Bulk commodities still mixed

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In recent days we seen a number cross-currents in the bulk commodities. On the positive half of the ledger, the spot iron price (white) and 12 month swaps have based (yellow) , as have Chinese steel prices (purple and green). The recovery is quite muted as this point, no doubt reflecting generally weak global economic conditions weighing on a clear shift to stimulate in China. Coking coal too has been stable just under $220. But thermal coal (red) continues to tank, down another 5% last week to $84.81. Thermal coal was a key driver in Australia’s terms of trade boom through 2007/8 and it is still historically very elevated:

Some of the slide is because of weak Asian demand, but its also because of increased coal and LNG supply. There a lesson here for all the bulks in the future.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.