Weekend links 1 – 2 October 2016

Wire, Noel Counihan, 1966, National Gallery of Victoria

China

• Booming Property Market Undercuts Attempts to Revitalize Industry – Caixin…could anyone in Australia get this idea?…
• China’s Most Misleading Indicator – Bloomberg
• China may be stockpiling more oil than anyone realized – Washington Post
• As China ages, will its economy shrink? – SCMP
• ‘Hard landing’ fears over … but just when will China’s property bubble burst? – SCMP
• ‘This is just the start’: China’s passion for foreign property – Guardian…worth reading…
• Keynes and Hayek in China’s Property Markets – Project-Syndicate
• Why a banking crisis in China seems unavoidable – VoxEU
• Spent-Fuel Issues Cloud China’s Nuclear Push – Caixin
• Commentary in China’s mouthpiece media seeks to calm property speculation, draws online derision instead – SCMP
• SDR Entry Marks Beginning, Not End, of China’s Arrival on World Financial Platform – Caixin
• China’s Renminbi Is about to Break the Financial Glass Ceiling – Peterson Institute
• CHINA’S REAL REASON FOR GETTING THE YUAN INTO THE IMF’S (OTHERWISE POINTLESS) CURRENCY BASKET – SCMP

Asia

• India-Pakistan Conflict Update: Border Villages Evacuated By India As Tensions Escalate – IB Times….keep an eye on this…
• Asian companies set to return to growth in the next decade? – ValueWalk
• Japan inflation, consumption fall again, keeping BOJ under pressure – CNBC
• Saudi Arabia’s Shock Therapy – Project-Syndicate
• Japan’s Impending Monetary Exhaustion – Economonitor
• BOJ prepares for long-term fight to achieve 2% inflation goal – Nikkei Asian Review
• Financial woes drive Riyadh’s change of heart on OPEC cut – Nikkei Asian Review
• WHAT A MINISTER’S RELUCTANCE TO BE PM REVEALS ABOUT RACE IN SINGAPORE – SCMP
• In much of Asian industry, the state still reigns supreme – Nikkei Asian Review
• Indonesian authorities are threatening to hit Google with a $400 million tax bill – Quartz
• China outlook clouds emerging Asia’s recovery – Nikkei Asian Review

Europe

• Inside Italy’s circle of NPL hell – Euromoney
• Bank capital: Italy worries mask wider malaise in Europe – Euromoney
• Angela Merkel has bungled the Deutsche Bank crisis, like everything else – Market Watch
• Russia’s first 4 years in WTO has been a litany of disputes. What next? – BNE Intellinews
• Unveiling the KGB school of economic management – BNE Intellinews
• Commerzbank plans to cut 9,600 jobs – BBC
• Russian Economy Takes Hit From Putin’s Grip – Bloomberg, Bershidsky
• What Deutsche Bank Is Telling Investors in Europe – Bloomberg, El-Erian
• Stop Brexit and save the EU – Guardian, Kaletsky
• Will The ECB Buy Stocks? – Zero Hedge
• Apple, Brussels, and Ireland’s Bruised Sovereignty – Project-Syndicate
• Deutsche Bank bailout would be political suicide for Merkel, analysts warn – CNBC
• Deutsche Bank: From bombs and bravado to risks of a bailout – BBC
• Euro zone inflation rises to 0.4% in September – RTE
• IMF queries lawyers and bankers on hundreds of IFSC boards – Irish Times
• Deutsche Bank crisis threatens meltdown beyond German borders – Irish Times
• Deutsche Bank shares tank as concern grows over stability – AP
• Growth in peril as east Europeans “sweat blood” to find workers – Reuters

United Kingdom

• London mayor launches unprecedented inquiry into foreign property ownership – Guardian
• Reality Check: Does the UK sell boomerangs to Australia? – BBC…50 thousand a year?…
• Born in early 80s? Then you’re half as wealthy as 1970s’ children, says IFS – Guardian
• Globalisation, adjustment and Whitehall’s game of pass-the-parcel – Prospect
• There’s more to the City than “passporting” – Prospect, Magnus
• A plan to save London from Brexit: special London-only work permits for Europeans – Quartz
• U.K. House-Price Growth Cools Amid ‘Subdued’ New Buyer Demand – Bloomberg

