Weekend links 1 – 2 October 2016

Wire 1966 Noel Counihan

Wire, Noel Counihan, 1966, National Gallery of Victoria

 

China

Asia

Europe

United Kingdom

 United States

Americas

Terra Incognita

Commodities

 Capital markets

 Global Macro

 …and furthermore…

 

Comments

  1. Ah yes. Government giving $1.8 million to a restaurant chain to train workers but also giving out 457 visas to restaurants!

    Government needs to decide if they want jobs to go to foreigners or Aussies. If Aussies, slash 457 visas by 90%. If foreigners, stop spending millions of $ on training!

    • Where the fk is the msm, voter push back on this? This is appalling on ever level. I’m voting Pauline from now on, and let’s hope she can get focused a little better also.

      • There is no outrage. The lefties think that Aussies will not miss out on jobs if 457 visas are issued like junk mail. The lefties probably think that dumbing down degrees is a great idea.

        But clearly Singapore does not agree and Singapore is ranked much better than AUS on the corruption index.

        And clearly a hell of a lot of Aussies are unemployed while 457 visa workers are brought in (not because they have supreme skills but because they are willing to work for illegal salaries).

      • Jeezus, 457 visas are an out and out right wing construction, don’t know how you’re blaming them on the left.

    • Can you imagine – selling realestate out there? I mean – hell – they don’t make land anymore, now do they?

      On the other hand – could we direct the spaceship full of lawyers, politicians and real-estate agents straight into the sun?

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You forgot telephone sanitation engineers and hairdressers. Douglass would have been disappointed.

      • @ TTWilbur

        No, I didn’t, It’s just that I’m prioritising, and there’s only so much space you have for the lucky ones in the first tranche.

    • If humans go extinct – so be it.

      North Korea should have been bombed in the 1990s and Pakistan should be developed in exchange for handing over their nuclear bombs.

  2. DB down nearly 8 % then up 6%? what is that the bank/market threatening the DoJ? “We’re too big to fail, don’t fine us, and Merkel, time to bail us out cos we’ll steer Europe into a black hole?”

    lol.Not in Marx’s wildest dreams.

    • They will be taken over by the government in some form or other, chaos not allowed before the US election. The UK still owns 71% of RBS ( which means they are running it off but not saying so ), they only managed to off load most of the Lloyds shares.

      Hoist by their own petards… because gold is not monetary there are few reporting requirements in Switzerland for gold, hence a new growth industry has sprung up.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/secret-swiss-gold-vaults-are-the-new-swiss-bank-accounts

      How long before the Yanks kick up about this ?

      • Gold is a marker or better put a mental anchoring device to a set of price signals, some law and some market, yet gold does not have some Newtonian device to imbue it with value outside humans exchanging it.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. its sorta like immaculate conception….

  3. Thx for the links. That article from the Guardian in regards to Chinese passion for property is very interesting. Seems like the current RE madness can still be maintained for a very long time

    • Agreed, fantastic article. Some of the comments are great too.

      Q: “Why do we allow this?” A: “Do you have a phone?”

      i.e. We have done this to ourselves by relying too much on others’ exports. China is (quite rightfully!) reaping the benefits of being a manufacturing powerhouse.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        “There is no point in building homes if they are bought by investors in the Middle East and Asia,” the mayor said in May. “I don’t want homes being left empty. I don’t want us to be the world’s capital for money laundering. I want to give first dibs to Londoners.”…………….looks like the mayor has never heard to straya’s great strategy of “jobs and growth “………..and stuff homes for the citazens

      • Kipron….Exactly!!! The anti-Chinese sentiment abounding here and elsewhere is badly misplaced. They’ve worked and saved. We’ve consumed and distorted selling off our nation to pay our way.
        The Chinese are simply reaping the benefits of productivity and prudence. It’s a pity we don’t learn something from it instead of this wah! Wah! Wah! stuff we are indulging in.

      • flawse….

        Uttering fool is not an intellectual retort…. it drips with some sort of fundamentalist perspective like value on an individual level with out understanding some individuals actual desecrate value… orchestrate the destruction of value for personal gain…

        Disheveled Marsuapial…. if your going to make an accusation state it clearly so everyone can reconcile wft your on about…

  4. @skippy I finished watching Century of the Self this morning. A fascinating documentary. If the implication is that our most recent two decades of near constant price hyperinflation of a place to call home is due to the desires of the voting majority for this outcome, at the expense of everything else in the economy, then I am pretty much lost for words to describe the disgust I have for fellow citizens in this group. So Little Johnny had it politically right when he expressed that no one ever complained to him about the price of their house rising. So no hope for affordable homes until such “selfish” desires become the majority (lol, never). Perhaps decent tenancy protection laws / rights are a better use of energy as they’ll have a slither of a chance, majority wise, for generation rent.

    • Sigmund Freud, the founder of psychoanalysis, changed our perception of the mind and its workings. The documentary explores the various ways that governments and corporations have utilized Freud’s theories. Freud and his nephew Edward Bernays, who was the first to use psychological techniques in public relations, are discussed in part one. His daughter Anna Freud, a pioneer of child psychology, is mentioned in part two. Wilhelm Reich, an opponent of Freud’s theories, is discussed in part three.

      To many in politics and business, the triumph of the self is the ultimate expression of democracy, where power has finally moved to the people. Certainly, the people may feel they are in charge, but are they really? The Century of the Self tells the untold and sometimes controversial story of the growth of the mass-consumer society. How was the all-consuming self created, by whom, and in whose interests?
      BBC publicity.[6]

      Along these lines, The Century of the Self asks deeper questions about the roots and methods of consumerism and commodification and their implications. It also questions the modern way people see themselves, the attitudes to fashion, and superficiality.

      Andy!…. nowhere can I find even a casual link to your opinion on Adam Curtis doco, quite to the contrary Curtis attempts to inform how almost a 100 years ago burgeoning democracy threatened the elites, as such Freud and Bernays offered a solution where manipulating irrational fears – too manipulate – the unwashed for fun and profit. In this context the great depression was a huge early failure with a protracted post phase, post WWII was a glimmer of democracy again only to be repressed again whence neoclassical reasserted itself once again mid 70s.

      The dramas with inflation and RE is a direct reflection of neoclassical dominance and not voters, you can’t have the same economic advisors during a protracted period and expect voters to have any meaningful effect on the duopoly. Where the greatest contrast between Liberalism and Conservationism is how you like your authoritarianism decanted.

      Disheveled Marsupial…. one would think with the public exposure of Wells Fargo how much voters have to do with what goes on in the markets, except as consumers to be sheared.

      The business and political worlds use psychological techniques to read, create and fulfil the desires of the public, and to make their products and speeches as pleasing as possible to consumers and voters. Curtis questions the intentions and origins of this relatively new approach to engaging the public.

      Where once the political process was about engaging people’s rational, conscious minds, as well as facilitating their needs as a group, Stuart Ewen, a historian of public relations, argues that politicians now appeal to primitive impulses that have little bearing on issues outside the narrow self-interests of a consumer society.

      The words of Paul Mazur, a leading Wall Street banker working for Lehman Brothers in 1927, are cited: “We must shift America from a needs- to a desires-culture. People must be trained to desire, to want new things, even before the old have been entirely consumed. […] Man’s desires must overshadow his needs.”[7]

      In part four the main subjects are Philip Gould, a political strategist, and Matthew Freud, a PR consultant and the great-grandson of Sigmund Freud. In the 1990s, they were instrumental to bringing the Democratic Party in the US and New Labour in the United Kingdom back into power through use of the focus group, originally invented by psychoanalysts employed by US corporations to allow consumers to express their feelings and needs, just as patients do in psychotherapy.

      Curtis ends by saying that, “Although we feel we are free, in reality, we—like the politicians—have become the slaves of our own desires,” and compares Britain and America to ‘Democracity’, an exhibit at the 1939 New York World’s Fair created by Edward Bernays

      • Given the age of the documentary I interpreted the context of it to apply to Australia since the 00’s – I.e. Real estate worship.

        It is clear to me that the masses desire their house prices to increase, regardless of how short sighted / cruel this is (ie. No relative wealth gain to their peers, higher future transaction costs, higher council rates & land tax, additional debt required to use equity, wannabe new entrants cannot afford, undiversified economic risks, lazy/no effort, ponzi financed, destruction of $ purchasing power, etc). The highest duty is to oneself.

        As the documentary highlights the selfish inner desires need to be met by the ruling elites to keep power… But as the mass desire for continued price “growth” is by definition insatiable, it must continue for as long as this desire holds mass truth. This is why we get a few token “housing is expensive” comments from them but zero effective actions to truly address this – in fact the opposite (no changes to tax policy, years of rate slashing, etc).

        And since ones real estate holdings are primarily how one expresses and defines themselves in Oz, I cannot see participants “allowing” prices to fall to affordable levels as this is an attack & reflection on their personal worth (ie. Vendors passing in their auctions because they know better than the market, and/or bidders going waaaaay beyond reserve to make a new street/suburb “record”).

        There is depression and anger in knowing the above, yet it’s also somewhat liberating to know the possibility of owning my own home at any stage in my life, even though I’m in my 30’s now, is unlikely and therefore deserves little thought / energy / hope. Whatever will be will be…

      • Well done Skippy, another victim!

        The video should come with a warning of a binge watching – not to be watched close to bed time or on weekends where family activity is due.

      • Ok I don’t know if your pulling my leg or attempting to re-frame the doco into your desired framework…. BTW the doco starts with Freud and Bernays, don’t be a wanker.

        None of what you said has any attachment to reality i.e. consumers did not cause prices to go up as wages have been stagnate since the 70s meaning it was a matter of credit availability and underwriting. Under these conditions the first price reflection comes from the real estate appraisers even before the consumer takes price, further complicated by loan origination by dodgy problems of “out of car” et al processors [think one day ABNs], which culminates with demand pull by securitzation and executive remuneration metrics.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. for a more granular perspective I would suggest YS Econned and DD Chain of Title…. good luck….

      • It is clear to me that the masses desire their house prices to increase […]

        What the masses desire is increasing living standards. In contemporary Australia this manifests as a property and credit bubble, because it hasn’t been allowed to manifest in the form of increasing wages.

        But it does not _have_ to.

      • @skippy The context in which you suggested I review this doco was due to my stated (and still held, now solidified) opinion that insatiable buyers are the primary cause of our real estate price development since late 90’s. That they also increased their appetite for debt and decreased their consideration to leveraged risk only supports this further. I am completely satisfied that I applied the findings of the documentary to what makes sense for my perception of reality, as I shared above. You might call it re-framing, I call it application. Your “wanker” jab is completely unfounded.

        @drsmithy I fully expect if we get any increases in wages they will be leveraged 10:1 on real estate… and RBA will do their bit via the “look through” 🙂

      • drsmithy….

        If I might… “What the masses desire is increasing living standards” could be also said increased “rights” which might be also denominated as access to goods and services.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. not to be confused with cargo cult or consumerism for the sake of it but basic – needs – health, education, opportunity, and most importantly equal voice….

      • Classic! I’m with you Andy! And I also knew you’d elicit these responses from skip ?

        Just saying

      • Andy!….

        Your methodology of atomistic individualism does not square with the discovery process to date and I would remind that Friedman was outed in the congressional hearings as a propagandist for the developer lobby foaming the runway for this frog boiling event.

        Disheveled Marsupial… you should attempt to use facts and not preconceived notions imo… BTW your personal opinions don’t invalidate facts…. no matter how hard you try…

      • “libertarian BJ action…”

        Do you an issue with the facts? Outing your predilections is not same as established anthropogenics mig… I mean skip ?

      • Disheveled Marsupial… “you should attempt to use facts and not preconceived notions”
        Careful now you will be placed on ‘ignore’ like me.

      • ???? – Classic! I’m with you Andy! And I also knew you’d elicit these responses from skip ? – ????

