US Economy

41

White or orange, gasping Trump goes home

He didn’t look great yesterday but he’s going home regardless: Looks like he may have brushed on some extra orange foundation before leaving (missed a bit around the edges): And can he breath? Trump looks like he is gasping for air pic.twitter.com/4k2v4Jxlir — Brennan Murphy (@brenonade) October 5, 2020 Not a hoax. Who released this

74

What happens to the Australian dollar if Trump dies?

DXY was stable Friday night: The Australian dollar was weak: Gold eased: Oil crashed: Base metals were mixed: Miners did OK: EMs fell: Junk did OK: The yield curve steepened as the “blue wave” becomes a reality: Stocks fell sharply, especially growth: In news, US jobs were pretty weak relative to expectations. The bigger news was,

182

Donald Trump tests positive for COVID-19

US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania have both tested positive for COVID-19 and have been isolated in quarantine: Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020 This came after the

8

Presidential debate fact checked

Via the BBC: Trump: “We built the greatest economy in history” Verdict: That’s not right – there have been times in US history when the economy was stronger. Before the coronavirus outbreak, President Trump claimed to have generated historic economic growth. It’s true the economy was doing well before the pandemic – continuing a trend

56

US headed into virus third wave

This is the rolling agony that Psycho Creighton and the IPA would inflict upon us if they could. Rolling waves of virus and death: As the economy opens then shuts then opens then shuts: It looks very much like the US is headed into its third wave as winter approaches. Expect another economic downdraft to

178

Biden wins presidential debate

I didn’t think that there was any clear winner in the debate. But that is a win for Joe Biden given he is comfortably ahead in the polls: As well, Trump’s childish antics were energetic but not rational. With 200k dead Americans owing to virus mismanagement, it is my view that the polity will be

2

US wealthy focussed on “cash conservation”

Via Citi: Citi Private Bank today released results from a survey led by the Private Capital Group, providing a rare insight into the thinking of some of the world’s sophisticated family offices and investors during an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In one of the private banking industry’s most comprehensive polls* of investor sentiment since the onset

97

The Economist predicts Biden landslide

Via Crikey: It takes a brave publication these days to claim an authoritative prediction for November’s US election. The Economist has combined polling and demographic and economic data into a model developed with Columbia University political scientists Andrew Gelman and Merlin Hedemann. And it’s currently predicting a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The model is currently predicting 333 electoral

129

Biden still comfortably leads Trump

Via News: A data scientist who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 says the US President is currently on track to win again. Professor Bela Stantic is the founder and director of Griffith University’s Big Data and Smart Analytics Lab, where he analyses social media data and sentiment to predict

5

Dalio drops dollar drivel

Ray Dalio at Bloomie: Meh. There’s a difference between cyclical deflation of a currency and structural. Dalio is about two hundred years too early by confusing the first and second. Perhaps because he is so biased towards China. Recall this hogwash: To refresh your memory, the chart below shows the relative powers of the leading

19

Trump boat parade sinks

Via FTAlphaville: Alphaville does not have an opinion on the political effectiveness of boat parades. Putting a Trump flag in a rod holder and motoring around on the weekend isn’t any sillier than putting a sticker on a car bumper and driving to work during the week. And the Trump flags are, legally, bumper stickers.

29

Trump betting odds plunge

It’s looking more like US presidential betting markets are today tied up with stock market liquidity: As said last week, I wonder if there is some relationship between stock market gains and those plumping for Trump, beyond simple sentiment. The polls are still strongly blue:   Though Trump has gained in swing states: I still

32

Betting odds surge to Trump

A bit silly in my book: Polling has lifted a bit: I wonder if the betting markets aren’t a little swayed by the broader stock market bubble in their own case of reverse Trump derangement syndrome. There’ll be some significant crossover in the punters. The virus is helping so there’s some support for the betting

170

Fake news alert. Bumbling Biden video edition

We owe readers an apology. Yesterday’s Twitter-sourced bumbling Biden video was fake news (h/t Wobbegong): fuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuckfuck pic.twitter.com/jnPhvE2MAz — Bes🌹 (@besf0rt) August 31, 2020 Buzzfeed with the scoop of what’s going on The White House and President Trump’s reelection campaign on Monday circulated two videos that had been manipulated to negatively portray presidential candidate Joe Biden.

3

Stephen Roach: US headed for double dip recession

Via Stephen Roach: The double dip is not a dance. It is the time-honored tendency of the US economy to relapse into recession after a temporary recovery. Over the years, it has happened far more often than not. Notwithstanding frothy financial markets, which currently are discounting the nirvana of an uninterrupted V-shaped recovery, there is

35

Betting markets charge Trump

The gap is closing fast: There’s still no comparable movement in polling: Perhaps betting markets are focussed on improving pandemic numbers, violent BLM protests and daily and material China-bashing. Of these, only the last looks like a Trump advantage to me. The first two look more like his fault. I remain of the view that

20

US virus cases falling, or just tests?

There have been state shutdowns of various degree to stop the second wave: But there is also this: The peaks coincide. I can’t find material suggesting this is the result of the supply of tests being limited, despite President Trump declaring he wanted just that at his Tulsa rally. Perhaps Republicans took him at his

72

Why Trump will win again

Via Thomas Greene at Medium: The Bronx of my childhood was a paradise. My street ran parallel to a section of the old Croton Aqueduct, by then long disused, which we kids called the Ackey. Along its banks grew trees and bushes and wild flowers forming a ribbon of thicket in which we played, and

120

Biden picks Harris as VP

by Chris Becker The US presidential race heated up overnight with presumptive Democratic nominee ex-Vice President Joe Biden picking Senator Kamala Harris, fulfilling his promise of a female VP choice. More from BBC: A year ago, the California senator had surged to the front of a crowded field of candidates on the back of a

7

US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 1.58 million non-farm payroll jobs (+1.47 million private sector), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.5%. The usual indicators are somewhat useless again this month due to the

32

How El Trumpo can win the election

Via the FT: For Mr Trump to exploit this opportunity, he would need to drop his offensive tributes to symbols and leaders of the Confederacy and instead focus attention on what has been dubbed “cancel culture”. This cause was launched by young progressives who call out or boycott public figures for objectionable behaviour. But many other

12

US economy sinks deeper into COVID-depression

A little US economy chartathon for you. The consumer is operating at about 95% 2019 levels: Some areas are crushed, others better: Supply-side is rebounding but from very low levels: Business is buggered: And employment trashed: Fiscal is vital lifeline: As recovery slides away:      On increased lockdowns: As virus runs riot: Not exactly

49

Trump sets up tilt at tyranny

Via the AFR: Donald Trump may not accept the results of the forthcoming presidential election, he has said, setting the stage for an epic showdown in November. In a wild and contentious interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News, broadcast on Sunday (AEST), the President said he was “not a good loser” and was fully

11

US economy slumps into w-shaped depression

The US consumer has choked. Michigan Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment retreated in the first half of July due to the widespread resurgence of the coronavirus. The promising gain recorded in June was reversed, leaving the Sentiment Index in early July insignificantly above the April low (+1.4 points). Following the steepest two-month decline on record, it