Weekend Links 28-29 November, 2015

Port Phillip Heads

China

• It’s Open Season on China’s Securities Firms as Probes Intensify – Bloomberg
• ‘Malicious short selling’ used as a weapon to attack metal short sellers – SCMP
• Mystery of the missing chairman: Guotai Junan case makes Western firms wary of Chinese bosses’ connections – SCMP
• Banks’ Total Value of Bad Loans Rises for 16th Straight Quarter – Caixin
• Mis-selling risks grow with China’s insurance sales army – Reuters
• China plans to cut domestic corn prices in bid to shrink massive stockpiles – sources – Reuters
• China’s Macro Disconnect – Project-Syndicate, Roach
• China’s Multilateral Financial Mobilization – Project-Syndicate, Bergloff
• China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks – Bloomberg
• China’s Stock Market Crash: Part 3 – Chinese Dreams – Economonitor
• Citic Securities formally notified of investigation by Chinese market regulator – SCMP
• Macau Gambling Industry Faces Challenges on Multiple Fronts – NY Times
• China Has a Yuan for Luxury, But Not at Home – WSJ
• Mark Mobius warns of waning steel demand in China – CNBC
• China’s growth slowdown: Likely persistence and effects – VoxEU
• Surveying the Ghost Cities of China – Priceonomics….Melbourne is the biggest one outside China…
• China to spend $438b on rail network in the next five years – China Daily
• China property sales growth to slow in 2016:Moody’s – China Daily
• Closer Look: Why Official Goals for Natural Gas Use Are in Doubt – Caixin
• Chinese asset-backed securities rise from the ashes – CER
• China’s Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns – Bloomberg

Asia

• Japan’s Debt Trap Won’t Fix Itself– Bloomberg, Noah Smith
• Asia’s most dynamic companies go local to thrive – Nikkei Asian Review
• Japan Oct household spending falls 2.4 pct vs year ago – Nikkei Asian Review
• Processed foods, foray into finance spur Indian agricultural giant – Nikkei Asian Review
• Japan records lowest unemployment rate in 20 years at 3.1% – Guardian
• Forget e-commerce, m-commerce is where India’s potential lies – CNBC
• Japan’s farming crisis worsens as one in five workers abandoned roots in past five years – Japan Times
• Weak economic data underline pitfalls of Abenomics – Japan Times
• Economic Takeaways From Japan’s Inflation, Unemployment Reports – Bloomberg

Europe

• Europe Should Use its Last QE Bullet Wisely – Bloomberg
• ECB has bright idea for targeted bank-bashing – Reuters
• Greece braces for next general strike – DW
• Russia prepares raft of economic measures against Turkey – DW
• Portugal’s anti-austerity Left take power in watershed moment for the euro – Telegraph
• Spain’s largest ever corporate bankruptcy? – CNBC
• Food fight: Russia tightens grip on Turkey imports – CNBC
• Russia targets Turkish economy as tensions keep simmering – Market Watch
• Is Portugal about to go down the same road as Greece? – CBS
• Italy Says No Agreement Made At G20 To Extend Russia Sanctions – IB Times
• Russian-Turkish economic links offer escalation options – BNE Intellinews
• Winter blackouts threaten Ukraine amid Russian coal embargo – BNE Intellinews
• Schengen: going, going… gone – Politico
• Portugal’s new finance minister is no Varoufakis – Politico
• Iceland’s seven meagre years – VoxEU… they didn’t default and live happily ever after?…
• The ECB and politics in an era of low interest rates – Bruegel
• Turkey Without Russian Tourists Strikes Economy Where It’s Weak – Bloomberg…does it ever….

United Kingdom

• The fantasy of Britain as ‘most prosperous economy’ – FT.com, Wolf
• UK’s Osborne is less austere than he makes out – Reuters
• Britain joins sovereign wealth party too late – Reuters
• George Osborne delays the fiscal pain but it will still be ferocious – Telegraph
• Autumn Statement 2015: IFS criticises George Osborne’s triple raid on businesses, landlords and workers – Telegraph
• UK oil industry ‘to face wave of company failures’ – Telegraph
• UK CHANCELLOR REMAINS DEFIANT IN IMPLEMENTING AUSTERITY – Pieria
• PUBLIC FINANCES IN ORDER? OSBORNE MISSES DEFICIT TARGET BY £72 BILLION – Pieria
• The useful Trojan horse of the UK productivity puzzle – VoxEU
• The unsubtle knife: Though the latest round of cuts will be shallower than billed, the British state is taking on a different shape – Economist
• Osborne’s £23bn from the back of the sofa – BBC, Peston
• UK growth hit by biggest drag from net trade on record – Telegraph