        Disheveled Marsupial…. cold reading much or is this a seance mig…. you attempt to establish perimeters by poorly defined metrics… its almost like your evoking the – holey spirit – thingy… articulate old man….

      • I think it’s not so much that people want house prices to go up, it’s that house prices have gone up so much for so long that they’ve been conditioned to believe that our is a sure fire route to riches.
        Note that people call it “wealth creation”, despite the fact that if you think about it for five second it’s obvious that wealth is simply being transferred, none is created.
        That most people want continued house prices rides is not because they are evil, they simply haven’t thought about the implications further than their own noise.

      • “perimeters by poorly defined metrics… its almost like your evoking the – holey spirit”

        There are lots of hole-y spirits, you being one, bereft of the wholeness humour confers, you cast long shadows like a funeral at dusk

      • Pantone….

        RE is no different to tulips… and if one studies that history it was key players that established the market and not the sundry players e.g. people sought instant gratification i.e. to avail primordial fears about scarcity and survival.

        Dishevled Marsupial…. that much of the trading occurred in pubs whilst inebriated is just par for course… eh mig…

      • “Your better off C&P other peoples stuff….”

        I did – yours!!! ????

        Also, even more true for you..

      • The point is mig your original thinking is rubbish… you got it by lending your mind to Von Mises….

        Disheveled Marsupial…. the emoticons is a tell….

      • Naw mig – nutter… I’m sorta like the japs when they told both to f#*koff….

        Dishevel Marsupial…. I don’t confuse religion like some from animalism or celestialism to the self…. but if that is what you need to stand up right…. crutches… humanity… barf….

  5. Nothing to see here folks, concentrate on Gay marriage and global warming!
    But how about this: Europe’s biggest bank. “Our trading clients are amongst the world’s most sophisticated investors.” Deutsche Bank’s problems.
    Most point to the Libor scandal, for which the bank was fined $US2.5 billion in April 2015.
    This involved Deutsche Bank employees – traders, managing directors and a vice-president across Europe, North America and Asia – who were charged with rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) between 2004 and 2015. This was a helpful racket, because the bank was actually hiding $US12 billion in losses to avoid a government bailout following the global financial crisis.
    Two weeks after the Libor scandal D bank was fined again ($14bn) for doing business with countries that were under US sanctions between 1999 to 2006. Countries including Iran, Libya, Syria and Sudan were severely restricted because of Iran’s nuclear program and widespread human rights abuses in the region. The United States had also prohibited doing business in countries it deemed havens for possible terrorist financing. Using “non-transparent methods and practices”, Deutsche Bank conducted more than 27,000 transactions in US dollars, valued at over $US10.86 billion, for parties within all of the restricted countries.
    Deutsche Bank kicked off 2016 by announcing a record loss of €6.8 billion for the year prior. Investors took one look at that figure and fled. D Bank announced it was cutting 9000 jobs across the business and pulling out of 10 countries.
    German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said he had “no concerns” about Deutsche Bank.

    But things took a turn for the worse when it became public that Deutsche had 40 times more debt than assets on its books, holding a derivatives portfolio worth about $US46 trillion at the end of last year – about 12% of the total notional value of derivatives worldwide.
    The IMF announced D bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks” and, one day later, the US Federal Reserve said Deutsche FAILED its stress test “due to ‘poor risk management and financial planning’.”

    Wolf Richter, says that deep-seated concerns about Deutsche Bank’s ability to raise enough cash to give the market comfort that it is on a sound footing speaks to a larger problem that Europe’s embattled banking sector must combat. “the banking crisis [in Europe] has the potential to transmogrify into a financial crisis.” “All it takes is for one of the big [banks] to topple.
    Concerns are also growing about the state of Germany’s other banks. Struggling Commerzbank today outlined plans to cut 9,600 jobs, the equivalent of one in five roles, and suspend its dividend in an attempt to radically restructure its business.

    Then we have Italian banks which are saddled with billions of souring loans and are seen as a possible threat to the eurozone economy.(Italian elections in December??)

      • Thanks will include, But nothing to worry about, biggest weekend in sport ever,
        Meanwhile back on the battlefields:
        The Italian banks, have a combined €400 billion ($584.5 billion) in non-performing loans.
        But that “official” number is the tip of the iceberg,”We would think x 2″.Either way, the cost is a staggering 25-30 % of GDP.” Italy’s referendum in December is also a referendum on Prime Minister Matteo Renzi,
        “Should it fail, the government falls, and probably the Italian banking system falls.” maybe “throw the global financial system into full-blown crisis”.
        December guys, just in time for the cricket, Straya’s national SPORT

      • And just across the border, ING Groep NV, the largest Dutch lender, will announce thousands of job cuts next week.The reorganization would result in more centralized management.ING employs about 52,000 people, will give details of its strategy during an investor day on Monday 3rd October.
        The European Reaper:
        Dbank 9000
        Commerzbank9600
        ING?? Say 10,000, to be in line with the others
        Nothing to see here folks: that is only 30, 000 banksters with say a collateral number of 3 to 1,
        Say another 90,000, so total about 100,000.
        How many refugees does that equal???

    • DB is not Lehman, CDOs and Repo dramas are not present, liquidity is only a factor of access to markets.

      Disheveled Marsupial…. some seem to forget 20T+ was used in the GFC without an iota of inflation, now political tigger is another story, lots of wrangling wrt geopolitical interests imo….

      • WW….

        Do you have a contra view to offer or one that has some modicum of reality attached and can be verified. Just squeaking C&P is pretty lame, seems most of your perceptions are just a C&P by some group think mob, good luck with that.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. Its incumbent on you to show how the information is incorrect regardless of your own personal opinions or investment allocation.

      • Here let me fix that for you WW:

        Finally Bernie Sanders surrendered to the establishment by endorsing its most authentic representative: Hillary Clinton. The move sent waves of disappointment to thousands of Bernie’s supporters who expected him to make the big step: a third political formation that could crush the bi-partisan totalitarianism.

        Unfortunately it appears that the estimation expressed in previous article concerning the leaders of the new Left in global scale is right. As described back then: “The demonization propaganda is launched every time that a “radical” comes to disturb the plans of the ruling elite. Tsipras in Greece has been defeated for now, but the ruling class couldn’t avoid the rise of Corbyn in UK, Iglesias in Spain and Sanders in US. Think about it. These guys are called “radicals” by the dominant system mechanisms, just because they want to defend whatever can be saved from the Tsunami of the neoliberal barbarism. They are not even close to the real Left radicalism.”

        Indeed, all these leaders of the new Left are deluded by the fact that they think they can change the dominant neoliberal establishment from inside. And while they are spending time and effort in political tactics, the Far-Right grabs the chance to promote its agenda, attracting more and more supporters.

        Tsipras finally surrendered to the Brussels bureaufascists and the Berlin directorate by signing a third catastrophic memorandum for Greece. He hopes in a pan-European political earthquake that could wipe out the old political establishment. It appears that this earthquake will not come easily, exactly because of the behavior of the new Left. Which is something that neither Tsipras, nor Iglesias or Corbyn appear to understand.

        Meanwhile, the Greek economy struggles to survive from the ongoing neoliberal brutality imposed by the German sado-monetarists who are leading the euroship straight to the iceberg, while the Far-Right extremism waits in the corner to take the power inside the ongoing chaos and uncertainty.

        The establishment mechanisms know how to play the game. The last thing the new Left wants, is to be charged that it slips towards the Far-Right values. The establishment was ready to pull the trigger in case that Tsipras, Corbyn, or, Iglesias, “dared” to think of supporting the Brexit vote, even from a purely Leftist perspective. Even now, despite that Corbyn clearly supported the ‘Bremain’, his inner-party opponents want his ‘head in the plate’!

        A similar thing happened with Sanders. The mainstream media would start full-force attack against him, in case that he would “dare” not to endorse Clinton. They would use the routine argument, stupidly simplified through a logical leap: you do not endorse Hillary = you help Trump come to power.

        Inevitably, Bernie turned to purely political tactics, as he probably thought that it is better to endorse Hillary in order to continue the struggle from the inside. He “forced Hillary and Democrats to “bend” to the left, and start speaking about forgotten people’s rights that have been wiped out by the neoliberal hurricane. It won’t be so easy for Hillary to leave all these behind in case that she will be the next US president, because now she knows that all eyes and ears are focused on her.”

        Perhaps Bernie wants to make sure that Hillary will stay to the left. He may become an extra pair of strict political eyes on her. Hillary would find even more difficult to escape and follow the neocon/neoliberal agenda, especially when she knows that millions of Americans who are got sick of the establishment will be watching her closely.

        Meanwhile, Trump must be very happy with the new situation because he can play the anti-establishment role alone, while in reality, he is only a reserve of the establishment. In fact, the Far-Right both in Europe and the United States eventually proved very useful to the establishment. The Far-Right monster has been used as a blackmail tool for the Leftist forces to make them align behind the global neoliberal agenda. Therefore, Corbyn, Tsipras and Iglesias aligned with the establishment against Brexit and Sanders aligned with the establishment by endorsing Clinton.

        http://failedevolution.blogspot.com.au/2016/07/from-tsipras-to-corbyn-and-sanders-this.html?m=1

        Dishevelled Marsupial – it is not imo intellectually honest to complain about CP without the accurate historical optics, Apple introduced the mouse and generation of stimulus cut and response was born.

      • I have to give you credit mig that is probably the best comment you have ever made…. Kudos – !!!!!!!!!!

  6. Morrison should resign after his latest brain fart. The combination of his latest comments about free-trade and immigration with what he “doesn’t” say about proper planned immigration and free-trade is what I find disturbing coming from a Treasurer. Translation: “We will continue with our dumb-arse policies and if we don’t, you poor and middle-class will be worse off. So shut up!”

    • He’s performing admirably. Hitting all of the KPIs that are expected of him. He shall be rewarded greatly in his political afterlife.

      • You have great wisdom, footsore. Know the power of the Moron Side. The power to save your portfolio.

      • I winder what would happen in the media and wider circles of ‘power’ if he outlined our istuation and the impossibility of ever getting out of it and said “Put simply we’re f..ked’ and exited stage left.

      • Ohhhhhh….. that would be quite a scene to behold.

        But that cannot happen because the establishment will make sure that such unpredictable ones will never reach the rank of cabinet ministers in the first place.

        Flawse for the Dictator!!!

      • dumpling…..

        flawse can not even articulate what was stolen… its inferred but never actually fleshed out… sorta like the economics of some decades…. assume stuff…

      • Skippy You are incapable of either complex conception, rational thought or rational debate. You think -2 + -2 = +4 Modern Mathematical Theory. You don’t have an original thought of your own. Just parrot stuff from wherever.

      • flawse…

        Thanks for proving my point…. you can’t articulate wft you saying because you’ll have to own that perspective… chicken shit argument which more than likely is detached from both history and reality e.g. is a totalitarian religious belief that hates perspective….

        Dishevled Marsupial…. how did Abbott work out… ummm…. another false prophet… so OT….

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Scomo knows that all we got is immigration and houses ( contruction jobs and export sales ) …….needs to keep pedal to the metal on GDP until he gets his fat parliamentary pension and goes back to chairmanship of the property council or similar ……

  7. For me the most interesting event of the last week was the Blackout in SA.
    I’m real interested in the exact timing of events and the exact network currents that existed just prior to the first incident and immediately thereafter.
    I’ve got a sneaky feeling that this event will become a global test case for Rewnewables integration, I know that the traditional power industry has their pet solution and it involves using the large spinning mass of a traditional coal fired power station to stabilize the grid, it’s called Inertia.
    Personally I’m of the opinion that while Inertia will work it ties us to the past rather than leveraging the future. I’ve been doing some simplified Matlab simulations of the NSW Grid specifically wrt the integration of the planned Windfarms near Glen Innes. My network information is limited to publicly available sources but even with these crude simulations I can easily induce some really weird network current surges when the wind generation is near it’s peak and suddenly stops, starts and stops again.
    Does anyone have the exact timing of these SA events along with accurate network topology information that they can share?

