Weekend Links 12-13 November 2016

The Night of the Pigs, William Dobell, 1970, Art Gallery of NSW

China

• Singles’ Day: Chinese to splurge $20bn in world’s biggest shopping event – Guardian
• The white-knuckle countdown to China’s party congress – Nikkei Asian Review
• China moving away from market economy – Nikkei Asian Review
• Many Chinese cities are slowly sinking – and intensive urbanisation means it will only get worse, say experts – SCMP
• Tightening measures take effect as China’s home price gains cool in October – SCMP
• Chinese regulator bans futures brokers from providing margin financing – SCMP
• Hong Kong’s property stamp duty leaves a gaping loophole – SCMP
• China weighs the pros and cons of a President Trump – CBS
• China meets 2016 target for steel capacity cuts: state planner – Reuters
• China’s Pain Points – Bloomberg
• China Ramps Up Pressure on Developers in New Move to Cool Home Prices – Caixin
• Closer Look: China Faces Uncertainty as Trump Era Dawns – Caixin
• Analysis: Tax rebate signals China’s growing confidence in secure oil supplies – Platts

 Asia

• Will Asia disappear from the US radar under Trump? – SCMP
• Flash Indian demonetization triggers cash chaos – Nikkei Asian Review
• Saudi Arabia owes billions to private firms after collapse in oil revenues – Guardian
• Crowds Line Up at India’s Banks to Exchange Banned Rupee Notes – NY Times
• Changes in wage inequality and structure of wage determination in Japan – VoxEU
• Japan Shuts Down Its Monetary Lab – Bloomberg, Smith
• Trump’s Rise Deals Another Blow to India’s Manufacturing Dream – Bloomberg

Europe

• The politics of rage will spread to Italy as ‘Trump risk’ gives way to ‘Renzi risk’ – SCMP…lots of Euro elections coming up…
• Russia Prepares to Block LinkedIn After Court Ruling – NY Times
• Ukraine anxious but keeps its cool about Trump victory – BNE
• What does Trump’s victory mean for Ukraine? – BNE
• Public support for the euro – VoxEU
• Diverging household debt patterns in the Eurozone: The role of institutions – VoxEU
• Trump’s Election Triggers Deep Concern in Europe – Der Spiegel
• Italy’s Next in the Crosshairs for Anti-Establishment Wave – Bloomberg
• The Russian propaganda against Renzi: and Grillo’s web backs it up – La Stampa
• Italy’s Bonds Tumble as Trump Win Boosts Referendum Concern – Bloomberg
• ‘Overcorrection’ in house prices since financial crash – Irish Times
• ‘Flood of companies’ to leave Ireland due to US tax cuts – Irish Independent
• Irish household debt levels static as the pace of reduction slows down – Irish Independent

United Kingdom

• Brexit leaves London-based banks facing ‘nightmarish’ choices – Guardian
• UK moves to block ‘dirty money’ flowing into City of London – Guardian
• Why we should axe the triple lock: We must not discriminate against those below pensionable age – Prospect

 United States

• President Trump: How America Got It So Wrong – Rolling Stone, Matt Taibbi
• How the Rustbelt Paved Trump’s Road to Victory – Atlantic
• Revenge of the Forgotten Class – ProPublica…good read…
• US voters chose candidate with a more radical approach to economy – Guardian
• Donald Trump’s conflicts of interest: without precedent in American presidents – Fairfax
• Cuomo Strikes Deal to Revive Affordable Housing Program – NY Times
• Can Trump ‘make America great again’? – Nikkei Asian Review
• Trump considers JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary – Telegraph…and asset prices to the moon?…
• US election: What does a Donald Trump win mean for the Federal Reserve? – ABC
• D.C. hotels were expecting an inaugural booking frenzy. Instead they’ve got vacancies. –Washington Post
• With a real estate developer in the White House, is a building boom on the way? – Washington Post
• A Trump policy adviser is already walking back tough talk on trade – Washington Post
• Fed on track to raise US rates next months as officials shrug off Trump’s election win – SCMP
• U.S. multinationals eye foreign profits tax break with Trump win – Reuters
• U.S. consumer financial agency could be defanged under Trump – Reuters
• What will Trump do about Obamacare? – CBS
• Income inequality boosted Trump vote – Bruegel
• Trump won’t have much impact on 2% growth in 2017, Goldman economists say – Market Watch
• Trump Shows Every Sign of Carrying Out Sweeping Immigration Crackdown – Bloomberg
• How Trump Could Help the Fed – Bloomberg, Kocherlakota
• Where Manufacturing Isn’t Dead – Bloomberg
• US farmland prices to suffer 20% slump, MetLife warns – Agrimoney
• A President Trump Fiscal Stimulus Is Coming – Bloomberg, Fox
• Blame the Fed for Trump’s Victory – Bloomberg
• Here’s why Trump’s policies could cut the tax bills of US citizens abroad – CNBC
• L.A. developers grapple with affordable-housing measure passed by a wide margin – LA Times
• What would a recreational marijuana market in California look like? – LA Times
• What will a Trump presidency mean for the US economy? – Prospect
• What Lies Ahead for the Supreme Court in a Trump Administration? – Atlantic
• Two long leading indicators continue to rate caution – XE.com
• Hillary Is Down, But Not The Oligarchs (Yet) – Zero Hedge
• America’s Foreclosure Crisis Is Far From Over. So Why Don’t We Hear About It? – Slate
• Help Us, Janet Yellen – Slate
• How Letting Bankers Off the Hook May Have Tipped the Election – NY Times…plenty in this…

