Weekend Links September 17-18, 2016

Barbara and Auguste, 1957, Charles Blackman, National Gallery of Victoria

China

• 8 Charts on China’s stimulus driven rebound – ValueWalk…well worth a look…
• China’s new loans beat expectations in August but home mortgages still main driver– SCMP
• Chinese local government finances improve but provincial imbalances still pose significant risk, says Moody’s– SCMP
• China’s High Seas Ambitions– Der Spiegel
• China’s Housing Gets Scarily Expensive– Bloomberg
• Has China’s steel output peaked? – Mineweb
• How China’s Past Stimulus Is Dogging Its Growth Prospects – WSJ
• Chinese local government finances improve but provincial imbalances still pose significant risk, says Moody’s – SCMP
• China’s Yuan Faces a Rocky Road to Becoming a Truly Global Currency – Bloomberg
• China Investment Remains Stuck at 16-Year Low – Caixin

Asia

• Rattled Indian textile sector begs for help – Nikkei Asian Review
• Duterte putting Philippines first in dealings with US, China – Nikkei Asian Review
• Bank moves to set lending rates at zero limit BOJ’s room for maneuver – Nikkei Asian Review
• Dancing lions herald arrival of more Chinese oil traders in Singapore – Reuters
• A Better Economic Plan for Japan – Project-Syndicate, Stiglitz
• Indonesia to look into Ford’s sales after report on tax avoidance – Reuters
• Indonesia to investigate Google for possible unpaid taxes – Reuters
• Action by the Bank of Japan could have dramatic results for stocks – Market Watch
• Japan’s Biggest Bank Urges BOJ to Weigh Policy Side Effects– Bloomberg
• China Rebalancing Is Opportunity for Indonesian Low-Wage Economy– Bloomberg
• Asia’s $1 Trillion Spoiler– Bloomberg…there is a lot of corporate debt out there…
• Japan regulator sounds warning for banks in report– Nikkei Asian Review
• Rich Indonesians Snap Up Singapore Homes as Taxman Beckons – Bloomberg
• Japan Looks to Bring in More Foreign Workers as Population Falls – Bloomberg
• India opens up to FDI – World Finance

Europe

• Draghi: EU must redistribute wealth and strengthen borders to save the union – Telegraph
• Rise of the underdogs? Low-cost car brands most popular in Europe – CNBC
• Europe’s Biggest Natural Gas Producer Is Running Out of Fuel – Bloomberg
• Oktoberfest Is Giving Some Economists a Headache Even Before It’s Started – Bloomberg
• Ukraine president seeks to avoid “chaos and anarchy” as his ratings fall – BNE Intellinews
• Will the Kremlin fix the Duma elections and can it get away with it if it does? – BNE Intellinews, Aris….almost certainly, and without a shadow of a doubt, being the answers…
• Greece Raids Home Of Central Bank Head – Zero Hedge

United Kingdom

• Independent or not, Scotland’s financial future looks shaky – Guardian
• UK domestic policies dented middle incomes, not globalisation, says thinktank – Guardian
• UK interest rates are heading in only one direction– Guardian
• Britain’s Departure Likely to Cost EU Billions– Der Spiegel
• Bank of England says Brexit fallout is not as bad as feared – but it might cut rates again anyway– Telegraph
• EU officials ‘believe Britain will give up on Brexit if they make negotiations tough enough’ – Telegraph
• The City will decline—and we will be the poorer for it – Bruegel
• Brexit & Beyond: May’s Plan Faces Protectionist Forces, a Turning Tide on Yields – WSJ
• Bank of England sticks with rate cut signal despite Brexit bounce – Reuters
• $20 Billion Untapped in 15 Years Clouds Ukraine-IMF Outlook – Bloomberg