      • Thanks FBB, this is a start but I’ll need way more detailed information about the failure of the under-frequency detectors to properly control and shed load once the transmission lines were shut down. I’ve got a feeling that this will show just how fragile the current systems are because the protection mechanisms are all intended for a system where the local grid frequency is dominated by a couple of closely coupled baseload power stations. Distributed wind generators along with a few Gas Turbines and the rest of the power imported from Victorian power can never provide the same frequency stability as a local baseload power generator.
        I know I’m shooting from the hip (because I simple dont have the requisite information) but I’ll bet a number of these safety load shed control points have widened their Frequency trip points to accommodate ever greater network jitter from wind based renewables. In Northern Germany / Denmark there have been a lot of similar network problems but they’ve never cascaded the way that this SA event did because the grid in that region has a much better integration / redundancy with multiple possible paths to provide power to any point. Despite this network redundancy the local grid has a dramatic increase in frequency jitter over the last decade.

    • CB you are way off track. the grid fell over cos the transmission system fell over
      The transmission system fell over cos of inadequate design, construction and maintenance.
      You will find the same Straya wide
      I hear a royal commission is planned.

      • Maybe, and it wouldn’t surprise me BUT even if this is true it doesn’t explain why the grids inbuilt safety mechanisms apparently failed to function. I’ve got a feeling there’s more to this problem,
        I know in simulations I can easily create a situation where we get power reflections similar to a sort of Termination mismatch wouldn’t be at all surprised if this was part of the SA blackout problem.

      • Is the Maintenance Strategy for Detailed Tower Inspection not set up on a 3 Yearly Strategy and then completed by 30 % annually…??

      • It will be quite interesting RCA ( Root Cause Anaysis )..Following up on RCM methodology , from a monetary loss point of view, the critical repairable spares held , for emergency repairs to be enabled , will probably be highlited..one would think..

      • Donna, the fix is already in, Notice befoer the storm the BOM was saing the weather woul dbe equivalent to storms as were encountered n the last 25 years.
        Now the Mob are saying a 1 in 50 event, looking for the Force Majeur option, and of course all the tragics are saying it is a result of global warming.
        Those towers are subject to cyclic loading, mostly caused by induced vibration from the cables and the structures themselves. Mostly the cyclic loading is caused by wind speed.
        The wind speed is determined for design by the statistical analysis of past recorded wind speeds and safety factors added.(including ,the return period, the affect of area, the effect of duration.)
        Obviously all towers in a system are affected some more than others as storms are encountered on different frequencies.
        Now, If they are convinced of global warming and any effect it would have on the weather wind and rain, in this instance rain and wind, then the maintenance intervals should have been reviewed, at least, and the structural design to follow.
        Ie if they think clobal warming increases the frequency and intensity of weather events, the dasign and maintence have to be upgraded.
        And what about changes to the clearing of the land, its effect on wind gradient.
        It is not as though we started talking about global warming yesterday or even a year ago,
        No, complacency and asleep at the wheel, not to mention broke.

      • Since overhead transmission wires depend on air for insulation, the design of these lines requires minimum clearances to be observed to maintain safety. Adverse weather conditions, such as high wind and low temperatures, can lead to power outages. Wind speeds as low as 23 knots (43 km/h) can permit conductors to encroach operating clearances, resulting in a flashover and loss of supply.[2] Oscillatory motion of the physical line can be termed gallop or flutter depending on the frequency and amplitude of oscillation.

        Impact of Extreme Weather on Transmission Line Structures

        Ibrahim Hathout, Ph.D.1; and Karen Callery, M.Sc.E.21Hydro One Inc., Transmission Lines Department, 483 Bay St., Toronto, ON, Canada M5G 2P5. E-mail: [email protected] One Inc., Transmission Lines Department, 483 Bay St., Toronto, ON, Canada M5G 2P5. E-mail: [email protected]

        High Intensity Wind (HIW) associated with tornadoes and microbursts pose a major threat to transmission line networks in Ontario and many other regions around the world. Almost all transmission structures failures in Ontario in the last 15 years can be attributed to HIW, particularly microbursts. However, when assessing the structural adequacy in accordance to current designs codes, the codes assume that synoptic wind profile provides the basis of wind loading in the design process and does not consider the HIW components associated with severe thunderstorms. Such assumptions may be leaving transmission networks exposed to an unquantified level of threat to a meteorological events associated with severe thunderstorms. In this paper, the models for tornadoes and microbursts are discussed and a case study is presented to demonstrate the destructive effects of these extreme wind events. Recommendations for revising the design criteria for extreme weather are given.

        Permalink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784479414.044

        Disheveled Marsupial… Micro bursts are a hard phenomenon to design around imo.

      • WW , do you think there is a Position held in the Org for reviewing & implementing changes to Mtce Strategies …?? Or are the standard regulatory Strategies just followed perhaps..??

      • D, this is where bullshit ceases, if you as a business are of the belief of global warming and its effects on the weather, then you MUST, alter your strategies in regard to items which are affected by that weather.
        In this instance, the owner of the transmission system Straya, World, wide, must upgrade that system to its original reliability specification.
        If you dont believe in global warming and changes to weather, then status quo.

        given current opinion is for global warming and increased weather events, all owners of infrastructure which are affected MUST upgrade, to maintain an insurance rating,
        It is going to cost HUGE amounts of money, this SA event needs a Royal Commission as the outcome is far reaching,

      • WW…

        “D, this is where bullshit ceases, if you as a business are of the belief of global warming and its effects on the weather, then you MUST, alter your strategies in regard to items which are affected by that weather.”

        Where do you get this from – ????? – for decades the only driving principle of corporatism is profit, their own charters explicitly state it e.g. officers solemn duty is to the corporation – en fin. Now as far as AGW goes the insurance industry has been cracking a fat about it for some years now and as we all know they lead the market as risk evaluators and can make life and profit miserable for you, not that unregulated insurance in the shadow sector has made things more tricky short term.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. one would think Stumpf antics would dispel such rudimentary thinking…..

      • What you’re talking about has a name and it’s called the ‘death spiral’ for a reason WW.

    • C-bob, you seem to be informed of energy issues so I’m wondering if you understand why domestic solar is unusable when the grid shuts down? I’m a simple person and don’t understand that if self generated power can be used while the grid is operational, then why can’t it be used when the grid is non operational. Most people I have asked talk about safety as the issue, but it doesn’t gel with me …… maybe I’m a luddite in these matters but if my battery is charged then why can’t I utilise that power? Are you able to explain? Thnx.

      • The house inverters are designed to switch off if there’s no external mains.

        It’s simply done for safety of workers working on power poles and lines.

        If you get an isolation changeover switch installed that connects your own power source and disconnects the mains, it is legal, but you’ll need a different inverter that doesn’t need external mains, and that is wired so that it can’t feed into the external grid.

        Alternatively, run your house off batteries, and have the batteries charged by the grid when your own power source isn’t charging them. No possibility of feeding power to the grid thieves there.

      • Thnx WW – is this so even when the using power from my battery storage? That’s what I don’t understand. My impression was that when using self stored power then the grid is isolated, hence no base load is required from the grid to maintain the inverter. Still a tad confused.

      • Thnx rj …….so it is a safety issue after all. I thought I was being conned.
        So what I need to do is talk to a private installer to make the necessary adjustments whereby I utilise all power from the battery source and top up the battery with the grid when my solar is not producing.

      • From what I understand there are far more regulatory than technical issues to be overcome. But to be fair lets look at the obvious technical issues first.
        Technical problems:
        Islanding: basically Electricity distribution workers need know how to shut down sections of the grid so that they can safely do repairs, this means that whenever the main feeds to you local grid are shutdown they want any and all grid connected PV or Battery Inverters to also automatically shut down. You could in theory achieve this safety function by isolating your house completely from the grid with a simple isolating switch on all three of the conductors. If you do this your house power can remain up while the rest of the street is shutdown. However there are a couple of possible issues with this, one that comes immediately to mind has to do with the typical Earth or Ground for the local system. I believe most Australian homes use a style of Ground called TN-C-S
        see …https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthing_system
        To be absolutely sure you had completely isolated yourself you’d need to have a TT grounding arrangement. Using a TT arrangement is likely to have some unexpected consequences such as the failure of household Ground Isolation .devices (which is a local safety issue for your house) A TT ground also causes problems with increased Electromagnetic emissions from household wiring especially if any sort of local in house Power line communications systems are used (way to complex to go into here)
        I’m sure there are other issues so at the moment grid operators have basically created rules that forbid this mode of operation….or at least that’s my understanding.
        BTW an Off-Grid Inverter is usually a Sine-Wave Inverter these cost about twice what a typical Grid Inverter costs. The typical Grid connected inverter must sync to the local Grid so it always needs this feed in frequency to reference its own operation. There’s a lot of FUD printed about possible failure of electronics if your off grid house uses a Grid connected style inverter, however to be honest I’ve only seen problems when driving large motors, they create a problem with the output stage of the inverter that’s called Supply-Pumping…way to complex to go into here.

      • May want to google the difference between net meter systems and gross metering systems; there are also bidirectional systems that can potentially do both.

        However, in principle, the gross system is set up so that all electricity goes into the grid from the panel, and all electricity is consumed from the grid.

        A net system is wherein you take electricity from the panels first and surplus or deficit is met by the grid.

        In essence the grid is a really expensive battery.

        You’re feeding into the LV or low voltage network, which requires to be withing voltage parameters (read the standards guides for these).

        Traditionally, electricity flowed down the system one way only from a generator, stepping down in voltage from the HV to the low volt network – and to the residence. The LV network was able to be maintained locally by control systems that were pretty much an up and down – and then segmented by tap settings from the HV to LV. These electricity lines were not designed for two way flows of electricity.

        Smart grids in some jurisdictions do a better job, however if you have 2 suburbs with a hell of house owners next with solar next to a suburb full of renters with no solar you’re in trouple with regulating even flow to both of these areas across the network – as it’s not like the operator has a list of parameters for user usage other than historical cycles, which changes as weather swings and technology shifts, and new panels are added.

        What would have made more sense is for the networks to put the panels where they need them to balance the electricity flows.

        My laymans take on it.

        Very similar to velocity of money – just that some people get to have their own mini fiat machine to a cap of daylight hours times by 40KW nameplate or whatever

      • Thanks yok … I have a net system. Works for us as we use our power during the day and the grid at night. We export enough to charge a battery but this gives no security when the grid drops out because my system shuts down too ……irritating when you get six cents ………$20-40 bucks a quarter. My quarterly bill is $400-600 so the system works well barring the power outs of which we have many. Hence my interest in putting the question out there. I’m going to follow through tho with the recent debacle.

      • Gross vs net is just a metering/billing construct AFAIK. The physical connectivity is identical.

      • To be honest I’m specifically trying to minimize / eliminate spinning reserves and replace this function with localized frequency, harmonic distortion and phase angle correction. However the problems persisted even with spinning reserves because the root cause seems to be source impedance mismatch. It looks like a classic communications problems of a load reflection which the source cant absorb so you get this voltage doubling on the transmission line.
        I’m real new to the game of modelling electricity grids so it could easily be a modelling problem resulting from insufficient damping on the transmission line model. unfortunately I can find very little public information on modelling electricity grids so I kinda developed my models from first principles.
        The underlying problem seems to be the distance between these large windfarms and any significant loads, when I reduce the length of the connection everything works fine.