 United States

• America’s Monopoly Problem – Atlantic
• Elizabeth Warren Says Barack Obama Must Veto Budget If It Includes Anti-Transparency ‘Dark Money’ Provision – IB Times
• Beating America’s Health-Care Monopolists – Project-Syndicate
• Americans Actually Don’t Hate Trade – Bloomberg
• The New Face of Immigration Is Changing the Housing Market – Bloomberg
• Wells Fargo’s Reaction to Scandal Fails to Satisfy Angry Lawmakers – NY Times
• 71 percent of Americans aren’t saving enough for retirement – Washington Post
• The decline of the middle class is causing even more economic damage than we realized – Washington Post, Summers
• Consumers Are Feeling Better About The Economy Than Polls Suggest – FiveThirtyEight
• ‘Housing party’ in the U.S. may be coming to an end – Market Watch
• The Real Reason So Many Americans Oppose Immigration – Bloomberg
• Assessing Trade Agendas in the US Presidential Campaign – Peterson Institute
• Are teacher pensions really that high? Pension puzzles part I – Brookings
• How Democrats Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Big Donor Money – NY Times
• In Wells Fargo Case, News Really Did Happen To An Editor – ProPublica
• Vegas casino’s attempt to collect a debt exposes world of Chinese high-rollers – Reuters

Americas

• Vancouver tops list of ‘bubble’ cities on global real estate risk ranking – Financial Post
• Oilpatch to proceed with caution despite OPEC production deal, not expecting ‘sea change in prices’ – Financial Post
• Trudeau set to tap Canada’s budget reserves amid dismal growth – Financial Post
• Panama Papers dents new Panama incorporations, seen down 20% – Business Times
• Vancouver proposes licensed short-term Airbnb stays to increase rental supply – Vancouver Sun
• Foreign-buyers tax too little, too late, Vancouver mayor says – Globe and Mail

Terra Incognita

• Scott Morrison’s blunt warning: embrace immigration and trade, or face ‘great danger’ – Fairfax…the ransom note reads ‘nobody touches immigration or trade or the poor and indebted get it’…
• Scott Morrison warns resentment to free trade and immigration threatens economy – Guardian….but it is an unquestionable good for everyone isn’t it?…
• Sydney, Melbourne housing markets cooling off? Not so fast – Fairfax, Pascoemeter
• Commonwealth Bank reverses its term deposit rate increases in another sting for savers – Fairfax
• Australia should compare CEO and average worker pay as the US and UK do – Guardian
• More money, worse results? The truth behind the great schools debate – Fairfax, Irvine
• Millions in taxpayer dollars spent on training staff at McDonalds and other corporations – Fairfax…for fuck’s sake…
• Are international students shutting locals out of state schools? – Fairfax
• Final budget outcome for 2015-16 shows $340m improvement in bottom line – Guardian
• University graduates struggle to find full-time work as enrolments increase, study finds – ABC…for some of the most expensive university courses in the world…
• ‘Please delete this email’: Queensland RSL president mobilises after financial audit – Fairfax…the RSL has a lot of questions to answer…
• A lack of leadership is to blame for Australia’s malaise – not the people – Fairfax…Australia’s leadership is pathetic…
• Australia slipping behind on internet speed – NZ Herald
• Tax audits of large companies plummet – NZ Herald
• NZ’s vanishing bank branches – NZ Herald
• First appearance by Australia’s new central bank governor disappointing – Bill Mitchell
• New LVR rules expected to slow housing debt, which is growing at its fastest pace in more than eight years – Interest.co.nz
• Dumb politics means we may be stuck with an even dumber grid – Pearls & Irritations
• Urban rail projects: property developers should be servants not masters – Pearls & Irritations
• China’s deepening engagement in Australian society: is it a concern? – Pearls & Irritations, Stephen FitzGerald
• Power Games: The Real Reason South Australia Blacked Out – New Matilda
• PwC gives bludgers a lesson in corporate welfare – Michael West
• Ford shutdown: Auto manufacturing workers fear for their futures – Fairfax
• Looking at Australian listed real estate through a global lens – Fairfax