Americas

• Vancouver slaps $10,000 a year tax on empty homes. Lie about it and it’s $10,000 a day – Financial Post
• Despite Trump vitriol against NAFTA, Canada aims to sell him on benefits of cross-border trade: Morneau – Financial Post
• How Trump’s tax plans could benefit high net worth dual citizens and Canadians living in U.S. – Financial Post
• Canada open to renegotiating free trade with Donald Trump – CBS
• From avocados to autos, Mexican businesses fear tough times with Trump – Reuters
• Vancouver proposes one-per-cent tax on empty homes, council debate next week – Vancouver Sun
• VENEZUELA, A FAILING STATE – New Yorker

Terra Incognita

• Is Donald Trump going to burst Australia’s housing bubble? – Fairfax
• IVF producing new generation of infertile Australian children says professor John Aitken – Fairfax
• Former prime minister Paul Keating calls for a ‘Reserve Bank of infrastructure’ – Fairfax
• Aldi’s arch rival Schwarz Group eyes Australian expansion with Kaufland chain – Fairfax
• End the politics over productivity. New ideas are needed now – Guardian
• Australia and Asia Pacific had high hopes for the TPP. It’s not necessarily over – Guardian…what is in it for Australia again?…
• Small business: New laws to level playing field between big and small – ABC
• Virtual reality booming, but Australia risks missing out, experts warn – ABC
• Malcolm Turnbull says Australians are less disillusioned than American voters – Guardian…does Malcolm get out enough?…
• Sucking up to Trump: How to handle the new US president? – The Monthly…from the PM down it has been cringeworthy…
• Appco: The bullying and hazing inside Australia’s most humiliating workplace – NZ Herald
• ASIC inquiry launched into CIMIC and Leighton bribery scandal – Fairfax…company which has smelled for some time…
• Trump’s Victory and Australian Politics – Pearls & Irritations…not a bad read…
• Australia should assume Trump won’t step back from his campaign commitments – The Conversation, Hewson
• Time to toss one of banking’s four pillars out of the nest? – The Conversation…a question well worth asking…
• CBD wallet farmers sued by spurned veggie farmer – Michael West…good read…

Commodities

• Are skyrocketing garlic prices leaving the strong smell of rising inflation and economic stagnation in the air? – SCMP
• Commodities’ outlook depends on if Trump reality matches rhetoric – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• IEA sees global market awash with oil in 2017 if no OPEC cut – Reuters
• Copper eyes biggest weekly rally in 35 years as demand view shifts – Reuters
• U.S. natural gas storage hits all-time high as production declines – Reuters
• Growing LNG supply glut redefining global flows, long-term contracts: PIRA – Reuters
• President-elect Trump sends gold bugs into seventh heaven – Mineweb
• A deal with the devil: Uranium price collapse result in lowest price since 2005. – Mineweb
• Iron ore’s near-doubling shows reversal from loser to leader – Mineweb
• Trump may not be able to save U.S. coal miners – Reuters, Kemp
• China coal fumble casts doubt on its global commodities pricing goal – Business Times
• Opec v Donald Trump: who is over a barrel? – FT.com…would smashing OPEC deliver some favours?…
• US mars promising picture for 2017 grain harvests – UN – Agrimoney
• Chinese Steel’s Biggest Problem Isn’t Trump – Bloomberg
• China rebar mills cut production on coal shortage, costs – Platts
• China’s total thermal coal imports and volumes from Australia rise 33% on year in Q3 – Platts

