Weekend Links 20-21 February, 2016

Harbinger, 1986, James Gleeson, National Gallery of Victoria

….I don’t know what has happened with ASX at the Close, so will go early, and add through the eve into tomorrow…. 

China

• China’s outbound property buying spree will continue – SCMP
• China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Dwindling Rapidly – NY Times
• China Bears Say the Capital Outflow Is Just Beginning – Bloomberg
• Slump in factory gate prices extends to record length as China’s economy slows – SCMP
• China’s new M&A players haunted by past failures – Reuters
• Could China Have a Reserves Crisis? [CHART] – ValueWalk…disturbing chart…
• China’s Currency Test: Can It Get Capital Controls Right? – ValueWalk…good read…
• Here’s why speculation that China is mass-selling U.S. Treasurys could be true – Market Watch
• Is China’s race to space a military ploy? – CNBC…like the US one?…
• Overhauling China – Project-Syndicate
• Hong Kong Developers Under Pressure to Cut Prices Amid Slowdown – Bloomberg
• How long until China reaches the floor of the recommended reserve adequacy range? – Bond Vigilantes
• Slower Economy a Crucible for Nation’s Steel Industry – Caixin
• Regulators Leave Wealth Management Industry Unplugged – Caixin
• Indebted Steelmaker ‘Not Making Repayments Agreed upon in 2014’ – Caixin
• Higher prices in January not a sign of demand recovery – Nikkei Asian Review
• The China Delusion – Project-Syndicate
• China to cut home transaction taxes – China Daily
• Emerging markets: Big trouble from brittle China – Euromoney
• China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Dwindling Rapidly – NY Times
• China web finance craze sows confusion and risk – Reuters
• Sensitive financial data ‘missing’ from central bank report on capital flowing out of China’s slowing economy – SCMP
• China to lower annual property tax as part of effort to boost housing sales – SCMP

Asia

• Abenomics? How About Kurodanomics? – Bloomberg
• India seen with fastest wage growth, topping 10% – Nikkei Asian Review
• Is Saudi Arabia on the Verge of Collapse? – The Atlantic…question worth asking…
• Young Saudis See Cushy Jobs Vanish Along With Nation’s Oil Wealth – NY Times
• Deflation in steel, other materials dents export machine – Nikkei Asian Review
• Singapore’s domestic wholesale trade contracts 15.9% in Q4 – BusinessTimes
• Malaysia freezes recruitment of foreign workers after protests – BusinessTimes
• 20 power cos embroiled in Rs30,000-crore coal import scam – DNAIndia…a scam involving Singapore middlemen and commodity…

 Europe

• The Netherlands and Finland – two neoliberal hardliners in decline. Part 1 & Part 2 – Flassbeck Economics…good read…
• Greece remains mired in an economic depression without the promised Grecovery – Notayesmanseconomics
• Russia Sues Ukraine in London Court Over Unpaid Debt Claim – NY Times
• In Defense of European Deposit Insurance – Peterson Institute
• One market, two monies: the European Union and the United Kingdom – Bruegel
• Which fiscal union for the euro area? – Bruegel
• Hard times for Italian banks – Bruegel
• ECB sees increased risks, some pressing for pre-emptive action – minutes – RTE
• Now We Know Who Really Runs Ukraine – Foreign Policy
• EU banking union ushers in new era – Euromoney
• Russia would be better off if oil were to dive lower over short term – BNE Intellinews
• West’s policy of supporting liberals and moderates lies in tatters – BNE Intellinews, Aris…100% right…
• Eurozone’s central bankers consider letting inflation run hot – Telegraph…after concentrating the assets, allow prices to fly – what would the downside of that be?…

United Kingdom

• EU summit clinches deal to keep Britain in bloc with ‘special status’ – Reuters 
• The economic impact of ‘Brexit’ – Woodford Funds….very comprehensive read…
• Child benefits for EU migrants in the UK – Bruegel
• How mounting job cuts could threaten UK’s economic recovery – Guardian
• The Bank of England is switching to expect ever lower inflation – Notayesmanseconomics
• UK employment hits a record high but wages are weaker and unemployment higher in December – Notayesmanseconomics
• Bank of England deputy says 2019 rate hike expectations not justified – Telegraph
• Is Britain No Longer a Nation of Tea Drinkers? – The Atlantic
• Brexit: London Financial Sector Divided Over Risks Of EU Departure – IB Times
• Grieving families could be forced to pay a new death tax – Telegraph
• ‘Generation Rent’ dominates London property market for the first time – Telegraph
• Public finances show largest January surplus since 2008, retail sales boom – Reuters
• European Union Struggling With How to Keep Britain in the Fold – NY Times

