Christmas Weekend Mega Links Dec 24-28, 2016

Machine 10, Bridget Mclean, 1973, Art Gallery of NSW

China

• Xi open to growth below 6.5pc on debt risks – SCMP
• President Xi Open to Growth in China Falling Below 6.5% – Bloomberg
• Forex reserve safety concerns mean China ‘unlikely to massively sell US debt’ – SCMP
• China’s bond market plunge fans fears over blurred risks and regulatory gaps – SCMP
• China’s Bond Rout Triggers Turmoil as Leverage Curbs Bite – Bloomberg
• China Says Will Make “Tactical Adjustments” On US Debt – Zero Hedge
• China’s Xi calls for wide-ranging measures to regulate hot property market – Business Times
• Are China’s Schools Failing? – Bloomberg
• China confirms second human bird flu infection this week – CNBC
• U-turn from policy makers on home prices could bring whiplash – SCMP
• China bonds the latest bubble to pop – Nikkei Asian Review
• China’s 2% Inflation Doesn’t Tell Whole Story as Yuan Slumps – Bloomberg

Asia

• No end in sight to Japan government spending – Nikkei Asian Review
• How India and Indonesia are chasing tax revenue – Nikkei Asian Review
• Taiwan keeps key rate steady on expectation of mild recovery – Nikkei Asian Review
• India’s small businesses facing ‘apocalypse’ amid biggest financial experiment in history – Guardian
• South Korea central bank says 2017 growth may cool, suggests more fiscal stimulus needed – Business Times
• Malaysia extends bauxite mining ban by three months – Business Times
• Philippines Holds Rate as Emerging Nations Brace for Fed Risk – Bloomberg
• Philippine president says he will stop all online gambling – Business Times
• Japan’s Students Forced to Live Under a Burden of Debt – Bloomberg
• Philippine president Duterte says he will stop all online gambling – CNBC
• Slower tax revenue growth in aging Japan puts Abenomics at crossroads – Japan Times
• India Asks Power Grid to Consider Selling Stakes in Projects – Bloomberg
• More Asian defaults loom in 2017 amid record Korea shipyard debt – Business Times
• Thailand Holds Rate as Fed Hike Pressures Asian Currencies – Bloomberg
• “We Are Nothing but Machines to Them” – Slate…Bangladesh working conditions are pretty ugly…

Europe

• Greece’s Debt Problem Has Reached a Dangerous Point – Value Walk
• State rescue of Italian bank Monte dei Paschi is a cathartic release – Telegraph, AEP
• The spectre of nationalisation haunts Monte dei Paschi – Notayesmanseconomic’s…worth a read…
• A decade on, Romania and Bulgaria assess their roles in Europe – BNE Intellinews
• Italy to bail out Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank with €20bn rescue fund – Guardian
• Italy’s political class should be very alarmed if MPS needs state bailout – Guardian
• Spain seeks to lure London financial firms post-Brexit – Business Times
• Hungarian government aims to boost growth above 4% with populist measures – BNE Intellinews
• Spanish Banks Ordered to Repay Customers Over Unfair Mortgages – NY Times
• Free Cash in Finland. Must Be Jobless. – NY Times
• Investors snub Italian bank Monte Paschi’s share offer – sources – Reuters
• Is Russian activist Navalny falling into Putin’s trap? – BNE Intellinews
• How PrivatBank billions vanished through Alpine “transit banks” – BNE Intellinews
• Greece’s Perpetual Crisis – Project-Syndicate
• Russia alleges Deutsche employee manipulated markets with $5 billion of trades – Reuters
• Has the Embargo Damaged Farmers in Europe? – Economonitor
• European Banks Risk Becoming Irrelevant – Bloomberg
• Ukraine Nationalizes an Oligarch’s Losses – Bloomberg…Oligarchocracy feasting on a nation…
• ISTANBUL: Central bank keeps its powder dry – BNE Intellinews
• Spirit of TLAC broken as regulators mark their ground – Euromoney
• Spanish economic growth in the long run: What historical national accounts show – VoxEU
• Putin says Russian economy is on the mend – AP
• Bank of Ireland takes capital hit as it hikes risk profile – Irish Times