United States

• A Rebounding Economy Remains Fragile for Many – NY Times
• Religion in US ‘worth more than Google and Apple combined’ – Guardian
• Why the US economy is crucial to the election – in six charts – Guardian
• If strong growth is America’s new normal, can we dump all the ugly class warfare already? – Financial Post
• Americans blame Washington gridlock for slow economic growth: study – Reuters
• U.S. Poverty and Income Inequality in 9 Charts – WSJ
• Donald Trump Vows to Create 25 Million Jobs Over Next Decade– NY Times
• Medical Expenses Still Drive an Outrageous Number of Americans Into Poverty – Slate
• U.S. Household Income Grew 5.2 Percent in 2015, Breaking Pattern of Stagnation– NY Times
• U.S. tax avoidance clampdown a potential headache for Apple– Reuters
• The Fed Is Planning for Another Slow Recovery– Bloomberg
• When The Music Stops: Why The US Consumer Will Cause The Next Crisis– Value Walk
• Will the Fed Take a (Rate) Hike?– Value Walk
• The Recovery Finally Reached Most Americans In 2015 – FiveThirtyEight
• America’s Inequality Problem: Real Income Gains Are Brief and Hard to Find– NY Times
• Sensitive data again leaked out of the Fed early– MarketWatch
• Food-Price Shocks Outweigh Oil Surges – WSJ
• Obama’s Trickle-Up Economics – NY Times, Krugman
• 7 of 10 Americans plan to work in retirement – Washington Post
• A tax loophole for U.S. companies operating overseas just got tighter – Washington Post
• Want to Fix the U.S. Economy? Start With the Broken Political System – WSJ
• US industrial production fell 0.4% in Aug vs. 0.3% drop expected – CNBC
• Americans are eager for tax reform: Survey – CNBC
• US competitiveness is at its worst in generations, Harvard’s Michael Porter says – CNBC
• Report: Government inaction is hampering economic growth – CBS
• The US economy. Strange recovery indeed – Flassbeck Economics
• Why drug prices in America are so high – Economist
• Why Does the United States Give So Much Money to Israel? – The Atlantic
• Multinational Corporations: Friends or Foes of the American Worker? – Peterson Institute
• TRUMP AND THE TRUTH: THE INTEREST-RATE FLIP-FLOP – New Yorker
• CoreLogic: “548,000 US Homeowners Regained Equity in the Second Quarter of 2016” – Calculated Risk
• Sufficient Time Accumulated For Judgment About The Industrial Economy – Seeking Alpha

Americas

• Why Canada is becoming a global ‘safe haven’ for capital – Financial Post
• Bank of Canada deputy warns investors to adapt because slow growth is ‘new reality’ – Financial Post
• Vancouver tax on empty homes takes aim at near-zero rental supply – SCMP
• How Venezuela Could Come Back from the Brink of Collapse– Value Walk
• Canada’s household debt is now bigger than its GDP, for the first time– Financial Post
• Canadian home sales drop 3% as Vancouver market ‘brakes more abruptly than anticipated’– Financial Post
• Review flags concerns about money laundering by organized crime in Canada’s real estate sector– Financial Post

