US Economy


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. The consensus is for 500 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.7%. First, there are a wide range of estimates.  For example, from Merrill Lynch economists: “We look for November jobs report


The US third virus wave is peaking

Good news. Cases in the US third wave appear to be peaking: Both cases and hospitalisations are seeing a flattening curve. Deaths will climb for a few more weeks. All regions bar the north east have improved: Cases are falling where lockdowns are strongest, as you’d expect. There must be an asterisk over this data


Inside Janet Yellen’s head is an enormous dove

From a recent speech by Janet Yellen, incoming US Treasury Secretary: Extreme economic events have often challenged existing views of how the economy works and exposed shortcomings in the collective knowledge of economists. To give two well-known examples, both the Great Depression and the stagflation of the 1970s motivated new ways of thinking about economic


Measuring the US fiscal cliff

Via BofA: Fiscal cliff economics • Many pandemic-aid programs in the CARES Act are set to expire at the end of the year without action from Congress. • The expiration of federal UI programs—PUA and PEUC—alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be additional headwinds. • We expect


US virus deaths launch

Sadly the pandemic is about to enter its next dire phase. Cases are still surging along with hospitalisations and, as they flounder, deaths: Smoothed doesn’t look any better: The mortality rate has probably bottomed now as the death lag closes: El Trumpo‘s revenge is about to enter its final dark days as the economy remains


Fox News not fake enough for El Trumpo

This is a classic for the Murdoch haters out there. The Fox News Frankenstein has come back to eat it: [email protected] daytime ratings have completely collapsed. Weekend daytime even WORSE. Very sad to watch this happen, but they forgot what made them successful, what got them there. They forgot the Golden Goose. The biggest difference


El Trumpo siphons cash from election defence fund

El Trumpo doesn’t miss a trick. At Reuters: As President Donald Trump seeks to discredit last week’s election with baseless claims of voter fraud, his team has bombarded his supporters with requests for money to help pay for legal challenges to the results: “The Left will try to STEAL this election!” reads one text. But


El Trumpo sore loser tantrum spreads

So far, US institutions have done well. But there are worrying signs that El Trumpo is hanging on. Via Nine: President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer has confirmed proceedings have begun to sue over alleged “fraudulent ballots”, claiming people will be “shocked” by the findings. Rudy Giuliani tweeted that the Trump campaign has “sued to invalidate


Fake Left Biden readies immigration shock for US workers

Earlier this year, the Economic Policy Institute released research proving that the United States’ temporary skilled visa scheme (H-1B) has been ruthlessly exploited by employers to undercut American wages. The analysis was based on the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, which constructs a distribution of wages for each occupation in a specific


Previewing US jobs

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%. • Decennial Census: The decennial Census will subtract 147,311 temporary jobs. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed a gain of 365,000 private sector jobs, well below


Is El Trumpo a facist?

Thankfully it appears that Donald El Trumpo is going to fail in his bid to steal the US election. But the attempt throws up an interesting question. What kind of leader is he and where does he fit in the history of political ideology? We know that El Trumpo is a classic populist. That is,


El Trumpo’s virus revenge takes shape

As if the American people have not suffered enough now they must endure El Trumpo’s virus revenge as cases, hospitalisations and deaths all skyrocket: The moving averages are not pretty: As the mortality rate bottoms out: I have every confidence that EL Trumpo will spend his last few months in office aiming to make this


Trump polling surges as he readies coup

He’s on a roll nationally: Especially in the battleground states: Trump’s crucial wins in Florida and Pennsylvania have tightened:   Betting is unmoved: Probably sensibly. But if you’re looking for a clean result then El Trumpo will disappoint, at Axios: President Trump has told confidants he’ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like


How bad is the US virus?

How bad is the US virus? Bad: It looks no better smoothed: Where there has been some improvement is the mortality rates: Hospitalisations have fallen as a ratio of cases versus both first and second waves.  Deaths lag by a month so that ratio is likely to bottom here and begin to rise again. There


Presidential race tightens

Latest polls. At the headline: Battlegrounds: Betting: What if the polls are as wrong this week as they were in 2016? Biden wins, by 538: With the virus still gutting Trump’s interior heartland, it looks over for the White House: More interesting is the senate which has a less complete overlap between swing states and


Virus kills Trump’s chances

More bad news for El Trumpo overnight with The Economist endorsing Joe Biden: Our cover this week  sets out why, if we had a vote, it would go to Joe Biden. The country that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided. The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and


How will Trump launch his coup?

Ther latest poll averages have Biden still cruising to a win at the headline level: And battleground states: Plus betting markets: The Economist has also declared its polling for a Democratic senate: We’re all jaded about polls. Watch the below video from FiveThirtyEight. It captures what happened to 2016 polls and how they’ve reformed their


El Trumpo builds polling momentum

The latest polling averages are better El Trumpo: Battleground states have closed the gap a little: Betting is unimpressed: 538 sees an even larger landslide: Probably rightly. There is always a late swing to the incumbent but the gap remains to large and the virus resurgence cannot help El Trumpo: He only has until next


El Trumpo readies election sabotage

This is not and will not cheer markets. Obviously, El Trumpo’s internal polling is saying the same thing as everybody else’s. Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020 As I noted yesterday, El Trumpo is


Borat stings Guliani

I know it’s PR but…well…it’s Borat: The news is appropriate enough: [Rudi] Giuliani went to the hotel room thinking he was being interviewed about the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response. The young woman is flirtatious with him and invites him to the bedroom, which is rigged with hidden cameras. Giuliani then asks for her phone number


Trump closes the gap!

Via RealClear some movement to the incumbent at the headline: Battlegrounds not so much: Betting still all over the joint:   No gap closure at FiveThirtyEight: An embarrassingly Trump worshipping Zero Hedge makes a big deal of registrations: Last week, we published an article detailing a warning from JPMorgan’s top quant Marko Kolanvoci to all those expecting