United Kingdom

• MPs to review Bank of England’s low interest rates since crash – Guardian
• Treasury is right to question Bank of England’s monetary policy – Guardian
• UK spread betters consider move overseas amid crackdown – CNBC
• How can London’s prime property market pull itself out of its tailspin? – CNBC
• Theresa May’s Brexit Problem – Project-Syndicate
• The Coming Brexit Tragedy – Project-Syndicate
• British consumer confidence rises in December – Market Watch
• Britain could be about to crack down on trillions of dollars hidden offshore – Quartz…and when does Australia follow suit?…
• The UK’s high exchange rate has a lot to answer for – Prospect
• Taxes will rise to fund care for Britain’s elderly – Economist
• The impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland: A first look – Bruegel

United States

• Trump Says the U.S. Should Expand Its Nuclear Capacity – NY Times…we’ll meet again, don’t know when, don’t know where, but I know we’ll meet again some sunny day…
• THE CHOSEN: Who Trump Is Putting in Power – ProPublica…well worth a look – the complete American oligarch cabinet…
• Fed’s rate hike signals a déjà vu for 2017 – Guardian
• Donald Trump Is Surrounding Himself With Budget-Shredding Tea Partiers – Slate
• Financial Vetting Goes Slowly for Trump’s Wealthy Cabinet Picks – NY Times…the US is starting to look like Ukraine…
• The United States might be the next Argentina – Washington Post
• Trump May Have a $300 Million Conflict of Interest With Deutsche Bank – Bloomberg
• US core capital goods orders jump in November – CNBC
• U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to More Than 2-Year High After Fed Hike – Bloomberg
• Disposable Income Per Capita Grows At Weakest Rate Since 2014 – Zero Hedge
• Obama seen saving U.S. economy but losing country in process as Trump exploits disconnect – Japan Times
• Coming Soon: Trump vs. Yellen – Bloomberg
• Brexit economy: inflation surge shows impact of vote finally beginning to bite – Guardian
• Home ownership among 25-year-olds in England and Wales has halved in 20 years – Guardian
• Is The Auto Industry Slowdown Signaling Trouble Ahead For The Overall Economy – Zero Hedge
• U.S. existing home sales rise to near 10-year high – Reuters
• Banks loosen lending standards for fourth straight year: U.S. regulator – Reuters
• Bad News for America’s Workers – Project-Syndicate, Stiglitz…nailing it…
• The U.S. Is Now a Country That Can Be Ignored – Bloomberg
• A plan to tax US imports has better odds of becoming law than many people think – CNBC
• Nearly 200 for-profit colleges get over 90% of their funding from the government – Market Watch…private sector parasitism…
• Every US president promises to boost economic growth. The catch: no one knows how. – Vox
• An obscure federal requirement threatens to spoil Trump’s plans as America’s developer-in-chief – Quartz
• Donald Trump’s trade team has based their analysis on a remarkably silly mistake – Vox
• Interest rate spike says slowdown not downturn — for now – XE.com
• Housing’s big question — what will happen when buyers think 4% rates are ‘crazy’ – Market Watch
• Delaware: the home of business – World Finance

Americas

• Canada’s GDP surprises economists by shrinking, ending four straight months of growth – Financial Post
• Secrecy And Confusion Surround Venezuela’s Latest Oil Deals – OilPrice.com
• Surprise Colombia Rate Cut Could Trigger Underperformance – Mind on the Markets
• Vancouver real estate prices face double-digit drop in 2017: LePage – Vancouver Sun
• CMHC ends 30-year monopoly of the custody of mortgage records in Canada – Vancouver Sun
• Secret Unit Helped Brazilian Company Bribe Government Officials – Guardian
• Brazil begins micro reforms in attempt to end recession – Euromoney
• More Lessons from Brazil’s Boom-Bust: The “Populist Paradigm” Revisited – Peterson Institute
• Worst new housing supply drought in Toronto in 16 years drives prices to new records – Financial Post

