US Economy

DXY was stable Friday night: AUD ran wild as iron ore crashed.

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 205,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February (with a range of estimates between 152,000 to 230,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.0%.

DXY was up a little last night: AUD fell against DMs: But rose against EMs: Gold was hit: Oil fell: Dirt fell: Miners fell: EM stocks fell: Junk fell: Treasuries were stable: And bunds: Stocks gained a little: Stocks were helped by possible exceptions in Trump tariff war.

As Cohn goes so Navarro rises, via Bloomberg: The Trump administration is considering clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S.

Via the FT: US companies are on track this year to return a record $1tn to shareholders, as Donald Trump’s tax cuts prompt boards to boost buybacks and dividends at a faster rate than their capital expenditure, research and development budgets or wage bills.

The WSJ has some concern for a steepening climb in Libor interbank lending rates: Libor has been rising for the last two years as the Federal Reserve has tightened interest rates.

Cross-posted from Tim Duy: Fed speakers continue to reiterate that policy remains on a gradual path of tightening.So far, the inflation data and brightening economy has more emboldened their commitment to gradual rate hikes than a faster pace of hikes.

My brain hurts: US President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that arming teachers could help prevent massacres such as last week’s mass shooting at a Florida high school.

Goldman says so: Marina Grushin: Welcome to the Top of Mind podcast.

DXY was strong Friday night after hitting new lows.

Via Moody’s: Declining Default Rate Offsets Drag of Higher Interest Rates Corporate bond yield spreads have been relatively steady throughout recent equity market tumult.

DXY cratered to new lows last night: But the AUD fell as well against everything: Including EMs: All it took was one thinning jobs report.

Meh, from Westpac: Market inflation expectations have trended higher over the past two years.

And in a boom be bullish!

Goldman on firming US inflation before tonight’s CPI: Using our top-down and bottom-up core PCE models, we project that both macroeconomic fundamentals as well as sector-specific factors are likely to push core inflation meaningfully higher this year.