United States

• A Future-Oriented US Fiscal Policy – Project-Syndicate, Hubbard
• U.S. home prices jump in September by most in more than a year – LA Times
• US student loan borrowers are increasingly struggling to repay their education debt (2 charts) – RWER
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.9% year-over-year in September – Calculated Risk
• US Personal Spending Remains Soft In October – Capital Spectator
• The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income for October – Financial Sense
• Big banks accused of interest rate-swap fixing in U.S. class action suit – CNBC
• New Class Action Suit Over Swaps Trading Hits Wall Street – Fortune
• Highways Destroyed America’s Cities – Atlantic
• America Is Too Dumb for TV News – Rolling Stone, Taibbi …he makes some disturbing points and we wouldn’t rate any better than the Americans….
• Black Friday Retail Workers Try to Make the Most of a Shopping Slump – NY Times
• Despite Global Events, U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain Low – NY Times
• Detroit tries unconventional approach to restoring its housing market – Washington Post
• How the American middle class lost its taste for mindless consumerism – Quartz

Americas

• Deficits as far as the eye can see – Financial Post…does that sound like somewhere familiar?…
• Toronto property near public transit worth 30% more than other buildings, study finds – Financial Post
• Canada’s New Leadership Reverses Course on Climate Change – NY Times…so it wasn’t just TestosterTone making a dill of his nation?…
• Debt load has many Canadians ‘living on the edge,’ with high housing prices largely to blame: report – Financial Post…those whacky Canucks just keep copying everything we do!…
• Mexico courting Japanese parts suppliers – Nikkei Asian Review
• China-Latin America Relations: In Ecuador, Dependency On Beijing Financing Of Development Projects Raises Fears, Uncertainty For Some – IB Times
• Deep impact: Trouble at the most celebrated investment bank in the emerging markets – Economist
• The Brazilian Banking Blowup – Bloomberg

Terra Ponzinomicus

• Maintaining low dollar critical to avoiding recession after CAPEX dive: top economist – ABC
• Rio Tinto’s $2.6b expansion of bauxite operations in far north Queensland to create 1,400 permanent jobs – ABC
• Federal Government considering superannuation tax concessions, Treasurer says – ABC
• VDL sale: Broad support for foreign dairy buyer but senator flags food security concern – ABC
• Transparency and engagement needed by Chinese firms to counter Aussie fears – SCMP
• NAB chief sees Australia as ‘resilient’ amid China slowdown – Nikkei Asian Review…worth a look…
• Budget deficit narrowing is manna from heaven for Scott Morrison – Guardian, Kouk…just don’t mention automatic stabilisers or declining house prices…
• There is such a thing as wrong kind of growth – just look at Western Australia – Guardian, Jericho
• Japan ready to submit proposal for Australia submarine deal – CBS…will it involve actually building them here?…
• Vocation colleges to shut, leaving 12,000 disappointed students – Fairfax
• Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project’s first shipment ‘imminent’ – Fairfax
• ‘Catch up’ super contributions: a tax break for rich (old men) – The Conversation
• Woolies – not Masters of Risk – The Conversation
• Back to the people: Bill Shorten has held Labor together, but the party is still ignoring what voters want – The Monthly
• Foreign buyers jumping through more regulatory hoops in popular suburbs – Domainfax
• Port Phillip Bay seabed set to sail into private hands when port is leased – Fairfax
• GDP might be lower but it might not hurt – Fairfax, Gitto
• Calls for blood are not far away for BHP’s board – Fairfax, Maiden….he may be right here…
• When Lang Walker is selling property, the RBA should be worried – Fairfax, Pascoemeter
• NSW Planning Minister Rob Stokes reveals medium-density housing plan – Fairfax
• The price of being a global city: Sydney’s rent crisis – Fairfax

Commodities

• Currency moves to have big impact on agri-commodities in 2016 – FT.com
• The year of the Chinese metal bear – Reuters
• Fattest-Ever U.S. Cattle Herd Signals End to Record Beef Prices – Bloomberg
• Maximum pain for commodities. Are we there yet? – Reuters
• Chinese aluminum, nickel producers ask state to buy up surplus metal – Reuters
• Coffee traders eye market bottom amid commercial players’ net long – Reuters
• Copper’s price could rest on this: water supplies – Market Watch
• Can India revive the iron ore market? – CNBC
• Steel prices depend on ‘supply discipline’ – Mineweb…good luck with that…
• Why China’s steel mills won’t cut back on production – Mineweb
• TIN MARKET SET FOR 6,000 MT DEFICIT IN 2015, DEMAND 3% LOWER: ITRI – Platts
• US staking its rights in space – Mineweb
• Rio Tinto’s Coal Brush-Off – Bloomberg
• This British Bank Is Backing The Bullish Case For Oil – OilPrice.com
• Don’t Catch the Metals Knife – Bloomberg