United States

• The Real Economy Is Talking, but Treasuries Aren’t Listening – Bloomberg
• Negative-Rate Policies Are Becoming More Common. Is the U.S. Next? – Bloomberg
• Tax Refunds Aren’t for Spending This Year – Bloomberg
• Americans revert to buying gas-guzzlers – CBS
• US Industrial Production Starts 2016 On The Right Foot – Gavekal
• Recession in US looks unlikely: Analysts – CNBC
• Here’s why the Fed — not the market — might be right about a recession – Market Watch
• What Can the U.S. Learn from Big Government in Sweden and Denmark? – Economonitor
• Why Would Anyone Want to Make the US More Like Europe? – Economonitor
• House flipping: Deja vu all over again – CNBC
• US Jobless Claims Drop To 3-Month Low – Capital Spectator
• The New American Dream: A Rental of One’s Own – The Atlantic
• Fed sharpshooters can’t hit 2% inflation target, much less 4% – Market Watch
• Head of Minneapolis Fed calls for action on TBTF banks – World Finance

Americas

• Argentine Central Bank Intervenes in Peso First Time Since Float – Bloomberg
• At Pemex, a New CEO Confronts Painful Reckoning for Oil Bust – Bloomberg
• A Fight Over Argentina’s Debt Produces No Winners – NY Times
• Puerto Rico’s House of Representatives Passes Bill to Restructure $9 Billion in Debt – NY Times
• Canada ‘leading the charge’ as calls for more fiscal stimulus grow – Financial Post
• What’s Ailing Brazil? – Project-Syndicate
• Oil slump raises Venezuela default risk – Euromoney
• Mexico’s surprise intervention missed chance to nail speculators – Reuters

Terra Election-modus

• Malcolm Turnbull warns property values will fall under Labor negative gearing policy – Fairfax…has he fallen for the 3 card trick? Can he promise they won’t fall under the Torynuffs? and what does he do to make sure of that?…
• Double dissolution is a ‘live option’ as Morrison rules out ‘pixie horse’ tax cuts – Guardian
• Dirty money: Australia’s missing $100 bills in hands of criminals, tax cheats, expert warns – ABC …and how much RE is missing in the hands of criminals and tax cheats?….
• Fairfax relies on real estate for profit rise – ABC
• Is Morrison dreaming when it comes to tax reform? – ABC
• An election fought over policies? No, this isn’t fantasy – ABC
• Santos plunges to $2.7b loss, Iluka returns to profit – ABC
• ‘Blatant hypocrisy’: Why China is being criticised over its opposition to Australia buying stealthy Japanese submarines – SCMP
• Business confidence and tax reform key to Turnbull government re-election: CEDA – The Conversation
• Selling ports and other assets: why anti-competitive deals to boost prices cost the public in the end – The Conversation
• Include a crackdown on trusts in tax reform: ACOSS – The Conversation
• Labor’s negative gearing reform proposal is economically responsible and fair – Guardian, Kouk…where was the proposal in Gillard Rudd era?…
• Australian labour market – looking pretty wan indeed – Bill Mitchell
• Parts and components trade may well save the economy – Manufacturers Monthly
• The infrastructure plan sounds great. But what to build and how to fund it? – Guardian, Jericho
• Vital signs: the missing link between labour markets and growth – The Conversation
• Dairy prices fall again, as rains improve New Zealand prospects – Agrimoney
• ScoMo how about we stop the negative gearing lies – CPEconomics, Pickering…good read…
• Is the employment boom over? – CPEconomics, Pickering
• Australian dollar drops on report RBA’s Edwards said it’s ‘a bit too high’ – Fairfax
• Super tax concessions reduction an equitable way to narrow the deficit – ABC
• Firm blue-ribbon ground of Mackellar under Bronwyn Bishop starts to crack – Guardian
• Malcolm Turnbull, stop dithering on tax reform and tell us what you really think – Fairfax, Aly…maybe he thinks there is no need for reform…
• Independent modelling backs Labor’s negative gearing policy – Fairfax
• Privatising Medicare’s payments system and the erosion of Commonwealth Public Service capability – John Menadue
• ‘Swiss cheese’: Canberra plans to plug tax deduction holes – Fairfax
• Our banks are beyond the law – Fairfax, West…good read…
• Will changes to negative gearing make houses more affordable? – Fairfax