      • Thanks guys, looks like I’ve got my homework….
        unfortunately what I’m seeing is that the Australian grid behaves very different from US or European grids because of the large distances between significant loads (capital cities) and these remote Renewable Wind generation resources.
        I sure hope my modeling is wrong otherwise were in for some nasty expensive shocks (excuse the pun) under various fault cases.
        Sorry for the delay responding I’m just over all the mindless arguing that goes on at MB these days.

  8. Interesting timing by Scott Morrison to give a speech about free trade and immigration when the rednecks Richard and Wiley wolf types are busy with AFL/NRL. I am sure slomo has even requested 2GB and Murdoch Press not to publish his speech.

    • MAV, how are you, what is happening with HC.
      there are videos of her going around even I am not game to put up.
      This is reality TV at it best.

    • While I may not agree with everything Richard says, or how he frames things, I think there are real problems with the type of “free trade” and migration levels our politicians zealously support. People might be distracted today, but the pain coming our way this decade remains very real!

    • WW, I am busy bemoaning the Zerohedgification of MB commentators. BB below is a good example. Every formerly sensible long term commentator seem to have gone crazy. Is it due to the insane house prices?

      Rob, I am anti free trade and anti population ponzi as they come. But that does not mean I start dumping on Muslims.

    • “But that does not mean I start dumping on Muslims.”

      Indeed! I too want to see a rational debate on immigration- not one fuelled by racism or xenophobia.

  9. What’s the issue with providing funding to Maccas for providing qualifications/training Gunna? I presume you support government funded university degrees, etc. Should government only fund training in the intellectual learning space?

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Just that every last business held up as a paragon of contemporary service providing capitalism turns out to be a succubus on the public teat.

      As a former IR man I wouldn’t care to think how many sessions of ‘your employees are the most significant resource’ ‘your employees are the best investment you will ever make’ or the only way for the company to move into the future is to invest in employee culture and align that with company vision (etc etc etc)’

      Lets think about what training would be provided by Maccas (etc) – would basically boil down to workplace safety, handling food items, taking cash, smiling at customers – all of which are pretty cheap to provide tuition or retraining in.

      My issue is with the government funding training which is directly focused on company profits and is core to a company business – because it is yet another example of milking taxpayers for the corporate bottom line. When it is for something as basic as the needs for Maccas there is a problem.

      Government funding for education should be about generating economic growth for the future or addressing market failure in a social sense (addressing social imbalance – ie bright kids miss out on careers because they are poor) rather than supplementing operational costs for tax minimising corporates paying as little as they can get away with to employees, encouraging bad dietary practices, flooding media with mindless advertising.

      Government paying for Maccas training smacks of government paying for an operational cost associated with locking in socio economically marginalised youth on go nowhere career paths in low paying service gigs which will be dispensed with as soon as Maccas (of whoever) can get the robots or work out how to get the customers to do it themselves.

      • You don’t think the training provided at universities would benefit many of the corporations those with degrees end up at?

        Yes, some of the training provided at Maccas is somewhat basic (as would the same courses be if provided at TAFE or some other training centre), but they are world renowned for their training programs and as someone who went through their management training (a long time ago) it certainly goes deeper and contributes to the skillset of those ultimately running businesses with $1M+ in revenues.

        I wish I had time to reply in more detail, but alas am on my phone, away for the long weekend, about to enjoy a stroll along the coast.

      • I’m with you Gunna, I get BBs point superficially but if MCDs management training is comprehensive it’s that because it works for them. If they want to spin off a MBA school have at it

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        You don’t think the training provided at universities would benefit many of the corporations those with degrees end up at?

        All education (almost all of which is either directly provided by or heavily subsidised by government) benefits corporates – given that, you would they would be a little more enthusiastic about paying tax – seeing as it comes back to them in a fairly tangible form to support their operations. All education related outlays by government should be about (as I mentioned above) either generating economic growth or addressing socio economic imbalances/injustices, and all should be about enhancing the educational basis of the individuals (as opposed to supplementing the corporate [training] bottom line) unless enhancing the organisations [particularly when those organisations are companies – set up to produce profit for a few from the demand of the many off the labours of the more] accords with either the economic development or social iniquity address angles

        Yes, some of the training provided at Maccas is somewhat basic (as would the same courses be if provided at TAFE or some other training centre), but they are world renowned for their training programs and as someone who went through their management training (a long time ago) it certainly goes deeper and contributes to the skillset of those ultimately running businesses with $1M+ in revenues.

        My experiences with people who have done the Maccas training is that it is profoundly basic, and although TAFEs etc have been degraded it is capable of greater complexity than that required by training for low level food service needs. The only ‘renown’ I am aware of with Maccas training is with how cheaply it is delivered, and from there I would be asking if it is ‘renowned’ then why would it require a government to support it? The fact that it contributes to the running of business with more than 1 million in revenues bring me also at least to the question of why a business with such revenues cant actually fund its own training and would be relying on the government? Off the top of my head I cant really think of a single socio economic benefit provided by Maccas which couldnt be provided by [inter alia] Cons fish and chip shop, the fast food bay marie at the local truckers roadhouse, the donut stall at the footy etc – the ‘deeper’ and ‘contributing to skill sets’ would be of about the same magnitude.

        I wish I had time to reply in more detail, but alas am on my phone, away for the long weekend, about to enjoy a stroll along the coast.

        Well why not pop into Maccas on the way and ask yourself if the government should be providing the training for that pimply faced kid to ask if you want fries with that or if it is contributing to some great Economy – for either the people of Australia, or that pimply faced kid.

      • To make one thing clear, I am not for Maccas being provided public funding for training/education any more so than any other institution.

        Your comment about government funding purely for ‘economic growth’ & ‘imbalances/injustices’ sounds like ideological garbage that we’d have no way of practically implementing seeing as everyone would have a different view of what that would entail.

        & your comparison of a Maccas store to the complexities of a fish and chip shop/donut stall just highlights your ignorance, prejudice against big business or perhaps both.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        To make one thing clear, I am not for Maccas being provided public funding for training/education any more so than any other institution.

        But there you were questioning why I would have an issue with it……

        Your comment about government funding purely for ‘economic growth’ & ‘imbalances/injustices’ sounds like ideological garbage that we’d have no way of practically implementing seeing as everyone would have a different view of what that would entail.

        So what is your understanding/framework of the raison d’etre for outlays from the budget again?

        & your comparison of a Maccas store to the complexities of a fish and chip shop/donut stall just highlights your ignorance, prejudice against big business or perhaps both.

        Maybe, but I have had a lucrative career bailing big business out of employee issues, participating in it (as an HR/IR man) and then observing it as a journalist. Feel free to enlighten me as to the superior intellectual requirement of Maccas vis the local chippy. They get things in, prepare them, and shunt them out in exchange for cash, while keeping the envirronment nice …….

        Note to self: If the Bulldogs get blown away in the first quarter today, it may be a good day to go fishing – they’re biting

      • I just find it bizarre that commentary here is typically in favor of government funded tertiary education, but then rails against some chump change thrown at Maccas for training/education they provide.

        I would prefer everyone pays for their own education (post childhood), but while government is flinging big dollars at tertiary institutions I don’t see the issue with them providing some funding for alternative training institutions regardless of their size/business model.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        …..and I find it every bit as bizarre that amidst so much commentary about ensuring budget funded outlays are spent wisely and effectively we have someone expiating ‘chump change’ be handed over to multinational tax avoiders who provide a service revolving around unhealthy food, while offering go nowhere jobs to the children of the socioeconomically marginalised to support their ‘renowned’ training programmes.

        Government funded education I totally support. Why we would be conflating ‘chump change’ being handed to Maccas [et al] with support for public education is beyond me however. But handing over taxpayer funds to support business (for any reason) needs to be done with total accountability to a stated policy purpose.

      • Great point you made above, Jacob. Of course, it wouldn’t make sense if national interests or well-being of citizens mattered.

        As Sir Humphrey said, there is democracy and then there is British (read Australian) democracy.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Thats a mighty fine read there Pfh and I pretty much agree it is a perfectly desirable outcome.

      It is the transitioning from the model we currently operate under (essentially a form of pocketpicking kleptocracy by self promoting psychopaths [and associated beneficiaries]) that I have some questions about. Feel free to accuse me of being a Trotskyist if you will, but I would have thought that ultimately you are talking about revolution – I dont think the beneficiaries are going to give up their positions in the chaise lounge being carried about on the back of the punterariat, and are highly likely to devote considerable energy (and funds – lets not forget the funds, which they are inclined to believe are theirs by right to deploy as they feel appropriate) to promoting great amounts of fear, misinformation etc about any sentiment looking for change along the lines of that which I believe you are implicating.

      Ultimately – and I speak only for myself – I think that if it is change we need then it is revolution we need, and that that revolution will by necessity require significant social disruption, and almost certainly bloodshed. That is why for me it boils down almost to suck it up and get out into the backyard to prune the roses and ignore the injustices of the world while listening to either the offerings of ABC Classic FM or indulging in perhaps a side wager on whatever 8 race card on the menu, or googling information on how I make my own home grown nuclear or biological weapons with a view to facilitating that said revolution.

      In the interests of being nice (my wife is inclined to kick if she senses me getting antisocial about my political/economic thoughts, or making observations which she feels may cut close to the bone for whatever neighbors we are interacting with) I stick with doing the mundane. But in doing this I do find myself often mulling over the implications of my suck it up approach (and weak cowardice as many righteous revolutionaries inhabiting my mind often point out for me) and dreaming of a better world. It is just that the only way I can think of to get there (and this may reflect poorly on my intellectual abilities) is to become a complete c*nt.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        For info mate, I tried to post that same reply at your website and seemed to lock myself out – as indeed many do for my own website – http://ritualisedforms.com

        I am not sure what the issue is but if you come up with any observations on how wordpress work that way could you give me a hoy.

      • Not sure how you might have been locked out as I turned off most of the moderation stuff a while ago.

        I might try Dr Google and see if anyone has had that problem and knows what causes it.

        As for the revolution – I don’t think it would require that but I suspect it will take the wheels falling off to some degree so that people are forced to start talking about doing something.

        I think it is already happening now. The inability of CB to really kick start economic activity with the Debt Machine post the GFC is being noticed by just about everyone. The problem of too much debt of all types is now getting a lot more press.

        Slowly but surely people are starting to realise that the only thing that really worked effectively post GFC were things that really got money out across the economy (fiscal) and the limits of pumping asset prices as a transmission mechanism are getting hard to ignore.

        Even the most dim-witted neoliberal fan boi understands that some other method of getting new money out into the economy is required when everyone is stuffed to the gills with debt and new money creation in the form of bank lending is grinding to a halt.

        I think the only real problem is that they are struggling to come up with some rationalisation as to how you do that without undermining your glorious vision splendid of privatised money creation. I am sure they are well aware that if they start playing with the facade or big lie – that is the privatisation of public money creation – there is a risk that too many of the public will cotton on to what a massive scam it is.

        The privatisation of public money creation (when the state decided to back stop private bank note issuance and eventually give private bank notes the same status as bank notes issues by the central bank) is arguably the earliest form and most profitable form of privatisation of a public asset.

        What better can you have than the ability to create new money?

        My bet is that the FIRE sector will kick and scream if anyone tries to explicitly move most money creation to the public sector as that will reduce them to cardigan wearing intermediaries BUT they may tolerate more money creation by their Central Bank buddies. They think they can trust their Central Bank buddies to let them back into the money creation picture after the Central Bank deleverages the economy.

        How would a Central Bank do what the elected government should really be doing? By doing something like buying up bonds issued by municipals or state governments issued to support public works and paying for them with fresh accounting entries.

        That would get plenty of money out into the economy, build lots of infrastructure and not require any serious discussion of the elephant in the room – that the elected government should be making the decisions and directly monetising the process – at least until inflation limits their scope of action.

        Central Bank administered Keynesian economics.

        But FIRE may well succeed in avoiding that and having the pseudo fiscal activity handled by the Central Bank that is ‘independent’ of the political process – lol.

