ASX Shares Daily – 5th July

By Chris Becker

These daily updates need to be placed in context with the longer trends and drivers amidst the overall technical picture, so head to Macro Investor for a free trial. Former “Trading Week” readers will find it reborn asTechnicals“, published 8am each Monday morning.

 

 

 

 

Some days the market needs a conductor to bring it out of its low G note funk – and that’s what we got today as the ASX200 dragged itself out of a midday hole and finally closed down 3 points or 0.1% to 4169 points. With no American markets to “call a tune”, it was to be expected that today would rest on its own laurels. Can I mix up any more metaphors? Check out my analysis after the wrap at the bottom of the post.

Other Asian markets were less kind, the New Zealand NZ50 finished flat with no clear signal, whilst the Nikkei 225 also failing to follow through after its very strong bounce, but in another strange divergence, the Hang Seng was up 0.7% but the  Shanghai Comp remains sideways bearish, falling another 1.1%as I said yesterday, still not wanting to follow through alongside other commodities.

 

On currency markets, the Aussie remains flat, still just over resistance and the 200 day moving average (see chart below) but not wanting to breakout much further, whilst the Euro/USD cross continues to stay in the doldrums.

 

Meanwhile the battle between the world’s currency and anti-currency continues, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) holding on for now, whilst gold (USD)  was flat again throughout the Asian session, with a quiet night with no NYMEX/US trading, and still above the $1600 breakout, now at $1616USD.

Macro Investor subscribers (and they’re growing fast!) would know we’ve been watching the precious metal for a breakout medium term trade idea for awhile now, but nothing as yet….In AUD terms, it didn’t do too bad today, but remains stuck currently at $1576AUD per ounce rising slightly overnight.

In the debt markets today,  Aussie 10 year yields fell back nearly 11 basis points to 3.09%, the yield curve remaining sharply inverted. No breakout above the level I analysed in last week’s “Technicals” :

Australian Stocks

Not a lot of movement in that table to the left – except the health sector, up 1.2%, as it continues its bull market (mainly because of leader CSL – my pick as the top stock in the ASX50, but currently a “Hold”)

The big mover in the ASX8 (the big four miners and big four banks, seen in the table to the left) was the ANZ division of Megabank, which looks like its moved to a bullish sideways condition – note the chart below contains the Macro Investor trading system notes (except the most recent, for obvious reasons…):

 

On to the index – whilst we had a definitive breakout in the ASX200 yesterday, there has been no follow through, even though it remains above the trading range between 4000 and 4150:

Tonight

Its no so quiet tonight – the US markets will reopen, and they will watch the Bank of England announcement, with more QE expected, closely. This will be preceded by German manufacturer’s orders, and thereafter by the ECB itself, which may cut rates and spur this risk on move.

If that wasn’t enough, the all important US ADP employment numbers come out alongside another Tier 1 release – the ISM non-manufacturing index.

Don’t miss the overnight market updates by my colleague Greg McKenna, in MacroBusiness Morning.

Oh and here’s Bugs in all his glory – kids these days don’t know what they’re missing – that era’s cartoons were the best!


Til then, you can find me on Twitter here.

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Comments

  1. Question on Macro Investor. There is a weekly PDF being published on Monday. Will the content on other webpages be updated during the week or will they all be updated only on Monday? Just wondering if you guys are holding back your written article until Monday or publish it as soon as it has been written. I prefer the latter, of course. A week can be a long one for trading.

    • Hi VV – excellent question.

      Whilst we do manage the portfolio’s intraweek, including our trading calls and portfolio allocations, to forward these changes immediately as they occur would be an additional service at a much higher level than the current subscription cost, particularly the “trades”.

      We’ll see what sort of level of demand there is for that, given we’ve also had many requests for direct management of funds, and update you if we consider that a worthwhile service to extend.

      Hope that helps, thanks again for question. BTW, we will be operating a “Q and A” session next week here at MacroBusiness so you can talk to us about Macro Investor articles, ideas and opinions.

      Cheers

  2. Hey Prince,I think someone forgot to turn the security on to auto at MB,last night
    as is seems the Bug’s broke-out then run-a-bunny , and in viewed continues to push the Anz chart on to the Blogroll,there over wiping-out some 7 colors and some comment positions above…n,just lettn you know looks,’What’s up Doc..