New Years Weekend 2016 Links, Jan 1, 2 & 3

Australian Home, 1993, Howard Arkley, Hamilton Art Gallery

Happy New Year to All

…the MacroBusiness Cup is on the way…

China

• China Investment Corp retreats from Canada after mining, energy investments sour – Financial Post
• Fortune Lost: The short, brutal and costly ride of China Investment Corp. in Canada – Financial Post
• China suspends some yuan deals by foreign banks – Nikkei Asian Review
• 5 policy risks to watch in China after a year of living dangerously – Financial Post
• Ex-premier Li Peng’s daughter Li Xiaolin quits top power job – SCMP
• Good for buyers, bad for developers? Hong Kong property prices cooling amid ‘oversupply’ – SCMP
• Managing China’s economy becomes ever more difficult – Fairfax
• China Telecom shares fall after chairman held in corruption crackdown – Guardian…this is happening to an awful lot of people, it seems…
• Property scare: Hong Kong conglomerate speeds up China asset sales as outlook darkens – SCMP
• China firm loses 5 years of financial documents as truck stolen – Business Times
• Should Hong Kong let go of its peg to the US dollar now? – SCMP
• Hong Kong battles to keep peg with US dollar going in 2016 – SCMP
• Another shipping conglomerate born as Beijing approves merger of Sinotrans and China Merchants – SCMP
• China to Halt New Coal Mine Approvals Amid Pollution Fight – Bloomberg
• China eyes huge deficit to cushion reforms, slowing growth – Japan Times
• China’s Yuan Still Faces a Long Road to Global Prominence – Bloomberg
• PBOC Doesn’t Offer Reverse Repos for First Time in Six Months – Bloomberg
• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans – Bloomberg
• Chinese Renminbi, U.S. Dollar and ‘Hot Money’ Outflows – Economonitor
• How a Beijing Traffic Cop Lined His Pockets – Caixin
• Bankers Behind ‘Belt and Road’ Business Surge – Caixin
• China faces even more painful choices in 2016 – Market Watch
• Monthly data detail China’s often soft-handed anti-corruption campaign – CER
• Xi leads shift from Keynesianism to ‘supply-side’ economics – China Daily

Asia

• Integration set to accelerate Southeast Asian growth – Nikkei Asian Review
• JAXA project aims for quieter supersonic passenger jets – Nikkei Asian Review
• Japan Inc. putting money in the bank at record clip – Nikkei Asian Review
• Thailand keeps inflation target of 1-4 pct range next year – Nikkei Asian Review
• A Chinese Company in India, Stumbling Over a Culture – NY Times
• Sri Lanka Raises Banks’ Reserve Ratio to Keep Inflation in Check – Bloomberg
• Economy tipped for gradual recovery in 2016 following year of sluggish growth – Japan Times
• The TAPI Pipeline and Paths to Peace in Afghanistan – New Yorker
• Saudi rulers weigh political cost of tough economic reforms – Reuters
• Indebted ASEAN companies will feel Fed’s rate rise – Bruegel
• Saudi Arabia’s economic time bomb – Brookings

Europe

• Experts help divided Cyprus figure out economics of peace – AP
• Portugal imposes almost €2bn in losses on Novo bondholders – Irish Times
• Wall Street investment banks squeezed out in Russia – BNE
• Fallout for Europe may be greater if Britain stays in the EU – Reuters
• Corruption in Ukraine is so bad, a Nigerian prince would be embarrassed – Reuters
• The EU Proves It’s Here to Stay – Bloomberg
• Russia Expands Sanctions Against Turkey After Downing of Jet – NY Times
• Can 2016 be a turnaround year for the Russian economy? – BNE

United Kingdom

• House price growth jumps to eight-month high – Telegraph
• UK house prices: 4.5% rise in 2015 sparks calls for policy intervention – Guardian
• Revealed: housebuilders sitting on 600,000 plots of land – Guardian…and in Australia?…
• FCA will not publish key report into Britain’s banking culture – Telegraph…who are they trying to avoid upsetting?…
• 2015: A FAILING FISCAL POLICY – Pieria