        After all most people do not understand that the Fed’s purchase of mortgage backed securities was essentially along these lines.

        People were given mortgages to buy properties and then the Fed bought those mortgages off the originators with fresh crispy accounting entries so the originators could continue the process. The Fed was cranking out new public money at the rate of $10B per month for several years buying up those newly created mortgages. That was a bunch of real $$ flowing out into the US economy. The Fed did not have to borrow that money from anyone – it just created it just as it would if it was conducting an open market operation as part of managing the interbank / target rate.

        So if I was to make a prediction it would be that we will get some explicit monetisation and it will probably start in the US – though they have already had a bucket load which is why they have actually deleveraged – but it will be conducted by the unelected undemocratic Fed so that the private bank franchise on money creation is preserved.

        Long story short – don’t hold your breath waiting for another housing bust in the USA but one is possible in Australia if our dumbo pollies keep following the neo-liberal recipe book when the USA interest rates start rising after their stealth reflation / monetisation starts to drive their unemployment rate below 5%.

      • Pfh007,
        In qe1 & 3 The fed didn’t buy any private label MBS. They only bought agencies with an explicit government guarantee. So there was nothing fiscal about it at all. Even if treasury had of bought the agency MBS (which they did in the early stages prior to qe1 I think) it still wasn’t fiscal. Because they were on the hook for losses either way. When Paulson put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship that was fiscal, when the Fed bought agency MBS that was monetary. The distinction matters.
        Also I still think the private money thing is barking up the wrong tree. Most banks wouldn’t care if the deposit license was taken away. Because it’s as much a burden as a special privilege. In the early 70s it was more profitable to establish money market funds (and pay interest on all liabilities) rather than take deposits at 0%. Why? Because it circumvented regulation and freed up the asset side. Most banks would be happy to become non-banks (or pure intermediaries under your definition) – if it came with less regulation.

      • Pretty much Sweeper….

        Disheveled Marsupial…. the only thing I would add is the ideological drag by vested interests due to reduced influence in the social narrative… akin to prying gold away from those so unforgettably conditioned….

      • Sorry Sweeper that doesn’t hold water! If that’s what banks wanted they would not get rid G-S and could divest deposit accounts any time they want! Pfh is right, if they don’t want to control money supply they can become a hedge fund any time they want

      • Banks – Free market mig…

        Disheveled Marsupial…. what part of libertarianism and banks alludes you….

        PS. you Catholics are scary… the fundamentalist i mean

      • Yeah those abo Jesuits ming…

        Disehvled Marsupial…. or do you think this is just a recent set of events…. sight*

      • Mig,
        Isn’t that pretty much what has happened? As they have been deregulated banks have started to imitate hedge funds. ie. Proportion of non-money like liabilities has grown much much faster than money like demand deposits which banks usually want to hold reserves against. Actually; rephrasing, as banks have been deregulated, and as credit has grown out of control, demand deposits have shrunk as a share of liabilities. Banks have grown by becoming more hedge fund like…
        Here is an interesting paper re the Keating deregulation period in Australia.
        http://fsi.treasury.gov.au/content/downloads/PubSubs/000090d.pdf

        Keating deregulated the liability side by allowing banks to borrow on a term basis (by offering higher interest rates) and through the wholesale markets. And the asset side by removing credit rationing.
        The result: banks shrunk their money like liabilities as a share of liabilities dramatically and simultaneously expanded credit dramatically.
        If zero interest demand deposits were such a free lunch as Pfh007 describes.. Why would they do that? Why would they term out their liability side, pay more interest and become more “intermediary” like if they could simply grow their assets by “creating money”. The story doesn’t fit at all. It’s actually the reverse story. Banks grew by becoming more non-bank like. And they were allowed to do this by free market fanatics. And it’s the same across the world. Credit wasn’t financed through private money creation. Look at the Fed’s balance sheet in the 10 yrs leading up to the GFC. It barely grew. If all the credit growth was supported by private money creation surely the banks would have desired higher reserves, and surely the Fed would have accommodated to maintain the Fed Funds rate. Yet it didn’t happen. So something is wrong here. Either the private money thing isn’t a special privilege and has been overhyped or the management of banks aren’t aware of the special powers they have (and never have been).

      • Sorry Sweeper but nomenclature is getting in the way – hedge fund liabilities are not covered by – the de mínimas – deposit insurance… Which is why depos exist and repos are leveraged from them

      • Sweeper….

        Stop bothering the breathers…. all [man]kinds woes are bloody women and lenders…. not that lenders should have any restrictions or how else would one burnish cavate emptor…. aka I jack myself off at the demise of others….

      • Who said anything about insurance?
        If it comes to that all of the banks funding was guaranteed in the aftermath of the GFC. So what are we talking about? What’s money under your definition? Anything with a guarantee?
        The guarantee thing is irrelevant.
        Hedge fund liabilities/equity arent money because they are not instantly redeemable. If it can’t be converted to cash on demand obviously it can’t have been created in the act of buying stuff/lending. Banks have decided to fund themselves the same way.. That is become less bank like.
        Could we keep this simple rather than going off on to an unrelated and irrelevant topic about guarantees.

      • Sweeper,

        The fact that banks are engaging in lots of business either directly or via subsidiaries that is similar to hedge funds does not mean that their status as ADIs and what that means is irrelevant.

        I think you are confusing plain jane credit creation which everyone can engage in with credit creation as public money.

        They are closely related but they are different. That excellent paper that Skippy posted some weeks ago about franchise finance explained the distinction and relationship between credit creation as public money and the enormous mountains of credit created by shadow ‘banking’.

        Thanks for that Westpac document – though it was a little glossy on deregulation.

      • 007….

        Um… no… to confuse any thing monetary pre say 45ish with post is a categorical error… tho some philosophical – historical common ground is applicable. Even with the disagreements we have 007 its bad form for the blog and accuracy to enable perspectives which are contrary to actual events and why, especially the agency behind the application of the system.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. its a bit late to lament the antiquarian retail banking system now that the shadow sector et al play such a huge role…

      • I think referring to hedge funds was an error. That was a response to Mig’s question along the lines “why don’t banks ditch their license and become hedge funds”. Then I said in a sense that is what has happened. What I’m getting at is the issue of instant redeemability.
        Obviously if a bank is issuing more and more liabilities which can’t be redeemed on demand and money-like deposits are falling as a share of liabilities replaced by non-money like term deposits, bonds, hybrids etc as credit is growing dramatically, then it is clear that banks cannot be financing new lending through money creation/private fiat etc? I hope that is agreed.
        Which either leaves 2 alternatives:
        1. Deposit taking banks are not aware of the special privilege they have in creating demand deposits, or
        2. Banks are aware that being able to create is *not* a special privilege and when taking into account that people only want to hold small transaction balances and any excess dd creation will return as either term deposits/debt repayments or leak from the bank, and given that there is a cost in lost revenue/regulation issuing dd’s, the privilege is actually somewhat of a burden. And at the end of the day they are just another intermediary. And if they want to grow their lending they face exactly the same constraints as a non bank who isn’t able to issue money like liabilities.
        Because that fits with the data.

      • Agree with Skippy. the thing that gets me most with this discussion is the lack of historical evidence to support it.
        It’s a theory to fit a bias or a dug in position. When you point out the data (and logic) says otherwise all of a sudden the goalposts move and the topic becomes guarantees and new lines of business, hedge funds etc.

      • Sweeper,

        I am having difficulty following your argument.

        Are you claiming that the contents of loan accounts created by ADIs are vanishing from the banking system?

        The contents of those loan accounts end up as deposits in the hands of those who the borrowers make transfers to. Those deposits might be at call or they may at term. You seem to be making a distinction between the two and then only comparing only one with ADI credit creation. But I am not sure.

        As long ADIs expand their balance sheets by creating loans uniformly and the contents of those loan accounts redistribute in a reasonable even fashion the only limiting factor are the prudential sea anchors that APRA may or may not impose.

        I agree with you about the huge edifice of financial instruments, bets and wages that have been created through deregulation and that they present serious risks but that really doesn’t address the issue of why the IOUs of ADIs should be treated as if they were issued by the public especially having regard to the way they are inevitably issued to the owners of existing assets as security is generally a condition of lending.

        Plus while all the exotic forms of general non ADI credit, derivatives, wagers etc present real risks none of them are able to affect the money supply which can only be destroyed by taxation of a reduction in ADI credit.

        You may argue that you believe that the new forms are more dangerous but that does not negate criticisms of privatised public money creation.

        Have you read that article that Skip posted?

        http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2820176

      • Yes term deposits are different. You can’t make payments with them. So you can’t argue that banks create TD’s in the course of lending.
        The argument is simple. There is only a small proportion of money-like deposits banks want to create and people want to hold. If they create too much, they return to the bank as TD or as a debt repayment somewhere down the chain of transactions or leak out as currency.
        A bank only issuing money like deposits would have to be very small with very liquid assets – like banks were before they were deregulated. To grow their lending and become bohemoths they issued more and more non-money liabilities. So, far from exploiting a privilege you seem to think they have, they did the opposite and became more obvious intermediaries. And they had to because even when issuing 0% deposits they were still only intermediating in a round about way and attracting savings. And not everyone wants to hold all their savings in 0% deposits at all times, so they had to offer IOU’s people would actually want to hold over longer periods (none of which could be confused with money)
        Moral of the story, it isn’t a privilege and they wouldn’t really care if they lost their deposit taking licences because they grew their businesses in spite of it anyway. In someways it is a burden.

      • Sweeper,

        Thanks for clarification as it does help to understand your argument but there are some problems with it.

        “…Yes term deposits are different. You can’t make payments with them. So you can’t argue that banks create TD’s in the course of lending….”

        “… And they had to because even when issuing 0% deposits they were still only intermediating in a round about way and attracting savings….”

        Banks don’t issue 0% deposits.

        You are confusing the contents of loan account (which to avoid confusion I am not calling a deposit but yes banks do call them that) which a bank does create, with the contents of those loan accounts when deposited by someone else who has received a transfer – by cheque or EFT – from the owner of the loan account. If they subsequently move that deposit to a TD it makes no difference – it is just a deposit limited by term. The original source was still a loan account (leaving the small amount of public sector created deposits to one side)

        A bank creates a loan account and when the borrower starts to draw down on that account they start paying interest (if not earlier).

        When the recipent of transfer from the borrower deposits the proceeds they start to be paid interest (not much at the moment).

        If they choose to enter a TD contract with the bank the deposits is moved to a TD account and because they have agreed to a term or constraint on their use of the deposit they get paid more interest.

        Bank’s need TDs because prudential rules require banks to have some level of them having regard to the loan book they created.

        Bank’s dont care who enters a TD contract with them provided they can offer as little interest as possible. Foreign capital from ZIRP/NIRP environments will accept a lower reward than Aussies so the TD rates are effectively bid down unless the foreign capital loses some interest and then TD rates start to rise. Foreign investors acquire at call deposits so they can place them at term. That is why relying on foreigners in this way puts upward pressure on the exchange rate.

        Banks make money from the split between the rate they demand on the loans they create and the rate they pay when those loan account (deposits) come back in the form of deposits from people who received transfers from borrowers.

        The only leakage is to the other banks when a borrower transfers a loan account contents to someone who banks at a different bank but there are no deposits lost to the system.

        Only ADI can maintain deposit accounts. No one else can. That is what makes them an ADI.

        The point you are overlooking is that the deposits they ‘take’ were ‘made’ previously by them (or another ADI).

        To say that they are not interested in the business of being an ADI is odd – even when the profits are low due to a narrow split between the amounts charged on loans advanced and amounts paid on deposits accepted. Do you really think banks are not interested in the profits from creating residential loan mortgages having regard to the low prudential requirements (i.e. expenses) of APRA for loans of that type?

