From Dumbfax:
Stephen Roberts, chief economist at Sydney-based Altair Asset Management, said the local economy was faring better compared with most of the world, with global growth set to remain stagnant at 2.8 per cent in 2016.
Mr Roberts listed four signs, albeit tentative, that investors should be encouraged by: the depreciating currency, the housing boom correcting rather than collapsing, the changing mix of the big banks’ loan books and strong employment numbers.
The optimistic note came as Olga Bitel, economist for Chicago-based fund manager William Blair said Australia was beating its Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development peers in capitalising on China’s economic transition.
While many Australians were disheartened by falling iron ore prices, which are caught in a global commodity rout amid weaker demand from China, exports of services have almost caught up with resources.
Good grief. Talk about jumping the shark. Here are the five reasons that this is complete poppycock:
- The depreciating currency needs to fall much further to have any impact while the terms of trade keeps falling, the mining capex cliff keeps steepening and the car industry closes.
- It’s far too early to judge whether the housing boom is correcting not collapsing but one thing you can be certain of is that if it only corrects then Australia will still be at severe risk of recession given the ongoing mining and manufacturing busts.
- The bank’s loan books have been changing for one month versus a four year binge in investment loans.
- Employment is OK, but not as strong as ABS numberwang, and it is still a weak labour market recovery relative to other cycles. Moreover, it is primarily being driven by the housing cycle which is now at minimum “correcting”.
- Services exports have not caught up with falling resources for fuck’s sake:
Pardon my French but come on!
