By Chris Becker
These daily updates need to be placed in context with the longer trends and drivers amidst the overall technical picture, so head to Macro Investor for a free trial. Former “Trading Week” readers will find it reborn as “Technicals“, published 8.30am each Monday morning.
Today, at least for the ASX200, was for keeping heads above water, as consumer sentiment figures gave the local bourse a boost, other equity markets in Asia also were as tipsy turvy as a tipsy turvy thing. As you can see in the table opposite, the ASX200 closed down 1 point to finish flat, but was actually in positive territory around lunch time before going directionless for the rest of the session. Check out my daily technical analysis of the ASX 200 after the wrap at the bottom of the post.
The New Zealand NZ50 finished up 0.4%, whilst the Nikkei 225 was flat remaining below the closely watched 200 day moving average. The Hang Seng was also flat/slightly down – but the Shanghai Comp had a little jump as it teeters near its January lows just above 2145 points.
On currency markets, the Aussie saw a bit of strength intraday but is sideways on the daily charts, still battling with resistance and the 200 day moving average overhead at 1.025, although there is support at 1.015, whilst the Euro/USD cross is also stable for now, it remains in the doldrums (Macro Investor is short the EUR currently)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was sideways as gold (USD) has jumped in the afternoon session, after dropping more than $30USD overnight, now at $1575USD:
In AUD terms, it remains steady at $1541AUD per ounce as the sideways weakness looks like cracking into outright falls if it closes below $1526AUD – we are keeping a very close eye on gold in AUD terms, as this is a hedge within both our model portfolios.
Australian Stocks
It was Megabank plus Telstra (i.e the telecom sector) that lifted the materials out of today’s funk to close even stevens. I was right about my KC Signal – it ain’t reliable – as Telstra zoomed up another 1.3% today, looking extremely overbought at these levels. If I was using my very short term trading system (which is reluctantly in hiatus until they perfect cloning technology) I’d have a close tight stop at around 3.76 and booking some profits here… The big mover in the ASX8 (the big four miners and big four banks, seen in the table to the left) was Westpac (WBC) – and it looks to me that in the short term, I got it wrong again – I thought the banks looked shaky, but it appears from that “torque” is being applied to Megabank by way of lazy insto’s looking to park their money (your super) – and banks are numero uno leading into what could be a shaky or a surprising earnings season…
You can see in the chart above that financials are finding favour, as materials continue to sell off. Which is strange, because as I revealed in this mornings weekly Macro Investor investment meeting, its the material sector that has the most “buys” across the brokers/analysts (and sells? retail…..) Something to think about in the week’s ahead.
On to the index – the ASX200 continues to stay below the 4140 level – formely support but now resistance, along with its 50 day moving average, and is likely to stay in the 4040 to 4140 trading range until some sort of risk resolution:
Tonight
Tonight has 2 major data prints – German CPI – which has reported and continues to deflate, down -0.1% in June, still 1.7% year on year. Later tonight we get US trade balance figures which might shake things up a bit.
Don’t miss the overnight market updates by my colleague Greg McKenna, in MacroBusiness Morning. You can also find me rambling on Twitter here (and unlike some commentators, I’ll actually reply, if you ask nicely!)
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