Weekend Links 13-14 February, 2016

Tug Boat in a Boat, 1956, John Perceval, National Gallery of Victoria

China

• M&A: China’s world of debt – FT.com
• Overhauling China – Project-Syndicate
• China’s Crisis of Miscommunication – Project-Syndicate
• China’s Exchange-Rate Trap – Project-Syndicate, Eichengreen
• Pollution crisis is choking the Chinese economy – CNBC
• Medical Fees Proposal Jolts China’s Pensioners – Caixin
• China’s economic woes threaten its strategic goals – Nikkei Asian Review
• Kyle Bass – China’s $34 Trillion Experiment Is Exploding – Full Letter – Value Walk
• China’s Current Account in 2015: A Growing Trade Surplus – Peterson Institute
• Beijing is still loath to let go of China’s increasingly vital services sector – China Economic Review
• Could China Have a Reserves Crisis?– Council On Foreign Relations
• Bass Says China Bank Losses May Top 400% of Subprime Crisis– Bloomberg
• Yuan Declines Most in Two Weeks as Global Selloff Saps Sentiment– Bloomberg
• This is what’s choking the Chinese economy– CNBC

Asia

• Bank of Japan loses control as QE hits the limits – Telegraph, AEP
• The age of Asian infrastructure – Nikkei Asian Review
• The Bank of Japan Is Moving Too Slowly in the Right Direction – Peterson Institute
• Indonesia Relaxes Foreign Investment Limits For 29 Sectors – IB Times
• Japan’s economic roller coaster is headed for another dip – Japan Times
• Amid turmoil, housing market may get boost from refinancing rush – Japan Times
• Risk of Singapore central bank easing seen rising on growth woes – Business Times

Europe

• Eurozone Economy Grows, but Total Output Still Lags Behind 2008 – NY Times
• Which of Europe’s Piigs might fly? – Market Watch
• Is the sovereign debt crisis coming back to haunt Europe? – Telegraph
• Why Europe’s big banks still scare investors – CNBC
• Swedish Bank Move Creates a Global Shudder – NY Times
• Why euro-zone ‘outs’ should join banking union – Breugel
• For Europe, Financial Innovation Is a Better Bet than a Fiscal Transfer Union – Peterson Institute
• CoCo bonds show confidence drop in European banks – World Finance
• Why Portugal is Important Even If You have No Direct Exposure – Marc to Market
• Swedish Bank Move Creates a Global Shudder – NY Times
• Putin is a bigger threat to Europe’s existence than Isis– The Guardian
• Medvedev lambasts ’stupid’ Merkel migrant policy– Yahoo
• Trump warns: Migrants will bring ‘end of Europe’– WND.com
• Why aren’t more of Russia’s banks failing? – BNE Intellinews
• Mortgages vs. pensions and blasts from the past – BNE Intellinews
• How Europe’s banks got themselves into this precarious position – Telegraph
• Italy Economy Barely Expands, Casting Doubts on Recovery Outlook – Bloomberg
• A Swedish Rate Cut Doesn’t Make Sense – Bloomberg
• Why Russia and Cyprus are getting cozy again – CNBC

United Kingdom

• UK growth to take a hit as builders and factories disappoint – Telegraph
• Central London Property Losing Haven Status as Bears Move In – Bloomberg
• U.K. Construction Data Cast More Doubt on Fourth-Quarter Growth – Bloomberg
• Britain, Better-off Out of Europe– NY Times
• Gilts plunge as interest rate rises recede – Guardian
• Why City firms struggle to challenge elitism – The Conversation
• Buy-to-let investing just became a very, very bad idea – Spectator
• Industrial data underline UK’s struggle to rebalance economy – FT.com
• How will the Brexit referendum affect the UK’s double deficit economy? – Lowy Interpreter
• CBI downgrades forecast for UK economic growth – Guardian

United States

• Yellen’s dilemma: A downturn with no easy response – Reuters
• Yield curve recession indicator sends warning on US economy – FT.com
• US Interest Rates: Risky Gradualism – Economonitor
• Bernie Sanders’s Tax Plan Would Test an Economic Hypothesis – NY Times
• Obama’s Budget Seeks to Ease Economic Fears for U.S. Workers – NY Times
• The For-Profit College Conundrum – The Atlantic
• In the US, a college education is far more expensive for women than for men – Quartz
• Former President Bush making SC campaign debut for brother next week– The State
• Fed Yet To Fully Embrace A New Policy Path– Economist’s View
• Recession talk: Is the US economy running on empty? – CNBC
• Clinton Adopts Sanders’ Rhetoric of `Rigged’ Economy in Debate– Bloomberg
• Markets may be tanking but the U.S. economy isn’t – CNN Money
• Can Obama help fix America’s retirement crisis? – CBS
• Yellen on negative rates: ‘We wouldn’t take those off the table’ – CNBC
• The story on real wages: four measures showing actual improvement – Bonddad
• How Much Does America’s Huge National Debt Actually Matter? – Time
• Forced Out: For many poor Americans, eviction never ends. – New Yorker
• The Clintons Have Lost the Working Class – New Yorker
• Congress bans import of forced labor products – AP
• Hyperinflation Paranoia Guides the Fed – Bloomberg
• Some Hedge Funds Want to Make Subprime Auto Loans Next Big Short – Bloomberg
• The poor are better off when we build more housing for the rich – Washington Post

