By Chris Becker
These daily updates need to be placed in context with the longer trends and drivers amidst the overall technical picture, so head to Macro Investor for a free trial. Former “Trading Week” readers will find it reborn as “Technicals“, published 8.30am each Monday morning.
If it breaks this level, there is daylight below to the early 2009 GFC low to 1700 points – not a pretty fall, which is why the Trade we have on has a risk of only 0.5% with a stop below the January low. Remember, risk management trumps entry decisions – ALWAYS!
On currency markets, the Aussie continues to stay weak on the daily charts, still battling with resistance and the 200 day moving average overhead at 1.025, whilst the Euro/USD cross is stable for now, it remains in the doldrums.
Meanwhile the battle between the world’s currency and anti-currency continues, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) and gold (USD) trading places again – the latter flat again throughout the Asian session, now at $1585USD, whilst in AUD terms, it remains steady at $1556AUD per ounce as the sideways weakness continues.
In the debt markets today, Aussie 10 year yields fell further and cracked 3%, rejecting resistance once more as the yield curve remaining sharply inverted.
An onslaught of industrial production figures from Euroland tonight, along with secondary US retail sales data as the Q2 earnings season in the US accelerates. We’ve already had the Italians report – and finally its a positive print for the worlds 7th largest economy – up 0.8% month on month! Still down 6.9% y-o-y, but at least this decline seems to be decelerating, although last month’s print was revised down.
As I said at the top, I do a full technical analysis of all major macro markets each week called “Technicals” at Macro Investor, which used to be called “Trading Week”. Even if you’re not a trader, this can give you an insight into how world markets are travelling, since our stock, debt and housing markets (still mainly financed by European banks and Chinese resource demand) follow the rest of the world.
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