Capital markets

• CalPERS fee disclosure raises question of whether private equity returns are worth it – LA Times
• Precious metals funds post biggest outflow in 17 weeks: BAML – Reuters
• Why 2015 Might Be Like 1937 for Stocks – WSJ
• As gold, platinum prices fall, investors flee precious metal funds – CNBC
• US Equities: Revenue Is King in 2016 – AB Global
• ECB Failure Ruins ‘Short of a Lifetime’ – Bloomberg
• Dark Pools Can’t Keep Themselves Clean – Bloomberg
• Middle-market muscles in on investment banking fees – Euromoney

Global Macro

• The Import of Exports – Project-Syndicate, Hausmann
• It Could Be Worse: Five Things to Be Thankful for in a Wobbly World Economy – Peterson Institute
• Ten Questions for the Global Economy – Economonitor…well worth a look…
• Dilemmas, Trilemmas and Difficult Choices – Economonitor
• Premature to call the bottom in emerging markets – SCMP
• Russian hydropower can help fight climate change in Asia – Nikkei Asian Review… interesting piece, also worth bearing in mind RusHydro’s USD bond offerings….
• Oversupply, weak demand depress container rates 60% – Nikkei Asian Review
• Corporate dollar debt key for emerging market resilience, OECD official says – Nikkei Asian Review
• Will interest rates be permanently lower? – VoxEU
• Expansionary or contractionary effects of capital inflows: It depends what kind – VoxEU
• Perils of central banks as policymakers of last resort – VoxEU
• Real exchange rates in conflict zones – Bruegel
• Macroprudential supervision: from theory to policy – Bruegel
• Global financial literacy – Economist
• POPULATION IMPLOSION: How Demographics Rule the Global Economy – WSJ…pretty good infographic and explainer…
• The Lingering Effects of the Financial Crisis – A Wealth of Common Sense
• Markets must get used to price quirks – FT.com
• Could Emerging Markets Rebound? – The Short Side of Long
• Econometrics and the ’empirical turn’ in economics – RWER…definitely something to cogitate on…
• How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go? – Zero Hedge
• A Heatmap Of Global CapEx ‘Shrinkage’ – Zero Hedge
• What liberals get wrong when they only focus on breaking up the big banks – Washington Post
• The Risk in Rolling Back Wall Street Reform – Bloomberg

Research

• Why are real interest rates so low? Secular stagnation and the relative price of investment goods(Pdf) – Bank of England
• Rational Exuberance Booms and Asymmetric Business Cycles (Pdf) – Suomen Panki
• The credit quality channel: modeling contagion in the interbank market (Pdf) – Bundesbank
• Should Monetary Policy Respond to Financial Conditions? – Liberty Street Economics, NY Fed
• The Effects of Wage Moderation: Can Internal Devaluations Work? – IMF
• Openness and Inequality: Distributional Impacts of Capital Account Liberalization – IMF
• FUNDAMENTALS AND THE VOLATILITY OF REAL ESTATE PRICES IN CHINA: A SEQUENTIAL MODELLING STRATEGY (Pdf) – HKIMR
• EFFECTIVENESS OF LOAN-TO-VALUE RATIO POLICY AND ITS TRANSMISSION MECHANISM – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG (Pdf) – HKIMR
• THE UNBEARABLE DIVERGENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE (Pdf) – Banco de Espana
• Effects of US Quantitative Easing on Emerging Market Economies (Pdf) – Dallas fed

…and furthermore…

• 50 Years Ago, ‘Unsafe at Any Speed’ Shook the Auto World – NY Times…legendary expose…
• Emerging Markets Attract Record $126 Billion in Clean Energy Investment – Economonitor
• Space tourism is closer to taking off, but how should it be regulated? – LA Times
• Smoking high strength cannabis may damage nerve fibres in brain – Guardian…more or less than morning TV?…
• Are U.S. malls ready for Paris-style terror attack? – CBS
• One concept will dominate the Paris climate talks, and it has nothing to do with the climate – Quartz
• How Company Culture Shapes Employee Motivation – HBR
• The Problem-Solving Process That Prevents Groupthink – HBR
• Douglass North, an economist’s historian – VoxEU
• Structure and change in economic history: The ideas of Douglass North – VoxEU

….and when you’ve finished all that…

• Bill Hicks: do the legendary comic’s jokes still stand up? – Guardian
• Drying up ‘Islamic State’ sources of financing – DW
• Is eating fat really bad for you? Here’s what the science says. – Vox
• Remember the Oceans! The most important consequence of the Paris climate talks will be the fate of the oceans. – Slate
• Why Can’t We Build a Splash-Proof Toilet? – Priceonomics
• Images From the 2016 Sony World Photography Awards – Atlantic…some magnificent images here….