United States

• “American Capitalism” No Longer Serves Society – Zero hedge
• Shipping giants feel the strain of inclement weather and a crush of last-minute holiday orders – Washington Post
• Really rich people are suddenly paying quite a bit more in taxes – Washington Post
• For the Wealthiest, a Private Tax System That Saves Them Billions – NY Times…and how different in Australia?superb read…
• The Wheels Just Fell Off: US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial Crisis – Zero Hedge
• U.S. pending home sales fall in November – Reuters
• An Aging America Shies Away From Risk – Bloomberg
• U.S. home prices climb in October, helped by solid job market – LA Times
• Home Ownership: Millennials Could Jump Into The Housing Market In 2016 – IB Times
• Hard Times In ‘Boomtown, USA’: The Rise And Fall Of Oil In Williston, North Dakota – IB Times
• The Rise Of The Temp Economy: More U.S. Employers Than Ever Want A “Disposable Workforce” – Zero Hedge
• Housing wrap up for 2015 – XE.com (Bonddad)
• Do the Underpants Recession Gnomes have a case after all? – Bonddad
• Unhappy New Year: The U.S. Economy Is Stalling Out – Fiscal Times
• Should governments give away more money? – Prospect
• The year when politics will trump economics – Prospect, Magnus
• 2016: Big ETF Predictions – ETF.com
• Ten Economic Questions for 2016 – Calculated Risk
• Five graphs for 2015: final update – Bonddad…good charts…
• Canary or canard? The suspension of several speculative bond funds carries only faint echoes of the onset of the credit crunch – Economist
• Politics will largely determine whether emerging market growth – and asset prices – recover in 2016 P&I
• 3 Numbers the Fed (and Investors) Should Watch in 2016 – Think Advisor
• By 2050, There Could Be as Many as 25 Million Poor Elderly Americans – The Atlantic

Americas

• Why a world in turmoil is still parking its cash in Canada — lots of cash – Financial Post…and just imagine how much it is still parking in Australia…
• Puerto Rico to skip US$37 million of debt payments, its second default this year – Financial Post
• Equity before affordability: Justin Trudeau’s vacuous response to Vancouver’s housing crisis – SCMP…very good read, essentially covers the same ground the ALP sees housing affordability in Australia from…
• Argentina declares ‘national statistical emergency’ – Business Times
• Puerto Rico’s Debt Trap – Project-Syndicate, Johnson
• Puerto Rico avoids loan default by dipping into cash reserves – Washington Post
• Puerto Rico to Default on $37 Million of Payments Due Jan. 1 – Blooomberg
• Canada’s New Government Makes Its First Big Mistake – Bloomberg

Terra Incognita

• Private schools benefit from more than $2 billion in government funding – Fairfax…up there with Super concessions and Negative Gearing as the biggest vested interest succubus on Australia…
• Turnbull flags sweeping reform following union royal commission as unions urge caution – Fairfax…yes unions can be a blight, but they are far from the largest…
• Gonski had it right, education reform is what’s needed, not more discussion – Fairfax…a nation not serious about education is serious about mediocrity and economic redundancy…
• Budget surplus: it was a good idea at the time – Fairfax, Pascoemeter…and the extra A?…
• California’s kangaroo product market in limbo as moratorium on ban comes to end – ABC
• Trade union royal commission findings released: Cesar Melhem, Kathy Jackson referred for possible prosecution – ABC
• Dairy farmers most optimistic in agricultural sector for 2016 – NZ Herald
• Graduates who move overseas to be forced to pay back student debts – Guardian
• Cooling housing market starting to hurt Melbourne apartment buyers – AFR…and there’s a lot more on the way…
• Property investors switch loans worth $32.5 billion to owner occupiers – AFR…a little something for the ATO to have a ferret around with…

Commodities

• The collapse in the price of oil is a challenge to the old world order – Telegraph, Heath…very good read…
• US gas price lift of little cheer as Asian demand disappoints – Fairfax
• Shell Opens Natural Gas Wells Off Irish Coast – NY Times
• Oil tumbles 3% after unexpected US rise in stockpiles – Business Times
• Petrochemical sector running on full steam as low oil prices boost margins – Business Times
• Oil prices plummet again as Saudis vow to maintain output – Guardian
• Commodity sector in pain as China’s super-boom ends – Reuters
• The Crude Oil Price 2016 Prediction Game – Market Oracle
• The last king of coal makes his stand as mines vanish around him – Mineweb
• High hopes as miners turn to marijuana – Mineweb
• Oil will blow past $80 a barrel in 2016 – Mineweb
• $10tn Investment needed to avoid massive oil price spike – Mineweb
• As OPEC Loses Control, There’s a New Power in the Oil Market – Fiscal Times
• Oil to fall under $30 before rebounding – CNBC
• Oil Prices Become a Problem for U.S. Steelmakers – Bloomberg
• Capital Economics Forecasts Wild Ride for Iron Ore as $20s Loom – Bloomberg
• Russia’s ESPO Blend crude still struggles in Asia-Pacific – Reuters
• Record U.S. Cushing oil stocks stir fears about glut, more price pain – Reuters
• Saudi Arabia says won’t limit oil production, can meet customer demand – Reuters
• Glencore’s John Mack Says China Is Still Bullish for Commodities – Bloomberg
• Regional powers could make or break TAPI pipeline project – Nikkei Asian Review
• Misalignment of Energy Goals Fuels Appetite for Coal – Caxin
• Wild bee populations dwindle in main US crop regions: study – CNBC
• Something Just Broke In The U.S. Silver Market – Zero Hedge

