US Economy

After the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of illegally silencing former prostitute Stormy Daniels, election odds have first swung away from Trump, then back to unchanged.

Goldman with the wrap of US betting markets.

Goldman is less dovish than some. nWe expect a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.61% (vs. 3.6% consensus). We expect a 0.37% increase in April headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.42% (vs. 3.4% consensus).

Goldman with the update.

Goldman with the note. We expect a 0.27% increase in March core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.70% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.29% increase in March headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.37% (vs. 3.4% consensus).

HSBC with the note.

The Market Ear with the latest equity positioning.

Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zenter has been good on the Fed in recent times.

The big one for tomorrow via Goldman Sachs. We expect a 0.32% increase in February core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.71% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.44% increase in February headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.15% (vs. 3.1% consensus).

This is not good: The US supreme court agreed on Wednesday to take up the unprecedented claim that Donald Trump has absolute immunity from prosecution in the criminal case over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, throwing into jeopardy whether it goes to trial before the 2024 election.

OER is the core of the bullish equity market trade.

BofA is good at it. A“good-enough”report The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report should show ongoing progress on inflation. We forecast headline and core CPI rose by 0.2% m/m (0.16% unrounded) and 0.3% (0.29% unrounded) respectively.

US bank lending continues to putative recovery: Large and small: Year on year is still bouncing along the bottom: SLOOS is increasingly supportive as well.

UBS with the note.

US bank credit is off and running: Large and small: Yea on year has bottomed: There is a problem ahead.

US inflation is done. Goldman: The core PCE price index rose 0.17% month-on-month in December, which lowered the year-on-year rate to 2.93% (down from a peak of 5.57%).

It’s been obvious for ages that Trump would win the GOP nomination.

US bank credit is approaching a critical milestone going backwards: The pivot point is March when the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program is installed after SVB last year expires.

TS Lombard with the note.

Morgan Stanley with the note. Core inflation moves sideways in December, at 0.28%M (vs 0.28%M prior, and 0.2%M consensus).

US shares rose and bond yields fell sharply after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signalled that its policy tightening of the last two years is at an end.