The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released housing finance data for the month of June, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% increase in the number of owner-occupied finance commitments over the month.
Arguably, the most important figure in the release is the number of owner-occupied housing finance commitments excluding refinancings, which registered a seasonally-adjusted 2.0% rise over the month, but remains some -11% below the five-year moving average level:
A look at the last three year’s finance commitments (excluding refinancings) shows just how depressed mortgage demand has been. Despite this month’s bounce, finance commitments remain well below the boom times of 2009:
Unfortunately, the ABS only provides the value of investor finance commitments. These were up 5% in June, reversing May’s -5% fall:
The one area where housing finance has been booming is refinancings, which have been in a strong uptrend since early-2010, and are above their five-year moving average, but have now fallen for three straight months:
This ABS release seems to contradict the RBA credit aggregates data for June, which registered the weakest quarterly and annual housing credit growth in the series’ 35-year history. One explanation could be that those with existing mortgages are repaying their loans down quickly, which is offsetting some of the new mortgage debt being created.
Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.