Terra Incognita

• Suspected Chinese-Australian money launderer gambled ‘astronomical’ $850m at Crown Casino – Fairfax…sits nicely alongside the $24 billion Chinese Australian gamblers wagered on Australian houses last year – and nobody asks a single question about corruption proceeds?…..
• The Conroy conundrum: enforcer’s departure leaves Bill Shorten exposed – Guardian…2 months after an election is also exposes contempt for the electorate – if he slots into a corporate gig there should be an inquiry….
• Labor says Coalition gave ‘special treatment’ to banks when setting hearing dates – Guardian
• Foreign investors behind ‘significant developments’ to be exempt from new Queensland tax – ABC
• Farmers fear for competition and research over Bayer and Monsanto mega-deal – Fairfax
• Superannuation changes show Federal Government has ‘caved in to the super rich’ – ABC, Long…utterly spineless gouge of taxpaying Australians…
• Australia didn’t have a ‘great recession’? Tell that to young people – Guardian, Jericho
• New Zealand’s economy grows strongly in 2Q – Nikkei Asian Review
• Superannuation: Latest changes favour the rich, but that’s not the big picture – ABC
• $76,919 max: how teacher pay peaks and how the government wants to fix it – Fairfax
• Scott Morrison’s super cap change a cave-in to the wealthy – Fairfax
• All change at Reserve Bank, but Australia’s economy is still heading for the rocks– Guardian, Lindsay David
• Australia’s unemployment rate reaches lowest level in three years– Guardian
• Even with further rate cuts, new home buyers will have historically high debt– Guardian, Jericho
• 10 things you didn’t know about incoming RBA power team Philip Lowe and Guy Debelle– Fairfax
• Scott Morrison’s super cap change a cave-in to the wealthy– Fairfax
• New Zealand Economy Grows Fastest in 2 Years Amid Building Boom– Bloomberg
• Australia’s natural gas bans risk replicating Springsteen’s rust belt– Reuters, Clyde Russell
• Where to for welfare?(pdf) – APO, Peter Whiteford & Daniel Nethery…epic piece of analysis every Australian family should be looking at…
• Australian labour market – part-time trend intensifies as total employment declines– Bill Mitchell
• The rise and fall of Sam Dastyari– Fairfax
• Foreign investors behind ‘significant developments’ to be exempt from new Queensland tax – ABC
• Australia’s Jobless Rate Declines as Fewer People Seek Work – Bloomberg, Heath
• The underemployment challenge – Callam Pickering
• The house price souffle is rising again – Fairfax

 Commodities

• Top food trader Dreyfus sees low agriculture prices in 2017– SCMP
• Copper hits 3-week high on China economic data– Nikkei Asian Review
• When oil turns it will be with such lightning speed that it could upend the market again– Financial Post
• French wheat exports to fall to lowest in more than a decade– Agrimoney
• U.S. wheat shippers putting lousy 2015-16 behind them– Reuters, Braun
• Vietnamese robusta exports bigger than thought…­– Agrimoney
• Cocktail of concerns dogs start to Brazil’s soy sowing season– Agrimoney
• The World’s Inventory Of This Rare Metal Has Quietly Fallen To Zero– OilPrice.com
• Data supports ‘platinum cliff’ theory – Mineweb
• As global investment in new oil projects plummets, crude’s share of the energy mix grows – Financial Post
• Malaysia palm oil output seen dropping 10% in 2016 on El Nino – Business Times
• Australia’s wheat crop threatened as La Nina climate indicator rises: analysts – Business Times
• How A Pipeline Leak in Alabama Can Move Gas Prices – WSJ

Capital markets

• Bond yields are surging despite deflation, and that is dangerous – Telegraph, AEP
• Negative interest rates highlight mismatch between advisor and client investment horizons – SCMP
• Here’s what could set off a ‘Minsky moment’ in paper assets – SCMP
• Brexit and the Pound in Your Pocket – Project-Syndicate, Eichengreen
• Prime Money Market Funds Are Bracing for More Outflows – WSJ
• The Perils of the Ultra-Long View on Bonds– Bloomberg
• Bond Markets Hit Another ‘Ukrainian Chicken Moment’– Bloomberg
• Is Cash a Safe Haven Asset?– Value Walk
• Investors Stick With Assets That Mimic Hedge Funds– NY Times
• What would a US rate rise mean for your portfolio? – Telegraph
• Six Striking Observations About Corporate Debt – Zero Hedge
• Understanding The VIX: Now And Throughout Stock Market History – See It Market