Americas

• Canada could adopt negative interest rates within the next two years, Citi says – Financial Post
• Flipping houses? Expect to face tax on 100% of your profits – Financial Post
• Shadow flipping could put Vancouver real estate deals under scrutiny from the taxman – Vancouver Sun
• Proposed bill seeks to track information involving B.C. real estate buyers – Vancouver Sun…now there is an idea…
• Oil slump raises Venezuela default risk – Euromoney
• Argentina’s Bond Fight Comes Down to Its Worst Bonds – Bloomberg
• Should Argentina now pay the ransom to its hostage-takers? – Prime Economics

Terra Specufestorus

• Shorten unveils Labor election policy: No more negative gearing existing homes – Fairfax…NG has the smell of death about it all of a sudden…
• Cap on negative gearing and work-related deductions being considered by Treasury – Fairfax, Martin
• PPP plundering takes its toll on love – Fairfax, West…superb read: and they want to get the private sector on a $50BLN teat with Medicare…
• Australia can have good jobs without sacrificing employment growth – Guardian, Jericho
• The economic gamble behind the election date – ABC, Jericho…good read…
• Australia’s new deputy PM opposes some foreign investment in agriculture – Nikkei Asian Review
• Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens: Political leaders are failing to lead essential tax discussion – Fairfax
• Tax reform: Treasury modelling presents taxing dilemma for Government – ABC
• Treasury modelling shows no growth lift from GST tax mix switch – The Conversation
• Untangling the debate on bracket creep, corporate tax rates and negative gearing – The Conversation
• Commodities won’t save Australia from recession: ASX boss Elmer Funke Kupper – ABC
• Breaking the taxi and dairy monopolies, Aussie style – Financial Post…it can be weird looking local through another nations press…
• Mitsubishi Heavy willing to build subs Down Under – Nikkei Asian Review
• Big Four banks have good reasons to worry – Fairfax
• Time to slaughter some sacred tax cows – Fairfax…yep…
• Australia’s population hits 24 million faster than expected – The Age… Watch your living standards fall…
• Turnbull, Trump and the rise of the CEO politician: we’re all just shareholders in Nation Inc – Guardian
• Malcolm Turnbull’s post-GST tax options – ABC, Verrender
• The Australia Institute Podcast: Follow the (Mining Boom) Money – TAI… Worth a listen…..
• Australian central bank governor hints Aussie dollar could fall on commodities drop – CNBC
• Minister dumped as Malcolm Turnbull keeps snap poll option alive – Fairfax…so close, yet so far…
• AGL pleads guilty to 11 counts of not declaring political donations – Guardian
• Market manipulation – ASIC better get it right, first time – The Conversation
• Explainer: what might upset Australia’s ‘rock solid’ banks – The Conversation
• Correct economic stance on TPP is lukewarm opposition – NZ Herald
• Labor promises to cut negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions – Guardian

Commodities

• China’s ‘zombie commodities’ haunt the market – Nikkei Asian Review
• Dryness remains a threat to world coffee output – Agrimoney
• Hedge funds wrong-footed by sugar price rebound – Agrimoney
• Iron ore’s false bull rally to plummet back to reality – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• Is Oil Becoming Stranded? – Project-Syndicate…good question to ask…
• Venezuela proposes OPEC, non-OPEC producers ‘freeze’ oil supply – Reuters
• The US enters a brave new world as it begins LNG exports – Platts
• Gold is back in vogue with investors, but the question is, does this rally have legs? – Financial Post
• Big mining finds what goes up must come down – Guardian
• The Golden Age – Sober Look
• Iran faces a bumpy road back to global energy markets – Bruegel
• Oil is back below $27 because there’s still way, way too much of it – Quartz
• Gold surges to 1-year high on financial uncertainty– Reuters

Capital Markets

• If Credit Is Right, The S&P Is Facing A 40% Crash– Zero Hedge
• Buying the Dip a Distant Thought as Pessimism Grips Market – Bloomberg
• Five-Decade Market Pro Who Called Bond Rally Sees 1% U.S. Yields – Bloomberg
• This is a global stock market rout worth celebrating – Telegraph, AEP
• The world can’t afford another financial crash – it could destroy capitalism as we know it – Telegraph, Heath…but capitalism as we know it has become a game for the 1%ers…
• Like a game of Jenga, one wrong move could bring banks crashing down – Telegraph
• Yuan hits two-month high after China central bank liquidity injection – SCMP
• Investors flock to safe haven trades as sell-off deepens – CNBC
• Interest rate futures see next Fed move being a rate cut – CNBC
• Why Global Yields Are Collapsing – ETF.com
• Designing Growth-Indexed Bonds When Interest Rates Are Low – Peterson Institute
• Great Graphic: Dollar May Be Less Important for Fed – Marc to Market
• Bear Market Descends on Global Stocks– Bloomberg
• Forget the Great Recession—Welcome to the ‘Great Repricing’– Bloomberg
• Europe’s equity markets matter – VoxEU
• How the Yuan Crisis Could Forge a New Currency Order – Peterson Institute
• Market fears are feeding on themselves– FT
• Leading market historian: ‘Shares could halve from here’ – Telegraph