Commodities

• ‘Selfish’ oil firms relish new production despite glut – Reuters
• Iran sees oil freeze pact as not enough to help market: Iranian sources – Reuters
• Is Saudi Arabia winning the war against shale? – Reuters, John Kemp
• Commodities’ well-traveled road to nowhere. Cutting output – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• Japan LNG imports fall 14 percent in Jan, biggest drop since 2009 – Reuters
• Oil market downside looms amid ‘humongous’ pressures: BofA’s Blanch – CNBC
• Will We Ever See Oil Back Above 100 USD per Barrel? – Economonitor
• Iran treads fine line over production freeze – Nikkei Asian Review
• EU wheat stocks poised for rapid run-down in 2016-17 – Agrimoney
• Will La Nina Push Commodities Lower After El Nino? – ValueWalk
• Iron-ore crash sends Kumba from Anglo’s darling to reject – Mineweb
• Technology helps keep miners afloat but prices under water – Mineweb
• The Robber Baron Who Botched the World’s First Oil Storage Trade – Bloomberg

 Capital markets

• Hong Kong Yuan Interbank Rates Surge as Currency Loses Ground – Bloomberg
• Federal Reserve’s Risky Decision to Loosen Bank Capital Rules – NY Times
• The case for “global quantitative tightening” – Sober Look…good charts…
• Banks’ hybrid hissy fit is no disaster – Reuters
• Federal Reserve playing with fire on bank capital – Reuters
• Oversold Rally & Global Economy – The Short Side of Long
• Non-consolidated subsidiaries enable banks to arbitrage capital rules – VoxEU
• The case for growth-indexed bonds in advanced economies today – VoxEU
• New York Fed Suggests Large Asset Managers Are Systemic Risk Due To Runs – ValueWalk

 Global Macro

• Here’s What Economists Think About Negative Policy Rates – Bloomberg
• Central Banking Goes Negative – Project-Syndicate, Roach
• Time for a Carbon Tax – Project-Syndicate
• When is Fighting Corruption Worth It? – Project-Syndicate…when it is bidding up the price of an asset you are selling?…
• What growing life expectancy gaps mean for the promise of Social Security – Brookings
• Is China To Blame For Falling Inflation Expectations? – Gavekal…that chart is pretty definitive…
• Here’s why oil rout is hurting the global economy instead of helping – Market Watch
• Are We Doomed to Slow Growth? – NY Times
• How the world’s great oil powers became so powerless – Washington Post
• Global leaders must act now as fresh downturn looms, warns OECD – Telegraph
• OECD Cuts World Growth Projections, Warns Over Austerity And Financial Instability – IB Times
• Painful spillovers from slowing BRICS growth – VoxEU
• How to resolve a systemic sovereign debt crisis – VoxEU
• The Economics of Analyzing the TPP (Pdf) – Peterson Institute
• VimpelCom pays $835m to US and Dutch over Uzbekistan telecoms bribes – Guardian
• The Change in Demand for Debt: The New Landscape in Low-income Countries – IMF Direct
• What Beats Corruption? – Project-Syndicate…corrupt heads on sticks…corruption will become the next big global issue…
• World risks being sucked into ‘self-fulfilling’ spiral, warns Moody’s – Telegraph

…and furthermore…

• The Anglosphere Illusion – Project-Syndicate, Gareth Evans…dissing the white English speakers club…
• Closing Developing Countries’ Capital Drain – Project-Syndicate
• The Inequality Puzzle – Project-Syndicate
• The “big data” app that predicts employees’ health – CBS
• The deadly math behind rising auto insurance rates – CBS
• Here’s why Apple won’t unlock San Bernardino killer’s iPhone – CBS
• What if the FBI were dealing with an Android? – CNBC
• Getting rid of $100 bill would be no easy task – Market Watch
• Zika Outbreak Could Be an Omen of the Global Warming Threat – NY Times
• I dare you to read this and still feel good about tipping – Washington Post
• The Gordon Gekko Effect: The Role Of Culture In The Financial Industry – ValueWalk
• THE RISE OF THE PLATFORM ECONOMY – Pieria
• The future of bank risk management – McKinsey
• A Dozen Things you can Learn from the Anti-Models that are Bernard Madoff and his Victims – 25iq
• The Invention of the ‘Type A’ Personality – Priceonomics
• How a Basket on Wheels Revolutionized Grocery Shopping – Priceonomics…good read…
• The impossibility theorem that beguiles the Left – Bill Mitchell…a very good read…
• China Is Splurging On Big-Name Soccer Talent – FiveThirtyEight…is it a form of capital flight?…
• Why millennials are prioritizing short-term spending over long-term saving – Guardian…why is western, English language, society indebting its future?…
• This outrageous reality show captures a massive trend among the global rich – Washington Post…do these guys have houses near you?…
• How People Learn to Become Resilient – New Yorker…a mantra of ‘get the bastards back’ works well…
• Hey Joe, banks can’t lend out reserves – RWER, Steve Keen
• The organizational cost of insufficient sleep – McKinsey…important issue…
• Currency And The Collapse Of The Roman Empire [INFOGRAPHIC] – ValueWalk…very good…