Global Macro

• Crash Course Part 1: The Problems of Overvalued Assets & High Debt – Economonitor
• Crash Course Part 2: Crisis Triggers – Economonitor
• Crash Course Part 3: The Age of Stagnation? – Economonitor
• The World Bank’s Recipe for Irrelevance – Project-Syndicate
• Sliding U.S. export share, trade disputes, set stage for China grains clash – Reuters
• Budget-related cross-border flows: EU versus US – VoxEU
• Singapore central banker Ravi Menon says monetary policy is overrated – CNBC
• How Much Do We Really Know About Global Trade’s Impacts?– NY Times
• Why Russia And China Are Intent On Salvaging Syria’s Economy– OilPrice.com
• A Rock-Star Economist’s Warning on Low Rates– Bloomberg
• TTIP talks resume between US and EU trade officials – Guardian
• Mario Draghi unraveled 2 of the world’s most popular trades – MarketWatch
• Will interest rates ever rise? – Prospect, Magnus
• Why everyone needs to pay attention to the bond market – CNBC
• Ben Bernanke: ‘Premature’ to count out negative rates – CNBC
• Charts: Eight years after Lehman’s collapse, this is what has happened to the global economy – Quartz
• Global food prices hit 15-month high – World Finance
• Here’s why the market’s ‘fear gauge’ can be a strong signal to buy – Market Watch
• Maybe a computer could replace the Fed’s Janet Yellen? – Market Watch
• Probing the Productivity Paradox – Project-Syndicate…thought provoking…
• Ultimate Sin Trade: Buy Big Cannabis With 9X Growth in Next Ten Years! Sell Big Alcohol – ValueWalk…go long Arabica futures with that…
• Wage stickiness and unemployment in regulated and unregulated labour markets: Italian evidence – VoxEU
• The efficiency of entry, monopoly, and market deregulation – VoxEU
• Study: big corporations dominate list of world’s top economic entities – Guardian…by paying less tax on their revenues than anyone else?…
• The tail that wags the economy: The origin of secular stagnation – VoxEU
• The Death of the Invisible Hand: Why the Narrow Pursuit of Self Interest Always Fails– Evonomics
• Inequality and Unearned Income Kills the Economy– Evonomics, Stiglitz
• The VIX and its derivatives– VoxEU
• What If Size Matters Less? The Case for a New Financial Regulation Gains Ground– Value Walk
• The World’s Most Important Graph Heads to the Graveyard– Bloomberg
• Mega-Ships May Be Too Big Not to Fail– Bloomberg
• The Lehman Moment Still Is With Us– Bloomberg, Ritholtz
• On this day 8 years ago, Lehman Brothers collapsed: Have we learned anything? – CNBC
• Have big banks gotten safer? – Brookings…very good paper…

…and furthermore…

• Is employment law fit for the gig economy? – Guardian…casualised contract serfdom seems to be the norm…
• Body odour and bad breath: is it harassment in the workplace? – SCMP
• internet of things – The Smart Home Of Tomorrow  – ValueWalk
• It’s the calibre of the boss that matters most– SCMP
• Three Fallacies That Make You Fear a Robot Economy– Evonomics
• Banks Gone Bad: How Our Evolved Morality Has Failed Us– Evonomics
• Banks and Colleges Are Wasting Our Money– Bloomberg, McArdle….very good read…
• How ‘Superforecasters’ Think About the Future– Bloomberg
• We Don’t Have to Give In to Sprawl– Bloomberg
• Why Taxing Fairly Means Not Taxing Inheritances– NY Times
• How to View a Richer Year for the Poor and Middle Class– NY Times
• Concern Over Colin Powell’s Hacked Emails Becomes a Fear of Being Next– NY Times
• The First Drone Strike – Slate…interesting read…
• What the ‘sixth extinction’ will look like in the oceans: The largest species die off first – Washington Post
• What If Urban Sprawl Is the Only Realistic Way to Create Affordable Cities? – WSJ
• Who Has Space for Renewables? – Project-Syndicate, Turner….normally Australia would spring to mind, but its biggest space is in its national economic policy…
• A BIG TOBACCO MOMENT FOR THE SUGAR INDUSTRY – New Yorker
• WHERE PUNK ROCK BEGINS – New Yorker
• Has economics — really — become more empirical? – RWER
• Why Americans Are So Bloody Awful at British Accents – Slate
• The Chevrolet Bolt Is a Quiet Revolution – Slate
• Arctic Ice Cover Hits Second-Lowest Minimum In Recorded History – IB Times