US Economy


Stay long King dollar

Nordea with the note: We warned back in September how lockdowns would become relevant again within a matter of months despite right about every politician declaring victory against Covid-19. We currently see targeted measures against those who remain unvaccinated across Europe to combat “the pandemic of the unvaccinated”, but these measures are very unlikely to work wonders


Why are Americans miserable?

BofA with the note: In the late-1960s, Arthur Okun created a simple statistic to capture the cost of stagflation. His“misery index” simply added the unemployment rate to headline inflation. Over time the index dropped off the radar screen, but it may be time for a comeback. Tomorrow both we and the consensus expect year-over-year CPI


US growth hurtles off a cliff

The Fed’s GDPNow is hurtling off a cliff: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter


Inside US inflation

BofA talks us through it: Rents surge pointing to stronger persistent inflationCore CPI rose 0.24% mom in September, bouncing back from the 0.1%rise in August. This kept the % yoy rate steady at 4.0% (4.03% unrounded) yoy. Headline inflation rose0.41% mom, which bumped up % yoy to 5.4% from 5.3%. Energy prices soared 1.3%mom and


Why the Fed will taper on the oil shock while others won’t

Deutsche looks at the role of oil in central bank thinking: The financial world is trying to work out what the implications are for the energy price shocks we are seeing and whether central banks should tighten policy as a result or keep policy loose to reflect possible demand destruction that it might eventually bring.


Will the US government shut down?

Goldman with the note: Assuming that Republicans do not vote for a debt limit suspension in the near-term, this seems likely to come to head in the second half of October. The deadline is not entirely clear, but we think it is most likely to fall in late October. We expect the Treasury to provide


Goldman: Debt limit “collision course?”

Goldman with the note: House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer have announced that they plan to move forward with legislation that ties an extension of government spending authority (a “continuing resolution”) with a suspension of the debt limit.  A vote in the House looks likely this week. Republican leaders have reiterated their opposition to


What will a debt ceiling fight hurt?

Goldman with the note: We estimate Congress will need to raise the debt limit by mid-October, though it is possible the Treasury might be able to operate under the current limit until late October. It is possible, though not likely, that the Treasury might be able to continue to make all scheduled payments until sometime


And now for an American debt limit shock?

Goldman with the note: Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders this morning (Sep. 8) indicating that the the Treasury will exhaust its cash and extraordinary measures “during the month of October”. This is in line with our expectations, though slightly sooner than the “October or November” timing that the Congressional Budget Office


Goldman: Biden stimulus on track

Goldman with the note: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) has attracted substantial attention with an op-edin the Wall Street Journal regarding his views on upcoming fiscal legislation. In it, he calls for a “strategic pause” on consideration of the $3.5 trillion/10 years budget reconciliation legislation, which Democratic leaders hope to assemble in committees over the


Goldman: US jobs to miss

Goldman with the note: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 500k in August, below consensus of +725k. While the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant. On the positive side, we expect the reopening of schools


US growth crash begins

Morgan Stanley with the note: We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections


US Delta wave peaking

BofA with the note: Recent Covid developments have been somewhat encouraging. Weekly case growth in the US has dropped to around 5%. Cases appear to be at or close to the peak in some states–most notably Florida–that were hit the earliest and the hardest by the Delta wave. Yet we think the situation is likely


American renters prepare for eviction

Goldman with the note: With the Supreme Court striking down the federal eviction moratorium and with most state-level restrictions set to expire over the next month, we explore how sharply evictions could rise under current policy, and we estimate the potential impact on the economy. Despite a severe recession, evictions actually declined during the coronacrisis


US fiscal stimulus marches forward

Morgan Stanley with the note: As Congress reconvenes, we expect progress to our base case of more fiscal expansion and identify key risks to our view. Recent news on spending plans offer hints on bill structure. We adjust our deficit growth estimates to~$1tr over five years and~$1.5tr over 10, but as low ramp in year


Is Fed taper coming or not?

Is Fed taper coming or not? Goldman says it is. Or does it? The Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will take place this Friday. The theme of the conference is “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy.” Chair Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at 10am EST on Friday that will be


Why the Fed is so keen to taper

Morgan Stanley with the note: July jobs report delivers evidence of substantial further progress. The rates market took notice and bonds sold off hard with 10-year Treasury yields reclaiming the 200-day moving average. Equity markets took their cue from this move in rates with the Russell2000 up and the Nasdaq down. Cyclicals had their best


US moves towards megastimulus

Credit Agricole with the note: The stronger than expected NFP report on Friday boosted the USD across the board as it seemingly helped the Fed move closer to QE taper and policy normalization. Indeed, the data likely alleviated some of the officials’ recent worries that a jobless recovery in the US could compromise their inability


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for 900 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%. There were 850,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 5.9%. This graph shows the job losses