Terra Specufestorus

• First home buyers ‘locked out’ of Sydney real estate, struggle in Melbourne – ABC
• Senator Rod Culleton declared bankrupt by Federal Court – Fairfax
• New Zealand’s economy races ahead on people boom – Nikkei Asian Review
• Adani coalmine ‘covertly funded’ by World Bank, says report – Guardian
• Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are rising and forecast to miss 2030 target – Guardian
• We’re teetering on the brink of recession but the government is ignoring reality – Fairfax, Hewson
• New Zealand’s economy surges on consumer, building boom – CNBC
• Australia’s Fortescue beats competitors to secure exploration leases: documents – Reuters
• Investigation launched into Chinese steel being dumped in NZ – NZ Herald
• New Zealand milk output peak lowest in four years – Agrimoney
• A lying government pushing economy towards recession and greater inequality – Bill Mitchell
• Australia divided – The Monthly, Megalogenis
• Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, 2016 – Pearls and Irritations, Michael Keating
• Malcolm Turnbull’s end of year report card – Pearls and Irritations, MacCallum

Commodities

• U.S. Shale Is Now Cash Flow Neutral – OilPrice.com
• “EVs, Solar Could Push Oil Down To $10 By 2025’’ – OilPrice.com
• For metals markets it’s still all about China – Reuters, Home
• Oil and metals outlook emboldens commodity bulls – FT.com
• Libya’s Sharara oilfield resumes production after pipeline blockade lifted – Reuters
• Here’s how dramatically investors have been fleeing gold – Market Watch
• Has dry bulk bottomed out? – Business Times
• WTO rules largely in favor of Taiwan in steel row with Canada – Reuters
• Brent curve signals oil tanks will start emptying in second half of 2017 – Reuters, Kemp
• No respite for shuttered iron ore miners as rally falls short – Reuters
• Argentina soybeans vulnerable amid so-so rain forecast – Reuters
• The Shale Oil Threat Will Not Go Away – OilPrice.com
• The Bearish Case For Oil In 2017 – OilPrice.com
• Will The Climate Crisis Spread Financial Chaos In Oil and Gas? – OilPrice.com
• The Oil Mystery Behind Saudi Arabia’s Production Cut – OilPrice.com
• Huge Decline In U.S. Proved Oil And Gas Reserves – OilPrice.com
• Has tight oil put ‘peak oil’ to rest? Not so fast: Fuel for Thought – Platts
• Surging LNG supply upsetting market balance – Nikkei Asian Review
• Glencore’s All About Oil Right Now, From Crude to Extra Virgin – Bloomberg
• Why Crude Oil Prices May See A Swing Low In Early 2017 – See It Market

Capital Markets

• Bond markets: After 30-year bull run, global bonds routed on Trump worries – ABC
• The decline in global forex trading – SCMP
• Investors withdraw $3.7bn from emerging market equity funds – FT.com
• FOREIGN EXCHANGE OUTLOOK FOR FIRST QUARTER 2017 (pdf) – Brown Brothers Harriman…worth a look…
• You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates? – Mind on the Markets
• Japan research trip: how will the Bank of Japan exit YCC? – Bond Vigilantes
• The New Cold Currency War – Pimco
• 2017 LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS – JP Morgan….some useful podcasts there too…
• Smart Beta In Fixed Income ETFs Slowly Takes Root – ETF.com
• Bond market shoots first, asks questions later – Euromoney
• UBS: It’s time to short the US dollar – CNBC…maybe, but not against the AUD…
• Early Clinton Years Show Dollar-Yen Future, Top Analyst Says – Bloomberg…worth thinking about…
• Bonds Will Continue To Crash — And That’s A Good Thing – ETF Daily News
• Bitcoin circulation hits record high of $14bn – Guardian
• 6 Charts That Make The Case We Are In Long-Term Secular Bear – Value Walk, Mauldin
• What History Tells Us About Low VIX Readings & Stock Market Risk – See It Market