Global Macro

• The petrodollar age is no more but with it go old certainties – FT.com…great read…
• Negative Interest Rates Are Spreading Across the World. Here’s What You Need to Know. – NY Times
• Fed’s Yellen sticks to her guns as global market rout worsens – Reuters
• The Case for Breaking Up Too-Big-To-Fail Banks – Economonitor
• Is this the week central banks lost their market credibility? – Market Watch
• Falling oil prices will bankrupt the likes of Russia, Saudi Arabia – Market Watch
• The Negative Rates Club – Project-Syndicate
• The Trade Numbers Game – Project-Syndicate
• $8bn wiped off Boeing’s value by ‘accounting investigation’ – Telegraph
• This crisis has been caused by arrogant central banks – Telegraph, Heath
• Why the next recession could be different — and far more dangerous – Financial Post
• Trouble may be overblown, but when will it blow over? – Nikkei Asian Review
• Fed’s Yellen sticks to her guns as global market rout worsens – Nikkei Asian Review
• Fresh Wave of Selling Slams Global Markets– WSJ
• Risk Grows of Markets Sparking Recession– WSJ
• Federal Reserve Won’t Backpedal on Interest Rates, Janet Yellen Says – NY Times
• Using rules of thumb for exchange rate pass-through could be misleading – VoxEU
• World trade, 1800-2015 – VoxEU
• Capitalism’s growth problem – RWER
• Our dysfunctional monetary system (3 graphs) – RWER, Steve Keen…classic set of charts…
• Why is slow growth a problem? (4 graphs) – RWER…good charts…
• Seeing the Forest for the Trees – Marc to Market
• Bizarro World of Negative Interest Rates and Central Banks Pushing for Wage Increases – Marc to Market
• Central Banks Explore New Frontier– Bloomberg View
• How emerging market panic has infected the West – Nikkei Asian Review
• S. and Russia Announce Plan for Humanitarian Aid and a Cease-Fire in Syria– NY Times
• Russia warns of ’new world war’ starting in Syria– The Telegraph
• China’s Coming Devaluation: Another Consequence of the Fed’s Mistake of 2015 – Macro & Other Musings
• Creditors must brace for a tsunami of losses in a world awash with debt – Telegraph
• Once again, we are powerless before the financial storm – Telegraph
• The Shipping Industry Is Suffering From China’s Trade Slowdown – Bloomberg
• Racked Markets Hand Verdict to Central Banks on Sub-Zero Rates – Bloomberg

…and furthermore…

• Vaccines Versus Superbugs – Project-Syndicate
• Here Is The Real Reason Why Authorities Want To Ban High Denomination Bank Notes – Zero Hedge
• Be attuned to seniors who carry a burden of debt – Washington Post
• You’d have to pay an exit fee to give up your citizenship. Corporations? Nada. – Washington Post
• The Bitter Fight Over the Benefits of Bilingualism – The Atlantic
• The Link Between Neanderthal DNA and Depression Risk – The Atlantic
• Betrayed by the Dream Factory – Slate…good read on the dark side of student debt…
• The Origins of the Superrich: The Billionaire Characteristics Database – Peterson Institute…well worth a look…
• Work imitates life – Aeon…for too many managers life doesn’t imitate work enough…
• American Pharoah’s Second Life as a $200k-a-Night Stud – Bloomberg…speculation, or investment?…
• The Veggie Burger Principle – Priceonomics
• Money must be removed from politics, says OECD – World Finance…someone had better tell money…
• Music therapy increasingly recognized in Japan for hospital patients and elderly – Japan Times
• When Family Fortunes Beget Vicious Power Struggles – NY Times
• Do Economists Actually Believe “Greed is Good”?– Economics.com
• Can mass migration boost innovation and productivity? – Bruegel…not when their housing is a speculative plaything…
• The simple rule at the heart of finance is being broken– Quartz
• Gravitational Waves Exist: The Inside Story of How Scientists Finally Found Them – New Yorker
• How People Learn to Become Resilient – New Yorker
• The rules for avoiding poverty: stay in school, keep your job, and find love – Telegraph
• Ultimately, real resource availability constrains prosperity – Bill Mitchell
• Are the rich smarter or just craftier than the rest of us? – Fairfax, Gitto