Weekend links 16-17 April, 2016

Hans Heysen, Guardian of the Brachina Gorge, 1937, National Gallery of Victoria

…sorry I am flat chat for the next month or so. This will get the WE links started today, and will be added to as time constraints allow

China

• China quarterly GDP growth slows but signs of stability emerge– Guardian
• Back to 1997? Why Chinese yuan and Hong Kong property prices may go down by a fifth next year– SCMP
• Why is Citi closing branches in China?– SCMP
• As China’s Growth Slows, Banks Feel the Strain of Bad Debt– NY Times
• Market responds coolly to China’s 6.7% growth– Nikkei Asian Review
• The Truth about Chinese Unemployment Rates – Project-Syndicate
• The Risks of China’s Failure – and Success – Project-Syndicate
• China economy: Are traders overestimating its health? – CNBC
• China First-Quarter GDP Rises From 3 Months Earlier on Housing – Bloomberg
• China’s Debt-Fueled Transition May Be Dangerous, IMF No. 2 Says – Bloomberg
• Funny Numbers Show Money Leaving China – Bloomberg…very good read…

Asia

• Bank Indonesia announces new benchmark for policy rate– Nikkei Asian Review
• Japan’s business lobby rails against EU tax disclosure proposal– Nikkei Asian Review
• BOJ’s negative rates draw new fire from banking sector– Nikkei Asian Review
• Costs of policy uncertainty and delaying reform: The case of ageing Japan – VoxEU
• Japan needs labour market reform, not just higher wages – Bruegel

Europe

• E,U,’s Five Biggest Economies Join Tax Crackdown After Panama Papers– NY Times…only so they control what everyone finds…
• Documentary Stirs French as Officials Weigh a Labor Overhaul– NY Times
• Spain’s Industry Minister Steps Down Over Panama Papers Revelations– NY Times
• IMF could back away from Greek bailout if debt deal is not agreed– Telegraph
• ECB sees no evidence of asset bubbles from ultra low rates: Draghi – CNBC…so obviously there are none…
• Youth unemployment in the Mediterranean region and its long-term implications – Bruegel
• How to reform EU fiscal rules – Bruegel

United Kingdom

• George Osborne says Brexit would drive up mortgage rates– Guardian…isn’t it interesting to see mortgage rates used as a threat not to do something…
• Would Brexit really force up your mortgage rate?– Guardian
• In Brexit Debate, English Fishermen Eye Waters Free of E.U.– NY Times
• Mortgage bills will rise if UK votes for Brexit, warns Osborne– Telegraph
• The Brexit Alarm – Project-Syndicate, Eichengreen
• A British Bridge for a Divided Europe – Project-Syndicate

United States

• Thanks to Bernie Sanders, we now know how many big corporations don’t pay taxes– Washington Post
• Why There’s Hope for the Middle Class (With Help From China)– NY Times
• This is the worst argument about the national debt you’ll ever find– Washington Post
• Obama Presses for Open Market for Cable Set-Top Boxes– NY Times
• U.S. industrial output falls, signals weak first-quarter GDP growth – Reuters
• Could the San Francisco real estate market finally be slowing down? – Market Watch
• Medicare wants to slash complications in hip and knee replacements – Market Watch
• Americans pay more in taxes than for housing, food, clothes combined – Market Watch
• Why Lowering Interest Rates Won’t Fix the Student-Debt Problem – The Atlantic

Americas

• Canada’s homes sales hit record with prices soaring at fastest pace since 2008– Financial Post
• All the supposed benefits of a cheaper dollar? They aren’t actually true– Financial Post
• Face it, there is nothing ‘free market’ about the Vancouver, Toronto housing boom– Financial Post…and nothing ‘free market’ about Australian RE either…
• The Task Ahead for Brazil – Project-Syndicate