Global Macro

• Global Trade To Improve Despite Trump’s Protectionist Rhetoric: Goldman Sachs – Value Walk
• Inflation, Interest Rates And ‘The Politics Of Rage’ – Value Walk
• ‘Sino-US trade frictions loom’ with Trump’s new pick for policy adviser – SCMP
• Chanos: Is a big change underway in global capitalism? – INET
• Central banks have cut interest rates 690 times since Lehman Brothers: Is there a way out? – CNBC
• The International Barriers to Trump’s Economic Plan – Project-Syndicate, El-Erian
• Inflation Sensation: The New Big Deal – Bloomberg
• The Fed Puts China in a Bind – Bloomberg
• Nine economic lessons from 2016 – Prospect, Magnus…good read…
• Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries – Economonitor
• Seeing Past US Hegemony: A Liberal Global Trading System Without the United States – Economonitor
• The 2015 Globie: “Global Inequality” – Economonitor
• Stopping globalisation won’t halt the rise of inequality – Prospect
• The Year That Ended an Epoch – Project-Syndicate, Solana
• The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation. – NY Times
• The Perils of Shifting China’s “Market Economy” Dispute to the WTO – Peterson Institute
• ‘Brutal, amoral, ruthless, cheating’: how Trump’s new trade tsar sees China – NY Times
• Goldman Warns “China Remains A Key Risk”, Sees Yuan Downside Accelerating – Zero Hedge
• China tries to talk down the dollar, saying market ‘too optimistic’ about Trump – SCMP
• Is Trump serious about trade war with China? – BBC
• Deutsche Bank reaches $7.2bn settlement with US in mortgages case – Guardian
• The State Of The Global Financial Markets In 5 Charts – See It Market
• Outlook 2017: What Our Strategists Expect in the Year Ahead – Merrill Lynch
• Central banks ink deals for wider use of local currencies – Nikkei Asian Review

…and furthermore…

• When the scrutiny gets tough, the rich get more sophisticated – Nikkei Asian Review
• Welcome to Terra Sapiens – Aeon…very good read…
• How robots are making humans indispensable – FT.com, Gillian Tett
• The days of stay-at-home moms are ‘long gone,’ data show – Washington Post
• Hedge Fund Math: Heads We Win, Tails You Lose – NY Times
• Deutsche Bank to Settle Mortgage Inquiry for $7.2 Billion – NY Times
• These 3 Animated Maps Show The World’s Largest Cities Throughout History – Value Walk
• Use of artificial intelligence technology in financial services to grow: report – InvestmentNews
• A supervolcano caused the largest eruption in European history. Now it’s stirring again. – Washington Post
• Tax avoidance, expenses scams – welcome to the recruitment industry – Guardian…one of the dodgiest of all industries…
• Why Central Banks Should Offer Bank Accounts to Everyone – Evonomics, Gruen
• Why Capitalism Creates Pointless Jobs – Evonomics, Graeber….old but refreshing…
• The rise and fall of the world’s biggest cities over 4,000 years – Market Watch
• Macroeconomics and consumption: Why central bank models failed and how to repair them – VoxEU
• What’s going on under the hood: How engineers innovate in the automotive supply chain – VoxEU
• What Is the Nairu and Why Does it Matter? – Economonitor…worth a read…
• The Connection Between Work and Dignity – Bloomberg
• Blind patients in England are going to get bionic eyes in 2017 – CNBC
• Lagarde, Trump, and the IMF: Waning US Leadership Role in International Financial Institutions? – Peterson Institute
• The economic case against Christmas presents – Vox
• When it comes to bosses who don’t listen, every country is the same – Quartz
• Painkiller companies are now globally exporting addiction for profit — just like Big Tobacco – Vox
• Why The Massive Expansion Of “Money” Hasn’t Trickled Down To “The Rest of Us” – Zero Hedge
• 2 remarkable facts that illustrate solar power’s declining cost – Vox
• Cyber Experts Cite Link Between DNC Hacks and Aggression Against Ukraine – WSJ
• Manufacturing Matters Even If It Doesn’t Create Many Jobs – Bloomberg
• Go Ahead, Exchange Gifts. Forget the Economic Logic. – Bloomberg
• The Case for Protecting Infant Industries – Bloomberg
• Why I Still Don’t Buy the Russian Hacking Story – Bloomberg, Bershidsky
• If You’re So Smart, Why Aren’t You Rich? – Bloomberg
• This man is on a mission to fix the way we sleep – Washington Post

Video

Econ Duel: Fiat Money vs. the Gold Standard – Marginal Revolution

Audio

Prof. Steve Keen: Macro Outlook Under Donald Trump, Inflation, TSY Yields, and More (podcast) – Macro Voices

The most recent MB podcast