Chris Becker

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Stocks are jumping out of the gate to start the trading week in a positive mood, following the surge on Wall Street on Friday night which gave a united signal to the risk complex to buy up (almost) everything.  Gold is back above the $1800USD per ounce level as other undollars rebound

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another divergence in risk on Friday with Asian share markets having a red session to finish the week, while despite a big surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US, Wall Street pulled a swifty and rocked the risk complex with another solid session. US inflation measures remained soft, helping add

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are falling going into the close here in Asia as the trading week ends and markets gear up for earnings season on Wall Street next week. Gold is just hanging on to the $1800USD per ounce level as other undollars feel the rebound of the stronger USD on the risk aversion trade. S&P futures

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Australian dollar falls as ANZ cuts GDP forecast

by Chris Becker Things aren’t looking up for the Australian dollar with ANZ out with another downgrade of local economic growth, looking at a 2% drop for the third quarter due to the lockdown in Victoria: with the whole of Melbourne metropolitan and Mitchell local government areas locked down, we estimate the rebound in activity

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Here comes the second wave of US COVID-19 deaths

by Chris Becker There was an unusual blip in the amount of Americans who died from COVID-19 reported on Tuesday, that could have been written off (as sick as that sounds) as the usual weekend anomaly, whereby deaths over the weekend – in this case a 3 day weekend due to 4th of July holiday

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment continues to grow negative – outside of tech stocks – with Wall Street falling in response to the US Supreme Court ruling on the fraud-in-chief’s tax returns and the rising death toll and positive caseload from coronavirus. The USD firmed overnight as did bond yields, while only oil fell in

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Daily iron ore price update (destocking)

by Chris Becker Iron ore continued its surge yesterday with spot Tianjin prices up above the $107 barrier, while 12month futures gained, but shorter term prices slipped alongside rebar and coking coal. Here’s the table and latest charts: Iron ore imports to China have fallen to their lowest level since October 2016, according to Steelhome,

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Macro Afternoon

It’s all green again across Asian stock markets, and despite rising COVID-19 cases in Tokyo, Japanese authorities are looking to ease restrictions within the nation, boosting economic hopes, while locally the chance of further lockdowns has had no impact on the ASX200, at least for today. Meanwhile, gold continues to hold above $1800USD per ounce

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment remained sour overnight until Wall Street opened, with traders (bots) jumping on optimistic comments from the Fed’s Bullard and hyper-deluded comments from VP Pence about the coronavirus outbreak in the southern US states. The USD sold off in response, despite European concerns over Brexit (remember that?) from Chancellor Merkel, which

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RBA Charts the COVID-19 Depression

by Chris Becker It’s my favourite time of the month – checking out the latest content from the RBA Chart Pack! Let’s dive in…. First it’s all about the GDP’s, all in the toilet for the biggest economies as COVID-19 bites: Meanwhile in Australia, the trend has been down for years: And in the last

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APRA to extend and pretend mortgages will be repaid

by Chris Becker APRA have given another reprieve in the fight to stop Australian households defaulting on their mortgages with another payment holiday/restructure period extension, pushing out the fantasy of mortgage repayments for another four months: The confirmation of the waiver follows the announcement that lenders will extend the repayment holidays of customers who have deferred

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Macro Afternoon

Outside China, risk sentiment is falling again with stock markets in retreat here in Asia with Eurostoxx and US futures looking to start poorly as well. The gold price remains static at just under the $1800USD per ounce level while other undollars are gaining with Euro and the Aussie dollar lifting while Yen becomes bid

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Gold surges toward decade high

by Chris Becker With yet another industrialised nation announcing a record government deficit (Canada this time with $300bn, close to our own $240bn), and central banks furiously papering up over massive cracks in the global economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, it’s no wonder that the Minsky Metal is on a tear, almost

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Global risk sentiment soured again overnight in response to more coronavirus fears, with Brazil’s autocratic Bolsanoro now infected, while US deaths spiked to a new daily high, almost reaching a thousand (although likely a lag from long weekend of little reporting). Wall Street slipped, pulling European stocks with them, while bond yields

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Daily iron ore price update (shipments slip)

by Chris Becker The iron ore complex played catchup to other risk markets with sizeable gains across spot and futures in China and on the SGX yesterday, although coking coal slipped slightly. Here’s the price matrix and daily charts: Iron ore shipments have slipped for the last week in China, helping support prices, down nearly

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Macro Afternoon

Sentiment swung back to hesitation this afternoon here in Asia with most bourses reversing course from its sharp rise to the start of the trading week, led by dual breakouts of coronavirus – both Tokyo and Victoria. The euphoria over the surge in Chinese shares is wearing off with US and Euro futures looking down

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RBA holds for July

by Chris Becker At its latest meeting the Reserve Bank has held its cash rate at the record 0.25% low. Australian dollar flitted immediately with the 69.50 level but is coming back after tapping out just below the 70 handle earlier today (and in time with my “Aussie could go to 80cents” post!) Reserve Bank

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Australian dollar going back to 80 cents?

by Chris Becker The COVID-19 pandemic seemed to be the last blow for the beleaguered Pacific Peso, dropping fast alongside other risk assets like stocks from 70 cents to 55 cents: But it has now fully “recovered” with an equally remarkable rally, now stabilising around the 69 handle against USD, while its cousin, the Kiwi

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US services ISM boosted to recovery levels

by Chris Becker Well, if you open up your economy again – and damn the COVID-19 torpedoes – you’re going to get a recovery, and that’s what the June non-manufacturing ISM print showed overnight, providing yet another catalyst for US stocks to head higher. The texture from ISM: The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business PMI

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets shot out the gate to start the week with fresh vigor, with more economic upside expectations overshadowing rising pandemic concerns across the US and other emerging countries.  The US services ISM survey showed a substantial increase although employment continued to lag, but this didn’t stop Wall Street bidding up everything

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Daily iron ore price update (port inventories)

by Chris Becker Iron ore lifted around 0.5% across the complex compared to the big gains in stocks in China yesterday, the exuberance capped somewhat by the rising port inventories and confirmation that Vale is ready to bring back its lost production in the next quarter. Here’s the price matrix and daily charts: More on

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Macro Afternoon

A surge in Chinese shares is spurring on risk appetites across the region, with stocks lifting strongly this afternoon, taking risk currencies like the Australian dollar with them but leaving gold and the ASX200 behind. The reason behind the catalyst is unclear, apart from a technical one – its a five year high for Chinese