 Capital Markets

• Global banks watching for Trump to roll back financial regulations – Nikkei Asian Review
• ‘A monster in the White House’: Why Donald Trump is a wild card for wary Wall Street – Financial Post
• Asia’s emerging currencies plunge amid fears of Trump trade barriers – Guardian
• Yuan plunges after PBOC sets fixing below 6.8 for first time since 2010 – SCMP
• Hong Kong central bank flags blockchain money-laundering risk – Business Times
• Trump stock-market rally reflects expectations for new era of fiscal stimulus – Market Watch
• Singapore Bondholders Get Tough – Bloomberg
• Crispin Odey On His Top Shorts, Longs And Unlisted Companies – ValueWalk
• Is Technical Analysis Effective Post-Election? – ValueWalk…what is fundamental analysis post 2008?…
• Trump good for US equities, bad for bonds – Euromoney
• Price pressures force change in oil and gas treasury strategy – Euromoney
• Rupiah Plunge Prompts Intervention to Stabilize Currency, Bonds – Bloomberg…a lot of EM currency instability at the moment…
• Markets Expecting Higher Inflation and Interest Rates – Otterwood Capital

Global Macro

• In China-U.S. Trade War, Trump Would Have Weapons – NY Times
• Why China might welcome trade war with the US – Fairfax
• Trump Rides a Wave of Fury That May Damage Global Prosperity – NY Times
• How America’s new president will affect the global economy – Guardian
• Open economies likely to suffer from protectionist stance – Business Times
• Are advanced economies at risk of falling into debt traps? – Bruegel…are bears at risk of shitting in the woods?…
• Trump’s Vow to Crack Down on China Set to Run Into Complex Reality – Bloomberg
• Prepare for a reversal of monetary rule under President Trump – FT.com, Gillian Tett…always a thought provoking read…
• Crispin Odey: (Still) Waiting For The Crash – ValueWalk
• The economic consequences of Mr Trump – FT.com, Martin Wolf
• I’m not worried about a US recession, I’m worried about another Great Depression – CNBC
• TPP appears dead with Trump heading to White House – Japan Times
• Fixing the Great Distortion: How to Undo the Tax Bias Toward Debt Finance – IMF Direct
• The Dappled World – Speech by Andy Haldane (BoE)…very good read…
• Protracted oil slump exposes Saudi Arabia’s economic vulnerability – FT.com
• Beijing plans rival Asia-Pacific trade deal after Trump victory – FT.com
• Britain could join USA, Canada and Mexico in new free trade area after Brexit – Telegraph…worth noting that some of the wackier conservative elements sometimes float an idea of Confederation of English speaking peoples…

…and furthermore…

• Marijuana reform went 8 for 9 on the ballot this week. It could be the tipping point. – Washington Post
• US election 2016: It’s not about racism or sexism, it’s about class warfare – Fairfax
• To cultivate the industries of the future we need to invest in this intangible human quality
• Robots endanger up to two-thirds of emerging economy jobs – SCMP
• How universities boost economic growth – VoxEU…boosting foreign demand for real estate?…
• Electoral accountability and the natural resource curse – VoxEU
• Econ 101 Might Be Wrong About Supply and Demand – Bloomberg
• Why You Should Blame The Economics Discipline For Today’s Problems – Evonomics
• Before Capitalism, Medieval Peasants Got More Vacation Time Than You. Here’s Why. – Evonomics
• Mainstream Economics Has Become a Celebration of the Wealthy Rentier Class – Evonomics
• The Unbearable Smugness Of The American Media – Zero Hedge…2016 has been an abysmal year for the global media…
• Why Some Flus Are Deadliest in Young Adults – Atlantic
• It was the Democrats’ embrace of neoliberalism that won it for Trump – Guardian, Naomi Klein…it is the mainstream left around the world which has failed in the neo-liberal era…
• Autocracy: Rules for Survival – NY Review of Books
• Trump victory comes with a silver lining for the world’s progressives – The Conversation, Varoufakis
• Trickle down Trump-economics is not the fiscal policy the world needs – The Conversation…but it is what the world is getting…

Donald Trump (a bit more) and sundry other implications

• Thoughts for the Horrified – NY Times, Krugman
• A Majority of “Deplorables”? – Project-Syndicate
• Protecting Europe in the Age of Trump – Project-Syndicate
• Who Is President Trump? – Project-Syndicate, Frankel
• Business Leaders Examine a Post-Election World – NY Times
• Donald Trump Could Put Climate Change on Course for ‘Danger Zone’ – NY Times
• Trump considering Hensarling as Treasury secretary – Market Watch
• Donald Trump and your wallet: Many unknowns – CBS
• Meet the new boss: Businesses may come to love or to fear Donald Trump. Either way, they will have to make a deal – Economist
• Deciphering Trumponomics, Chapter One – Bloomberg
• 5 Foreign-Policy Flashpoints That Await Donald Trump – Atlantic
• Trump Reveals Policy Goals: “Building That Wall”, End “War On Coal”, Repeal Obamacare, Dismantle Dodd-Frank – Zero Hedge
• Economic Dream Team Machine – Reuters...you can have some fun here creating your own Trump advisor team…

Vale Leonard Cohen 1934-2016