“The countries that are still to develop are much smaller than China and India are, they are not, in most cases, starting from as far back on the development curve as China was in 1979 or India was in 1991, and most of them are much more self sufficient in commodities than China or India ever were.
From Saul Eslake at some conference:
So it could well be, in my view, that the commodities boom Australia has just experienced in the last 12 or so years is the last of its kind in human history unless unforeseen technological developments ordain otherwise.
Australia needs to broaden and deepen its economic development with Asia if it is to prosper from the next phase of Asian economic and social development. That means we need to increase our exports of agricultural commodities and services as well as maintain or improve our market share in minerals and energy commodities.
In the case of iron ore and coal in particular i don’t think we have seen the bottom of prices yet even though there may be some basis for being a bit more optimistic about the outlook for base metal prices.
In the case of coal Australia is not necessarily in the most favourable position in international cost curves, and maintaining Australia’s competitive position in coal and in other energy commodities, LNG among others, will be a major challenge for the boards and managements of Australian companies this year and for the forseeable future.
For God’s sake, put him in charge. My only quibble: we don’t need to “increase our exports of agricultural commodities and services as well as maintain or improve our market share in minerals and energy commodities”, we need to repair our competitiveness and let our markets do the rest whatever that is.
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