Zoltan the Magnificent gonged commodity top

There is no hotter name in market economics right now than Zoltan Poszar. FTAlphaville singles him out for hagiography: There are financiers whose names adorn gallery wings and university dormitories. The world of money has even yielded a few who can be identified by first name only — at least to insiders. But there is


Daily iron ore price update (still terrible)

The ferrous market sort of bounced on Friday June 24: Futures pooped overnight with the wider market rally. News remains dubious: While “market confidence has been restored to a certain extent”, Sinosteel Futures analysts said the absence of any additional and specific economic stimulus measures from Beijing will limit any price gains for now. In


And now for a copper glut…

The copper chart is not pretty. After being driven to all-time highs by Wall Street spruikers it is now crashing: The long-term story for copper is no shortages at all. The great EV and power transformations can largely be absorbed by recycling.  There is also plenty of supply coming on stream in the next few


The commodities bubble begins to burst

Goldman’s commodity bubble-blowers are capitulating: Macro markets today are facing a navigational challenge worthy of Odysseus. In the Greek myth, Odysseus chose to risk his ship by sailing close to the rocks of Scylla rather than risk being pulled under by the whirlpool Charybdis. In our view, policymakers are trying to navigate between the Scylla


Daily iron ore price update (Xi’s drivel)

The ferrous complex rebounded on June 23, 2022: CISA data for Mid-June came off but is still ridiculously high: The news that firmed the market was this: Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to meet economic targets for the year even as the government’s zero tolerance approach to combating Covid outbreaks and a weak housing market


Daily iron ore price update (cartel)

The ferrous complex was hammered on June 16, 2022: In news, this is big: China is moving to consolidate the country’s iron ore imports through a new centrally controlled group by the end of this year, as Xi Jinping’s administration seeks to increase Beijing’s pricing power over the industry. The initiative, led by the China


Australia’s trade surplus rises $760m in April

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released international trade data for April, which recorded a $757 million increase in Australia’s trade surplus to $10,495 billion: According to the ABS: The seasonally adjusted balance on goods and services surplus increased $757m to $10,495m in April. Goods and services credits (exports) rose $479m (1.0%) to $50,378m,


Commodity price index floats back to earth

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) index of commodity prices fell 2.0% in May in SDR (currency-weighted) terms from the prior month’s record high: However, over the May quarter commodity prices surged 8.2% over the quarter and 30.4% year-on-year in SDR terms. The RBA’s commodity price index in SDR terms has historically closely tracked the


When Origin can’t get coal, we must reserve it

Here’s the hilarity of the east coast energy crisis laid bare: Origin Energy has slashed its energy markets earnings forecast for 2022 by a quarter and withdrawn earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year amid huge volatility in electricity markets and coal supply problems at its Eraring plant in NSW. The power operator said energy