        Their ADI functions are the FOUNDATION of their most valuable and profitable relationships.

        What profits they dont make from being a glorified building society with hundreds of billions in outstanding loans they make from being at the core of every significant deal in the country and offering services to both sides of the deal.

        Did I mention trading on their own account ? That too.

      • Maybe I’m misunderstanding what youre getting at Sweeper, I read that PDF on deregulation and if what you’re saying is banks would rather borrow on the open market when you sign up for a loan than borrow from you via a demand deposit, maybe I can buy that – but now it’s organised a loan account for you, are you saying they don’t give a shit where it ends up?

      • Mig,

        That is certainly the case. When it comes to acquiring the deposits that their operations require OR the APRA prudential requirements require they don’t really care. They will get them whereever they can at lowest possible cost and with least transaction costs.

        Those ZIRP/NIRP region inhabitants are often the cheapest source (and involve much less hassle than domestic greybeards) but because those markets can freeze there is some risk attached which is why APRA told the banks to reduce that source after the GFC. Note – The recent fresh wave of bank pigging out on cheap unproductive offshore capital may have something to do with the post GFC Fed swap lines which essentially mean the RBA can assist the banks stay liquid if a freeze occurs.

        BUT and this is an important but. While the banks may not care who controls the deposits they need to ‘take’ some things do not change.

        1. The majority of deposits placed with the banks originated in private bank loan accounts – and are ‘made’ by banks.

        2. The majority of those loan accounts relate to residential mortgage lending.

        3. The banks make very tidy profits from the split between the rates from creating those residential loans and the cost of acquiring whatever deposits they need to operate and to keep APRA happy.

        4. The banks use their status as ADIs and the functions of an ADI to give them access to all manner of other profitable activities.

        Which is why our banks are some of the biggest juiciest and hungriest vampire squids in the banking sea.

      • It definitely does matter if it returns as as TD; because if it does that means the special privilege doesn’t exist. The banks may as well have sourced the funds offering a competitive interest rate in the first place. ie they are only intermediating.
        In reality, most of the time as I also said, if a bank were to create an excess in 0% demand deposits through lending, it would more likely return to the bank as a debt repayment in the chain of transactions. This is called reflux. In other words the bank literally cannot increase its overall loans through money creation. To repeat that; the bank cannot increase its overall loans through money creation. If they try, they would find their overall loan book refuse to grow as offsetting loan repayments occur somewhere else in their book. Unless they pay competitive interest and offer non-money like IOU’s. Again what this means is; money creation ability does not effect the level of lending. It may even be a constraint given regulations around issuing checking accounts which limit their returns on this capital. To grow their business banks have to issue more non-money liabilities and more clearly appear as pure intermediaries. Therefore it isn’t a privilege and I maintain they wouldn’t care if it was taken away (especially if future bailouts were guaranteed).
        Imagine a world where Keating had taken away all deposit licenses in the 80’s yet had implemented all the other deregulation, I would strongly suggest that household debt would be just as bad today if not worse – only difference RBA’s balance sheet would be bigger to accommodate greater need for base money in the absence of demand deposits. But if that’s true, and I think it is, clearly the banks “money creation” abilities are not at the core of the problem.

      • Sweeper,

        Did you read that paper I linked? The one that Skippy posted some weeks ago.

        “…In other words the bank literally cannot increase its overall loans through money creation. To repeat that; the bank cannot increase its overall loans through money creation. ..”

        I confess that I find it difficult to follow your arguments because that sentence sounds as though you do not accept that when a bank enters a contract with a borrower, and creates an account representing the loan granted, the expansion of the bank balance sheet that results effectively involves the creation of money.

        Banks can grant as many loans and create as much money as they like subject only to the effective constraints imposed on the process by the RBA and APRA. They are actual constraints so if you think I am saying that banks can just create loans / money till the cows come home, I am not.

        Here is another article that may be helpful.

        http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2255925

        It is written by a former South African central banker and I think he does a pretty good job of explaining the relationship between exogenous and endogenous ideas around money creation.

        It might help us cut through this impasse. I read your extended comment about deregulation recently so I am confident we are on the same page with regards to some of the consequences of deregulation and fictionalization over the last 40 years. It may be that our differences are more apparent than real.

        “….The Post-Keynesians offered the antithesis of Monetarism: that bank lending creates
        deposits. However, they were perhaps unfair in their criticism. Monetarism in the
        form of the strict money rule (control the monetary base and money creation is
        controlled), does not mean that money is created in any other way but by bank
        lending (in the main; for a detailed discussion see Faure, 2012a). It is a monetary
        policy model, not a method of money creation. Money can only be created by new
        net bank lending (for a detailed explanation, see Faure, 2012b). …”

        Here are some of his other publications (and no I have not read them all). Plenty of familiar topics but it is interesting that they seem to taught without controversy in SA.

        http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2255925

      • Unwanted money creation refluxes back to the bank in debt repayments. So the balance sheet doesn’t expand.
        Yes I read some of that paper Skippy provided and it isn’t really relevant to this discussion. The paper is more about the incidence of saving. Whether banks lend pre-accumulated funds, or generate saving in the process of lending. Keynes made the same argument in the GT – the act of lending (and spending) generates the loanable funds not the other way round. Although it depends what is constraining credit/the economy at any point in time. It is a different discussion to whether deposit creation is a special privilege.
        To cut to the chase I have read a heap of papers over the years on this topic both monetarist, old Keynesian and even MMT. Monetarist and old Keynesian both end up in the same position (for different reasons) that banks are just intermediaries at the end of the day. MMT is seriously flawed. The clearest logic (which fits with the data) imo is provided by the old Keynesians like Tobin who emphasised the importance of reflux. If you can’t address the issue of reflux amongst other things I would suggest you may be barking up the wrong tree.
        This isn’t actually a new discussion. It’s been debated (and settled) over 80+ years.

      • Also the quote above about monetarism isn’t correct.
        Monetarist like Friedman and Laidler never/don’t claim that deposits only precede bank lending. All they said was the qty of money like deposits created was tightly controlled by the monetary policy rule the CB adopted. In other words only the CB could control broad money growth. So commercial bank money creation had no macroeconomic significance.

      • Fair enough Sweeper but the confusion may just stem from the difference between everything you just stated about bank functions and everything the banks tell us they exist for – keep your money safe, allow you to grow savings, blah blah blah – so like I’m always saying all they is do perform a task any boring algo could do. So why do they exist at all? Any device these days can do the job of intermediation

      • Sweeper,

        “..This isn’t actually a new discussion. It’s been debated (and settled) over 80+ years…”

        What has been settled for over 80+ years? Tobin’s concept of reflux?

        http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d01/d0159.pdf

        Perhaps I am not following your explanation of the reflux concept but I am not sure I understand how an excess of deposits resulting from “too much” loan creation by private banks ‘refluxes’ and extinguishes those loans unless they find their way to the actual borrowers and they choose to apply them to paying down their loans.

        Plus I don’t see any inconsistency between the idea of lots of deposits being created by lending, perhaps leading to some people having more deposits than they desire (are there such people?) yet a mismatch between who has control over them and who may desire them for the purposes of repaying their loans.

        But as you reckon this paper will reveal all I will give it a read with an open mind.

        This article contains a bunch of links about all and sundry who have discussed the Tobin paper recently so they will also be on my reading list.

        http://jpkoning.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/do-banks-have-widows-cruse.html

        I see Cullen Roche chimed in as well

        http://www.pragcap.com/banks-are-special-the-ins-outs-of-money/

      • Tobin hit the nail on the head imo.
        Also it’s not that people don’t want deposits; it’s that there is a limit given they can do something profitable like buy a banks IOU, repay debt or withdraw the deposit for 0% base (without the credit risk).

      • Sweeper,

        I am still chewing over Tobin – that 1963 paper did not mention reflux but at first glance he does seem to be arguing we can ignore banks as being ‘special’. Which appears to be why Krugman referred to him in response to PK criticism that Krugman ignores banks/money.

        At the very least your claim this issue is settled is not really accurate – the role of banks remains a red hot issue – even if your position is that Tobin is not saying what Krugman seems to think he is saying.

        Though I liked the comments under this blogpost – sounds like the sort of debate we will have once I am satisfied I am clear what Tobin’s position is and that concept of ‘reflux’. Ramanan sounds like a major Tobin fan.

        http://www.winterspeak.com/2013/08/a-bank-is-not-financial-intermediary.html

        Can you point me to the Tobin paper where he discusses the concept of reflux in some detail. You seem to be referring to something that is not in the 1963 paper.

        For now I remain a member of the banks are ‘special’ club.

    • I watch the Miami market for high end condos (my US company owned a condo in Miami Beach) and both sales and prices at the high are pulling back from the peak of last year. Same seems to be happening in Connecticut and some parts of NYC. New rules are in effect to track the beneficial owners for company, trust and offshore purchased properties. Wouldn’t say it is alarming, just interesting. If the USD strengthens strongly, I would not be surprised to see sales spike just to park cash in the US.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Have a read of the Aussies Kiwis Canadians piece from the Financial Post which is the top link under global macro.

        For the most part it is about on the money. Those economies can have houses or holes – a key part of then houses side of the equation is the access to foreign buyers – which brings about the issue of laundering funds in real estate (as it is in all three). The US is bigger than that, but because the housing bubble issue has never been as pronounced in the US as it has been in the three colonies sending money to the US is plausibly a safer laundry for ones ill gotten cash than any of the others. It isnt just a Chinese thing – the Russians, the Central Asians, every last tin pot dictator from Africa, and drug lords from central Americas, and every other Olympic or FIFA official has been at it for far longer, . The Americans have better ability to impose an effective funds vetting (real owners) identification arrangement without crippling their financial system. As you rightly note, they will not be unaware of the implications of the Fed raising rates for the USD and the implications this has on the desirability of having USD denominated assets – while being aware the enthusiasm for USD will create a millstone for the US competitive position (in a world going post jobs?)

      • Not sure about your Chinese comment. There are a lot of Chinese buyers in the US markets. The issue with Chinese buyers seems to be education. For the most part they do not understand macro economics nor global money movements. When you have an opportunity to explain this to them, their opinions on Australia, NZ and Canada immediately change. Most think the USD will strengthen against the CNY and don’t get the tight links between commodity currencies and the Chinese economy. Still I think a lot depends on political stability in the US and the current circus is not helping. At the same time, I would not hold out for the salvation of our apartment issues coming from China. Heard even more stories this week from a visiting Chinese developer on the challenges of getting funds out of China to Australia to pay for apartments and school fees. His local company sold off-the-plan in Burwood and has been forced to drop prices now as many initial buyers who paid $5000 deposits are not committing to the full 10% deposit on schedule. Not a big development, but still a change to the norm. Should be ok in the short-term as most Aussies will think it a bargain and pick them up 🙂

      • @skip – it is all fun and games while the music plays, just don’t be the last one holding the asset when the music stops and the liquidity of the market is shown in the bright light of day.

      • OJ….

        What happens when rational actors seeking yield all have a bad trip like the herd animals they are… now this would be hilarious if it were not for the broader ramifications….

        Disheveled Marsupial…. but yeah tax is theft…

      • Don’t get me wrong John, I respect you and not making an individual case of the matter, its not about us…. eh… enjoy the perks.

        What I will say in all earnestness is too much money in too few hands is problematic, to the point that it distorts national and international affairs, it becomes a bizarre sand box were individual preferences [political or ideological] have a gravity well far exceeding the wealth effect and reality e.g. wealth in of its self is not truth nor is it science.

        Disheveled Marsupial… its not like we can not see the same agency playing out in ancient Egypt FFS….