Commodities

• Is the oil world big enough for two swing producers? – Washington Post
• The end of meat? Economics, the environment and changing tastes have top protein feeling the heat – Financial Post
• Opec agreeing on need to cut oil production is no game-changer … yet – Guardian
• USDA requires meat packers to report online cattle auction deals – Reuters
• Relief arrives for U.S. shale firms as OPEC folds in price battle – Reuters
• $1 Aussie coal mines turn to jackpots as China’s cuts power price rally – Fairfax
• Iron giants to add 200 million tons of supplies through 2020 – Mineweb
• Bullish at the top: How long can the sugar rush last? – Platts
• OPEC racked with division, but too soon to write it off? – Platts
• Cocoa turns to coffee sector for answers to demand questions – Agrimoney
• US energy envoy: OPEC production deal will not work – SCMP
• China set to export corn, posing new threat to battered global market – sources – Reuters

 Capital markets

• Explainer: The Deutsche Bank mess, and how it all started – Fairfax
• Deutsche Bank under pressure as hedge funds cut exposure – Telegraph
• Deutsche Bank: five options as it faces the prospect of $14bn fine – Guardian
• Why is Deutsche Bank now the biggest worry in the financial world? – Telegraph
• Deutsche Bank crisis threatens to roil global markets – Market Watch
• Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation? – Bruegel
• Banking: Libor – the wrong kind of rate rise – Euromoney
• Sizing Up Broad Active Commodity ETFs – ETF.com
• The Logic Behind Chasing Yield – ETF.com
• The Great Hedge Fund Reversal: When The Worst Became The Best – ValueWalk
• This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next – Zero Hedge
• Using ETFs To Hedge Against Rising Rates – ETF.com

 Global Macro

• Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis trapped in ‘commodity bust, housing boom’ cycle and the unwinding is going to be painful – Financial Post
• Managing the Economic Consequences of Nationalism – Project-Syndicate El-Erian…acknowledging the economic consequences of globalism would be a good place to start…
• The Perils of Debt Complacency – Project-Syndicate
• Peak Finance Looks Like It’s Over – Bloomberg
• Cartels: Capitalism’s Clubby Side, From Adam Smith to Libor – Bloomberg…more successful in Australia than rabbits, foxes, carp, or cane toads…
• The real reason for OPEC’s shocker oil deal … and why it probably won’t work – Financial Post
• US Fed sanctions one of China’s biggest banks over “significant deficiencies” in money laundering – SCMP
• More Wealth, More Jobs, but Not for Everyone: What Fuels the Backlash on Trade – NY Times
• Alcoa board approves split, expected effective November 1 – Reuters
• Desperate Central Bankers – Project-Syndicate
• Anti-globalists: Why they’re wrong – Economist
• Lawmakers to Wells Fargo CEO: ‘Why shouldn’t you be in jail?’ – Washington Post…more lawmakers need to ask the same of more bankers around the world…
• Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman Brothers? The denials certainly don’t help suggest it’s not – Telegraph
• The Competitiveness Competition – RTE
• The first Clinton – Trump debate, the limits of the elite consensus and white privilege – Flassbeck Economics

 …and furthermore…

• Stupefied: How organisations enshrine collective stupidity and employees are rewarded for checking their brains at the office door – Aeon…classic read – and all too true…
• Why Do Famous People Get Paid $250,000 to Give a Speech? – Priceonomics
• Coding is not ‘fun’, it’s technically and ethically complex – Aeon
• Why the Father of Modern Statistics Didn’t Believe Smoking Caused Cancer – Priceonomics
• The Global Cost of Electronic Waste – Atlantic
• The Algorithms That Tell Bosses How Employees Are Feeling – Atlantic
• Do Driverless Cars Favor Urban or Suburban Life? – Slate
• Markets and School Quality – Project-Syndicate
• Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise? – Project-Syndicate
• The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence – Economonitor
• Economics Has a Major Blind Spot – Bloomberg
• Affordable Housing Is Easy. In Theory. – Bloomberg
• The Dangerous Cult of Academic Macroeconomics – Bloomberg
• Why collective illusion may beat collective ignorance – SCMP
• Democracy does not cause growth – VoxEU
• Bank boards and professional misconduct: New metrics needed – VoxEU
• The industrial internet will transform policymaking – Bruegel
• THE RETURN OF THE UTOPIANS: What today’s movements for social and economic reform can learn from the intentional communities of the nineteenth century – New Yorker
• Politics has become an arms race of outrageousness and the narcissists are winning – Fairfax…we place psychopaths at the top of nations, global organisations, & companies, and wonder why they bullshit us…
• Fed, BOJ add shine to alternative investment strategy – Globe and Mail…except in South Australia?…
• Man’s Best Friend May Be the Flu’s Worst Enemy – Bloomberg…good read with an Australian angle…