Terra Specufestor

• Was that a threat? The message given to Malcolm Turnbull on his visit to China– Fairfax…yes it was…
• China: They’re just not that into us any more– Fairfax…HnH has been saying that for a while…
• Australia’s Telstra to sell major stake in China’s Autohome to Ping An Insurance for US$1.6b– SCMP
• Target to close Geelong headquarters and cut 130 to 180 jobs– Guardian …ground zero of Australia’s forthcoming economic implosion…
• Macquarie co-founder Mark Johnson slams money-focused bank bonus culture– ABC
• Treasurer Scott Morrison moves to assure voters of budget tax plan– ABC
• Reserve Bank focuses on real estate and China as biggest financial risks– ABC
• Back off Moody’s: Australia should not increase taxes– ABC
• Turnbull’s Chinese dilemma: balancing security and the economy– ABC
• Clive Palmer says ‘at no time’ did he take money out of Queensland Nickel– ABC
• Fundraiser for Assistant Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer to be sponsored by NAB amid banking firestorm– Fairfax
• McGrath real estate company in sharemarket trading halt– Fairfax

Commodities

• Still-mighty OPEC tries to maintain oil’s recent price gains, considers freezing output– Financial Post
• Not just China: Japan, South Korea push cheap steel as world reels – Reuters
• Doha meeting might not matter much for oil prices: Kemp – Reuters
• China scrapping steel export subsidies is a little and big deal – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• Thyssenkrupp wants active role in any steel mergers – Reuters
• China deal may trigger knee-jerk metal sales, but little long-term impact – Reuters
• U.S. crude’s contango widens on Marketlink pipeline work – Reuters
• ‘Confusion reigns supreme’ ahead of Doha oil freeze meeting – Market Watch
• Saudi Prince Reiterates Oil Freeze Depends on Others Joining – Bloomberg

Capital Markets

• A Tough Year for Banking Takes Shape– NY Times
• A century bond? Just think what can happen in 100 years– Telegraph
• Templeton’s Mark Mobius: Russian stock market is bargain of the century – CNBC
• US shale defaults to ‘creep up’: JPMorgan – CNBC
• The ECB’s latest gimmick: Cash for loans – VoxEU

Global Macro

• Path of $681 Million: From Saudi Arabia to Malaysian Premier’s Personal Account– NY Times…big corruption goes right to the very top….
• They make enormous profit and rip customers off – banks need to clean up their act– Guardian
• US announces deal for China to scrap export subsidies to cool trade frictions between the two powers– SCMP
• At the World Bank, a Shortage of Concrete (Language)– NY Times
• G-20 financial leaders call for crackdown on tax avoidance– Nikkei Asian Review…so they didnt know previously?…
• Deflation is the dog that has failed to bark, let alone bite– Telegraph
• G20 worried by ‘modest’ global growth, commodities weakness – Reuters
• Central banks may do more harm than good, says head of India’s central bank – Market Watch
• Pensions are a bubble waiting to burst – Reuters
• What’s Wrong With Negative Rates? – Project-Syndicate, Stiglitz
• Getting Past Slow Growth – Project-Syndicate
• A Progressive Logic of Trade – Project-Syndicate
• Financial cycles, labour misallocation, and economic stagnation – VoxEU
• Breaking the link between housing cycles, banking crises, and the recession – VoxEU
• Global Crisis in the US vs the Eurozone: Banks and monetary policy – VoxEU

…and furthermore…

• March temperature smashes 100-year global record– Guardian
• Who are Mossack Fonseca?– Irish Times…couple of weeks old but good read…
• Researchers have found a ‘striking’ new side effect from eating fast food– Washington Post
• This unusual test reveals how smart you are– Washington Post
• The No. 1 thing that most surprises retirees about retirement – Market Watch
• I was invited to a child’s birthday party with a gift registry. Is that normal? – Market Watch…there is something insidious about gift registries….
• The labour market consequences of technology adoption: Concrete evidence from the Great Depression – VoxEU
• The One Thing, Historically, That’s Prompted Countries to Raise Taxes on the Rich – The Atlantic…the great fear must be that war is the only way to get the rich to pay tax…