of lending. However, the PBOC has also been tightening money market rates. That said, bond yields have broken down
From RIO: Rio will have a accelerate modestly from there to meet the annual volume goal which is pretty normal.
Iron ore prices for April 17, 2018: Tianjin benchmark lifted 40 cents to $64.45. Paper was up overnight on a PBOC RRR cut. Coking coal too. Steel is range trading still. CISA late March output for major mills barely shifted and as you can see and has closed to zero growth year on year. Yesterday’s
Tianjin benchmark fell $1.20 to $64.05. Steel is range trading. Coking coal is weak. Iron ore port stocks eased last week ad did rebar inventories. No change. We’re going lower. One reason why is that Vale has some serious catching up to do on volumes: The world’s top iron ore producer said that heavy rains
Via Xinua: China will introduce foreign investors to trade in domestic iron ore futures from May 4, according to the country’s securities regulator. The iron ore futures are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which rolled out rules in late March to guide foreign investors to participate in the market and took a market test
Iron ore prices for April 13, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 50 cents to $65.25. Paper fell back overnight. Coking coal continues to fall. Friday’s China trade numbers had a little rebound in steel exports to 5.65mt: We can expect that to continue as the Chinese steel price falls, though yesteryear’s boom will not return. We
Via The West: Mt Gibson Iron boss Jim Beyer says the wide price spread across ore with varying iron ore grades is here to stay. Speaking after the miner released its March quarter report, Mr Beyer said while there would be “pinching and swelling” based on seasonal demand and short-term, city-specific policy changes in China,
Iron ore prices for April 12, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 0.55 to $64.75. Steel is marking time. My view remains the next big move is down. Coking coal is breaking. Reuters has texture: Coking coal futures in China fell almost 4 percent on Thursday and iron ore also slipped, pressured by worries that demand for
Via The West: MinRes announced a $280 million, all-scrip bid for Atlas on Monday, which would give its shareholders one new MinRes share for every 571 Atlas shares they hold. The offer values Atlas about 3¢-a-share, representing a 59 per cent premium to its last traded price of 1.9¢ before the offer was announced. Atlas’
Iron ore prices for April 11, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was down $1.65 to $64.20. Paper held on overnight. Coking coal futures are breaking. Steel is soft. China is slowing. It always begins in the PPI. Some more on that from Vertical Group: FIRST… THE “HARD DATA”. Last night, China released factory inflation numbers (i.e., PPI), which slowed for
Iron ore prices for April 10, 2017: Tianjin benchmark up $1.80 to $65.85. Paper up more overnight. Steel too yesterday. Rebar inventories are running down now which is perfectly normal. CISA steel mill output rose 3% mid-March to 1.78mt per day. It should converge with last year’s output numbers over the next few months
Iron ore prices for April 9, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose $1.05 to $64.05. Paper jumped overnight though that was before markets calmed down. Steel is still soft. Chinese iron ore port stocks fell a bit to 161.o3 last week. The news is more low grade rationalisation, via AFR: The yawning gap between the prices that
The Office of the Chief Economist (formerly BREE) is out with its March QTR outlook. It’s up to its old tricks raising the outlook: Prices are not going remain so far above historical averages. Sorry. Iron ore is too high: As BREE itself notes, Chinese steel production has peaked and will fall from here (probably
Iron ore prices for April 4, 2018: Tianjin spot fell 80 cents to $63. Paper crashed late yesterday. Coking coal is still holding up. Chinese markets are now closed for two days. More from Platts on coking coal: Met coal premium low-vol Platts spot prices averaged $228.47/mt FOB Australia in Q1, up from $204.67/mt FOB
Via UBS: Is demand OK given some weaker signals in 1Q18? A key question was the strength of demand given weak PMIs in Feb-18 and large inventory builds through Feb+Mar-18. We learned that demand had been held back through these months, reflecting: A later spring festival than usual, where many firms and
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for March, which fell by 0.6% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – but increased by 1.0% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for March indicate that the index decreased by 0.6 per cent (on a monthly
Iron ore prices for April 3, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $1.60 to $63.80. Paper fell further overnight. Coking coal is falling less (so far). Chinese rebar inventories have begun to fall as per normal after the early year restock. It’s too early to gauge the pace of the draw down as a measure of underlying
Via the AFR: US private equity firm Harbour Energy has renewed its takeover tilt for Santos, lobbing a $13.5 billion cash takeover offer with a high enough price to get engagement from the board, but with foreign investment approvals still outstanding. The $6.50 a share proposal is the fourth from Harbour after two made in
Iron ore prices for April 2, 2018: Tianjin benchmark lifted $2.30 to $65.40 over Easter. Paper was strong overnight. Steel isn’t. Chinese iron ore port stocks climbed again to 161.68mt. That we’ve shed 20% in price while these stocks have risen to new highs tells you that speculators are yet to even begin selling and
Via the AFR: Victoria will experience significant gas shortages within three years unless additional supply is brought online, which could have flow-on effects for the whole National Electricity Market, according to a new report by the Australian Energy Market Operator. The report – which mirrors similar concerns about NSW’s gas supplies and prompted Prime Minister Malcolm
Iron ore price charts for March 28, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 40 cents to $63.05. Paper was stable overnight. Coking coal is catching down. Steel bounced a little. This is not over by a long shot. May is the weakest month on the iron ore calendar. June is almost as bad as mills destock into
Here’s the chart: I don’t think I have ever seen a more perfect bearish descending triangle pattern. It’ll need to close here or lower to confirm the break. The target price is anybody’s guess but new lows are quite possible. Weighing today is the 58% iron ore is at $37.44. I reckon it’s headed deep
Iron ore prices for March 27, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 40 cents to $63.45. Paper tumbled overnight. Steel rebounded yesterday. Not much of a rebound. All charts have glaringly bearish descending triangle patterns. The key chart is Dalian six month futures which is approaching major support in the 400yn range. Any break of that will
Via FMG just now: The chart is now right at the cliff’s edge of the monster descending triangle pattern: It’s a long way down from here. There are broader implications. Where FMG goes, Australia follows. The big iron ore discounts are also raising the net iron ore price for the Budget. By my calculations, it
Iron ore prices for March 26, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $1 to $63.05. Paper was stable overnight. Steel is tumbling still. Rebar inventories have begun to fall, down 3% to 9.49mt which is normal. No change to outlook. As steel margins falls so will the ferrous inputs. We’re going much lower yet. World Steel released
Via the AFR: The federal government is planning to toughen up on allowable deductions under the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax but is expected to exempt existing projects from the new regime to avoid the creation of sovereign risk. Sources have said the changes, to be announced at or around the May budget, will lead to
Iron ore prices for March 23, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was thrashed -5.4% to $64.05. Paper stabilised overnight but that was before broader markets fell away. Steel is getting hammered. We’ve much lower to go yet. My targets remain 300o yuan for rebar, $50 for iron ore and 1000 yuan for coking coal in the next three
The Australian dollar is still holding around 77 cents: Bonds are bid, especially at the long end: XJO is down the better part of -2%: Dalian has crashed: And Big Iron is going with it. FMG is about to test its $4.50 support. When it breaks look out below: Big Gas is OK but is
Iron ore price for March 22, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 20 cents to $67.70. Steel is breaking down. Coking coal too. CISA early March steel output collapsed 7.2% in an unusually steep post-restock fall. Reuters sums it up nicely: Steel demand typically improves from mid-March in China after a slowdown for the week-long Lunar New