    • interested party

      Pfh007,
      You would do well to get a hold of the Permaculture Designers Manual. Particularly….. Chapter 14. Strategies for an Alternative Nation. It takes a similar line of reasoning that you present (very well I will add), however, it puts the thoughts within a global ethics based system that helps all and hinders none…. all while bolted to but inseparable from the permaculture design system/science. You will find that the path you are venturing down has footprints left from some very wise and considerate thinkers… one of whom just passed away a week ago. His name is Bill Mollison.

      You have done well. Now expand the principles and wrap them in an all-encompassing process that includes food, shelter, health, community, and is beneficial to the human habitat and ecosystem. Permaculture is where you arrive at….. some think it’s just a gardening technique….LOL.

      • Try telling 25M people to permaculture… like you do in a country with only 22ish million… and a land mass to which is almost par….

      • IP,

        Thanks for that and I agree about the connections you are drawing. Permaculture and many other movements that have at core the notion of sustainablility and how we acheive that as communities and nations have a natural interest in the problem of the ‘growth’ bug at the core of current economics.

        I take the view that almost everything has been thought of before and we are all standing on the shoulders of many so I am never surprised if something I write has been written before and am always interested in the connections in how different people describe the world.

        I guess my objective is to not win some prize for ‘originality’ as I think that is a very overated concept related to the western cult of private property but rather try to keep presenting, what I am certain has been said before by someone, in a way that ‘cuts through’ and thereby helps more people see what is largely right before us.

        Or to put it another way – I think the lock on understanding can be opened for anyone who is interested but different keys work for different people. I am just trying as many keys as I can lay my hands on.

        Thanks for a few more!

      • IP….

        Not arguing nor should you personalize it. The Vietnam case is an apple and oranges comparison, I used Singapore for a reason e.g. cookie cutter solutions won’t work in every application i.e. permaculture has its place in a mix of policy responses where it is applicable, but, it is not a cure all or applicable in all cases.

        The Vietnam case is about returning to a more traditional state of farming in areas where it previously existed – for sometime, this does not work in Singapore.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. totally understand the need to move away from corporate mono-culture Ag [green revolution], the island of Hispaniola is a good indicator between Haiti and Dominican Republic imo….

      • interested party

        All good, Pf
        I agree with the lock and key analogy and would add that often one needs to get through the first door to recognise the following keys and locks… until that happens, they are meaningless and therefore just noise…..
        I often only ‘get’ what I need to get on a second, third, or even forth read of a book. ( I never claimed any level of intelligence ) I need the platform of info to leverage off to understand the following information.

        https://youtu.be/nMaS0XDwgxs stick with it…Bill wanders off on occasion…
        here is a sample of what the manual goes into regarding what I mentioned above….. (((annndd if you notice the clips alongside this one and follow the breadcrumbs……. start at the start kinda thing, then you have a large part of the preceding doors and locks you relate to… but on permaculture design.)))

        Context is critical….

        David Holmgrens recent works might inspire you.

        Skippy,
        How do you attach “cookie cutter solutions” to permaculture? Enlighten me…….

        My understanding ( gleaned from study, practise, and living with it ) of permaculture must be a different type than what you speak of.
        The permaculture I know treats each and every situation as unique, requiring it’s own set of methods and applications that suit the topography, climate, plants, animal, rainfall, soil type…… and the people.

        The few things that can be described as ‘cookie cutter’ are the constants….. day/night, water moving down-slope at 90 degrees to contour, patterns of succession in soil and plants…. those types of things.

        Where you state that it won’t work in Singapore is a worry. The only thing stopping permaculture from working en-mass ANYWHERE on the planet is the capitalist thoughts and behaviours that drive the engines of profit. These same engines drive policy and politics. It is why we face the mess we face.
        Look at Cuba….. once the economy ( the profit engine) collapsed in the early 90’s, what did people do? They took up a remarkably similar lifestyle to permaculture… so it can (and will) be done.

        The design science works anywhere you apply it once you understand the process and how to apply it to any given situation. When those engines of profit eventually sit silent, you will see a massive take-up of permaculture… even in Singapore, hell…… even in Melb/Syd. Those engines are stalling from lack of fuel as we speak. (This act may be our saving in all reality I suspect.)

        Humanity is approaching a watershed moment and as far as I am concerned/aware Permaculture is the only complete holistic methodology that delivers solutions to the problems we face.

        So… my response to your drive-by interjection stands as stated. Until you can deliver a holistic methodology that encompasses all that permaculture does… better and more effectively, then best you hold back your opinions. Solutions are required, not opinions. And say what you will to Pfh007, for mine he is at least looking for solutions and not just looking at the mess and bleating ( not suggesting you are bleating… as many do here at MB )… so he has my full support.

        https://permacultureglobal.org/projects

        PS… don’t take this personally. Time is running out… you would surely agree…
        “Try telling 25M people to permaculture”……. starvation is a wonderful incentive…..

      • interested party

        Haha… nope!
        Think what you want, skip.
        The original comment was directed to someone else so your input is secondary.

      • “Where you state that it won’t work in Singapore is a worry. The only thing stopping permaculture from working en-mass ANYWHERE on the planet is the capitalist thoughts and behaviours that drive the engines of profit.”

        I have no problems with permaculture in of its self, tho when people start ideologicalizing it that’s another story.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. and yes… then it becomes a one size fits all cookie cutter template….

      • interested party

        My pleasure Pfh007. I hope you get something out of it.

        Skip, I have no desire to engage in verbal pollution so I will try to keep this brief.

        How we arrived at this economic quagmire is of little interest to me in the big picture. Who the players were/are is also not that relevant to me. Some understanding is useful and I can say that you have been most helpful regarding that.
        However, I choose not to blame any cohort or country for the situation we now face…. but I do acknowledge the seriousness of the predicament. Where I made mention of the “capitalist thoughts and behaviours” , I will try to clarify for accuracy’s sake and to hopefully remove any point of contention you may have with the terminologies use.

        The western societies have enjoyed a rising standard of living for quiet a while. The economic/political model that this occurred under I have termed “capitalist” using a broad-brush and it is in this context that I use the term. I place no other value upon the term other than that. No ideology, no religion, no suspicion…. no blame. It is what it is, and it will end in time. A lower standard of living is what some perceive to be the ideal regarding permaculture…. ergo…..a hesitancy to take it up. This is not so, as we lean heavily on the sciences and appropriate technologies…. but with far more time on our hands if we so choose.

        Regarding Permaculture, If you are alluding that I approach it through ideology, then that’s your prerogative. I would like to think that I approach it ( as does any trained practitioner ) through a fact based methodology…. basing choices through action, observation and results. I don’t need to “believe” in permaculture as much as I don’t “believe” in capitalism, religion, or any ism you care to pick. It is based in observational truth… and that makes it very difficult to contain. I don’t “believe” compost grows healthy plants through biological interactions…… I inspect each batch I make under a microscope to get information of bacterial/fungal numbers and such. There is no “ideology” in this work…. just… fact…based….truth.!!!!!

        The link with the global projects…… all based on observational fact!…all successful in their stated goals!, all community driven! Not an ISM in sight!

        If this is the angle you are coming from, then all you are showing is your ignorance on the subject and you should cease and desist from commenting until you become better versed in the subject…. in fact, I dare say it that you would not be saying half the things you say if you were trained in its application.

        If this is not the angle, then please disregard the preceding… and my genuine apologies for any offence I may have caused you. As I have stated previously, this thread was directed at others and now look……. here we are … in the bloody weeds. Bloody singapore… good grief. Beer o’clock… and time to feed the fish.
        Keep well Skip. I am harmless.

        I think I failed in the keep it brief bit.

      • DarkMatterMEMBER

        IP – I have a copy of that book which was printed in 1992. Is that still current, or has it been changed at all?

      • interested party

        Darkmatter..
        No change. What that book details is the design course pretty much in it’s entirety…… just fleshed out with personal anecdotes and experiences by the teacher in question …. and how to utilise/apply new technologies where applicable, such as solar power and battery storage, pumps, things like refractometers, laser levels, microscopes, aeration units for compost teas, and the internet ( thats a big help)…. and aquaculture…… big steps being made here.
        If you look at the clips/links I shared with Phf007, you can follow along with the manual and get a quite reasonable grasp on the application of permaculture. Nothing will replace a seat in a class in person yet, although things are changing rapidly here and exceptional courses are planned for online delivery as we speak.

        Hope that helps. Long short version of no change that I am aware of.

        edit to add…
        Site planning/system design is leaping forward through digital design software also. Contour maps, sun angles, climatic records… all this is made easier through technology.

      • “Skip, I have no desire to engage in verbal pollution so I will try to keep this brief.”

        OK you say you have no interest in the past, you clearly make ideological statements about all of humanity’s problems are the result of Capitalism and that permaculture is the solution to those problems, then go on a frolicking diatribe about stuff….

        I only pointed out that permaculture is a good policy where it fits and is not a one size all solution – too all of our problems – and then you had a dummy spat because I challenged that one size fits all notion.

        Then you went off the deep end with the Capitalists thingy [ I never once bought ideology into until you cracked a fat ].

        Disheveled Marsupial… this is the same problem I have with Druids like Greer and his Burkean views bleeding over into other topics, not that Hayek and Burke are basically one in the same, but yeah your not interested in stuff outside pushing the permaculture bus….. right…

      • interested party

        Skip, what is becoming noticeable is you don’t do criticism well… even when well intentioned.

        Disheveled Marsupial… “”””this is the same problem I have”””” ……. and there we have it in a nutshell. Dude…. yes, it is YOUR problem. I don’t exist to fix ‘your’ problem. That’s for you to sort out. I have clearly stated my case above and any clarification required should be cleared up upon re-reading it. The original post was to offer relevant content to another party…job done.

        You need to find something else to fill your days… goading folks to engage in mud fights is hardly useful or beneficial to anyone.

      • IP…

        Go back and re read the thread…. I think you will find the vitriol was not from my comments and only started when your sacred cow was threatened. Not once did I say permaculture was a bad thing, just that in of its self – it – was not a solution or applicable in – all – cases. Then you deployed the Capitalist did it meme, contrary to many other ridged ideological sociopolitical systems destruction of the environment and their populations – in the last 100 years alone.

        Disheveled Marsupial…. noone said permaculture = bad… Mmm’k… just that its not the second coming and beliefs that don’t respond well to critiques… wellie just look at AET and neoclassical over the last 60ish years… who banned Marx et al again – ????? – now we have to go back and relearn everything… all over again… duh…

      • interested party

        Skip, I do get where you are coming from and if I could change something, it would be my generalisation of the term ‘capitalist thoughts and behaviours’ into something more benign for you. My bad on that count. I did clarify but not well enough it appears. As to not being interested in prior events and histories…I am but I just don’t have the time to go into it at the granular level you have.

        As to needing to defend permaculture, it can stand on it’s own and doesn’t need my input for justification or support.

        Tell me where it is not applicable so I can chew that over… I might learn something. I reckon you’re wrong at first take though. Happy to investigate .

        No vitriol implied or intended at any stage…… not my style. You should know that.

  10. St JacquesMEMBER

    Yeah Charles Slow Mo Ponzi, the only way to keep a Ponzi Economy going is to endlessly ramp it up. That’s precisely why it’s an illegal scam in the stockmarket and why at some point such an economy will either collapse or will end in revolution as the losers outnumber the winners – whichever comes first, boofhead.

    • No, they are not behind – they just hold their cards tightly to their chests.

      They will only break bad news or predictions after they have made sure that they cannot possibly be blamed for the cause of the said bad predictions.

      • holding that theory true – when MB starts predicting global war, we have 12 months to get the shit out of town>?

      • This is my view of MB vs other commentators as well.
        MB is the drunk at the dinner party making everyone feel awkward as it says what the others know one should not say in polite company.
        Now, if Mrs. MB was like Lady footsore then MB would have been taken home and put to bed quite a while ago.

  11. Fucking EUR. Somehow defied the gravity and made an impressive comeback.

    The falling triangle is nearly complete in a weekly chart of USD/JPY. It will break big in one way or another.

