The Yellen reflation takes hold

Advertisement

For now at least the Mining GFC is dead as the Yellen reflation takes centre stage. The US dollar eased again:

tvc_106f0466894f5c82e5a505ce3d48e0f5

Commodity currencies are all on the verge of breaking to new highs:

tvc_8ae74d9d100a60511dfa6012d6f28de5
Advertisement

Yen and euro were stable:

tvc_757e45b63c3b4f13cea2f11c23d4654d

Brent oil roared to new highs:

tvc_a5e3b566843ef7f73186ad6005d49949

Gold was stable:

Advertisement
tvc_0e60d10ccc4123e3e7f63891486532ed

Interestingly, base metals were hammered:

tvc_023c1891fae201fb2db73e4ae44399e6

And big miners fell:

tvc_eb3142ccff2cb61c84c939759869d12c

US and EM high yield broke out big with oil:

Advertisement
tvc_dfcd21fddf42c424328f719640649f35

And the S&P500 hit new 2016 highs on its march towards all time highs:

tvc_8e89c29fe7ac793b92dab41c71cd307a
Advertisement

Janet Yellen take a bubbly bow. The Mining GFC is dead. Oil is back. Emerging markets and credit are rallying. Yet anything China exposed is not. Indeed this turn of events is not like the commodity bear market rally earlier this year as the threat of more Fed tightening is hanging over the broader complex.

For miners this is now an unhappy rally as their input costs rise more than their demand outlook does, but so long as oil is kept out of it then wider markets can scale on towards new highs.

Of course at some point Ms Yellen will have to face up to an even bigger bubble and, given a creeping Chinese slowing will transpire throughout H2, she’ll find herself at year end with an even more difficult decision to resume tightening.

Advertisement

But for now, party! From CNNMoney:

Capture sfdgwas
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.