Capital markets

• Goldman Expects 3% Treasury Yields Next Year, Echoing 2015 Call – Bloomberg
• Bond Buyers Readying Defenses for 2016 Leave Nothing to Chance – Bloomberg
• FX monitoring systems remain in infancy – Euromoney
• US junk bonds braced for bumpy 2016 as funds refuse redemptions – Euromoney
• ZIRP, And The Factors That Launched 1,000 ETFs – investorfieldguide.com
• The Effect of Fed Funds Rate Hikes on Consumer Borrowing Costs – NY Fed…interesting…
• Capital markets and job creation in the 21st century – Brookings
• Borrowers keen for more margin loans – Fairfax
• Banks’ biggest bugbear: rising compliance bar – Business Times

Global Macro

• The world’s political and economic order is stronger than it looks – Telegraph, AEP
• Four challenges facing emerging market investors – Financial Post
• Economic growth will disappoint again in 2016, warns IMF’s Christine Lagarde – Telegraph
• G-20 eyes guideline for structural reforms to encourage global growth – Japan Times
• When Currencies Collapse – Peterson Institute…worth noting…
• What Economic Forecasters Got Right, and Wrong, in 2015 – WSJ
• Economy 2016: Coming up after the break, more of the same – Fairfax, Pascoemeter
• Piketty vs. Piketty – Project-Syndicate, Delong…worth a read…
• The Global Economy Confronts Four Geopolitical Risks – Project-Syndicate, Feldstein
• New Year’s Resolutions for the Global Economy – Project-Syndicate, Boskin
• 2016 will be a year of living dangerously for the global economy – Guardian

…and furthermore…

• Jedi master: ‘You must unlearn what you have learned’ for financial success – Washington Post
• Why do we still have 5 cent pieces (and what can you do with them)? – Fairfax…should we ditch them?…
• Austerity is their best weapon: How the rich and powerful sold inequality to the masses – Salon
• The Math Class Paradox – The Atlantic
• Will Inequality Ever Stop Growing? – The Atlantic
• The Luck of the English – The Atlantic
• Speculation on Spacex Mars Colonization Transport – Next Big Future
• THIS IS HOW OUR BODIES BETRAY US IN A LIE – TED
• Here’s What Architects See in Homes of the Future – WSJ
• ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ becomes the fastest film ever to $1-billion mark – Washington Post
• The Fascism of the Affluent – Project-Syndicate, Fischer…superb read…
• Microsoft to warn email users of suspected hacking by governments – Reuters
• In Silicon Valley Now, It’s Almost Always Winner Takes All – New Yorker
• The world economy’s winners and losers in 2015 – Business Times
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers – Guardian
• Beyond the Revolving Door – Project-Syndicate…good read, when are business and government too close?…
• These Charts Show the Astounding Rise in Passive Management – Bloomberg
• A History of Fed Leaders and Interest Rates – NY Times…couple of weeks old but well worth a look…
• Why so many boomers need a retirement reality check – CBS
• How Much of Your Audience is Fake? Marketers thought the Web would allow perfectly targeted ads. Hasn’t worked out that way. – Bloomberg…some very big players are right into this fraud too…
• Clarence Ayres on the economic concept of capital – RWER
• Intergalactic Finance: Valuing the Star Wars Franchise – Musings on Markets…worth a look…
• The Storm That Will Unfreeze the North Pole – The Atlantic

Science Tech & Climate

• Unnatural consensus on climate change – Financial Post
• North Pole temperatures spike ‘above freezing’ as Storm Frank sends warm air north – Telegraph
• High dose vitamin D could treat multiple sclerosis, scientists find – Telegraph
• Lies, Damned Lies and Physics – Bloomberg
• North Pole bracing for sweater weather – Market Watch
• The Real-Life Origins of the Legendary Kraken – Epoch Times
• Human-machine superintelligence can solve the world’s most dire problems – Phys.org
• New genes born by accident lead to evolutionary innovation – Phys.org
• Gene-editing technique successfully stops progression of Duchenne muscular dystrophy – Phys.org
• Malware seen turning systems into proxies without consent – Tech Explore
• Mysterious radio signals from space discovered to be a much better test of Einstein’s General Relativity theory – Phys.org
• Floating anti-plastic waste dam to be tested in North Sea – Phys.org
• Amazon rainforests could transition to savannah-like states in response to climate change, new study predicts – Phys.org

Plus the Christmas 2015 LvO, DLS and me Podcast again

Pt1

Pt2