Markets pecked by Black Swan gauntlet

It’s risk off again. The US dollar eased:

Largely on a strong JPY:

Commodity currencies were mixed:

Gold was firm:

Oil too:

Not so base metals:

Miners fell:

US and EM high yield was weak despite oil:

US bond were bid:

The Japanese bond curve flattened, the opposite of BoJ intentions:

The S&P500 was hit:

It’s not one thing, its everything:

• markets continue to ignore the the Bank of Japan’s objectives and buy yen. I still think NIRP is being underestimated but that’s not how markets are playing it;
• the US election is weighing on everything as it proves closer than many expected. Tonight is the first debate, and
• Deutsche Bank is sinking in Europe underlining the precariousness of Eurozone politics given Germany is now caught between its role as financial disciplinarian and a banking crisis at home.

As I said last week, if you want to play the Black Swan gauntlet of the next few quarters – including the Fed, BoJ, ECB, EZ elections, US election and weak oil – then gold is your option.