  12. Mig
    That bot thingy you have come up with which writes posts, that is a ripper.
    This AI thingy is amazing.
    Think of the military application of that. you could have troops going every which way.

    • I made a boo-boo somewhere, sometimes BottyMcBotface goes all glibertarian on yours truly – Dr Frankenbotstein ??

      • “Why should I care”…. exactly…. IBGYBG…..

        Disheveled Marsupial…. see with your ethos you enable the rentiers or malefactors… its all just Social Darwinism… you just seem deluded to your social status and long term importance to you betters aka a useful idiot…

      • “its all just Social Darwinism…”

        Bwaahaahaahaa! As opposed to evolutionary Darwinism? Tell the not-so-little beaurocracy that couldn’t

      • Balfour does exist as a political agenda and some would argue that it is built upon a false preconception of DNA…. Lamarckism… something the Soviets found out the hard way when people starved,

        Disheveled Marsupial… doesn’t exist…. how bizarre….

      • Yes Skippy Balfour – aka Sykes-Picot lite

        And some wonder why Simon *cough *shimon *cough* Perez was no angel of peace

      • But… but…. mig what happened for your man love for the Chicago school and Objectivist Ethics…. et al…

        Dishevled Marsupial…. Dawg would be angry….

  13. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Sitting here watching SBS news …………now is it just me …or does it not look like time we let the fading Le Lin Chin go and replaced her with an Australian girl in a hijab ?……….we are a multicultural place after all ……..so SBS management ……what say you ?

  14. Woooohooooo!!! 200 comments and counting before Saturday is out. Well on pace for 400 comments in total.

    Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes.

      • Ah, perhaps we will make it to 400 then.

        BTW, you have changed over the years, footsore. In a good way I think.

      • hey footsore i’m having a little break because it’s all getting a little nasty in tone. these threads are no longer good-natured banter, they are now vindictive point scoring or abuse. I’ll keep checking in occasionally but something has gone bad in MB. I must say I always enjoy your music posts even if I don’t agree with them.

      • I’m with you there haroldus.
        Right now I think I spend time here out of habit.
        The posts and links are good but the comments section is not as civil as it once was.
        I might have to head out into the real world and try to better myself as a person.
        Or, I could get a pair of VR googles.
        I tried them for the first time last night.
        You could live in a dogbox and think you reside in a Japanese palace.

        Musically, here’s something interesting I found during the week.
        The evolution of a riff.
        The Damned https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaDbMZlN2Pg
        Killing Joke https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1U1Ue_5kq8
        Nirvana https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vabnZ9-ex7o

        The topic and attitude of the Killing Joke track got me thinking about Max Q and their ‘Way of the World’ song. That got me thinking about how the punk / disenchantment vibe of the 80s should be popping up with things going to shit for the kiddies. I don’t go to many gigs these days so I’m not sure if it is. Surely it must be. Ought and The Savages are two international bands that definitely have it in their music.

        Max Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu-2F09vAsA
        Ought https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoRfMNb5pn0
        Savages https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddQA0BeP4pU

    • Interesting idea, and good find, Counterfiat.

      I guess it will “work” in normal circumstances. But when your population is falling like in Japan…..

    • Ex-Deutsche Bank Executives Among 13 Charged in Paschi Probe

      Judge schedules trial to begin in Milan on December 15
      Six current and former managers of Deutsche Bank AG — including ex-asset and wealth management head Michele Faissola — along with former executives at Nomura Holdings Inc. and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA were charged in Milan for colluding to falsify the accounts of Italy’s third-biggest bank and manipulate the market.
      A judge in Milan approved a request by prosecutors to try 13 bankers on charges over separate derivative transactions Paschi arranged with the securities firms, said a lawyer involved in the case, who attended the closed-door hearing Saturday, where the decision was announced.”

      Sorry NG wrong spot

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-01/deutsche-bank-paschi-nomura-staff-charged-over-false-accounts-itr5z2ku

  15. OK! Who’s for Jumping the Ditch for a better life in the Rockstar economy in Kiwiland? If you decide to, keep in mind you’ll be up against record high net migration and may have to settle for an even lower paypacket just to get into the market. And as for paying $1,000,000+ for a median house to live in to go with your median income in Auckland (which is the national highest at probably double the national median)? Good luck with that….

    In 2016, the median income earner….. takes home NZ$46,779. This data is for a median person. Remember, half the employees in this huge sample will have done better, half will have done worse. And after your late 30s, pay rises start slowing; your skills are close to their maximum and your desire and ability to change jobs decreases. But sometimes mobility is forced on you, and that may actually mean you go backwards somewhat in the pay stakes, especially if your skills are no longer as up-to-date as what employers want or need.

    In addition, you may seek fewer working hours as you age; at least, you are not as keen on overtime. In some cases you may switch jobs from one with a heavy manual basis to one less physically demanding. These are common changes. And your income may reflect these changes.

    http://www.interest.co.nz/news/83862/david-chaston-reviews-actual-pay-experience-employee-median-income-tracking-cycles-change

  16. Everything you are going to want to know about the coulombic efficiency of lithium-ion batteries before you go off grid and why Tesla are making the better choices.

    https://batterybro.com/blogs/18650-wholesale-battery-reviews/103090502-why-do-lithium-ion-batteries-die-long

    What is already possible if we could just lift our concentration from the real estate pages in the paper.

    http://insideevs.com/worlds-largest-electric-ferries-to-be-equipped-with-pbesxalt-energys-4-16-mwh-battery-packs/

    • There is a book around “the Alchemy of Air”. the story of the development of the catalysts for the HAber process> excellent read. I think it is available as a PDF The development of those catalysts is similar to the development for the batteries. Another Strayan mob, Hazer, HZR similar story for the high pressure liberation of hydrogen.
      But you are right we are a long way behind. We cant even catch a few frigging sharks.
      Now, someone in WA recons they have a catalyst which is even better ??.

    • Gunna, thought you’d have a go at guessing who Fitzgerald is referring to – who has form as a leaker and wants to be PM?

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        To be honest that involves entering the murky world of Torynuff internal politics – and right at the moment my head is dustier than would be appropriate for contemplating that.

        There are a lot of nutters in the mix, but I would have thought all roads would lead back to that complete psychopath, Testostertone, I dont doubt that he has the requisite sense of ‘destiny’ to deploy the torynuff peons to that effect if he gets the chance, and I think PMT’s pant dropping displays of spinelessness facilitate a general mood of ‘now the election is out of the way we can get back to the till on our terms’ from the gibber set baying at the moon over there in Torynuff land.

      • Xo the forces are aligning to stick it to your mates in the coal industry over the deliberate mis information spread about the SA tower collapses. Looking forward to seeing heads roll, ie MT JF. for a start.

      • In your dreams WW.

        SA has multiple problems which have been exposed by this storm, particularly inherent instability of wind power – wind back RET, Playford II and a little gas plant will do.

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/01/south-australias-blackout-apparently-triggered-by-the-violent-fluctuations-from-the-snowtown-wind-farms/

        Btw WW, witness the cynicism of Rudd and Labor

        “What for instance, did Rudd truly think on the topic of climate change, which he described in public as the “great moral, economic and social challenge of our time”. Mitchell has him at a lunch party in Sydney’s Palm Beach early in his first term as Prime Minister laughing at the green pretensions of many in Labor and the commonwealth bureaucracy – quite a disclosure!”

        It’s politics mate.

      • wattsupwiththat.com

        Welle that disqualifies you XO….

        Willard Anthony Watts is a former radio and TV weatherman and notable global warming denier. He claims to have subscribed to AGW years ago before he saw the light and became a denier. He also claims that he is (otherwise) an environmentalist. This makes him something of an AGW concern troll.

        He is the proprietor of the Jerry Seinfeldian Watts Up With That (geddit?) blog, usually shortened to WUWT or, as it is sometimes affectionately nicknamed, LOLWUWT or WTFUWT. In the wake of Steve McIntyre of Climate (Fr)audit fame co-winning the 2007 Best Science Blog prize, the contest yet again made a mockery of itself by giving Watts the same award in 2008. He also started Surface Stations, an apparently moribund database of pictures and data on weather stations.

        Although Watts has made appearances on both Glenn Beck[1] and Sean Hannity’s[2] shows, he is among the less nutty of the prominent deniers. Mostly he just repeats the same tired old denier talking points, or pulls out some random data and says, “Look, it’s cold somewhere!”

        Disheveled Marsupial…. add Monckton’s antics and you have proof that some people are just oblivious to everything around them….

      • IPA…. gesh….

        https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/05/31/abbotts-faceless-men-the-ipa/1401458400

        Disheveled Marsupial…. the corporate world is starting to abandon your loon pond posse XO…. stop loss works like that…. when the waters fully recede you will all be remember for what you truly are…. despicable cretins without any regard for others…

        PS. that book is rubbish and buying your own product to boost sales is not to be confused with vindication of its propaganda. Same deal with the propaganda Friedman wrote for the developer lobbyists.

    • “you read it here first” bullshit. how about this from the Sage Wolf.
      Wiley Wolf September 30, 2016 at 10:44 am
      Tony Abbott is back in the picture: The knives are out for Turnballe
      Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has slammed Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull for promulgating “ignorant rubbish” in the South Australian energy debate, as Labor states and territories rejected the PM’s pitch for a standardised renewable energy target.
      WW Turnball may not yet make Xmas

    • The art this week reminded me of Pyotr Pavlensky’s Carcass. An interesting, ballsy Russian artist.

  17. This’ll send the roaches scurrying and about time too;

    “Auditor finds questionable payments, poorly justifed land purchases”

    Auditor-General Maxine Cooper has highlighted questionable payments to a consulting firm, poorly justified land purchases and a “manipulated” document released under Freedom of Information, in a damning report into the activities of the ACT’s Land Development Agency. The agency’s purchases of land in Glebe Park and two lakeside businesses lacked transparency, accountability and rigour, and their integrity and probity could not be demonstrated, she said.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-election-2016/auditor-launches-wider-investigation-into-land-development-agency-after-damning-findings-20160930-grs9zr.html

  18. DarkMatterMEMBER

    I think Flat Pack houses was mentioned last week, but news.com.au is pushing it again this weekend.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/flatpack-ikea-for-houses-to-combat-australias-housing-affordability-crisis/news-story/6292b8109463b42e8719218c154415ac

    I suppose it is too much to expect that the media could apply some critical thinking to this. Tiny flat pack houses – innovation solving runaway house prices due to dysfunctional financial and banking models.

    The Banks/FIRE sector are now so thoroughly in control of our society that even innovation and design has become all about them. Everything we do now revolves around the financial model. Banks have become our God.

    And thou shall have no other god before me.

    • Does seem to be a tone of resignation to the inevitable in this.

      At least these things should move faster than transmission towers.

    • There’s so much wrong with that you wouldn’t really know where to start picking it apart.

      But then that’s all part of the strategy, just like ScoMo the other day – keep repeating the bullshit over and over again to rally the supporters, confuse the uninformed, brainwash the feeble minded, and bury the naysayers and critical thinkers in quicksand.

      Of course they couldn’t succeed as often as they do without the complicity of the MSM (Yes. I’m looking at you Ms Irvine).

  19. “Disheveled Marsupial…. the only thing I would add is the ideological drag by vested interests due to reduced influence in the social narrative… akin to prying gold away from those so unforgettably conditioned….”

    How is this even a sentence?

    • Ideological drag is the dominate economics of 70s onward, vested interests are those that funded the MPS agenda, which was to increase the influence of its members in concocting the social narrative aka mythology. The gold analogy speaks for its self e.g. getting people to believe an object can store anything – especially subjective value or price by some divine act.

      Disheveled Marsupial…. I know how you feel tho Escobar…. I get it when I read AET et al prose….